估值模型EXCEL模板.xls

1、最新修改增加了FCFE估值、DDM估值、APV估值、EVA估值和AE估值。原先的估值對應(yīng)FCFF估值。其他估值模型有些數(shù)是鏈接到FCFF的，因此FCFF的估值要做全更改了自由現(xiàn)金流定義EBIT（1-所得稅率）折舊資本支出非現(xiàn)金性流動資本變化預(yù)測前首先需要自己輸入的數(shù)據(jù)3主營收入及成本：各公司收入及成本的預(yù)測方法不盡相同，需要分析師自己做4預(yù)測假設(shè)：各種假設(shè)條件5固定資產(chǎn)預(yù)測：歷史折舊和攤銷7損益表及利潤分配：2003-2004A利潤數(shù)據(jù)8資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表：2003-2004歷史數(shù)據(jù)7損益表及利潤分配、8資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表：無公式的單元格需要手動填入，如一些特殊會計科目DCF估值（FCFF）：分析日期、股本結(jié)

2、構(gòu)，假設(shè)條件中的“第二階段增長率、長期增長率、應(yīng)付債券利率、”。注意：第二階段(2010-2017)年數(shù)不可更改。其他估值模型：各假設(shè)條件（第二階段年數(shù)也不可更改）11輸出結(jié)果：2003-2004年經(jīng)營活動現(xiàn)金流量、投資活動現(xiàn)金流量、融資活動現(xiàn)金流量更多免費財務(wù)資料下載，請到：http:/增加了FCFE估值、DDM估值、APV估值、EVA估值和AE估值。原先的估值對應(yīng)FCFF估值。其他估值模型有些數(shù)是鏈接到FCFF的，因此FCFF的估值要做全DCF估值（FCFF）：分析日期、股本結(jié)構(gòu)，假設(shè)條件中的“第二階段增長率、長期增長率、應(yīng)付債券利率、”。注意：第二階段(2010-2017)年數(shù)不可更改。

3、 估估值值過過程程中中所所用用的的固固定定參參數(shù)數(shù)參參數(shù)數(shù)數(shù)數(shù)值值無風(fēng)險利率Rf5.00%平均風(fēng)險股票必要報酬率Rm11.00%一般情景預(yù)測歷史數(shù)據(jù)區(qū)名名稱稱2 20 00 02 22 20 00 03 3產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品品分分產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品品收收入入尿素收入32,261.0832,356.92DMF收入5,800.3724,055.91甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品收入7,048.498,786.03醋酸收入尿素收入增長率0.30%DMF收入增長率314.73%甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品收入增長率24.65%醋酸收入增長率分分產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品品價價格格市場尿素月均價1,261.001,384.00市場DMF月均價市場甲醇月

4、均價1,842.002,396.00醋酸月均價尿素價格上漲幅度9.75%DMF價格上漲幅度#DIV/0!甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等價格上漲幅度30.08%醋酸價格上漲幅度分分產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品品產(chǎn)產(chǎn)量量尿素產(chǎn)量增長率-8.62%DMF產(chǎn)量增長率#DIV/0!甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品等化工品產(chǎn)量增長率-4.17%醋酸產(chǎn)量增長率0.00尿素產(chǎn)量DMF產(chǎn)量甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品等化工品產(chǎn)量醋酸產(chǎn)量主主要要產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品品收收入入合合計計（萬萬元元）45,109.9465,198.86其它產(chǎn)品收入（萬元）0.000.00其它產(chǎn)品占主營收入比例0.00%0.00%主主營營業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)務(wù)收收入入（萬萬元元）45,11065,199

5、調(diào)調(diào)整整比比例例0.00%0.00%主主營營業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)務(wù)收收入入（萬萬元元） 調(diào)調(diào)整整后后45,11065,199主營收入增長率%44.5%主主營營業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)務(wù)成成本本預(yù)預(yù)測測2002200220032003尿素利潤6,969.755,923.59DMF利潤1473.165494.36甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品利潤838.852,218.79醋酸利潤尿素毛利率21.60%18.31%DMF毛利率25.40%22.84%甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品毛利率11.90%25.25%醋酸毛利率主營業(yè)務(wù)利潤9281.7613636.74主營業(yè)務(wù)利潤增長率46.92%主主營營業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)務(wù)毛毛利利率率20.58%20.9

6、2%子公司收入預(yù)測并并表表子子公公司司股股權(quán)權(quán)比比例例20022003子公司利潤預(yù)測并并表表子子公公司司股股權(quán)權(quán)比比例例20022003合合計計少少數(shù)數(shù)股股東東權(quán)權(quán)益益調(diào)調(diào)整整后后少少數(shù)數(shù)股股東東權(quán)權(quán)益益顯性期預(yù)測2 20 00 04 42 20 00 05 52006E2006E2007E2007E2008E2008E2009E2009E44,671.0366,824.0099,801.64109,033.30137,763.57157,050.4740,632.0945,839.0075,634.35104,224.13114,646.55108,914.2214,044.4422,559

7、.0023,574.1629,467.6932,414.4632,414.4636,000.00111,600.0038.06%49.59%49.35%9.25%26.35%14.00%68.91%12.81%65.00%37.80%10.00%-5.00%59.85%60.63%4.50%25.00%10.00%0.00%1,653.001,855.721,911.391,815.821,725.031,638.780.000.000.000.000.002,800.003,904.323,709.103,709.103,709.103,709.106,000.006,200.0019.44

8、%12.26%3.00%-5.00%-5.00%-5.00%#DIV/0!-13.22%10.00%6.00%0.00%-5.00%16.86%39.44%-5.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%15.59%33.25%45.00%15.00%33.00%20.00%#DIV/0!30.00%50.00%30.00%10.00%0.00%36.79%15.19%10.00%25.00%10.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.006.0018.0099,347.56135,222.00199,010.15242,725.12320,824.58409,979.150.000.000.

9、000.000.000.000.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%99,348135,222199,010242,725320,825409,9790.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%99,348135,222199,010242,725320,825409,97952.4%36.1%47.2%22.0%32.2%27.8%2 20 00 04 42 20 00 05 52006E2006E2007E2007E2008E2008E2009E2009E8,669.1013,749.0021,332.5423,305.8129,446.8833,569

10、.459652.256883.0015210.0724758.6927234.5624579.19歷史數(shù)據(jù)區(qū)2,529.404,762.004,976.295,307.125,837.845,837.840.008,551.8925,185.3019.41%20.57%21.37%21.37%21.37%21.37%23.76%15.02%20.11%23.76%23.76%22.57%18.01%21.11%21.11%18.01%18.01%18.01%23.76%23.76%22.57%20850.7525394.0041518.9053371.6271071.1789171.7852.

11、90%21.79%63.50%28.55%33.16%25.47%20.77%18.78%20.86%21.99%22.15%21.75%20042005E2006E2007E2008E2009E20042005E2006E2007E2008E2009E一般情景預(yù)測1 1、經(jīng)經(jīng)營營活活動動2003200420052006E2007E主營業(yè)務(wù)收入同比增長率44.53%52.38%36.11%47.17%21.97%主營業(yè)務(wù)成本 /主營業(yè)務(wù)收入79.08%79.23%81.22%79.14%78.01%主營業(yè)務(wù)稅金及附加 /主營業(yè)務(wù)收入（營業(yè)稅率）0.50%0.55%0.49%0.49%0.49%

12、營業(yè)費用 /主營業(yè)務(wù)收入1.12%1.47%1.41%1.41%1.41%管理費用 /主營業(yè)務(wù)收入3.22%2.49%1.94%1.94%1.94%實際稅率23.95%17.16%19.63%19.63%19.63%股利分配比例25.44%19.86%9.51%9.51%9.51%2 2、營營運運資資金金2003200420052006E2007E貨幣資金 /主營業(yè)務(wù)收入49.67%34.84%27.05%27.05%27.05%應(yīng)收帳款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對于主營業(yè)務(wù)收入)0.010.000.000.000.00應(yīng)收票據(jù)周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對于主營業(yè)務(wù)收入)6.381.665.055.055.05存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天

13、數(shù)(相對于主營業(yè)務(wù)成本)38.2247.4248.1848.1848.18應(yīng)付票據(jù)周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對于主營業(yè)務(wù)成本)0.000.001應(yīng)付帳款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對于主營業(yè)務(wù)成本)39.31116.7245.4645.4645.46預(yù)付帳款增加 /主營業(yè)務(wù)成本2.29%-0.60%1.16%1.16%1.16%待攤費用增加 /營業(yè)費用和管理費用-0.13%0.03%2.06%2.06%2.06%預(yù)收帳款(負(fù)債)增加 /主營業(yè)務(wù)收入1.62%0.91%3.33%3.33%3.33%預(yù)提費用增加 /營業(yè)費用和管理費用0.00%0.00%0.49%0.49%0.49%其他流動資產(chǎn)增加 /主

14、營業(yè)務(wù)收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他流動負(fù)債增加 /主營業(yè)務(wù)收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他長期資產(chǎn)增加 /主營業(yè)務(wù)收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他長期負(fù)債增加 /主營業(yè)務(wù)收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%壞帳準(zhǔn)備 /應(yīng)收帳款0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%短期投資跌價準(zhǔn)備#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%0.00%存貨跌價準(zhǔn)備(含工程虧損準(zhǔn)備)0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%長期投資減值準(zhǔn)備#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DI

15、V/0!0.00%0.00%固定資產(chǎn)減值準(zhǔn)備0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%在建工程減值準(zhǔn)備0.00%#DIV/0!0.00%0.00%0.00%3 3、資資本本性性投投資資a、假定固定資產(chǎn)采用直直線線法法折舊b、現(xiàn)有固定資產(chǎn)和新建固定資產(chǎn)的折舊年限平均為12年殘值率為5.00%年折舊率=7.92%c、各年的固定資產(chǎn)投資如下：2 20 00 03 32 20 00 04 42 20 00 05 52006E2006E2007E2007E55,760.3160,852.5051,739.0060,000.0030,000.004、債債務(wù)務(wù)和和利利息息20032004200520

16、06E2007Ea、最低貨幣資金為主營業(yè)務(wù)收入的34.84%b、銀行長期貸款利率為6.00%c、現(xiàn)金不足時增加短期貸款，利率為5.50%d、現(xiàn)金存款利率為1.35%預(yù)計銀行長期貸款增加額（萬元）42,700.0049,400.0032,333.0020,000.00(40,000.00)2008E2009E32.18%27.79%77.85%78.25%0.49%0.49%1.41%1.41%1.94%1.94%19.63%19.63%9.51%9.51%2008E2009E27.05%27.05%0.000.005.055.0548.18145.4645.461.16

17、%1.16%2.06%2.06%3.33%3.33%0.49%0.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2008E2008E2009E2009E3,000.003,000.002008E2009E(35,000.00)(35,000.00)經(jīng)經(jīng)營營情情景景分分析析情情景景選選擇擇2 2一一般般情情景景預(yù)預(yù)測測會會計計年年度度截截止止日日：12/3112/312005E2006E1銷售收入增長率36.11%47.17%2銷貨成本

18、/ 銷售收入81.22%79.14%3管理費用 / 銷售收入1.94%1.94%營業(yè)費用 / 銷售收入1.41%1.41%股利分配比例9.51%9.51%1 1樂樂觀觀情情景景預(yù)預(yù)測測銷售收入增長率39.72%51.89%銷貨成本 / 銷售收入79.60%77.55%管理費用 / 銷售收入1.84%1.84%營業(yè)費用 / 銷售收入1.34%1.34%股利分配比例14.51%14.51%2 2一一般般情情景景預(yù)預(yù)測測銷售收入增長率36.11%47.17%銷貨成本 / 銷售收入81.22%79.14%管理費用 / 銷售收入1.94%1.94%營業(yè)費用 / 銷售收入1.41%1.41%股利分配比例9

19、.51%9.51%3 3保保守守情情景景預(yù)預(yù)測測銷售收入增長率32.50%42.46%銷貨成本 / 銷售收入82.84%80.72%管理費用 / 銷售收入2.03%2.03%營業(yè)費用 / 銷售收入1.48%1.48%股利分配比例4.51%4.51%2007E2008E2009E21.97%32.2%27.79%78.01%77.8%78.25%1.94%1.9%1.94%1.41%1.4%1.41%9.51%9.5%9.51%24.16%35.39%30.57%76.45%76.29%76.68%1.84%1.84%1.84%1.34%1.34%1.34%14.51%14.51%14.51%2

20、1.97%32.18%27.79%78.01%77.85%78.25%1.94%1.94%1.94%1.41%1.41%1.41%9.51%9.51%9.51%19.77%28.96%25.01%79.57%79.40%79.81%2.03%2.03%2.03%1.48%1.48%1.48%4.51%4.51%4.51%歷歷史史折折舊舊：200220032004固固定定資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)折折舊舊原值72,321.7875,494.11224,525.01折舊3,422.505,488.04折舊率0.00%4.53%2.44%假假設(shè)設(shè)：現(xiàn)有固定資產(chǎn)的折舊年限/折舊率7.92%使使用用直直線線折折舊舊法法新

21、建固定資產(chǎn)的折舊年限/折舊率6.00%20052006E2007E2008E2009E初始固定資產(chǎn)原值224,52517,774.9017,774.9017,774.9017,774.9017,774.902005固定資產(chǎn)投資+在建工程轉(zhuǎn)44,2392,654.342,654.342,654.342,654.342,654.342006固定資產(chǎn)投資+在建工程轉(zhuǎn)60,7503,645.003,645.003,645.003,645.002007固定資產(chǎn)投資+在建工程轉(zhuǎn)31,8751,912.501,912.501,912.502008固定資產(chǎn)投資+在建工程轉(zhuǎn)3,938236.25236.2520

22、09固定資產(chǎn)投資+在建工程轉(zhuǎn)3,469208.13在建工程期初余額0.007,500.006,750.004,875.003,937.50新增工程物資0.000.000.000.000.00新增在建工程15,000.006,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.00轉(zhuǎn)固定資產(chǎn)7,500.006,750.004,875.003,937.503,468.75在建工程期末余額7,500.006,750.004,875.003,937.503,468.75期初固定資產(chǎn)合計189,218.01220,527.77256,453.54260,466.80237,243.81+ +固定資產(chǎn)

23、投資51,739.0060,000.0030,000.003,000.003,000.00折舊20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11固定資產(chǎn)減值準(zhǔn)備0.000.000.000.000.00期期末末固固定定資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)合合計計220,527.77256,453.54260,466.80237,243.81213,812.70無無形形資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)投投資資和和折折舊舊歷歷史史攤攤銷銷：200220032004攤銷假假設(shè)設(shè)：不考慮無形資產(chǎn)增加，無形資產(chǎn)采用直線法攤銷，攤銷年限10 年20042005E2006E2007E2008E2009E期初無形資產(chǎn)凈值0

24、.000.000.000.000.00攤銷0.000.000.000.000.00期末無形資產(chǎn)凈值0.000.000.000.000.000.00一般情景預(yù)測利利潤潤表表（單單位位：萬萬元元）歷史數(shù)據(jù)區(qū)顯性期預(yù)測會計年度截止日：12/3120022003200420052006E2007E2008E2009E主主營營業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)務(wù)收收入入45,11065,19999,348135,222199,010242,725320,825409,979增增長長率率44.5%52.4%36.1%47.2%22.0%32.2%27.8%減：折扣與折讓主主營營業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)務(wù)收收入入凈凈額額45,11065,19999,3

25、48135,222199,010242,725320,825409,979減：主營業(yè)務(wù)成本35,82851,56278,710109,162157,491189,354249,753320,807主營業(yè)務(wù)稅金及附加2743275496669801,1951,5802,019主主營營業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)務(wù)利利潤潤9,00813,31020,08925,39440,53952,17669,49187,153毛毛利利率率20.6%20.9%20.8%19.3%20.9%22.0%22.2%21.8%加：其他業(yè)務(wù)利潤226.26119.3872.7912.00150.00200.00200.00200.00減：存貨

26、跌價損失0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00營業(yè)費用414.57731.761,460.751,902.002,799.233,414.114,512.645,766.67管理費用2,627.692,102.052,471.252,620.003,855.934,702.936,216.157,943.57利息費用7,661.398,975.988,616.626,366.623,805.98利息收入480.51623.80820.091,041.031,534.13匯兌損益(收益為正)其他0.000.000.000.000.00財務(wù)費用782.48810.4793

27、9.56633.891,805.181,249.54(1,221.41)2,271.85營營業(yè)業(yè)利利潤潤5,409.949,784.9015,289.8220,250.1132,228.3943,009.5660,183.6571,370.45加：投資收益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00加：期貨收益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00補貼收入802.87859.631.201,439.00600.000.000.000.00營業(yè)外收入23.3629.3638.68203.0050.0050.0050.0050.00減：營業(yè)外支出93.

28、05317.94103.4150.0080.0080.0080.0080.00加：以前年度損益調(diào)整稅稅前前利利潤潤6,143.1210,355.9515,226.2921,842.1132,798.3942,979.5660,153.6571,340.45減：所得稅1,533.672,479.922,612.624,287.006,437.418,435.6911,806.4914,002.15實際稅率25.0%23.9%17.2%19.6%19.6%19.6%19.6%19.6%加：財政返還減：少數(shù)股東損益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00加：未確認(rèn)的投資損失減

29、：購并利潤凈凈利利潤潤4,609.457,876.0312,613.6717,555.1126,360.9834,543.8748,347.1657,338.30銷銷售售凈凈利利率率10.2%12.1%12.7%13.0%13.2%14.2%15.1%14.0%凈凈利利潤潤增增長長率率70.9%60.2%39.2%50.2%31.0%40.0%18.6%發(fā)行在外股份數(shù)量(萬股）16,700.0016,700.0016,700.0025,050.0025,050.0033,050.0033,050.0033,050.00EPSEPS0.2760.4720.7550.7011.0521.0451.

30、4631.735EPS增增長長率率70.9%60.2%-7.2%50.2%-0.7%40.0%18.6%股股利利2,004.002,004.002,505.001,670.002,507.693,286.124,599.225,454.53期期初初未未分分配配利利潤潤0.003,906.188,596.8116,813.0030,065.1149,964.2576,040.42112,536.29提提取取法法定定盈盈余余公公積積460.92787.601,261.371,755.002,636.103,454.394,834.725,733.83提提取取法法定定公公益益金金230.46393.

31、80630.68878.001,318.051,727.192,417.362,866.92提提取取任任意意盈盈余余公公積積0.000.000.00期期末末未未分分配配利利潤潤1,914.078,596.8116,813.4330,065.1149,964.2576,040.42112,536.29155,819.31一般情景預(yù)測資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)負(fù)負(fù)債債表表（萬萬元元）歷史數(shù)據(jù)區(qū)顯性期預(yù)測會計年度截止日：12/3120022003200420052006E2007E2008E2009E資產(chǎn)貨幣資金21,798.0132,383.1334,609.4636,577.0055,837.9365,656.1

32、688,570.83138,707.47短期投資0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00減：短期投資跌價準(zhǔn)備短期投資0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00應(yīng)收票據(jù)384.001,139.13453.061,872.002,755.083,360.264,441.465,675.71應(yīng)收股利0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00應(yīng)收利息0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00應(yīng)收帳款679.492.410.000.000.000.000.000.00其他應(yīng)收款78.87204.3492.9446.

33、0067.7082.57109.14139.47減：壞帳準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)收帳款凈額758.36206.7592.9446.0067.7082.57109.14139.47預(yù)付帳款3,151.864,334.363,862.665,127.006,951.109,144.2412,036.9415,752.61應(yīng)收補貼款0.000.000.00存貨3,781.435,399.4410,226.1214,408.0020,786.8524,992.2632,964.2842,342.51其中:工程施工減：存貨跌價準(zhǔn)備(含工程虧損準(zhǔn)備)0.000.000.000.000.000.00存貨凈額3,781.435

34、,399.4410,226.1214,408.0020,786.8524,992.2632,964.2842,342.51待攤費用19.2915.5916.91110.00247.00414.10634.96917.20待處理流動資產(chǎn)凈損失一年內(nèi)到期的長期債券投資期貨保證金0.000.000.000.00319.59319.59319.59319.59其他流動資產(chǎn)0.000.000.000.000.00流流動動資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)總總額額29,892.9543,478.4049,261.1558,140.0086,965.25103,969.18139,077.22203,854.55長期股權(quán)投資0.00

35、0.000.000.000.000.000.000.00長期債權(quán)投資長期投資合計0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00減：長期投資減值準(zhǔn)備長長期期投投資資凈凈額額0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00其中：合并價差0.000.000.00股權(quán)投資差額固定資產(chǎn)原值72,321.7875,494.11224,525.01233,788.00294,538.00326,413.00330,350.50333,819.25減：累計折舊28,611.9732,034.4737,522.5152,013.0076,087.24102,073.97128,

36、296.96154,728.07固定資產(chǎn)凈值43,709.8143,459.64187,002.50181,775.00218,450.76224,339.03202,053.54179,091.18減：固定資產(chǎn)減值準(zhǔn)備0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00固定資產(chǎn)凈額43,709.8143,459.64187,002.50181,775.00218,450.76224,339.03202,053.54179,091.18工程物資11,362.6724,857.862,215.5122,415.0022,415.0022,415.0022,415.0022,415.0

37、0在建工程4,701.5548,439.930.0014,050.006,750.004,875.003,937.503,468.75減：在建工程減值準(zhǔn)備固定資產(chǎn)清理0.00待處理固定資產(chǎn)凈損失固固定定資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)合合計計59,774.03116,757.43189,218.01218,240.00247,615.76251,629.03228,406.04204,974.93無形資產(chǎn)0.0030.100.000.000.000.000.000.00遞延資產(chǎn)開辦費長期待攤費用0.000.000.000.00482.00355.00228.00101.00其他長期資產(chǎn)0.000.000.000.00

38、0.000.000.000.00其中：臨時設(shè)施凈值無無形形資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)及及其其他他資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)合合計計0.0030.100.000.00482.00355.00228.00101.00遞延稅款借項資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)總總額額89,666.98160,265.93238,479.16276,380.00335,063.01355,953.21367,711.26408,930.48負(fù)債和股東權(quán)益循循環(huán)環(huán)貸貸款款9,500.007,500.007,000.008,000.000.0016,750.660.000.00應(yīng)付票據(jù)0.000.000.002,726.003,932.884,728.556,236.868,0

39、11.22應(yīng)付帳款6,211.315,630.2725,520.6613,785.0019,615.5923,584.0431,106.8739,956.67預(yù)收帳款(負(fù)債)3,401.524,454.575,358.659,859.0016,482.3024,560.4835,237.9048,882.50代銷商品款應(yīng)付工資0.000.000.000.00150.00150.00150.00150.00應(yīng)付福利1,194.121,351.991,580.241,575.001,600.001,600.001,600.001,600.00應(yīng)付股利1,860.000.000.000.000.00

40、0.000.000.00應(yīng)交稅金(252.51)(181.86)(1,145.33)(341.00)3,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.00其他應(yīng)交款3.076.5425.0322.00150.00150.00150.00150.00其他應(yīng)付款434.16581.65461.18601.0015,000.0015,000.0015,000.0015,000.00預(yù)提費用0.000.000.0022.0054.3893.87146.06212.77其他流動負(fù)債0.000.000.000.000.00一年內(nèi)到期的長期負(fù)債0.000.004,600.000.000.000.0

41、00.000.00流流動動負(fù)負(fù)債債22,351.6719,343.1643,400.4336,249.0059,985.1489,617.6092,627.70116,963.16長期銀行貸款11,500.0054,200.00103,600.00135,933.00155,933.00115,933.0080,933.0045,933.00應(yīng)付債券0.000.000.000.000.00長期應(yīng)付款0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00專項應(yīng)付款0.0023,045.0017,667.4311,835.009,478.589,478.589,478.589,478.5

42、8住房周轉(zhuǎn)金其他長期負(fù)債0.000.000.000.000.00長長期期負(fù)負(fù)債債合合計計11,500.0077,245.00121,267.43147,768.00165,411.58125,411.5890,411.5855,411.58遞延稅款貸項0.000.000.000.00負(fù)負(fù)債債總總額額33,851.6796,588.16164,667.86184,017.00225,396.72215,029.18183,039.28172,374.74少數(shù)股東權(quán)益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00股本16,700.0016,700.0016,700.0025,05

43、0.0025,050.0033,050.0033,050.0033,050.00減：已歸還投資股本凈額16,700.0016,700.0016,700.0025,050.0025,050.0025,050.0025,050.0025,050.00資本公積金35,676.0735,676.0735,701.0530,018.0030,018.0030,018.0030,018.0030,018.00其中：補充流動資本盈余公積金1,525.422,704.774,596.827,230.0011,184.1516,365.7323,617.8032,218.55其中：公益金508.47901.59

44、1,532.272,410.00未確認(rèn)的投資損失0.000.000.000.000.00未分配利潤1,913.828,596.8116,813.4330,065.0049,964.2576,040.42112,536.29155,819.31外幣報表折算差額資本匯差調(diào)整股股東東權(quán)權(quán)益益合合計計55,815.3163,677.6573,811.3092,363.00116,216.40147,474.15191,222.09243,105.86負(fù)負(fù)債債和和股股東東權(quán)權(quán)益益89,666.98160,265.81238,479.16276,380.00341,613.13362,503.32374,

45、261.37415,480.60檢檢查查0.000.120.000.00(6,550.11)(6,550.11)(6,550.11)(6,550.11)資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)負(fù)負(fù)債債率率37.75%60.27%69.05%66.58%65.98%59.32%48.91%41.49%一般情景預(yù)測現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流量量表表 （單單位位：萬萬元元）歷史數(shù)據(jù)區(qū)顯性區(qū)預(yù)測會計年度截止日：12/3120042005E2006E2007E2008E2008E2009E2009E經(jīng)經(jīng)營營活活動動產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生生的的現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流量量稅稅后后利利潤潤17,555.1126,360.9834,543.8748,347.1657,338.30加

46、加:少數(shù)股東損益0.000.000.000.000.00處置固定、無形資產(chǎn)和其他長期資產(chǎn)的損失0.000.000.000.000.00固定資產(chǎn)報廢損失財務(wù)費用633.891,805.181,249.54(1,221.41)2,271.85投資損失(減:收益)0.000.000.000.000.00折舊和攤銷20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11壞帳準(zhǔn)備0.000.000.000.000.00短期投資跌價準(zhǔn)備0.000.000.000.000.00存貨跌價準(zhǔn)備（含工程虧損準(zhǔn)備）0.000.000.000.000.00長期投資減值準(zhǔn)備0.000.

47、000.000.000.00固定資產(chǎn)減值準(zhǔn)備0.000.000.000.000.00在建工程減值準(zhǔn)備0.000.000.000.000.00營營運運資資金金的的變變動動應(yīng)收票據(jù)的減少/(增加)(1,418.94)(883.08)(605.19)(1,081.20)(1,234.25)應(yīng)收股利的減少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00應(yīng)收利息的減少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00應(yīng)收帳款的減少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00其他應(yīng)收款的減少/(增加)46.94(21.70)(14.87)(26.57)(30.33)預(yù)付帳款的減少/(增加)(1,2

48、64.34)(1,824.10)(2,193.14)(2,892.70)(3,715.67)應(yīng)收補貼款的減少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00存貨的減少/(增加)(4,181.88)(6,378.85)(4,205.41)(7,972.02)(9,378.22)待攤費用的減少/(增加)(93.09)(137.00)(167.10)(220.86)(282.24)期貨保證金的減少/(增加)0.00(319.59)0.000.000.00其他流動資產(chǎn)的減少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00長期待攤費用的減少/(增加)0.00(482.00)127.00127.001

49、27.00其他長期資產(chǎn)的減少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00遞延稅款借項的減少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00應(yīng)付票據(jù)的增加/(減少)2,726.001,206.88795.671,508.311,774.36應(yīng)付帳款的增加/(減少)(11,735.66)5,830.593,968.457,522.838,849.79預(yù)收帳款(負(fù)債)的增加/(減少)4,500.356,623.308,078.1810,677.4313,644.60代銷商品款的增加/(減少)0.000.000.000.000.00應(yīng)付工資的增加/(減少)0.00150.000.000.000

50、.00應(yīng)付福利的增加/(減少)(5.24)25.000.000.000.00應(yīng)付股利的增加/(減少)0.000.000.000.000.00應(yīng)交稅金的增加/(減少)804.333,341.000.000.000.00其他應(yīng)交款的增加/(減少)(3.03)128.000.000.000.00其他應(yīng)付款的增加/(減少)139.8214,399.000.000.000.00預(yù)提費用的增加/(減少)22.0032.3839.4952.2066.70其他流動負(fù)債的增加/(減少)0.000.000.000.000.00長期應(yīng)付款的增加/(減少)(5,832.43)(2,356.42)0.000.000.0

51、0其他長期負(fù)債的增加/(減少)0.000.000.000.000.00一年內(nèi)到期長期負(fù)債的增加/(減少)(4,600.00)0.000.000.000.00應(yīng)付債券的增加/(減少)0.000.000.000.000.00遞延稅款貸項的增加/(減少)0.000.000.000.000.00經(jīng)經(jīng)營營活活動動的的現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流量量17,723.0771,573.8067,603.2381,043.1495,863.02投投資資活活動動的的現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流量量短期投資0.000.000.000.000.00長期投資0.000.000.000.000.00未確認(rèn)的投資損失0.000.000.000.000.0

52、0投資收益0.000.000.000.000.00固定資產(chǎn)投資(51,739.00)(60,000.00)(30,000.00)(3,000.00)(3,000.00)投投資資活活動動的的現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流(51,739.00)(60,000.00)(30,000.00)(3,000.00)(3,000.00)融融資資活活動動產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生生的的現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流量量長期貸款的增加/(減少)32,333.0020,000.00(40,000.00)(35,000.00)(35,000.00)股利分配(1,670.00)(2,507.69)(3,286.12)(4,599.22)(5,454.53)財務(wù)費用(633

53、.89)(1,805.18)(1,249.54)1,221.41(2,271.85)股份發(fā)行8,350.000.000.000.000.00資本公積金的增加/(減少)(5,683.05)0.000.000.000.00計入循環(huán)貸款前融資活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量32,696.0615,687.13(44,535.66)(38,377.81)(42,726.39)循環(huán)貸款的增加(減少)3,287.41(8,000.00)16,750.66(16,750.66)0.00融融資資活活動動的的現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流35,983.477,687.13(27,785.00)(55,128.46)(42,726.39)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金

54、金凈凈變變動動1,967.5419,260.939,818.2322,914.6850,136.63期期初初現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金余余額額34,609.4636,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83期期末末現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金余余額額36,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83138,707.47自自由由現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流量量(此此行行數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)據(jù)未未用用)(34,015.93)11,573.8037,603.2378,043.1492,863.02公公司司自自由由現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流FCFFEBIT20,884.0034,033.5744,259.1058,962.2473,6

55、42.30稅率19.63%19.63%19.63%19.63%19.63%EBIT*(1-稅率)16,785.0527,353.7335,572.2747,389.5959,188.36加：折舊20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11減：資本支出55,283.6656,288.4229,873.002,873.002,873.00減：非現(xiàn)金性流動資本的增加(減少)10,462.74(22,171.83)(5,696.09)(7,567.40)(9,694.75)FCFF(28,532.11)17,311.3737,382.0978,306.98

56、92,441.23非非現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金性性流流動動資資本本變變化化流動資產(chǎn)14,651.6921,563.0031,127.3238,313.0250,506.3865,147.08流動負(fù)債31,800.4328,249.0059,985.1472,866.9492,627.70116,963.16流動資本(17,148.74)(6,686.00)(28,857.83)(34,553.91)(42,121.32)(51,816.07)非非現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金性性流流動動資資本本變變化化10,462.74(22,171.83)(5,696.09)(7,567.40)(9,694.75)股股權(quán)權(quán)資資本本自自由由現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金

57、金流流FCFE凈利17,555.1126,360.9834,543.8748,347.1657,338.30加：折舊20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11加：債務(wù)的增加(減少)28,733.0012,000.00(23,249.34)(51,750.66)(35,000.00)減：資本支出55,283.6656,288.4229,873.002,873.002,873.00減：非現(xiàn)金性流動資本的增加(減少)10,462.74(22,171.83)(5,696.09)(7,567.40)(9,694.75)FCFE970.9528,318.62

58、13,104.3527,513.8955,591.17一般情景預(yù)測債債務(wù)務(wù)、現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金和和利利息息（單單位位：萬萬元元）2004A20052006E2007E2008E2009E循循環(huán)環(huán)貸貸款款利利率率5.50%期初現(xiàn)金余額34,609.4636,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83當(dāng)期現(xiàn)金流量經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量17,723.0771,573.8067,603.2381,043.1495,863.02投資活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量(51,739.00)(60,000.00)(30,000.00)(3,000.00)(3,000.00)計入循環(huán)貸款前融資活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量

59、32,696.0615,687.13(44,535.66)(38,377.81)(42,726.39)- - 最低現(xiàn)金余額36,577.0053,831.4365,656.1686,781.74110,897.69現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金剩剩余余/(/(缺缺口口）(3,287.41)10,006.49(16,750.66)18,539.7527,809.78循環(huán)貸款期初余額7,000.008,000.000.0016,750.660.00循環(huán)貸款的增加/(減少)3,287.41(8,000.00)16,750.66(16,750.66)0.00循循環(huán)環(huán)貸貸款款期期末末余余額額10,287.410.0016,7

60、50.660.000.00循循環(huán)環(huán)貸貸款款利利息息費費用用475.40220.00460.64460.640.00銀銀行行長長期期貸貸款款利利率率6.00%期初余額103,600.00135,933.00155,933.00115,933.0080,933.00當(dāng)期增加/(減少)32,333.0020,000.00(40,000.00)(35,000.00)(35,000.00)期期末末余余額額103,600.00135,933.00155,933.00115,933.0080,933.0045,933.00長長期期貸貸款款利利息息費費用用7,185.998,755.988,155.985,9