投機藝術中英對照版

1、投機藝術中英對照版word作者：迪克森·G·沃茲本翻譯內容僅供投資者學習用，不可用于任何商業(yè)目的，張軼不負任何法律責任。張軼翻譯制作中英對照版word。版本越新，內容越完美。版本：2009年01月29日。翻譯目的：本書是股票作手回憶錄和克羅談期貨交易策略提到的書。copyright 1965 traders press new york, n.y.紐約市交易者出版社1965年版權fraser publishing company edition, 19791979年弗雷澤出版公司2nd printing, 1985 3rd printing, 1987 4th printi

2、ng, 20031985年第2次印刷，1987年第3次印刷，2003年第4次印刷isbn: 0-87034-056-5國際標準書號：0-87034-056-5printed in the u.s.a.在美國印刷foreward前言you have opened the tomb of a great man. his name, his hooks and his exchange have almost vanished. dickson g. watts, author of speculation as a fine art and thoughts on life, was a cha

3、rter member and president of the new york cotton exchange.你正在研究一個偉人。他的名字，他的財富，他的交易所現(xiàn)在都不存在了。迪克森·G·沃茲作為投機藝術和生活感想的作者，過去是紐約棉花交易所的會員和主席。the revival of edwin lefevre's book, reminiscences of a stock operator, has renewed interest in the book because "old dickson" wrote the bible fo

4、r successful speculators. reference is constantly made of speculation as a fine art, yet there is not a copy in the library of congress or the new york public library. this was one of the few books written on speculation by a successful speculator.埃德文·拉斐爾寫的股票作手回憶錄的出版引起了人們的興趣，因為老迪克森為成功的投機者寫了圣經。他

5、的建議組成了投機藝術一書，但是在國會圖書館或紐約大眾圖書館里面都沒有這本書。這本書是成功的投機者寫的投機書，比較罕見。dickson g. watts was president of the new york cotton exchange between 1878 and 1880. this exchange was one of the greatest arenas of speculation in america. seats sold for as much as $45,000. at this writing, the bid is $770 and the trading

6、 ring is deserted. the epitaph of the cotton exchange is that our great society of free enterprise supports the price of cotton above the world market. speculators cannot out-bid the government, so the price cannot go up. the price cannot drop because uncle sam has unlimited funds. there is a remote

7、 possibility that the cotton producers will grow cotton faster than the government can print money and the market will be free again.18781880年，迪克森·G·沃茲是紐約棉花交易所的主席。這個交易所曾是美國最大的投機場所之一。當時席位賣45000美元，寫作本書時，已經降到了770美元，現(xiàn)在這個交易所已經被放棄了。棉花交易所的存在說明了我們這個偉大的社會支持自由企業(yè)，并支持棉花在全世界市場的價格。投資者不能超越政府，所以價格不能漲。因為美國

8、政府的資金有限，所以價格不能跌。如果棉花生產者生產棉花的速度比美國政府印錢的速度快，那么棉花市場又可能再次成為自由的市場。pandora's box is open. you have parts of thoughts on life and speculation as a fine art in your hands.潘多拉的盒子打開了。你有機會親自研究生活和投機的藝術。did "old dickson" originate the quotations and rules of speculation or did he just pass them alo

9、ng? at any rate, he used the knowledge to good advantage. can you?這些訓誡和投機原則是老迪克森發(fā)明的嗎？是他從別人那里傳下來的嗎？總之，他用這些知識取得了很好的優(yōu)勢，你能做到嗎？j.r.l. 3/16/651965年3月16日，杰克·R·拉文this reprint of a wall street classic is by permission of jack r. levien who was owner of traders press when it was functioning in new y

10、ork. i first ran across jack in early 1965 when he was reprinting old wall street classics, as we do these days, and since then i have kept track of his adventures away from wall street to holland and finally back to route 1, box 18, mcdowell, virginia 24458 where he now resides, keeping his fertile

11、 mind working in numerous areas.杰克·R·拉文是紐約交易者出版社的擁有者，他同意重印華爾街的經典書籍。我和杰克1965年初第一次見面，就像我們現(xiàn)在重印華爾街的經典書籍一樣，他當時在重印華爾街的經典書籍。我一直在跟蹤他，從華爾街跟蹤到荷蘭，最終跟蹤到的住所：24458，弗吉尼亞，麥克道爾，18號郵箱，1號。他一直在不斷地思考中。one of these areas has been for years his love and care for miniature books. he has produced over 40 of them,

12、with a great variety of subject matter, typography and bindings. in past lives, jack was a printing salesman and later a stockbroker. he came first from richmond, virginia to new york and began to collect books relating to the stock market.多年來，他一直喜愛小書。他出版了40多本小書，主題很多，印刷裝訂方式有凸版印刷和膠粘書。在過去，杰克是賣書的，后來做了股

13、票經紀人。他從弗吉尼亞的里士滿到了紐約，然后開始收集關于股市的書。his first miniature format was in 1967, with the results being stock market manipulation by edwin lefevre. the results he received from publication of this small book led him to study miniature books and publish more of them. his first five miniature publications wer

14、e under the traders press label while he lived in brooklyn, new york. in holland he published under his own name and he is now back in virginia, his native land.他的第一本小書在1967年出版的，最后的書是埃德文·拉斐爾寫的，講市場操縱。這本書的收益讓他開始研究小書，并開始出版更多的小書。他前面5本小書都是以交易者出版社的名義出版的。他在荷蘭的時候則用自己的名字出書，現(xiàn)在他又回到了老家弗吉尼亞。james l. fraser詹

15、姆斯·I·弗雷澤burlington, vermont佛蒙特州，柏林頓19791979年speculation as a fine art投機藝術what is speculation?什么是投機before entering on our inquiry, before considering the rules of our art, we will examine the subject in the abstract. is speculation right? it may be questioned, tried by the highest standards

16、, whether any trade where an exact equivalent is not given can be right. but as society is now organized speculation seems a necessity.在問問題之前，在思考藝術原則之前，我們要先討論一下抽象的主題。投機是正確的嗎？也許有人有疑問，也許有人用高標準嘗試過，是否對于每筆交易，如果對應的情況不存在了，這筆交易還是對的嗎。但是從現(xiàn)在的社會結構來看，投機是必要的。is there any difference between speculation and gamblin

17、g? the terms are often used interchangeably, but speculation presupposes intellectual effort; gambling, blind chance. accurately to define the two is difficult; all definitions are difficult. wit and humor, for instance, can be defined; but notwithstanding the most subtle distinction, wit and humor

18、blend, run into each other. this is true of speculation and gambling. the former has some of the elements of chance; the latter some of the elements of reason. we define as best we can. speculation is a venture based upon calculation. gambling is a venture without calculation. the law makes this dis

19、tinction; it sustains speculation and condemns gambling.投機和賭博有什么區(qū)別嗎？這2個術語經常是交叉使用的，但是投機靠的是智力，賭博靠的是運氣。給它們準確地下定義是困難的，所有的定義都是困難的。有時候講不清2者之間的細小差別，有時候又混淆了。投機和賭博就是這樣。投機也靠一點分析，賭博靠一點運氣。我們盡力給一個最好的定義。投機是根據(jù)計算做的冒險，賭博是沒有根據(jù)計算做的冒險（張軼注：這個定義也不準，因為有些賭博也講概率的）。法律講出了它們的區(qū)別，法律接受投機，譴責賭博。all business is more or less speculat

20、ion. the term speculation, however, is commonly restricted to business of exceptional uncertainty. the uninitiated believe that chance is so large a part of speculation that it is subject to no rules, is governed by no laws. this is a serious error. we propose in this article to point out some of th

21、e laws in this realm.所有的生意或多或少都是投機。然而，投機這個名詞一般是嚴格地和不確定性聯(lián)系起來的。外行人認為投機就是不依靠任何原則，不依靠任何規(guī)律。這是錯的。這篇文章就要指出其中的規(guī)律。there is no royal road to success in speculation. we do not undertake, and it would be worse than folly to undertake, to show how money can be made. those who make for themselves or others an inf

22、allible plan delude themselves and others. our effort will be to set for the great underlying principles of the “art” the application of which must depend on circumstances, the time and the man.投機成功是沒有平坦的大道的。無法知道自己會賺多少錢。如果有人說投機能確定賺錢，那就是欺騙自己和別人了。我們將盡力指出這門藝術所要使用的原則，那就是根據(jù)環(huán)境，時機和人而進行投機。let us first consi

23、der the qualities essential to the equipment of the speculator. we name them: self-reliance, judgment, courage, prudence, pliability.讓我們首先討論投機者的關鍵素質。它們分別是：依靠自己，判斷，勇氣，謹慎，柔韌。1 self-reliance. a man must think for himself, must follow his own convictions. george macdonald says: “a man cannot have anothe

24、r mans ideas any more than he can another mans soul or another mans body.” self-trust is the foundation of successful effort.依靠自己。一個人必須獨立思考，必須依靠自己的信念。喬治·麥克唐納德說：“一個人不能完全使用另一個人的思想，就像他不能使用另一個人的靈魂或肉體一樣?！弊孕攀浅晒Φ幕A。2 judgment. that equipoise, that nice adjustment of the faculties one to the other, whi

25、ch is called good judgment, is an essential to the speculator.判斷。平衡力，判斷的能力，都叫優(yōu)秀的判斷，這對投機者很關鍵。3 courage. that is, confidence to act on the decisions of the mind. in speculation there is value in mirabeaus dictum: “be bold, still be bold; always be bold.”勇氣。就是很自信地就決定。米拉波有一句關于投機價值的格言：“勇敢，還是要勇敢，永遠要勇敢?！?

26、prudence. the power of measuring the danger, together with a certain alertness and watchfulness, is very important. there should be a balance of these two, prudence and courage; prudence in contemplation, courage in execution. lord bacon says: “in meditation all dangers should be seen; in execution

27、one, unless very formidable.” connected with these qualities, properly an outgrowth of them, is a third, viz: promptness. the mind convinced, the act should follow. in the words of macbeth; “henceforth the very firstlings of my heart shall be the firstlings of my hand.” think, act, promptly.謹慎。在衡量風險

28、的同時保持一定程度的警覺和戒備是非常重要的。應該要平衡謹慎和勇氣。思考時保持謹慎，行動時保持勇氣。培根爵士說：“在冥思的時候要看到所有的危險，在執(zhí)行的時候要看到最可怕的危險?！焙瓦@些特質相對應的就是機敏。一旦思想確定了，行動就要跟上思想。馬克佩斯說：“我的心一想到，我的手就做到了?！彼伎?，行動，要快。5 pliability the ability to change an opinion, the power of revision. “he who observes,” says emerson, “and observes again, is always formidable.”柔韌。

29、就是改變觀點的能力，改變的力量。愛默生說：“觀察之后還在觀察的人總是了不起的?！眛he qualifications named are necessary to the makeup of a speculator, but they must be in well-balanced combination. a deficiency or an overplus of one quality will destroy the effectiveness of all. the possession of such faculties, in a proper adjustment is,

30、of course, uncommon. in speculation, as in life, few succeed, many fail.以上特質都是投機者必備的，但是要做好平衡。對于任何一個特質，過少地使用或過多的使用都會摧毀整體的有效性。當然了，合理地使用這些能力是很難的。投機和生活一樣，少數(shù)人成功，大部分人失敗。each department of life has its language, expressive if not elegant, and in dealing with the subject we must perforce adopt the language

31、of the street. the laws given will be found to apply to speculation of any kind. they are universal laws; but for the sake of clearness we assume the case of speculation as conducted in one of our exchanges, where they can be best demonstrated.生活中的每一方面，如果不是優(yōu)美的語言，那么就是昂貴的語言，我們必須適應這些語言。關于投機的規(guī)則，它們是宇宙規(guī)則，

32、這些規(guī)則在交易所得到了最好的展示。laws absolute.絕對的規(guī)則。1 never overtrade. to take an interest larger than the capital justifies is to invite disaster. with such an interest a fluctuation in the market unnerves the operator, and his judgment becomes worthless.永遠不過度交易。獲取比利息多的收益都有可能招來災難。正因為收益大，所以市場的任何波動都會讓操作者緊張，他的判斷就不再有

33、價值了。2 never “double up”; that is, never completely and at once reverse a position. being “l(fā)ong,” for instance, do not “sell out” and go as much “short.” this may occasionally succeed, but is very hazardous, for should the market begin again to advance, the mind reverts to its original opinion and th

34、e speculator “covers up” and “goes long” again. should this last change be wrong, complete demoralization ensues. the change in the original position should have been made moderately, cautiously, thus keeping the judgment clear and preserving the balance of the mind.永遠不反轉。也就是說，不要立刻完全地反轉倉位。比如，在做多的時候不

35、要平倉，然后又做空同樣大小的倉位。這個方法有時候會成功，但是很危險。一旦市場又上漲了，投機者又要回補倉位并再次做多。如果這次交易又是錯的，它就完全摧毀了一個人的斗志。所以在開倉的時候要保持適當，謹慎，這樣判斷就是清晰的，思想就是平衡的。3 “run quickly,” or not at all; that is to say, act promptly at the first approach of danger, but failing to do this until others see the danger, hold on or close out part of the “in

36、terest.”快跑，或者死守。也就是說，當危險第一次出現(xiàn)時，趕快行動；如果沒來得及這么做，那么就死守或平掉部分倉位。4 another rule is, when doubtful, reduce the amount of the interest; for either the mind is not satisfied with the position taken, or the interest is too large for safety. one man told another that he could not sleep on account of his positi

37、on in the market; his friend judiciously and laconically replied: “sell down to a sleeping point.”還有一個規(guī)則是，如果有疑問，減少倉位。無論是對倉位不滿，還是持有的倉位太大了，不安全，都要減少倉位。有一個人告訴他的朋友，他的倉位讓他睡不著，他的朋友深思熟慮并簡潔地說：“減倉到你睡得好的地步?！眗ules conditional.原則these rules are subject to modification according to the circumstances, individualit

38、y and temperament of the operator.根據(jù)操作者和環(huán)境的不同，這些原則會有些變化。1. it is better to “average up” than to “average down.” this opinion is contrary to the one commonly held and acted upon; it being the practice to buy, and on a decline to buy more. this reduces the average. probably four times out of five this

39、 method will result in striking a reaction in the market that will prevent loss, but the fifth time, meeting with a permanently declining market, the operator loses his head and closes out, making a heavy loss - a loss so great as to bring complete demoralization, often ruin.賺錢時加倉比虧錢時加倉好。也就是說，如果買入后市

40、場下跌，再繼續(xù)多買，這樣平均成本是降低了。如果這么做，5次有4次市場會上漲，減少了虧損，但是第5次時，市場可能繼續(xù)下跌，操作者頭昏了，只好平倉，導致重大虧損虧損太大，導致操作者失去斗志，經常會破產。but buying at first moderately, and, as the market advances, adding slowly and cautiously to the “l(fā)ine” - this is a way of speculating that requires great care and watchfulness, for the market will oft

41、en (probably four times out of five) react to the point of “average.” here lies the danger. failure to close out at the point of average destroys the safety of the whole operation. occasionally a permanently advancing market is met with and a big profit secured.如果一開始適當?shù)刭I入，當市場上漲時，慢慢地謹慎地加倉這種投機方式需要非常認真

42、，非常謹慎，因為市場常常（一般5次有4次）會回調到平均成本處，這是有危險的。如果在平均成本處沒有平倉，可能會導致整個操作處于風險之中。有時候市場會大漲，這樣就賺了很多利潤。in such an operation the original risk is small, the danger at no time great, and when successful, the profit is large. the method should only be employed when an important advance or decline is expected, and with

43、a moderate capital can be undertaken with comparative safety.用這種方法，最初的風險很小，風險總是小，一旦成功了，利潤很大。只有認為會有重大的上漲或下跌時才能用這個方法，投入的資金相對要安全。2. to “buy down” requires a long purse and a strong nerve, and ruin often overtakes those who have both nerve and money. the stronger the nerve the more probability of stayin

44、g too long. there is, however, a class of successful operators who “buy down” and hold on. they deal in relatively small amounts. entering the market prudently with the determination of holding on for a long period, they are not disturbed by its fluctuations. they are men of good judgment, who buy i

45、n times of depression to hold for a general revival of business - an investing rather than a speculating class.在下跌時買入需要你錢多，意志強，有些人錢多，意志也強，但常常還是被毀滅了。意志越強，越有可能長期持有。有些成功的操作者會在下跌時買入并持有。他們用小賬戶這么做。他們在進場時就決定了長期持有，所以他們不受波動的影響。他們的判斷好，在蕭條的時候持有，以期待生意的復蘇他們是投資，不是投機。3. in all ordinary circumstances our advice wou

46、ld be to buy at once an amount that is within the proper limits of capital, etc., “selling out” at a loss or profit, according to judgment. the rule is to stop losses and let profits run. if small profits are taken, then small losses must be taken. not to have the courage to accept a loss, and to be

47、 too eager to take a profit, is fatal. it is the ruin of many.在一般情況下，我們的建議是用合理的資金買入，然后根據(jù)判斷止損或兌現(xiàn)利潤。原則就是截斷虧損，讓利潤奔跑。如果兌現(xiàn)了小利潤，就一定要兌現(xiàn)小虧損。沒有勇氣接受虧損，太急著兌現(xiàn)利潤，這是致命的。這樣會毀了很多東西。4. public opinion is not to be ignored. a strong speculative current is for the time being overwhelming, and should be closely watched.

48、 the rule is, to act cautiously with public opinion; against it, boldly. to go with the market, even when the basis is a good one, is dangerous. it may at any time turn and rend you. every speculator knows the danger of too much “company.” it is equally necessary to exercise common caution in going

49、against the market. this caution should be continued to the point of wavering - of loss of confidence - when the market should be boldly encountered to the full extent of strength, nerve and capital. the market has a pulse on which the hand of the operator should be placed as that of the physician o

50、n the wrist of the patient. this pulse-beat must be the guide when and how to act.不要忽視大眾觀點。有些投機事件很厲害，需要密切關注。原則是，對大眾觀點保持謹慎，勇敢地反對。即使基本面很好，順應市場也是危險的。市場隨時會反轉并撕碎你。每個投機者都知道有太多參考的風險。在逆勢而為的時候謹慎是必要的。這種謹慎要堅持到搖擺的時候失去信心的時候此時市場達到了力量的極限精神和資金也達到了極限。和診脈一樣，市場也有自己的脈搏。需要利用好這個脈搏。5. quiet, weak markets are good markets

51、to sell. they ordinarily develop into declining markets. but when a market has gone through the stages of quiet and weak to active and declining, then on to semi-panic or panic, it should be bought freely. when vice versa, a quiet and firm market develops into activity and strength, then into excite

52、ment, it should be sold with great confidence.安靜軟弱的市場最適合賣出，它們通常會下跌。當市場從安靜軟弱的狀態(tài)到了活躍下跌狀態(tài)，然后就會進入半瘋狂和瘋狂的狀態(tài)，此時可以自由地買入。反之也是如此，平靜堅定的的市場會進入活躍有力的狀態(tài)，然后就會進入激動的狀態(tài)，此時應該滿懷信心地賣出。6. in forming an opinion of the market, the element of chance ought not be omitted. there is a doctrine of chances - napoleon in his camp

53、aigns allowed a margin for chance - for the accidents that come in to destroy or modify the best calculation. calculation must measure the incalculable. in the “reproof of chance lies the true proof of men.”如果要形成市場觀點，就不能忽略概率的因素。有一個關于概率的教訓拿破侖的戰(zhàn)爭就和概率有關意外事件摧毀并修改了最好的計算。計算的時候必須考慮到無法計算的東西。對概率再次演算的人是真正的人。i

54、t is better to act on general than special information (it is not so misleading), viz., the state of the country, the condition of the crops, manufacturers, etc. statistics are valuable, hut they must be kept subordinate to a comprehensive view of the whole situation. those who confine themselves to

55、o closely to statistics are poor guides. “there is nothing,” said canning, “so fallacious as facts, except figures.”最好是根據(jù)普通的信息行動，而不是根據(jù)特殊的信息行動（誤導少些），信息是指國家狀況，農作物狀況，制造業(yè)狀況等等。統(tǒng)計學是有價值的，這樣他們可以對狀況有個整體看法。死盯著統(tǒng)計數(shù)字就不好了?？祵幷f：“除了數(shù)字，沒有什么東西像事實如此不可靠?！薄皐hen in doubt, do nothing. Dont enter the market on half convicti

56、ons; wait till the convictions are fully matured.”“如果有疑問，什么都不要做。不要在信心不足的時候進入市場，等信心足了再進場?！眞e have written to little purpose unless we have left the impression that the fundamental principle that lies at the base of all speculation is this: act so as to keep the mind clear, its judgment trustworthy. a

57、 reserve force should therefore be maintained and kept for supreme movements, when the full strength of the whole man should be put on the stroke delivered.（張軼注：這一段不會翻譯）it may be thought that the carrying out of these rules is difficult. as we said in the outset, the gifted man only can apply them.

58、to the artist alone are the rules of his art valuable.也許使用這些原則是困難的。正如之前所說，有天賦的人可以使用好這些原則。對藝術家來說，藝術的原則就是有價值的。life生活compensations do not always compensate.賠償并不能總是帶來賠償?shù)男Ч common deception, - self-deception.常見的欺騙是自欺欺人。hold in time, or take the jump.要么堅持，要么跳開。a danger known is half overcome. a fault re

59、cognized is half conquered.已知的危險就已經克服了一半。已知的錯誤就已經改變了一半。a great insult, - tell a man he cant take a joke.最大的侮辱說一個人開不起玩笑。fools try to prove that they are right. wise men try to find when they are wrong.傻瓜總是盡力去證明他們是對的。聰明的人總是去發(fā)現(xiàn)自己的錯誤。that writer is the greatest who says the least and suggests the most.偉大的作家說的少，給出的建議多。follow the