SARS疫情對某些經(jīng)濟指標(biāo)的影響

1、精心整理SARSS情對某些經(jīng)濟指標(biāo)的影響2003年SARS情對中國部分行業(yè)的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展產(chǎn)生了一定的 影響，特別是對部分疫情比較嚴(yán)重的省市的相關(guān)行業(yè)所造成的影 響是很明顯的。經(jīng)濟影響主要分為直接影響和間接影響，直接影 響涉及到商品零售業(yè)、旅游業(yè)、綜合服務(wù)業(yè)等，很多方面難以進 行定量地評估?，F(xiàn)僅就SARAE情較重的某城市商品零售業(yè)、 旅游 業(yè)、綜合服務(wù)業(yè)的影響進行定量評估分析。已知某市從1997年1月-2003年12月的商品零售額、接待海 外旅游人數(shù)、綜合服務(wù)收入的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)如下表表1-1商品的零售額（單位：億元）表1-2接待海外旅游人數(shù)（單位：萬人）年代1月2月3月 4月5月6月7月 8月9月10月

2、11月12月. !；199719981999200020012002200383.0 79.8 78.1 85.1 86.6 88.2 90.3 86.7 93.392.5 90.9 96.9101.7 85.1 87.8 91.6 93.4 94.5 97.4 99.5 104.2102.3 101.0 123.592.2 114.0 93.3 101.0 103.5 105.2 109.5 109.2 109.6111.2 121.7 131.31 (J1 1105.0 125.7 106.6 116.0 117.6 118.0 121.7 118.7 120.2127.8 121.8 1

3、21.9139.3 129.5 122.5 124.5 135.7 130.8 138.7 133.7 136.8138.9 129.6 133.7137.5 135.3 133.0 133.4 142.8 141.6 142.9 147.3 159.6162.1 153.5 155.9163.2 159.7 158.4 145.2 124.0 144.1 157.0 162.6 171.8180.7 173.5 176.5年代1月2月3月 4月5月6月7月 8月9月10 月11月12月19979.411.316.819.820.318.820.924.924.7199824.319.418.

4、619999.611.715.819.919.517.817.823.321.4200024.520.115.9200110.112.917.721.021.020.421.925.829.3200229.823.616.5200311.426.019.625.927.624.323.027.827.328.532.818.511.526.420.426.128.928.025.230.828.728.122.220.713.729.723.128.929.027.426.032.231.432.629.222.9_|15.417.123.511.61.782.618.8 16.2 20.12

5、4.926.521.8表1-3綜合服務(wù)業(yè)累計數(shù)額（單位:億元）年代2月 3月4月 5月 6 月7月8月 9月10 月11月12月19979614419427638346655465219987478329721999111169235400459565695805200088110111139200115123833542554164173986620029751087123820031642633765316007119131038117312961497182318445 57670885610001145129214351667216361504642818979114213051479

6、16441920241404584741923111412981492168418852218試根據(jù)這些歷史數(shù)據(jù)建立預(yù)測評估模型，評估 2003年SARS疫情給該市商品零售業(yè)、旅游業(yè)和綜合服務(wù)業(yè)所造成的影響月份年代1234預(yù)測值相對誤差預(yù)測值相對誤差預(yù)測值相對誤差預(yù)測值相對誤差199783079.8078.1085.10199891.98110.095696.94840.139285.85820.022193.08160.01621999102.24430.1089106.46790.066195.92180.0281102.21450.0122000113.65270.0824116.922

7、0.0698107.16510.0053112.24350.03242001126.33410.0931128.40260.0085119.72620.0226123.25650.012002140.43040.0213141.01060.0422133.75960.0057135.35010.0146月份年代5678預(yù)測值相對誤差預(yù)測值相對誤差I(lǐng) 預(yù)測值I.1 ,相對誤差預(yù)測值相對誤差199786.6088.2090.3086.701998199994.0014104.90410.00640.013695.3407105.48860.00890.002799.4671109.62530.02

8、120.001198.6419108.95520.00860.00222000117.07140.0045116.71660.0109120.8210.0072120.34680.01392001130.650.0372129.13980.0127133.160.0399132.92950.00582002145.80350.021142.88520.0091146.75910.027146.82770.0032月份年代9101112預(yù)測值相對誤差預(yù)測值相對誤差預(yù)測值相對誤差預(yù)測值相對誤差199793.3092.5090.9096.90199899.17750.0482100.27170.01

9、98103.71770.0269119.6310.03131999110.99680.0127112.63040.0129113.57470.0668126.05870.03992000124.22470.0335126.51240.0101124.36840.0211132.83170.08972001139.02890.0163142.10530.0231136.1880.0508139.96860.04692002155.59750.0251159.62020.0153149.13080.0285147.48910.054SARS情對商品的零售額的影響情況如表 1:月份123456實際值

10、163.2159.7158.4145.2124144.1預(yù)測值156.0996154.8565149.4379148.6303162.7145158.0936相對誤 差0.0435070.0303290.0565790.0236250.3122140.09711月份789101112實際值157162.6171.8180.7173.5176.5預(yù)測值相對誤161.7471162.179174.1406 179.2938 163.3038 155.41350.030236 0.002589 0.013624 0.007782 0.0587680.11947表1. 2003年商品的零售額的實際值域

11、預(yù)測值SARSK情對接待海外旅游人數(shù)的影響情況如表月份123456實際值15.417.123.511.61.782.61預(yù)測值14.482839.44425.053831.992133.950432.3963相對誤 差0.0595581.3066670.0661191.7579418.0732611.41238月份789101112實際值8.816.220.124.926.521.8預(yù)測值29.115835.419133.751333.291230.730925.0645相對誤 差2.3086141.1863640.6791690.3369960.15965710.149748表2. 2003

12、年接待海外旅游人數(shù)的實際值域預(yù)測值SAR情對綜合服務(wù)業(yè)累計數(shù)額影響情況如表月份2345678910實際值2414045847419231114129814921684預(yù)測值279.5609434.9344608.102732.6269938.3021120.41299.31474.81685.5相對誤差0.1600040.076570.04127110.01130.0165790.0057450.0010020.0115280.0008910程序如下：clc,clearx0=90.3 97.4 109.5 121.7 138.7 142.9;n=length(x0);exp(-2/(n+1)

13、exp(2/(n+1);% 級比范圍1 I ,x0=x0+800;lamda=x0(1:n-1)./x0(2:n)% 落入級比范圍range=minmax(lamda)x1=cumsum(x0);% 做一次累加for i=2:n z(i)=0.5*(x1(i)+x1(i-1);% 均值生成endB=-z(2:n),ones(n-1,1);Y=x0(2:n);u=BYx=dsolve(Dx+a*x=b,x(0)=x0);x=subs(x,a,b,x0,u(1),u(2),x1(1);yuce1=subs(x,t,0:n-1);digits(6),y=vpa(x) %為提高預(yù)測精度，先計算預(yù)測值，、再顯示微分方程的解yuce=x0(1),diff(yuce1)epsilon=x0-yuce %計算殘差 /_ /./ 1 4delta=abs(epsilon./x0) %+算相對誤差/rho=1-(1-0.5*u(1)/(1+0.5*u(1)*lamda % 計算級比偏差值yuce=yuce-800%iS 原數(shù)值y1=156.0996 154.8565 149.4379 148.6303 1