美國(guó)大蕭條時(shí)期1929～1932年

1、1929年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條的原因1929年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條的原因以下摘自美國(guó)吉爾伯著美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)史699702頁(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界有各種各樣的商業(yè)循環(huán)理論，在分析大蕭條的原因時(shí)，眾說(shuō)紛紜，莫衷一是。對(duì)于蕭條原因最好的說(shuō)明，也許就是一個(gè)或幾個(gè)社會(huì)集團(tuán)支出減少的幅度超過(guò)了其它社會(huì)集團(tuán)支出增加的幅度。1929年，消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買了國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值的72%,工商業(yè)者投資消費(fèi)了18%,聯(lián)邦、州和地方政府使用了略少于10%,其余的用于出口。在19291930年，由于投資者和消費(fèi)者減少了大約一百五十億美元的支出，國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值的支出約減少了一百四十億美元。政府支出雖稍有增加，但其影響微不足道。反映投資和消費(fèi)支出有所減少的是：勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)上

2、解雇和失業(yè)增多了，工商業(yè)的銷售額和利潤(rùn)降低了。根據(jù)上述分析，可見(jiàn)只要查明消費(fèi)者支出和企業(yè)投資所以減少的來(lái)由，既能確定這次大蕭條的產(chǎn)生原因了。今天，通過(guò)歷史剖釋，可以清楚看出：在二十年代已經(jīng)存在著當(dāng)時(shí)被人忽視或漠視的若干不利于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的趨向。上面已經(jīng)指出，農(nóng)業(yè)一直沒(méi)有從戰(zhàn)后蕭條中完全恢復(fù)過(guò)來(lái)，農(nóng)民在這個(gè)時(shí)期始終貧困。而且，所謂工業(yè)部門工資水平較高，其中不少是假象。在這十年內(nèi)，新機(jī)器的應(yīng)用把大批工人排擠掉了。例如，在1920-1929年，工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值幾乎增加了50%,而工業(yè)工人人數(shù)卻沒(méi)有增多，交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)職工實(shí)際上還有所減少。在工資水平很低的服務(wù)行業(yè)，工人增加最多，其中毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)也包括了許多因技術(shù)進(jìn)步而

3、失業(yè)的技術(shù)工人。因此那些表示工資略有提高的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字，看來(lái)沒(méi)有把真實(shí)情況反映出來(lái)。由于工農(nóng)群眾是基本消費(fèi)者，這兩類人遇到經(jīng)濟(jì)困難對(duì)消費(fèi)品市場(chǎng)一定會(huì)有影響。在這些情況下，二十年代廣告的擴(kuò)大和分期付款賒銷的增加就會(huì)產(chǎn)生不良后果。分期付款賒銷竭力膨脹消費(fèi)品市場(chǎng)。在1924-1929年，分期付款銷售售額約從二十億美元增為三十五億美元，由此可見(jiàn)其增長(zhǎng)率大得驚人了。無(wú)庸置疑，采用分期付款的賒銷辦法，增加了小汽車、收音機(jī)、家具、家庭電氣用具等耐用消費(fèi)品的銷售額。然而分期付款銷售辦法的推廣使用，也表明這樣一個(gè)事實(shí)：不增加貸款，消費(fèi)品市場(chǎng)就不可能容納工業(yè)部門生產(chǎn)出來(lái)的大量產(chǎn)品。而且，從經(jīng)濟(jì)觀點(diǎn)來(lái)看，這種銷貸方式本

4、身孕育著某種危險(xiǎn)性；只要削減消費(fèi)信貸即分期付款賒銷，消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)置就很可能減少。看來(lái)，1929年就發(fā)生了這種情況。二十年代工業(yè)生產(chǎn)之所以能擴(kuò)大，是由于對(duì)新工廠、新設(shè)備的巨額投資。這項(xiàng)投資使建筑業(yè)、機(jī)床制造業(yè)以及鋼鐵工業(yè)等有關(guān)部門雇用了大批工人。因此，資本支出或投資一減少，各生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)部門的工人就會(huì)大批失業(yè)。到1929年，消費(fèi)品市場(chǎng)容納不了增產(chǎn)的商品，也就不再需要擴(kuò)充廠房和設(shè)備了。例如，據(jù)估計(jì)1929年美國(guó)整個(gè)工業(yè)的開(kāi)工率只達(dá)到80%。在這些條件下，無(wú)怪乎投資額（用1958年美元計(jì)算）從1929年的四百零四億美元降為1930年的二百七十四億美元，進(jìn)而減少到1932年的四十七億美元了。投資的縮減則

5、導(dǎo)致了生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)企業(yè)的破產(chǎn)和工人的失業(yè)。這個(gè)問(wèn)題因住房建筑的減少而更加嚴(yán)重起來(lái)。住房營(yíng)造在1925年達(dá)到登峰造極的地步，此后就江河日下了。1929年動(dòng)工興建的住房只有五十萬(wàn)幢（1925年約有一百萬(wàn)幢）。1927年以后，汽車工業(yè)也急劇衰落。我們不想回答究竟生產(chǎn)資料的生產(chǎn)先下降還是消費(fèi)品的生產(chǎn)先減少達(dá)樣一個(gè)問(wèn)題；顯然，兩者互有影響。生產(chǎn)資料生產(chǎn)部門的工人失業(yè)，會(huì)使消費(fèi)品的銷售額減少，從而導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)品生產(chǎn)部門工人的失業(yè)。而消費(fèi)品銷售額的減少又反過(guò)來(lái)使投資進(jìn)一步縮減，這兩大部類愈演愈烈的相互作用驅(qū)使生產(chǎn)日益下降，失業(yè)率不斷上升。甚至諸如低稅率和高利潤(rùn)等有利因素也可能助長(zhǎng)了危機(jī)自爆發(fā)。現(xiàn)在看來(lái)，那個(gè)時(shí)期

6、增加的收入大半落入少數(shù)人或少數(shù)家族的腰包了。1934年布魯金斯研究所發(fā)表的一篇研究二十年代經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題的論文這樣寫道：美國(guó)呈現(xiàn)出了收入分配日益不均的趨勢(shì)，至少在二十年代前后是如此。這就是說(shuō)，這個(gè)時(shí)期人民群眾的收入有所增長(zhǎng)，而上層階層的收入水平提高得更快。由于隨著上層階層高額收入的實(shí)現(xiàn)，他們的收入中節(jié)約部分增加得比消費(fèi)部分快，也就出現(xiàn)了大富豪及其家族把積累的收入越來(lái)越多地作為投資的趨勢(shì)。”從經(jīng)濟(jì)觀點(diǎn)來(lái)看，二十年代收入的分配有緊縮消費(fèi)來(lái)增加投資的趨向?；仡欉@一段歷史，可以看出消費(fèi)者手頭錢多些，投資者手里錢少些，國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)也許會(huì)穩(wěn)定些。1929年在某種程度上由銀行信用造成的股票市場(chǎng)的繁榮也反映了資金過(guò)剩，

7、使資本家投資于購(gòu)建廠房設(shè)備無(wú)利可圖。二十年代的繁榮，主要?dú)w因于自然資源充裕，工農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)，技術(shù)進(jìn)步，勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率提高，消費(fèi)擴(kuò)大和對(duì)外貿(mào)易興旺。然而，許多美國(guó)人的貧困處境和國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)之存在某些薄弱環(huán)節(jié)，導(dǎo)致了大蕭條的爆發(fā)。盡管如此，直到二十年代未，大多數(shù)美國(guó)人還盲目樂(lè)觀地相信繁榮仍將繼續(xù)下去。評(píng)論：一美國(guó)1920年代是一個(gè)繁榮的時(shí)代，由于繁榮，所以消費(fèi)需求是旺盛的。正是由于這種消費(fèi)需求的旺盛，刺激了投資，并且借著旺盛需求的東風(fēng)，生產(chǎn)者的投資與產(chǎn)品促銷行為有過(guò)之而無(wú)不及。因此就出現(xiàn)了規(guī)模驚人的廣告促銷與分期付款賒銷行為，這種使消費(fèi)者先花未來(lái)錢”的做法潛存著非常大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，一個(gè)是它刺激抬升了資本投資的規(guī)

8、模，另外一個(gè)是消費(fèi)者能否最終付清賒銷款。如果不能付清款項(xiàng)，那么投資就不能獲得合理補(bǔ)償，巨大的投資規(guī)模就有可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)陷于巨大的危機(jī)。在這里要強(qiáng)調(diào)的是：分期付款賒銷的廣告促銷等手段進(jìn)一步造成了旺盛的消費(fèi)需求，而這種需求又必然刺激投資的迅速增長(zhǎng)。而當(dāng)這種消費(fèi)需求最終衰弱下來(lái)時(shí)，這些被消費(fèi)需求抬舉進(jìn)場(chǎng)的資本，就必然陷于危機(jī)的困境。反過(guò)來(lái)說(shuō)，如果沒(méi)有這些旺盛的消費(fèi)行為，就不可能有這么大的投資行為，也不就可能產(chǎn)生1929年的危機(jī)。市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的每次危機(jī)，都是這樣，由高度的消費(fèi)旺盛而引起，沒(méi)有這種消費(fèi)旺盛，就沒(méi)有資本投入，也就沒(méi)有危機(jī)可言。資本以追求利潤(rùn)為唯一目的，但資本的這種目的及由此而引發(fā)的行為，必須要借

9、助于一定的外在條件才能實(shí)現(xiàn)出來(lái)，這個(gè)外在條件，就是消費(fèi)需求旺盛的拉動(dòng)。因此，當(dāng)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)以消費(fèi)為目的而形成一個(gè)熱潮時(shí)，資本則在這個(gè)熱潮中實(shí)施著自己的目的-利潤(rùn)積累。在此，消費(fèi)為社會(huì)整體的目的，而逐利則是資本方面的目的-這是局部目的。這個(gè)道理應(yīng)該給當(dāng)今的我們提供一個(gè)深刻的教訓(xùn)：消費(fèi)需求切不可人為抬升得太過(guò)頭。比如，中國(guó)的“擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需”政策切不可搞過(guò)頭。凡是超出社會(huì)與個(gè)人經(jīng)濟(jì)能力而擴(kuò)大的消費(fèi)需求，必定包含著危機(jī)的因素，因?yàn)檫@種消費(fèi)需求是不可能長(zhǎng)久維持下去的，這樣，在它的刺激下所形成的更大的投資就有可能變成危機(jī)的因素。就象美國(guó)1920年代，通過(guò)信貸消費(fèi)所刺激起一個(gè)龐大的投資，最終演變?yōu)榇笪C(jī)、大蕭條的因

10、素。TheGreatDepression范g明2Family1第5畫”部口口hmguyniat*Vork'sCCWiWorldfichAPBeEhn*,1931SocialIssues,1929-1942America'sfutureappearedtoshinebrightlyformostAmericanswhenHerbertHooverwasinauguratedpresidentin1929.HispersonalqualificationsandpenchantforefficientplanningmadeHooverappeartobetherightmanto

11、headtheexecutivebranch.However,theseedsofadepressionhadbeenplantedinaneraofprosperitythatwasunevenlydistributed.Inparticular,thedepressionhadalreadysproutedontheAmericanfarmandincertainindustries.TheHoovertermwasjustmonthsoldwhenthenationsustainedthemostruinousbusinesscollapseinitshistory.Thestockma

12、rketcrashedinthefallof1929.Onjustoneday,October29,frantictraderssoldoff16,400,000sharesofstock.Atyear'send,thegovernmentdeterminedthatinvestorsinthemarkethadlostsome$40billion.Previoustothe1929collapse,businesshadbeguntofalter.Followingthecrash,theUnitedStatescontinuedtodeclinesteadilyintothemos

13、tprofounddepressionofitshistory.Banksfailed,millionsofcitizenssuddenlyhadnosavings.Factorieslockedtheirgates,shopswereshutteredforever,andmostremainingbusinessesstruggledtosurvive.Localgovernmentsfacedgreatdifficultywithcollectingtaxestokeepservicesgoing.Hoover'sadministrationmadeabadmistakewhen

14、Congress,cavingintospecialinterests,passedtheHawley-SmootTariffActin1930.Themeasurewouldhikeuptariffstoprohibitivelyhighlevels.Thepresidentsignedthebillintolawovertheobjectionsofmorethan1,000Amrlc.MiLeflloriBum*LotAn口出修theirtariffs.Theimpactsoninternationaltradewerecatastrophic.Thisandothercausedint

15、ernationaltradetopreparinginnitgrtoup,MN.1S39worldwide.economists.Everymajortradingnationprotestedagainstthelawandmanyimmediatelyretaliatedbyraisingeffectsgrindnearlytoastandstill;thedepressionspreadMeanwhile,thepresidentandbusinessleaderstriedtoconvincethecitizenrythatrecoverywasimminent,butthenati

16、on'seconomichealthsteadilyworsened.Inspiteofwidespreadhardship,Hoovermaintainedthatfederalreliefwasnotnecessary.Farmpricesdroppedtorecordlowsandbitterfarmerstriedtowardoffforecloserswithpitchforks.Bythedawnofthenextdecade,4,340,000Americanswereoutofwork.Morethaneightmillionwereonthestreetayearla

17、ter.Laid-offworkersagitatedfordrasticgovernmentremedies.Morethan32,000otherbusinesseswentbankruptandatleast5,000banksfailed.Wretchedmen,includingveterans,lookedforwork,hawkedapplesonsidewalks,dinedinsoupkitchens,passedthetimeinshantytownsdubbed"Hoovervilles,"andsomemovedbetweentheminrailro

18、adboxcars.Itwasadesperatetimeforfamilies,starvationstalkedtheland,andagreatdroughtruinednumerousfarms,forcingmassmigration.TheHooveradministrationattemptedtorespondbylaunchingaroad,publicbuilding,andairportconstructionprogram,andincreasingthecountry'screditfacilities,includingstrengtheningtheban

19、kingsystem.Mostsignificantly,theadministrationestablishedtheReconstructionFinanceCorporation(RFC)with$2billiontoshoreupoverwhelmedbanks,railroads,factories,andfarmers.Theactionstakensignified,forthefirsttime,theU.S.government'swillingnesstoassumeresponsibilityforrescuingtheeconomybyovertinterven

20、tioninbusinessaffairs.Nevertheless,theDepressionpersistedthroughoutthenation.AthirstforchangeRdltfflinebnAntooria.IXMdrch1)31Theelectorateclamoredforchanges.TheRepublicansrenominatedHoover,andtheDemocratsnominatedFranklinD.Roosevelt.Hisenergetic,confidentcampaignrhetoricpromotedsomethingspecifically

21、for"theforgottenman"a"newdeal."Rooseveltwentontoadecisivevictory.AthisinaugurationinMarch1933,Rooseveltdeclaredinhisliltingstyle,"Letmeassertmyfirmbeliefthattheonlythingwehavetofearis,fearitselfneedless,unreasoning,unjustifiedterrorwhichparalyzesneededeffortstoconvertretreat

22、intoadvance."SanAntonio,Texas">Thenationneededimmediaterelief,recoveryfromeconomiccollapse,andreformtoavoidfuturedepressions,sorelief,recoveryandreformbecameRoosevelt'sgoalswhenhetookthehelm.AthissidestoodaDemocraticCongress,preparedtoenactthemeasuresheproposed.Congresspassedahistor

23、icseriesofsignificantbills,mostofwhichhadoriginatedintheWhiteHouse,injustshyofawhirlwind100days.Congressalsoenactedseveralimportantreliefandreformmeasuresinthesummerof1935sometimescalledtheSecondHundredDays.Significantlegislation:OneactcreatedthetobeadministeredbyFederalEmergencyReliefAdministration

24、HarryHopkins.Forrelieforforwagesonpublicworks,itwouldeventuallypayoutabout$3billion. Threemillionyoungmenfoundworkinroadbuilding,forestrylaborandfloodcontrolthroughtheestablishmentoftheCivilianConservationCorps(CCC).,TheWorksProgressAdministration(WPA)of1935wouldgrowoutoftheprevioustwoagencies. TheE

25、mergencyBankingActprovidedthepresidentwiththemeanstoreopenviablebanksandregulatebanking. Anotherlawinsuredbankdepositsupto$5,000,andlater,$10,000. AnewHomeOwnersLoanCorporation(HOLC)assistedhomeowners. FarmerswhovoluntarilydecreasedtheacreageofspecifiedcropscouldbecomerecipientsofsubsidiesfromtheAgr

26、iculturalknHup>idbchen.OubuQue,lows.April1UCPclfllcfilGaitoon,W38AdjustmentAdministration(AAA),setupbythegovernment.OneparticularlysignificantactcreatedtheTennesseeValleyAuthority(TVA).Thevast,ambitiousproject,coupledwithagriculturalandindustrialplanning,wouldexploitthegreatriverbasin'sresour

27、ceswithgovernmentdamsandhydroelectricplants.Progresswasmadeonthelaborfront: TheNationalRecoveryAdministration(NRA)cameintobeingthroughasignificantmeasurein1933.TheNRAattemptedtoreviveindustrybyraisingwages,reducingworkhoursandreininginunbridledcompetition.TheNRAwasruledunconstitutionalbytheSupremeCo

28、urtin1935;however,themajorityofitscollectivebargainingstipulationssurvivedintwosubsequentbills. EmployeeswereguaranteedtherighttonegotiatewithemployersthroughunionsoftheirchoosingbytheWagnerActof1935,anditestablishedaLaborRelationsBoardasaforumfordisputeresolution.TheactbolsteredtheAmericanFederatio

29、nofLabor,andpointedtotheinceptionoftheCongressofIndustrialOrganizations(CIO),anotherlabormovement. TheFairLaborStandardsActof1938promulgateda44-hourworkweekwithtime-and-a-halfforovertimeandpeggedaminimumwageof25centsanhour.Theactalsoprovidedthatthethehourswoulddropto40andthewagewouldincrementallyris

30、eto40cents.Inaddition,thebillmadechildlaborundertheageof16川egal.Relief,recoveryandreformalsoaffectedthesocialwelfare.TheU.S.governmentcouldreachoutinthewidestwaytoalleviatehumanmiserysuchwastheassumptionthatunderlaytheNewDeal.Beginningin1935,CongressenactedSocialSecuritylaws(andlateramendments)thatp

31、rovidedpensionstotheaged,benefitpaymentstodependentmothers,crippledchildrenandblindpeople,andunemploymentinsurance.Tofundallthenewlegislation,governmentspendingrose.Spendingin1916was$697million;in1936itwas$9billion.Thegovernmentmodifiedtaxestotapwealthypeoplethemost,whocouldtakeitinstridemosteasily.

32、Therich,conservatives,numerousbusinessmenandthosewhowereallthreevigorouslyopposedtheNewDeal.Buttheelectionof1936triggeredanationwideendorsementofFDR,whocarriedeverystateexceptVermontandMaine.WarloomsFranklinRooseveltsawhisdomesticprograminexorablysupersededbywar,muchlikeapredecessor,WoodrowWilson.Th

33、eLeagueofNationshadfoldedbythetimeFDRtookoffice.Clamoringfortheirperceivedshareoftheworld'spie,Germany,ItalyandJapanmarchedontotheworldstage.GermanycameundertheswayofAdolfHitlerandhisNationalSocialistParty;ItalyembracedBenitoMussolini'sbrandoffascism;andmilitaryrulersgrippedJapan.Thoseleader

34、swerewarlikedictatorscommittedtoforgingvastempiresbyarmedmight.WhenJapaninvadedManchuriain1931andChinain1937,freepeoplesrecoiled.ItalygoosesteppedintoEthiopiain1935.TheThirdReichreoccupiedtheRhinelandin1936andabsorbedAustriain1938.Isolationistsbelievedthenationcouldremainaloofbetweentheoceansandmost

35、Americanswentabouttheirbusinesstryingtodisregardthespecterrisingoverthehorizon.However,thepresidentandhissecretaryofstate,CordellHull,hadnotruckwithisolationismandrepeatedlywarnedthenationthatwhenonecountrywasthreatenedbyanimperialbully,allcountrieswerethreatened.Inthefallof1937,Rooseveltcalledforac

36、tiontoisolatetheaggressivepowers,buthiswordsfellonahard-of-hearingCongressandmostofthepublichadtheirmindselsewhere.Infact,Congressenactedseveralneutralitymeasuresbetween1935and1939thatpreventedthenationfromgivingfinancialcredittoortradingwithanynationengagedinarmedconflict.However,theireffectwastoin

37、viteaggression,becauseifHitlerstruckatFranceorGreatBritain,theycouldnothopefortheUnitedStatestofurnishthemwitharmsormoney.ShermanTank:TopreventtheUnitedStatesfromenteringthewarinwesternEurope,whichbrokeoutwhenHitler'sdivisionsinvadedPolandinSeptember1939,isolationistsestablishedthe"AmericaF

38、irst"Committeein1940.However,administrationleaderscontinuedtocondemnGermanyandtheotherdictatorships.TheystrovetowinLatinAmerica'sandCanada'sfriendship,andcommencedobolsterthearmedservices.Meanwhile,moreAmericansarrivedatthenotionthattheUnitedStatesmightbenexttofallunderGermany'ssway

39、ifwesternEuropefell.Wartransformsthenation'seconomyTheUnitedStateshadnotfullyputitseconomicwoesbehinditbythetimeJapaneseairandseaforcespunchedtheirfistthroughAmerica'sbackdooratPearlHarborinDecember1941.EvenneartheendoftheDepression,unemploymentremainedhigh.The1940censuscounted11.1percentofU

40、.S.headsofhouseholdasunemployed.However,adeep,latentproductivecapacityexistedwithinAmericanindustry.Inanger,thenationswiftlychangedgearsfromapeacetimetowartimefootingthatmobilizedthepopulaceandnumerousindustrialsectors.InJanuary1942thepresidentcalledforunheard-ofproductiongoals.Inthatyearalone,hewan

41、ted60,000warplanes,45,000tanks,20,000antiaircraftgunsand18milliontonsofmerchantshipping.Labor,farms,mines,factories,tradinghouses,investmentfirms,communicationsevenculturalandeducationalinstitutionswereenlistedintothewareffort.Thenationaccumulatedbigmoneyandgeneratedhugenewindustriestomassproducepla

42、nes,ships,armoredvehiclesandnumerousotheritems.Majorpopulationshiftsoccurredaspeopleheadedtonewjobs.ThedrafthelpedbringthearmedforcesoftheUnitedStatestomorethan15millionmembers.Approximately65millionmenandwomenwereinuniformorworkedinwar-relatedjobsbytheendof1943.Massiveunemploymentbecameathingofthep

43、astandtheGreatDepressionwasswallowedupintheworldwideefforttodefeattheAxispowersofJapan,GermanyandItaly.Off-sitesearchresultsfor"TheGreatDepression".Roaring20sandtheGreatDepressionHistoryResources.TheEconomicEffectsOnFamiliesOfTheGreatDepressionTheGreatDepressionTheGreatDepression-DocumentingAm