發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)全冊配套教學(xué)課件 (2)

1、發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)全冊配套教學(xué)課件發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)全冊配套教學(xué)課件 (2) (2)發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)Economics of Development 第一部分 增長與發(fā)展一、發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究對象與研究內(nèi)容二、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的含義與度量三、欠發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的特征與結(jié)構(gòu)差異發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究對象與研究內(nèi)容發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究對象與學(xué)科特征發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的興起與演變 發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究對象發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究對象是發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長問題。狹義發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)：只研究發(fā)展中國家廣義發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)：還研究發(fā)達(dá)國家，側(cè)重維持還研究發(fā)達(dá)國家，側(cè)重維持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展Development Economics VSDevelopmen

2、t Economics VSEconomics of developing countries Economics of developing countries 發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的學(xué)科特征發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)著重探討與長期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與發(fā)展相關(guān)的制度、結(jié)構(gòu)、戰(zhàn)略、政策問題。 如：國際貿(mào)易問題 國際貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有利還是有弊 采取何種貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略與政策能促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì) 持續(xù)增長如：通貨膨脹 如何采取通貨膨脹政策調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的速度發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是將西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)基本原理運(yùn)用于發(fā)展中國家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展問題的分析，但有自己獨(dú)立的研究方法和理論體系： 如： 結(jié)構(gòu)分析：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、地區(qū)結(jié)構(gòu)、貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)； 非經(jīng)濟(jì)因素、政府干預(yù)等發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的學(xué)科特征（c

3、on.）發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的興起與演變 發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的“最老”和“最新”發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的興起發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的演變發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的發(fā)展趨勢1.2.1 發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的“最老”和“最新”發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)這門學(xué)科是最老的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的一個(gè)分支 亞當(dāng)斯密，大衛(wèi)李嘉圖，托馬斯馬爾薩斯，約翰斯圖亞特穆勒 卡爾馬克思 古典經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)又是最新的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的一個(gè)分支（發(fā)展中國家本身就是新生事物、發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是直到20世紀(jì)50、60年代才逐漸發(fā)展起來的）*1.2.2 發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的興起誕生標(biāo)志發(fā)展中國家的意愿 發(fā)達(dá)國家的意愿 發(fā)展中國家的意愿世界殖民體系瓦解，發(fā)展中國家處于不利的經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治地位發(fā)展中國家發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的急切愿望*經(jīng)濟(jì)獨(dú)立和發(fā)展與政治獨(dú)立

4、不同，需要專業(yè)的解答目標(biāo)：建立國際經(jīng)濟(jì)新秩序發(fā)達(dá)國家的意愿早期發(fā)達(dá)國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家研究殖民地經(jīng)濟(jì)主要是為了維護(hù)自身的利益*發(fā)達(dá)國家和發(fā)展中國家之間政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)的相互依存性不斷增強(qiáng)*研究發(fā)展問題，提高發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力，不僅僅是道義方面的原因（對殖民統(tǒng)治還債），更重要的還有發(fā)達(dá)國家自身利益的考慮*1980年，布蘭德報(bào)告”北方與南方：生存計(jì)劃”；“共同的危機(jī)”1.2.3 發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的演變第一階段（1940s末至1960s初） 第二階段（1960s中期至1980s） 第三階段（1980s至今） 第一階段發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)形成與繁榮階段唯資本論唯工業(yè)論唯計(jì)劃論帶來的現(xiàn)實(shí)問題唯資本論認(rèn)為投入三要素中資本的多寡及其

5、形成的快慢是發(fā)展中國家促進(jìn)或阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的首要因素 代表性的理論，如納克斯（Nurkse, R.）的“貧困惡性循環(huán)”理論、納爾遜（Nelson, R.）的“低水平均衡陷阱”理論、繆爾達(dá)爾（Myrdal, C.）的“循環(huán)累積因果關(guān)系”理論，羅森斯坦羅丹的“大推進(jìn)”理論、萊賓斯坦（Leibenstein, H.）的“臨界最小努力”理論、羅斯托的“起飛”理論，錢納里（Chenery, H. B.）的“兩缺口”理論等*唯工業(yè)論工業(yè)化的好處*代表性理論，如劉易斯（Lewis, W. A.）的“二元經(jīng)濟(jì)”理論、羅森斯坦羅丹的“平衡增長”理論和赫希曼（Hirschman, A. O.）的“不平衡增長”理論、

6、普雷維什（Prebisch, R.）的“貿(mào)易條件惡化”理論等等* 唯計(jì)劃論理論（市場不完全、凱恩斯主義、丁伯根技術(shù)）和實(shí)證（蘇聯(lián)）的支持*在“大推進(jìn)”理論、平衡增長理論等思想中，計(jì)劃化、國家干預(yù)等都是應(yīng)有之意 三者的聯(lián)系：工業(yè)化是目標(biāo)資本積累是源泉計(jì)劃是手段；這一時(shí)期發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的特點(diǎn)：一、反新古典主義傾向 發(fā)展中國家經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)存在剛性、時(shí)滯、短缺、低供求彈性等，新古典主義唯市場調(diào)節(jié)的機(jī)制不能發(fā)揮有效調(diào)節(jié)作用。二、強(qiáng)調(diào)內(nèi)向發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略 國際貿(mào)易中的比較優(yōu)勢理論作為一種靜態(tài)分析，關(guān)心的是來自貿(mào)易的靜態(tài)利益，不重視國內(nèi)工業(yè)化所產(chǎn)生的間接動態(tài)利益。中心外圍論和依附論主張采取貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義政策，采取進(jìn)口替代的工

7、業(yè)化發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略帶來的現(xiàn)實(shí)問題受第一階段發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的影響，這一時(shí)期發(fā)展中國家大多走的是一條封閉式的、以物質(zhì)資本積累為核心、高度計(jì)劃化的進(jìn)口替代型工業(yè)化發(fā)展道路 雖其中有些國家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展取得了一定的成果，但總的來說，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展并未達(dá)到預(yù)期結(jié)果，反而暴露出許多新的問題 *反倒是經(jīng)濟(jì)比較開發(fā)、注意發(fā)揮市場作用、實(shí)行出口導(dǎo)向的一些發(fā)展中國家經(jīng)濟(jì)取得了較快的增長 *第二階段新古典主義復(fù)興階段對發(fā)展有了更廣泛的認(rèn)識（范圍擴(kuò)大）*對經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃化的得失重新評價(jià)（缺陷）*糾正對農(nóng)業(yè)的偏見 重新評估市場機(jī)制的作用 強(qiáng)調(diào)對外開放的作用 1、重新確定發(fā)展目標(biāo)第一階段：GDP為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展首要目標(biāo)，收入分配問題可以通過“滴流效應(yīng)”獲

8、得解決第二階段：多維的發(fā)展目標(biāo)：就業(yè)率、貧困比率、分配結(jié)構(gòu)2、糾正對農(nóng)業(yè)的偏見 農(nóng)業(yè)成為“糟糕經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的很大犧牲品” （舒爾茨）農(nóng)業(yè)不僅僅是工業(yè)擴(kuò)張的工具，農(nóng)業(yè)本身的發(fā)展，農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化也是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要目標(biāo)發(fā)展勞動密集型農(nóng)業(yè)對就業(yè)的作用*只要采取加大人力資本投資及合適的政策，農(nóng)民利用土地、勞動和技術(shù)的能力是明顯的、巨大的 *3、重新評估市場機(jī)制的作用 市場機(jī)制三方面的作用*（交換的效率，投入品使用的效率，產(chǎn)出市場的效率）與計(jì)劃機(jī)制相比，市場機(jī)制是一種更為可取的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展工具 重視市場不等于取消計(jì)劃和政府干預(yù)，政府干預(yù)應(yīng)與利用市場機(jī)制相結(jié)合 強(qiáng)調(diào)對外開放的作用 發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對進(jìn)口替代戰(zhàn)略的批評*，比較

9、優(yōu)勢理論重占主流。出口鼓勵戰(zhàn)略的好處，如普雷維什、哈伯勒（Haberler, G.）等的觀點(diǎn)*東南亞和東亞一些國家（馬來西亞、泰國等）的經(jīng)濟(jì)成就 第三階段多樣化發(fā)展時(shí)期結(jié)構(gòu)主義思路新古典主義思路新古典政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)思路激進(jìn)主義 思路結(jié)構(gòu)主義思路認(rèn)為新古典主義經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)對發(fā)展中國家并不適用*普雷維什的“中心外圍”結(jié)構(gòu)理論*貿(mào)易條件的惡化是一個(gè)長期的過程*非均衡的結(jié)構(gòu)異質(zhì)還具有剛性的特點(diǎn)*必須實(shí)現(xiàn)工業(yè)化，實(shí)行進(jìn)口替代戰(zhàn)略*新古典主義思路理論對發(fā)達(dá)國家和發(fā)展中國家都適用*經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展是一個(gè)漸進(jìn)的、連續(xù)的過程 *經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過程又是一個(gè)和諧的、累積的過程 *經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展均衡狀態(tài)是穩(wěn)定的，發(fā)展主要表現(xiàn)為邊際調(diào)節(jié)，而價(jià)格機(jī)制

10、是一切調(diào)節(jié)的原動力重視資本的積累，認(rèn)為儲蓄率是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主要制約條件認(rèn)為貿(mào)易自由化、國際資本流動和國際技術(shù)擴(kuò)散對于發(fā)達(dá)國家和發(fā)展中國家都有利。 主流思路新古典政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)思路 發(fā)展最需要的是努力推動有利于發(fā)展的制度變遷 *現(xiàn)實(shí)的世界交易成本（信息成本、談判成本、履約成本）為正*除了“看不見的手”，還有“看不見的腳”在阻礙“看不見的手”發(fā)揮作用 *激進(jìn)主義思路 對新古典主義的批評比結(jié)構(gòu)主義還要尖銳和徹底 *認(rèn)為發(fā)展中國家的不發(fā)達(dá)狀態(tài)是由不公平的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序所造成的 ，形成了“支配依附”的關(guān)系*“新馬克思主義者”*1.2.4 發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的發(fā)展趨勢“單一經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”的觀點(diǎn) 獨(dú)立的發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是需要的發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)

11、學(xué)的發(fā)展趨勢“單一經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”的觀點(diǎn)用新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)既可以研究發(fā)達(dá)國家的增長和發(fā)展問題，也可以研究發(fā)展中國家的增長和發(fā)展問題，發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)作為一個(gè)單獨(dú)的學(xué)科已經(jīng)沒有存在的意義了 *獨(dú)立的發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是需要的發(fā)達(dá)國家和發(fā)展中國家在很多方面是不同的，發(fā)展中國家之間的同質(zhì)性要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于異質(zhì)性*正像“經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家做的事情”一樣，“發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家做的事情”*由于最近發(fā)生的東南亞金融危機(jī)、拉丁美洲債務(wù)危機(jī)等，人們開始反思新古典發(fā)展理論。新增長理論和日益增多的大數(shù)據(jù)庫的可得性使人們對增長和發(fā)展的學(xué)術(shù)興趣又“復(fù)活”了 發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的發(fā)展趨勢 研究內(nèi)容更趨具體化 *研究范圍區(qū)域國別化 *與主流經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的理論和方法

12、日益融合 *授課方式及成績評定授課方式：授課方式：課堂講授+ 課堂討論 Country Case Studies/Public Debate成績成績評定方法評定方法： 平時(shí)成績40% 期末考試 60% 1234567891011121314151617181920授課授課+討論授課答疑考試參考書目參考書目Growth & Development-With Special Reference to Developing Economies(8th Edition), A.P. Thirlwall,2005英A. P. 瑟爾沃著：增長與發(fā)展（第六版，郭熙保譯），中國財(cái)政經(jīng)濟(jì)出版社，2001

13、年12月第1版Economic Development(8th Edition), Michael P. Todaro, Pearson Eduction Limited,2003.參考書目參考書目Introduction to Development Economics(4th Edition), Subrata Ghatak, Routledge Taylor & Francis Group,2003齊良書編著：發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，中國發(fā)展出版社，2002年10月第1版 美 Charles I. Jones經(jīng)濟(jì)增長導(dǎo)論（第六版，郭熙保譯），北京大學(xué)出版社，2002年10月第1版內(nèi)容結(jié)構(gòu)第一

14、部分第一部分 增長與發(fā)展（增長與發(fā)展（1 1）一、發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究對象與研究內(nèi)容二、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的含義與度量三、欠發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的特征與結(jié)構(gòu)差異第二部分第二部分 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論 (2(24)4)一、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的古典模型二、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的新古典理論三、內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論四、投入要素、生產(chǎn)函數(shù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長 -勞動力，土地、資本、技術(shù)內(nèi)容結(jié)構(gòu)(Con.)第三部分第三部分 結(jié)構(gòu)演變與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展（結(jié)構(gòu)演變與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展（5 57 7）一、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展二、工業(yè)化進(jìn)程與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展三、人口流動、城市化進(jìn)程與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展第四部分第四部分 要素配置與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展要素配置與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展 (8(811)11)一、資本形成與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展二、人

15、力資源與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展三、技術(shù)進(jìn)步與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展四、資源環(huán)境與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展內(nèi)容結(jié)構(gòu)(Con.)第五部分第五部分 國際經(jīng)濟(jì)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展（國際經(jīng)濟(jì)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展（11111414）一、貿(mào)易利益與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展二、貿(mào)易政策與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展三、國際援助與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展四、金融改革與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展第六部分第六部分 市場、政府與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展市場、政府與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展 (15(1518)18)一、資源配置效率：市場機(jī)制與政府作用二、項(xiàng)目評估、社會成本收益分析與影子工資三、投入產(chǎn)出分析四、可持續(xù)發(fā)展與循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)本章小結(jié)發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的興起有哪些歷史背景？發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)經(jīng)過那幾個(gè)演變的階段？發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究思路主要有哪幾種？發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的發(fā)展趨勢是什么？ 第二章 經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的含

16、義與發(fā)展中國家結(jié)構(gòu)特征發(fā)展中國家何為“發(fā)展中國家”？發(fā)展中國家的分類發(fā)展中國家的共有特征何為“發(fā)展中國家”發(fā)達(dá)國家、OECD國家或工業(yè)化國家*落后國家、不發(fā)達(dá)國家（Underdeveloped Countries）、 欠發(fā)達(dá)國家（Less developed Countries，簡寫為LDCs）、 發(fā)展中國家（Developing Countries）*“第三世界”國家*“南方”與“北方”國家*“窮國”和“富國”*新興工業(yè)化經(jīng)濟(jì)體（New Industry Economy）特征：特征：1 1）近期工業(yè)產(chǎn)出增長較快）近期工業(yè)產(chǎn)出增長較快 2 2）近期工業(yè)制品出口輕快）近期工業(yè)制品出口輕快 3 3

17、）近期工業(yè)產(chǎn)值為）近期工業(yè)產(chǎn)值為GNPGNP的比重較大的比重較大 4 4）近期工業(yè)制品出口總出口的比重較大）近期工業(yè)制品出口總出口的比重較大 5 5）近期工業(yè)產(chǎn)值占世界工業(yè)產(chǎn)值比例有大幅度）近期工業(yè)產(chǎn)值占世界工業(yè)產(chǎn)值比例有大幅度提高提高 6 6）近期工業(yè)制品出口占世界制成品出口比例有）近期工業(yè)制品出口占世界制成品出口比例有較大提高較大提高 7 7）近期人均）近期人均GDPGDP水平與發(fā)達(dá)國家的差距較快水平與發(fā)達(dá)國家的差距較快 8 8）近期工業(yè)部門勞動力雇傭比重較大幅度上升）近期工業(yè)部門勞動力雇傭比重較大幅度上升Some Classifications of Developing Countri

18、esThe UNs SystemThe UNs System Least developedLeast developed: 44 poorest countries Developing nationsDeveloping nations: 88 non-oil-exporting countries OPECOPEC:13 petroleum exporting countriesWorld Banks System-per capita incomeWorld Banks System-per capita income Low-Income Countries (LICs, 9656$

19、):69 Some Classifications of Developing CountriesThe OECDs systemThe OECDs system 61 low income countries (LICs) 73 Middle income countries(MICs) 11 newly industrializing countries 13 OPEC countries Low income countriesLow income countriesHigh income countriesHigh income countriesOECD countriesOECD

20、countriesThe Structural Diversity of Developing EconomiesSize( geographic and population ) and income levelIts historical and colonial backgroundIts endowments of physical and human resourcesIts ethnic and religious compositionThe relative importance of its public and private sectorsThe nature of it

21、s industrial structureIts degree of dependence on external economic and political forcesThe distribution of power and the institutional and political structure within the nationSize and income level-ten populated countriesPopulation(Millions)2012 PercapitaGDP(US$)China1350.76091India1236.71489USA313

22、.949965Indonesia246.93557Brazil198.711340Pakistan179.21290Nigria168.81555Russian Federation143.514037Bangladesh154.7747Japan127.646720Historical backgroundDifferent institutional and social patternsIndia-BritishPhilippines-Spanish and AmericanVietnam-FrenchIndonesia-DutchPhysical and Human resources

23、Physical resources:Physical resources: land, ,water, minerals, Energy, geography, climateHuman resources:Human resources: Population; literacy; cultural outlook; Attitude toward work; Access to information; Willingness to innovate; Desire for self-improvementEthnic and religious compositionEthnic an

24、d religious conflictsRacial ethnic or religious discriminationDeveloping countries -Common problemsnPovertynUnemployment and under employmentnLow and stagnating levels of agricultural productivitynImbalances between urban and ruralnEnvironmental degradationnInappropriate educational and health syste

25、mnSevere balance of payments and debtsnSubstantial and increasing dependence on foreign technologies, institutions and systemsPer capita incomeResource: World Bank databasePer capita incomeResource: World Bank databaseA Comparison of Per Capita GNP in Developing Countries Using Official Exchange Rat

26、e and Purchasing Power Parity Conversions,2011ContryExchange RatePPPArgentina4.112.2Brazil1.671.7Burundi1261.07535.3Cameroon471.87248.1Chile483.67402Costa Rica505.66349.6Ghana1.511.1Guatemala7.794.8Indonesia8770.436190.8Kenya88.8137.3Malawi155.7858.6Malaysia3.061.9Nicaragua22.428.3Sierra Leone4230.5

27、31566Sri Lanka110.5752.9Thailand30.4917.1Uganda2522.75811.9Venezuela4.292.9Zambia4860.673847.2Resource: World Bank databaseGrowth rates of GDPAnnual Growth Rate of GDP,2012Country Growth RateCountry Growth RateNorway 3.1Malaysia5.6Iceland1.6Russian Federation3.4Australia3.4Brazil0.9Luxembourg0.3Colo

28、mbia4Canada1.7Venezuela5.5Sweden0.7Saudi Arabia6.8Switzerland1China7.8Ireland0.9Indonesia6.2Belgium-0.3Tajikistan8United States2.2Gabon6.1Japan1.9India3.2Netherlands-1Madagagasca3.1Finland-0.2Haiti2.8Denmark-0.5Kenya4.3United Kingdom0.3Gambia6France0Sao Tome and Principe4Austria0.8Cote d lvoire9.5Re

29、source: World Bank databaseIncome disparity between the richest and poorest people in ChinaIncome Disparity between the Richest and Poorest 20 Percent of the Chinas Population,1981-2012Ratio of Income SharesYearRichest 20%Poorest 20%201247.14.7200248.65.5199040.78198037.98.7Resource: World Bank data

30、baseInequality in selected countriesInequality in selected countries,2009Share of income(%)Gini indexPoorest 20%Richest 20%Mexico4.953.747.7Brazil2.958.654.7Kazakhstan9.238.429South Africa2.768.263.1India8.542.833.4Nigeria4.45448.8Cote d Ivoire5.647.641.5Resource: World Bank database1990-2008nChina:

31、 China: below poverty line of 1.25$/day: 13.1%; below poverty line of 1.25$/day: 13.1%; below poverty line of 2 $/day:29.8% below poverty line of 2 $/day:29.8%lPakistan: below poverty line of 1.25$/day:21%; below poverty line of 1.25$/day:21%; below poverty line of 2 $/day:60.2% below poverty line o

32、f 2 $/day:60.2%lIndia: below poverty line of 1.25$/day: 32.7%; below poverty line of 1.25$/day: 32.7%; below poverty line of 2 $/day:68.7% below poverty line of 2 $/day:68.7%Resource: World population data sheetResource: World population data sheetHealthResource: Human development reportEducation 20

33、10AreaAdult literacy rateTertiaryLow Income 59.87Middle Income81.924Low&middle income93.221High income.70East Asia & Pacific2593.5Europe& Central Asia5598Latin America & Carib3791Middle East & Africa2772.9South Asia1162.8Resource: Human development reportCrude birth rate (live bi

34、rths per 1000 population)Sierra Leono37Ethiopia37Cambodia18Zambia46India23Kenya37Brazil15Mexico19Venezuela21United States13Japan8Resource: Human development reportDependency burden Non productive members of society and therefore must be supported financially by a countrys labor force(usually between

35、 15 to 64)In developed nations 1/3 less developed countries 45% Among which, developed nations 66% are children; developing nations 90%High and rising levels of unemployment and underemploymentUnemployment Rate in Less Developed CountriesCountryYearAverage Pecentage UnemployedBangladesh20095Botswana

36、200617.6Brazil20098.3Chile20117.1Colombia201011.6Ecuador20114.2Kenya19999.8Liberia20103.7Malaysia20103.4Philippines20117Sri Lanka20104.9Tanzania20064.3Resource: World Bank databaseSubstantial dependence on agricultural production and primary-product exportsRegionsPopulation(millions)Urban(%) Rural(%

37、)Labor Force in Agriculture(%)Agricultural Share of GNP(%)World70465347303.1 Europe509742632 United States313.9831721 Japan127.692841 Sub-Saharan Africa910.43763-12 South Asia164931695118 East Asia199250503711 Latin America581.47921156Resource: World Bank database0102030405060708090Non-Asian develop

38、ing countriesDeveloped countriesComposition of World Exports(%) Primary ProductsManufactured ProductsCoutry Imports of goods and services（% of GDP) 2012Exports of goods and services(% of GDP) 2012Merchandise trade (% of GDP)2012High-technology exports (% of manufactured exports)2012Terms of trade(20

39、00=100)2012Norway 27414918157Sweden4349641387United states1814252195Japan1615281760United Kingdom34324718101Costa Rica4237644178Mexico36346417108Russian Federation2229438234Braziauritius675575172Philippines3226474665China2731472673Vietnam90901619100Indonesia2932438134India3224437136Zimb

40、abwe7451761111Camcroon3531455150Chad254159-209Burkina Faso 2921536141Resource: World Bank database經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展兩個(gè)范疇兩個(gè)概念的淵源 兩個(gè)概念的含義 兩個(gè)概念的關(guān)系 兩個(gè)概念的淵源經(jīng)濟(jì)增長并非古已有之，直到近現(xiàn)代才出現(xiàn)*早期的發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家把經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展等同于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，如劉易斯、羅斯托、雷諾茲*20世紀(jì)50和60年代，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與許多社會問題的不協(xié)調(diào)逐漸凸現(xiàn)出來 *70年代以后，發(fā)展的含義得到擴(kuò)充，如古雷特 、阿馬蒂亞森 *到20世紀(jì)80年代，環(huán)境、資源、可持續(xù)發(fā)展、制度等也被納入發(fā)展的概念 *兩個(gè)

41、概念的含義學(xué)術(shù)界對于增長和發(fā)展的概念雖有爭議，但還是有不少地方達(dá)成共識的*經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的含義* 經(jīng)濟(jì)總量即社會財(cái)富的增長經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的含義* 經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的增長與經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化投入結(jié)構(gòu)的變化 簡單勞動復(fù)雜勞動；手工操作機(jī)械化生產(chǎn) 勞動密集型資本密集型；傳統(tǒng)小公司現(xiàn)代跨國公司；產(chǎn)出結(jié)構(gòu)的變化 工業(yè)化進(jìn)程一產(chǎn)、二產(chǎn)、三產(chǎn)的結(jié)構(gòu)變化 城市化進(jìn)程農(nóng)村人口的城市化遷移產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)變化與質(zhì)量提高居民生活水平提高分配狀況得到改善兩個(gè)概念的關(guān)系 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長側(cè)重于數(shù)量，而經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展是一個(gè)既包含數(shù)量又包含質(zhì)量的多維體系概念 一般而言，沒有增長就沒有發(fā)展（當(dāng)然也有個(gè)別的例外）*但僅有增長經(jīng)濟(jì)不一定能發(fā)展 *經(jīng)濟(jì)增長為經(jīng)濟(jì)

42、發(fā)展提供了必要條件，而經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展也有利于經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步增長 *衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與發(fā)展的指標(biāo)衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的指標(biāo)衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的指標(biāo)衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的指標(biāo)人均GNP或GDP的增長率 這一指標(biāo)的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)*衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的指標(biāo) 指標(biāo)體系人均GDP指標(biāo) 綜合發(fā)展指標(biāo)體系 人類發(fā)展指數(shù) 人均GDP指標(biāo) 優(yōu)點(diǎn)是簡單明了 但缺點(diǎn)很多：如統(tǒng)計(jì)項(xiàng)目和價(jià)格不夠真實(shí)；無法反映分配狀況：匯率問題（購買力平價(jià)）；不能反映GDP增長過程中的社會代價(jià)等*綜合發(fā)展指標(biāo)體系 尼維阿羅斯基（Niewiaroski, N. H.）14個(gè)變量的體系、阿爾德曼（Adelman, I.）和莫里斯（Morris, C. T.）41個(gè)變量的體系、聯(lián)合國社會發(fā)展研

43、究所提出的16個(gè)變量的體系 *優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)*人類發(fā)展指數(shù)（HDI）聯(lián)合國開發(fā)計(jì)劃署（UNDP）1990年提出了人類發(fā)展指數(shù)（Human Development Index，簡稱HDI） 包括三個(gè)變量出生時(shí)的預(yù)期壽命、社會教育水平、人均收入，再取平均值 *優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)*n The UNDPs Human Development IndexSTEP 1:STEP 2:STEP 3:SPEP 4 HDI rankHDI valueLife expectancy indexMean years of schoolingGross national income per capitaGNI per capita r

44、ank minus HDI rank20122012201020122012Very High human development (47 countries)1 Norway0.95581.312.648688410 Japan0.91283.611.6325451120 Finland0.89381.710.630277430 Brunei Darussalam0.85578.18.645690-2340 Chile0.81979.39.71498713High human development(46 countries) 50 Uruguay0.79370.611.5133851160

45、 Mexico0.77577.18.512947470 Albania0.74977.110.478222180 Maurtius0.73773.57.213300-1790 Turkey0.72274.26.513710-32Medium Human Development(46 coutries)100 Jordan0.773.58.652728110 Palestine0.67738355920120 Honduras0.63273.46.534268Low Human Development160 Yemen0.45865.92.51820-7170 Malawi0.41854.84.

46、277410180 Central African Republic0.35249.13.57221Resource: Human development report關(guān)鍵概念什么是發(fā)展中國家？發(fā)展中國家有那些同質(zhì)性？經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的區(qū)別和聯(lián)系在哪里？衡量增長和發(fā)展的指標(biāo)有哪些？Theories of Development: A Comparative AnalysisChapter 3Chapter 3Leading Theories of Economic Development: Five ApproachesClassical Scenario 古典經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論Linear-st

47、ages-of-growth model 線性增長模型Neoclassical models 新古典增長模型Endogenous growth 內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型亞當(dāng)斯密與報(bào)酬遞增產(chǎn)出、生活水平提高資本積累利潤的儲蓄工業(yè)和農(nóng)業(yè)的專業(yè)化勞動分工勞動分工決定了勞動生產(chǎn)率。 勞動分工提高勞動生產(chǎn)率有三種途徑： 1、工人工作技能的提升，即邊干邊學(xué)。 2、分工的細(xì)化節(jié)省了在不同工作間轉(zhuǎn)移的時(shí)間。 3、機(jī)器的發(fā)明使同一個(gè)勞動者可以從事多種工作。勞動分工受到市場規(guī)模的限制。 1、如機(jī)器的使用只有在市場規(guī)模較大情況下才有經(jīng)濟(jì)性，否則就會出現(xiàn)剩余產(chǎn)品。 2、自由貿(mào)易對市場規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大有著積極的意義。斯密的報(bào)酬遞增觀

48、點(diǎn)是新內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論的核心思想古典悲觀主義TP*TPOW subsistence wage linePE2W2W1E1N1N2LaborTotal productionOriginal condition:Labor: ON1Production: OPWage:N1W1Surplus:E1W1Demand for labor increaseWages increase to E1N1N1W1According to Malthusian theory of population, population will increase to ON2;Surplus appear again E

49、2W2Equilibrium point: ETechnology development: E*, the day of doom can not be eliminatedEE*Limitations of the classical model The role of technology development has been grossly underestimatedThe Malthusian theory of population growth has been proved to be misleading: whenever wages are above level

50、of subsistence, population will increase?Too aggregated and did not account for the diversities with labor and capital inputThe Linear-Stages TheoryRostows stages of growthThe Harrod-Domar growth modelObstacles and constraintsSome criticisms of the stages modelRostows stages of growthThe Transition

51、from underdevelopment to development can be descried in terms of a series of steps or stages through which all countries must proceed the traditional society the pre-conditions for take-off into self-sustaining growth the take-off the drive to maturity the age of high mass-consumption三種不同的增長率： 實(shí)際增長率

52、g; 有保證的增長率gw; 自然增長率gnn實(shí)際增長率 The Harrod-Domar Model增量資本產(chǎn)出比率儲蓄率 /)/()/(/I/K/YcYSscsYIYSYYg)( 潛在投資供給）計(jì)劃儲蓄sYS KI 投資需求(3.1)(3.2)YvK(3.3)IS 動態(tài)均衡(3.4)v: capital-output ratio; S: saving ratio; S: total saving; Y: total output;K: capital stock; I: total investmentn有保證的增長率：這樣一種增長率將引誘投資有保證的增長率：這樣一種增長率將引誘投資剛好等于

53、計(jì)劃的儲蓄，保持資本完全被就業(yè)，從剛好等于計(jì)劃的儲蓄，保持資本完全被就業(yè)，從而制造商愿意在未來以過去相同的比例進(jìn)行投資而制造商愿意在未來以過去相同的比例進(jìn)行投資The Harrod-Domar ModelIKYvsYS(3.5)YvsY(3.6)wgvsYY(3.7)Harrod-Domar theory of economic growthThe rate of growth of economic output I s determined jointly by the national saving ratio S and national capital-output ratio KT

54、he main obstacle on development is the relatively low level of new capital formation in most poor countriesJustifying massive transfers of capital and technical assistance from developed to less developed nationsSaving and investment is the necessary condition for economic growth but not the suffici

55、ent conditionHow about the ability of converting new capital effectively into high levels of output managerial competence; skilled labor; well-integrated commodity and money market; institutional settings; infrastructuresCriticism of Harrod-Domar modelStability of economic growth-Harrodian knife-edg

56、e保證均衡增長：g=gw一旦偏離均衡，即實(shí)際增長率與有保證增長率出現(xiàn)偏差，則這種偏離不會自行矯正，反而會加重如實(shí)際增長率低于有保證的增長率，在初期儲蓄率相同情況下，實(shí)際的資本產(chǎn)出比大于有保證的資本產(chǎn)出比，將出現(xiàn)資本品過剩，投資受到抑制，儲蓄率進(jìn)一步下降，投資受到抑制，使實(shí)際增長率更低于均衡增長率如實(shí)際增長率高于有保證的增長率，則實(shí)際的資本產(chǎn)出率低于有保證的資本產(chǎn)出率，資本品不足會刺激投資，導(dǎo)致實(shí)際增長率進(jìn)一步增大，更加偏離有保證的增長率，使得資本品更加不足Stability of economic growth-Harrodian knife-edgeStability of economic

57、 growth-Harrodian knife-edge黃金時(shí)代定理: actual growth rate = warranted growth rate = natural growth rate of the labor force. Thus n = s/v is the necessary condition for economic growth. （Joan Robinson： Golden Age rule ，Cambridge University）n自然增長率-取決于勞動力的增長速率和勞動生產(chǎn)率的增長速率 )/()/(/)/log(loglog)/(LYLYLLYYLYLY

58、LYLYBut s, v and n are determined independently and there is nothing that guarantees that s/v will be equal to n. thus the golden rule is very hard to achieve. It is a knife-edge growth rate (very unstable system, with no mechanism to bring the economy back to the equilibrium growth rate). When the

59、economy is growing fast, it continues to grow even faster and goes beyond full employment (i.e. high inflation), but when growth is slow, it continues to grow even slower (i.e. high unemployment). 發(fā)展中國家的情況自然增長率高于有保證的增長率意味著有效勞動力增長高于資本積累速度，導(dǎo)致失業(yè)日益增長意味著計(jì)劃投資高于計(jì)劃儲蓄，產(chǎn)生通貨膨脹壓力要使自然增長率趨近有保證的增長率 1、控制人口規(guī)模 2、控制勞動

60、生產(chǎn)率增長幅度：效率與就業(yè)的沖突 3、提高儲蓄率 4、使用勞動密集型技術(shù)降低所要求的資本產(chǎn)出比Neoclassical growth modelIn the Harrod-Domar growth model, steady-state growth was unstable. In the popular term of the day, it was a knife-edge in the sense that any deviation from that path would result in a further move away from that path Robert M. Solow (1956), Trevor Swan