匯豐銀行-信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理

1、1 HSBC 匯豐銀行匯豐銀行2lRisk averse given Banks high gearing and thin marginl傾向低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，由于銀行高負(fù)債和低利息差lProper goals and measures with controlsl適當(dāng)?shù)哪繕?biāo)和措施及控制lThe Line takes primary (or joint) responsibility of the credit decisionsl 前線(xiàn)部門(mén)對(duì)貸款決定負(fù)主要（或共同）責(zé)任lBurden of proof on the Linel 證明應(yīng)貸款責(zé)任在于前線(xiàn)部門(mén)lNever feel embarrassed

2、 to ask “dumb” questionsl 不用擔(dān)心問(wèn)“愚笨”的問(wèn)題3Prerequisite:先決條件先決條件lSenior managements support (positive intervention?)l高層管理的支持（積極干預(yù)？）高層管理的支持（積極干預(yù)？）lPeople (technical capability, integrity and inter-personal skills)l人員（技術(shù)能力、人格和人際交往能力）人員（技術(shù)能力、人格和人際交往能力）lOrganization and Systeml組織及系統(tǒng)組織及系統(tǒng) Attribute:特征特征lInde

3、pendent 獨(dú)立性獨(dú)立性lNo bottom-line responsibility 沒(méi)有盈利責(zé)任沒(méi)有盈利責(zé)任lProfessional 專(zhuān)業(yè)性專(zhuān)業(yè)性lFirm and fair 堅(jiān)定和公正堅(jiān)定和公正4Board of Directors董事會(huì)董事會(huì)行政總裁（總部）行政總裁（總部）GHQCEOAPHCEO行政總裁（亞太區(qū)）行政總裁（亞太區(qū)）AMHGM總經(jīng)理總經(jīng)理（香港及中國(guó)大陸）（香港及中國(guó)大陸）Line前線(xiàn)部門(mén)前線(xiàn)部門(mén)信貸總經(jīng)理信貸總經(jīng)理GM CreditCCO首席信貸官首席信貸官HD Credit 信貸部門(mén)主管Concurrence認(rèn)同認(rèn)同Approval 審批審批Approval審批

4、審批Approval審批審批Country Risk/Bank Risk國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Market Risk/Credit Risk市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Market Risk/Credit Risk市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Credit信用信用5lCentralized vs Decentralized集權(quán)集權(quán)/分權(quán)分權(quán)l(xiāng)Individual vs Committee (composition and decision making process)個(gè)人個(gè)人/委員會(huì)（債務(wù)組成及決策過(guò)程）委員會(huì)（債務(wù)組成及決策過(guò)程） Factors to conside

5、r: 需要考慮的因素需要考慮的因素 lIndividual / Collective Decision / Responsibilityl個(gè)人個(gè)人/集體決策集體決策/責(zé)任責(zé)任lSenior managements trust 高層管理的信任高層管理的信任lQuality of staff (at centre and in the line) 員工的素質(zhì)員工的素質(zhì) （管理人員（管理人員和一線(xiàn)職員）和一線(xiàn)職員）lSpecialization of staff 員工專(zhuān)業(yè)化員工專(zhuān)業(yè)化lEffectiveness of internal control system 內(nèi)部控制系統(tǒng)的功效內(nèi)部控制系統(tǒng)的功

6、效lQuality of service (e.g. turnaround time) 服務(wù)的質(zhì)量（例如：報(bào)廢服務(wù)的質(zhì)量（例如：報(bào)廢項(xiàng)目時(shí)間）項(xiàng)目時(shí)間）lOthers (fraud prevention etc.) 其他（防范欺詐等）其他（防范欺詐等）6Policy/政策Approval審批Risk Monitoring風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)督Recovery追償Head of CRM信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理部Loans貸款Unhealthy loans不良貸款Review回顧Review回顧7lKey business objectives 主要業(yè)務(wù)目標(biāo)主要業(yè)務(wù)目標(biāo)lStructure and Responsibili

7、ty 結(jié)構(gòu)及職責(zé)結(jié)構(gòu)及職責(zé)lEconomic Outlook 經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期lSectoral Analysis 行業(yè)分析行業(yè)分析lBusiness Strategy and Focus 業(yè)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略和重點(diǎn)業(yè)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略和重點(diǎn)lRisk Assessment and Credit Appetite 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和信貸偏好偏好lLending Guidelines 貸款指南貸款指南lCredit Products, Procedures and Advice 信貸產(chǎn)品、程信貸產(chǎn)品、程序和建議序和建議 8lMarket positioning and risk appetite 市場(chǎng)定位和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏

8、好市場(chǎng)定位和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好 Return 回報(bào)回報(bào) Private Bank Commercial BankSubprime Lender 私人銀行私人銀行 商業(yè)銀行商業(yè)銀行 次級(jí)貸款人次級(jí)貸款人 -Large corporate 大型企業(yè)大型企業(yè)-Middle market 中端市場(chǎng)中端市場(chǎng)-Small business 小型企業(yè)小型企業(yè)-Consumer 消費(fèi)者消費(fèi)者 Risk 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)9lCorporate Banking - Large corporate - Judgemental (plus Rating, KMV, MRA) 公司金融-大型公司-主觀(guān)判斷（加評(píng)分，KMV, MRA) l

9、Commercial Banking Medium sized corporate Judgemental 公司金融-中型企業(yè)-主觀(guān)判斷 lBusiness Banking Small business Scoring 商務(wù)理財(cái)-小型企業(yè)-評(píng)分 lPersonal Financial Services Consumer Scoring 個(gè)人金融服務(wù)-消費(fèi)者-評(píng)分 10Delinquency Rates, All Banks, SA (USA)貸款不良率貸款不良率 美國(guó)所有銀行美國(guó)所有銀行 0246810121491Q191Q392Q192Q393Q193Q394Q194Q395Q195Q396

10、Q196Q397Q197Q398Q198Q399Q199Q300Q100Q301Q101Q3Residential *住房貸款Commercial *商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)貸款C&I Loans工商貸款Total Loans & Leases貸款和租賃總額%11Charge-Off Rates, All Banks, SA (USA)沖銷(xiāo)率沖銷(xiāo)率 所有銀行所有銀行 美國(guó)美國(guó)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.091Q191Q392Q192Q393Q193Q394Q194Q395Q195Q396Q196Q397Q197Q398Q198Q399Q199Q300Q100Q301Q101Q3C

11、ommercial *商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)貸款C&I Loans工商貸款Total Loans & Leases貸款及租賃總額%Residential *住房貸款12Loan Quality in HK香港地區(qū)貸款質(zhì)量香港地區(qū)貸款質(zhì)量-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%NPL % 不良貸款比例Credit card charge-off ratio (annualised)年信用卡沖銷(xiāo)比例Mortgage Delinquency Rate住房貸款不良率Real GDP (year on year % change)年實(shí)際GDP變化率13Corporate and Commercial

12、 Banking 公司金融公司金融 （大型和中（大型和中型企業(yè)）型企業(yè)）lOperating Risks運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Borrower Grade 借款人評(píng)級(jí)借款人評(píng)級(jí)lFinancial Risks (including Projection) (PD) 財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（包括財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)）（違約機(jī)率）（包括財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)）（違約機(jī)率）lAccount Conduct 來(lái)往狀況來(lái)往狀況 lSecurity and Facility Structure抵押品、貸款結(jié)構(gòu)及評(píng)級(jí)抵押品、貸款結(jié)構(gòu)及評(píng)級(jí)Facility Grade 設(shè)施評(píng)級(jí)設(shè)施評(píng)級(jí)(Property + Marketable Securit

13、ies) （財(cái)產(chǎn)和可交易的證財(cái)產(chǎn)和可交易的證券）券） 14lMore vulnerable to economic downturn 易受經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑易受經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑的影響的影響lInformation problematic (low financial transparency and reliability) 信息問(wèn)題（財(cái)務(wù)信息透明度及可信度信息問(wèn)題（財(cái)務(wù)信息透明度及可信度不高）不高）lHigh operating risks (relatively weak in management skills) 高運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（較弱的管理能力）高運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（較弱的管理能力）Characteristics of

14、 the Scorecard 記分卡的特征記分卡的特征lCompanys financials 公司財(cái)務(wù)狀況公司財(cái)務(wù)狀況lCompanys credit history and behavior 公司信用歷史公司信用歷史和表現(xiàn)和表現(xiàn)lCompanys attributes (age, sector, size etc) 公司性質(zhì)公司性質(zhì)（成立時(shí)間的長(zhǎng)短、所屬行業(yè)、規(guī)模等）（成立時(shí)間的長(zhǎng)短、所屬行業(yè)、規(guī)模等）lOwners scores 公司所有者的評(píng)分公司所有者的評(píng)分15英國(guó)小型公司主要業(yè)務(wù)的設(shè)立與終止英國(guó)小型公司主要業(yè)務(wù)的設(shè)立與終止設(shè)立設(shè)立千/每季度終止終止16Criteria Based

15、Lending 根據(jù)準(zhǔn)則所進(jìn)行的信貸根據(jù)準(zhǔn)則所進(jìn)行的信貸lMore commonly for secured products, e.g. mortgage, car loans, HP and loans secured by liquid assets 多用于擔(dān)保產(chǎn)品，例如：住房貸款、汽車(chē)貸款、租賃及多用于擔(dān)保產(chǎn)品，例如：住房貸款、汽車(chē)貸款、租賃及用流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)擔(dān)保的貸款用流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)擔(dān)保的貸款lSecurity coverage 抵押品抵押品/貸款貸款 比例比例lIncome coverage 收入收入/還款還款 比例比例 17Mortgage Loan Quality (HK)香港地區(qū)住房貸款

16、質(zhì)量香港地區(qū)住房貸款質(zhì)量1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%Dec-98Feb-99Apr-99Jun-99Aug-99Oct-99Dec-99Feb-00Apr-00Jun-00Aug-00Oct-00Dec-00Feb-01Apr-01Jun-01Aug-01Oct-01Dec-01Feb-02050100150200250300Mortgage Delinquency Rate住房貸款不良率Unemployment rate失業(yè)率Residential Price Index (1989=100) (RHS)住房?jī)r(jià)格指數(shù) （以1989年為100

17、）18Credit Card Quality信用卡質(zhì)量信用卡質(zhì)量3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%Dec-98 Mar-99 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02-1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000No. of Bankruptcy Petitions破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng)Credit card charge-off ratio (annualised)年信用卡沖銷(xiāo)率Unemployment rate 失

18、業(yè)率Bankruptcy Petitions (RHS) 破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng) （RHS)19lRank ordering 分級(jí)分級(jí)lApplication and Behavioral Scoresl申請(qǐng)信貸和行為評(píng)分申請(qǐng)信貸和行為評(píng)分lGeneric and Customized Scoresl通用評(píng)分和專(zhuān)用評(píng)分通用評(píng)分和專(zhuān)用評(píng)分lCredit card, personal loans, etc 信用卡，個(gè)人信用卡，個(gè)人貸款等貸款等20lManagement Information 管理信息管理信息(CPAN, IBIS, REMIND, SCOPE, etc)lGrade classificatio

19、n / migrationl評(píng)級(jí)分類(lèi)評(píng)級(jí)分類(lèi)/變動(dòng)情況變動(dòng)情況lScore distribution / flow ratel分值分布分值分布/流動(dòng)率流動(dòng)率211. Interest margin: hurdle rates, e.g. bonds. 利率邊際：障利率邊際：障礙率，例如：債券礙率，例如：債券2. RORA: return on the overall relationship 總體關(guān)系的總體關(guān)系的回報(bào)回報(bào)3. EP: cost of capital 經(jīng)濟(jì)利潤(rùn)：資本成本經(jīng)濟(jì)利潤(rùn)：資本成本 Factors to consider: 考慮因素考慮因素lPD (Borrowers gr

20、ade) 違約機(jī)率違約機(jī)率lLGD 損失比率損失比率lTerm 年期年期lCost of capital 資本成本資本成本lCompetition 競(jìng)爭(zhēng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)lBusiness potential 發(fā)展?jié)摿Πl(fā)展?jié)摿?2Objective 目標(biāo)目標(biāo)Risk vs Relationship 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 或或 關(guān)系關(guān)系Strategy 戰(zhàn)略戰(zhàn)略Rehabilitation OR Exit 貸款康復(fù)貸款康復(fù)或退出或退出23Workout - Factors for success 債務(wù)重組債務(wù)重組 - 成功的因素成功的因素- legal system (Scheme of Arrangement, Ind

21、ividual Voluntary Arrangement, Bankruptcy Law)- 法律體系法律體系 (債務(wù)安排計(jì)劃、個(gè)人自愿安排、破產(chǎn)法）債務(wù)安排計(jì)劃、個(gè)人自愿安排、破產(chǎn)法）- professional support (lawyer, accountant, financial advisor, asset search agent, debt collector)- 專(zhuān)業(yè)支持專(zhuān)業(yè)支持 （律師、會(huì)計(jì)師、財(cái)務(wù)顧問(wèn)、資產(chǎn)搜尋代理、債務(wù)追償（律師、會(huì)計(jì)師、財(cái)務(wù)顧問(wèn)、資產(chǎn)搜尋代理、債務(wù)追償人）人）- customer self-rescue (transparency, commitment and cooperation)- 客戶(hù)客戶(hù) - 自救措施自救措施 （透明、承擔(dān)與合作）（透明、承擔(dān)與合作） - multi-bank - supportive, expeditious and equitable the Hong Kong Approach- 多頭銀行多頭銀行 -支持態(tài)度、迅速及公平支持態(tài)度、迅速及公平 （香港原則）（香港原則）24Feedback 回饋回饋 - lessons learnt - Credit Alert (early warning signs), training course- 吸