計(jì)量-我國(guó)稅收收入影響因素的實(shí)證研究

1、?計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)?期末論文我國(guó)稅收收入影響因素的實(shí)證研究姓名：郭瑞班級(jí)：2021國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易1班學(xué)號(hào)：1002021023時(shí)間：2021年12月16日摘要：稅收是我們國(guó)財(cái)政收入的根本因素，也影響著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的開展。本文通過(guò)查閱相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)以及搜索相關(guān)的網(wǎng)站信息對(duì)分析我國(guó)稅收收入影響因素進(jìn)行一系列的文獻(xiàn)綜述，并通過(guò)Eviews計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)軟件對(duì)稅收收入的影響因素包括選取國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、財(cái)政支出、商品零售價(jià)格指數(shù)進(jìn)行分析，得出相關(guān)結(jié)論并對(duì)我國(guó)財(cái)政收入方面給出一些建議。關(guān)鍵詞：稅收收入、國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、財(cái)政支出、商品零售價(jià)格指數(shù)、計(jì)量分析目錄 TOC o 1-4 h z u HYPERLINK l _Toc343

2、456249 引言 PAGEREF _Toc343456249 h 3 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456250 一、理論綜述 PAGEREF _Toc343456250 h 4 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456251 一文獻(xiàn)綜述 PAGEREF _Toc343456251 h 4 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456252 1.國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值對(duì)稅收收入的影響 PAGEREF _Toc343456252 h 4 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456253 2.財(cái)政收入對(duì)稅收收入的影響 PAGEREF _Toc343456253 h 4 HYPERLINK l

3、 _Toc343456254 二現(xiàn)狀分析 PAGEREF _Toc343456254 h 4 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456255 二、實(shí)證分析 PAGEREF _Toc343456255 h 5 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456256 一變量選取 PAGEREF _Toc343456256 h 5 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456257 二數(shù)據(jù)取得 PAGEREF _Toc343456257 h 5 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456258 三模型的建立與構(gòu)造 PAGEREF _Toc343456258 h 6 HYPERLINK l _Toc

4、343456259 四模型檢驗(yàn) PAGEREF _Toc343456259 h 8 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456260 1.經(jīng)濟(jì)意義檢驗(yàn) PAGEREF _Toc343456260 h 8 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456261 2.統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn) PAGEREF _Toc343456261 h 8 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456262 3.計(jì)量檢驗(yàn) PAGEREF _Toc343456262 h 8 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456263 1多重線性檢驗(yàn) PAGEREF _Toc343456263 h 8 HYPERLINK l _Toc343

5、456264 2鄒氏檢驗(yàn) PAGEREF _Toc343456264 h 13 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456265 3異方差檢驗(yàn) PAGEREF _Toc343456265 h 14 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456266 4自相關(guān)檢驗(yàn) PAGEREF _Toc343456266 h 20 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456267 五模型修正 PAGEREF _Toc343456267 h 22 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456268 三、結(jié)論分析及政策建議 PAGEREF _Toc343456268 h 22 HYPERLINK l _Toc

6、343456269 一結(jié)論分析 PAGEREF _Toc343456269 h 22 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456270 二政策建議 PAGEREF _Toc343456270 h 23 HYPERLINK l _Toc343456271 參考文獻(xiàn) PAGEREF _Toc343456271 h 24引言自1985年實(shí)行的利改稅的稅改以來(lái)，稅收占財(cái)政收入的比重逐年上升，90年代已高達(dá)96%。而1994年實(shí)施的全面稅制改革又使得稅收收入有了新的變化。稅收組織財(cái)政收入、調(diào)控經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行和監(jiān)督經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)職能的發(fā)揮，成為國(guó)家非常關(guān)心的問(wèn)題。從進(jìn)入新世紀(jì)，我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)開展面臨著巨大的機(jī)遇和挑戰(zhàn)。

7、在新經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下，基于知識(shí)和信息的產(chǎn)業(yè)開展迅猛，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)開展一體化日漸深入，中國(guó)成功參加WTO。新形勢(shì)下的經(jīng)濟(jì)開展是經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定和協(xié)調(diào)增長(zhǎng)的結(jié)果，由于稅收具有聚財(cái)與調(diào)控的功能，因而它在實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)開展的過(guò)程中將發(fā)揮非常重要的作用，研究稅收收入的影響因素對(duì)我國(guó)有著重要的意義。一、理論綜述一文獻(xiàn)綜述高淑紅在?我國(guó)稅收收入的影響因素分析?一文中運(yùn)用多重共線性檢驗(yàn)和加權(quán)最小二乘估計(jì)法等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)檢驗(yàn)方法對(duì)稅收收入與其影響因素做了相關(guān)計(jì)量分析，得出了以下分析結(jié)果與結(jié)論：1.國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值對(duì)稅收收入的影響國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值與稅收收入成正相關(guān)。這說(shuō)明，國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增加會(huì)帶來(lái)稅收的增加。正如前面所述，經(jīng)濟(jì)是稅收收入的源泉，稅

8、收的增長(zhǎng)離不開經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)，稅收收入受經(jīng)濟(jì)開展的影響，而國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值在很大程度上就反映我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)的開展?fàn)顩r。2.財(cái)政收入對(duì)稅收收入的影響稅收收入與財(cái)政支出顯著的正相關(guān)。這說(shuō)明，隨著財(cái)政支出的增加，稅收收入也會(huì)相應(yīng)的增加，而且，其系數(shù)為0.7009，遠(yuǎn)高于國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的系數(shù)。估計(jì)其原因，因?yàn)閲?guó)家跟政府為了拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，常常實(shí)施加大財(cái)政支出力度，從而使經(jīng)濟(jì)得到開展，各項(xiàng)稅收相應(yīng)的都有所增加，進(jìn)而增加了稅收的總收入。二現(xiàn)狀分析我國(guó)的社會(huì)主義市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制還不完善，各方面運(yùn)作還需要政府實(shí)施一定的宏觀職能，職能的有效實(shí)施得宜于充足的財(cái)政力量，其中稅收占很大比重。1、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)仍是稅收收入高增長(zhǎng)的主要決定因素,

9、 稅收收入與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間有著正的線性相關(guān)性。另外,我國(guó)稅收收入增長(zhǎng)具有較大的慣性。2、我國(guó)稅收收入增長(zhǎng)速度略慢于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度,稅制改革勢(shì)在必行。另外, 稅收是我國(guó)財(cái)政收入的主要來(lái)源, 稅收收入大幅度增長(zhǎng),通過(guò)財(cái)政支出政策的運(yùn)用,有力支持了經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)各項(xiàng)事業(yè)的開展。二、實(shí)證分析一變量選取為了全面反映中國(guó)稅收增長(zhǎng)的全貌，選擇包括中央和地方稅收的“國(guó)家財(cái)政收入中的“各項(xiàng)稅收簡(jiǎn)稱“稅收收入作為被解釋變量，以反映國(guó)家稅收的增長(zhǎng)；選擇“國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值GDP作為經(jīng)濟(jì)整體增長(zhǎng)水平的代表；選擇中央和地方“財(cái)政支出作為公共財(cái)政需求的代表；選擇“商品零售物價(jià)指數(shù)作為物價(jià)水平的代表。Y稅收收入億元X1國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值億元X

10、2國(guó)家財(cái)政支出億元X3商品零售價(jià)格指數(shù)以1980年為基期100二數(shù)據(jù)取得以下數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源于?中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒?，單位均為億元。年 份國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值國(guó)家財(cái)政支出商品零售物價(jià)指數(shù)上年=100)稅收收入19804545.6241228.83106571.719814891.5611138.41102.4629.8919825323.3511229.98101.9700.0219835962.6521409.52101.5775.5919847208.0521701.02102.8947.3519859016.0372004.25108.82040.79198610275.182204.911062090.73

11、198712058.622262.18107.32140.36198815042.822491.21118.52390.47198916992.322823.78117.82727.4199018667.823083.59102.12821.86199121781.53386.62102.92990483742.2105.43296.91199335333.924642.3113.24255.3199448197.865792.62121.75126.88199560793.736823.72114.86038.04199671176.597937.55106.169

12、09.82199778973.039233.56100.88234.04199884402.2810798.1897.49262.8199989677.0513187.679710682.58200099214.5515886.598.512581.512001109655.218902.5899.215301.382002120332.722053.1598.717636.452003135822.824649.9599.905920017.312004159878.328486.89102.8062257182005183867.933930.28100.77743086620062108

13、7140422.73101.028237636表1. 1980-2006年我國(guó)稅收收入相關(guān)因素統(tǒng)計(jì)表三模型的建立與構(gòu)造在EVIEWS軟件中輸入數(shù)據(jù)，觀察Y與三個(gè)解釋變量X1、X2、X3之間的散點(diǎn)圖，如圖1、圖2、圖3所示：圖1圖2圖3由以上散點(diǎn)圖發(fā)現(xiàn)存在較強(qiáng)的線性關(guān)系，故此選擇建立線性模型。建立模型：、利用EVIEWS軟件對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行普通最小二乘回歸，得到如圖4結(jié)果：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/16/12 Time: 12:50Sample: 1980 2006Included observations: 27Variab

14、leCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.C-6357.3062589.143-2.4553710.0221X1-0.0111910.014037-0.7972610.4335X20.9670820.07682112.588750.0000X357.1184124.003452.3795920.0260R-squared0.994954Mean dependent var8681.087Adjusted R-squared0.994296S.D. dependent var9909.343S.E. of regression748.4057Akaike in

15、fo criterion16.20972Sum squared resid12882553Schwarz criterion16.40170Log likelihood-214.8312F-statistic1511.718Durbin-Watson stat0.691548Prob(F-statistic)0.000000圖4Y = -6357.306 - 0.011191*X1 + 0.967082*X2 + 57.11841*X3 2589.143 0.014037 0.076821 24.00345t =(-2.455371) (-0.797261) (12.58875) (2.379

16、592)=0.994954 =0.994296 F=1511.718四模型檢驗(yàn)1.經(jīng)濟(jì)意義檢驗(yàn)我國(guó)稅收收入與財(cái)政支出及商品零售物價(jià)指數(shù)呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系，當(dāng)國(guó)內(nèi)其他因素不變時(shí)，財(cái)政支出每增加1單位，我國(guó)稅收收入增加0.967082單位；當(dāng)其他因素不變時(shí)，商品零售物價(jià)指數(shù)每增加1單位，我國(guó)稅收收入增加57.11841單位，兩者與稅收收入呈正相關(guān)符合現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)意義，但模型中國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值與稅收收入呈負(fù)相關(guān)，不符合現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)意義。2.統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)由=0.994954 ，=0.994296與1十分接近，說(shuō)明模型擬合優(yōu)度很好。F統(tǒng)計(jì)量等于1511.718大于5%顯著性水平下F3，23的臨界值3.03，說(shuō)明模型整體的顯著

17、性較高。除X1外，X2與X3的t檢驗(yàn)值均大于5%顯著性水平下自由度為23的臨界值1.711，通過(guò)了變量的顯著性檢驗(yàn)。故還須對(duì)模型進(jìn)行計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)檢驗(yàn)并作出修正。3.計(jì)量檢驗(yàn)1多重線性檢驗(yàn)對(duì)各解釋變量進(jìn)行多重共線性檢驗(yàn)利用EVIEWS軟件得到各變量間相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣表：X1X2X3X110.984833-0.407265X20.9848331-0.416781X3-0.407265-0.4167811表2. X1、X2、X3相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣表從系數(shù)矩陣表中看出，X1與X2之間的相關(guān)系數(shù)較高，可能存在多重共線性。修正多重共線性.用EVIEWS分別對(duì)Y與各解釋變量X1、X2、X3做最小二乘回歸：Depende

18、nt Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/16/12 Time: 14:11Sample: 1980 2006Included observations: 27VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.C-1143.176559.4057-2.0435540.0517X10.1610650.00658424.463690.0000R-squared0.959902Mean dependent var8681.087Adjusted R-squared0.958298S.D. dependent var

19、9909.343S.E. of regression2023.592Akaike info criterion18.13432Sum squared resid1.02E+08Schwarz criterion18.23031Log likelihood-242.8134F-statistic598.4724Durbin-Watson stat0.170737Prob(F-statistic)0.000000圖5Y = -1143.176 + 0.161065 * X1 559.4057 0.006584=0.959902 DW=0.170737Dependent Variable: YMet

20、hod: Least SquaresDate: 12/16/12 Time: 14:13Sample: 1980 2006Included observations: 27VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.C-292.7317212.2144-1.3794150.1800X20.8925750.01434062.244310.0000R-squared0.993589Mean dependent var8681.087Adjusted R-squared0.993332S.D. dependent var9909.343S.E. of r

21、egression809.1614Akaike info criterion16.30106Sum squared resid16368556Schwarz criterion16.39705Log likelihood-218.0643F-statistic3874.355Durbin-Watson stat0.501126Prob(F-statistic)0.000000圖6Y = -292.7317 + 0.892575 * X2 (212.2144) (0.014340)=0.993589 DW=0.501126Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least Sq

22、uaresDate: 12/16/12 Time: 14:14Sample: 1980 2006Included observations: 27VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.C68011.8528622.302.3761840.0255X3-564.9916272.0256-2.0769790.0482R-squared0.147161Mean dependent var8681.087Adjusted R-squared0.113047S.D. dependent var9909.343S.E. of regression9332

23、.439Akaike info criterion21.19157Sum squared resid2.18E+09Schwarz criterion21.28756Log likelihood-284.0862F-statistic4.313843Durbin-Watson stat0.179687Prob(F-statistic)0.048232圖7Y = 68011.85 + 564.9916 * X3 (28622.30) (272.0256)=0.147161 DW=0.179687以上3個(gè)方程根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論和統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)得出，財(cái)政支出X2是最重要的解釋變量t檢驗(yàn)值=62.24431也最大

24、，從而得出最優(yōu)簡(jiǎn)單回歸方程Y=f(X2)。.對(duì)模型進(jìn)行逐步回歸，在初始模型的根底上參加解釋變量X1與X3，得到如下回歸結(jié)果：參加X(jué)1，Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/16/12 Time: 14:32Sample: 1980 2006Included observations: 27VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.C-218.4640240.3033-0.9091180.3723X1-0.0105150.015337-0.6855710.4996X20.9489780

25、.08353911.359650.0000R-squared0.993712Mean dependent var8681.087Adjusted R-squared0.993188S.D. dependent var9909.343S.E. of regression817.8773Akaike info criterion16.35574Sum squared resid16054157Schwarz criterion16.49972Log likelihood-217.8025F-statistic1896.345Durbin-Watson stat0.526704Prob(F-stat

26、istic)0.000000圖8Y = -218.4640 + -0.010515 *X1 + 0.948978 * X2(240.3033) (0.015337) (0.083539)=0.993712參加X(jué)3,Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/16/12 Time: 14:37Sample: 1980 2006Included observations: 27VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.C-6394.6562568.992-2.4891690.0201X20.9

27、069500.01448062.636270.0000X356.7307423.815652.3820780.0255R-squared0.994815Mean dependent var8681.087Adjusted R-squared0.994383S.D. dependent var9909.343S.E. of regression742.7027Akaike info criterion16.16291Sum squared resid13238574Schwarz criterion16.30689Log likelihood-215.1993F-statistic2302.21

28、2Durbin-Watson stat0.652300Prob(F-statistic)0.000000圖9Y = -6394.656 + 0.906950 * X2 + 56.73074 * X3 (2568.992) (0.014480) (23.81565)=0.994815由以上數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)成表格如下：(X1)(X2)(X3)Y=f(X2)-292.7317(212.2144)0.892575(0.014340)0.993589Y=f(X1,X2)-218.4640(240.3033)-0.010515(0.015337)0.948978(0.083539)0.993712Y=f(X3,X2

29、)-6394.656(2568.992)0.906950(0.014480)56.73074(23.81565)0.994815Y=f(X1,X2,X3)-6357.306(2589.143)-0.011191(0.014037)0.967082(0.076821)57.11841(24.00345)0.994954表3. 稅收收入模型估計(jì)結(jié)果分析：在最優(yōu)簡(jiǎn)單回歸方程Y=f(X2)中引入X1，值略有提高。雖然X2與X1高度相關(guān)，在X1的引入對(duì)參數(shù)影響不大，的符號(hào)不滿意，可以是“多余變量，暫時(shí)刪除；模型中引入X3，使值由0.993589提升到0.994815，正號(hào)也合理，進(jìn)行t檢驗(yàn)，不顯著。從經(jīng)

30、濟(jì)理論分析，X3應(yīng)該是重要變量，雖然X2與X3高度相關(guān)，但不影響的顯著性和穩(wěn)定性，因此，可能是“有利變量，暫時(shí)保存；最后在Y=f(X3,X2)的根底上引入X1，=0.994954幾乎沒(méi)有增加，其他兩個(gè)參數(shù)系數(shù)沒(méi)有多大影響，可以確定X1是多余變量，應(yīng)從模型中刪除。得出最后回歸模型是：Y = -6394.656 + 0.906950 * X2 + 56.73074 * X3 (2568.992) (0.014480) (23.81565)=0.994815由于剔除了變量X1，故模型已不存在多重共線性，且各解釋變量前得系數(shù)均符合經(jīng)濟(jì)意義，模型擬合度上升，各變量t檢驗(yàn)值上升。在其他因素保持不變的情況下

31、，財(cái)政支出每增加1億元，商品零售物價(jià)指數(shù)增加1%，稅收收入增加57.6377億元。2鄒氏檢驗(yàn)考慮到1980-2006年時(shí)間跨度較大，政府財(cái)政支出及商品零售物價(jià)指數(shù)均發(fā)生了較大的變化，有必要對(duì)模型進(jìn)行參數(shù)的穩(wěn)定性檢驗(yàn)。將數(shù)據(jù)分為1980-1992年和1993-2006年兩組分別進(jìn)行普通最小二乘回歸結(jié)果如下：1980-1992年：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/16/12 Time: 15:47Sample: 1980 1992Included observations: 13VariableCoefficientStd. Er

32、rort-StatisticProb.C-3271.7351116.480-2.9304020.0150X21.0799520.07083115.246950.0000X325.7728610.765052.3941240.0377R-squared0.965039Mean dependent var1855.634Adjusted R-squared0.958047S.D. dependent var999.6892S.E. of regression204.7616Akaike info criterion13.68074Sum squared resid419273.0Schwarz c

33、riterion13.81112Log likelihood-85.92483F-statistic138.0159Durbin-Watson stat1.601545Prob(F-statistic)0.000000圖10記此時(shí)的殘差平方和為RSS1=4192731993-2006年：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/16/12 Time: 16:10Sample: 1993 2006Included observations: 14VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.C

34、-10058.024408.677-2.2814140.0434X20.9409590.02693934.929190.0000X384.4832740.020972.1109750.0585R-squared0.992858Mean dependent var15019.01Adjusted R-squared0.991560S.D. dependent var10277.24S.E. of regression944.1875Akaike info criterion16.72594Sum squared resid9806391.Schwarz criterion16.86288Log

35、likelihood-114.0816F-statistic764.6048Durbin-Watson stat0.739942Prob(F-statistic)0.000000圖11記此時(shí)的殘差平方和為RSS2=9806391結(jié)合首次回歸的結(jié)果中殘差平方和RSSR=13238574，根據(jù)鄒氏參數(shù)穩(wěn)定性檢驗(yàn)的方法構(gòu)造F統(tǒng)計(jì)量： = =2.06(1)=3.84,所以隨機(jī)干擾項(xiàng)存在自相關(guān)。又回歸系數(shù)都顯著不為0，說(shuō)明存在一階自相關(guān)。自相關(guān)修正【科克倫奧克特迭代法】一次迭代得：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/16/12 Time:

36、 19:19Sample (adjusted): 1981 2006Included observations: 26 after adjustmentsConvergence achieved after 11 iterationsVariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.C-3345.6632610.491-1.2816220.2133X20.9568760.05300418.052840.0000X322.0507920.922291.0539380.3033AR(1)0.8613830.1591145.4136350.0000R-squa

37、red0.997405Mean dependent var8992.987Adjusted R-squared0.997051S.D. dependent var9969.515S.E. of regression541.3803Akaike info criterion15.56676Sum squared resid6448038.Schwarz criterion15.76031Log likelihood-198.3679F-statistic2818.600Durbin-Watson stat1.623261Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Inverted AR Roots.86圖22可見(jiàn)=0.997405,說(shuō)明擬合優(yōu)度很高，且