羅賓斯管理學(xué)計(jì)劃章節(jié)ppt課件

1、“A man who does not plan long ahead will find trouble at his door Confucius人無遠(yuǎn)慮必有近憂-孔子1Part II 方案與決策 Planning & Decision makingFoundations of planning 規(guī)劃根底Planning tools and techniques 規(guī)劃的方法Managers as decision makers 決策Strategic management 戰(zhàn)略2Foundations of Planning規(guī)劃/決策/方案任務(wù)Chapter3Contents- Found

2、ations of PlanningThe What and Why of PlanningGoals and PlansSetting Goals and Developing PlansPlanning tools and techniques4The What and Why of Planning 什么是規(guī)劃為何需求規(guī)劃51.1 What Is Planning?D Planning 方案任務(wù)，規(guī)劃A primary managerial activity that involves:Defining the organizations goalsEstablishing an ove

3、rall strategies for achieving those goalsDeveloping plans for organizational work activities.方案任務(wù)是確定目的、制定實(shí)現(xiàn)這些目的的總體戰(zhàn)略，以及制定組織的任務(wù)方案等活動(dòng)。Concerned with both ends and means6Types of planningInformal: not written down, short-term focus; specific to an organizational unit.Formal: In formal planning, specifi

4、c goals covering a period of years are defined. These goals are written, specific, shared with organizational members to reduce ambiguity and create a common understanding about what needs to be done. Specific action plans (how the goals will be reached.)The term planning in this book, we do mean fo

5、rmal planning7Essentials of planning 規(guī)劃的根本要素Robert Kreitner: Planning is the process of coping with uncertainty by formulating future courses of action to achieve specified results.規(guī)劃是為了應(yīng)對(duì)未來不確定性獲得特定目的而采取行動(dòng)的過程。The essentials of planning include:Organization mission, 組織使命Types of planning, 規(guī)劃類型Objecti

6、ves (goals), 目的Priorities, 優(yōu)先重點(diǎn) Planning/control cycles 規(guī)劃周期Strategy 戰(zhàn)略8Mission the start point of setting goalsMission 使命: a statement of the purpose of an organizationthe firms reason for being 公司存在的意義Albaba9Well-written mission statement that does the following things:Defines your organization fo

7、r key stakeholdersCreates an inspiring vision of what the organization can be and can doOutlines how the vision is to be accomplished (path )Establishes key prioritiesStates a common goal and fosters a sense of togethernessCreates philosophical anchor for all organizationa activitiesGenerates enthus

8、iasm and a “can do attidudeEmpowers present and future organization members to believe that every individual is the key to successWell written mission statment10StrategyStrategiesThe decisions and actions that determine the long-run performance of an organization. Robbins, 9e)戰(zhàn)略是決議一個(gè)組織的長期績效的決策和行動(dòng)。Th

9、e plans for how the organization will do whatever its in business to do, how it will compete successfully, and how it will attract and satisfy its customers in order to achieve its goals. Bobbins. 10-11e戰(zhàn)略是組織為了實(shí)現(xiàn)其目的的一些方案，包括從事何種業(yè)務(wù)，如何與其他組織競爭中獲勝，如何吸引和滿足顧客從而實(shí)現(xiàn)公司的目的。11Goals (also Objectives，目的)Desired ou

10、tcomes or targets. (for individuals, groups, or entire organizations)希望的結(jié)果Provide direction and evaluation performance criteria12制定規(guī)劃的根本內(nèi)容之二 5W1HWhat- 做什么？目的、內(nèi)容Why (or/and For Whom)為何做？Who- 誰去做？Where- 何地做？When- 何時(shí)做？How 如何做？131. 2 Why Do Managers PlanPurposes of Planning:Provides direction 提供目的方向Redu

11、ces uncertainty 減少不確定性Minimizes waste and redundancy 減少浪費(fèi)Sets the goals or standards used for controlling 制定控制規(guī)范P205141.3 Planning and PerformanceThe Relationship Between Planning and PerformanceFormal planning is associated with: Higher profits and returns on assets.Positive financial results.The q

12、uality of planning and implementation affects performance more than the extent of planning.The external environment can reduce the impact of planning on performance.Formal planning must be used for several years (4 years in the textbook) before planning begins to affect performance.高質(zhì)量規(guī)劃提升績效，環(huán)境會(huì)降低規(guī)劃

13、的績效，規(guī)劃長期才干見效。152. Goals and Plans目的和方案162.1 Types of GoalsD Goals (also Objectives，目的)Desired outcomes or targets. (for individuals, groups, or entire organizations)Provide direction and evaluation performance criteria17Criteria for Objectives (goals) 目的的規(guī)范Singular result 單個(gè)結(jié)果Specific 詳細(xì)Measurable 可

14、丈量Target date 截止日期Difficult but achievable 可現(xiàn)實(shí)性 Attainable， Achievable Acceptance and commitment 接受與承諾18目的管理的SMART原那么 Specific Measurable AttainableAchievable RelevantRealistic Result 相關(guān)性目的努力承諾 Time-based19討論：兩個(gè)目的足協(xié)副主席：中國足球2050年將達(dá)世界最高程度上海大學(xué)：建立成為世界一流特征鮮明的綜合性研討型大學(xué)。20Characteristics of Well-designed Go

15、alsWritten in terms of outcomes, not actionsFocuses on the ends, not the means.Measurable and quantifiableSpecifically defines how the outcome is to be measured and how much is expected.Clear as to time frameHow long before measuring accomplishment.Challenging yet attainableLow goals do not motivate

16、.High goals motivate if they can be achieved.Written downFocuses, defines, and makes goals visible.Communicated to all necessary organizational membersPuts everybody “on the same page.Exhibit 84Characteristics of Well-Designed Goalsp210212.1 Types of GoalsOrganizations have many types of goalsFinanc

17、ial goalsStrategic goals; (2) Stated goals Real goals222.1 Types of GoalsFinancial goalsStrategic goals; Financial Goals 財(cái)務(wù)目的- 絕對(duì)數(shù)值A(chǔ)re related to the expected internal financial performance of the organization.Ex: McDonalds financial goal of 3-5% average annual sales and revenue growthStrategic Goal

18、s 戰(zhàn)略目的- 相對(duì)數(shù)值A(chǔ)re related to the performance of the firm relative to factors in its external environment (e.g., competitors).Ex: Match or beat the performance of the competitive rivals23Types of GoalsStated Goals versus Real GoalsStated Goals陳說目的: Official statements of what an organization says-and w

19、hat it wants its various stakeholders to believe-its goals are.Ex. Universities are places of high educationReal Goals實(shí)踐目的: Goals that an organization actually pursues, as defined by the actions of its membersEx. The Universities are research institutions, business companies 24D: Plans are Documents

20、 that outline how goals are going to be met. Including resources allocation, schedules, and other necessary actions to accomplish the goals. p2072.2 Types of Plans25Exhibit 81Four Types of Plans2.2 Types of Plansp207263. Setting Goals and Developing Plans制定目的與方案27Writing objectives model 制定目的的模型Infi

21、nitive 不定式Action verb 動(dòng)詞Singular, specific， and measurable result to be achieved 單一、詳細(xì)、可丈量、可獲得的target date 目的日期Example from Coca-Cola:1To 2increase sales to (3)50% of carbonated soft drinks in the U.S. (4)by 2020(1) To (2) produce (3) 10 movies (4) by 211728制定目的的模型中文助動(dòng)詞 +【我們】要時(shí)間 +在*期間內(nèi)動(dòng)詞 +*行動(dòng)可丈量可實(shí)現(xiàn)單

22、一詳細(xì)的 +實(shí)現(xiàn)*目的我們要在2020年前確保公司銷售收入年增長率超越10%。293.1 Approaches to Setting Goals 傳統(tǒng)的制定目的方法3.1.2 Traditional Goal SettingBroad goals are set at the top of the organization.Goals are then broken into sub-goals for each organizational level.Assumes that top management knows best because they can see the “big p

23、icture.Goals are intended to direct, guide, and constrain from above.由上至下、總目的分解、上層把握全局、目的是上對(duì)下的指點(diǎn)限制30Establishing Goals (contd) Maintaining the Hierarchy of Goals維護(hù)目的的等級(jí)MeansEnds Chain手段-目的鏈The integrated network of goals that results from establishing a clearly-defined hierarchy of organizational go

24、als.Achievement of lower-level goals is the means by which to reach higher-level goals (ends).313.1 Approaches to Setting GoalsAmbiguous goals lead to miss interpretations and wrong direction模糊的目的會(huì)導(dǎo)致偏向Goals lose clarity and focus as lower-level managers attempt to interpret and define the goals for

25、their areas of responsibility.32Exhibit 82The Downside of Traditional Goal Settingp209333.1.1 Steps in Goal SettingReview the organizations mission statement.Do goals reflect the mission?Evaluate available resources.Are resources sufficient to accomplish the mission?Determine goals individually or w

26、ith others.Are goals specific, measurable, and timely?Write down the goals and communicate them to all who need to know.Is everybody on the same page?Review results and whether goals are being met.What changes are needed in mission, resources, or goals?3.1 Approaches to Setting Goals 制定目的的方法34制定目的的方

27、法圖示35Establishing Goals (contd)3.1.3 Management By Objectives (MBO) 目的管理Specific performance goals are jointly determined by employees and managers.Progress toward accomplishing goals is periodically reviewed.Rewards are allocated on the basis of progress towards the goals.4 Key elements of MBO:Goal

28、 specificity, participative decision making, an explicit performance/evaluation period, feedback36Exhibit 83 Steps in a Typical MBO ProgramThe organizations overall objectives and strategies are formulated.Major objectives are allocated among divisional and departmental units.Unit managers collabora

29、tively set specific objectives for their units with their managers.Specific objectives are collaboratively set with all department members.Action plans, defining how objectives are to be achieved, are specified and agreed upon by managers and employees.The action plans are implemented.Progress towar

30、d objectives is periodically reviewed, and feedback is provided.Successful achievement of objectives is reinforced by performance-based rewards.p21037Does MBO Work?Yes!Increase employee performance and organizational productivity.Reasons for MBO SuccessTop management commitment and involvement. Effe

31、ctive way of motivating employeesPotential Problems with MBO ProgramsNot as effective in dynamic environments that require constant resetting of goals.Overemphasis on individual accomplishment may create problems with teamwork.Allowing the MBO program to become an annual paperwork shuffle.383.2 Deve

32、loping PlansThree Contingency Factors in Planning 方案任務(wù)的權(quán)變要素 1(1) Managers level in the organizationStrategic plans at higher levelsOperational plans at lower levels39Exhibit 85Planning in the Hierarchy of Organizations403.2 Developing PlansContingency Factors in Planning 方案任務(wù)的權(quán)變要素 2(2) Degree of env

33、ironmental uncertaintyStable environment: specific plansDynamic environment: specific but flexible plansEx: continental airlines , on time service plans (destination not a flight plan)413.2 Developing PlansContingency Factors in Planning 方案任務(wù)的權(quán)變要素 3(3) Time-Length of future commitmentsCommitment Con

34、cept 承諾概念: plans should extend far enough to meet those commitments made when the plans were developed.Planning for too long or too short period is inefficient and ineffective. 423.3 Approaches to Planning(1) The traditional approach to planningEstablishing a formal planning departmentA group of pla

35、nning specialists who help managers write organizational plans.Advantages Thorough, systematic, coordinated, Disadvantagesfocus on developing “the plan433.3 Approaches to Planning(2) The involved approach of planningInvolving organizational members in the processPlans are developed by members of org

36、anizational units at various levels and then coordinated with other units across the organization.Plans are more than written things on papers, they can be used in directing and coordinating workExample: Dell, work team set their own plans, and “recovery plans443.4 PrioritiesDefined as a ranking of

37、goals, objectives, or activities in order of importance, priorities play a special role in planning方案中的優(yōu)先排序45(1) The A-B-C priority systemA: “Must doobjectives critical to successful performance.B: “Should do-objective necessary for improved performance.C: “Nice do- Objective desirable for improved

38、performance, but not critical to survival or improved performance46(2) The 80/20 principle (Pareto帕累托The 80/20 principle asserts that a minority of causes, inputs, or effort usually leads to a majority of the results, outputs, or rewards少數(shù)的要素投入或者努力可以帶來多數(shù)的結(jié)果產(chǎn)出和報(bào)酬Example: Top 20% of the customers at a

39、 typical commercial bank generate up to six times as much revenue as they cost, while the bottom 20% cost three to four times more than they make for the company.Practice: Managers can leverage their time by focusing on the few people, problems, or opportunities with the greatest impact4748目的管理循環(huán)49C

40、ontents4.1 Techniques for Assessing the Environment4.2 Techniques for Allocating Resources4.3 Contemporary Planning Techniques 4. Planning Tools and Techniques504.1 Techniques for Assessing the EnvironmentEnvironment scanningForecastingBenchmarking 514.1.1 Environmental Scanning Environmental Scanni

41、ng 環(huán)境掃描D The screening of large amounts of information to anticipate and interpret change in the environment.524.1.1 Environmental Scanning Competitor Intelligence 競爭對(duì)手調(diào)查 The process of gathering information about competitors who they are; what they are doing; How will what theyre doing affect us?Is

42、 not spying but rather careful attention to readily accessible information from employees, customers, suppliers, the Internet, and competitors themselves.May involve reverse engineering of competing products to discover technical innovations.53 Global ScanningGlobal Scanning 全球掃描Screening a broad sc

43、ope of information on global forces that might affect the organization.Has value to firms with significant global interests.Draws information from sources that provide global perspectives on world-wide issues and opportunities.54World BankIMFOECDCIA factbook554.1.2 Forecasting D-Forecasting 預(yù)測The pa

44、rt of organizational planning that involves creating predictions of outcomes based on information gathered by environmental scanning.Facilitates managerial decision making.Is most accurate in stable environments.56Assessing the Environment (contd) Forecasting TechniquesQuantitative forecasting 定量預(yù)測Q

45、ualitative forecasting 定性預(yù)測57Assessing the Environment (contd) Forecasting TechniquesQuantitative forecasting 定量預(yù)測Applying a set of mathematical rules to a series of hard data to predict outcomes (e.g., units to be produced).QuantitativeTime series analysisRegression modelsEconometric modelsEconomic

46、 indicatorsSubstitution effect58Exhibit B1Forecasting TechniquesQualitative forecasting 定性預(yù)測Using expert judgments and opinions to predict less than precise outcomes (e.g., direction of the economy).QualitativeJury of opinion 評(píng)審小組意見Salesforce composition 銷售構(gòu)成Customer evaluation 顧客評(píng)價(jià)P25059 Making For

47、ecasting More EffectiveUse forecasting techniques in stable environmentsUse simple forecasting methods.Compare each forecast with its corresponding “no change forecast.Dont rely on a single forecasting method.Dont assume that the turning points in a trend can be accurately identified.Shorten the tim

48、e period covered by a forecast.Remember that forecasting is a developed managerial skill that supports decision making.p251604.1.3 BenchmarkingThe search for the best practices among competitors and noncompetitors that lead to their superior performance.By analyzing and copying these practices, firm

49、s can improve their performance.Sales-69% upProductivity 45% up61Exhibit B2Steps in Benchmarking 標(biāo)桿比較的步驟Source: Based on Y.K. Shetty, “Aiming High: Competitive Benchmarking for Superior Performance, Long Range Planning. February 1993, p. 42.P252624.2. Techniques for Allocating ResourcesBudgetingSche

50、dulingBreakeven AnalysisLinear Programming63ResourcesD The assets of the organization including financial, physical, human, and intangibleTypes of ResourcesThe assets of the organizationFinancial: debt, equity, and retained earningsPhysical: buildings, equipment, and raw materialsHuman: experiences,

51、 skills, knowledge, and competenciesIntangible: brand names, patents, reputation, trademarks, copyrights, and databases64Allocating Resources: 4.2.1 BudgetingD BudgetA plan for allocating resources (e.g., revenues, expenses, and capital expenditures) to specific activities.Is used to improve time, s

52、pace, and use of material resources.Is the most commonly used and most widely applicable planning technique for organizations.p25265Exhibit B3Types of BudgetsSource: Based on R.S. Russell and B.W. Taylor III. Production and Operations Management (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1995), p. 287.

53、 P25266Exhibit B4Suggestions for Improving BudgetingCollaborate and communicate.Be flexible.Goals should drive budgetsbudgets should not determine goals.Coordinate budgeting throughout the organization.Use budgeting/planning software when appropriate.Remember that budgets are tools.Remember that pro

54、fits result from smart management, not because you budgeted for them.P25367Allocating Resources: 4.2.2 SchedulingD Schedules 排程Plans that allocate resources by detailing what activities have to be done, the order in which they are to be completed, who is to do each, and when they are to be completed

55、.Represent the coordination of various activities.68Allocating Resources:ChartingGantt Chart 甘特圖A graphical scheduling technique developed by Henry. L. Gantt in the 1880s-90s for production operationA bar graph with time on the horizontal axis and activities to be accomplished on the vertical axis.S

56、hows the expected and actual progress of various tasks.69Exhibit B5A Gantt Chart 甘特圖P25370Allocating Resources: Load Chart 負(fù)荷圖A modified Gantt chart that lists entire departments or specific resources on the vertical axis.Allows managers to plan and control capacity utilization.Charting71Exhibit B6A

57、 Load Chart 負(fù)荷圖P25472Allocating Resources: Analysis Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) or PERT network analysis PERT網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析A flow chart diagram that depicts the sequence of activities needed to complete a project and the time or costs associated with each activity.PERT是一種流程圖型，表述了工程活動(dòng) 的順序和時(shí)間

58、，有時(shí)參與了相應(yīng)的本錢數(shù)據(jù)。73Exhibit B9A Visual PERT Network for Constructing an Office BuildingP25674Allocating Resources: Analysis Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) PERT網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析4概念Events 事件: end points for completion of major activities in a PERT network.Activities 活動(dòng): time/resources required to progr

59、ess from one event to another in a PERT network.Critical path 關(guān)鍵途徑: the most time-consuming chain of activities and events in a PERT network.(a path of activities that allows all tasks to be completed with the least slack time.)Slack time 松弛時(shí)間: the amount of time an individual activity can be delaye

60、d without delaying the whole project. 75Exhibit B7Steps in Developing a PERT NetworkIdentify every significant activity that must be achieved for a project to be completed.Determine the order in which these events must be completed.Diagram the flow of activities from start to finish, identifying eac