國際期貨市場運作第3組

1、Aluminum Market AnalysisGroup 3 魏會地, 李春暉, 鄧麗嬌, 彭湃, 李艷超, 高謇, 戴亞, 王喜越商務(wù)英語061班11.Foundamental analysis1.1Quotation1.2 Supply and demand1.3 Related foreign futures contract -Aluminum in LME 1.4 Related economic index1.5 Effects of related commodities1.6 Related events1.7 Conclusions about the economic s

2、ituation 21.1Quotation SH aluminum 1001 is quoted as 13490 Yuan per ton in 2009,6,831.2 Supply and demandThe supply is in excess of the demand. There are many aluminum left unused in the home market. Moreover, a great deal of aluminum are imported. However, the current aluminum prices temporarily de

3、viate from the relationship between supply and demand and there is a bullish trend in the market. The present situation is in favor of going long.41.3 Aluminum in LMEName LME Al 03 highest：1655.0 Lowest：1595.0 Newest：1638.5Purchasing price：1637.0 Selling price：1640.0 Position：825480 ton Inventory: 4

4、,274,550 ton51.4 Related economic index- Dow Jones Industrial Average 品種名稱 開盤 最高 最低 最新 漲幅% 成交量 持倉量 日增倉 昨收道瓊工業(yè) 8764.83 8802.28 8725.27 8735.47 -0.33% 63738292 - 0 8764.49 6NASDAQ 品種名稱 開盤 最高 最低 最新 漲幅% 成交量 持倉量 日增倉 昨收納斯達(dá)克 1850.48 1859.22 1846.34 1850.70 0.45% 576925696 - 0 1842.40 7Top Countries in GDP,

5、2008(billion dollars) countryGDP increasing rate - EU 18930 1.5% 1USA 14330 1.4% 2Japan4844 0.7% 3China4222 9.0% 809 GDPThe first season of 2009, GDP of the USA is $3518.875 billion, decreasing by 2.6% .The first season of 2009, GDP of 16 European countries is 239.1297, decreasing by 2.5%; while tha

6、t of 27countries is 2929.9779 billion, decreasing by 2.4%. In china, GDP is ￥6574.5billion, increasing 6.1%.9CPI&PPIIn May 2009, Chinas CPI decreased by 1.4% and PPI decreased by 7.2% compared with last May.In the USA, CPI in April was close to last month, but decreased 0.7% compared with last year.

7、 PPI in April increased 0.3% and decreased 1.2% in March.CPI in Europe increase 0.6%, but remained the same in May. And PPI kept decreasing by 4.6%, made it the greatest drop in annual rate. 10Conclusion The USA and Europe are experiencing economic depreciation, the increasing rate is slowing down,

8、and wont recover soon.China experienced less recession, and will keep increasing.111.5 Effects of related commodities The futures prices of Copper, zinc, and aluminum are closely related and share correspondent tendency.Because the prices of copper and zinc tend to increase as shown below, the price

9、 of aluminum may also increase in the future. 12The price of SH futures copper 1001 from 13th ,May to 10th ,June saw an increase.13The price of SH futures zinc 1001 from 13th ,May to 10th ,June also saw an increase.141.6 Related eventsThe dollar has weakened in international currency trading.Russia

10、stopped supplying aluminum to Asia.The policy of supporting automobile industry in china increases the sales of cars and demand of aluminum.15Funds take part in the aluminum futures exchange. American automobile industry, represented by GM, is seriously weakened during the economic recession. Non-Fe

11、rrous Metal Industry Promotion Planning was passed on 2，25 of 2009有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整和振興規(guī)劃The holding of Large reserves.161.7Conclusion On the whole , the advantages outweigh the disadvantages in terms of economic situation. So, it is advisable to go long.172 Technical analyses 2.1價格分析-日K線（1）18價格分析-日K線（2）19價格分

12、析-周K線（1）20價格分析-周K線（2）21價格分析-月K線（1）22價格分析-月K線（2）232.2滬鋁1001日K線圖09/5/13-09/06/1024滬鋁1001周K線圖08/08/29-09/06/1025滬鋁1001月K線圖05/04/28-09/06/10262.3 The analysis of the price of the aluminum: At present, the price line of the aluminum is upward. We can analysis it withthe following candlestick charts. 27Re

13、sistance line Support line With the help of the daily candlestick chart, we draw the support line and the resistance line. The two lines form the upward parallelogram (平行四邊形)。28With the help of the weekly candlestick chart, we draw the support line and the resistance line. The two lines are upward t

14、ogether, so they form the wedge（楔形）Resistance line 29Resistance line Support line With the help of the monthly candlestick chart, we draw the resistance line and the support line. The resistance line is upward, while the support line is horizontal.30The short-term price trend of the aluminum is upward, the medium-term price trend and the long-term price trend of the aluminum are als