匯率制度-Chapter5International

1、Chapter 4 International Exchange System第五章 國際匯率制度第一節(jié) 固定匯率制Fixed Rate SystemThe world economy operated under a system of fixed dollar exchange rates between the end of World War II and 1973, with central banks routinely trading foreign exchange to hold their exchange rates at internationally agreed l

2、evels.1Two kinds of the fixed exchange rates金本位制度下的固定匯率制紙幣流通制度下的固定匯率制Gold Standard:規(guī)定貨幣單位的含金量。含金量的的對比決定匯率。金幣可以自由鑄造；自由兌換；自由輸出入。2The Gold StandardAn international gold standard avoids the asymmetry inherent in a reserve currency standard by avoiding the “Nth currency” problem. Under a gold standard, e

3、ach country fixes the price of its currency in terms of gold by standing ready to trade domestic currency for gold whenever necessary to defend the official price.3Advantage of the Gold StandardBecause there are N currency and N prices of gold in terms of those currencies, no single country occupies

4、 a privileged position within the system: each is responsible for pegging its currencys price in terms of the official international reserve asset, gold. Gold standard rules also require each country to allow unhindered imports and exports of gold across its borders.4Benefits and drawbacks of the Go

5、ld StandardBenefits:SymmetryPrice level and value of national money are more stable and predictableEnhance international transactions5Drawbacks:Constraints on the use of monetary policy to fight unemployment.Tying currency values to gold ensures a stable overall price level only if the relative pric

6、e of gold is stable.gold discovery in South AmericaAn international payments system based on gold is problematic because central banks cannot increase their holdings of international reserves as their economies grow unless there are continual new gold discoveries.The gold standard gives gold-produci

7、ng countries power to influence the world economy6The Gold Exchange StandardHalfway between the gold standard and a pure reserve currency standard is the gold exchange standard. Central banks reserves consist of gold and currencies whose prices in terms of gold are fixed, and each central bank fixes

8、 its exchange rate to a currency with a fixed gold price. More flexibility in the growth of international reserves.7Fixed Exchange Rates under currency-circulation system紙幣流通下的布雷頓森林體系。1944Bretton Woods agreement英國向美國妥協(xié)的結(jié)果“雙掛鉤”體系。金塊美元dollar各國貨幣日元里拉1盎司=35美元1%幅度波動8How to sustain the Fixed Rate維持固定匯率制的手

9、段：動用黃金儲備（儲備項目）利用貼現(xiàn)政策（資本項目）施行外匯管制（或簽訂互換貨幣協(xié)定）實行法定貶值（last resort）9Dilemma of US dollar美國逆差收支平衡向他國提供美元保持對美元信心10Process of dollar devaluation美元貶值1944 1971 1973 1盎司值美元353842.22脫鉤浮動11Abandoned Gold Exchange StandardThe post-World War II reserve currency system centered on the dollar was, in fact, originall

10、y set up as a gold exchange standard. While foreign central banks did the job of pegging exchange rates, the U.S. Federal Reserve was responsible for holding the dollar price of gold at $35 an ounce. By the mid-1960s, the system operated in practice more like a pure reserve currency system than a go

11、ld standard. President Nixon unilaterally severed the dollars link to gold in August 1971, shortly before the system of fixed dollar exchange rates was abandoned.12Floating Exchange Rate System第二節(jié) 浮動匯率制度特征：不規(guī)定本國貨幣與外幣黃金平價不規(guī)定匯率波動的上下限中央銀行無義務維持匯率波動界限義務外匯市場供求決定匯率國際收支變化是影響匯率的主要因素13Types of floating exchan

12、ge rates政府有否干預(dirty hand)自由浮動Free Float/Clean Float管理浮動Managed Float/Dirty Float是否與其他貨幣發(fā)生聯(lián)系(Connection)單獨浮動Single Float 英鎊，美元，日元等27個國家。釘住浮動Pegged Float(1)釘住某一種貨幣：過去的殖民地與宗主國之間關系(2)釘住一攬子貨幣：SDR; ECU;取決于主要貿(mào)易伙伴國。聯(lián)合浮動Joint Float歐共體。14Advantage and drawback of floating rate浮動匯率制度的有利因素：可以防止大量游資對硬貨幣的沖擊?？梢苑乐?/p>

13、外匯和黃金儲備的流失。各國有較大的自由來推行本國政策。總而言之，沒有義務來維護固定匯率。15Drawbacks of floating exchange rate浮動匯率的三方面弊端：增加進出口貿(mào)易結(jié)算成本和風險，不利于國際貿(mào)易的發(fā)展。助長國際金融市場上的投機活動。各國采取以鄰為壑政策，競爭性貨幣貶值。Beggar-thy-neighbor policy.16Krugman & Obstfeld (1)Discipline. Central banks freed from the obligation to fix their exchange rates might embark on i

14、nflationary policies.Destabilizing speculation and money market disturbances. Speculation on changes in exchange rates could lead to instability in foreign exchange markets.Injury to international trade and investment. Floating rates would make relative international prices more unpredictable.17Krug

15、man & Obstfeld (2)4. Uncoordinated economic policies. The door would be opened to competitive currency practices harmful to the would economy.5. The illusion of greater autonomy. Floating exchange rates would not really give countries more policy autonomy. Changes in exchange rates would have such p

16、ervasive macroeconomic effects that central banks would feel compelled to intervene heavily in foreign exchange markets even without a formal commitment to peg.18Selection of Fixed & Floating Exchange Rates固定匯率制和浮動匯率制的選擇取決于一國的國情：大國還是小國；發(fā)展中國家還是發(fā)達國家；此事古難全19Exchange Rate System in Hong Kong第三節(jié) 聯(lián)系匯率制度（演

17、變史）1935美元英鎊區(qū)成員，港幣與英鎊之間是固定匯率1英鎊=16港元1972英鎊自由浮動，港幣與美元建立固定聯(lián)系1美元=5.65港元1973美元自由浮動，港幣也自由浮動不斷貶值過程1983.10港幣直接與美元掛鉤，聯(lián)系匯率制度開始1美元=7.8港元20Stabilization Policies香港聯(lián)系匯率制度的主要內(nèi)容:從1983年10月17日起，發(fā)鈔銀行增發(fā)的港元現(xiàn)鈔，一律以1美元=7.8港元的比價，事先向外匯基金交納美元。保證了港幣的發(fā)行有美元的準備。1994年進一步規(guī)定上述固定匯率只使用于發(fā)鈔銀行與外匯基金之間。其他交易則全部按照市場匯率來進行。21Adaptability and

18、Vitality Hong Kong: small open economy資源貧乏，生產(chǎn)資料和生活必需品依賴進口。香港對外貿(mào)易是本地GDP 的2.5倍。外資在香港經(jīng)濟中占絕對比重。外資占股票市場交易額的三分之一。Weathering the Storms1987年全球股災；1990年海灣戰(zhàn)爭；1991年歐洲匯率機制解體；1997-1998年亞洲金融危機。22Evolution of Exchange System of RMB in China232425261990$1= 4.78 (5.83)人民幣貶值9.57%1991$1= 5.32 (6.78)允許個人外匯存取買賣1992$1= 5.51 (8.62)全國外匯調(diào)劑中心成立連網(wǎng)42個地方外匯調(diào)劑市場1993$1= 5.76 (9.65)外匯穩(wěn)定基金建立第六時期： 人