第七講項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理ppt課件

1、Project Risk ManagementArt Or Science?.學(xué)習(xí)提示學(xué)習(xí)內(nèi)容風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的含義工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方案風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別定性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析定量的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)反響方案風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的監(jiān)視與控制軟件的運(yùn)用學(xué)習(xí)重點(diǎn)工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過(guò)程學(xué)習(xí)難點(diǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方案風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)What risk is A basic dictionary definition says that risk is “the possibility of loss or injuryRisk is uncertainty that have a Negative Or positive effect on meeting

2、project objectivesNegativeRisk(1960S-1970S)A general definition(1980S-1990S)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的屬性f (probability, impact)f (threat insurance chance)certainRiskUncertain.Project risk managementProject risk management is the art and science of identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk throughout the life of a pro

3、ject and in the best interest of meeting the project objectives風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是對(duì)工程管理過(guò)程中如何處置風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的決策和控制過(guò)程工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是在工程生命期內(nèi)，為了最大限制地滿足工程目的，識(shí)別、分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并做出相應(yīng)反響的藝術(shù)和科學(xué).Risk preferenceUtilityPotential payoffRisk neutralRisk-averseRisk seekingthe amount of satisfaction or pleasure received from a potential payoff.決策過(guò)程的三種規(guī)范確定形狀

4、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不確定性Whats the difference between the crisis management and the risk management.Project management maturity by industry group and knowledge areaKEY : 1= Lowest Maturity rating 5=Highest Maturity RatingEngineering/constructiontelecommunicationsInformation systemsHi-TechmanufacturingScope3.523.453.25

5、3.37Time3.553.143.033.50Cost3.77Quality2.913.222.883.26Human resources33.18communication3.533.533.213.48risk2.932.872.752.76procurement3.333.012.913.33.It is important to note that: Risk management is an investment-there are cost associated with It. nature of the project,The e

6、xperience of the project team, constrains imposed on both Cost exceed potential benefitMinimizing potential negative riskWhile maximizing potential positive riskdependsgoalsprinciple.The major process involved in risk managementRisk management planningRisk identificationQualitative risk analysisQuan

7、titative risk analysisRisk response planningRisk monitoring and control編制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方案識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性和定量分析編制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)方案風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)視與管理.謝 謝！.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理流程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)反響風(fēng)險(xiǎn)文件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析反響線中：虛線表示存在反響實(shí)線表示能夠存在反響.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)方案/預(yù)備過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別最高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的清單制定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)手段的選擇和分析最正確選擇風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)工具最正確實(shí)施方法論證后的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)方案修訂最高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的報(bào)告形狀報(bào)告其他步驟的反響風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)優(yōu)先級(jí)和整合實(shí)施風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)方案能夠性與影響風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

8、監(jiān)控和報(bào)告風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件清單風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方案過(guò)程方案和控制組織和培訓(xùn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)劃.Risk management planningRisk management planning is the process of deciding how to approach and plan for risk management activities for a project。A risk management plan documents the procedures for managing risk throughout the project風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方案編制就是決議采用何種方法進(jìn)展風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理活動(dòng)并制

9、定相應(yīng)方案管理過(guò)程。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方案是管理整個(gè)工程生命期中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程序性文件.Topic addressed in a risk management planMethodology: how will risk management be performed on this project? What tools and data resources are available and applicable？Roles and responsibilities: who are the individuals responsible for implementing specific tasks

10、and providing deliverables related to risk management？Budget and schedule: what are the estimated cost and schedules for performing risk related activities？方法論：工程中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理怎樣被執(zhí)行？可以得到的并真實(shí)可行的工具和數(shù)據(jù)資源是什么?角色和責(zé)任：誰(shuí)是執(zhí)行特定義務(wù)并對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提供可交付性成果的個(gè)人或群體？預(yù)算和進(jìn)度：執(zhí)行與與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相關(guān)的進(jìn)度和估計(jì)的本錢(qián)是多少？.Topic addressed in a risk management plan

11、Risk categories: what are the main categories of risks that should be addressed on this project? Is there a risk breakdown structure for the project?Risk probability and impact: how will the probabilities and impacts of risk items be assessed? What scoring and interpretation methods will be used for

12、 the qualitative and quantitative analysis of risksRisk documenting: what reporting formats and process will be used for risk management activities.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的種類：工程中涉及的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的種類有哪些？能否編制出與WBS和OBS相應(yīng)工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)構(gòu)造分解圖？風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率和影響：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)工程發(fā)生的概率和對(duì)工程目的產(chǎn)生的影響如何評(píng)價(jià)？什么樣的打分和解釋的方法可用來(lái)定性和定量地分析工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)？風(fēng)險(xiǎn)登記：采用怎樣的報(bào)告方式和流程用來(lái)登記風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理活動(dòng)。.Project docum

13、entsCorporate risk management policiesRisk categoriesLessons-learned reports from past projectTemplates for creating a risk management planThe risk tolerances of various stakeholders A risk management plan: summarizes how risk management will be performed on a particular project.完善的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方案要挾與災(zāi)禍應(yīng)急方案與緩和方

14、案損失和破壞.不完善的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方案要挾與災(zāi)禍應(yīng)急方案與緩和方案損失和破壞.Risk IdentificationIdentifying risk is the process of understanding what potential events might hurt or enhance a particular project。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別是了解能夠損害和加強(qiáng)特定工程效益的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的過(guò)程。Tools and techniquesThe risk register工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方案工程方案信息：任務(wù)分解構(gòu)造：工程的產(chǎn)品描畫(huà)、工程的工期和本錢(qián)估計(jì)、資源規(guī)劃、采購(gòu)方案、假設(shè)前提和限制條件；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類

15、別歷史資料：工程文檔、公開(kāi)發(fā)表的資料、工程團(tuán)隊(duì)成員的知識(shí)和閱歷訪談法SWOT檢查表法假設(shè)前提分析圖示技術(shù)文件審核頭腦風(fēng)暴德?tīng)柗品↖dentified riskstriggers.Suggestions for identifying risksBrainstorming: is a techniques for by which a group attempts to generate ideas or find a solution for a specific problem by amassing ideas spontaneously and without judgmentDelph

16、i technique is to derive a consensus among a panel of experts who make predictions about future developmentsInterviewing: is a fact-finding technique for collecting information in face-to-face, phone, , or instant-messaging discussions.The Risk RegisterA risk register is a document that contains res

17、ults of various risk management process, often displayed in a table or spreadsheet format. It is a tool for documenting potential risk events and related information。Risk events refer to specific, uncertain events that may occur to the detriment or enhancement of the project風(fēng)險(xiǎn)登記表是一種記錄各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過(guò)程結(jié)果的文件，通

18、常以表格的方式給出，是用來(lái)描畫(huà)潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件和相關(guān)信息的文件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件是指那些特定的能夠?qū)こ坍a(chǎn)生有利或不利影響的不確定事件.Sample Risk RegisterNORANKRISKDESCRIPTIONCATEGORYROOT CAUSETRIGGERSPOTENTIAL RESPONSESRISK OWERPROBABILITYIMPACTSTATUSR441R212.Qualitative Risk AnalysisProbability/impactMatrix or chartTop ten item trackingExpert judgment.Sample probabilit

19、y/impact Matrixrisk6risk9Risk1risk4Risk3risk7Risk2Risk5risk11Risk8risk10risk12highmediumlowhighmediumlowimpactprobability.LowriskMediumriskHighrisk.Top ten risk item tracking: it maintains an awareness of risks through out of the life of a project. MONTHLY RANKINGRISK EVENRANK THIS MONTHRANK LAST MO

20、NTHNUMBER OF MONTH IN TOP TENRISK RESOLUTION PROGRESSInadequate planning124Working on revising the entire project management planPoor definition233Holding meetings with project customer and sponsor or to clarify scopeAbsence of leadership312After previous project manager quiet, assigned a new one to

21、 lead a project.Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Exampledecision probability0.10.7$300,000-$40,000-$50,000-$20,000$60,000=+$60,000-$32,000-$10,000-$2,000$42,000Project 1Project 2outcome=EMVPROJECT1S EMV=$60,00-$32,000=$28,000Project 2,s EMA=-$10,000-$2,000+$42,000=$30,000.SIMULATIONA more soph

22、isticated quantitative risk analysis technique is simulation, simulation uses a representation or model of a system to analyze the expected behavior or performance of the system.Most simulations are based on some form of Monte Carlo analysis.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量分析定義定性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析是評(píng)估已識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響和可能性的過(guò)程。這一過(guò)程按風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)可能的影響

23、對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行排序。定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析過(guò)程的目標(biāo)是量化分析每一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率及其對(duì)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)造成的后果，也分析項(xiàng)目總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的程度作用與目的識(shí)別具體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和指導(dǎo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)；根據(jù)各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)于項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的潛在影響對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行排序通過(guò)比較風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)總體級(jí)別。測(cè)定某一特定項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的概率；量化項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響，決定項(xiàng)目可能需要的成本和時(shí)間的應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備；通過(guò)量化各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的影響程度，贈(zèng)別出最需要關(guān)注的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相互聯(lián)系風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量分析一般在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性分析之后進(jìn)行。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性分析與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量分析可以分別單獨(dú)使用，也可以一起使用，這決定于項(xiàng)目的時(shí)間、預(yù)算的要求和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及影響對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性定量說(shuō)明的需要。.需要提供的信息和依據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃已識(shí)別的

24、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目狀態(tài)項(xiàng)目類型數(shù)據(jù)精確性概率范圍及后果假設(shè)前提風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)優(yōu)先次序清單歷史信息專家判斷其他計(jì)劃編制的輸出運(yùn)用的方法與工具訪談概率/影響風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)評(píng)分矩陣專家判斷法十大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目跟蹤風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率和影響敏感性分析決策樹(shù)分析模擬（蒙特卡羅分析）分析的結(jié)果項(xiàng)目總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)項(xiàng)目?jī)?yōu)先次序清單需進(jìn)一步分析和管理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)清單風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定性分析結(jié)果中反映的趨勢(shì)。經(jīng)量化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)優(yōu)先次序清單項(xiàng)目概率分析完成成本和時(shí)間目標(biāo)的概率定量分析結(jié)果中反映的趨勢(shì).風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)方案的編制概念：針對(duì)已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)制定行動(dòng)方案和確定行動(dòng)措施的過(guò)程，其目的在于添加實(shí)現(xiàn)工程目的的時(shí)機(jī)，減少對(duì)工程的要挾。這一過(guò)程包括確定和分派相應(yīng)的人員和單

25、位擔(dān)任每項(xiàng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施，保證已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以得到適宜的處置。.工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)方案risk register)序號(hào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響應(yīng)對(duì)策略具體應(yīng)對(duì)措施負(fù)責(zé)人.Risk Response Planning The basic response strategies for negative risk:Risk avoidanceRisk acceptanceRisk transferenceRisk mitigationThe basic response strategies for positive risks:Risk exploitationRisk sharingRisk enhance

26、mentRisk acceptance.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)戰(zhàn)略躲避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：經(jīng)過(guò)變卦工程方案，從而消除風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和產(chǎn)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的條件，或者維護(hù)工程的目的免受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響。如減少工程范圍、延伸工期、采用成熟的技術(shù)、防止運(yùn)用缺乏閱歷的承包商。轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：設(shè)法將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的結(jié)果連同對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)的權(quán)益轉(zhuǎn)讓給第三方。轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)需求付出相應(yīng)的本錢(qián)包括：保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)、履約保證金、擔(dān)保費(fèi)用等。緩解風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：采取一定措施將某一負(fù)面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響事件的概率和其后果將地道到一種可以接受的限制。緩解風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)留意本錢(qián)收益的比較，保證風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理投資的合理性。接受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：當(dāng)某一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響在可接受的范圍之內(nèi)，或者工程團(tuán)隊(duì)沒(méi)能找到其他適宜的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)戰(zhàn)略時(shí)，不改動(dòng)原有方案去應(yīng)對(duì)某一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

27、采用接受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的戰(zhàn)略需求制定：應(yīng)急方案contingency plan), 退卻方案fallback plan)、應(yīng)急補(bǔ)助和貯藏contingency allowance。 .Risk Monitoring And ControlRisk monitoring and control involves executing the risk management processes to respond to risk evens.Executing the risk management process means ensuring that risk awareness is an ongoi

28、ng activity performed by the entire project team throughout the entire project.Reassessment, risk audits, varianceAnd trend analysis, technical performance measurements, reserve analysis,And status meetings or periodic risk reviews such as The top ten risk item tracking method Tools and technicalReq

29、uested changes, Recommended corrective and preventive actions, And updates to the risk register, project management plan, Organizational process assets, such as lessons-learned information that might help future projectoutput.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的監(jiān)控就是對(duì)工程的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)展監(jiān)視和控制，包括：跟蹤已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、監(jiān)視剩余風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和識(shí)別新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；保證風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方案和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)方案的執(zhí)行和實(shí)施；評(píng)

30、價(jià)這些方案對(duì)于遞減風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的有效性工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)視和控制包括在整個(gè)工程過(guò)程中.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控的目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)方案能否有效實(shí)施？風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施能否有效？工程假設(shè)前提能否依然成立；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露程度與以前的情況相比能否發(fā)生變化，如發(fā)生，做出趨勢(shì)分析；某一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)觸發(fā)器/征兆能否曾經(jīng)發(fā)生；適當(dāng)?shù)慕M織政策和管理程序能否得到服從；能否有新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn).風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控的方法與措施建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)；定期對(duì)工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)展審核；完善風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理責(zé)任制度。.Broad categories of risks might include:MarketriskFinancialriskTechnology riskPeople riskStructure/proc

31、essrisk.Sample risk breakdown structureIT ProjectCompetitionsuppliersCash flowHardwaresoftwarenetworkExecutive supportuser supportteam supportestimatecommunicationresourceProject managementTechnicalBusinessOrganizational.每一階段的典型風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件全生命期四個(gè)階段工程同意工程初始方案和詳細(xì)方案執(zhí)行終了缺乏主要專家問(wèn)題定義不明確無(wú)可行性研討目的不明確購(gòu)買(mǎi)經(jīng)過(guò)競(jìng)標(biāo)無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方案方案草率缺乏準(zhǔn)確參數(shù)傳播不準(zhǔn)確角色定義不明確團(tuán)隊(duì)缺乏閱歷員工缺乏技藝資料可獲得性罷工天氣范圍變卦進(jìn)度變卦管理制度要求無(wú)順應(yīng)的控制系統(tǒng)質(zhì)量差客戶不接受基建規(guī)模更改現(xiàn)金流動(dòng)問(wèn)題總體工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資總額.Potential negative risk conditions associated with ea