零售：在兩極分化的世界中取勝

1、Table of contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Executive Summary 1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Retail 2020: Winning in a polarized world 1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Drivers of change: A floor plan for the world without walls 1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Driver manifestation: Where and how retailers will sell and oper

2、ate 2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Strategic implications: The paradoxical choices 3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Overview 6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Retail industry overview 6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Consumer behavior overview 9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Key change drivers 13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Speed of technolo

3、gical changes 13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Shifts in US demographics and shopper behavior 16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Ripple effects of the changing global shopper 19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Global economics of procurement 20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Transparency and knowledge-centric shopping 20 HYPERL

4、INK l _bookmark14 Challenges to retailer economic models 21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Key trends 23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 The consumer-driven supply chain 23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Growth fragmentation of US retail channels 24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Globalization: Why retail growth is coming from

5、“unfamiliar” markets 26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 From multichannel to omnichannel: Fully integrated brand retailing 29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Consumer-driven transparency of everything 30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Consumer-centric retailing 32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Outlook and implications 34 HYPERL

6、INK l _bookmark23 Total data value chain management 34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Dynamic clustering to optimize fragmented growth 35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Competing on a truly global scale 36 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Branding in omnichannel space 38 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 Managing data security and

7、privacy 40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 Managing diverse retail models 41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 In summary 42PwCPage 1Executive SummaryRetail 2020: Winning in a polarized worldBased upon updated research and the combined views of our retail industry professionals, following the previously issued Retail

8、ing 2015: New Frontiers, we believe successful retailers of 2020 will be those most likely to properly position themselves to master the highly dynamic marketplace in which they operate, a marketplace that will likely be increasingly polarized. The polarization of 2020 is expected to manifest itself

9、 in a variety of ways: Channel fragmentation. The US landscape is expected to experience a significant increase in non-store retail. Successful brick-and-mortar formats will look markedly different from one another. Most major retail outlets will operate a multitude of physical footprints, all aimed

10、 at pleasing their target customer in a variety of shopping modes. In fact, these footprints may not involve physical stores at all. Non-store retails accelerated growth. According to Kantar Retails Global Database, by 2020, non-store retail is expected to account for 12% of the overall US retail ma

11、rketplace for non-automotive goods. The concept of a wall-less, omnichannel retail world underpins many of the drivers, trends, and strategies that will evolve by 2020. Smaller footprints. The retail environment of the future will see retailers increasingly opening smaller stores to generate new gro

12、wth as already seen in several urban markets such as the UK, and Mexico. The online world will capture an increasing share of planned shopping trips, leaving brick and mortar retailers to capitalize on immediate, or impulse, needs. Income fragmentation adaptation. The US is the most income-polarized

13、 developed economy in the world, according t0 US Census Bureau and Operation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD) data. This polarization will continue to drive success stories at both ends of the economic spectrumincreasingly catering to a wider income range. Growth of recession-trained a

14、nd fixed-income shoppers. These groups, regardless of wealth, are expected to pursue increasingly polarized shopping decision processes. For categories these shoppers care deeply about, we expect a rise inpremium products that are tailored to their specific needs, and in the indifference categories,

15、 we expect a rise in the extreme value segment. The middle of the market will need to react with distinctive positioning to thrive.Drivers of change: A floor plan for the world without wallsTechnology-enabling, consumer-centered transparencyThe wall-less metaphor is one that has conceptual appeal fo

16、r framing the 2020 retail marketplace. More and more retail volume is expected to come from non-store-basedretail and stores will come under increased productivity and competitive pressures. The power of technology as a driver of change is not just limited to the shopper and retail environment. Incr

17、easingly, the world without walls will also require a value chain without walls as shoppers gain more transparency into all aspects of the retail supply chain. Tracking technologies like Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) and other innovations will enable seamless checkout while providing shopper

18、s the opportunity to understand everything from product origin to brand legitimacy at the touch of an icon on a handheld device. For the retailer, precise inventory level tracking, enabled by technology at all phases of the supply chain, will result in tighter management of inventory to optimize cas

19、h flow.Polarization forces value and relevance to get personalThe polarization of the retail landscape, combined with increased consumer connectivity, will be reflected in key consumer drivers that will shape the flavor of this wall-less retail environment. More personalized and contextualized commu

20、nication will change the nature of the retailer as expert. For instance, signage and service will be part of the equation, but unless retailers can apply that expertise to customized specifics about aparticular shoppers life, they may lose the opportunity to build loyalty. Retail brands will also ne

21、ed to leverage the transparency in all actions performed and this visibility will recast the nature of premium brands to be more transparent and authoritative. Big Data (large and complex sets of data that come from multiple sources) mining will enable retailers to also know a great amount about the

22、ir shoppers, with insights that go well beyond their transactional behavior.Value will also become more personalized, where a retailers pricing dialogue with its best shoppers will be centered on private conversations personally tailored to that customers preferences. Additionally, multiculturalism

23、will become an integral part of doing business as more and more brands and conversations globalize.Globalization requires more nimble retail operating modelsGlobalization is another major categories of key drivers expected to impact retailer operating models. The global nature of the materials marke

24、t makes nearly every business a global enterprise, which, when combined with the continued growth in the developing, world will put inflationary pressure on raw materials for retailers and shoppers. To meet this challenge, retailers will need a supply chain that is networked globally, but that might

25、 ironically become more intensely local. The pressure for cash flow, combined with the need for speed, will cause many retailers to consider sourcing closer to the point of final distribution rather than across an ocean.Driver manifestation: Where and how retailers will sell and operateThe retail co

26、mmunitys reaction to these core change drivers will change the definition of a successful retail model. These changes will come to life in the core areas where retailers sell, how they sell, and how they operate.Where retailers sellWe anticipate that globalization will push retail into a variety of

27、new and different types of markets. In addition to being successful at competing in different geographies, we expect that the global learning platform will influence the types of stores retailers operate. Benchmarks of global formats will spread more rapidly, and retailers will adapt global best pra

28、ctices swiftly to meet the needs of their markets. Even local retailers will be required to understand the global format portfolio in order to make sure they have a strong format strategy to compete in an increasingly polarized world.Polarization will also require physical stores to be more focused

29、and aligned with the needs of specific shoppers in distinct trading areas further enabled by technology that aids personalized conversations for an even more customized and unique experience.Replenishment planned shopping trips will be automatic, particularly in low-engagement categories and will be

30、 managed in a hands-off, online environment. Brick-and-mortar retailers will still be leveraged for immediate and acute needs and will need to be in close proximity to shoppers to be successful. This will require more precise real estate modeling and smaller physical footprints.How retailers sellTo

31、enable more personal connections, retail brands will need to be well integrated across physical, digital, and media touch points in order to realize the full range of opportunity. Retailers will weave manufacturer brand themes and resonance into their brands to tell branding stories more effectively

32、 and their reach will continue to expand beyond selling products to services and lifestyle solutions. This branding will be aimed at positioning the retailer as a one-stop life shop. The need to scale personal connections will push retailers into customization techniques that will allow personalizat

33、ion of clusterable opportunities.How retailers operateConsumer-centric stores and relationships will require a like-minded consumer-centric supply chain and operating model. Active consumer interaction in the supply chain will cause a divergence of shoppers. Some shoppers will pay significantly more

34、 for specific ingredients, faster delivery, sustainable attributes, or higher product quality. On the other hand, some will trade down to lower cost products with none of those features. Retailers will need to understand where they sit on that continuum and how many consumer- centric opportunities t

35、hey will need to leverage.Shoppers will also aggregate buying power into buying groups, and retailers may have entire departments dedicated to managing consumer buying groups. Such groups will be able to employ short-term promotions for purchase advantage or resale creating a world where retailers m

36、ay, in essence, morph into wholesalers and remain conventional retailers to individuals. All of these transitions are expected to put intense pressure on retail economic models, particularly in the mission to drive square footage and asset productivity.Strategic implications: The paradoxical choices

37、The 2020 retail landscape may represent one of the more complex environments retailers and their trading partners have ever faced. Retail organizations that do not change where and how they sell and operate will fail to adapt and succeed in this challenging landscape. The drivers and key trends weve

38、 outlined lead to core strategic choices for retailers, perhaps best described as paradoxes: the paradox of where I operate, who I sell to, what I know, and how I work.The paradox of where I operate: Am I global or local?Brick-and-mortar retail operators, we anticipate, will be under pressure to bal

39、ance localization and personalization in an increasingly global world. In order to make sense of this complexity, retailers will need to build distinctive skill sets in dynamic clustering to aggregate similar opportunities that might not be alike in obvious ways and to bring those opportunities to l

40、ife. From a global perspective, retailers will continue to search for a balance between global skill sets that can be applied everywhere and a need to adapt tothe local market. In particular, we expect that parallels will be drawn between segments of geographically disparate markets and that global

41、retailers will establish trading ecosystems made up of distinctly different country segments that have significant points of commonality.As global buyers, retailers will need to increase their ability to partner with their global trading partners to understand the world and capitalize on opportunity

42、, as opposed to simply trying to leverage scale for lower acquisition costs.The paradox of who I sell to: Am I a standard brand or a series of personal relationships?The importance of retail brands in helping shoppers simplify their lives will likely continue to be crucial, but in 2020, the brand wi

43、ll be less standard and more tailored to the specific customer. Touch points will be more complex and require proficient integration. The key to bringing this all together is a retailers conversational marketing skills. Leading retailers will be classified by those that are the best conversationalis

44、ts good at listening to their shoppers needs, along with communicating a secure and self- confident image to its consumers. This conversational prowess will also help retailers leverage other best-in-class brands they sell to build their equity.The paradox of what I know: Is data an advantage or a r

45、isk?Data mining skills, we believe, will be very important to retailers in order to understand and anticipate the needs of their shoppers. In fact, total value chain management will be a competency set that distinguishes leading retailers from the norm. Retailers will not merely use their transactio

46、nal and point-of-sale data, but will be able to integrate this information with other external data sources to tell more engaging stories. Transaction data must be translated into compelling stories, even in large scale operating models (employing tens of thousands of associates). Data architecture

47、plays a major role in this ability to tell stories: great retailers will be able to dynamically link disparate data sources to tell the right story at the right time.Data presents significant risks as well. Data security could become either a much larger business risk or a regulated part of the reta

48、il landscape. Some shoppers may opt to be off the grid and require a very different, less technologically-driven relationship. Retailers may decide the risk is not worth the return and may outsource significant aspects of data management to experts, possibly other retailers.The paradox of how I work

49、: Efficiency versus effectivenessRetailers, because they are more operationally-oriented, tend to be far better at efficiency than effectiveness. By 2020, the leading retailers will be those who best blend effectiveness into efficiency yielding a concept that we call the new efficiency. The new effi

50、ciency can be viewed as having the following four components:The ability to realize and quantify opportunity as opposed to simply seeing the hard costs associated with change.The need to understand lowest potential cost and understand how costs might be lower if the work were required to be differen

51、t because the landscape has changed.A holistic understanding of total value chain productivity.The ability to stop doing unproductive work and reimagine new ways to execute.Understanding these paradoxes and the interplay with the key drivers of change will spur retailers to devise new ways of workin

52、g as shoppers needs change, and the demands for service in an omnichannel world grow ever more acute. The following sections of this report shed light on these and many other relevant opportunities that are critical as businesses position themselves for success in 2020 in what we expect to be a very

53、 challenging retail world.OverviewThis chapter investigates current US market conditions that could shape the retail landscape through 2020: Retail industry overview: Transition from Maturation to Post-Modern market Consumer behavior overview: Post-recession consumer behavior changesRetail industry

54、overview:Transition from Maturation to Post-Modern marketThe US retail industry is currently considered as being in the Maturation stage ascompared to other countries retail sectors and is rapidly progressing toward the Post- Modern retail evolutionary stage, according to Kantar Retails Retail Marke

55、t Evolution Model (Fig. 1). In the Maturation stage, the US retail market continues to concentrate and to be reduced to fewer companies, some major retailers fail and, in parallel, available real estate saturates the market. Further, Supercenter formats (Hyper/Mass Channel) capture a disproportionat

56、e share of all US retail.As the retail industry evolves toward the Post-Modern period, the end of Supercenter growth will be a key change in the retail landscape both for retailers and suppliers. The retail industry will also experience the proliferation of small, urban, alternative retail formats,

57、as well as reliance on multi-format portfolios to capture future growth. This will likely compound the dismantling of mass homogenization and scale assumptions that propelled two decades of US retail growth and that has resulted in a highly fragmented retail landscape for shoppers.By 2020, the US re

58、tail industry will have entered the Post-Modern retail evolution phase, joining the likes of Germany and the UK, whereby retail is characterized by high levels of chain competition and a slow pace of growth among major chains. Post-modern retailing will also bring limited square footage growth, incr

59、ease the pressure on existing space to be productive, and heighten retailer investment in independent capabilities (e.g., private brands, direct to consumer advertising and marketing). As a result, large chain retail growth through the decade is anticipated to remain very close to the early 2010s re

60、cessionary rate, with about one-third of large chain growth coming from online sales.CONCENTRATION: 2010 Top 3 Retailers Share of All Types of RetailFigure 1: Retail Market Evolution Model-5%26%24%22%20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%Nascent StateExplorationConcentration Penetration South AfricaArge