價值1.5萬億美元的美國食品市場的消費趨勢即將改變

1、Global Research23 March 2020EquitiesUS Consumer Packaged Goods Consumption Trends for the $1.5 Trillion US Food Market is About to Swing (in slides)Pandemic behavior is likely to shift consumption for the $1.5t US Food industry US Food expenditures approach $1.5 trillion and is a near even split mix

2、 between food- away from home (51%) and food at home (49%). Given the recent series of restaurant and school closure announcements, we believe household food purchasing behavior is likely to pivot more aggressively to at-home consumption than in prior recessionary periods such as 08-09 (1pp channel

3、mix shift). Restaurants represent 76% of food- away spend and schools represent 9% of this mix. Seated diners at US restaurants on the OpenTable network was down 100% YoY on 3/21. Food takeout and delivery serve as partial offsets, but are not sufficient to fully recoup total restaurant sales. We an

4、ticipate sales risk for CPGs w/large foodservice channel exposure (BYND, KO, BF.B) and favor pantry load categories such as frozen meals and water (NOMD, CAG, FIZZ).We stress test GDP, closures, and % of delivery offset in our interactive model We built an interactive model (link) to scenario test 2

5、020 Food At Home vs Food Away From Home spend by flexing 4 variables: U.S. GDP, # of days schools & restaurants are closed, % of restaurants and schools closed, and % of sales delivery cannot offset for restaurants that remain open. In our baseline (schools/restaurants closed for 30 days), we estima

6、te Food At Home spend increases 5% YoY (+3.3 pp mix shift or $52bn) and Food Away From Home declines -7.3%. In a prolonged closure scenario (90 days), we est Food At Home increases 17% YoY (+10 pp shift) and Food Away declines 23%.HPC saw the first surge in retail sales, we anticipate Packaged Food

7、is nextIn late Feb and 1st wk of March, consumers stocked-up on Household products as seen in the latest Nielsen data (note link). However, as consumers shift to Food At Home, we anticipate food purchases to accelerate through March. Everyday products (cleaning, frozen, water) are best positioned to

8、 capture both a near-term surge in demand and increased longer-term consumption. The longer restaurants stay closed, we would expect categories such as fresh food and proteins to experience sustained demand.Severe restaurant sales declines likely to continue as away-from-home mix falls Significant r

9、estaurant sales declines from weak demand, closed dining rooms & modified capacity are likely to continue, w/ only limited offset from delivery/take out/drive-thru. Our franchisee checks & industry contacts highlight ongoing challenges.Consumer, Non-CyclicalAmericasSteven StryculaAnalyst HYPERLINK m

10、ailto:steven.strycula steven.strycula+1-212-713 1428Dennis Geiger, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:dennis.geiger dennis.geiger+1-212-713 9313Michael LasserAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:michael.lasser michael.lasser+1-212-713 2440Sean KingAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:sean.king sean.king+1-212-713 2329Erika Jackso

11、n Associate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:erika.jackson erika.jackson+1-212-713 1426Andrew OlsenAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:andrew.olsen andrew.olsen+1-212-713 9147Carey SloaneAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:carey.sloane carey.sloane+1-212-713 8695Ryan Kidd Associate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:ryan.kidd ryan.kidd+1-

12、212-713-4708Mark CardenAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:mark.carden mark.carden+1-212-713 3218 HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 25. UBS does and seeks to do business with compani

13、es covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.U.S. Food & Bev Expenditures: S

14、trongly correlates to U.S. GDPTotal Real Food Expenditures YOY vs. US Real GDP6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0% Total U.S. Food Expenditures are strongly correlated to U.S. GDP growth (85%).Based on a regression using historical data (1998- 2018), UBS Economists U.S. GDP forecasts of -1% in 2020 and +3.1%

15、in 2021 would imply Food Expenditures of -0.9% in 2020E and +2.5% in 2021E.UBSeTotal Food YOYUS Real GDP400bps 300bps 200bps 100bps 0bps (100bps) (200bps)-5.0%Food Away From Home YOY vs. Change in U.S. Unemployment YOYFood Away From Home has a 84% inverse correlation with changes in the unemployment

16、 rate.UBS economists forecast an unemployment rate of 5.7% in 2020, up 210 bps YoY. The last time unemployment increased to this degree was in 2008-2009. In those years Food Away From Home spend declined 1.1% and 3.7% in constant $.-3.0%-1.0%1.0%3.0%5.0%UBSeChange in Unemployment YOY (LHS)Food Away

17、From Home YOY (RHS, inverted)Sospac: USDA, UBS estimatesUS Consumer Packaged Goods 23 March 2020 2US Consumer Packaged Goods 23 March 2020 3Tmral Fmmd (2.18, nmminal)$1.5 rpillimnFmmd ar Fmme49% mivFmmd Auaw dpmm Fmme51% mivFmmd Srmpes (epmaepw, a- srmpe, mrhep) 63% mivAlsbs & Ssnepaenreps 22% mivMa

18、ss Mepahandiseps 1% mivOrhep Srmpes 1.% mivMail & FmmeFapmeps & DelitepwUhmlesaleps3% miv1% mivResraspanrs & Dpiniine nlaaes76% mivFmrels and mmrels 4% mivRerail srmpesReapearimnalSahmmls andand tendine 5% mivnlaaes 4% mivamlleees 9% mivOrhep 3% mivIn 2018 (the latest available year of annual data e

19、x-tips & taxes), Food Away from Home represented 51% of total Food Expenditures in nominal dollars (48% in constant dollars).U.S. Food Expenditures: Food at Home vs. Food Away From HomeMix shift towards Food at Home during 2008-2009Mix: Food at Home vs Food Away from HomeDuring 2008-2009 recession,

20、there was a 1 pp wallet share mix shift to Food at Home spend.In the years following the recession, the spread narrowed with Food Away from Home gaining2 pp wallet share mix.56%54%52%50%48%46%44%Food at Home MixFood Away from Home MixSospac: USDA, UBS estimatesPer USDA data, during the 2008-2009 rec

21、ession, Food at Home channels outperformed Food Away from Home channels, as consumers tend to eat more at home during recessionary periods.Per Euromonitor data, Packaged Food Retail salcs ucpc npgmapglw tolsmc dpgtcl gl 0009. In most other years, sales growth was driven by price/mix.2008-09 analog:

22、Food at Home Outperformed Food Away from HomeU.S. Packaged Food Retail Sales YoY- Volume vs. Price/Mix6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%-4.0%-5.0%Food at Home YOYFood Away from Home YOY2.5%Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home (YoY%)2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%2006 2007 200820092010 2

23、011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019VolumePrice/MixFood Away from Home Channel Sales YoY (2-yr stack)13%9%7%3%4%5%4%-3%-9%-7%-6%-7%-9%-10%Food Away from Home channel:Restaurants were the worst performers during 2008-2009 (on a 2-year stack basis).Food sales in the Education channels cont to g

24、row during the 2008-2009 time period.Full-serviceLimited-serviceHotels andRetail storesRecreationalSchools andOther (4% ofSospac: USDA, Euromonitor, UBS estimatesrestaurantsrestaurantsmotels (4% ofand vendingplaces (4% of colleges (10%mix)Norc: Charts using USDA data (top left, bottom right) are bas

25、ed on constant 1988 dollars. Chart using Euromonitor data (top right) is based on constant 2019 dollars.(35% of mix) (38% of mix)mix)(5% of mix) 20072009mix)of mix)US Consumer Packaged Goods 23 March 2020 4US Consumer Packaged Goods 23 March 2020 508-09 Recession vs Today: Macro Similarities and Dif

26、ferencesSimilaritiesUBS and other economists forecast a US recession in 2020Global impacts (not just isolated to the US or any one country)US Federal Reserve reduced ratesPossibly a fiscal response from the US government (various bills being discussed currently)Causation: health crisis induced 2020

27、recession vs. credit / housing crisis induced recession in 2008-2009Foodservice: restaurants and schools are closing down today as a result of social distancing reouirementsGDP implications: UBS economists forecasting one year of negative GDP in the US (2020). During the Great Recession, real GDP wa

28、s negative in 2008 (-0.1%) and 2009 (-2.5%).DifferencesTimeline of Events: U.S. News Headline SummaryDec 31 1st case of coronavirus detectedHan 11 1st deathFeb 22 Death tollMar 5 Cases in US spike to 233 w/ 12 deaths. Outbreak in Seattle, WAMar 17 US limits gatherings to:10 people. Government shuts

29、down restaurants, gyms, theatresMar 20 NY mandates all non-essential workers stay homefrom coronaviruscrosses 2,000 globallyMar 13 Schoolsclose in WA & OHHansapwFebpsapwFeb 22 Cut off for data release on Mar 3rdHan 21 1st US confirmed coronavirus16,000 Cumulative Confirmed Cases - USA 14,000MapFeb 2

30、9 1st USconfirmed coronavirus deathr 14 USafMa de EMar 7 Cut off for data release on Mar 17thclares Natl mergencyMar 16 SFdeclares shelter in place for entire cityMar 31 Next Nielsen release thru Mar 21stUS Consumer Packaged Goods 23 March 2020 6Mar 21 Cut off for Nielsen data release on Mar 31st12,

31、000Nevr Nielsel dara release sfmsld sareel disnrmnmrrimlarelw nmsirite dmr Naaiaeed Fmmd srmais10,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000Sospac: WHO database; Various news articlesUS Consumer Packaged Goods 23 March 2020 7Restaurant Closures: checks with industry channel contactsFormer VP Sales at a national foods

32、ervice distributor #1: Believes that less than half of the restaurant system has an efficient takeout business. He believes 1/4 of all restaurants will simply close during this time rather than try and create a takeout business. There will likely be a small offset from lost restaurant sales as healt

33、h care facilities increase purchases, but overall he estimates 25-30% of food expenditures during this time will shift out of the Food Away From Home channels.Former VP Sales at a national foodservice distributor #2: Believes that 30% of all restaurants will simply close during this time rather than

34、 try and create a takeout business, and that 5-10% will go out of business. He noted that restaurants with drive-throughs are performing better than delivery, as it eliminates 1 extra person handling the food. He thinks restaurants will be able to recoup lost sales if they are only shut down for 1 m

35、onth (expects to see a surge in demand once they reopen), but if shutdowns extend into the summer they will not be able to recoup lost sales.Papa Hohns Franchisee: Seeing a significant drop in sales. Noted that there has been a significant drop in 3rd party aggregator sales in the last 10-12 days to

36、o as consumers adhust to being at home. Believes that after a month the 3rd party aggregators will not be able to defer commissions if that happens, thinks some restaurants will have to go offline.President at Convenience Development Corporation: Thinks that convenience store grab & go type products

37、 and prepared foodservice could replace some restaurant eating occasions.Former GM at AmazonPrime Now: Believes it will take more than 3 months for restaurants to recover. During closure period expects to see a mix shift to retail and e-commerce.General Mills 3Q Earnings call: Saw substantial declin

38、es in Foodservice business in APAC during Q3 roughly 50bps headwind to net sales and 150bps headwind to adh. op profit and adh. EPS. Mgmt. expects North America Foodservice to be negatively impacted in Q4, and for Food At Home to remain elevated in Q4 then unwind in FY21.US Consumer Packaged Goods 2

39、3 March 2020 8OpenTables data shows year-over-year seated diners at restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins.The latest data point, March 21, indicates seated diners were down 100% YOY across the US.All 36 states included in Open

40、Tables data are now closed or nearly fully closed to in-restaurant dining (seated diners down 99% or more YOY as of March 21). See the next slide for state level data.OpenTable Data: Measuring Seated Diners DailyCountry1-Mar 2-Mar 3-Mar 4-Mar 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar

41、 14-Mar 15-Mar 16-Mar 17-Mar 18-Mar 19-Mar 20-Mar 21-MarGlobal0%-8%-9%-6%-7%-7%-4%-3% -14%-18%-19%-28%-36%-40%-47%-56%-83%-89%-96%-98%-99%Australia Canada Germany Ireland MexicoUnited KingdomUnited States4%-7%-12%-6% -12%-8%-6%-3%-4% -10% -4%-10%-12%-8%-11%-12%-30% -43%-50%-53%-52%-54% -12%-7% -2%-4

42、%-8%-9%-1%-13%-18%-19%-10%-16%-11%-28% -40%-41%-47%-60%-63%-70%-94%-97%-99% -100% -100%-90%-95%-98%-99% -100%9%10%-8%-6% 0%-4%-6%-7% -7%-1% -15% -13%4%11%-17% -28% -38%-46%-5%-2%-3%-3%4% -10% -28%-27% -46%-51%-52%-75%-86%-97%-99%-99%-99%-7%-7% -10%-6%-6%-8%-2%-7% -11%-9% -12%-5%-5%1%-2%-19%-16%-15%-

43、16%-16%-21%-35%-31%-48%-52%-56%-62%-73%-78%-85%-91% -18%-17%-14%-24% -26%-20% -82%-88%-91%-94%-100%-100%2%-7%-9%-5%-5%-6%-14%-18%-19%-28%-36%-42%-48%-84%-91%-98%-99%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%U.S. Seated Diners YOYSospac: OpenTableOpenTable Data: Measuring Seated Diners Daily- by U.S. StateU.S. State

44、1-Mar 2-Mar 3-Mar 4-Mar 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar 16-Mar 17-Mar 18-Mar 19-Mar 20-Mar 21-Mar Alabama2% -32% -29% -23% -15% -3% 11% -10% -11% -26% -8% -2% -24% -28% -38% -57% -74% -78% -97% -100% -100% Arizona-2% -7% -10% 0% -4% -3% -2% -3% -7% -14% -20% -

45、18% -26% -24% -37% -54% -77% -93% -96% -98% -100%California-3%-6%-4%-3%-10%-8%-5%-5%-18%-27%-23%-38%-42%-47%-55%-70%-96%-99%-100%-100%-100%Colorado26%-1%-6%-6%-4%-8%-10%-6%-13%-17%-8%-17%-41%-45%-52%-66%-98%-100%-100%-100%-100%Connecticut13% 13%-9%-6%-7%-8%-8%0% -12%-20%-20% -43%-50%-58%-57%-55%-100

46、% -100% -100% -100% -100%-18%-22%-38%-44%-44%-55%-77%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%-18%-18%-23%-28%-31%-38%-47%-76%-84%-90%-97%-100%District of Columbia 5%0%-9%7%-5%-6%0%0% -10%Florida-5% -10% -10%-8%-7%-5%-2%-5% -18%Georgia 8% -12% -21% -17% -12% -3%-2%7%-4% -15%-17%-23% -34%-36%-47%-66%-88%-93%-95%-98%

47、-99%Hawaii-2%-2%-5%-4%-5%-8%-6%-9%-8%-10%-11% -15%-14%-19%-26%-31% -47% -71% -83%-97%-99%Illinois2%-13%-12%-3%-5%-7%4%4% -21%-18%-22%-26%-35% -47%-51%Indiana18%1%-3%3%5%1%4%4% -17%-11%-16% -29%-34%-48%-51%-61%-67%-100% -100% -100% -100% -100%-96%-97% -100% -100% -100%Kansas69%-13%-14%-8%-10%-10%-8%-

48、9%-21%-6%-9%-1%-35%-39%-55%Kentucky19%-5%0%-6%4%-3%1%3%-17%-21%-20%-26%-30%-46%-55%-28% -34% -50%-55%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%-37% -59%-67%-71%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%-67% -79%-94%-99%-99%-99%Louisiana-19%Maryland25%Massachusetts-1%-42% -53% -25%6%5%5%-2% -8%-13%-16%-23%-74%-100% -100% -100% -100%-

49、99%-5%-4%11%-5%2%-2%-1%-6%-18%-21%-33%Missouri Nebraska13% -4%-5%4%-6%-5% 13%-13%-22%-25%-41%-52%-41%-53%-76%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%-14%-10%-18%-21%-43%-49%-54%-78%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%-17%-12%-18%-24%-30%-43%-51%-72%-98%-100%-100%-100%-100%-13%-10%-12%-25%-29%-42%-45%-65%-88%-90%-97%-100%-100

50、%-34%-11%-16%-2%-31%-32%-44%-59%-95%-100%-99%-100%-100%Michigan-4%4%Minnesota-1%-9%-13% -1%-4%-9%6%1%-2%-3% -17% -12% 59% 13%72% 8%0%-3% 4%0%-5% -10%Nevada-15%-28%-27%-11%-10%-6%New Hersey10%-5%-12%-2%-4%-16%New Mexico-2%-4%-7%-12%-19%-2%New York0%-7%-11%-9%-8%-14%North Carolina2%-7%-9%-4%-7%-1%-2%

51、16% -14%1%-1% -18% -10%-4%-6%-7% -11%-18%-12%-21%-6% 10% 12% -4%-14% -26%-31%-40%-37%-40%-44% -56%-69%-94%-99%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%-79%-89%-98%-100%-100%-72%-58%-88%-100%-100%-100%-100%-75%-93%-92%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%-10%-21% 0%7%2%-10%-35%-40% -44%-47%-10

52、%-2% -15% -27%-32% -49%-54%-36% -47%Ohio6% -7% -10%-6%-8%-13%-6%Oklahoma40% -12% 5%0%3%2%0%-2%-7% -4%-9%-14%-22%-28% -56%-63%-6% -19%-10%0%-19%-19%-29%-37%-51%-51%-4%-7%1%-20%-29%-31%-53% -83% -70%-99%-99%-99%Oregon6%8%-8%-3%-3%-4%-7%0% -15%-13%-22%-33%-40%-47%-55%-61%-99%-100%-100%-100%-100%Pennsyl

53、vania30% 3%-6%0%2%-9%-3%2%-7%-18%-17%-35%-44%-51%-56%-68%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%Rhode Island-11% 18% -1%7% -12%-2%-7% 26% 17%-16%-15%-31%-41%-48%-50%-53%-100%-100%-100%-100%-100%South Carolina8%1%-8%-7%-7%3%3%Tennessee-6%-6%-16%-1%-4%-1%2%Texas7%-2%-9%-8%1%2%-3%-60%-86%-92%-94%-98%-99%-58%-90%-95%

54、-99%-99%-100%-5%-7%-14%-7%-16%-7% -17%-16%-22%-28%-19%-21%-31%-34%-41%-46%-48% -70%-100% -100% -100% -100%-5% -21%-14%-14% -25%-35%-34%-42%Utah -12% -13%-6%-5%-3% 8%0% -13% -18%-19%-11%-19%-28%-34%-53%-69%-69% -82%-100% -100% -100%Virginia14%-4%-1%-1%-2%5%2%3%-4%-13%-23%-34%-34%-39%-50%-65%-90%-97%-

55、98%-99%-99%Washington-12%-25% -21% -17% -22% -24% -27% -22% -30%-38%-41%-45%-53%-54%-57%-70%-100% -100%-100%-100%-100%US Consumer Packaged Goods 23 March 2020 9Sospac: OpenTable23% responded that they were eating home cooked meals more often vs. 6 months ago.US Consumer Packaged Goods 23 March 2020

56、10Prosper Monthly Consumer Survey: Consumers Food Away From Home Spending IntentionsProsper Insights & Analytics conducted a survey of 8,000 consumers from March 2nd to March 10th note that the survey was conducted prior to large scale restaurant shutdowns. We highlight some of the key findings rela

57、ted to consumers Food Away From Home spending intentions.13% of respondents indicated they were avoiding restaurants as a result of the coronavirus.Q: Otep rhe nevr 9. daws (Mapah, Anpil, Maw), dm wms nlan mn snendine mmpe, rhe same mp less mn Gmine msr rm ear rhan wms umsld nmpmallw snend ar rhis m

58、d rhe weap?When asked how the current state of the U.S. economy was affecting household spending plans,18% selected dining out less freouently14% of respondents indicated they have reduced dining out spending due to fluctuating gas prices.More 11%Less 30%Same 59%Sospac: Prosper Insights & Analytics,

59、 Monthly Consumer Survey, March 2020Note: The Prosper Monthly Consumer Survey for March 2020 surveyed 7,897 respondents from March 2-March 10US Consumer Packaged Goods 23 March 2020 11Food at Home vs. Away From Home Interactive Model: We estimate food at home could see a 3.3 pp mix shift in 2020We b

60、uilt an interactive model (screenshot on next slide) to stress test:Total Food Expenditures YOY in 2020 flexing U.S. GDPMix of Food at Home spend vs. Food Away from Home spend flexing % of restaurants and schools closed and number of days closedBase Case Assumptions:30% of restaurants are fully clos