以香港經(jīng)驗看疫情對物管行業(yè)的短期沖擊和長期變化

1、1. 51.1.51.2.71.3.111.4.111.5.112. 122.1.122.2.142.3.142.4.162.5.192.6.202.7.223.2020 223.1.223.2.6098.HK 253.3.6049.HK 263.4.1995.HK 273.5.001914.SZ 281 62 73 74 105 1061171181191110 1311 1312& 1313“” 1314“” 1415 1416top10 1417 1518 1619 1620 1621 1622SARS 1723 1724 1825 1826 1927ROE 2028 2029 2130

2、 2131 2132 2133 2234PE-TTM 23352020 23362020 23372020 2338 2639 2640 2841 281 62 73 84 85 96218 107 128 159 1810WM.N 2011 2512 2613 2714 281. 1.1. 2 120192.98 17%21124-22535-40 125-22 125-331 125-29 21-229 125-213131.2.2%22016 2017 2018 2019H11156.8454.2%1571.3259.1%1879.7155.6%1194.6655.4%509.3823.

3、9%605.7022.7%818.3224.3%519.1224.1%199.379.3%241.659.1%315.779.3%169.717.9%38.841.8%53.482.0%74.012.2%149.486.9%11.420.5%12.190.5%20.430.6%12.820.6%63.713.0%16.400.6%20.720.6%14.010.7%156.187.3%158.826.0%249.157.4%95.714.4%2135.72100.0%2659.54100.0%3378.10100.0%2155.50100.0%2016 2017 2018 2019H14103

4、7.5786.0%52445.3987.0%61127.7687.6%33571.9187.1%1894.324.0%7156.3711.9%1959.752.8%1154.503.0%-27.490.1%-1789.203.0%524.120.8%16.040.0%879.751.8%983.631.6%1227.451.8%748.061.9%2219.004.7%2968.544.9%2879.034.1%1577.954.1%778.641.6%902.551.5%992.661.4%565.041.5%740.171.6%709.841.2%563.620.8%223.530.6%7

5、68.811.6%460.550.8%689.871.0%459.731.2%401.410.8%638.131.1%807.261.2%472.731.2%412.430.9%522.940.9%583.500.8%338.450.9%52.960.1%71.040.1%56.440.1%28.430.1%144.940.3%194.720.3%292.260.4%170.740.4%107.990.2%200.570.3%238.230.3%184.740.5%176.290.4%211.300.4%299.270.4%195.400.5%47719.96100.0%60309.21100

6、.0%69757.35100.0%38536.71100.0%28100.50.5 4 2/72/10 2/89080-9090%/70%10/5 0.50.5 21826242613%-14%60%2410%1 0.7-6 218 45671.3.22019 1.85201919%2.85201917%891.4.2201.5.7 2.2.1.101112&132.2.142.3.TOP10 11.35%19H115.4%2837 121516top1012330%1220%50%172003SARS50%30%20%826/4/2018 30/06/19975%-20%30% 50%20%

7、10%30%50%50%201518192005.03 2005.0640000 7000 20212.4.2003SAR300USARS22SARSSARS03237200316801.024402004-201967002009-2017 242005.03252005.06201992017.04.252017.7.242017.12.82018.4.232018.7.312018.10.312018.12.132019.4.192019.7.302.5.26ROE2018WM.NRSG60%30%60%70%27ROE28WindWind10 WM.N20162017201824102

8、8.40%250027.71%270329.22%97411.48%99611.04%110511.95%107612.68%117012.97%125513.57%119314.06%123613.70%137514.87%COGS85810.11%96910.74%7838.47%3003.54%3754.16%4094.42%7028.27%7538.35%5986.47%3524.15%3283.64%5986.47%1922.26%2192.43%2352.54%4295.06%4755.27%4554.92%8486100.00%9021100.00%9249100.00%WM.N

9、2.6.20181083120009974341803425481220021061350002018 330099436391203220977 14429017 80%11%313220205029302.7.193.2020 3.1.2171723.25%7.14%19.32 131233,Wind21752202033.46 20204534PE-TTM352020WindWind50%32%A 362020372020WindWind2020 1.122019 2021 2019-21CAGR30%2. 19H1 2020 21.6193.4.5.A20192019123120185

10、0%1 201922018H1/18/19H120%201912552210% 6%20196237.720187425.42256 5.842019H1,2.17 0.580.82201920202021EPS 1.11PE49.234.825.711 2017A2018A2019E2020E2021E3,1224,6757,33510,49914,554(+/-)%32.37%49.76%56.88%43.14%38.63%4029231,5632,2113,009(+/-)%23.92%129.79%69.32%41.43%36.10%0.160.370.580.821.11177.82

11、77.2649.1934.7925.7054.5134.2616.3913.8711.71(%)30.65%44.28%33.07%39.58%45.48%(%)-0.44%0.68%0.96%1.31%()250025002710.892710.892710.89Wind21820202019H1,1.120.73/1.6620180.0322019H11.481.21 38392019-2021EPS1.04 1.35 1.72PE58.545.135.2 12 2017A2018A2019E2020E2021E3,2404,2295,9067,98410,381(+/-)%26.37%3

12、0.52%39.66%35.18%30.02%220328567737946(+/-)%51.01%49.33%71.26%29.49%28.02%0.420.631.041.351.72139.41100.0258.5145.1035.2581.2648.2637.0236.3035.59(%)58.29%51.69%65.46%83.11%104.31%()533.33533.33553.33553.33553.33Wind21820204900126 7506900 86203401720 2000 2019202061008700 2019 20%43%49%29%2018 3.25p

13、ct6.71pct2201920202021EPS0.140.210.27 PE53.235.527.6 13 2017A2018A2019E2020E2021E7251,0761,5992,2272,575(+/-)%51.12%45.94%74.25%46.13%31.30%76100217317417(+/-)%127.50%31.14%116.59%46.10%31.32%0.050.070.140.210.27138.53106.4653.2335.4927.6043.2811.789.728.848.03(%)31.24%11.15%19.45%25.84%30.85%()1500

14、15001536.41536.41536.4Wind2182020AA20192.6-3.15.47-5.97 64%-70%12.46002019 8213 246320192018 4.4%4041 2019-212.766.789.672019122019 20202020211435.825.42020216.559.232017A2018A2019E2020E2021E5,8936,6566,88810,73012,918(+/-)%-6.89%12.94%3.49%55.77%20.39%151857275678967(+/-)%-6.74%468.85%-67.88%146.35%42