管理學(xué)原理英文課件（武漢理工大學(xué)）2-2Cap5 Decisions-making

1、Chapter 5 Decisions-making The decision-making processThe rational modelThe common errors in the decision-makingTypes of problems, decisions and level in the organizationDecision-making stylesMaking-decision in groups 1Exhibit 5-1 The Decision-Making ProcessIdentification of a problemIdentificationo

2、f decision criteriaAllocationof weights To criteriaDevelopment ofalternativesAnalysis ofalternativesSelection of an alternativeImplementation of the alternativeEvaluation of decisioneffectiveness2The problem A single, All alternatives Preferences Preferences No time Final choiceis clear and well-def

3、ined and are clear are constant or cost will maximizeunambiguous goal is to consequences and stable constraints economic be achieved are known exist payoffLeadtoRational Decision MakingExhibit 5-2 Assumptions of Rationality3Bounded Rationality This is the behavior that people construct simplified mo

4、dels that extract the essential features from problems without capturing all of their complexities in order to decide rationally.4Availability heuristic This is the tendency to base judgments on information that is readily available.Representative heuristic This is the tendency for people to base ju

5、dgments of probability on things with which they are familiar.Escalation of commitment It refers to an increased commitment to a previous decision despite negative information5Exhibit 5-3 Types of Problems , Decisions and Level in the OrganizationLevel inorganizationIll-structuredType of problemWell

6、-structuredTopLowerProgrammeddecisionsNonprogrammeddecisions6Types of ProblemsWell-structured problems are problems that are straightforward, familiar to the decision maker, and the goal is clear, the information about them are complete. Ill-structure problems are new, or unusual, and information ab

7、out such problems is ambiguous or incomplete. 7Types of DecisionsProgrammed decision is a repetitive decision that can be handle by a routine approach. (Procedure, rule, policy)Non-programmed decision is a decision that must be custom-made to solve unique and non-recurring problems. 8Exhibit 5-4 Dec

8、ision-MakingHighLowRationIntuitiveAnalyticConceptualDirectiveBehavioralWay of ThinkingTolerance for Ambiguity9The Advantages and Disadvantages of Group Decision MakingMore complete informationMore alternativesIncreasing acceptance of a solutionIncreasing legitimacy and democracyAdvantagesTime-consum

9、ingMinority dominationPressures to conform (groupthink)Ambiguous responsibilityDisadvantages10Several Effective Ways of Group Decision-Making Brainstorming This is an idea-generating process that encourages alternatives while withholding criticism.Nominal group technique This is a decision-making te

10、chnique in which group members are physically present but operate independently.11Delphic technique This is a decision-making technique in which participants are specialist in some field, they are not necessary to assemble together, and required to write solution alternatives anonymously. Electronic

11、 meeting This is a type of nominal group technique in which participants are linked by computers.12Study & PracticeHow to organize an effective meeting?Whats the actions of the bounded-rational decision maker?Whats the advantages and disadvantages of group decisions?Understand several important ways

12、 of group decision13 Quantitative Decision-Making TechniquesPayoff Matrices Decision TreesBreak-Even Analysis 14Payoff MatricesMaximax choice Optimistic decision, maximizing the maximum possible payoff Maximin choice Pessimistic decision , maximizing the minimum possible payoff Regret choice Minimiz

13、ing the maximum regret 15Exhibit Payoff Matrix for DiscoverDiscover Marketing strategy Visas Response(in millions of $) CA1 CA2 CA3 S1 13 14 11 S2 9 15 18 S3 24 21 15 S4 18 14 2816Exhibit 6-2 Maximax ChoiceDiscover Marketing strategy Visas Response(in millions of $) CA1 CA2 CA3 S1 13 14 11 14 S2 9 1

14、5 18 18 S3 24 21 15 24 S4 18 14 28 28MaxS42817Exhibit 6-3 Maximin ChoiceDiscover Marketing strategy Visas Response(in millions of $) CA1 CA2 CA3 S1 13 14 11 11 S2 9 15 18 9 S3 24 21 15 15 S4 18 14 28 14MinS31518Exhibit 6-3 Regret ChoiceDiscover Marketing strategy Visas Response(in millions of $) CA1

15、 CA2 CA3 S1 13(11) 14(7) 11(17) 17 S2 9(15) 15(6) 18(10) 15 S3 24(0) 21(0) 15(13) 13 S4 18(6) 14(7) 28 (0) 7MaxS4 719Exhibit 6-4 Decision Trees=Decision point=Alternatives branch=Probability branch=Possible value=Outcome point20Exhibit 6-4 Decision Tree and Expected Values for Renting a Large or Sma

16、ll Retail Space$240,000Rent12,000sq.ftRent20,000sq.ftStrong.70Strong.70Weak.30Weak.30$320,000$50,000$130,000Expected value(in 000s).70320+.3050=239Expected value(in 000s).70240+.30130=20721RentRentStrong.70Strong.70Weak.30Weak.30$320,000$50,000$130,000Add 4000$10,000No expansion$300,000$240,0002 years8 years22Break-Even AnalysisThis