脆弱的地球：10個(gè)氣候領(lǐng)先國(guó)家的機(jī)遇

1、Opportunities across 10 climate-leading nationsFragile planetTHIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA (THE PRC) (EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAO)Our latest Fragile Planet multi-factor analysis considers the political-economy of the low-carb

2、on transitionWe identify Climate Leaders Group of Seven Nations the C-7 headed by Germany, and three EM-Leaders, including ChinaHere, we use our proprietary HSBC Climate Solutions Database to identify companies, with high revenues from various climate themes, from across ten leading countriesScoring

3、 climate political economyIn HYPERLINK /R/20/CQcRqWB Fragile planet: The politics and economics of the low-carbon transition, 10 April 2019, we seek to answer a question:Which countries have the political economy the policy, government and10 April 2019Climate Change & Equity StrategyGlobalAmit Shriv

4、astava*Equity Strategist, Lead - HSBC Climate Solutions DatabaseHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited HYPERLINK mailto:amit1.shrivastavahsbc.co.in amit1.shrivastavahsbc.co.in+91 80 4555 2759Ashim PaunDirector, Climate Change Strategy HSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:ashim.paun as

5、him.paun+44 20 7992 3591Lucy Acton* ESG Analyst HSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:lucy.acton lucy.acton+44 20 3359 3365Wai-Shin Chan, CFAHead, Climate Change Centre of ExcellenceThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:wai.shin.chan.hk wai.shin.chan.hk+852 2822 4870institu

6、tions, economic diversity and existing energy resources to indicate a competitive advantage as the world progresses with a low-carbon transition?To answer this, we looked at which countries have: (1) higher levels of fossil fuels and emissions in their economies, and are more or less diversified awa

7、y from fossil fuels in GDP and exports, as well as who has cheaper oil and gas for the future;stronger climate policy outlooks and overall potential to respond in terms of available financial resources and the institutional quality to use it prudently;economic exposure to climate change related reve

8、nues from listed companies and adjacent industries to indicate future ability to profit from the transition.Introducing the C-7We use this analysis to identify the seven countries which are best placed for the low- carbon transition we call these the HSBC Climate-Seven Group of Countries or C-7, led

9、 by Germany, Sweden and Austria. We also spotlight three EM states in our analysis.Our Climate Solutions stock screensIn this note, we have included stock screens, pulled from the HSBC Climate Solutions Database, which give focussed screens of companies generating at least 10% of revenues from clima

10、te change themes (which include low carbon energy production, energy efficiency and other environmental themes), with a minimum market cap of USD500m. The companies we identify with the highest climate revenues from each of the ten focus countries, are: Siemens AG, Nibe Industrier AB, Andritz AG, El

11、ectricite De France, Vestas Windsystems A/S, Johnson Controls, SEE Plc, GREE Electrical Appliances, LG Chem and UPL Ltd.Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations HYPERLINK /quickvote Vote in Extel 2019 HYPERLINK /quick

12、vote Voting opens 11th March 12th April HYPERLINK /quickvote If you value our service and insight, please vote HYPERLINK /quickvote Click here to vote Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclai

13、mer, which forms part of it.Issuer of report: HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private LimitedView HSBC Global Research at: HYPERLINK / RIThe political economy of the low-carbon transitionIn HYPERLINK /R/20/CQcRqWB Fragile planet: The politics and economics of the low-carbon transition, 1

14、0 April 2019,we seek to understand, analyse and measure the political economy of various markets as it relates to the global transition towards a lower-carbon future. We have conducted a multi-factor analysis that examines sixty-seven countries and allows us to gauge which have the policies, governa

15、nce and macroeconomic potential to decarbonise, and also the companies in those countries that could take advantage from this transition towards low carbon economy. For this, we identify five factors within three broad categories, as per Figure 1 below:Energy, Carbon & the Macro economyEconomic carb

16、on intensityEconomic diversificationPolicy & GovernanceDecarbonisation policy outlookPotential to respondClimate OpportunitiesEconomic exposure and opportunitiesCarbonintensity15%Corporate climate revenues and clean-tech relevant industries35%Fossil fuel dependence20%Potential toDecarbonisationrespo

17、ndpolicy outlook15%15%Figure 1: Key indicators for the political economy of the low carbon transitionSource: HSBCFocussing on climate opportunitiesOur fifth category for understanding country-level risk exposure to the low-carbon transition considers the green opportunity set. Here, we begin by anal

18、ysing a large data set from HSBC Global Researchs proprietary HYPERLINK /R/20/KrqWFj9 Climate Solutions Database. This database records corporate revenues against 21 headline climate themes, across areas including low-carbon energy, efficiency, and water and battery storage, among others. In our stu

19、dy, we looked at how much climate-related revenue is being earned by the companies incorporated in each of the countries and compared it with their GDPs. We also looked at the first and second derivatives for the countries absolute climate revenue exposure and relative to GDP. This enabled us to ide

20、ntify countries with relatively higher level of climate integration by their corporates compared to corporate climate integration in other markets.We also integrated the methodology and rankings from a paper written by academics at the University of Oxford Institute for New Economic Thinking1 (INET)

21、. This considers the question of how countries may re-orient their industrial structure to become more competitive in green products, and seeks to exploit the fact that industrial development tends to be path-dependent. INET draws on measures which estimate the similarity in production capabilities

22、between two products (proximity) and between a country and a product (proximity density) by considering countries conditional probability of being competitive in one product given competitiveness in another.Stock screensWe screen for companies from our HSBC Climate Solutions Database across the Clim

23、ate Leaders Group of Seven Nations (C-7), and three countries from emerging markets as identified in our main note HYPERLINK /R/20/CQcRqWB Fragile planet: The politics and economics economy of the low-carbon HYPERLINK /R/20/CQcRqWB transition, 10 April 2019.We use the following criteria to screen co

24、mpanies across these ten markets:Minimum market cap of USD500mClimate revenue exposure of at least 10% of total revenueTop ten companies with highest climate revenues across all ten markets, where availableThe C-7 nations are Germany, Sweden, Austria, France, Denmark, the United States and the Unite

25、d Kingdom. We also focus on three EM leaders, China (placed 14th overall), Korea (15th) and India (33th). Although the Czech Republic is the top ranked country within EMs in our analysis in Fragile Planet, there is currently only one Czech company which meets our screening criteria CEZ AS with clima

26、te related revenues of cUSD1bn. As a result, we focus on China and Korea, which are the two top ranked markets after the Czech Republic, and have a significant number of climate companies passing our screening criteria. We also screen for climate companies from India as the third EM nation. Although

27、, there are other EM nations placed above India, they all have fewer than two companies meeting our screening criteria,and therefore we draw out an Indian stock-screen instead.1 Economic Complexity and the Green Economy, Penny Mealy and Alexander Teytelboym, University of Oxford, 2017HSBC Climate So

28、lutions DatabaseThe HSBC Climate Solutions Database comprises global companies that are focused on addressing, combatting and developing solutions to offset and overcome the effects of climate change, thus enabling the transition towards a low carbon economy. The database includes companies with var

29、ying levels of exposure to climate-related businesses and defines investment opportunity set within the Climate Change space. We believe, companies in the HSBC Climate Solutions Database are best placed to profit from the challenges of climate change.The database utilises HSBCs proprietary framework

30、 the HSBC Climate Solutions Framework which is a toolkit to identify companies that offer climate solutions and address climate risks.The framework is designed to screen for companies that offer solutions products and services which have significant exposure to climate change solving activities. The

31、refore, the HSBC Climate Solutions Framework allows us to screen for companies that are: 1) involved in and engaged in reducing emissions; 2) involved in reacting to the effects of climate change; and 3) those focused on adapting to the impact of climate change. See Appendix (page 15) for more detai

32、ls.Process and methodologyThe HSBC Climate Solutions Database was launched in 2007 and currently it consists of over 3,000 global companies across all major regions and markets. The climate exposure of companies in the HSBC Climate Solutions Database is determined based on the proportion of revenues

33、 that these companies derive from climate change related solutions. Using our framework, revenues of companies with significant exposure to climate-change related activities are mapped across four climate sectors, 21 climate themes, over 70 climate sub-themes and almost hundred fourth level classifi

34、cation. The first two levels of classification are outlined in the HSBC Climate Solutions Framework in the Appendix on page 15.After a detailed climate revenue mapping, companies in the HSBC Climate Solutions Database are assigned with an HSBC climate factor based on their climate revenues as a perc

35、entage of total revenues (see Appendix on page 15). Companies are also assigned one climate sector and theme based on their largest exposure to those climate sectors and themes. Companies revenues are monitored on an annual basis and their climate exposure factors are revised, if necessary, dependin

36、g on changes in their relevant exposure to climate change related activities.Identifying climate opportunitiesThe database allows in identifying trends in climate integration across various climate themes as well as across regions and countries. The HSBC Climate Solutions Database therefore enables

37、screening for markets based on their highest and lowest share of climate revenue as proportion of macroeconomic variables, such as GDP. It also helps in identifying countries with relatively higher or lower rate of change in climate integration compared to other markets.Germany Germany is well place

38、d for the low-carbon transition, given a particularly large clean-tech industry and strong policy outlook. The countrys emissions are down 36% from a 1979 peak, as renewables, coal and nuclear have replaced coal in the energy mix. An equal weighted climate stock screen for Germany has outperformed t

39、he MSCI Germany index by 1.1% and underperformed the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) by 3.7% year-to-date in 2019. The three largest players in terms of absolute climate revenues in Germany are Siemens, Bayer and Thyssenkrupp - each derive over 20% of revenues from climate related businesses.Ger

40、many - Climate integration2014201520162017Climate Revenue (USDbn)101.490.5115.2115.7GDP (USDbn)3,8913,3763,4783,677Climate revenue as % GDP2.61%2.68%3.31%3.15%#companies in HSBC Climate Solutions Database82869089Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBCRelative performance of Germany stock screen110relativ

41、e price performance10090807060Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18rel MSCI ACWIrel MSCI GermanySource: MSCI, Refinitiv Datastream, HSBCGermany stock screen: Companies with highest climate revenues (in absolute terms)Company NameHSBC ClimateRevenue (USDm)*HSBC Climate Revenue %HSBCC

42、limate ThemeMarket Cap(USDm)Price (EUR)HSBCRating TPHSBC (EUR)HSBCAnalyst*Siemens AG41,99647%Industrial Efficiency97484101.8Hold114.0Michael HagmannBayer AG9,05324%Agriculture6427261.2Hold76.0Steve McGarryThyssenkrupp AG9,00820%Buildings Efficiency906112.9Hold17.0Michael HagmannBASF SE8,81013%Agricu

43、lture7154669.2Buy78.0Sriharsha PappuRWE AG5,11811%Integrated Power1537923.7Hold21.0Adam DickensE.On SE4,62411%Integrated Power2497610.1Buy10.5Adam DickensNordex SE3,311100%Wind165815.2Reduce10.0Sean McLoughlinOsram Licht AG2,92766%Buildings Efficiency356432.7Hold37.0Philip SalibaENBW Energie Baden-2

44、,83312%Nuclear984331.6n/an/an/aWuerttemb K+S AG1,57240%Agriculture375217.4n/an/an/aSource: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBCPrice as of 08 April 2019*We use HSBC Climate Solutions Framework to compute climate relevant revenue and we take a conservative approach based on the available information as publish

45、ed by the company.*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsSweden Ambitious targets, policies and a strong green opportunity set underpin Swedens high position in the C-7 Group. Swedens greenhouse gas emissions have f

46、allen over recent decades, and particularly rapidly over the past five years, as the country nears its national target to achieve a 40% reduction in emissions by 2020. An equal weighted climate stock-screen for Sweden has marginally underperformed the MSCI Sweden index by 0.3% and underperformed the

47、 MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) by 4.2% year-to-date in 2019. The three largest players in terms of absolute climate revenues in Sweden are Nibe Industrier, Holmen and JM AB - each derive over 20% of their revenues from climate related businesses.Sweden - Climate integration2014201520162017Clim

48、ate Revenue (USDbn)6.4GDP (USDbn)574498514538Climate revenue as % GDP0.76%0.73%1.10%1.19%#companies in HSBC Climate Solutions Database30394141Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBCRelative performance of Sweden stock screen190relative price performance170150130110907050Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16D

49、ec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18rel MSCI ACWIrel MSCI SwedenSource: MSCI, Refinitiv Datastream, HSBCSweden stock screen: Companies with highest climate revenues (in absolute terms)Company NameHSBC Climate Revenue (USDm)*HSBC Climate Revenue %HSBCClimate ThemeMarket Cap(USDm)Price (SEK)HSBCRatingHSBCTPH

50、SBCAnalystNibe Industrier AB1,11151%Buildings Efficiency5992124.5n/an/an/aHolmen AB71239%Forestry2868213.6n/an/an/aJM AB48525%Buildings Efficiency1283170.6n/an/an/aBeijer Ref AB39335%Buildings Efficiency2024159.4n/an/an/aInvestment AB Latour29226%Buildings Efficiency8170127.7n/an/an/aSource: Refinit

51、iv Datastream, HSBCPrice as of 08 April 2019*We use HSBC Climate Solutions Framework to compute climate relevant revenue and we take a conservative approach based on the available information as published by the company.Austria Hydro power forms a significant part of Austrias energy mix and plays an

52、 important role in its transition towards a low carbon economy. Moreover, since the early 2000s, emissions in Austria have generally trended down, which can be attributed in large part to improved energy efficiency. An equal weighted climate stock screen for Austria has underperformed both the MSCI

53、Austria index by 3.5% and the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) by 6.8% in year-to- date 2019. The three largest players in terms of absolute climate revenues in Austria are Andritz, Wienerberger and EVN, and each derive over 10% of their revenues from climate related businesses.Austria - Climate

54、integration2014201520162017Climate Revenue (USDbn)3.0GDP (USDbn)442382391417Climate revenue as % GDP0.69%0.73%0.70%0.80%#companies in HSBC Climate Solutions Database7799Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBCRelative performance of Austria stock screen150relative price performance130110907050Dec

55、-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18rel MSCI ACWIrel MSCI AustriaSource: MSCI, Refinitiv Datastream, HSBCAustria stock screen: Companies with highest climate revenues (in absolute terms)Company NameHSBC Climate Revenue (USDm)*HSBC Climate Revenue %HSBCClimate ThemeMarket Cap(USDm)Pric

56、e (EUR)HSBCRating TPHSBC (EUR)HSBCAnalyst*Andritz AG71911%Diversified Renewables469240.1Buy57.0Joerg-Andre Finke, CFAWienerberger52416%Water257219.6n/an/an/aEVN AG48620%Integrated Power270213.3n/an/an/aVerbund AG36612%Industrial Efficiency839343.8Buy50.0Adam DickensSource: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC

57、 Price as of 08 April 2019*We use HSBC Climate Solutions Framework to compute climate relevant revenue and we take a conservative approach based on the available information as published by the company.*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pur

58、suant to FINRA regulationsFrance Similar to most European nations, Frances emissions have been steadily declining. The country has, with and since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, been something of a leader on international climate diplomacy. An equal weighted climate stock screen for France has

59、 underperformed both the MSCI France index by 6.8% and the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) by 8.1% year-to-date in 2019. The three largest players in terms of absolute climate revenues in France are large utilities companies Electricite De France, Veolia Environnement and Suez Environnement, and

60、 each derive more than 50% of their revenues from climate related businesses. The majority of French climate companies in our database are from the Energy Efficiency climate sector as defined in the HSBC Climate Solutions Database.France - Climate integration2014201520162017Climate Revenue (USDbn)16