歐洲與美國的通脹：沒有更高的期望

1、Please refer to important information atthe end of this reportDEEP DIVEGLOBALMARKET ECONOMICS | MACRO QUANT & DERIVATIVES | EQUITY & DERIVATIVES | G10 INTEREST RATES | CROSS-ASSETPlease refer to important information atthe end of this reportDEEP DIVEGLOBALKEY MESSAGESSluggish KEY MESSAGESSluggish is

2、 not a European US is not much better than the in this respect, in our with the their core rates due mostly to We expect weak inflation persisting in Q3, combined with softening growth anddoubts about central banks toolkits, to keep weighing on inflation expectations.We see some upside to core infla

3、tion in Q4, thanks to higher wage growth and several temporary headwinds washing out of the data.Any pickup later this year and going into next year is likely to be limited, however, as firms pricing powers remain held back by weak growth and structural factors such as globalisation, digitalisation

4、and demographics.BNP Paribas inflation forecastsHeadline inflationCore inflation201820192020201820192020US CPIEurozone HICP1.81.22.12.31.11.3TRADE IDEAS HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?docRef=7b14e353-5832-4ae0-9541-65bbb66fa76b EU HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?docRef=7b14e35

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13、at, BNP Paribas forecasts for 2019 and 2020CONTENTSIntroduction2Outlook3factors and 6Structural factors8Measurement differences10Central bank 12Import tariffs13Labour costs and profit margins14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Authors17Legal notice18|DEEP|DEEPDIVE14/06/2019 HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_Download

14、Document?docRef=62c7be55-ac4b-4dde-a1a9-e7a349cf1d0e For more, see our HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?docRef=62c7be55-ac4b-4dde-a1a9-e7a349cf1d0e Global Outlook Q3 2019: Late-cycle carry, published 21MayINTRODUCTIONInflation markets trading at a sharp discount to central bank targetINTRO

15、DUCTIONStructural entrenchment of low inflation expectations in US and eurozone:Positive inflation risk premia were crushed in the second half of 2014 and remain close to or below zero (see top chart).In the US, 5y5y inflation forward is around 2.00% (or 30bp versus an implied inflation target of 2.

16、30% = 2% Fed PCE target + 30bp spread). In the 10 years up to mid-2014, the premium averaged +60bp and has been close to flat since then.In the eurozone, the 5y5y EUR inflation forward is at record lows (1.12%) and 80bp below an implied ECB HICP target of 1.90% (ex-tobacco). Since 2014, EUR inflatio

17、n risk premium has averaged 26bp versus +43bp in the previous 10 years.Inflation term structure flat in US but steep in eurozone: The US inflation curve is relatively flat (bottom chart). The kink around 10y is the only point where 1y forwards are around the Feds target.In contrast, EUR inflation ex

18、pectations are extremely low at the front end (below 1%) and rise towards the ECBs inflation target, although they do not reach the target within a 30-year horizon.Weak growth and stubbornly low core inflation key drivers of market pricing: A worsening in the global growth outlook has created a two-

19、fold challenge to inflation: it has increased the risk of a recession and the accompanying sharp decline in inflation which typically follows; and it has reduced firms ability to pass higher costs to consumers, thereby capping potential upside from higher wagegrowth.Similarly, the recent unresponsiv

20、eness of core inflation to the pickup in wage growth has led some market participants to conclude that the cost-push model has completely broken down, with business likely to absorb the bulk of cost increases into their profitmargins. HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?docRef=62c7be55-ac4b-4

21、dde-a1a9-e7a349cf1d0e For more, please see our HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?uid=d210aaa3-6b12-4e18-b9ad-1e52c05bfe9e&docRef=58997425-578d-4e97-b988-ee06ec740ce4&jobRef=b8ef242b-7e9f-4e91-a177-cac571d57135 Dee HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?uid=d210aaa3-6b12-4e18-b9ad-1e52c0

22、5bfe9e&docRef=58997425-578d-4e97-b988-ee06ec740ce4&jobRef=b8ef242b-7e9f-4e91-a177-cac571d57135 HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?docRef=62c7be55-ac4b-4dde-a1a9-e7a349cf1d0e For more, please see our HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?uid=d210aaa3-6b12-4e18-b9ad-1e52c05bfe9e&docRef=58

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24、uid=d210aaa3-6b12-4e18-b9ad-1e52c05bfe9e&docRef=58997425-578d-4e97-b988-ee06ec740ce4&jobRef=b8ef242b-7e9f-4e91-a177-cac571d57135 Dive: Eurozone HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?uid=d210aaa3-6b12-4e18-b9ad-1e52c05bfe9e&docRef=58997425-578d-4e97-b988-ee06ec740ce4&jobRef=b8ef242b-7e9f-4e91-a1

25、77-cac571d57135 HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?uid=d210aaa3-6b12-4e18-b9ad-1e52c05bfe9e&docRef=58997425-578d-4e97-b988-ee06ec740ce4&jobRef=b8ef242b-7e9f-4e91-a177-cac571d57135 Diagnosi HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?uid=d210aaa3-6b12-4e18-b9ad-1e52c05bfe9e&docRef=58997425-578

26、d-4e97-b988-ee06ec740ce4&jobRef=b8ef242b-7e9f-4e91-a177-cac571d57135 s HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?uid=d210aaa3-6b12-4e18-b9ad-1e52c05bfe9e&docRef=58997425-578d-4e97-b988-ee06ec740ce4&jobRef=b8ef242b-7e9f-4e91-a177-cac571d57135 Japanisation HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?u

27、id=d210aaa3-6b12-4e18-b9ad-1e52c05bfe9e&docRef=58997425-578d-4e97-b988-ee06ec740ce4&jobRef=b8ef242b-7e9f-4e91-a177-cac571d57135 ? HYPERLINK /SingletrackCMS_DownloadDocument?docRef=62c7be55-ac4b-4dde-a1a9-e7a349cf1d0e , published 30 April.Inflation expectations are below levels consistent with centra

28、l banks targets in both the eurozone and the US.Grey shaded area indicates inflation risk premium trading range which broke down in 2014Sources: Bloomberg, Macrobond, BNP ParibasGrey shaded area indicates inflation risk premium trading range which broke down in 2014The inflation term is flat in the

29、US but steep in the eurozone.Sources: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas HYPERLINK / Shahid Ladha HYPERLINK / Shahid Ladha, Head of Strategy for G10 Rates Americas Agne Stengeryte, Europe Rates Strategist | Stefan Ubovic HYPERLINK / , Senior Macro Quantitative Strategist | BNP Paribas London Branch|DEEPDIVE14/0

30、6/20192Cost-push pressures down but not outThe global growth outlook and firms ability to pass on cost increases to consumers are likely to remain the key factors driving inflation markets over the next 12 months, in our view.In our latest Global Outlook, we marked down our GDP forecasts for most re

31、gions, including advanced and emerging market economies. Our base case remains for below-trend growth and not a recession. But we think the risk of a global growth recession is high at about 25% and will continue to weigh on confidence and expectations.In addition to we think the about the impact of

32、 on inflation continue to feature prominently in market pricing. view on this topic indetailinthisnoteisthatthefromtopricesis beingheldbackbyacombinationoftemporaryandstructuralfactors.Temporary factors: Euro appreciation, price cuts a entrant have on inflation. soft healthcare miscellaneouspricesha

33、vepartlyoffsetcyclicalpressuresintheUS.factors: as and are likely to continue to pressure on addition,officialdataarelikelytoreflectonlinepricesmoregoingthinksomeinflationupsidemaybecardsassomefactorsoutofthedata.Still,expectonlyamodestin both and US core inflation as structural and global continue

34、to limit thepass-through.in the central toolkit and the impact of trade on inflation two we closely Fed is a review of its inflation targeting to be concluded in 2020. the ECB is looking its new policies such interest tiering. in the on the central bank box be help inflation in our highertariffsarel

35、ikelytonudgeupinflationincountriesthem leading to pressures as tariffed goods likely at a the medium term view the trade as toitsnegativeimpactonacrossregions.BothUSandeurozonewagegrowthratesarebacktotheirSources: Eurostat, BEA, BNP Paribasbut core inflation remains subdued in both regions due to a

36、mix of structural and temporary factors.Sources: Eurostat, BEA, Macrobond, BNP Paribas HYPERLINK / Stefan Ubovic HYPERLINK / Stefan Ubovic, Senior Macro Quantitative Strategist | BNP HYPERLINK / Andrew Schneider, US Economist | Shahid Ladha, Head HYPERLINK / of Strategy for G10 Rates Americas | BNP

37、Paribas Securities Corp.|DEEPDIVE14/06/20193 HYPERLINK / Stefan Ubovic, Senior Macro Quantitative Strategist | AgnT R A D E I D E AEUR 5y5y/15y15y swap BEI flattener. Long-dated EUR inflation swap forwards remain high and, given the weak growth outlook, the market remains sceptical regarding the lik

38、elihood of inflation rising to the ECBs 2% HICP target. We expect the European inflation curve to flatten whether breakevens rise (as the front-end has most potential to rise) or move structurally lower (as the long end could fall further).Entry: 53bp. Target: 35bp. Stop: 65bp. Current: 42.5bp. Carr

39、y: +0bp/month. HYPERLINK / e Stengeryte HYPERLINK / Stefan Ubovic, Senior Macro Quantitative Strategist | AgnT R A D E I D E AEUR 5y5y/15y15y swap BEI flattener. Long-dated EUR inflation swap forwards remain high and, given the weak growth outlook, the market remains sceptical regarding the likeliho

40、od of inflation rising to the ECBs 2% HICP target. We expect the European inflation curve to flatten whether breakevens rise (as the front-end has most potential to rise) or move structurally lower (as the long end could fall further).Entry: 53bp. Target: 35bp. Stop: 65bp. Current: 42.5bp. Carry: +0

41、bp/month. HYPERLINK / e Stengeryte, Europe Rates Strategist | BNP Paribas London Branch | DEEP DIVE14/06/20194Building cost pressures point to a mild increase in core inflation: Leading inflation indicators such as wage growth and domestic PPIs suggest pipeline price pressures have continued to buil

42、d despite the slowdown in GDP growth.Structural headwinds to inflation, however, suggest the pass-through of cost increases to prices is likely to be markedly lower than in previous cycles.That said, we do not think the cost-push model has completely broken down, and we expect a small rise in core i

43、nflation, to about 1.3% towards the end of the year.Watch out for the Easter effect: The recent volatility in eurozone core inflation was largely driven by Easter-related seasonal distortions, which weighed on March and May inflation rates and boosted April inflation.We expect the Easter effect shou

44、ld largely filter out of the data in June, with core inflation returning to its recent trend rate of around 1% over the summer.In our view, the combination of weak activity data and stubbornly low core inflation risks furtherchallenging inflation expectations in the near term.HICPxT(%HICPxT(%HICP(%C

45、ore HICP (% y/y)Jan 20Feb 20Mar 20Apr 20May 2019(f)Jun 2019(f)1.01.11.1Jul 2019(f)0.91.01.0Aug 2019(f)1.01.11.1Sep 2019(f)Oct 2019(f)Nov 2019(f)Dec 2019(f)Q1 2020(f)Q2 2020(f)Q3 2020(f)Q4 2020(f)BALANCE OF RISKS Downside risks markedly outweigh upside risks: In a typical downturn, eurozone core infl

46、ation tends to decline by about 1pp. This suggest high risk of Japanese-style deflation should the economy slip into a growth recession before core inflation breaks away from its recent trend rate of about 1%.(f) BNP Paribas forecasts; Sources: Eurostat, BNP Paribas HYPERLINK / Andrew Schneider, US

47、EconomistFlat in the near term: Core inflation has seen more idiosyncratic instances of weakness, from methodological changes affecting apparel prices to decelerations in transportation services and healthcare prices. At the same time, we have seen signs of strength, particularly in shelter prices,

48、the largest component of CPI.Given relatively solid prints in the late spring and early summer last year, base effects should help keep year-on-year core inflation effectively flat over the coming months, even as we see some firming in the month-on-month rate. HYPERLINK / Andrew Schneider, US Econom

49、istFlat in the near term: Core inflation has seen more idiosyncratic instances of weakness, from methodological changes affecting apparel prices to decelerations in transportation services and healthcare prices. At the same time, we have seen signs of strength, particularly in shelter prices, the la

50、rgest component of CPI.Given relatively solid prints in the late spring and early summer last year, base effects should help keep year-on-year core inflation effectively flat over the coming months, even as we see some firming in the month-on-month rate.Moderate rise in core inflation as Phillips cu

51、rve is alive, if subdued: While we expect core goods inflation to remain generally muted on account of structural competition changes and lagged effects of a strong USD, we see core services prices continuing to pick up amid a robust labour market and rising cost pressures.As we move deeper into Q3,

52、 base effects should become favourable as well, with the impact of higher import tariffs also kicking in. Still, structural headwinds remain, in our view, and we consequently see amoresubduedpass-throughofcostpressurestopriceincreasesthaninthepast.CPI NSA(% y/y)CPI NSA(% y/y)Core CPI (% y/y)Core PCE

53、 (% y/y)Jan 20Feb 20Mar 20191.92.01.6Apr 20192.02.11.6May 20191.82.01.6Jun 2019(f)1.82.01.7Jul 2019(f)1.62.01.7Aug 2019(f)Sep 2019(f)Oct 2019(f)Nov 2019(f)Dec 2019(f)Q1 2020(f)Q2 2020(f)Q3 2020(f)Q4 2020(f)BALANCE OF RISKS Risks still lie to the downside: There remain cyclical reasons why inflation

54、should be higher an unemployment rate still well below most estimates of NAIRU and rising wage growth but we think structural factors could continue to pull inflation lower, while further big data methodological changes and a slowing economy could amplify such disinflationary forces.(f) BNP Paribas

55、forecasts; Sources: Eurostat, BNP ParibasApart from slowing growth, the cyclical backdrop is generally supportiveTheoutputgapisaboutclosedinEurope,theUSandwiththenarrowingofslackledbythelabourmarket.estimatessuggestthattheand USunemploymentratearebelowtheevidenceandmeasuresoflabourmarketslackpointto

56、thesameconclusion.Sources: OECD, Macrobond, BNP ParibasSources: Eurostat, BEA, OECD, Macrobond, BNP ParibasA tighter labour market has pushed up wage growth, which has increased across a range of measures in both eurozone and the US. Structural factors and the recent weakening in the global growth o

57、utlook, however, suggest the pass-through of wage growth to price increases is likely to be weaker than in previous cycles.In the US,earnings (AHE) and costindices (ECI) all show a pickup in wage growth.In the eurozone, the recent pickup in wage growth was largely led bynegotiated wages, suggesting

58、it is likely to be relatively sticky. HYPERLINK / HYPERLINK / Sources: BEA, BLS, Macrobond, BNP Paribas HYPERLINK / Stefan Ubovic, Senior Macro Quantitative Strategist | BNPSources: Eurostat, ECB, Macrobond, BNP ParibasUptick in cyclical inflation offset by soft non-cyclical prices: Despite wages li

59、kely weaker pass-through to prices, we do not think the cost-push model has completely broken down. We continue to expect a small rise in inflation on the back of the lagged response to the previous improvement in the economic cycle. EurozoneUSThe components of core inflation most sensitive to the c

60、ycle are responding to the recent pickup in wage growth.The recent slowdown in core PCE was driven by non-cyclical prices,while cyclical inflation has remained stable.Sources: Eurostat, Macrobond, BNPParibasSources: Federal Reserve, Macrobond, BNP ParibasPast EUR appreciation has meant domestic PPIs