12全球金融危機(jī)后經(jīng)濟(jì)體金融開放與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長再考察

1、征文選題范圍：亞洲區(qū)域經(jīng)：86-592-：生征文選題范圍：亞洲區(qū)域經(jīng)：86-592-：生摘要1997 2008 AreconsiderationofEastAsianlftergloballernational economic and business , AreconsiderationofEastAsianlftergloballernational economic and business , Department Mengyun ernational economic and business , Department l openness and What kind of had

2、 l development in East economies growth? This e has particularly brought to forefront of theoretic 1997 Asian l crisis and 2008 global l crisis. This thesis makes use of nine Asian economies time series o do empirical test on the economic growth and fluctuation effects of finanlopennessandfinan et a

3、l. (2009). De facto finanl openness has al development, using the m itiveeffectoneconomicgrowusedbyKose ndstabilitythe developed economies in East Asian, while it isnt found he economies in 推手11997”沿線國家2。對這（一）而于資本賬戶開放。Bekaert Harvey(1995) 推手11997”沿線國家2。對這（一）而于資本賬戶開放。Bekaert Harvey(1995) 、 lopenness）

4、 年報(bào)”AnnualReportonExchangeArrangements Restrictions AREAER) 1 .1993.EastAsianMiracle:EconomicndPublicPolicy.World參見世PolicyResearchReports,NewYork：OxfordUniversity22013 9 月和10 絲1 （二） (1 （二） (顯示OCED Razin&Rose（1994）認(rèn)為金融開放和國家產(chǎn)出、消費(fèi)、投資之間波動相關(guān)性并不顯著。Easterly 等（2001）分析得出金融全球化與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動之(2000) 和Cottarelli,Gianni

5、ni(1AREAER 中的資本Klein KleinOliveiPotchamanawong2007) 按資本流入限制和資KAOPEN基rvey(1995); 以金融開放的時(shí)間及鍵事件來衡量insky賬戶交Feldstein,Horioka(198 用一國國內(nèi)投資及其Edwards,Khan(1985);Har 半開放經(jīng)濟(jì)下的利率決 que ,Montiel(1990);Hel 定模型 Kraay(1998);Lane ,Ahearne,Griever,Warnoc 基于IFCI指數(shù)和IFCG k(2000);Edison,Warnock 指數(shù)設(shè)計(jì)了OR 指標(biāo)來 Edison(2002);Ko

6、se,Pras 用國 產(chǎn)和負(fù)債存和占GDP 金融開放與人均收入增長率的關(guān)系，發(fā)現(xiàn)金融開放對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有顯著影響。Klein Oliver (2000) 認(rèn)為金融開放通過促進(jìn)國內(nèi)金融發(fā)展、提高金融深度來促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。Bekaert ,Harvey ( Lweis(2000) i) 金融開放與人均收入增長率的關(guān)系，發(fā)現(xiàn)金融開放對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有顯著影響。Klein Oliver (2000) 認(rèn)為金融開放通過促進(jìn)國內(nèi)金融發(fā)展、提高金融深度來促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。Bekaert ,Harvey ( Lweis(2000) i) 納。首先是受全要素生產(chǎn)率的影響，PrasadRogoffWei Kose2004) 經(jīng)濟(jì)

7、發(fā)展。MinskyandReinhart1999) 應(yīng)。KosePrasadtaylor2009)（三）Krugman(1994) 。，（2011）Aghion 等 , 2008了為有徹為有徹、是有效的能夠?qū)Γㄋ模?（一）, ( yit itit Xit FOit 分別表示國家或地區(qū)和時(shí)間的特定效應(yīng)， it 是誤差項(xiàng)。在探究金融開放與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長時(shí)yitGDP （二）、19702013 lOpenness）、。 （二）、19702013 lOpenness）、。 指標(biāo)作為金融開放程度3?！笆聦?shí)上”金融開放度（1970-2013）采用一國外部資產(chǎn)和負(fù)GDPPhilipLane 世GDP的比來衡量，數(shù)

8、據(jù)來源于貨幣政策用通貨膨脹率表示，本文采用 GDP 平減指數(shù)衡量的通貨膨脹；財(cái)政政策用政GDP 的比表示，數(shù)據(jù)來源于WDI；GDP。由于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的周期性，每期初始經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對本期經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展具有一定 GDP GDP，數(shù)據(jù)來源于（IMF）；制度質(zhì)量。世界 提供綜合的世界治理指標(biāo)、 GDP的比），數(shù)據(jù)來源于WDI（一） 3參。defactodejuredefactodejuredefactodejure金融開放-度財(cái)政政策波通貨膨脹波匯率波動-defactodejuredefactodejuredefactodejure金融開放-度財(cái)政政策波通貨膨脹波匯率波動-貿(mào)易開制度質(zhì)-國民收R-observati

9、 注：括號里是RobustStdErr*，*，*分別表示10%，5%，1%的顯著性水平 Granger 即的3 東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)體金融開放度與經(jīng)濟(jì)波動面板GrangerProb defacto55dejure22注5%的顯著性水（二）GDP 增長率呈反向變動關(guān)系。而在加入了金融開放度與金4 東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)體金融開放度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長defactodejure-財(cái)政政-初始人均注5%的顯著性水（二）GDP 增長率呈反向變動關(guān)系。而在加入了金融開放度與金4 東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)體金融開放度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長defactodejure-財(cái)政政-初始人均貨幣政-貿(mào)易開制度質(zhì)-R-注：括號里是RobustStdErr. *，*，*分別表示10

10、%，5%，1%的顯著性水平5 GrangerGranger 雙向因果關(guān)1Granger雙向因果關(guān)系。Granger 雙向因果關(guān)系。最后，在滯1 Granger 原因，資本形成率不是金融Granger Granger5 東亞九經(jīng)濟(jì)體金融開放度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、金融深化、資本形成率面板Granger。Prob de注：括號里是RobustStdErr. *，*，*分別表示10%，5%，1%的顯著性水平5 GrangerGranger 雙向因果關(guān)1Granger雙向因果關(guān)系。Granger 雙向因果關(guān)系。最后，在滯1 Granger 原因，資本形成率不是金融Granger Granger5 東亞九經(jīng)濟(jì)體金

11、融開放度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、金融深化、資本形成率面板Granger。Prob defacto22dejure33defacto11dejure22defacto22dejure116defactodejuredefactodejure-財(cái)政政初始人-貨幣政-6defactodejuredefactodejure-財(cái)政政初始人-貨幣政-金融深-貿(mào)易開制度質(zhì)-入-0.00292*-R-括號里是RobustStd. 0.714 16.738，目前也只有7 8注：5%的顯著性水平（iters(10000trim(0.01)grid(100) 1 820087 8注：5%的顯著性水平（iters(10000tr

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