財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的社會層面文獻(xiàn)翻譯

1、原文：The social dimensions of financial riskAs money has come to play a central role in modems ociety the risk of losing money, financial risk, is a major concern for individuals and societies. The loss of a job would not only have an impact on an individuals source of income, but could threaten the i

2、ndividuals entire livelihood and break up the family. Similarly, the loss of a pension could mean hunger, illness and misery for an old-aged pensioner. The loss of savings through the collapse of a bank could have a devastating blow on individuals.For corporations, financial risk canaffect the value

3、 of their business investments and financial assets.At asocietal level, the bankruptcy of a currency, as happened recently to the Mexican peso, could have a dramatic impact on the entire economy.The aim of this paper is to analyse present day knowledge about financial risk and evaluate the extent to

4、 which it provides a comprehensive understanding of risk. The findings suggest that because of the obsession with objectivity and mathematical calculation, risk analysis in finance leaves a lot to be desired.Risk analysis in finance theoryTo summarise the present understanding of risk in finance, th

5、e only way to do so reasonably is to list various topics under which risk is covered. These are: individual preferences and attitudes to risk: risk averse, risk neutral, risk seeker portfolio theory: risk as variance of return, risk reduction through diversification, beta risk and the capital asset

6、pricing model option volatility and the risk of derivative securities measuring risk using probability theory: state-preference theory risk management: hedging strategies, bond duration and volatility, portfolio insurancedifferent types of asset risk eg interest rate risk, market risk, credit/defaul

7、t risk.The above list of topics demonstrates the partial and disjointed understanding of risk in finance. One of the central concerns of finance is the valuation of securities, and risk is only really examined and explored to the extent that it influences the valuation. However, examined from a soci

8、etal perspective, the importance attached to valuation is directly tied to the belief in efficient markets as a means of resolving social problems. This precept is the subject of debate in the social sciences. The assumption that if efficient and competitive markets can be ensured then there is no n

9、eed to worry about risk seems far-fetched, especially when systemic risks are examined.On individual attitudes to risk, a description is given of different types of risk positions adopted: risk-averse, risk neutral and risk seeker.Individuals are risk averse if they intend to match risk with reward

10、and would only take on more risk if there is an expectation of a higher return. Risk neutral individuals are indifferent towards risk, and risk seekers are those who love to take on risk, even if the returns may not be commensurately high. The analysis then goes on to assume that most individuals ar

11、e risk averse, and this is the basis for the subsequent measurement of risk. No empirical proof is provided of this assumption, nor is there any questioning of the link between risk and financial reward, there is an implicit assumption that risks are acceptable provided there are high potential rewa

12、rds.In terms of risk measurement, the breakthrough in finance was made by Markowitz when he suggested that risk can be measured by standard deviation, and assuming asset returns are normally distributed, this opened up a whole series of techniques of risk measurement using standard statistical and m

13、athematical methods. The entire distribution of returns of an asset could now be described by two statistics, mean and standard deviation. The question asto whether standard deviation is an adequate or complete measure of risk, or whether the assumption of normal distribution ofasset returns is empi

14、ricallyvalid, was somehow ignored or seen to be too trivial. Similarly, the focus on distribution of returns detached the issue of individual or societal preferences and attitudes towards risk from the measurement of risk.Another approach used to evaluate risk is through the application of the mathe

15、matics of probability theory. Probabilities of alternative states of nature and state-contingent payoffs for individual securities can be combined to calculate values when outcomes are uncertain. The major breakthrough for the valuation of derivative securities came from the Black-Scholes option pri

16、cing model. Hull explains that this model was a breakthrough because the outcome was independent of individual risk preferences. The key to the formula was the assumption of risk-neutrality. Hull argues that although the assumption was necessary for the derivation of the formula, the outcome is inde

17、pendent of risk preferences, and that is why the Black-Scholes formula is such a major breakthrough.The emphasis on risk management and the sub-categorisation of risksinterest rate risk, market risk, credit risk are all attempts at grappling with the reality of specific risks as they affect firms an

18、d individuals. For example, for bankers, the evaluation of credit risk is paramount if they are to make profitable lending decisions. Techniques for evaluating these have evolved in finance which provides useful inroads into the assessment of default. Thus, quite sophisticated methods of risk analys

19、is have evolved in areas where there is commercial benefit from accurate analysis. However, such approaches do not always enhance the scientific knowledge base of the fundamental components of financial risk and how they interrelate.Dimensions of financial riskThe Oxford Dictionary defines risk as a

20、 chance of hazard, or of bad consequences, loss . this broad definition is similar to the working definition of financial risk in this paper, ie the risk or chance of losingmoney. The point could be elaborated by asking financial risk suffered by whom individuals, communities or societies? In financ

21、e, risk is usually understood as variance or volatility and is seen to have both a downside and an upside there is a risk-return trade off. However, the way it has been defined thus far focuses on the downside element of risk, which is the risk of loss, damage, etc. Thisaspect of risk and its import

22、ance is very realwhenconsidering individuals and societies 。Apart from the pure financial dimensions or risk, there are ethical and psychological components which are central to unravelling financial risk. For example, if monetary savings are seen as a means of improving personal security, then a lo

23、ss of savings can lead to significant personal insecurity. This can have damaging psychological consequences. Similarly, if a job is seen as a way of keeping oneself occupied and feeling useful, then loss of job is not just a financial blow, but also a devastating psychological and emotional blow. S

24、imilar analyses can be extended to communities and societies. Whenc ommunities suffer a bank or currency collapse, which could be influenced by elements beyond their control, then recovery from it ， can be very costly, both financially and psychologically. Beck argues for the explicit consideration

25、of these dimensions of risk, because they are as real in their impact as the pure financial dimensions, perhaps even more so. And just because they cannot easily be measured does not mean that they should be ignored. He writes:In the risk society, additional skills become vitally necessary. Here, th

26、e ability to anticipate and endure dangers, to deal with them biographically and politically acquires importance. In place of fears of losing status, class consciousness and orientation to upward mobility, which we have more or less learned to handle, other central questions appear. How do we handle

27、 ascribed outcomes of danger and the fears and insecurities which reside in them? How can we cope with the fear, if we cannot overcome the causes of the fear? How can wel ive on the volcano of civilisation without deliberately forgetting about it, but also without suffocating on the fears and not ju

28、st on the vapoursthat the volcano exudes? Financial risk can thus be analysed at two different levels individual and societal. At the individual level, the primary concerns would be the personal welfare、ethical and emotional/psychological impact offinancial risks. At a societal level, financial risk

29、 can lead to inflation and unemployment。 For example, a large-scale banking collapse could lead to a widespread loss of savings, affecting the middle and upper classes more than the lower classes,Individual levelThe principal financial assets of most individuals comprise their personal wealth and so

30、urces of income. Thus for individuals, the primary dimensions of financial risk would include their savings, investments, and their job/occupational income. Insurance companies in the western world often price a range of personal financial risks and sell products to enable individuals to manage or r

31、educe these risks. For example,insurance policies to protectan individualshomem ortgage payments in the event of loss of job or an accidentare currently available. Similarly, life insurance policies are designed to protect families from financial risk especially when a principal bread-winner dies. T

32、hus, the commercial sector has utilised finance and statistical tools to be able to price these risks commercially and spread the risks so that individuals can hedge these risks.However, this is also where finance stops, but the reality and impact of the risk do not disappear. For example, financial

33、 compensation for the loss of a job can be helpful, but does not give the individual a new job. To this extent, the hedge or insurance fails completely. The personal and societal costs of unemployment are huge and well documented. The fear of a job loss can also influence individual behaviour. Indiv

34、iduals differ in their perceptions or risks, and in their responses to them. When finance theory ignores or trivialises it, the result can be incomplete and misleading.Societal levelAt a societal level, critical questions relating to the social impact of financial risk are left unasked and unresolve

35、d. For example, the rise of financial markets as a medium for transmission of savings and credit is applauded as a great boon in finance. However, the history and experiment of financial markets and innovation has been short and rather bumpy. Fashionable markets, such as in Latin America, boom and b

36、ust in short periods of time. Similarly, derivatives are enhancing market efficiency on the one hand, and destroying financial institutions on the other. Does financial innovation actually help the transmission of risks, or does it create a greater risk society, with an increasing dependence on mark

37、ets for its public health and welfare? Financial innovation certainly benefits the experts in finance, but whether or not it benefits others is still an open question.Financial markets pressurise companies to produce positive financial results in the short term, and at the same time force them away

38、from thinking about longer-term benefits for their stakeholders. It is financial performance which is paramount, all else is secondary. Similarly, the proliferation of insurance products might help individuals to manage some of their risks but may also spread a culture of irresponsibility in society

39、.For example, there may be less concern about personal health if an individual is insured for medical expenses. Financial products which encourage individuals to borrow in different sorts of ways allow them to postpone their obligations to future periods and generations. When a country like the USA

40、is in huge debt, with a trillion dollar budget deficit, it takes on significant financial risk with potentially damaging consequences for its citizens. The idea that a whole community of people can borrow resources and leave repayment to future generations sounds absurd, but is easily facilitated by

41、 financial markets.Risk consciousnessFor individuals and societies to understand, recognise and managef inancial risks, they need to be conscious of the nature and extent of the risk they face.One no longer ascends merely from personal experience to general judgements, but rather general knowledge d

42、evoid of personal experience becomes the central determinant of personal experience. . . Ultimately, no-one can know about risks, so long as to know means to have consciously experienced. Thus when insurance companies evaluate personal health risks, and draw up elaborate contacts of what is covered,

43、 they rely on health experts who operate businesses for commercial gain. The risk analysis is not directed toward individual benefit or health improvement but toward more abstract concerns with the financial profitability of a series of risks. When an insured person falls ill with an illness not cov

44、ered in the contract, this would be the first time the person experiences the reality of the risk and its impact could be devastating.Source: Atul K. Shah, 1997. “The social dimensions of financial risk ”. Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance,譯文：財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的社會層面 在現(xiàn)代社會中，由于資金已經(jīng)到了發(fā)揮核心作用，貨幣損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

45、， 是個(gè)人和社會主要關(guān)心的問題。就像失去工作，不僅會影響一個(gè)人的收入來源，還可 能會威脅到一個(gè)人的生活甚至破壞到整個(gè)家庭。同樣，失去退休金可能會影響一個(gè)退 休老人的溫飽，疾病和痛苦。當(dāng)銀行倒閉使儲蓄損失，對儲戶來說是個(gè)毀滅性的打擊。 對于企業(yè)，財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能會影響他們的業(yè)務(wù)投資和財(cái)務(wù)資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值。在一個(gè)社會層面， 貨幣的破產(chǎn)，像最近發(fā)生在墨西哥比索，就可能對整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生巨大影響。本文的主要目的是分析有關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的知識和現(xiàn)今的評價(jià)它在何種程度上提供了 一個(gè)全面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)認(rèn)識。調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，由于對客觀性和數(shù)學(xué)計(jì)算，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析在金融界 還有很多不足之處。財(cái)務(wù)理論中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析： 總結(jié)當(dāng)前的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的認(rèn)識， 唯一

46、的辦法就是列出各種各樣的話題下的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)覆蓋。它們是：個(gè)人喜好和對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)態(tài)度：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中性，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)尋找者 投資組合理論：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方差的回報(bào)率，通過多樣化減少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，貝塔風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和資本資 產(chǎn)定價(jià)模型期權(quán)波動率和衍生證券風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利用概率理論衡量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：國有偏好理論理論風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理：避險(xiǎn)策略，債券的期限和波動性，投資組合保險(xiǎn) 不同類型的資產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)例如：利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、信用 / 違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 上面所列的主題展示了在財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中部分和無法理解的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。其中一個(gè)重要的工 作內(nèi)容是對證券的評價(jià)，和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題只有在某種程度上的審查和探索，它才影響估值 然而，從社會角度進(jìn)行審查，重視估值最重要的是在有效的市場把直接掛鉤的信念作 為解決社會

47、問題的一種手段。這規(guī)則在社會科學(xué)一直是被考慮的。假設(shè)如果效率和競 爭力，能夠確保那么就沒有必要擔(dān)心風(fēng)險(xiǎn)似乎太牽強(qiáng)了，尤其是當(dāng)系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行審 查時(shí)。對個(gè)人態(tài)度上的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，采用介紹不同類型的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)立場：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中性和風(fēng) 險(xiǎn)尋找者。個(gè)人是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避的，如果他們打算其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與報(bào)酬相匹配，如果有一個(gè)較高 的期望回報(bào)，只會承擔(dān)更多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。而那些對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中性個(gè)人和那些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)愛好者，即使 回報(bào)可能會不分別高。接著分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡的大多數(shù)人，這是進(jìn)行后續(xù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)量的基礎(chǔ) 沒有經(jīng)驗(yàn)證明這種假設(shè)，也沒有任何經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)酬和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之間的聯(lián)系和質(zhì)疑，但有一個(gè)隱 含的假設(shè)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以接受的條件是有高回報(bào)潛力。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)測量中，其財(cái)務(wù)技術(shù)是由馬科

48、維茨突破的，他建議，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)偏差 來測量，并假設(shè)資產(chǎn)收益率呈正態(tài)分布的，該建議開辟了一個(gè)完整的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)量技術(shù)并 使用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的統(tǒng)計(jì)和數(shù)學(xué)方法。對資產(chǎn)收益的全部收益，現(xiàn)在可以由兩個(gè)統(tǒng)計(jì)描述：均 值和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差。作為對問題是否是一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的充分或完整的措施，或是否對資 產(chǎn)收益的正態(tài)分布假設(shè)是有效的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，在某種程度上忽視或認(rèn)為是太微不足道的。同 樣，收益的分配重點(diǎn)超脫個(gè)人或社會的偏好和對從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)量中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)態(tài)度的問題。用于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的另一種方法是通過數(shù)學(xué)概率理論中的應(yīng)用。自然狀態(tài)的概率和依 存狀態(tài)的選擇為個(gè)別證券所造成的后果計(jì)算結(jié)果相結(jié)合的價(jià)值是不確定的。衍生證券 估值的重大突破來自布萊克斯科爾斯的期權(quán)

49、定價(jià)模型。赫爾解釋說，這個(gè)模型是一 個(gè)突破，因?yàn)檫@個(gè)結(jié)果是與個(gè)體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好無關(guān)的，其公式的關(guān)鍵是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中立的假設(shè)。 赫爾認(rèn)為，雖然這個(gè)假設(shè)是由必要的計(jì)算公式推導(dǎo)的，其推導(dǎo)結(jié)果是獨(dú)立于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的偏 好，這就是為什么布萊克斯科爾斯公式是這樣一個(gè)重大的突破。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的重點(diǎn)和利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都試圖應(yīng)對現(xiàn)實(shí)中的特定 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因?yàn)樗鼈兊囊磺袝绊懫髽I(yè)和個(gè)人。例如，對于銀行，信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評估是至關(guān) 重要的，如果他們要取得盈利的貸款決定。評估這些因素的技術(shù)已經(jīng)延伸到能夠?qū)` 約評估提供有益侵蝕的財(cái)務(wù)領(lǐng)域，因此，相對復(fù)雜的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法也已經(jīng)延伸到能夠 從準(zhǔn)確分析中獲得商業(yè)利益的區(qū)域中了。然而，這種方法并不總是提

50、高財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以 及它們?nèi)绾蜗嗷リP(guān)聯(lián)的基本組成部分的科學(xué)知識基礎(chǔ)。財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)尺寸牛津字典定義風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為“危險(xiǎn)的機(jī)會，或不良后果，虧損 . ”這種廣泛的定義類似 于財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的實(shí)際定義，即本文的“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或虧損的機(jī)會”。這一點(diǎn)可以通過詢問受風(fēng) 險(xiǎn)的個(gè)人、社區(qū)或社會來闡釋？在財(cái)務(wù)中，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)通常被理解為方差或波動，被認(rèn)為既 有不利的一面又有一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回報(bào)取舍。不過，它迄今已定義的方面?zhèn)戎赜陲L(fēng)險(xiǎn)的負(fù)面 因素，如該風(fēng)險(xiǎn)丟失，損壞等。這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，其重要方面是非常真實(shí)的，因?yàn)樗紤]個(gè) 人和社會。對解決財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極為重要的組件除了單純的財(cái)務(wù)問題或風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，還有道德和心理。 例如，如果貨幣儲蓄作為提高人身安全的一種手段，那么損失的儲蓄可能會導(dǎo)致重大 人身的不安，這可能有破壞性的心理后果。同樣，如果一份工作作為保持自己忙碌和 感覺自己有用的一種方式，那么失去工作不僅是一個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)上的沖擊，而且在心理和情 緒上也有破壞性的打擊。類似的分析可以擴(kuò)展到社區(qū)和社會。當(dāng)社會受到銀行或貨幣 崩潰，這可能會受到他們無法控制的因素的影響，然后從這個(gè)事件中恢復(fù)，在財(cái)政和 心理上的代價(jià)是非常昂貴的。貝克認(rèn)為在這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面要作明確的考慮，因?yàn)樗?/p>