第五章-管理策之二決策偏向-課件

SmartLeaders,FoolishChoices:AvoidingDecisionMakingTraps

Lecturer:姬定中DepartmentOfBusiness,NITSmartLeaders,FoolishChoices1AfterthislectureyouwillbeabletoknowFramingAvailabilityRepresentativenessAnchoring&AdjustmentOverconfidenceAfterthislectureyouwillbe2

FramingTendencytomakedifferentdecisionsdependingonhowaproblemispresented邊框效應(yīng)（framingeffect）是指由于問題表述的語境不同，對(duì)同一個(gè)問題的兩種邏輯意義上相似的描述最終導(dǎo)致不同的決策判斷的效應(yīng)

FramingTendencytomakedif34FramingEffect甲店現(xiàn)金100元刷卡加5%乙店刷卡105元現(xiàn)金扣5%4FramingEffect甲店4CashorCredit??$1.30/gal5centdiscountforcash...$1.25/gal5centchargeforcredit...Discountseemsnegligible,peopleusecreditcard.Surchargeisoutrageous…peoplepaycash.gainslossesCashorCredit??$1.30/gal$1.255Example:framingYougotoShanghaianddecidetogotoaShanghaiGrandTheatreforaplay.Youbuyaticketfor$100inthemorning,butwhenyougotothetheaterthatevening,youdiscoveryouhavelosttheticket.Youhaveplentyofmoneytobuyanotherone:doyou?YougotoShanghaianddecidetogotoaShanghaiGrandTheatreforaplayandticketscost$100.Yougotothetheaterthateveningandwhenyoustarttopayforyourticket,youdiscoveryouhavelost$100.Youhaveplentyofmoneytobuyaticket:doyou?Example:framingYougotoSha6有過看電影丟了票的經(jīng)歷嗎？想象一下，你已經(jīng)決定去看一場(chǎng)戲劇，每張票的價(jià)格是30元。當(dāng)你進(jìn)入戲院買票時(shí)，你發(fā)現(xiàn)不知什么時(shí)候你丟了30元?，F(xiàn)在你還愿意花30元錢去買票嗎？（愿意）（不愿意）想象一下，你已經(jīng)決定去看一場(chǎng)戲劇，每張票的價(jià)格是30元。當(dāng)你進(jìn)入戲院驗(yàn)票時(shí)，你發(fā)現(xiàn)你的票丟了?，F(xiàn)在你愿意花30元錢重買一張票嗎？

（愿意）

（不愿意）

有過看電影丟了票的經(jīng)歷嗎？想象一下，你已經(jīng)決定去看一場(chǎng)戲劇，7結(jié)果選擇背景丟了錢丟票愿意85（80%）64（60%）不愿意21（20%）42（40%）結(jié)果背景丟了錢丟票愿意85（80%）64（60%）不愿意218結(jié)果的解釋買兩張票時(shí)，我們很容易感到是花了60元看一場(chǎng)電影；而掉了30元和買一張票時(shí)，掉的30元我們并不算做是看電影花的（另外單獨(dú)做賬了）。我們只不過是將丟失的現(xiàn)金歸結(jié)為倒霉，僅僅使我們感到?jīng)]有原來那么富有，而不會(huì)直接與看電影相關(guān)聯(lián)。結(jié)果的解釋買兩張票時(shí)，我們很容易感到是花了60元看一場(chǎng)電影；9Howyouframeit

DeMartinoandhiscolleaguesscannedthebrainsof20volunteers.Atthesametime,theresearcherstoldtheparticipantstheyreceivedasumofmoneyandthenrepeatedlyposedthemoneoftwochoices:Keepachunkofmoneyorgamble,orloseachunkofmoneyorgamble.Asexpected,thosetoldtheycouldkeepmoneyorgambleweregenerallyleerierofrisk.Ontheotherhand,volunteersinformedtheycouldlosemoneyorgambleoftenweremorerisk-seeking.Howyouframeit

DeMartinoan10FramingEffectsReferstohowdecision-makersviewaproblemfromawin-lossperspective.Thewayaproblemisframedofteninfluenceschoicesinirrationalways…Supposeyou’vebeengiven$1000andmustchoosebetween:A.Receive$500moreimmediatelyB.Flipacoinandreceive$1000moreifheadsoccursor$0moreiftailsoccursFramingEffectsReferstohowd11FramingEffects(cont)Nowsupposeyou’vebeengiven$2000andmustchoosebetween:A.Giveback$500immediatelyB.Flipacoinandgiveback$0ifheadsoccursorgiveback$1000iftailsoccursFramingEffects(cont)Nowsupp12Initialstate$1,500Heads(50%)Tails(50%)$2,000$1,000AlternativeAAlternativeB(Flipcoin)PayoffsInitialstate$1,500Heads(50%)13說明我們……面對(duì)獲利時(shí)，是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者；面對(duì)損失時(shí)，是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者。贏了一點(diǎn)就跑，輸了許多卻還不愿認(rèn)輸。繼續(xù)思考：那人又為什么買6合彩啊？說明我們……面對(duì)獲利時(shí)，是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者；贏了一點(diǎn)就跑，輸了許多14實(shí)驗(yàn)研究表明丟掉10元錢所帶來的不愉快感受比撿到10元所帶來的愉悅感受要強(qiáng)烈得多。實(shí)驗(yàn)研究表明丟掉10元錢所帶來的不愉快感受比撿到10元所帶來15“損失10元錢”和“獲益10元錢”

所帶來的感受是不一樣的別人的好處是我們難以感受到的，別人的不好卻是讓我們深感痛苦的?！皳p失10元錢”和“獲益10元錢”

所帶來的感受是不一樣的別16“損失10元錢”和“獲益10元錢”

所帶來的感受是不一樣的所以，孔夫子提醒我們，滴水之恩，當(dāng)涌泉相報(bào)“損失10元錢”和“獲益10元錢”

所帶來的感受是不一樣的17但……丟掉10元錢所帶來的不愉快感受比撿到10元所帶來的愉悅感受要強(qiáng)烈得多。一定如此嗎？但……丟掉10元錢所帶來的不愉快感受比撿到10元所帶來的愉悅18呵呵……上面介紹的研究表明，我們是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者還是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者，與許多因素有關(guān)：是面對(duì)盈利，還是虧損；預(yù)期的是收益，還是虧損；剛剛是賭贏了，還是賭輸了；是男的，還是女的；……這一點(diǎn)還與偏執(zhí)與否及程度有關(guān)呵呵……上面介紹的研究表明，我們是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者還是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者，19面對(duì)收益真是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者嗎？是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者還是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者，還決定于概率的大?。韩@利的概率太小時(shí)，人們也更多地成為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者。所以我們會(huì)買6合彩?。∶鎸?duì)收益真是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者嗎？是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者還是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者，還決定20所以……我們是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者還是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者，與許多因素有關(guān)：是面對(duì)盈利，還是虧損；收益或虧損是否是預(yù)期的；剛剛是賭贏了，還是賭輸了；是男的，還是女的；收益或損失的概率是大還是??；……傳統(tǒng)的設(shè)想人是理性的，沒有系統(tǒng)的厭惡。可研究表明，這一切是變化的，而且是在不同層次上變化的。所以……我們是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者還是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者，與許多因素有關(guān)：傳統(tǒng)21我們是穩(wěn)定不變的嗎？我們有時(shí)喜歡賭，有時(shí)又不喜歡賭。有時(shí)比較謹(jǐn)慎，有時(shí)又比較冒險(xiǎn)，愿意“賭大的”。

我們是穩(wěn)定不變的嗎？我們有時(shí)喜歡賭，有時(shí)又不喜歡賭。22如何來評(píng)價(jià)本周虧3000元？你可能想到的是：哎，倒霉，虧了3000元！??！嘿，上周還賺了10000元；本周只虧了3000元。為什么感受不一樣??！如何來評(píng)價(jià)本周虧3000元？你可能想到的是：為什么感受不一樣23Framing(fromPlous,1993)WordingissuesinquestionnairesDoyougetheadachesfrequently?(2.2/wk)Doyougetheadachesoccasionally?(0.7/wk)Suggeststhatthewayweframeproblemsorissuescanhavesignificantimpactontheinformationwegatherandonthedecisionstaken(Hart)Framing(fromPlous,1993)Word24Framing(fromPlous,1993)Overcomingframingeffects:Evaluatethequalityofyourassumptionsandexistingframes(appropriate?realistic?howdotheydirectyourattention?)Seekotheropinions(e.g.peoplewhocontinuallydisagreewithyou…)Temporarilyadoptotherpeople’s(petitors,employees,topmanagement)viewpoint,toseehowtheymightbeframingthesituationFraming(fromPlous,1993)Over25可得性啟發(fā)請(qǐng)問：K在英文單詞里，是更常出現(xiàn)在第一個(gè)字母位置，還是第三個(gè)字母位置？第三個(gè)字母位置是K的詞是起首字母為K的詞的三倍可得性啟發(fā)請(qǐng)問：第三個(gè)字母位置是K的詞是起首字母為K的詞的三26AvailabilityHeuristicWearebiasedbyinformation:thatiseasiertorecallvivid,well-publicizedorrecentmoresalient(ourattentionisdrawntoit)Allofthismakesitmoreavailabletous所謂“可得性啟發(fā)(availabilityheuristic)”，是說最易被想起的事件通常被認(rèn)為最普遍。相應(yīng)地人們對(duì)他們不易記憶的事物則認(rèn)為是不常發(fā)生的。AvailabilityHeuristicWeareb27Availability

Tendencytojudgethelikelihoodofanoccurrenceonthebasisoftheextenttowhichotherlikeinstancescaneasilyberecalled.Ex.Aretheremorewordsbeginningwith“R,”orhaving“R”asthirdletter?Mostwillsaybeginning,simplyb/citiseasiertothinkofexamplesforthispossibilityActuallymorewordswithan“R”asthirdletterAvailabilityTendencytojud28VividnessVividness:howconcreteorimaginablesomethingis,orhowemotionallystimulating(Hart&Bing)Examplefromadrunk-drivingtrialsimulation“Onhiswayoutthedoor,Smithstaggeredagainstaservingtable,knockingabowltothefloor.”“Onhiswayoutthedoor,Smithstaggeredagainstaservingtable,knockingabowlofsalsadiptothefloorandsplatteringtomatosalsaonthewhitecarpet.”18hourslater,significantlymoresubjectsgiventhesecondscenariojudgedSmithtobeguilty(rememberedvividinformationmoreeasily,basedjudgementonit)(Plaus,1993)VividnessVividness:howconcre29AvailabilityinuseEaseofrecallisoftenagoodcluetolikelihoodofoccurrence…butnotalways.Bewareofinformationthatcomestooeasilytomind(becauseitisvivid,salient,recent…)–youmightbeoverlookingsomethingmoresubtlebutcrucial!AvailabilityinuseEaseofrec30問題某女，31歲，單身，坦誠、非常聰明。專業(yè)哲學(xué)，在學(xué)生時(shí)代積極關(guān)心歧視問題和社會(huì)公平問題，同時(shí)參加了反核示威。

請(qǐng)回答，哪一個(gè)可能性更大：A:“該女是銀行出納員”；B:“該女是銀行出納員和女權(quán)運(yùn)動(dòng)者”。問題某女，31歲，單身，坦誠、非常聰明。專業(yè)哲學(xué)，在學(xué)生時(shí)代31我們知道，男女比例大致相等

那么，請(qǐng)估計(jì)在有6個(gè)孩子的家庭中，男(B)女(G)兒童出生順序?yàn)镚BGBBG和BGBBBB的比例，哪個(gè)更高？（B代表男孩，G代表女孩）我們知道，男女比例大致相等

那么，請(qǐng)估計(jì)在有6個(gè)孩子的家庭中32典型（代表）性啟發(fā)某女，31歲，單身，坦誠、非常聰明。專業(yè)哲學(xué)，在學(xué)生時(shí)代積極關(guān)心歧視問題和社會(huì)公平問題，同時(shí)參加了反核示威。

請(qǐng)快速回答，哪一個(gè)可能性更大：A:“該女是銀行出納員”；B:“該女是銀行出納員和女權(quán)運(yùn)動(dòng)者”。為什么那么多人選擇了B呢？典型（代表）性啟發(fā)某女，31歲，單身，坦誠、非常聰明。專業(yè)哲33我們知道，男女比例大致相等

那么，請(qǐng)估計(jì)在有6個(gè)孩子的家庭中，男(B)女(G)兒童出生順序?yàn)镚BGBBG和BGBBBB（B代表男孩，G代表女孩）的比例，哪個(gè)高？結(jié)果大多數(shù)被試估計(jì)前者遠(yuǎn)高于后者。為什么會(huì)這樣呢？要知道從機(jī)會(huì)來說，兩者的概率應(yīng)是相等的啊。就因?yàn)镚BGBBG更典型也更有代表性：更能代表整個(gè)人口中的比例，而且看起來更隨機(jī)。我們知道，男女比例大致相等

那么，請(qǐng)估計(jì)在有6個(gè)孩子的家庭中34RepresentativenessRepresentativeness: Tendencytobeoverlyinfluencedbystereotypesinmakingjudgmentsaboutthelikelihoodofoccurrences.example:Robertwearsglasses,speaksquietly,andreadalot.IsitmorelikelythatRobertisalibrarianorafarmer?Mostwillpicklibrarian,b/c(A)Robert’scharacteristics,aremoreconsistentwithalibrarian(B)RepresentativenessRepresentati35ExamplesYouflipacoin6times.Giventhatflippingafaircoinisrandom(a50-50chanceoraheadortail).Whichofthefollowingoutcomesismostlikelyorprobable?A. HHTHTTB. HHHTTTBothareequallylikelytheprobabilityissameoneachtoss.ExamplesYouflipacoin6time36Representativenessweusethisshortcutasawaytojudgethedegreetowhichanindividualobject,personoreventisrepresentativeofaspecificcategory,group,etc.TheuseofthisheuristictypicallymeansthatweunderusethebaserateinformationthatmaybeavailableRepresentativenessweuset37RepresentativenessSubjectsweretoldthatpersonalitytestshadbeendoneonagroupconsistingof30engineersand70lawyers.Theywerethengiven5shortdescriptionsandtoldthatthesehadbeenchosenatrandomfromthe100.Hereisonesuchdescription:RepresentativenessSubjectswer38IsJackaLawyeroranEngineer?Jackisa45year-oldman.Heismarriedwiththreechildren.Heisgenerallyconservative,carefulandambitious.Heshowslittleinterestinpoliticalandsocialissuesandspendshissparetimeonhishobbies.Thesubjectswerethenaskedthefollowingquestion:Inyouropinion,whatistheprobabilitythatthepersondescribedisanengineer,onascaleof0to100?IsJackaLawyeroranEnginee39Example2–theuseofstereotypesThereare100peopleinaroom,70ofthemarelawyers,30areengineers.Billisrandomlyselectedfromthisroom.Whatistheprobabilityheisalawyer?

Dickisa30-year-oldman.Heismarriedwithnochildren.Amanofhighabilityandhighmotivationhepromisestobeverysuccessful.Heiswelllikedbyhiscolleagues.Jackis45-years-old,andmarriedwith3children.Hetendstobeconservative,careful,andambitious.Heshowslittleinterestinpoliticalandsocialinterests,andenjoyscarpentry,sailing,andmathematicalpuzzles.Example2–theuseofstereoty40Representativeness:InsensitivitytoprobabilitybaseratesK&Tfoundthatpeople’sratingsofwhetherJackwasanengineerwerevirtuallyunaffectedbythebaserateinformation(70%Lawyersor30%Engineers)Themore“engineer-specific”informationwasgiven(e.g.helikescarpentry,puzzles),thehighertheprobabilityratingsthatJackwasanengineer.Ingeneral,themoredetailpeoplearegiven,themoretheyignorethebase-ratesRepresentativeness:Insensitivi41IgnoringBaseRatesWhydomorehotelfiresstartonthe1sttenfloorsthanthesecondtenfloorsFrankisameekandquietmanwhoseonlyhobbyisplayingchess.Hewasnearthetopofhiscollegeclassandmajoredinphilosophy.Ishealibrarianorabusinessman?You’vewatchedacointosscomeupheads5timesinarow.Ifyoubet$100onthenexttoss,wouldyouchooseheadsortails?IgnoringBaseRatesWhydomore42Representativenessheuristic:ConclusionSimilarity(analogy)&probabilitycanberelated,sorepresentativenesscanbeagoodheuristic…mostofthetime.But,likeavailability,itleadstosystematic,predictablebiasesforcertaintasks.Weareflawedprobabilityestimators,insensitivetobaseratesandsamplesizesandeasilyinfluencedbydetailedscenarios;wearepoorestimatorsofoutcomesThisaffectsourchoiceofalternativesindecisionmakingButknowingthiscanhelpusavoidsomeofthepitfallsRepresentativenessheuristic:43請(qǐng)大致估計(jì)……請(qǐng)把答案寫在相應(yīng)問題后面的（）內(nèi)。請(qǐng)大致估計(jì)……44請(qǐng)大致估計(jì)有多少非洲國家是聯(lián)合國成員。這里要告訴你的是，肯定在1個(gè)以上。

請(qǐng)大致估計(jì)有多少非洲國家是聯(lián)合國成員。45請(qǐng)大致估算1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8請(qǐng)大致估算1x2x3x4x5x6x7x846請(qǐng)大致估計(jì)有多少非洲國家是聯(lián)合國成員。這里要告訴你的是，肯定在100個(gè)以內(nèi)。

請(qǐng)大致估計(jì)有多少非洲國家是聯(lián)合國成員。47請(qǐng)大致估算8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1請(qǐng)大致估算8x7x6x5x4x3x2x148錨定與調(diào)整Anchoring&Adjustment為什么在這兩個(gè)小測(cè)驗(yàn)中，人們的估計(jì)會(huì)因表述的稍許差別而極大地不同呢？是1與100（或1、2、3等前幾個(gè)數(shù))影響了人們的估計(jì)：人們的估計(jì)被錨定在最初的這樣一個(gè)數(shù)附近。錨定與調(diào)整Anchoring&Adjustment為什49Anchoring&Adjustment

(TverskyandKahneman,1974)Tendencytobeinfluencedbyaninitialfigure,evenwhentheinformationislargelyirrelevant

WejudgesizeorquantitybasedonaninitialanchorvalueplusanadjustmentStage1:Personstartswithinitialideaofanswer(“anchor”)“Ballpark”(general)estimate.Anchormaybesuggestedbyperception,experienceorbysomethingintheenvironment.Stage2;Personadjustsawayfrominitialanchortoarriveatfinaljudgement.Thissuggeststhatyoucanbiasaperson’sestimateifyouprovidetheinitialanchorAnchoring&Adjustment

(Tvers50Anchoring&Adjustment

(TverskyandKahneman,1974)SomeeverydayexamplesEstimatingsalaryforanewemployee:Baseitonpastemployee’ssalaryandadjustfromthere(regardlessofchangestothejobornewrequirements,etc.)Carsalesmanattemptingtoanchoryoutothe“windscreenprice”oncarGoodbargainersknowthisAnchoring&Adjustment

(Tvers5152行為決策理論DanielKahnemanAmosTversky

NobelPrize2019(1937-2019)52行為決策理論52Anchoring&AdjustmentSunkCostEffects公司給了一張價(jià)值300元的明星演唱會(huì)門票，碰上大暴雨，去不去？價(jià)值300元的票是自己買的，碰上大暴雨，去不去？Anchoring&AdjustmentSunkCos5354沉沒成本新產(chǎn)品研發(fā)計(jì)劃，據(jù)悉競爭對(duì)手已經(jīng)開發(fā)出來，如果做下去，很大幾率要損失500萬。但有很小的幾率可以獲利2500萬。做或不做？？新產(chǎn)品研發(fā)計(jì)劃，已經(jīng)投資500萬，再丟50萬就可上市。據(jù)悉競爭對(duì)手已經(jīng)開發(fā)出來，如果做下去，很大幾率要損失500萬。但有很小的幾率可以獲利2500萬。做或不做？？54沉沒成本新產(chǎn)品研發(fā)計(jì)劃，據(jù)悉競爭對(duì)手已經(jīng)開發(fā)出來，如果做54AnotheraspectofanchoringConfirmationbias:Payingmoreattentiontoinformationthatconfirmsone’sownbeliefs,regardlessoftheresearch(selectiveperception)(Hart&Bing)Ourinitialbeliefsdonoteasilyshift(areanchored),despitepotentiallydisconfirmingevidenceExamples:Studiesoftheeffectsofsmoking,caffeine,globalwarming,HRT,etc.Whateverstudysupportsourinitialpositionweviewas“moreconvincing”,“betterdesigned”,“definitive”...AnotheraspectofanchoringCon55Anchoring&Adjustment

(TverskyandKahneman,1974)Inordertocounteractthisbias:Beawareoftheproblemofanchoring–chooseadifferentanchorandseetheeffectonthesolution/decisione.g.avoidstickingtooclosetopreviousyear’snumberswhenmakingcompanyforecastsProvidearange,notasingle-pointvalueWorkwithmultipleanchorsapproachkeyestimatesfromseveralstartingpoints(e.g.best-case/worst-casescenarios)AvoidconsideringonlyincrementaldecisionsGetgoodfeedback

remainopentonewinformationandconstantlymodifypredictionswithfeedbackfromenvironment.Anchoring&Adjustment

(Tvers56過度自信Overconfidence許多心理學(xué)研究顯示人們傾向于對(duì)他們的判斷過分自信。尤其是專業(yè)人士通常夸大自己的知識(shí)和能力。結(jié)果表現(xiàn)為：當(dāng)他們“希望”某種結(jié)果出現(xiàn)時(shí)（主觀上）將這個(gè)結(jié)果出現(xiàn)的概率夸大為必然事件；而當(dāng)他們“不希望”某種結(jié)果出現(xiàn)時(shí)（主觀上）將這個(gè)結(jié)果夸大為不可能事件。而且設(shè)定置信區(qū)間非常小（通俗講就是夸大自己預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確性）。

過度自信Overconfidence許多心理學(xué)研究顯示人們傾57OverconfidenceTendencytobemorecertainofjudgmentsregardingthelikelihoodofafutureeventthanone’sactualpredictiveaccuracywarrantsOverconfidenceTendencytobem58“過度自信”

還在以下情況下尤其突出所要完成的工作十分困難；在預(yù)測(cè)能力有限的條件下進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)；執(zhí)行缺乏快速和清晰的反饋的任務(wù)的時(shí)候；是男性的時(shí)候（男性似乎比女性更容易犯“過度自信”的毛病）。反過來對(duì)于一些較容易的任務(wù)或工作人們卻顯得有點(diǎn)自信不足?！斑^度自信”

還在以下情況下尤其突出所要完成的工59過度自信可表現(xiàn)為：

“事后諸葛亮”和“偏執(zhí)偏差”“事后諸葛亮”心理，指人們總會(huì)在事后調(diào)整自己的認(rèn)識(shí)為自己在事前的判斷和決策辯護(hù)?！捌珗?zhí)偏差”指投資者執(zhí)著于不成功的投資策略。這使這類投資者在市場(chǎng)上的投資表現(xiàn)相對(duì)較差。

過度自信可表現(xiàn)為：

“事后諸葛亮”和“偏執(zhí)偏差”“事后諸葛60偏執(zhí)偏差(ConfirmatoryBias)Anotheraspectofanchoring指行為人不僅不依據(jù)新信息對(duì)他初始信念進(jìn)行修正，反而將新信息錯(cuò)誤理解為對(duì)他的原有信念的進(jìn)一步證明。

偏執(zhí)偏差(ConfirmatoryBias)Anothe61Payingmoreattentiontoinformationthatconfirmsone’sownbeliefs,regardlessoftheresearch(selectiveperception)(Hart&Bing)Ourinitialbeliefsdonoteasilyshift(areanchored),despitepotentiallydisconfirmingevidenceExamples:Studiesoftheeffectsofsmoking,caffeine,globalwarming,HRT,etc.Whateverstudysupportsourinitialpositionweviewas“moreconvincing”,“betterdesigned”,“definitive”...ConfirmationbiasPayingmoreattentiontoinfor62Hopeyoumorecreativeandconsiderate!Hopeyoumorecreativeandcon63SmartLeaders,FoolishChoices:AvoidingDecisionMakingTraps

Lecturer:姬定中DepartmentOfBusiness,NITSmartLeaders,FoolishChoices64AfterthislectureyouwillbeabletoknowFramingAvailabilityRepresentativenessAnchoring&AdjustmentOverconfidenceAfterthislectureyouwillbe65

FramingTendencytomakedifferentdecisionsdependingonhowaproblemispresented邊框效應(yīng)（framingeffect）是指由于問題表述的語境不同，對(duì)同一個(gè)問題的兩種邏輯意義上相似的描述最終導(dǎo)致不同的決策判斷的效應(yīng)

FramingTendencytomakedif6667FramingEffect甲店現(xiàn)金100元刷卡加5%乙店刷卡105元現(xiàn)金扣5%4FramingEffect甲店67CashorCredit??$1.30/gal5centdiscountforcash...$1.25/gal5centchargeforcredit...Discountseemsnegligible,peopleusecreditcard.Surchargeisoutrageous…peoplepaycash.gainslossesCashorCredit??$1.30/gal$1.2568Example:framingYougotoShanghaianddecidetogotoaShanghaiGrandTheatreforaplay.Youbuyaticketfor$100inthemorning,butwhenyougotothetheaterthatevening,youdiscoveryouhavelosttheticket.Youhaveplentyofmoneytobuyanotherone:doyou?YougotoShanghaianddecidetogotoaShanghaiGrandTheatreforaplayandticketscost$100.Yougotothetheaterthateveningandwhenyoustarttopayforyourticket,youdiscoveryouhavelost$100.Youhaveplentyofmoneytobuyaticket:doyou?Example:framingYougotoSha69有過看電影丟了票的經(jīng)歷嗎？想象一下，你已經(jīng)決定去看一場(chǎng)戲劇，每張票的價(jià)格是30元。當(dāng)你進(jìn)入戲院買票時(shí)，你發(fā)現(xiàn)不知什么時(shí)候你丟了30元。現(xiàn)在你還愿意花30元錢去買票嗎？（愿意）（不愿意）想象一下，你已經(jīng)決定去看一場(chǎng)戲劇，每張票的價(jià)格是30元。當(dāng)你進(jìn)入戲院驗(yàn)票時(shí)，你發(fā)現(xiàn)你的票丟了?，F(xiàn)在你愿意花30元錢重買一張票嗎？

（愿意）

（不愿意）

有過看電影丟了票的經(jīng)歷嗎？想象一下，你已經(jīng)決定去看一場(chǎng)戲劇，70結(jié)果選擇背景丟了錢丟票愿意85（80%）64（60%）不愿意21（20%）42（40%）結(jié)果背景丟了錢丟票愿意85（80%）64（60%）不愿意2171結(jié)果的解釋買兩張票時(shí)，我們很容易感到是花了60元看一場(chǎng)電影；而掉了30元和買一張票時(shí)，掉的30元我們并不算做是看電影花的（另外單獨(dú)做賬了）。我們只不過是將丟失的現(xiàn)金歸結(jié)為倒霉，僅僅使我們感到?jīng)]有原來那么富有，而不會(huì)直接與看電影相關(guān)聯(lián)。結(jié)果的解釋買兩張票時(shí)，我們很容易感到是花了60元看一場(chǎng)電影；72Howyouframeit

DeMartinoandhiscolleaguesscannedthebrainsof20volunteers.Atthesametime,theresearcherstoldtheparticipantstheyreceivedasumofmoneyandthenrepeatedlyposedthemoneoftwochoices:Keepachunkofmoneyorgamble,orloseachunkofmoneyorgamble.Asexpected,thosetoldtheycouldkeepmoneyorgambleweregenerallyleerierofrisk.Ontheotherhand,volunteersinformedtheycouldlosemoneyorgambleoftenweremorerisk-seeking.Howyouframeit

DeMartinoan73FramingEffectsReferstohowdecision-makersviewaproblemfromawin-lossperspective.Thewayaproblemisframedofteninfluenceschoicesinirrationalways…Supposeyou’vebeengiven$1000andmustchoosebetween:A.Receive$500moreimmediatelyB.Flipacoinandreceive$1000moreifheadsoccursor$0moreiftailsoccursFramingEffectsReferstohowd74FramingEffects(cont)Nowsupposeyou’vebeengiven$2000andmustchoosebetween:A.Giveback$500immediatelyB.Flipacoinandgiveback$0ifheadsoccursorgiveback$1000iftailsoccursFramingEffects(cont)Nowsupp75Initialstate$1,500Heads(50%)Tails(50%)$2,000$1,000AlternativeAAlternativeB(Flipcoin)PayoffsInitialstate$1,500Heads(50%)76說明我們……面對(duì)獲利時(shí)，是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者；面對(duì)損失時(shí)，是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者。贏了一點(diǎn)就跑，輸了許多卻還不愿認(rèn)輸。繼續(xù)思考：那人又為什么買6合彩啊？說明我們……面對(duì)獲利時(shí)，是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者；贏了一點(diǎn)就跑，輸了許多77實(shí)驗(yàn)研究表明丟掉10元錢所帶來的不愉快感受比撿到10元所帶來的愉悅感受要強(qiáng)烈得多。實(shí)驗(yàn)研究表明丟掉10元錢所帶來的不愉快感受比撿到10元所帶來78“損失10元錢”和“獲益10元錢”

所帶來的感受是不一樣的別人的好處是我們難以感受到的，別人的不好卻是讓我們深感痛苦的?！皳p失10元錢”和“獲益10元錢”

所帶來的感受是不一樣的別79“損失10元錢”和“獲益10元錢”

所帶來的感受是不一樣的所以，孔夫子提醒我們，滴水之恩，當(dāng)涌泉相報(bào)“損失10元錢”和“獲益10元錢”

所帶來的感受是不一樣的80但……丟掉10元錢所帶來的不愉快感受比撿到10元所帶來的愉悅感受要強(qiáng)烈得多。一定如此嗎？但……丟掉10元錢所帶來的不愉快感受比撿到10元所帶來的愉悅81呵呵……上面介紹的研究表明，我們是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者還是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者，與許多因素有關(guān)：是面對(duì)盈利，還是虧損；預(yù)期的是收益，還是虧損；剛剛是賭贏了，還是賭輸了；是男的，還是女的；……這一點(diǎn)還與偏執(zhí)與否及程度有關(guān)呵呵……上面介紹的研究表明，我們是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者還是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者，82面對(duì)收益真是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者嗎？是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者還是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者，還決定于概率的大?。韩@利的概率太小時(shí)，人們也更多地成為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者。所以我們會(huì)買6合彩啊！面對(duì)收益真是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者嗎？是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者還是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者，還決定83所以……我們是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者還是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者，與許多因素有關(guān)：是面對(duì)盈利，還是虧損；收益或虧損是否是預(yù)期的；剛剛是賭贏了，還是賭輸了；是男的，還是女的；收益或損失的概率是大還是小；……傳統(tǒng)的設(shè)想人是理性的，沒有系統(tǒng)的厭惡?？裳芯勘砻?，這一切是變化的，而且是在不同層次上變化的。所以……我們是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求者還是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡者，與許多因素有關(guān)：傳統(tǒng)84我們是穩(wěn)定不變的嗎？我們有時(shí)喜歡賭，有時(shí)又不喜歡賭。有時(shí)比較謹(jǐn)慎，有時(shí)又比較冒險(xiǎn)，愿意“賭大的”。

我們是穩(wěn)定不變的嗎？我們有時(shí)喜歡賭，有時(shí)又不喜歡賭。85如何來評(píng)價(jià)本周虧3000元？你可能想到的是：哎，倒霉，虧了3000元?。。『?，上周還賺了10000元；本周只虧了3000元。為什么感受不一樣??！如何來評(píng)價(jià)本周虧3000元？你可能想到的是：為什么感受不一樣86Framing(fromPlous,1993)WordingissuesinquestionnairesDoyougetheadachesfrequently?(2.2/wk)Doyougetheadachesoccasionally?(0.7/wk)Suggeststhatthewayweframeproblemsorissuescanhavesignificantimpactontheinformationwegatherandonthedecisionstaken(Hart)Framing(fromPlous,1993)Word87Framing(fromPlous,1993)Overcomingframingeffects:Evaluatethequalityofyourassumptionsandexistingframes(appropriate?realistic?howdotheydirectyourattention?)Seekotheropinions(e.g.peoplewhocontinuallydisagreewithyou…)Temporarilyadoptotherpeople’s(petitors,employees,topmanagement)viewpoint,toseehowtheymightbeframingthesituationFraming(fromPlous,1993)Over88可得性啟發(fā)請(qǐng)問：K在英文單詞里，是更常出現(xiàn)在第一個(gè)字母位置，還是第三個(gè)字母位置？第三個(gè)字母位置是K的詞是起首字母為K的詞的三倍可得性啟發(fā)請(qǐng)問：第三個(gè)字母位置是K的詞是起首字母為K的詞的三89AvailabilityHeuristicWearebiasedbyinformation:thatiseasiertorecallvivid,well-publicizedorrecentmoresalient(ourattentionisdrawntoit)Allofthismakesitmoreavailabletous所謂“可得性啟發(fā)(availabilityheuristic)”，是說最易被想起的事件通常被認(rèn)為最普遍。相應(yīng)地人們對(duì)他們不易記憶的事物則認(rèn)為是不常發(fā)生的。AvailabilityHeuristicWeareb90Availability

Tendencytojudgethelikelihoodofanoccurrenceonthebasisoftheextenttowhichotherlikeinstancescaneasilyberecalled.Ex.Aretheremorewordsbeginningwith“R,”orhaving“R”asthirdletter?Mostwillsaybeginning,simplyb/citiseasiertothinkofexamplesforthispossibilityActuallymorewordswithan“R”asthirdletterAvailabilityTendencytojud91VividnessVividness:howconcreteorimaginablesomethingis,orhowemotionallystimulating(Hart&Bing)Examplefromadrunk-drivingtrialsimulation“Onhiswayoutthedoor,Smithstaggeredagainstaservingtable,knockingabowltothefloor.”“Onhiswayoutthedoor,Smithstaggeredagainstaservingtable,knockingabowlofsalsadiptothefloorandsplatteringtomatosalsaonthewhitecarpet.”18hourslater,significantlymoresubjectsgiventhesecondscenariojudgedSmithtobeguilty(rememberedvividinformationmoreeasily,basedjudgementonit)(Plaus,1993)VividnessVividness:howconcre92AvailabilityinuseEaseofrecallisoftenagoodcluetolikelihoodofoccurrence…butnotalways.Bewareofinformationthatcomestooeasilytomind(becauseitisvivid,salient,recent…)–youmightbeoverlookingsomethingmoresubtlebutcrucial!AvailabilityinuseEaseofrec93問題某女，31歲，單身，坦誠、非常聰明。專業(yè)哲學(xué)，在學(xué)生時(shí)代積極關(guān)心歧視問題和社會(huì)公平問題，同時(shí)參加了反核示威。

請(qǐng)回答，哪一個(gè)可能性更大：A:“該女是銀行出納員”；B:“該女是銀行出納員和女權(quán)運(yùn)動(dòng)者”。問題某女，31歲，單身，坦誠、非常聰明。專業(yè)哲學(xué)，在學(xué)生時(shí)代94我們知道，男女比例大致相等

那么，請(qǐng)估計(jì)在有6個(gè)孩子的家庭中，男(B)女(G)兒童出生順序?yàn)镚BGBBG和BGBBBB的比例，哪個(gè)更高？（B代表男孩，G代表女孩）我們知道，男女比例大致相等

那么，請(qǐng)估計(jì)在有6個(gè)孩子的家庭中95典型（代表）性啟發(fā)某女，31歲，單身，坦誠、非常聰明。專業(yè)哲學(xué)，在學(xué)生時(shí)代積極關(guān)心歧視問題和社會(huì)公平問題，同時(shí)參加了反核示威。

請(qǐng)快速回答，哪一個(gè)可能性更大：A:“該女是銀行出納員”；B:“該女是銀行出納員和女權(quán)運(yùn)動(dòng)者”。為什么那么多人選擇了B呢？典型（代表）性啟發(fā)某女，31歲，單身，坦誠、非常聰明。專業(yè)哲96我們知道，男女比例大致相等

那么，請(qǐng)估計(jì)在有6個(gè)孩子的家庭中，男(B)女(G)兒童出生順序?yàn)镚BGBBG和BGBBBB（B代表男孩，G代表女孩）的比例，哪個(gè)高？結(jié)果大多數(shù)被試估計(jì)前者遠(yuǎn)高于后者。為什么會(huì)這樣呢？要知道從機(jī)會(huì)來說，兩者的概率應(yīng)是相等的啊。就因?yàn)镚BGBBG更典型也更有代表性：更能代表整個(gè)人口中的比例，而且看起來更隨機(jī)。我們知道，男女比例大致相等

那么，請(qǐng)估計(jì)在有6個(gè)孩子的家庭中97RepresentativenessRepresentativeness: Tendencytobeoverlyinfluencedbystereotypesinmakingjudgmentsaboutthelikelihoodofoccurrences.example:Robertwearsglasses,speaksquietly,andreadalot.IsitmorelikelythatRobertisalibrarianorafarmer?Mostwillpicklibrarian,b/c(A)Robert’scharacteristics,aremoreconsistentwithalibrarian(B)RepresentativenessRepresentati98ExamplesYouflipacoin6times.Giventhatflippingafaircoinisrandom(a50-50chanceoraheadortail).Whichofthefollowingoutcomesismostlikelyorprobable?A. HHTHTTB. HHHTTTBothareequallylikelytheprobabilityissameoneachtoss.ExamplesYouflipacoin6time99Representativenessweusethisshortcutasawaytojudgethedegreetowhichanindividualobject,personoreventisrepresentativeofaspecificcategory,group,etc.TheuseofthisheuristictypicallymeansthatweunderusethebaserateinformationthatmaybeavailableRepresentativenessweuset100RepresentativenessSubjectsweretoldthatpersonalitytestshadbeendoneonagroupconsistingof30engineersand70lawyers.Theywerethengiven5shortdescriptionsandtoldthatthesehadbeenchosenatrandomfromthe100.Hereisonesuchdescription:RepresentativenessSubjectswer101IsJackaLawyeroranEngineer?Jackisa45year-oldman.Heismarriedwiththreechildren.Heisgenerallyconservative,carefulandambitious.Heshowslittleinterestinpoliticalandsocialissuesandspendshissparetimeonhishobbies.Thesubjectswerethenaskedthefollowingquestion:Inyouropinion,whatistheprobabilitythatthepersondescribedisanengineer,onascaleof0to100?IsJackaLawyeroranEnginee102Example2–theuseofstereotypesThereare100peopleinaroom,70ofthemarelawyers,30areengineers.Billisrandomlyselectedfromthisroom.Whatistheprobabilityheisalawyer?

Dickisa30-year-oldman.Heismarriedwithnochildren.Amanofhighabilityandhighmotivationhepromisestobeverysuccessful.Heiswelllikedbyhiscolleagues.Jackis45-years-old,andmarriedwith3children.Hetendstobeconservative,careful,andambitious.Heshowslittleinterestinpoliticalandsocialinterests,andenjoyscarpentry,sailing,andmathematicalpuzzles.Example2–theuseofstereoty103Representativeness:InsensitivitytoprobabilitybaseratesK&Tfoundthatpeople’sratingsofwhetherJackwasanengineerwerevirtuallyunaffectedbythebaserateinformation(70%Lawyersor30%Engineers)Themore“engineer-specific”informationwasgiven(e.g.helikescarpentry,puzzles),thehighertheprobabilityratingsthatJackwasanengineer.Ingeneral,themoredetailpeoplearegiven,themoretheyignorethebase-ratesRepresentativeness:Insensitivi104IgnoringBaseRatesWhydomorehotelfiresstartonthe1sttenfloorsthanthesecondtenfloorsFrankisameekandquietmanwhoseonlyhobbyisplayingchess.Hewasnearthetopofhiscollegeclassandmajoredinphilosophy.Ishealibrarianorabusinessman?You’vewatchedacointosscomeupheads5timesinarow.Ifyoubet$100onthenexttoss,wouldyouchooseheadsortails?IgnoringBaseRatesWhydomore105Representativenessheuristic:ConclusionSimilarity(analogy)&probabilitycanberelated,sorepresentativenesscanbeagoodheuristic…mostofthetime.But,likeavailability,itleadstosystematic,predictablebiasesforcertaintasks.Weareflawedprobabilityestimators,insensitivetobaseratesandsamplesizesandeasilyinfluencedbydetailedscenarios;wearepoorestimatorsofoutcomesThisaffectsourchoiceofalternativesindecisionmakingButknowingthiscanhelpusavoidsomeofthepitfallsRepres