某咨詢?nèi)蚱囆袠I(yè)報告及咨詢市場展望

CIMITServicesMarketOutlook:

GlobalAutomotiveIndustryBusinessIntelligenceGroupAugust2003ContentsExecutiveSummaryAutomotiveIndustryBusinessChallengesGlobalRegional:US,Europe,Asia-Pacific,RestofWorldAutomotiveITSpendingTrendsGlobal&RegionalITSpendForecastsAutomotiveIndustryITTrendsAutomotiveITServicesIndustry:CompetitiveProfilesAutomotiveITServicesMarket:BearingPointAlliancesSourcesandContactExecutiveSummary Automakersarecurrentlyfacedwithslowersales,overcapacityanddeclinesinprofitability.Big3arelosingmarketsharetoJapaneseautomakers.Toyota,HondaandNissanincreasedtheirU.S.salesandmarketshareinthefirsthalfof2003,whiletheBigThreemanufacturers(GM,Ford,DaimlerChrysler)sawtheirsalesdeclinedespitespendingheavilyonincentives.Currentlytheglobalautomotiveindustryhastoomuchcapacity(roughly30%)andassalesfall,theproblemcontinues.Carpriceshavebeenfallingmakingalreadythinmarginsevenmorepressured.Theglobalautomotiveindustryisfacedwithmorecompetition,greaterpricetransparency,risingcustomerexpectationsandqualityimprovements,makingthepressureevengreateronpriceandprofitability.

Chinapresentsthebestopportunityforautomakersduetoincreasedgovernmentincentivesandcooperation,cheaperlabor,andproximitytoalargepopulationofpotentialconsumers.Chinacontinuestomakeprogresstowardsamarketeconomywhichhasledtoglobalbusinesses,likeautomotivecompanies,tryingtorampupinordertotapintothecountry'slargemarketplaceof1.3Bconsumers.AyearafterentryintotheWTO,in2003,China’sautomotiveindustryproduced3.25Mmotorvehicleunits(38%growthcomparedtotheyearbefore). ITIssues:Industryinsurvivalmode,pressuringspending;OpportunitiesforCRMMostmanufacturingverticals,includingAutomotive,havebeenoperatingin“survivalmode”,spendingverylittleoncapitalandoperationalexpenses;ITspendinghassufferedasaresult.TheNorthAmericanmanufacturingmarketconstitutesapproximately45%ofthetotalworldmanufacturingITspend.ExecutiveSummaryCurrentlyintheautomotiveindustrythereislesssignificanceplacedontheroleofITinsupportingbusinessstrategies,especiallyincomparisontoindustrieslikeFinancialServicesorHealthcarepayerindustries.ThisisalargedeterminantofITbudget.Inordertounderstandtheirnear-termsalesvolume,optionmixandpricesensitivity,automakershavetostartunderstandingtheircustomersbetterthroughthemanysignalstheyseefromtheirconsumers’interactions.MuchofthiscanbeaccomplishedthroughCRMinitiatives.Whiledealerincentiveshavebeenusedbymostofthemajorautomakers,especiallyintheUS,companiesleveragingtheirexistingCRMmightbeabletogetmoreforless.Thedatagatheredfromincentiveprogramsflowingbacktomanufacturersanddealerscanallowfollow-upcampaignsthatbridgethegapbetweensalesandmarketing.ERPvendorsareturningtheirfocustodeliveringextendedapplicationsinareasofSCM,CRMandPLMtocompensateforthelossofrevenuefromlarge-scaleprojects.CompetitorsandAlliancesDeloitteConsultinghasajointinitiativewithSAPtosupporttheautomotiveindustryinthedeploymentofthemySAP

Automotivesolutiononaworldwidebasis.Aspartofthisinitiative,DCandSAParedevelopingmethodsforcustomer-specificanalysisonfeasibility,cost-benefit,andROI.IBMencouragestheirengineerstorotateinandoutofthefield,spendingtimesolvingreal-lifeproblemswhilenotabandoningtheirinsideresearch.IBMhascreatedan"innovationservices"groupwithinitsresearchunitdedicatedtoworkingonautomotivecustomerproblems,makingthemcapableoftakingtheirresearchandapplyittobusinessissues.IntheEuropeanautomotiveindustry,SAPiscurrentlyfocusingoncrossfunctionalprocesses,packagingtheirSCM,PLMandCRMallinone,usingdifferentmodules,approachingitfromtheperspectiveofthebusinessprocessesthatcrosstheseareas.GlobalAutomotiveIndustry:

BusinessChallengesGlobalAutomotiveIndustryisonaGradualSlide Theworld’sautomotiveindustryhasbeenonagradualdownwardslideoverthepastyear,acceleratedtosomedegreebythelikelihoodofamajorbankruptcyandfurtherrestructuringoftheindustry.Inhibitorsincludeweak(regional)consumerconfidence,highunemploymentanduncertainglobalequitymarkets,allofwhichhaveledtolowersales.InEurope,thefirstfivemonthsof2003sawsalesdropby4%whilenewregistrationsforMayfellthelowestinfiveyears.TheUSmarketisforecasttoshrink4%thisyear.Currentlytheglobalautomotiveindustryhastoomuchcapacity(roughly30%)andassalesfall,theproblemcontinues.Muchoftheover-capacityisduetoeachindividualcompanyexpectingtogrowfasterthanitsrivals.Andwhilethe90sshowedstrongreturns,manyautomakersinvestedinadditionalcapacity,createdriskymodels,builtmorefactoriesandenteredintoemergingmarketsthathadmorelongtermpromisethanshortterm.Formanyyearsthelargesttruckandcarmakershavecontinuallysustainedlossesoutoftheirprimarybusinessesofcarsales,oftenmakingprofitsthroughmoneymadefromsellingsparepartsatinflatedprices,throughfinancingbusinessesorthroughexchangerates.Thisstructureisincreasinglyexposedinadownturn,especiallywhenincentiveslike0%financinghavehamperedthefinancingbusiness.Carpriceshavebeenfallingmakingalreadythinmarginsevenmorepressured.Theglobalautomotiveindustryisfacedwithmorecompetition,greaterpricetransparency,risingcustomerexpectationsandqualityimprovements,makingthepressureevengreateronprice.IntheUS,incentiveslike0%financingormoneybackhavekeptvolumeupbuthavealsopressuredprices.Whileincentivesareexpensive,wheneverautomakerspushpricesbackuptheirvolumescollapse.GlobalAutomotiveIndustryisonaGradualSlideAsidefromproductissues,TheBig3haveunder-fundedpensionliabilitiesandhealth-carebenefitsforretirees.Fordislosingcashandtheirbondshavebeendowngradedtojunkstatus.IftheUSmarketcontinuestoslidealarge-scalecompetitiverestructuringcouldoccur.Europeancarmakers,likeFiat,whichisladenwithdebtandproductionissues,couldbepurchasedbyothercompanieslikeGM(thatowns20%),oreventuallybeboughtoutbythestate.TheindustryupsidesfortheBig3:GeneralMotorswillcontinuetopursueitsgrowthstrategiesinordertoremaincompetitive.DaimlerChryslersisinthemidstofitsimprovedcoststructure,allowingittobettercompetewithGM.Fordisspendingalotofmoneyoncapitalexpenditures.Ifthecompanydoesnotexecute,itmaybeincrisis.TheBig3productshavehigherqualitythanever,althoughtheperceptionofqualityisnotashighasitshouldbe.CompanyPensionHealthcareGeneralMotors$19,300$51,000Ford$7,300$22,741DaimlerChrysler￡3,100￡12,113Pensionandhealthcaresource:MSDW,BasedonMmgt.DiscussionsTotalUSPensionFundandHealthcareLiability(inMM)USAutomotiveMarket:Slowing,butStilltheLargest TheUSautoindustryisthemostimportantonetotheglobalindustrysincetherewere16.7MregistrationsintheUnitedStatesin2002(downbymorethan3%fromthealltimehighin2000).TheUSmarketforlighttrucksandSUVs(8.6Mregistrationsin2002)surpassedthecarmarketin2002(8.1Mregistrations).ThelowlevelofUSfueltaxesboostedSUVsalesfarmorethaninanyothercountry,althoughrisingoilpricesandenvironmentallegislationcouldreducesales.In2002,roughlyone-fifthofthecars,lighttrucksandSUVsregisteredintheUnitedStateswereforeign.Californiahasthehighestrateofpassengercarpurchases,accountingforroughly13%ofthetotal.TheUSindustry,regardlessofitshighnumbers,iscurrentlysaturated.Thestockofpassengercarsperheadwastheninthlargestintheworldin2002.Withnearly500carsper1000ofthepopulation,theUShasmorecarsperheadthantheUnitedKingdom,butslightlyfewerthanItalyandGermany.CarusageisextremelyhighintheUnitedStatesoverothercountriesintheworld.TheaveragepersonintheUnitedStatestravelsabout9,000kmperyear,comparedto6,000kminWesternEuropeand4,000kminJapan.Big3ContinuetoLoseMarketSharetoJapan

Astheautomotiveindustrygetsmorecompetitive,AmericanconsumersarebuyingmoreJapaneseautomobilesduetotheirreputationforqualityandvalue.Toyota,HondaandNissanincreasedtheirU.S.salesandmarketshareinthefirsthalfof2003,whiletheBigThreemanufacturers(GM,Ford,DaimlerChrysler)sawtheirsalesdeclinedespitespendingheavilyonincentives.Thistrendstartedin1998,whendomesticmanufacturersstartedtolosenearly10pointsofshare,andtheJapanesegainednearly5.Industry-wide,carandlight-trucksalesweredown2.5%throughJune,to8.2M.However,thethreebiggestJapanesemanufacturerssold100,000morevehicles,andthedomesticBigThreesold200,000fewer.MarketshareforallJapanesebrandsisatanall-timehighof28.5%,anddomesticbrandshaveshrunktoahistoriclowof60.5%.TheeconomicdownturnhasfavoredautomakerslikeToyotasinceconsumershavebecomemorestingyanddiscriminatingwiththeirpurchases,thusfavoringqualityandvalue,whicharethemajorsellingpointsformostJapaneseautomakers(versus,forexample,luxuryautos).TheJapanesecontinuetograbbiggerchunksofthemarketdespiterecordspendingonincentivesbytheirdomesticrivals.AtthebeginningofJune,incentivesforChrysler,FordandGMaveraged$3,389pervehicle,versus$1,062forJapanesebrands.Koreanmakesaveraged$1,371andEuropeanbrandsaveraged$1,945.USCar/TruckShare1996vs.2003Source:TheEconomist,June2003Big3ContinuetoLoseMarketSharetoJapanTheBig3’sincentives(14%ofsaleprices)arelikelyunsustainable.TheirdependenceonincreasinglylargeincentivestooffsetthelowerresalevalueofUScarsreflectsperceivedproblemswiththeirlong-termqualityanddurability.Forexample,ToyotaandGMcarscanbevirtuallyidentical(sometimesmadeonthesameassemblylineaspartofaGM-Toyotajointventure),butbecauseGMsellsintheused-carmarketfor15-20%lessthanToyota,2GMroutinelyofferspurchaseincentivesof$1,000acar,fourtimesmorethanToyota’sgivebacks.3

TheBig3continuetoconcentratetheirtestingeffortsonthedefectratesofproductcomponents.However,thisfocusdoesn’tincreasethelikelihoodofproducingamoreappealingcar.FortheBig3,testsratethecar’scomponentsbutwithlessemphasisontheperformanceoftheentirecarasmeasuredbythedesiredattributes(suchasquietness).Conversely,Japaneseautomakersareparticularlyeffectiveattestingfortheattributesthatexcitetheirtargetcustomers.TheHondaCivic,forexample,istestedextensivelyforthreekeyattributes:fuelefficiency,initialproductquality,anddurability.Theresultingvehicleismorethanacollectionofdefect-freesubsystems;itisacarthatperformswellintheareasthatcustomershavecometoexpectfromHonda.TheupsidefordomesticautomakersisthatitisdoubtfultheJapanesecancontinueincreasingtheirshareatthesamepace.FewersegmentsareleftfortheJapanesetoinvade.TheToyotadivision,forexample,offersafulllineofvehiclescomparabletoFordorChevrolet,andithasarangeofmodelsintheLexusluxurydivisionthatincludessedans,SUVs,andsportscars.ProfitabilityisalsopressuredattheBig3comparedtoAsianmanufacturers.Forexample,Hondaaverages$1,581inprofitpervehicle(soldintheUS)andToyotagets$1,214.GeneralMotors,however,earnsonly$701whileChryslerGroupmakesonly$226.Fordlosesanaverageof$114oneachvehiclesoldlastyear.GlobalAutomotiveIndustry:MarketSharebyRevenueTheglobalautomotiveindustryishighlyconcentratedwhilemarketshareisshifting.DaimlerChrysler,FordMotor,andGeneralMotorsmakeup44%oftotalglobalsales.However,thisisonepercentlessthanlastyear,indicatingtheBig3’slossofmarketsharetosmallercompetitors.WhileToyotahasgreatlyincreaseditsmarketshareintheUS,thecompanyhasalsolostapercentageofmarketsharesincelastyear.ImportstoNorthAmericaarethehighestthey’vebeensincethelate80’s.OfparticularconcerntoAmericanmanufacturers,lighttrucksales,oncethemajorprofitgenerator,arelosingsharetoforeigncompetitorslikeToyotaandNissan.Source:StandardAndPoors,2003IndustryProfitabilitySeverelyPressuredThelargeautomakershavebeenfightingthedownturnandtryingtosustainsaleswithlargerebatesandeasycreditintheUSandincreasinglyinEurope.However,thesestrategieshaveseriouslypressuredprofits.DaimlerChryslerreportedinJuly2003thatnetincomefellworsethanithassincetheindustry’slastpoorearningsperiodinlate2001.Mitsubishipromotedeasycredit,includingloansthatdeferredpaymentsforayeartoconsumerswithweakcreditbuthaverecentlyrescindedthispromotionduetoprofiterosion.PSA’sprofitwashitmostlyduetotheriseoftheEuro,especiallyagainsttheBritishPoundandBrazilianReal,Brazilbeingwhereithasoneplant.Someautomakersareattributingthisspanofpoorearningstothebottomofthecurrentcycleofslowdown,howevermanyarestillseekingstructuralimprovementsandbetterpricingpowertobufferthiscycle.CompanyEarningsStatusIssuesGeneralMotorsOperatingprofitfell87%,AnnouncedearningsAugust8,2003IntenseUSpricewarseverelypressuredprofitsDaimlerChryslerSecondquarter2003operatingprofitfell62%Chryslerlosses,USpricewar,MercedessalesslackingRenaultOperatingprofitfell€588million.Lastreported7/24/03Globalsalesdecline(4.5%)infirsthalf;adversecurrencymovesPSAPuegotCitreonOperatingprofitsinautodivisiondown27%infirsthalf2003Strongeuro,weakFrenchdemandVolkswagen€400millionoffitspretaxprofit,announcedMay2003Foreign-exchangemoves,weakEuropeansalesMitsubishiForecasting$674MnetlossasofJuly2003USsalesdown20%in6mos.April;anticipates$420MchargeforbadcarloansFord96%dropinoperatingprofitinmidJulyannouncements$525MlossatFordofEurope,USpricewarSource:WallStreetJournal,EarningsReportsAutomakersStillPooratAligningSupplyandDemandProfitsintheglobalautoindustryaresufferingsinceOEMscannotaligntheirsupplywithconsumerdemand.Whileconsumerdemanddataisreadilyavailable,carmakersfollowlaggingindicatorsandtheresultisineffectiveadvertisingandrebatesandinventoryoverstocks.Thecurrentmethodsthatautomakersusetosatisfydemandareoutofalignment.Inrecordsalesyears(suchas2001),profitsintheautomobileindustryaveragedamere1.2%andonlythreecompanies—BMW,HondaandMagnaInternational-had5%profit.Forecastsoftenmissactualdemand.Forexample,demandforDaimler’sPTCruiserfarexceededsupplywhenitcameonthemarket.ThenDCXrampedupcapacityto230Kunits,makingitordinaryandbuyersmovedon.Rightnowthefactoryisdiscountingthemodel,furthererodingthemodel’simage.Suppliersarehurtbyvariation.WhenanOEMplansincorrectlyonaparticularplatformvolume,ofabout10-15%,thefactoryhastoraiseorlowervolumesuddenly.In2002saleswerethelowestinfouryears,leavingvehicleinventoryat70days.Seventydaysofinventorycanmean$40Bincapitalsittingonlots.MeanwhiledealersandOEMsspend$3Band$11B,respectively,everyyearonadvertisements.Theloopfromproductionplanningtomanufacturetosaleandbacktakesupto6months,whichistoolongtofixoverproductionofanunpopularconfigurationortoinformsuppliersofsurgesindemand.Withalaggingmarket,intensecompetitionandmorerapidlyshiftingconsumertastes,thispooralignmenthasbeenmoreobviousintheindustrythanever.Automakersarestillapplyinglastyear'ssalesresultstothecurrentyear’spre-plannedvolumewithoutconsiderationofhowmanydaysittooktosellspecificvehicles.USAutomotiveDistribution:InefficientNetworkDealersaccountfornearlyallUScarandcommercial-vehiclesales,butthesenetworksareincreasinglyinefficient.Automotivecompanieshavenotbeenabletorelocateorshutdownpoorperformersduetostatelaws.However,itispossibletoreshapedealernetworksbyorchestratingaseriesofownershipchanges,encouragingweakperformerstoexitthemarket,helpingtopperformerstoexpand,andencouragingdealerstoimprovesalesskills.Giventightprofitmargins,manufacturerscandefinitelyusetheextraprofitthatamoreefficientdistributionsystemcoulddeliver.U.Sdealernetworkswerebuiltinanincrementalanduncoordinatedwayoverseveraldecadescreatingroomforconsolidationaswellasotherefficiency-enhancingimprovements.Manufacturershaveawardedfranchisestothousandsofindependentowner-operatorsrangingfromsmallfamilybusinessestolargescalenationalchains.Onceadealershipopensforbusiness,themanufacturercan’texertmuchdirectcontroloveritandmustbecontent,essentially,withtheroleofproductandfinancingsupplier.Multi-brandmanufacturersfacetheadditionalcomplicationofdealingwithseveraloverlappingnetworksthatworkagainstoneanother.Adealerhassubstantialpowertoputamanufacturer’’stopandbottomlinesatrisk—forexample,bycuttingbackitsinvestmentinfacilities,pushingthebrandsofcompetitors,orpursuingfewerbuthigher-marginsalesattheexpenseofthemanufacturer’svolumegoals—therebyoptimizingitsprofitsandunderminingthoseoftheOEM.USautomotivemanufacturersrelyalmostentirelyondealerstodistributetheirproducts.In2001,dealershipshadsalesofmorethan$800billion—closeto100%ofthemanufacturers’’totalvehiclesales.Themanufacturersalsodependontheirdealernetworkstoprovidetheafter-salespartsandservicesthatarefundamentaltotheirsuccess.Source:McKinseyQuarterly,Strategy&Business,WallStreetJournal,EIUUSAutomotiveDistribution:InefficientNetworkFactorsIssuesGeographicDistributionOutletsmustbeclosetocustomersbutnottooclosetooneanother.TheoncerobustnetworksoftheBig3werebuiltlargelyinthe1920s-1950sandhaven’tbeenadaptedtodemographicshifts.Thesenetworksaretootightlyclusteredinurbanareasandtoosparseinthesuburbs.DealerSalesSomedealersarebetteratrunningtheirbusinessesthanothersyetmanufacturerscannoteliminatepoorperformingdealerships.Theexperienceofonemajormanufacturersuggeststhat,adjustingformarketsizeandlocation,dealersinthetopquartilesellthreetofourtimesasmanyvehiclesasdealersinthebottomquartile.BusinessFormatProvidingserviceandpartsisessentialtothehealthofdealershipsandmanufacturerswhosereputationdependsonservice.Somedealerscover100%oftheirfixed(andevenother)coststhroughpartsandservice.Somedealersdonotcapturedownstreamrevenuesinfull.Traditionalbusinessformatsrequireauthorizeddealerstoprovideserviceonlyatorneartheirshowrooms.Ifalocalmarketcan’tsupportthecustomaryfullsalesandserviceoperation,dealershavenowayofprovidingservicebythemselves,4andthenetworkforfeitstensofbillionsofdollarstoindependentrepairshopsandthird-partypartsmakers.Someautomakersestimatethattheycontrolnomorethan20%ofthetotalservicebusinessfortheircars(marginsonsparepartsareseveraltimeshigherthanthoseonnewcars).BrandMixManufacturersgenerallywantdealerstosellonlyonebrandatagivenshowroomtocreatestrongbrandloyalty,sharpenidentity,andminimizecompetitionwithinthenetwork.Dealersusuallywanttohedgetheirbets,sellingtwoormorebrands,sometimesfromcompetingmanufacturers.Single-branddealershipsaremostviableingrowingmarketsorforstrongproductsthatcanmakeitontheirown.Multiple-branddealershipsmakesenseinmarketswhereasinglebrandcan’tgiveadealersustainablesalesvolumes.SomeUSbrandsmightnotbeabletosurvivewithoutsharingshowroomswithastrongercomplementarybrand.Source:McKinseyQuarterly,Strategy&Business,WallStreetJournal,EIUUSAutomotiveDistribution:InefficientNetworkStatefranchiselawsandotherregulationsprotectdealersfrom““intrusive””movesofOEMs.Insomestates,directownershipofdealersbymanufacturersisprohibitedoutright;inothers,manufacturerscan’’tcloseorrelocatepoorlyperformingdealershipsandmustsettleforisolatedandrelativelysuperficialstore-levelimprovements(remodelingshowroomsorprovidingadditionalsalesandservicetraining).Ifthemanufacturerswereallowed,manywouldhavealreadyrestructuredtheirdealernetworks,consolidatingtheirpresenceinsomemarketsandexpandinginothers.Amoreintegratedapproachwheredealersandmanufactuersworktogether,sharingsalesdata,trendsandinformationislikelythebestsolutionfordealersandautomotivemanufacturers.AmongtheBigThree,FordandDaimlerChryslereachhasmorethan4,000dealerlocationsintheUnitedStates;GMhasmorethan7,500.Assessingtheperformanceofeachdealership,settingitsgoalsforthefuture,andoverseeingthenecessarychangesisathree-tofive-yearprocess.Manufacturerscanstartbymappingthebestlocationsfortheirshowroomsandservicecentersineverylocalmarketbyanalyzinghistoricandprojectedsalesdata,demographics,andmarkettrends.Mostmanufacturershavenotundertakenthesesteps,andthuscan’’tidentifydealersthathaveboththeskillsandtheresourcestoaddbrandstotheirfranchisesortosucceedinnewlocations.Tohaveanoptimallyconfigurednetwork,themanufacturermustputthebestdealersincontrolofit.Thismaybeaccomplishedbyusingnegotiatorstofacilitatethetransferofownershipamongdealersineachmarket.Manufacturerswillneedtoworkthroughdealerstoforgeaconsensusthatbenefitsboththemandthedealerstoovercomeregulatoryimpediments.Source:McKinseyQuarterly,Strategy&Business,WallStreetJournal,EIUEuropeanAutomotiveDistribution:IncreasedCompetitionfromEULegislationAdoptedinJuly2002,andeventuallyfullyimplementedinOctober2003,EUlegislationforblockexemptionswillforcetheautomotivedistributionsystemstobecomemorecompetitive,likelycreatingmorepricepressureforcars,parts,andservices.Underthenewrules,manufacturerscan:Optforexclusivity,grantingexclusivesalesterritoriesfortheirdistributors(thuslimitingcompetitionamongdealerssellingthesamebrand).Optforselectivity,givingthedealertherighttosellcarstonon-authorizedresellers,whichcan,inturn,sellthemanywhereintheEU.Thisalsoallowsmanufacturerstobannon-authorizedresellersbutpermitsdealerstosellandmarketcarsdirectlytoconsumersanywhereintheEU.Muchofthisnewlegislationwillleadtoincreasedcompetition.Restrictionsonmulti-branddealershipsarebeingeased,sobrandswillgetevenmorecompetitive.Cross-bordertradewillalsoincrease,whichcouldleadtogreaterInternetsales,anaccelerationoftheconsistencyofcarprices(whichvarywidelyacrosstheEU).Newrulesalsothreatencarmanufacturersshareandmarginsintheafter-salesmarket(wheretheyactuallymakemostoftheirprofit),bybreakingdownthecarbusinessvaluechain.Carmakerswillalsobeforcedtogiveindependentserviceproviderscompletetechnicalinformation,aswellasauthorizationofserviceproviders.Source:McKinseyQuarterly,Strategy&Business,WallStreetJournal,EIUUSAutomotiveOutlook:PoorinShortTerm,FairLongTermTheoutlookforUnitedStatespassengercarsalesgrowthispoorintheshorttermwhilelongtermprospectsarenobetterthanfair.Thesalespictureoverthelast18monthshasbeendistortedbysalesincentiveschemes(like0%financing)whichhadimmediateresults.Salescreatedoutofincentivestendtoreflectconsumptionbroughtforwardratherthannewspending.Thusvolumeswillfallfurtherover2003.TheUSmarketislesslikelytofallprecipitouslylikepreviouspeak-to-trougherasintheautomotiveindustry.Salesfell29%intheearly1980sand23%intheearly1990s.Thepeak-to-troughsalesfrom2001to2004areexpectedtoamounttoonly7%.TheUSmarketiscurrentlysaturatedwhichdoesnotbodewellforlongtermgrowth(averageannualgrowthinpassengercarregistrationsbetween2005and2007areexpectedtobejust1.3%ayear).ThisissimilartoGermany,FranceandItaly,butslowerthanemergingmarkets.CurrentlynoneoftheUS’’sBig3automakersarewellpreparedforamajordownturnintheautomobilemarketandtheirmediumtermprospectswillbeconstrainedbyglobalovercapacityanddownwardpressureonprices.Competitionislikelytoincreaseandtheindustry’scapacitywillgrowbuttheelasticityofdemandiscurrentlydeclining.Source:TheEconomist,E,MorganStanleyUSAutomotiveOutlook:MacroeconomicDriversTheautomotiveindustryhasbeendrivenbyinterestrateswhichwereat48-yearlows.Ratesareforecasttoincreasethrough2006whichwillhavesomeeffectonsales.GDPisexpectedtoincreasein3Q03andincreasebyapointin4Q03.GDPshouldstabilizethrough2004.Unemploymentisexpectedtostabilizeasjobcreationpicksup,howevernotatarapidrate.ForecastSource:GDPandInterestRateforecasts,EInterestRatesGDPNotes: (1)InterestRateisonNewCarLoan,CommercialBank(2)InterestRateisonNewCarLoan,FinanceCompanyForecastUSAutomotiveOutlook:ExpenseandProfitabilityForecastsSource:ESaleshaveincreasedbutnetprofitmarginshavesuffereddueto0%financingandareonlyreboundingslightly.Netprofitsandoperatingmarginsshouldstayflatfortheremainderoftheforecast.Capitalspendingisexpectedtoincreaseslightlyovertheforecast.Fordisexpectedtospend$1,210oncapex/unitproduced(GMisat$886).Saleswillstayflatthrough2003andincreaseonlyslightlyin2004.Thebiggestjumpinsalesisexpectedbetween2005and2006.Highend,SUVandminivanmodelsofferhigherprofitmargins,buttheirsaleshavedeclinedreducingprofitability.ForecastForecastGlobalAutomotiveIndustryOutlook:EmergingMarkets,ConsolidationIntheyearahead,therearesomesignificantchangesthatshouldaffecttheglobalautomotiveindustry,especiallyinlightofitsconsiderablepressureslikecost,maintainingproductionschedules,andsustainingorgainingmarketshare.Largestemergingmarkets--BrazilandChina--willcontributethemostgrowthintermsofdemand.Consolidationcontinuestobeanissuehoweverlocalplayersthatareregionallyorniche-focusedwillstillhaveanimportantpresence.Governmentsafetyandenvironmentalregulationscouldbecostlyforautomakersbutalsoleadtogreaterinvestmentsinhigh-techsuppliers,leadingtoentirelynewautomotiveinnovations.Itislikelythattheglobalautomotiveindustrywilleventuallyneedtoresorttoradicalchangesinordertoseepastprofitability.AutofactsGlobalAutomotiveForecast,2Q‘‘03AutomotiveRegionalMarkets:BusinessChallengesWesternEurope:DifficultEnvironmentInthefirstfourmonthsoftheyear,theEuropeanautomarketshrank3.7%comparedwiththesameperiodin2002.ContinueddifficultmarketsinEuropecouldleadtomoreexportstotheUnitedStateswhichwillfurtherweakenpricingthere.EconomicrecoveryremainsweakinEuropeandgrowthofpassengercarandcommercialvehiclesalesisnegative.Europeandemandfortrucksislike