Ford戰(zhàn)略分析報(bào)告摩根斯坦利課件

J.

2004J.

2004

:J..

&.(“”).28,2003,1%a:,,&,,.,.12,a,,,,.12,,,.,.,,,,,,,,.3,,.,,,.,,.,,,,.,&,,.,,.,,,,,.,,,,,,,.&.a,,,,,.,.

(31,2003)()

.(),,,a;,.,,,,,().'sa('s).12.

(O)-'s's('s),a12-18.

(E)-'s's('s),a12-18.

(U)-'s's('s),a,12-18.

(V)-a25%a()25%a,a,'s,1-12.

()."".

,1218.18,2002:;;;.,.

(A)..12-18.(I).12-18.(C)..12-18.

a,,,.....,a.a’s..,.,,..()Ford戰(zhàn)略分析報(bào)告摩根斯坦利.,,,.,,...,,,.,,..a..;().,;.67003734576,a,;,,,;,.,a,();&..,;,&.,212000..&...,,.("").,..Ford戰(zhàn)略分析報(bào)告摩根斯坦利:;:....,.:.:;:1.2%:.&:1.2%:.&:2003-2004:&*:2003-2004:&.16.703E16.804E:&.16.7:&

5.603E5.704E:5.6:

14.103E14.204E:14.1:2530%

20:&2530%

20:&/2003E:

:&*/2003E:

:&

:,.&/.a.a.:,.

:,.–aa...:

::::.,&::.,&a.177.6%:&a.177.6%:&

:&

:&():&():&

:&:&

,:&PeakTroughNowJan-02Oct-02Nov-03InterestRatesConsumerConfidenceGasolinePricesUsedCarPricesEmployment,:&PeakTroughNow25a:&25a:&

:2004.aa..:,:&20052003FordNissan(122)2503082004FordGM(211)(98)80=100,000unitsGMFordHondaNissanToyota125(146)18020030NetIncreaseOf853,000UnitsorRoughly5.1%ofNAsales2006Toyota150389180ToyotaDCXHyundai2356,:&20052003FordNis&1%.$1.0853,0005.1%,$5

03E()

$1,971 :&1%.$1.003E1970’s.:&1970’s.:&

:&:&

1%$1.0$850$550:1%:

76.0%60.2%61.7%1%$1:&76.0%60.2%61.7%1%/–03:&/–03:&:

03.02:&:

03.02:&:03-:&:03-:&..:&..:&:03:&:*,,:03:&a:a:02:&*&16.4%10.6%8.9%8.4%8.1%6.1%5.7%5.0%4.7%4.0%3.8%1.7%1.8%-6.2%02:&&16.4%a,.1%5$730-750.a,:2001.:&:2001.:&/:&/:&3:

:,&3:

:,&:&:.’s.,..,()().:&::2003:&:2003:&

a.F&a.’s..2004..

35.5%28.0%28.4%:&35.5%28.0%28.4%:&.&03:&$1,134$601$1,159$814$889$740$1,899$902$1074$185$88.&03:&$1,134$601$1,:2003:&:2003:&2003:&2003:&2003:&2003:&//:,’s&//:,’s&

..,,./..

F:&19.6%19.5%20.2%25.7%F:&19.6%19.5%20.2%25.7%F.:&F.:&F,1999-2004E:&F,1999-2004E:&F:3Q03.3Q02:&F:3Q03.3Q02:&F//:,’s&F//:,’s&F:&F:&;...$300-400($500-$700)2004,$900-1,000..;....2004.a2004.Ford戰(zhàn)略分析報(bào)告摩根斯坦利

12.2%12.8%13.1%:&12.2%12.8%13.1%:&&.A%

:&&.A%:&&:&&:&//:,’s&//:,’s&“”......,.:“”.:’:2003:&’:2003:&’:2003:&’:2003:&:.::.:Stephen.Girsky@MorganSStephen.Girsky@MorganStanley.c謝謝12月-2214:36:0914:3614:3612月-2212月-2214:3614:3614:36:0912月-2212月-2214:36:092022/12/2114:36:09謝謝12月-2222:55:0522:5522:5512

J.

2004J.

2004

:J..

&.(“”).28,2003,1%a:,,&,,.,.12,a,,,,.12,,,.,.,,,,,,,,.3,,.,,,.,,.,,,,.,&,,.,,.,,,,,.,,,,,,,.&.a,,,,,.,.

(31,2003)()

.(),,,a;,.,,,,,().'sa('s).12.

(O)-'s's('s),a12-18.

(E)-'s's('s),a12-18.

(U)-'s's('s),a,12-18.

(V)-a25%a()25%a,a,'s,1-12.

()."".

,1218.18,2002:;;;.,.

(A)..12-18.(I).12-18.(C)..12-18.

a,,,.....,a.a’s..,.,,..()Ford戰(zhàn)略分析報(bào)告摩根斯坦利.,,,.,,...,,,.,,..a..;().,;.67003734576,a,;,,,;,.,a,();&..,;,&.,212000..&...,,.("").,..Ford戰(zhàn)略分析報(bào)告摩根斯坦利:;:....,.:.:;:1.2%:.&:1.2%:.&:2003-2004:&*:2003-2004:&.16.703E16.804E:&.16.7:&

5.603E5.704E:5.6:

14.103E14.204E:14.1:2530%

20:&2530%

20:&/2003E:

:&*/2003E:

:&

:,.&/.a.a.:,.

:,.–aa...:

::::.,&::.,&a.177.6%:&a.177.6%:&

:&

:&():&():&

:&:&

,:&PeakTroughNowJan-02Oct-02Nov-03InterestRatesConsumerConfidenceGasolinePricesUsedCarPricesEmployment,:&PeakTroughNow25a:&25a:&

:2004.aa..:,:&20052003FordNissan(122)2503082004FordGM(211)(98)80=100,000unitsGMFordHondaNissanToyota125(146)18020030NetIncreaseOf853,000UnitsorRoughly5.1%ofNAsales2006Toyota150389180ToyotaDCXHyundai2356,:&20052003FordNis&1%.$1.0853,0005.1%,$5

03E()

$1,971 :&1%.$1.003E1970’s.:&1970’s.:&

:&:&

1%$1.0$850$550:1%:

76.0%60.2%61.7%1%$1:&76.0%60.2%61.7%1%/–03:&/–03:&:

03.02:&:

03.02:&:03-:&:03-:&..:&..:&:03:&:*,,:03:&a:a:02:&*&16.4%10.6%8.9%8.4%8.1%6.1%5.7%5.0%4.7%4.0%3.8%1.7%1.8%-6.2%02:&&16.4%a,.1%5$730-750.a,:2001.:&:2001.:&/:&/:&3:

:,&3:

:,&:&:.’s.,..,()().:&::2003:&:2003:&

a.F&a.’s..2004..

35.5%28.0%28.4%:&35.5%28.0%28.4%:&.&03:&$1,134$601$1,159$814$889$740$1,899$902$1074$185$88.&03:&$1,134$601$1,:2003:&:2003:&2003:&2003:&2003:&2003