基于地理信息系統(tǒng)的元胞自動機(jī)對城市土地開發(fā)與土地利用變化的模擬 英文翻譯與譯文 國土資源管理專業(yè)

基于地理信息系統(tǒng)的元胞自動機(jī)對城市土地開發(fā)與土地利用變化的模擬一、引言土地利用變化可以被視為是將某種土地的利用的方式轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榱硪环N利用方式，例如將農(nóng)業(yè)用地轉(zhuǎn)化為住宅用地；也可以被視為一塊暫時，沒有被開發(fā)的用地開始被開發(fā)。然而，土地并不會自己變化發(fā)展，所以土地利用變化的決策依賴于土地開發(fā)者的選擇。除了社會經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治因素之外，相鄰的土地使用模式也將影響土地開發(fā)者的決策行為。近年來，由于計算機(jī)科學(xué)的快速發(fā)展，基于GIS數(shù)據(jù)的元胞自動機(jī)開始廣泛的應(yīng)用于對城市土地利用變化的過程的模擬。本文以決策行為者之間的關(guān)系及土地利用變化為基礎(chǔ)，通過收集土地利用的GIS數(shù)據(jù)、土地價格、人口、城市規(guī)劃等信息，將他們轉(zhuǎn)化成50乘50平方米的網(wǎng)格，然后再利用元胞自動機(jī)的NETLogo功能模擬臺南市的土地利用變化。實證研究領(lǐng)域是在臺灣的臺南市第五時期重組的領(lǐng)域。其研究期間為1989年到2016年，土地利用變化模型的估計期限是1989年到2006年，預(yù)測期間為2007年到2016年。本文的結(jié)構(gòu)如下所述：下一章描述了本項研究所使用的方法，第三章是對變量和數(shù)據(jù)處理的描述，第四章是對土地開發(fā)概率邏輯模型的預(yù)測，第五章是對土地利用變化的模擬，最后第六章是本文的結(jié)論。二、方法A.研究領(lǐng)域。此研究領(lǐng)域坐落于臺灣的臺南市第五時期重組的領(lǐng)域，面積約631.49公頃。該地區(qū)原本是釣魚場，1979年，臺南市政府對該地區(qū)的城市土地利用計劃進(jìn)行了審查，并計劃將該地區(qū)作為重組區(qū)域進(jìn)行開發(fā)。B.土地利用開發(fā)估算模型的概率。本文假設(shè)土地利用變化是否取決于土地開發(fā)者的決策。土地開發(fā)者對土地發(fā)展的決策行為取決于土地開發(fā)的概率。本文將土地開發(fā)可能的模型視為邏輯回歸的概率模型。當(dāng)概率值超過土地開發(fā)的閾值時，開發(fā)商將會選擇開發(fā)土地。反之則選擇不開發(fā)土地。C.土地利用轉(zhuǎn)換的規(guī)則。利用CA進(jìn)行模擬時，土地利用轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)則主要取決于土地開發(fā)的可能性和相鄰?fù)恋氐臓顩r。當(dāng)這種可能性比較大時，土地將會被開發(fā)。同時，當(dāng)土里利用強(qiáng)度鄰近的網(wǎng)格高于中心網(wǎng)格時，該中心網(wǎng)格將會有一個更高發(fā)展的可能性。規(guī)則如下：1.如果土地利用中心的網(wǎng)格是空置的，發(fā)展住宅用途的可能性就會比發(fā)展成其他類型土地的可能性要大，如果鄰近住宅的網(wǎng)格數(shù)使用大于3個，那么處于中心網(wǎng)格的土地使用將會由空置變?yōu)樽≌玫亍?.如果土地利用中心的網(wǎng)格是空置的，開發(fā)商業(yè)用地的可能性大于其他類型的土地，如果鄰近燭照用途的網(wǎng)格數(shù)大于5個，那么中心網(wǎng)格的土地將會由空置變?yōu)樯虡I(yè)用地。3.如果位于中心網(wǎng)格的土地用途是住宅區(qū)，發(fā)展商業(yè)用途的概率大于住宅用途的概率，同時鄰近住宅用地的網(wǎng)格數(shù)大于5個，那么中心網(wǎng)格的土地將會由住宅用地變?yōu)樯虡I(yè)用地。4.如果位于中心網(wǎng)格的土地用途是商業(yè)區(qū)，發(fā)展住宅用途的概率大于商業(yè)用途的概率，同時鄰近住宅用地的網(wǎng)格數(shù)不少于4個，那么中心網(wǎng)格的土地將會由商業(yè)用地變?yōu)樽≌玫?。SimulationofUrbanLandDevelopmentandLandUseChangeEmployingGISwithCellularAutomataI.INTRODUCTIONLand-usechangecanberegardedaschangingacertaintypeoflanduseintotheuseofothertypes,suchasfromagriculturallandusetoresidentialuse;alsobeseenasapieceoflandfrom"undevelopedstate"intoa"developmentstate."However,thelanditselfdoesnotself-developed,sotheactualland-usedecision-makingbehaviordependsonthechoicesoflanddevelopers.Inadditiontothesocio-economicandpolicyfactors,theadjacentlandusepatternswillaffectthelanddeveloper'sdecision-makingbehavior.Inrecentyears,duetotherapiddevelopmentofcomputerscienceandcomplexity,itiswidespreadtouseCellularAutomata(CA)withGISdatatosimulatetheprocessofurbanlandusechange.Thisstudy,basedontherelationshipbetweenactor’sdecision-makingbehaviorandland-usechanges,collectsGISdataoflanduses,landprice,population,urbanplanningandsoforth,transformstheminto50by50meterssquaregrid,andthenusingNetLogowithCellularAutomata(CA)functiontosimulatetheland-usechangeinTainancity.TheempiricalstudyareaisthereconsolidatedareaofthefifthperiodinTainancity,Taiwan.Thestudyperiodis1989-2016yearswhichtheperiodofestimatingtheland-usechangingmodelis1989-2006andtheforecastingperiodis2007-2016.Theorganizationofthepaperisasfollows:thenextsectiondescribesthemethodsadoptedinthisstudy;section3describesthevariablesanddataprocessing;section4estimatestheLogisticmodeloflanddevelopmentprobability;section5simulatesland-usechange;andfinally,section6providestheconclusion.II.METHODSA.StudyAreaTheempiricalstudyarea,covered631.49Hectares,locatesinthereconsolidatedareaofthefifthperiodinTainancity,Taiwan.Thisareawasoriginallyfishingfarms.In1979,TainanCityGovernmentreviewedthearea’surbanplanningandplannedthisareaasareconsolidatedareatodevelop.B.TheEstimatingModelofLand-useDevelopmentProbablityThisarticleassumeswhetherland-usechangesdependonthechoiceoflanddevelopers.Landdevelopersforlanddevelopmentdecision-makingbehaviordependontheprobabilityoflanddevelopment.ThisstudysetlanddevelopmentprobabilitymodelbyLogisticRegressionModel.Whentheprobabilityvalueexceedsathresholdoflanddevelopment,landdeveloperswillchoosetodeveloptheland.Onthecontrary,choosenottodevelop.C.LandUseConversionRulesIntheCAsimulation,Land-useconversionrulesmainlydependonthelanddevelopmentprobabilityandneighborhoodconditions.Whentheprobabilityoflanddevelopmentisgreaterthanthethresholdvalue,thelandwillbedeveloped.Besides,whenthelanduseintensityofneighboringgridsishigherthanthecentergrids’,thecentergridwillhaveahigherdevelopmentprobability.Therulesareasfollows:1.Ifthelanduseinthecentergridisvacant,theprobabilityofdevelopingresidentialuseisthegreatestthanotherstypeuses,andthegridnumbersofneighboringresidentialusearegreaterthan3,thenthelanduseinthecentergridwillbechangedfromvacantintoresidentialuse.2.Ifthelanduseinthecentergridisvacant,theprobabilityofdevelopingcommercialuseisthegreatestthanotherstypeuses,andthegridnumbersofneighboringresidentialusearegreaterthan5,thenthelanduseinthecentergridwillbechangedfromvacantintocommercialuse.3.Ifthelanduseinthecentergridisresidential,theprobabilityofdevelopingcommercialuseisgreaterthanresidentialuse,andthegridnumbersofneighboringresidentialusearegreaterthan5,thenthelanduseinthecentergridwillbechangedfromresidentialintocommercialuse.4.Ifthelanduseinthecentergridiscommercial,theprobabilityofdevelopingresidentialuseisgreaterthancommercialuse,andthegridnumbersofneighboringresidentialusearelessthan4,thenthelanduseinthecentergridwillbechangedfromcommercialuseintoresidualuse.III.VARIABLESANDDATAPROCESSINGA.Variables1.Landusepatterns:Dividinginto10kindsoflanduse,includingvacantuse,residentialuse,commercialuse,officialland,schoolsites,park,roads,gasstationsandparkinglot,sewagefarmandsubstation,conservedland.2.Othervariablesaffectingland-usechange:landprice,landpricegrowthrates,thenumberoflandownership,population:Unitgridaveragepopulation,thenumberofpublicfacilities,distancetothenearestroads,floorarearatio.B.DataProcessingInthisstudy,thegridsizescaleis50by50meterssquare.GISdatabaseconversedintoNetLogosoftwareshownasFig1.Thegridsnumberofland-usepatternin1989&2006showninTableI.IV.ESTIMATINGTHEMODELOFLANDDEVELOPMENTPROBABILITYTheestimatingresultsoflanddevelopmentprobabilityshowninTableII.V.LAND-USECHANGESIMULATIONANALYSISFollowingwewillconfirmtheaccuracyofsimulationresults,andthensimulatelandusechanges.Thesimulationincludes:(a)landusechangesin1989-2006;(b)landusechangesin2007-2016;(c)effectsofpolicychangesinurbanplanning.A.modelvalidationThecorrectrateofpredictingdevelopmentis99.06%.Theaccuracyrateofforecastingland-useis78.61%.Theaccuracyrateofforecastingthetotalnumberofdevelopmentis99.38%.B.Simulationofland-usechangein1989-2006ThegridnumbersofthelandusechangeeachyearshowasfollowedFig.2.Predictionofland-usechangein2007-2016Thepredictionofland-usechangein2007-2016showasFig.3D.PolicySimulationAnalysis1.floorarearatioadjustment2.PopulationdensityadjustmentTheresultsshowninFig.5.VI.CONCLUSIONSThepurposeofland-usechangesimulationistostudytheimpactsofpolicychange.Iftherelationsbetweenlandusechangeandpolicychangecouldberealized,itwillbeausefultoolforlawmaking,andfurtheravoidingcontinuousdamageofenvironment.Thisstudyfindingshowsthatitisusefultocontrolthepopulationdensityandlanduseintensitywhenmakingurbanplanplanning.Therefore,theresultsandprocessesofLUCCsimulationcanbeemployedasassessmentsbeforelandconstructionplanninganddevelopment;italsoprovideslanduseplannersusefulreferences.TheresultsofCAsimulationshowedthattheresidentialuseandcommercialuseoftheland-usepatternsgraduallyincreasedoverthepast13yearsinthisresearcharea,andthere’llbenovacantlandafter2002.Furthermore,thegridnumbersforresidentialusewereaboutfourtimesofgridnumbersforcommercialuse.Thetypeoflanduseismainlyresidentialuse.Thedecision-makersshouldbecarefulconsiderationforguidingthecitytowardstheclosedevelopmentorexpansionofdevelopment.Inthispaper,wehavethepolicyimplicationbyadjustingthefloorarearatioandpopulationdensity.Theresultsshowedthatincreasingfloorarearatiowillincreaselanduseintensity,accommodatemoreurbandevelopmentactivitiesandbusinessbehavior.Besides,thehigherpopulationdensitymaystimulatecommercialactivities.Sotheland-usepatternswillbechangedintohigher-intensitycommercialuse.Theresultsshowedthatdifferentpolicywilldifferentlyaffectthedevelopmentofland-usepatterns,sothegovernmentshouldreconsiderwhat’shisgoalofregionaldevelopment.REFERENCES[1]A.Ligtenberg,A.K.BregtandR.V.Lammeren,”Multi-Actor-BasedLandUseModeling:SpatialPlanningUsingAgents,”LandscapeandUrbanPlanning,vol.56,2001,pp.21-33.[2]F.Wu,“AnEmpiricalModelofIntra-metropolitanLandUseChangeinaChineseCity,”EnvironmentandPlanningB:PlanningandDesign,vol.125,1998,pp.245-263.[3]M.Batty,X.YichunandS.Zhanli,”Mod