怎么選擇最適合自己的凈水器和最好的凈水器？課件

ChallengesforWorldSecurityPolicyJohnSmartUSAWC,August2004,Carlisle,PAAdaptingtotheFuture:

TheImpactofAcceleratingChange蝸牛之家網(wǎng)http?2004ASystemsTheorySystemsTheoristsMakeThingsSimple(sometimestoosimple!)"Everythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossible,butnotsimpler." —AlbertEinstein?2004AInstitutefortheStudyof

AcceleratingChangeISAC(A)isanonprofitcommunityofscientists,technologists,entrepreneurs,administrators,educators,analysts,humanists,andsystemstheoristsdiscussinganddissectingacceleratingchange.Wepractice“developmental

futurestudies,”thatis,weseektodiscoverasetofpersistentfactors,stabletrends,convergentcapacities,andhighlyprobablescenariosforourcommonfuture,andtousethisinformationnowtoimproveourdailyevolutionarychoices.Specifically,theseincludeacceleratingintelligence,immunity,andinterdependenceinourglobalsociotechnologicalsystems,increasingtechnologicalautonomy,andtheincreasingintimacyofthehuman-machine,physical-digitalinterface.?2004AFourTypesofFutureStudiesExploratory(SpeculativeLiterature,Art)Agenda-Driven(Institutional,StrategicPlans)Consensus-Driven(Political,TradeOrganizations)Research-Predictive

(StableDevelopmentalTrends)ThelastisthecriticaloneforaccelerationstudiesandsingularitystudiesItisalsotheonlyonegeneratingfalsifiablehypothesesAcceleratingandincreasinglyefficient,autonomous,miniaturized,andlocalizedcomputationisapparentlyafundamentalmeta-stableuniversaldevelopmentaltrend.Ornot.Thatisakeyhypothesisweseektoaddress.?2004AObservation1:

The“PredictionWall”Thefasterchangegoes,theshorter-termouraveragebusinessplans.Ten-yearplans(1950's)havebeenreplacedwithten-week(quarterly)plans(2000's).Futureappearsverycontingent,onaverage.Thereisagrowinginabilityofhumanmindstoimaginesomeaspectsofourfuture,atimethatmustapparentlyincludegreater-than-humantechnologicalsophisticationandintelligence.JudithBerman,in"ScienceFictionWithouttheFuture,"2001,notesthatevenmostsciencefictionwritershaveabandonedattemptstoportraytheacceleratedtechnologicalworldoffiftyyearshence.?2004AObservation2:

ThePredictionCrystalBallWhatdoeshindsighttellusaboutprediction?TheYear2000wasthemostintensivelongrangepredictioneffortofitstime,doneattheheightoftheforecasting/operationsresearch/cybernetics/thinktank(RAND)driven/“instrumentalrationality”eraoffuturestudies(Kahn&Wiener,1967).?2004ALesson1:ForecastingincertaindomainsofthemodernenvironmentishighlypredictableExample:InformationandCommunicationTechnologiesEvaluatingthepredictionsofTheYear2000,technologyroadmapperRichardAlbrightnotes: “Forecastsincomputersandcommunicationstoodoutasabout80%correct,whileforecastsinallotherfields(social,political,etc.)werejudgedtobelessthan50%correct.”Why?HereTY2000usedtrendextrapolation(simple).ThemajorICTchangetheymissedwasmorphological(nonsimple)themassive“networktransition,”todecentralizedvs.centralizedcomputing.RichardAlbright,“WhatcanPastTechnologyForecastsTellUsAbouttheFuture?”,

TechnologicalForecastingandSocialChange,Jan2002?2004ARelativeGrowthRatesareAlsoAmazinglyPredictableBradDeLong(2003)notedthatmemorydensitypredictablyoutgrowsmicroprocessordensity,whichpredictablyoutgrowswiredbandwidth,whichpredictablyoutgrowswireless.Expect:1st:NewStorageApps,2nd:NewProcessingApps,3rd:NewCommunicationsApps,4th:NewWirelessApps?2004ALesson2:BothSocialandDevelopmentalFactorsDetermineForecastingExpertiseProfessionalfuturistsJosephCoates,JohnMahaffie,andAndyHines,abroadliteraturereview,note:“Inreviewingthe54areas(inscienceandtechnology)inwhichwegatheredforecasts,fourclearlystoodoutasthebest:aerospace,informationtechnology,manufacturing,androbotics.”Theyalsonote:“Inaerospaceandinformationtechnology,thereiswidespreadinterestandgovernmentalemphasisonforecasts…Inotherfields,suchaseconomicsandbasicmathematics,thereislittleornothing[inforecastingthefuturesofthefield,vs.usingthefieldforforecasts].Q:Whatcausesthisselectiveinterest?JosephCoates,JohnMahaffie,AndyHines,“TechnologicalForecasting:1970-1993”,

TechnologicalForecastingandSocialChange,1994?2004ASomethingCuriousIsGoingOnUnexplained.(Don’tlookforthisinyourphysicsorinformationtheorytexts…)

?2004ABriefHistoryofAcceleratingChangeBillionYearsAgo12BigBang(MEST)11.5MilkyWay(Atoms)8Sun(Energy)4.5Earth(Molecules)3.5Bacteria(Cell)2.5Sponge(Body)0.7Clams(Nerves)0.5Trilobites(Brains)0.2Bees(Swarms)0.100Mammals0.002Humans,Tools&ClansCo-evolutionGenerationsAgo100,000Speech750Agriculture500Writing400Libraries40Universities24Printing16AccurateClocks5Telephone4Radio3Television2Computer1Internet/e-Mail0GPS,CD,WDM?2004AObservation1:

TechIntervalTimeCompression

3millionyearsagocollectiverockthrowing;earlystonetools1.5millionyearsagolever,wedge,inclinedplane500,000yearsagocontroloffire50,000yearsagobowandarrow;finetools5,000yearsagowheelandaxle;sail500yearsagoprintingpresswithmovabletype;rifle50yearsagocommercialdigitalcomputers10yearsagocommercialinternet?2004AObs.2:ContinuousTechInnovation(Evenin400-1400A.D.,FallofRometoBlackPlague)TechnologicalorSociotechnologicalInnovation Date(A.D.),Location

Alchemy(pre-science)developsawidefollowing 410,Europe ConstantinopleUniversity 425,Turkey PowersandRoots(Arybhata) 476,India Heavyplow;horseshoes;practicalhorseharness 500,Europe Woodencoffins(Alemanni) 507,Germany Drawlooms(silkweaving) 550,Egypt Decimalreckoning 595,India CanterburyMonastery/University 598,England Bookprinting 600,China Suan-Ching(ScienceEncyclopedia) 619,China OriginumEtymologiarumLiibriXX(Sci.Encyc.) 622,Spain Firstsurgicalprocedures 650,India Waterwheelformilling(Medievalenergysource) 700,Europe StirruparrivesinEuropefromChina 710,Europe EarlyChemistry(AbuMasaDshaffar) 720,Mid-East ?2004AContinuousTechInnovation

(400-1400A.D.,FallofRometoBlackPlague)Medicine,Astronomy,Math,Optics,Chemistry 750,ArabSpain HanlinAcademy 750,China PictorialBookPrinting 765,Japan Ironandsmithingbecomecommon;fellingax 770,Europe Chemistry(Jabir) 782,Mid-East MayanAcropoli(peak) 800,Mexico Algebra(MuhammedalChwarazmi) 810,Persia PtolemaicAstronomy;Soapbecomescommon 828,Europe Rotarygrindstonetosharpeniron 834,Europe Papermoney 845,China SalernoUniversity 850,Italy Ironbecomescommon;Trebuchets 850,Europe Astrolabe(navigation) 850,Mid-East AngkorThom(city) 860,Cambodia NewMathematicsandScience(Jahiz,Al-Kindi) 870,Mid-East Vikingshipbuilding 900,Europe PaperarrivesinArabworld 900,Egypt ?2004AContinuousTechInnovation

(400-1400A.D.,FallofRometoBlackPlague)Glassmirrors 1180,England SecondMayanCivilization 1190,Cent.AmericaCambridgeUniversity 1200,England ArabicnumeralsinEurope(LeonardoFibonacci) 1202,England Tiledroofs 1212,England Cottonmanufacture 1225,Spain Coalmining 1233,England RogerBacon,ourfirstscientist(Opus;Communia) 1250,England Goosequillwritingpen 1250,Italy Theinquisitionbeginsusinginstrumentsoftorture 1252,Spain Tradesmanguildsengageinstreetfightingoverturf 1267,England Tollroads 1269,England Humandissection 1275,England Woodblockprinting;spectacles 1290,Italy Standardizationofdistancemeasures(yard,acre) 1305,England Useofgunpowderforfirearms(BertholdSchwarz) 1313,Germany Sawmill;wheelbarrow;cannon(largeandhand) 1325,Europe ?2004AContinuousTechInnovation

(400-1400A.D.,FallofRometoBlackPlague)PisaandGrenobleUniversities;QueensCollege 1330,Europe Firstscientificweatherforecasts(WilliamMerlee) 1337,England MechanicalclockreachesEurope 1354,France Blastfurnaces;castironexplodesacrossEurope 1360,Europe Steelcrossbowfirstusedinwar 1370,Europe Vienna,Hiedelberg,andCologneUniversities 1380,Europe IncorporationoftheFishmonger'sCompany 1384,England JohannGutenberg,inventorofmassprinting,born 1396,GermanyLesson:Techinnovationappearstobeadevelopmentalprocess,independentofWars,Enlightenments,Reformations,Inquisitions,Crusades,Subjugations,andotheraspectsofourcyclicevolutionaryideological,cultural,andeconomichistory.Techadvancesaresomethingweconsistentlychoose,evenunconsciously,regardlessofwhoisinpower,becausetheyhavestrong"non-zerosum"effectsonhumanaspirations.?2004ATransistorDoublings(2years)CourtesyofRayKurzweilandKurzweilAI.net?2004AProcessorPerformance(1.8years)CourtesyofRayKurzweilandKurzweilAI.net?2004AManyUnexpectedPhysicalProcessesareMoore’s-Related,e.g.Dickerson’sLawRichardDickerson,1978,CalTech:Proteincrystalstructuresolutionsgrowaccordington=exp(0.19y1960)Dickerson’slawpredicted14,201solvedcrystalstructuresby2002.Theactualnumber(inonlineProteinDataBank(PDB))was14,250.Just49more.Macroscopically,thecurvehasbeenquiteconsistent.?2004AHansMoravec,Robot,1999?2004AHenryAdams,1909:

TheFirstSingularityTheoristThefinalEtherealPhasewouldlastonlyaboutfouryears,andthereafter"bringThoughttothelimitofitspossibilities."

Wildspeculationorcomputationalreality?Stilltooearlytotell,atpresent.?2004AEldredgeandGould (BiologicalSpecies)Pareto’sLaw(“The80/20Rule”) (incomedistributiontechnology,econ,politics) RuleofThumb: 20%Punctuation(Development) 80%Equilibrium(Evolution)SuggestedReading:Forthe20%:ClayChristiansen,TheInnovator'sDilemmaForthe80%:JasonJennings,LessisMorePunctuatedEquilibrium(inBiology,

Technology,Economics,Politics…)?2004ASaturation:ABiologicalLessonHowSCurvesGetOldResourcelimitsinaniche

MaterialEnergeticSpatialTemporalCompetitivelimitsinaniche

Intelligence/Info-ProcessingCuriousFacts:

1.Ourspecialuniversalstructurepermitseachnewcomputational substrateto

befarmoreMESTresource-efficientthanthelast

2.ThemostcomplexlocalsystemshavenointellectualcompetitionResult:Noapparentlimitstotheaccelerationoflocalintelligence,interdependence,andimmunityinnewsubstratesovertime.?2004AP.E.Lesson:MaintainingEquilibrium

isOur80%AdaptiveStrategyWhilewegamelytryunpredictableevolutionarystrategiestoimproveourintelligence,interdependence,andresiliency,thesedon’talwayswork.Whatiscertain

isthatsuccessfulsolutionsalwaysincreaseMESTefficiency,they“domore,better,withless.”

Strategiestocapitalizeonthis:Teachefficiency/ORasacivicandbusinessskill.Lookgloballytofindmostresource-efficientsolutions.PracticecompetitiveintelligenceforMEST-efficiency.BuildaculturethatrewardsMESTrefinements.

Examples:Brazil'sUrbanBusSystem,CopiedinLA.OpenSourceSoftware.Lastyear’smaturetechnologies.Recycling.30millionoldcellphonesinU.S.,sendtoEN’s.?2004ASaturationExample1:

TotalWorldPopulationPositivefeedbackloop:

Agriculture,ColonialExpansion,Economics,ScientificMethod,Industrialization,Politics,Education,Healthcare,InformationTechnologies,etc.?2004ASoWhatStoppedtheGrowth??2004ASaturationExample2:

TotalWorldEnergyUseDOE/EIAdatashowstotalworldenergyusegrowthratepeakedinthe1970’s.Realandprojectedgrowthisprogressivelyflattersince.Saturationfactors:1.Majorconservationafter1973-74oilshocks2.StunningMESTefficiencyofeachnew generationoftechnologicalsystem3.Saturationofhumanpopulation,andof humanneedsfortechtransformationSteveJurvetsonnotes(2003)theDOEestimatessolidstatelighting(eg.theorganicLEDsintoday'sstoplights)willcuttheworld'senergydemandforlightinginhalfoverthenext20years.Lightingisapproximately20%ofenergydemand.ExpectsuchMESTefficienciestobemultiplieddramaticallyincomingyears.Technologyisbecomingmoreenergy-effectiveinwaysveryfewofuscurrentlyunderstand.?2004AEndofFossilFuels?

Don’tHoldYourBreathHydrogen,Solar,andotherrenewablesmaywellturnouttohavebeenanunachievabledream,likeNuclearPoweredHousesand20thCenturyMarsColonies.PromisingonpaperbutruthlesslyoutcompetedbyacceleratingMESTefficienciesinolder,maturelegacytechnologies,likezeroemissionfossilfuelcombustion,carbonsequestration,nanofiltration(desalination,etc.).Chinaispioneeringcoalliquefactionandnuclearpower.China,Australia,Canada,severalothersareverycoal-richnations.Naturalgasconversionisnowdownto$40/barrel.WehavehundredsofyearsofplanetaryNGreserves,atleastathousandyearsofprovencoalreserves,and(theoretically)similarmethanehydrateanddeepoceanoilreserves.BuckyFullerwasright.EnergyissoplentifulonEarthitisbecomingsteadilylessgeopoliticallyimportant,astheeconomy“etherealizes”(virtualizes).Oldparadigm.?2004ATheTheoryof

EvolutionaryDevelopmentEvolutionvs.Development

“TheTwin’sThumbprints”Considertwoidenticaltwins:ThumbprintsBrainwiringEvolutiondrivesalmostalltheuniquelocalpatterns.Developmentcreatesthepredictableglobalpatterns.?2004AUnderstandingDevelopmentJustafewthousanddevelopmentalgenesrideherdoverallthatmolecularevolutionarychaos.Yettwogenetictwinslook,inmanyrespects,identical.Howisthatpossible?They’vebeentuned,cyclically,forafuture-specificconvergentemergentorder,inastabledevelopmentenvironment.OriginationofOrganismalForm,MüllerandNewman,2003?2004ACambrianExplosionComplexEnvironmentalInteractionSelection/Emergence/PhaseSpaceCollapse/MESTCollapseDevelopmentAdaptiveRadiation/Chaos/Pseudo-RandomSearchEvolution570mya.35bodyplansemergedimmediatelyafter.Nonewbodyplanssince!

Onlynewbrainplans,builtontopofthebodyplans(homeoboxgeneduplication).Body/brainplans:“eukaryoticmulticell.evolutionarydevelopmentalsubstrates.”InvertebratesVertebratesBacteriaInsectsMulticellularityDiscovered?2004AMemeticEvolutionaryDevelopmentComplexInteractionSelection,ConvergenceConvergentSelectionMESTCompressionDevelopmentReplication,VariationNaturalSelectionPseudo-RandomSearchEvolutionVariationsonthisev.dev.modelhavebeenproposedfor:Neuralarboralpruningtodevelopbrains(Edelman,NeuralDarwinism,‘88)Neuralnetconnectionstoseepatterns/makeoriginalthoughts(UCSDINS)Neuralelectricalactivitytodevelopdominantthoughts(mosaics,fighting forgrossly2Dcorticalspace)(Calvin,TheCerebralCode,1996)Inputtoaneuralnetworkstartswithchaos(rapidrandomsignals),thencreatesemergentorder(time-stablepatterns),inbothartificialandbiologicalnets.Validitytesting:Hybridelectronic/lobsterneuronnets(UCSDINS)?2004ATheLeftandRightHandsof

“EvolutionaryDevelopment”ComplexEnvironmentalInteractionSelection&Convergence“ConvergentSelection”Emergence,GlobalOptimaMEST-Compression

StandardAttractorsDevelopmentReplication&Variation

“NaturalSelection”AdaptiveRadiationChaos,ContingencyPseudo-RandomSearchStrangeAttractorsEvolutionRightHandLeftHandWell-ExploredPhaseSpaceOptimizationNewComputat’lPhaseSpaceOpening?2004ARVISCLifeCycleof

EvolutionaryDevelopmentReplication Spacetimestablestructure,transmissiblepartiallybyinternal(DNA)templateandpartiallybyexternal(universalenvironmental)template.Templatesaremoreinternalwithtime.Variation Abilitytoencode“requisitevariety”ofadaptiveresponsestoenvironmentalchallenges,topreserveintegrity,createnovelty.Interaction(Complex,SpacetimeBounded) Earlyexplorationofthephasespacefavorsnaturalselection,fullexploration(“canalization”)favordevelopmentalselection.Selection(“Natural/Evolutionary”Selection) Information-producing,randomized,chaoticattractors.Convergence(“Developmental”Selection) MEST-efficient,optimized,standardattractors.?2004AMarbles,Landscapes,andBasins

(ComplexSystems,Evolution,&Development)Themarbles(systems)rollaroundonthelandscape,eachtakingunpredictable(evolutionary)paths.Butthepathspredictablyconverge(development)onlowpoints(MESTcompression),the“attractors”atthebottomofeachbasin.?2004AHowManyEyesAre

DevelopmentallyOptimal?Evolutiontriedthisexperiment.Developmentcalculatedanoperationaloptimum.Somereptiles(e.g.Xantusiavigilis,certainskinks)stillhaveaparietal(“pineal”)vestigialthirdeye.?2004AOptimizationandMESTEfficiency:

ThePromiseofOperationsResearchIsaFourWheeledAutomobileanInevitableDevelopmentalAttractor?Examples:WheelonEarth.Socialcomputationdevice.Diffusionproportionaltopopulationdensityanddiversity.?2004ATroodonandtheDinosauroidHypothesisDaleRussell,1982:

Anthropoidformsasastandardattractor.Anumberofsmalldinosaurs(raptorsandoviraptors)developedbipedalism,binocularvision,complexhandswithopposablethumbs,andbrain-to-bodyratiosequivalenttomodernbirds.Theywereintelligentpack-huntersofbothlargeandsmallanimals(includingourmammalianprecursors)bothdiurnallyandnocturnally.Theywouldlikelyhavebecomethedominantplanetaryspeciesduetotheirsuperiorintelligence,hunting,andmanipulationskillswithouttheK-Tevent65millionyearsago.?2004AWhyisUprightPosture

EnergeticallyMoreEfficient?Observation:Thesmartestbioorganismsareslow-movingbipeds.

Onceaspeciesisculturallycomputingusingbehavioralmimicry(andlater,sounds),inhigh-densitylivingenvironments,andusingmimicrydefenseslikecollectiverockthrowingat80mph(whichrequiresopposablethumbsandstrongarms),suchfavoredspeciesnolongerneedtobefast,thick-skinned,orsharp-taloned.Fromthispointforward,theycanoptimizecomputationbymovingmoredenselyandslowlyonaverage,withintheirnewestphasespaceforevolutionarydevelopment:mimicryandmemeticculture.Theory:Ouronce-horizontalbackshaveonlyveryrecentlybeencoaxedintoanalmostalwaysuprightposition,formaximumhandmanipulationability,hencethe"scoliosiscurve"ofourlowerbackwithitspains.Inthemodernworldniche,wespendmostofourdaysphysically

inactiveinsidelargeboxes(nowmainlyinfrontofelectronicboxes),ormovingbetweenboxesinsidesmallerwheeledboxes,whileourcollectivecomputationsflowacrosstheplanetatthespeedoflight.Thebrainsofourelectronicsuccessors(nottheirsensorsandeffectors)willmostcertainlybeevenmoreimmobilestill,ifthedevelopmentalsingularityhypothesisiscorrect.

?2004ATheChallengeinManaging

TechnologicalDevelopmentSincethebirthofcivilization,humanityhasbeenlearningtobuildspecialtypesoftechnologicalsystemsthatareprogressivelyabletodomoreforus,inamorenetworkedandresilientfashion,usinglessresources

(matter,energy,space,time,humanandeconomiccapital)todeliveranyfixedamountofcomplexity,productivity,orcapability.Wearefaceddailywithmanypossibleevolutionarychoicesinwhichtoinvestourprecioustime,energy,andresources,butonlyafewoptimaldevelopmentalpathwayswillclearly"domore,andbetter,withless."?2004AEvolutionandDevelopment:

YinandYang?2004AEvolutionandDevelopment:

TwoUniversalSystemsProcessesEacharepairsofafundamentaldichotomy,polaropposites,conflictingmodelsforunderstandinguniversalchange.Theeasyobservationisthatbothprocesseshaveexplanatoryvalueindifferentcontexts.

Thedeeperquestioniswhen,where,andhowtheyinterrelate.

EvolutionChance

Randomness

Variety/Many

Possibilities

Uniqueness

Uncertainty

Accident

Bottom-up

Divergent

DifferentiationDevelopmentNecessity

Determinism

Unity/One

Constraints

Sameness

Predictability

Design(self-organizedorother)

Top-Down

Convergent

Integration?2004AEvo-DevoProvides

ReasonsforPolaritiesEvolutionCreativity

Novelty-Seeking

Female

“RightBrain”

Democratic

Freedom

Experimentation

Play

EntropyCreation

“WatchaMovieat1am”

“Sleepat1pm”DevelopmentDiscovery

Truth-Seeking

Male

“LeftBrain”Republican

Justice

Optimization

Work

EntropyDensityMaximization

“Sleepat1am”

“WatchaMovieat1pm”Weeachhavebothofthesequalities.Bestusealwaysdependsoncontext.Usethemboth!Keepthebalance!?2004APoliticalPolarities:

Generativityvs.SustainabilityEvo-DevoTheoryBringsProcessBalancetoPoliticalDialogsonInnovationandSustainabilityDevelopmentalsustainabilitywithoutgenerativitycreatessterility,clonality,overdetermination,adaptiveweakness(e.g.,Maoism).Evolutionarygenerativitywithoutsustainabilitycreateschaos,entropy,adegradationthatisnotnaturalrecycling(e.g.,Anarchocapitalism).?2004AHumanMigrationPatternsand

LargeLandMammalExtinctionsGone:BisonFlightlessBirdsElephantsLionsMarsupialTigersEtc.Wedepletedtheeasiestfuelfirst.

Everywhere.

Likelyacomputationally

optimalstrategy.JaredDiamond,TheThirdChimpanzee,1994?2004ARiseandFallofComplexSocietiesMesopotamia,“CradleofCivilization”(ModernIraq:Assyrians,Babylonians,Sumerians)6000BC–500BC.Mineralsaltsfromrepeatedirrigation,nocroprotationdecimatedfarmingby2300BC).Fertilenomore.?2004ARiseandFall:NabateaPetra(Nabateans),400BC–400CE(Jordan:tradingexperts,progressivelywood-depletedoverirrigated,andovergrazed(hyraxburrows)JaredDiamond,TheThirdChimpanzee,1994RockHyrax(burrowsarevegetationtimecapsules)?2004ARiseandFall:AnasaziChacoCanyonandMesaVerde(Anasazi),800–1200CE(NewMexico,Colorado:trading,ceremonial,andindustryhubs,wooddepleted(100,000timbersusedinCCpueblos!),soildepleted(ChacoandMesaVerde).Nocroprotation.Unsupportablepop.fortheagrotech.CliffPalace,MesaVerde,COPuebloBonito,ChacoCanyon,NM?2004ADominantEmpireProgression-Combustion

(PhaseI:NearEast-to-West)BabylonianEgyptian(NewKingdom)Hellennistic(Alexander)RomanBritishSpanishFrenchAustriaGermany?2004ADominantEmpireProgression-Combustion

(PhaseII:West-to-FarEast)AmericanJapan(Temporary:Popdensity,Fewyouth,noresources.EastAsianTigers(TaiwanHongKongSouthKoreaSingapore)IndiaChinaExpectaSingapore-style“AutocraticCapitalist”

transition.Populationcontrol,plentifulresources,stunninggrowthrate,drive,andintellectualcapital.

U.S.sciencefairs:50,000highschoolkids/year.

Chinesesciencefairs:6,000,000kids/year.Fornow.BHR-1,2002?2004ASubtleLessons:

LifeCyclesofDominantCulturesEachcultureburnsthroughitsresourcebase(wood,farmland,population,naturalresources)asfastasitcan,creatingasmuchinnovationasitcan.Evencivilizationsgothroughgrowth,maturity,decline,andrenewal.Themorepowerfultechnologygets,thelesspainfulandenvironmentallyimpactfulthisnaturalrenewal/rebirthcycle.

(Example:Japandoesn’tcollapse,onlysuffersadecadeof

malaise,evenasitgetstechnologicallygreenereveryyear.)

KeyQuestion:Whyisacivilizationlifecycleapparentlytheoptimalevolutionarydevelopmentalstrategy?Assumption:We’veseenthispatternfortoolong,andintoomanycontexts,forittobesuboptimal.?2004ALifeCycles:FurtherThoughtsCompareandContrast:universes,stars,complexplanets,lifeforms,civilizations,cities,technologies,statesofmind.Themorecomplexasystembecomes,themoreMESTefficientandinformation-protectivethelifecycle.Considerspeciesextinctionvs.culturalextinction(anddigitalcapture).Whenwasthelasttimethedeathofalessadaptivethoughtinyourmindwasseenaswastefulordisruptive?StellarLifeCycle?2004ASimplicityandComplexityUniversalEvolutionary

Developmentis:SimpleattheBoundaries,ComplexInBetweenSimpleMathOftheVerySmall(BigBang,QuantumMechanics,Chemistry)SimpleMathOftheVeryLarge(ClassicalMechanics,GeneralRelativity)ComplexMathOftheInBetween(Chaos,Life,Humans,ComingTechnologies)IanStewart,WhatShapeisaSnowflake?,2001?2004AComplexsystems

areevolutionary.Simplesystems

aredevelopmental.Theuniverseispaintingcomplexlocalevolutionarypictures,onasimpleuniverse-widedevelopmentalscaffolding.Thepicture(canvas/intelligence,inthemiddle)ismathematicallycomplex(G?delianincomplete),andtrillionsoftimesevolutionarilyunique. Theframework(easel/cosmicstructure,verylarge,

&paint/physicallaws,MESTstructure,verysmall)

isuniform,andsimpletounderstand.TheMeaningofSimplicity

(Wigner’sladder)EvolutionDevelopmentNon-PatternPatternVarietyUniformitySymmetryandSupersymmetrySymmetryBreakingChaoticMathSimpleMath?2004AOurUniverseHasanEvolutionaryDevelopmentalPurposeThemorewestudythedualprocessesofEvo-Devo,thebetterwediscoverthesimplebackground,andcancreateacomplexforeground.TakeHomePoints:EvolutionaryvariationisgenerallyincreasingandbecomesmoreMESTefficientwithtimeandsubstrate.Development(inspecialsystems)isonanacceleratinglocaltrajectorytoanintelligentdestination.Humansarebothevolutionary&developmentalactors,creatingandcatalyzinganewsubstratetransition.Weneedbothadequateevolutionarygenerativity,(uniqueness)andadequatedevelopmentalsustainability(acceleratingnicheconstruction)inthisextraordinary