紫雪糕公司估值-康鴻、劉彬彬、宋楊、宋繼超、袁青、黃鵬

ESKIMO

PIE公司IPO估值

17,May2010AlltrademarksareownedbySociétédesProduitsNestléS.A.,Vevey,Switzerland.Forover80years,theESKIMO

PIE?brandhascombinedsimpleingredientstobringyoufrozensnacksyourfamilyloves.Itallstartedbackin1921,whenschoolteacherandlocalcandyshopownerChristianKentNelsonwasinspiredbyalittleboy’sinabilitytodecidebetweenicecreamandacandybar.And—Eureka!—theideaforESKIMO

PIE?frozensnackswasborn.Nelson’sbrilliantideatocombinethetwotreatswasmatchedbyhisgeniusfordiscoveringawayofmakingchocolatesticktothefrozensurfaceofanicecreambar.Therest,astheysay,ishistory.Andaverytastyoneatthat.Sincethen,theESKIMO

PIE?brandhasbeendelightingpeoplearoundtheglobewithdecidedlydeliciousfrozensnacks.Content1、Introduction2、公司IPO絕對(duì)估值3、相對(duì)估值4、Suggestion5、EndoftheEskimoPieStory附錄A股IPO估值方法、程序及案例估值方法差異及應(yīng)用IPO:initialpublicoffering1、DCF自由現(xiàn)金流估價(jià)模型我們嘗試使用公司自由現(xiàn)金流量折現(xiàn)得出的愛(ài)斯基摩派公司的獨(dú)立價(jià)值。

從圖表上看，1991年至1993年（此后，公司進(jìn)入了一個(gè)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)，1991-1993年高增長(zhǎng)，年均30%，1994-2001按6%年增長(zhǎng)，以后基本穩(wěn)定，長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)率假設(shè)為2%）指包括公司股東權(quán)益和債權(quán)人、股東等長(zhǎng)期利益相關(guān)者在內(nèi)的現(xiàn)金流總和

FCFF＝EBIT×（1－稅率）＋折舊－資本性支出－追加營(yíng)運(yùn)資本

計(jì)算WACC公司自由現(xiàn)金流FCFF

公司自由現(xiàn)金流FCFF

1991

1992

1993

EBIT5,255,000.005,873,000.005,363,000.005,682,000.00

稅率51.31%40.00%40.00%40.00%

EBIT*(1-稅率)2,558,621.823,524,043.673,217,598.553,409,200.00

加：折舊1,352,000.001,352,000.001,352,000.001,352,000.00

減：資本支出1,311,000.000.001,000,000.00500,000.00

加：營(yíng)運(yùn)資金的凈變動(dòng)1,386,000.000.000.000.00

FCFF3,985,621.824,876,043.673,569,598.554,261,200.00

非現(xiàn)金性流動(dòng)資本變化

流動(dòng)資本11,735,000.0011,735,000.0011,735,000.0011,735,000.00

非現(xiàn)金性流動(dòng)資本變化905,000.000.000.000.00

FCFF3階段模擬增長(zhǎng)估值第一階段1991E1992E1993E

FCFF4,876,043.673,569,598.554,261,200.00

第二階段1994E1995E1996E1997E1998E1999E2000E2001EFCFF4,516,872.004,787,884.325,075,157.385,379,666.825,702,446.836,044,593.646,407,269.266,791,705.42

FCFF估值現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)值（萬(wàn)元）價(jià)值百分比

第一階段10,929,486.0625.41%

第二階段17,617,931.3140.96%

第三階段（終值）14,467,620.7933.63%

企業(yè)價(jià)值A(chǔ)EV43,015,038.16100.00%

－凈債務(wù)2,000,000.00-4.65%

總股本價(jià)值41,015,038.1695.35%

股本（萬(wàn)股）3,316,000.00

每股價(jià)值（元）12.37

FCFF敏感性測(cè)試

敏感性測(cè)試

敏感性測(cè)試結(jié)果長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)率(g)

WACC1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%12.50%14.9615.2315.5315.8616.2316.6417.0917.6018.1813.00%14.3214.5614.8215.1115.4315.7816.1716.6117.1013.50%13.7313.9414.1714.4314.7015.0115.3515.7216.1414.00%13.1913.3713.5813.8014.0514.3114.6114.9315.2914.50%12.6912.8513.0413.2313.4513.6813.9414.2214.5315.00%12.2212.3712.5412.7112.9013.1113.3313.5813.8515.50%11.7911.9312.0712.2312.4012.5812.7812.9913.2316.00%11.3911.5211.6511.7811.9312.1012.2712.4612.6716.50%11.0211.1311.2511.3711.5111.6511.8011.9712.1617.00%10.6810.7710.8810.9911.1111.2411.3811.5311.6917.50%10.3510.4410.5310.6310.7410.8610.9811.1111.262、PE&PB估值1營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)凈利潤(rùn)賬面凈資產(chǎn)PB倍數(shù)權(quán)益市值PE倍數(shù)負(fù)債E/TMV權(quán)益加權(quán)貝塔資產(chǎn)加權(quán)貝塔本&吉利102000003700000263000004.211010000029.828000000.981.21霍爾37000000159000001131000004.753400000033.6443000000.921.41.29747600000卡洛琳374000008800000451000001.1514000005.8898000000.360.30.1115420000斯蒂夫39000001800000111000003.43740000020.831000000.922.52.3193500000河系食品46300000021950000013350000003.0400250000018.22829000000.9310.934002500000兔絲卷工業(yè)47200000255000001528000004.872880000028.601.0011.00728800000簡(jiǎn)單平均3.522.81.231.14加權(quán)平均3.219.91.05

紫雪糕公司

1991年凈利潤(rùn)3749000

1991年凈資產(chǎn)1468100014093000扣除股利，減少凈資產(chǎn)

價(jià)格PE簡(jiǎn)單平均25.7722.8加權(quán)平均22.4519.9

價(jià)格PB簡(jiǎn)單平均15.633.5加權(quán)平均14.373.2PE&PB估值2PE法發(fā)行價(jià)格25.7722.45特殊股利4.524.52每股總額30.2926.97外發(fā)股份數(shù)33160003316000權(quán)益價(jià)值85461807.674437811.77股利1498832014988320總計(jì)10045012889426132

1991年利潤(rùn)37490003749000隱含的PE倍數(shù)12.3814.15

里諾茲的收入

擁有股份27890002789000每股收入

每股價(jià)格25.7722.45特殊股利4.524.52每股總額30.2926.97持有總額8448594975213957PB法發(fā)行價(jià)格14.3715.63特殊股利4.524.52每股總額18.8920.15外發(fā)股份數(shù)33160003316000權(quán)益價(jià)值47653510.8751835227.02股利1498832014988320總計(jì)6264183166823547

1991年利潤(rùn)37490003749000隱含的PE倍數(shù)12.3814.15

里諾茲的收入

擁有股份27890002789000每股收入

每股價(jià)格14.3715.63特殊股利4.524.52每股總額18.8920.15持有總額5268638956203520估值結(jié)果匯總

估值結(jié)果匯總

估值方法估值結(jié)果估值區(qū)間FCFF12.3711.39－14.05PE24.1122.45－25.77PB15.0014.37－15.63Suggestion公司估值在11.39-25.77元之間。排除經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)下的價(jià)值中樞為11.39-14.05，目標(biāo)價(jià)格12.37元在市場(chǎng)向好時(shí)，根據(jù)PE法，價(jià)格區(qū)間在22.45-25.77，平均24元。根據(jù)上述估值預(yù)測(cè)，公司IPO價(jià)格12.37最低線，最高線24.11元，考慮給二級(jí)市場(chǎng)保留一定溢價(jià)以保障發(fā)行成功，價(jià)格平均為(12.37+24.11)/2=18元18元估值發(fā)行后公司市值5969萬(wàn)美元，發(fā)行費(fèi)用300萬(wàn)美元里諾茲公司取得價(jià)值及分紅收入共6280萬(wàn)美元雀巢報(bào)價(jià)6100，不相上下，原則上可以拒絕收購(gòu)。一是股票流動(dòng)性升值潛力，二是員工得以保全。發(fā)行價(jià)格18.00特殊股利4.52每股總額22.52外發(fā)股份數(shù)3316000權(quán)益價(jià)值59688000股利14988320總計(jì)74676320

里諾茲的收入擁有股份2789000每股收入

每股價(jià)格18.00特殊股利4.52每股總額22.52持有總額62808280SuggestedQuestions-雪糕公司

為什么雀巢想收購(gòu)雪糕公司?有潛在的整合效應(yīng)嗎（通過(guò)比較整合前后價(jià)值）?是否雪糕公司（收購(gòu)狀態(tài)）比作為獨(dú)立的公司價(jià)值更高?

答：雀巢以雪糕市場(chǎng)第一位目標(biāo)，具有百年口碑的EskimoPie是其重要的整合對(duì)象。對(duì)雀巢而言，全面的營(yíng)銷(xiāo)網(wǎng)絡(luò)和強(qiáng)大的資本背景，能迅速把EskimoPie推向全球，其價(jià)值遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于獨(dú)立的EskimoPie公司。小公司在市場(chǎng)上缺乏競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力和資本優(yōu)勢(shì)，常常會(huì)走向衰落。作為里諾茲的顧問(wèn),你會(huì)推薦賣(mài)給雀巢還是準(zhǔn)備IPO?答：我會(huì)建議先IPO,取得市場(chǎng)溢價(jià)和流動(dòng)性，合適時(shí)間再賣(mài)。另外，我建議增量發(fā)行，取得募集資金用于公司發(fā)展而不是存量發(fā)行，做股東的現(xiàn)金奶牛。這樣可能發(fā)展更快。EndoftheEskimoPieStory

Information

Address:

901MoorefieldParkDrive

Richmond,Virginia23236

U.S.A.

Telephone:(804)560-8400

Fax:(804)330-3537

Statistics:

PublicCompany

Incorporated:1922

Employees:185

Sales:$74.1million(1996)

StockExchanges:NASDAQ，1992EPIE

SICs:2024IceCreamandFrozenDesserts;6794PatentOwnersandLessors;2087FlavoringExtracts/Syrups,NotElsewhereClassified;2671PaperCoated/Laminated/Packaging

1992年1月,IPO成功InitialPublicOfferinginEarly1990sCitingadesiretoconcentrateonitscoremetalsbusinesses,ReynoldsputEskimoPieontheauctionblockin1991.WhennegotiationswithlongtimerivalNestléfailed,theparentelectedtolaunchaninitialpublicofferingofits84percentstakeinJanuary1992.(Coincidentally,EskimoPiefounderChristianNelsondiedthatsamespring.CEOClark（還是克拉克任CEO）toldWashingtonPost‘sJonathanGlaterthatthe98-year-old“hadanEskimoPieeveryday.”)Offeredat$17,thesharesquicklyrosetoover$20initsfirstdayoftrading.發(fā)行價(jià)17美元，當(dāng)天漲上20美元。Thecompanycelebratedits75thanniversaryin1996(創(chuàng)立75周年)withanimportantroleintheSmithsonianInstitution‘ssalutetofrozennovelties.Butthatyear’sfiscalresultswerenothingtocrowabout;anunusuallylong,coldspringhitEskimoPieespeciallyhard,helpingtoreducetheyear‘ssalesto$74.1million.（銷(xiāo)售下滑到7400萬(wàn)美元）Evenmoredevastatingwasa$2millionlossontheyear.Thestock’sperformancehasreflectedEskimoPie‘sanemicbottomline;sharestoppedoutatnearly$25in1992,droppingtoalowof$7.50inOctober1996beforereboundingsomewhatto$11inMay1997.（股價(jià)從最高點(diǎn)25美元跌到十月份的7.5美元低點(diǎn)，1997年5月前略有回升至11美元）ThesimmeringrivalrywithNestlécontinuedthroughoutthedecade（與雀巢最終競(jìng)爭(zhēng)了10年）.In1993,theSwitzerland-basedfoodjuggernautpurchasedtheHeathnamefromLeaf,Inc.andsubsequentlypulleditssmallerrival‘slicensetothecandybarbrand,therebyrobbingEskimoPieofmorethan10percentofsales.EskimoPiereturnedthefavorin1997,hiringDavidB.Kewer,anexecutivewithstrongexperienceintheicecreamindustry,awayfromNestléS.A.(1997更換了CEO，克拉克去職)Kewer'sstrategiesforthelate1990sincludedare-emphasisonthecompany'swell-recognizedandsomewhatneglectedcorebrand.Thesupportincludedaresumptionoftelevisionadvertisingbackedbya$3millionbudget.Marketingefforts,includingananimatedwebsitefeaturinggamesandcontests,weretargetedespeciallytoyoungsters.KeweralsohopedtocapitalizeonEskimoPie'sstrongrecognitionviaalicensingpushbeyondtheicecreamindustry,hintingthatlinesofbrandedsnackfoodsandclothingmightbeinthecompany'sfuture.EskimoPieSharePrice1992-99

Post-IPOPerformanceofEskimoEndoftheEskimoPieStoryOnNovember17,1998,anunsolicitedofferfromYogenFruzWorld-WideIncorporatedtoacquire100%ofEskimoPiefor$10.25persharewasrejectedbyEskimoPie’sBoard.1998年11月17日，YogenFruz以10.25美元每股價(jià)格全面要約收購(gòu)，私有化，但股東拒絕了。YogenFruzrespondedwitha$13conditionalofferonDecember2,1998,andtheBoardrequesteditsfinancialadvisorstoexaminethe“fullrangeofstrategiestoenhanceshareholdervalue”(p.13,1998AnnualReport).1998年12月2日，YogenFruz增加價(jià)格到13美元每股，股東同意了，EskimoPi被收購(gòu)。OnMay3,2000,thecompanyagreedtobeacquiredbyCoolBrands,YogenFruz’successor,for$10.25pershare.ShareholdersacceptedtheofferonSeptember6.2000年5月3日，CoolBrands向YogenFruz提出10.25美元全面收購(gòu)，YogenFruz于6月同意出售。2003年，雀巢28億美元收購(gòu)了德雷爾，成為僅次于聯(lián)合利華的全球第二大雪糕、冰激凌生產(chǎn)商。OnJanuary24,2007,CoolBrandsannouncedthesaleofitsEskimoPieandChipwichbrandstoDreyer‘sGrandIceCream,anindirectsubsidiaryofNestlé.[6]最終，2007年1月24日，CoolBrands將itsEskimoPieandChipwichbrands兩大品牌出售給雀巢控股的德雷爾公司雀巢出資28億美元成功購(gòu)德雷爾2003年，雀巢出資28億美元成功購(gòu)并美國(guó)第三大冰激凌企業(yè)德雷爾。NowthattheFederalTradeCommissionhasatlonglastgivenitsapprovaltoNestle'sacquisitionofDreyer'sGrandIceCream,someobserversaredeclaringCoolBrandsInternationalthebigwinnerinthedeal./CoolBrands+big+win