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MatthewBucklandGM:NewMedia,M&GOnlinefuturewebtrends
innovationseries2007withjimmywalesIMGSRC:Flickr資料PPT中國PPT資源網(wǎng)收集提供,版權(quán)歸原作者所有thethingaboutpredictions...IMGSRC:Flickr"Computersinthefuturemayweighnomorethan1.5tons."
PopularMechanics,forecastingtherelentlessmarchofscience,1949
"Ithinkthereisaworldmarketformaybefivecomputers."
ThomasWatson,chairmanofIBM,1943"640Koughttobeenoughforanybody."
BillGates,1981apocryphal
"Thereisnoreasonanyonewouldwantacomputerintheirhome."
KenOlson,president,chairmanandfounderofDigitalEquipmentCorp.,1977internet
connectivityDirtcheap,lighteningfast&“alwayson”internetComputerslight,dumbterminals:neednetconnectiontoworkMostapplicationsweb-basedforbestefficiencyIMGSRC:Flickralldigitaldeviceswillbeconnected&networkedFromyourcar,radio,phone,fridge...“alwayson”AnunconnecteddigitaldevicewillbeastrangethingWiMaxconnectedsunglasseswithvoicepromptedHUD?riseofthe
mobileinternetRapidimprovementsinconnectivity&screensMobiletobedominantplatformforconnectingtonetworldwideJapan:happenedalready(mostlysurfwebthroughphones)Voicecallspoweredbyinternet&SMS/Texts->IMCellphoneselectronicwallets&banks=mainmethodofpaymentCitizensvoteforfirsttimeinelectionsviamobilephones?riseofindividual
&entrepreneurOpensource=unprecedentedaccesstocode&applicationsCheaptocreatebusinessonline&makeownmediaTeenagerinbasementsameopp.asworkerinbigcompanyEXAMPLE:Newmobileoperatingsystem(Android)?stridesagainstdigitaldivideDevelopingworldjoinsdigitalecosystemviamobilephonesAlsobecomepartofeconomyviacellphonewalletMobilephonescheap&broadbandubiquitousIlliteracyissuesovercomebyvideo&audiostreamsCreatesnewareasofcollaborationandeducationalmostnoprivacy
onthewebYourdatawillbeoutthereItwillbeokbecauseeveryonewillbeinthesameboatSworkingserviceslikeFBtheriseofthe
virtualuniverseVirtualworldslikeSecondlifegomainstreamCometoforeasgraphiccards&broadbandimprovePotentiallyavisualalternativetotheworldwidewebStandards:differentworldsconnecttoeachotherseamlesslyVirtualcoupd’etatbySLcitizens?LindenLabscedesSLtodemocraticallyelectedvirtualgovtinformationpollution&overloadNextbigchallengeishowtomanagemassesofinformationPeoplewillcomplainabout"digitalfatigue“&digitalnoiseFocusondevelopingfilters&aggregators“Switch-off"holidaysregularlyprescribedbyyourdoctorRiseofanti-digitalmovementsurging“getbacktobasics”Inresponsetoclutter,asecondworldwidewebannouncedmoregoogles
&facebooksGoogle&FacebookfinallygetgoodcompetitionMicrosoftreleasesOScodeandgoesopensourceMSmakesrevenuebysellingadvertising&givingsupportAdvertisingismainbus.model(connectingsellers&buyers)FacebookbecomesavirtualOS/desktop,withMSinfluencedeclineofthe
nationstate?Govthaslessinfluence&controlthaneverbeforeTechnologiesthreatenexistingpower&economicrelationshipsAlso:musicindustryhasresisteddigitalaudioandNapsterButoppressiveregimesclampdownoninternetSomecountriesregressintodarkages
...andmedia?mediadistribution
&productionAllmediaeventuallydeliveredviainternetHardlyanyspecialistprint,tv,radiomediacompaniesleftAllfullyconverged,broadcasting&publishingviathenetMediaonmanydigitalplatformsMEDIAMEDIA
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fragmentedmediaenvironmentNon-mediaplayersbecomedefactomediacompaniesMediaworldfilledwithnewcompetitorsCellphoneoperators,handsetmakers->mediacompaniesVodacomstopaggregating,startproducingowncontentOperatorsalreadybigmediacompanies(Voda:1,4musers)Battlebetweenmedia&cellphonecompaniesloomingMEDIAMEDIA
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noweveryoneisamediaplayerBarriertoentrydropsevenmoredramaticallyRiseofthereaderandtheconsumerReaders:publishers,broadcasters:competitors&collaboratorsSmall,convergedmediachallengemediaconglomeratesMEDIAMEDIA
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roleofmediachangesAlsocontentaggregators,facilitatorsBusinessmodel:captureaudienceviaallmeansMediacompanieslooktoownchannels:dealsforownphones?Contentportals->webapplications&servicesSocialnetworksaswellascontenthubsMEDIAMEDIA
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isthisthe
endofprint?Books,newspapersmagazines...Readonflexibledigitalboards,alwaysconnectedWebsites&digitalnewspapersbecome“samething”Newspaperssmaller&niched,butnotextinctNewspapersbecomeexpensive,luxuryitemsAlifestyleitem:buyingan“experience”,partof“offtime”MEDIAMEDIA
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IMGSRC:WANN...otherdevelopmentsothertrendsfor
now&thefutureSemanticwebentrenchedArtificialintelligenceAttentioneconomyinfullswingSophisticatedpersonalisationofcontentLocation-based/mappingservicescommon&mobileVirtualisationeg:Amazon’sEC2&S3servicesWeb14.0???...;-)SRC:ReadWrite/Web,JaxonRice,MyblogForgetcapitalismandtheclassstruggle...thedigitalrevolutionischangingthingsfarmoredramaticallythanthehypemongerseverimagined...themov
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