LBO投資收益測(cè)算過程

第一部分：確定投資資金的結(jié)構(gòu)一、近3年一期損益表，并預(yù)測(cè)近一期的完整年度損益表；現(xiàn)時(shí)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表；IncomeStatementCashandCashEquivalentsA&counts-ReceivableICashandCashEquivalentsA&counts-ReceivableInvenioriesPrepaidsand□iher-CurreniA=3Et=TotalCurrentAssetsProperty,PlantandEquipment,netGoodwillandIntangibleAsOtherAssetsDeferredFinancingFeesTotalAssetAckoLintsFay51bl壬Ac=cru^edLisbililiesOtherCumentLiabjliti^sTotalCurrentLiabilitiesRevolvingCreditF.acilityTermLoanATermLosnBTermLosnCExistingTermLoan2ndLienSeniorNtotes■Senicii*SubordinatedNotesOtherDebi■OtherLqng-TfirmLisbilliitiesTotalLiabilitiesM&ncDntnalliiEngInterestStiBi陪held叁百EquityTotalShiDlcfers1EquitTotalLijbiliti?&^ndEquityBa/ajiceQfieck□penimg2OI1￡825.a:1-65.D!125.D；1口也5325.0：65D.D：175.D：75.D：SI戶5苴75.D：1DD,5：二5?S2DD.D；3D3.325節(jié)5525.071口.口1S7DD.D；一§1戶5.D；Q.DQDHistuhuHlVaried20052D0B2007LTM以352008Proforma2005SalesS79D.fi5&60.0$025,0S&77.8StODO.O%growthNA9.0%3.8%NA■3.1%CostofGoodsSod4719512.15前a58676D00GrossProfitS3OB.15M37.9SM似S391.11400.09Sma/gi/i39.5%39.碗40.0%40.0%40.G%Selling.GeneralSAdministratis19B.9214.6231.3244.4250.0%sales25J%25.3%250%25.0%25G%OlherExpense/(InoDme)EBITDA$109,2$123.3S13BS5146.7$151.0%m刖gin14.0%14.5%15.0%15.0%15.G%□epreciaticn&Amortizationnse1701B519620.0AmcrtiwalienEBIT$106.3512D.3S177.1$134jO%margin120%12.5%13.0%13.0%13.0%NetVWbridngCspitsl r1€0.0(Increase)JDeaegseinMet5fo南n電-Cspiti、計(jì)算購(gòu)買價(jià)格及估值比率PurchasePricePublic/PrivateTarget7.5x146J7.5x146J$1,100.0(300.0)LTM9/30/2008EBRDAEnterpriseValueLess:TotalDebtLess:PreferredSecuntiesLess:NoncontrollingInterestPlus:CashandCashEquivalentsEquityPurchasePrice根據(jù)投資時(shí)的EBITDA146.7（損益表）及假設(shè)的估值/EBITDA倍數(shù)7.5倍，計(jì)算確定標(biāo)的收購(gòu)價(jià)格=146.7*7.5=1100；現(xiàn)時(shí)需要償還的有息借款300（資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表）、現(xiàn)金25（資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表），標(biāo)的現(xiàn)金償還有息負(fù)債后剩余275有息負(fù)債；公司股權(quán)價(jià)值=1100-275=825。PunnlimsePr.ci已OfferPricep■白rShar^FullyDilutedSharesEquityPurchasePricePlus:ExistingNetOetotEiiteipriseValuerM6.5050□S-825.O2750T-nMiultl—nMmlti口IeyEnte-rpristsVa1ue/Sal日石LTM9/30/2口口W 曬7T& 12006E 1s000?0 1,1菖EnterpriseValuefEBITDALTM9/30/2006$146.77.5x2QQ0E15D.□7.3k根據(jù)購(gòu)買價(jià)格及現(xiàn)時(shí)銷售額、EBITDA計(jì)算市銷率和市值/EBITDA比。三、設(shè)計(jì)投資資金結(jié)構(gòu)與truutLirEFindncin口寫tnjEurc512345與onerfFmnd%&tiruchj「d1與tnuEurc3Etiruchjrp4StHtusRjewhingCredrtFacilitySizeSIDOQjiaadliaoasido.aRavdMngCreditFacilityDraw25.0TermLoanA125DTermLoanB450Q350D35D.Q425aTermLoanC2ndLienSeniorNotes15D.QSeniorSubordnstedNotes3DOQ300D25D.Q325.0EquityCisitnbulicn3B5Q36DD305a4ioa2DDRolloverEcpityCashonHand250250::TotalSourcieao-fFunds$1imn劭ironi&n口$1，府inQnnUse5口1FundsEquityPurchasePrice5B25QJB25DJB25.DW5.aRepayExisling曰臼n*D&bt?口口Q300D30D.a3D0.QTenderrCallPremiumsFinancingFees2Da20D2D.Q2D.a20D一150'15D15.015.a-TotalUsesofFunds鈉/1血口，qiRnnmisnn$1isnnQnn確定各類舉債金額（structure1中450、300，注意100是循環(huán)信用額度，類似授信總額，不

使用無(wú)金額借入，但有手續(xù)費(fèi)）及手續(xù)費(fèi)（20結(jié)構(gòu)化私募基金中為各類優(yōu)先級(jí)份額/LP的資金金額及手續(xù)費(fèi)），預(yù)計(jì)其他費(fèi)用（15）；據(jù)前文已得股權(quán)價(jià)格825、有息負(fù)債300、標(biāo)的賬上現(xiàn)金25,算出需要自有投入的資本數(shù)額（基金中的劣后級(jí)或GP份額）=（825+300+20+15）-（450+300+25）=385，杠桿率為385：（450+300）=1:1.95。手續(xù)費(fèi)計(jì)算如下：FinancjnqF口口宕R■一Suuctura11Size忸國(guó)R白CrecitFacilitySiz?S1CD.01.750%租8TermLeanA1.75D%TermLoanB45D.01.75D%7.9TermLoanC—2ndUcmSeniorNotos2.25D%SeniorSubordinatedNbtBS30D.02.25D%63Senior日幽匕Facility1.000%SeniorSubordinatedBridgeFacility30D.01.00D%3.0OtherFinancingFeea&Expenses0.6TotalFinancinnFees$20.0將上述舉債費(fèi)用按假定的借款年限攤銷（利潤(rùn)表及資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)需要使用）：|MFinnHni]Fea |VuiFI *mt7 3 ,打， ITw9 i**irGi TflnrJ .furE YdarS Yiu11am ,i￡￡3 iLO _iiu 1112 2U JOn 2U ^Bh 21114 *3 5J3 903- 3d3 U： El2 - - - -"?n.ailBT 11 11 11 1.1 l.! 1! 1' - - -2adLtaiSariix工描i: a? o.r D.r c.r r.r r.r i.r it j.t qj沿卬和責(zé)：Eg匕UX之IfdlEd曰FUFBaiFf1： 必 心 口J G ：.2 ：-.i 11 匕 羽SlitkjFJUACi^F-HL1Ea&MLMAmrtiEilipn■i: :■ :?■ :?■ :■ :■ :■ :■ :■ :■ ■:■￡LS SE — — 6 3 ―*EF*aas 45 42 t.3 C.2 ft *5 髓 +2 外四、完成SourcesofFunds\UsesofFunds表并和簽署已做PurchasePrice\TransactionMultiples表合并：Tr揖曲nNummaryScii FunriIH" Fun--Mu出口出口：EBTDAAirflowammi■二uinii備，1丫岳FfKinq■AmRavchingCrtdtF畝亡i"-y-J￡L田2507111KTemiLiMnA-%-X明的口對(duì)BilSi：吶［W3W0?5WTerniLianB45C-0—31s3dML+3W&P5TenderGfilRiKrtun5■%TermLoanD-%-X3dge明RnanchgFces20D1個(gè)ZndLien-%-K工1宜NAOlherretsarriEsperses-”.口1鄧SencrNotes-m-X明StncrSutordinitedNntH3OC-.D25.M2DCB.1I1ODQC4EquiyLorrintiJtaDn3SB.D33.2*2ExT.TiRdkx1ei日嗚-M-KT.TkCi^honHard口段口2.3"4_口雙7■.血T&hJJ5nurr*<tijen.n100則7JhfJKTnim“1W0Shi*Fv—一iAAfTk TKV口修■a8（?颯鵬 ［啤要?Anns SoitfssCu.uiiM Rjom. juncurt UmDuSasmi?f fiQqftvcbripQadiFieNj-- -U -x-a37St”n.ithiia SUED ?l.l%E4ie￥AiidiaiBPnci !Em.lT-btiLnnA-1 ■X-a % n^xifjEcBtaiglMd Kffl5 ：!9KAn,bnlvvWi* JTE,T?nLnn&-CC'D 工111 l.lx31iL-mt.TiiyIhi-ChlF￥nra. - -%ErarpnaaV^ia lldOOT?nLnnC-1 -KhM FnnovFw 拍口 1WWlLm-U -s31■ r護(hù) R?184 I*TlAiiHhFrni.”11?1bhM- -1 -Kin泗B^ierpfheViht?ScmahoHa?-W.0 孤“ IjOk反H MDHylTUMK燉& 即7| 1,IK匕牛卻C-crM>lKnS=D 33ZU gT.JjiMDUE 1fxn.c l.faREtoll-U -KThErriirprniVakil'EBlDhCiihonHmd”口 7：!f 口NT&rLTU*y際四 SI457 7J5zToni幼帽.*M.ieijQ 1MJJ%T.h __Tum- MklMrl mLH2ttlE 3? ?Jx第二部分：預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)五、損益表和現(xiàn)金流量表預(yù)測(cè)前提假設(shè)條件（一）銷售收入：假設(shè)各年的銷售收入增長(zhǎng)率,一般發(fā)展穩(wěn)定后銷售收入增長(zhǎng)趨緩：Pit白帕口tionPEriodYear12QQBYear2201aYear32011￥?ar42015Year52QUYear?2014Year?2015Year8Year92Q1ZYtar102013ncomeStateimentAssumptions□al?(%growth}e.a%G.0%4.0%3.0%對(duì)先ID%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Base19.0%60%40%30%3.0%10%ID%3冊(cè)：3.0%Sponsor210.0%8.0%GO%40%30%3.%10%他3.於3.0%Management312.CP%10.0%SO%60%40%40%40%4.0%4.0%4.(mDownsrde145.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3口K國(guó)口K3.0%3.0%3.?iiDownside-252.0%2.0%20%20%20%ZD%20%2.0%2.0%2.0*%

（二）成本：成本以銷售收入為基礎(chǔ)，假設(shè)成本占銷售收入的百分比：CMtofGoodsSold600%60.0%60.0%600%600%60.0%00.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%Base160.0%6c00.0%GO口吃《口睜60.0%60.0%600%600%60.0%Sponsor.1駝0%酊%SG.O%80口就即時(shí)60.0%60.0%600%600%60.0%Management3油削：68.0%53豚59.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%59JD%590%&9.0%Downsrde1461.0%6工酰&1.0%61.0%610%B1.0%61X)%B1D%BtO%Downstde2562.0%620%62.崎620%620%020%盟.戰(zhàn)020%62.0%&2.0%（三）SG&A（國(guó)內(nèi)為銷售費(fèi)用和管理費(fèi)用）：假設(shè)占銷售收入的百分比:SO鼬(%sales)2500%25.0%250%25.G%25D%25.0%250%25.0%25.0%25.0%Bsbb125.崛拈.0%25.0%25326.0%250%25D%25.0%25.0%25.0%Sponsor225.0%25姆250%蔚.0%250%25.0%25l0%25L0K25.0%ktanagefnent324.0%24.0%240%24.0%240%24.0%24.0%24.0%24.0%24.0%Downsidei426.0%25.0%250%25眸250%25.0%250%25.0%25.13%35.0%Down&ide2527.0%260拓29.0%翁映26.0%2G0%2&D%26.0%2G.G%200%（四）折舊和攤銷：假設(shè)占銷售收入的百分比：Depreciation&AmoriizatianDepreciation&Amoriizatian(%與ate與｝BaseSponsorMan鄧menrDownside1□?nside22.0%2.0%20%2M2.0W2.0%2D%2.0%2D%2.0%2.筋20%20%20%2.0%2.0%20%2.0%20%2.0%2.眥20%20%20%2.0%2.0%20%2.0%20%2.0%2%2口呢20%20%2.0%2.0%20%20%20%2.0%2%20%2口先20%2.0%2.0%20%2.0%20%20%2.0%10%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%20%2.0%2D%2.0%5（五）利息收入：假設(shè)占現(xiàn)金（根據(jù)后續(xù)預(yù)測(cè)的現(xiàn)金流量表中的相鄰2年現(xiàn)金平均數(shù)）的百分比（即1年期利率？）：IrtefestIncomeBaseSponscwManagementIrtefestIncomeBaseSponscwManagement□?nside1DoiivniSHje23.0%3.G%MCI%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%30%3.0%30%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.(m3.0%SO%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%JO%3.0%3.酰3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3眥3.0%3.0%a.o%30%3哪3.0%w%3.0%3310%3M333.(m3.0%3D%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0^630%3.0%3.腦a.o%3.0%10%3.雄3.0%（六）現(xiàn)金流量表中資本化支出：假設(shè)占銷售收入的比率CashFl&^StsrteinwmAssumptionsespialE^endiures(%（六）現(xiàn)金流量表中資本化支出：假設(shè)占銷售收入的比率CashFl&^StsrteinwmAssumptionsespialE^endiures(%sales)BaseSponsorManageinemDownside1Downside22.0%2.0%2.G%2D%2.0%2.fl%2。%2.0%2.9%20%20%2.0%2.0%2D%2.0%2.0%JO%2.0%2.0%20%Z0%2.0%2.0%ZO%2.0%2JF%20%2.0%2.0%2D%ZD%2.0%2.0%10%2.0%2.0%ZO%2.0%2.0%20%25%2.5%2.5%25%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.6%2.5%25%25%2.5%2.5%25%2.5%2.5%25%2.5%2.5%25%2六、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表預(yù)測(cè)前提假設(shè)條件（一）應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)：假設(shè)應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)，應(yīng)收賬款=銷售收入/365*應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)PnpjectiiQriPeiriiiodYearl Year2 Year3 Year4YearS Ytar6 Year? Years YearS Year10MD& 2010 2011 Q2a13 2QU 2315 MIS 2017 —六、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表預(yù)測(cè)前提假設(shè)條件（一）應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)：假設(shè)應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)，應(yīng)收賬款=銷售收入/365*應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)PnpjectiiQriPeiriiiodYearl Year2 Year3 Year4YearS Ytar6 Year? Years YearS Year10MD& 2010 2011 Q2a13 2QU 2315 MIS 2017 —Ccirrer?fEssersDaysSalesOulstanding（DSO）BaseSponsorManagementDownside1Downside2602 60.2 60.2 60.2 60.2602 60.2 602 60.2 60.222.0Q7口口5.9766655.2.29.0,7

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600006.5957（二）存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)：假設(shè)存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)，存貨=成本/365*存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)l'ajftInventoryHeki(DIH)7&07607&07&076076.07&076.076.0760Base1T6D76D7BD76D7BD76.GTED76076.07BDSponsor27&.07&.07&.07&.07&.076.&7&.076.076.G7&.0Lfenegememt376076076076076076.G76076.07S.0760Dnwn&ide14即□SO08口080□SODSO.Q80D30.03Q.080DDownside25azo8Z08Z0azo8Z0B2.G82.062.0B2.0S2.0（三）預(yù)付款項(xiàng)：假設(shè)占銷售收入的百分比：

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6.57￡n44444（五）應(yīng)計(jì)債務(wù)：假設(shè)占銷售收入的百分比AccruedLiabWes(%sales)10.0%10.0^100%1G.G%1G.G%io.cm100%100%10.0%100%Base110.0%10.0%110.0%1O.?%10.0%w.o%1DD%100%10.0%1DD%Sponsor210.0%10.0%10.0^1他戰(zhàn)10.0%mi睡IDD%100%10.0%IDD%Management310.0%10.0%m酷10.(1%10.0%1Q.G%IDD%100%1Q.G%ID口呢Downside14I。；收10.0K10.映1口.0%1O.(rt4他嘛100%100%10.(^100%Downside2&10.0%10.0%10.0^6w.(m10.0^&10.0%1D.0%10.0%iQ.CWti10.0%（六）其他流動(dòng)負(fù)債：假設(shè)占銷售收入的百分比OtherCunrentLiabilrfes(%sales)BaseOtherCunrentLiabilrfes(%sales)BaseSpam5OfManagemeMDoiivmide1Downsides2.5%2.5%2.5%25%2.5%25%2.5%25%25%2.5%2.5%2%15%2.5542.5%25%2.5%25%25%2.5%26%2.5%15%2.5542.5%25%2.5%25%25%2.5%25%25%25%2.5%2.5%2.S%之魂215%2.$%之映25%25%25%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%25%2.5%2.5%注5吃25%25%2.5%2.5%25%2.5%25%25%2.5%245七、利潤(rùn)表預(yù)測(cè)（收入、債表做出后才能做）成本EBIT部分，凈利潤(rùn)部分需要扣減的財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用，即利息，得還七、利潤(rùn)表預(yù)測(cè)（收入、債表做出后才能做）P［口］日汕"111LIUProfarmaYear1Year2YearSYeardYear6Zfllfl加12Q11ZB13Sales$9773^1,000.0ti.aaao51,144.8必；出.331,2611%growgNA0.?%?CW6.晚筆跋5.M3.。特CastofGmdsSod印匾T 1000SABO￡臟為714』7班;E7E7QGrosaProfit￡391?1$4(K),Q$432。$457,9$474,2349Q.5$5g之%ES倍而航皿4D口％的口找初蟀40.0%40魄400%5eling.GeneralScAdnilnlstratv244.425D.D270.02隨.229np.63G6.8315.3%qwtes25.拒喀250旅25.0%25魄25口拓OtherExpense/(hcome)ffiTTOA5.146.7以BO.O期6?.口J171.7I17S.6制830%q加?河13.0%15.0%?5.tM613尊T5.05&但"CeprecistionSiArnortizationAmortization1且盲 2U022g2"25二53_MTm$130.0t1414$14￡,1554a(194到64?%wwg面13.0%13.0^］3.晚73.徐73.㈱13.0%M&rasfEcp&nsoRerolvir^GBClitFacllfiy-TermLoanA--TennLoanE29.327.S25.322.11S.614.5TermLoanC--E&tingTermLoan--2ndLienr--SeniorNotes--SeniorSjhordnat&dNoles30.D3C.030.03D.D3C.0commilrrentFeeonUnusedR50.5050.S0.5D.505Adrmn&trsatki'eAgentFe=CashInterestExpense H2_凸20.2?553.9林國(guó)5555.9S5Z.TM3.214&Z紅框內(nèi)為利息支出，需要其他表格（還貸計(jì)劃表中的利息支出等）數(shù)據(jù)，暫不考慮；銷售收入、成本、銷售管理費(fèi)用、折舊及攤銷等按照簽署假設(shè)填入。八、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表預(yù)測(cè)

（一）由于投資基準(zhǔn)日不是完整會(huì)計(jì)年度（例子中是2008年9月30日），所以需要對(duì)930資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表按照投資后調(diào)整，億預(yù)測(cè)2008年年度資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。2-3 : 1 =—CashandCashEquivalents$25.0C25.0)AccountsReceivable165.0165.0173.2Inventories125.0125.0135.0PrepaidsandOtherCurrentAsseis10.010.010.STotalCurrentAssets$325.0$300.0$324.0Property,PlantandEquipment,net650.0650.0650.0GoodwillandIntangibleAsa日175.0125.0300.0300.0OtherAssets75.075.075.0DeferredFinancingFees20.020.017.5TotalAssets型口$1,345.0J1.366.5AccountsPayable75.075.081.0AccruedLiabilities100.0100.0103.0OtherCurrentLiabilities25.025.027.0TotalCurr-entLiabilities$200,0$200.0$216。RevolvingCreditFacilityTermLaanA■TermLoanB450.0450.0406.3TermLoanCExistingTermLoan300.0(300.0i2ndLienSeniorNote5一SeniorSubordinatedNotes300.0300.0300.0OtherDebti nOtherLong-TermLiabilities25.025.025.0TotalLiabilities$525.0$9X5.0$947.3NancontrollingInterest-Shareholders'Equity700.0370.0 (ZOO.O'l370.0419.3TotalShareholders'Equity$7QQQ$370.0$419,3TotalLiabilitiesandEquity一$L225,D-JI.345.0-J1.366.5CashandCashEquivalents：標(biāo)的賬上現(xiàn)金25會(huì)支出使用（用于還債？）GoodwillandIntangibleAssets：商譽(yù)及無(wú)形資產(chǎn)增加125,因?yàn)楣蓹?quán)收購(gòu)價(jià)格825相對(duì)于標(biāo)的凈資產(chǎn)700的溢價(jià)125計(jì)入商譽(yù)及無(wú)形資產(chǎn)。DeferredFinancingFees：遞延融資費(fèi)用，投舉債在所花的融資費(fèi)用20TermLoanB：投資舉債，標(biāo)的增加450借款ExistingTerm1。3門：已存在的有息負(fù)債300會(huì)在投資后還掉SeniorSubordinatedNotes：投資舉債，標(biāo)的增加300借款Shareholders'Equity：投資中股權(quán)資本385,扣減其他費(fèi)用15后，標(biāo)的所有者權(quán)益增加370；標(biāo)的所有者權(quán)益因老股東撤資減少700（暫時(shí)按國(guó)內(nèi)減資理解）：

1 ;3caij「c幅呂ofFunds$trijc：tijr?之〔Revob'ngCrecitFacilitySizeS100.0：RevorvngGreenFacilityDrawTermLoanATermLaanB450.0：TermLoanC2ndLienSsniorNotasSeniorSubordinatedNotes300.0：EquityContribution3B5,0[RolloverEquityCashonHand25.0：TotalSourcesofFunds」EDQi:.LJisgisFundHEquityPurchasePriceS825.0：RepayExistingBankDebt300.0：Tender/CallRemiuimsFinanchgFees20.0：I1&口:dm叮蛆m:（二）資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表預(yù)測(cè)標(biāo)的調(diào)整后的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表如圖紅框：Opening201tsAdjustnnentsProForma200BYear1CashandCashEquivalentss^s.o整ED)AccQtnbFieceivable165.Q165.Q175.2IrrventoriM12E.0125.0135.0Frepa.idsandOtherCurrentAssels1口口1口口10.BTetalCurrentAssets.$325d?13-00.0小史4」Property：AantandEquipment,net650.0&5C.0650.0GoodwillandIntangibleAssets175.0125.03C0.0300.0OtherAssets75.D75.0750DeferredFinancingFeas20.0如口什5Tot-alAssetM345.0幼MS6,EAccotntsPayable75.075.0B1.0AccruedLiabilities100.0100.01D8.0OtherCurrentLiabilities歷口27.0Tot=allCurrentLiabilities^209.0S2DCU0(216.0RevofvingCreditFacilityTermLaanATermLoanB450.0450.0406.3TermLaanCExistingTermLoan34X5,C(300.0)2ndLienSeniorNortecSeniorSubordinatedNotas300.03C0.0300.0OtherDebtOtherLong-TermLiabilities25口25.口25.0TotalLiabilities黏國(guó)白J&75,ONonGontrollinqInterestSh昆「mhHchrg.曲uitv70口.口370.0 (700.0)37BD419.3TotalStiareholders'Equity$700。$3-70,0S4193TotalLiabilrtiesandEquity未來(lái)幾年的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表預(yù)測(cè)如下：

BalanceSheetOpening噌8AdjLiatmentsPmFwmizo咄Year1Year2卻I0CashandCashEquivalents二5。I (25.C)AccountsReceivable165.0165.0178.21BBSliwenrtories125.0125UC135.01-13.1PrepaidsandOtherCurrentAssetsdO.OdC.O-10.3■11』TatalCurrentAssets(325.0S3OL0^324.0JJ43.4Property：PlantandEquipment：nei650.065D.0650.0650.0GoodwillandIntangibleAsset175.0125.C300.0300.0300.0OtherAssets75.075.1075.075.0DeferredFinancingFees20.0如D17.E舊TotalAssei335.0H345.0AccountsPayable75.075.0B1.0小AccruedLiabilities100.0100.0WB.0114.5OtherCurrentLiabilities2EE如向TotalCurrentLiabilities1200.01200.0SMGUO我世。RevolvingCreditFacilityTermLoanATermLoanB450.04￡00406.3354.2TermLoanCBiistinglermLoan3C0,C{3C0.D}2ndLienSeniorNotasSeniorSubordinatedNates部0冉300JC3WJ0OtherDebtOtherLong-TermLiabilities25.02S.025.0TotalLiabilities$525,01975.0S&47.3$9OS_2NanccntrollingInterest-Shareholders'Equity700.0370.0 (TOO.；■)37C.0419.3475nTotallShareholders'Equi'$700.01370.05419.35475.3TotalLiabilitiesandEquity225.0-3C6.5CashandCashEquivalents：現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價(jià)物，需要現(xiàn)金流量表數(shù)據(jù)，攢擱置。AccountsReceivable：應(yīng)收賬款，=收入/365*應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)（之前假設(shè)數(shù)據(jù)）。Inventories：存貨，=成本/365*存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)。PrepaidsandOtherCurrentAssets：預(yù)付賬款，=成本/365*預(yù)付賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)。Property,PlantandEquipment,net：固定資產(chǎn)（查不到，瞎理解-，-），=上一年固定資產(chǎn)-折舊+資本化支出（折舊和資本化支出在損益表和現(xiàn)金流量表都有，是在損益表中按照收入及假設(shè)的比例來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)的數(shù)值）。GoodwillandIntangibleAssets：商譽(yù)和無(wú)形資產(chǎn)，=上年值-攤銷（本例中該項(xiàng)目攤銷假設(shè)0）。OtherAssets：其他長(zhǎng)期資產(chǎn)，假設(shè)保持不變。DeferredFinancingFees：融資費(fèi)用，=上年值-攤銷（該項(xiàng)目攤銷在“第一步-三”已計(jì)算）。AccountsPayable：應(yīng)付賬款，=成本/365*應(yīng)付賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)。AccruedLiabilities：應(yīng)計(jì)負(fù)債，根據(jù)占收入比例計(jì)算。OtherCurrentLiabilities：其他流動(dòng)負(fù)債，根據(jù)占收入比例計(jì)算。Shareholders'Equity：所有者權(quán)益，=上年值+上年凈利潤(rùn)（三）循環(huán)引用補(bǔ)全相關(guān)表格Rev口卜ngCrediFacityTermLoanATermLoanB4600450.D皿33&s2594fi22ff915"flfl7TenriLaanC-口GbrgTcnnLoan(3W0J2ndUenSflHCT口期的Effinor網(wǎng)hcrdrfllEiEdMotas3W.03?.口3KL口3KLe融町加心口3O3-.D3CC.CCHherDeM-■Olhei-Long-TermLfetili的2氏d25■口,25.0lotalLhdbilii^aSG25J0:W7&J)UH7.3鼻峻.21BG7.7S.75&.2S735.&如上圖，負(fù)債需要循環(huán)引用：

初始負(fù)債=450，以下為確定年初負(fù)債的過程（年初負(fù)債為待求解未知數(shù)）：年初負(fù)債=上年負(fù)債-還本數(shù)額還本數(shù)額=min（年初負(fù)債，可用凈現(xiàn)金流）；年末負(fù)債=年初負(fù)債-還本數(shù)額可用凈現(xiàn)金流=凈利潤(rùn)【相關(guān)】?jī)衾麧?rùn)=EBIT-利息=EBIT-average（年初負(fù)債，年末負(fù)債）*利率=EBIT-average（年初負(fù)債，（年初負(fù)債-還本數(shù)額））*利率=EBIT-average（年初負(fù)債，（年初負(fù)債-min（年初負(fù)債，可用凈現(xiàn)金流）））*利率=EBIT-average（年初負(fù)債，（年初負(fù)債-min（年初負(fù)債，凈利潤(rùn)【相關(guān)】）））*利率以上計(jì)算過程可見，年初負(fù)債的求解需要年初負(fù)債本身，也需要凈利潤(rùn)，而凈利潤(rùn)的計(jì)算需要凈利潤(rùn)本身，也需要年初負(fù)債，存在2層循環(huán)引用，在Excel中開啟即可：Microsoftoffice：視圖視圖編輯常規(guī)與保存重新計(jì)算自定義序列顏色錯(cuò)誤檢查拼寫益宣安全性快速訪問工具欄WPSoffice：想選項(xiàng)重新計(jì)算 號(hào)自動(dòng)重算㈤ 手動(dòng)重茸蚓回停存工作簿前至新計(jì)筲用i□迭代計(jì)算（I）最多迭代次數(shù)位）.100最大誤差￡〕： 口口口1工作簿這項(xiàng) 以顯示精度為準(zhǔn)（P）使用1304日期系統(tǒng)W）按照上述思路，以負(fù)債作為開端，利用公式的循環(huán)引用，可以填寫完成所資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表、損益表、現(xiàn)金流量表、償債計(jì)劃表，投資回報(bào)分析表最后再說(shuō)，下面描述現(xiàn)金流量表補(bǔ)全過程中的注意事項(xiàng)：

九、現(xiàn)金流量表補(bǔ)全注意問題上文分析得現(xiàn)金流量表中的凈現(xiàn)金流為凈利潤(rùn)【相關(guān)】，即現(xiàn)金流包括經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)、投資活動(dòng)、融資活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流，其中：投資活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流：歷產(chǎn)白蠟口gCapitalExpendtures i21B) (22.9) (23.8) \2i5) (25.3)OtherlnvestingActivities I [ z ： ： ： _一Ca曲iFlowfromInvestingActivilieg t$2L&I$22⑼t$238]t$24,5)I$253}如上圖，投資活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流主要是資本化支出，資本化支出是按照銷售收入的假設(shè)百分比計(jì)算。融資活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流：融資活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流為各項(xiàng)有息負(fù)債的年末年初余額差，即還本金額(案例里的利息費(fèi)用貌似算到經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)里了，在計(jì)算凈利潤(rùn)時(shí)把利息減掉了，所以利息對(duì)現(xiàn)金流的影響在經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流中體現(xiàn))，如下圖：FrnancingActivitiesReralwingCrediFacilityTermLoanATermLoanB1 (43T'l解.口J(59.6)御7)TermLoanCExistingTermLoan2ndLien-SeniorNuteaSeniorSubordinatedNolesOtherDebtD^dendsEquityIssuance/(Repurchase1Ca%FlowfromFinancingActfvitieiIMTW—1552.0]t559.fi)reri.itIW7.2)經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流：CashFlowStatemtntChan5e5fnWagingCapitalf&ems(Inc.pDecmAcccunisChan5e5fnWagingCapitalf&ems(Inc.pDecmAcccunisReceivaMe (13.Qnc.JJDecmInventones 口0.(Inc.)，DecinPrepaidandDth&rCurrentAssel5-t,LJ675F(5-(D--1J-1^-\djR-54引門4)

也(4.口ProJ-ctii0nPnrli-dYearlYear2Year3Year4YearSYear6OperatingActivities20092010KH120122013二14NetIncomeU9:3556.1161.S笳6a$72.3S-785Plug-Depreciation&Amortizalion2162.2.923.a245253260Plug-Amortization------PlugAmortizationofFinancingFees2.52.5252c?52.5Inc./(Dec.}inAccounlsPayable6.04914212B2.9Inc.y(Dec}inAccruedLiabilities8.0E.54.836373.9Inc.y(Dec}inOtherCurrentLiatnlilies2.0161.103a9EL9(Inc.)JDecinNetWorkingCaplall€,5]I4,G1f3Gj□7}[3.91CashFlowfromOpe巾tingActiviti&g574.9103.4$90.2￡%.3SI03J經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流按照凈利潤(rùn)+折舊攤銷+融資費(fèi)用攤銷±營(yíng)運(yùn)資金項(xiàng)目調(diào)整計(jì)算。其中凈利潤(rùn)通過公式循環(huán)引用計(jì)算解決，折舊攤銷及融資費(fèi)用攤銷前文已計(jì)算。ChangesinWorkingCapitalItems(營(yíng)運(yùn)資本項(xiàng)目對(duì)現(xiàn)金流的影響，暫理解為流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)和流動(dòng)負(fù)債)(Inc.)/Dec.inAccountsReceivable：【increase/decrease】應(yīng)收賬款增減對(duì)現(xiàn)金流的影響，年初應(yīng)收賬款-年末應(yīng)收賬款；(Inc.)/Dec.inInventories：存貨增減對(duì)現(xiàn)金流影響，年初存貨-年末存貨(Inc.)/Dec.inPrepaidandOtherCurrentAssets：預(yù)付賬款對(duì)現(xiàn)金流影響，年初-年末

Inc./(Dec.)inAccountsPayable：應(yīng)付賬款對(duì)現(xiàn)金流影響，年末-年初Inc./(Dec.)inAccruedLiabilities：應(yīng)計(jì)債務(wù)對(duì)現(xiàn)金流影響，年末-年初Inc./(Dec.)inOtherCurrentLiabilities：其他短期負(fù)債對(duì)現(xiàn)金流影響，年末-年初上述調(diào)整在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表也有體現(xiàn)：Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year72口帖 加口 工CHI 劉W NCM3 NQ14OtherLong-TermLiabilitiesTdIbILiabilitieaNcncDrtrQllingIrter&EtShiirehDldcra1EquiyTotalShareholders1Rulit)Total andEquity的同心)GfretZ如? 2ii 2ijj 2L￡! 25jQ 2fiJ2 2L￡__J147.S 妙口R： JaBf.7 圻典.2 打353 耗6K.g 1591041丸3 4了IE 立.” 的3 石7&W 7*7 €4口衛(wèi)$419.5 $475,3 $53r.1 $503,9 S6T62 $754,7 $54。,3$1$麗5 $1島酪,5 *1,411.7 $1.4刖,6 $1,433.3Q.CW Q.WC C.MC CMC C.OTC C.OJC C.QJO^etWorkingCSiatalncreasej/Decrei&&inNetVJcxkiigCapital1OS.0 114.5 119.1 122.6 126.3 130.1 134.0伊⑼ 他母 (d.e) {3.6) (3.7) (3.5) (3.ffiNetWorkingCapital：流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)-流動(dòng)負(fù)債(Increase)/DecreaseinNetWorkingCapital：NetWorkingCapital【年初】-【年末】最終將經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)、投資活動(dòng)和融資活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流匯總得出預(yù)測(cè)的現(xiàn)金流量表。第三部分：投資回報(bào)分析ProformaiQQfi?Year1Year22Q1HYear32QH7b5xS3B5.0S162.C-S171.7S173.6JJ5x$1金伍。t1.287,-911,339.4406.3354.2294.6300.0300.0300.0$706,3$654,2$534辿1706.3$654,2$5ME| ?5QB.7l話裝了__"山iR:ReturnsAnalvsisEntryEBITDAMultipleInitialEquityInvestmentEOTDAEitEBfTgLkjttipleEnterpriseValueatExitLess:NetDebtRevolvingCreditFacilityTermLoanATermLoanBTermLoanCExistingTermLoan2ndLienSeniorNatesSeniorSubordinatedNotesOtherDebtTotalDebtLess:CashandCashEquivalentsNetDebtEquityValueatExitYear1Year2Year320102011InitialEquityInvestment{S3B5.0)CS385.0)(S3S5.0)-EquityProceedsS5O8.7--S633.7-S744.5CashRetunn13c 1.6x 1119K:2008年9月30投資，進(jìn)入EBITDA倍數(shù)7.5倍(公司價(jià)值1100，實(shí)際股權(quán)資本投入385)，退出日期待定，退出倍數(shù)暫定7.5倍。投資回報(bào)計(jì)算如下：

退出時(shí)股權(quán)投資收益=退出時(shí)企業(yè)估值-凈債務(wù)=退出時(shí)EBITDA*估值倍數(shù)-凈債務(wù)?，F(xiàn)金回報(bào)率=退出時(shí)股權(quán)投資收益/InitialEquityInvestmentIRR計(jì)算如下:Year1Year2Year3Year42cHi2012InitialEquityInvestment(S3&5.D)($335.0)($385.D)($305.0)EquityProceeds$508.7$633.75744.8$850.7IRR32J%28.3%24.6%21.9%敏感性分析：不同進(jìn)入和退出倍數(shù)的敏感性分析IRR-RssuminqExitin2013EE-itMulti-I白65KAOx L5# 8Q#3.5k6.5x26.6%29.5% 32.2% 34.7%37.1%Entry7.0x19.9%22.7% 25.3% 27.7%29.9%Multiple7.5x15.0%17.7% 22.4%24.5%8.Dx11.0%13.6% 16.0% 18.2%20.3%8.5x7.8% 10.3% 12.6% 14.8% 167%不同退出年份的敏感性分析：ExitYear201120122013201420156.5k13.7%147%15.0%14.9%14.8%7.Ox194%18.5%17..7%17.0%16.3%7.5x24.6%213%20.1%18.&%17.8%S.(hc294%25.1%22.4%20.5%19/1%8.5k33.9%2B.0%24.5%221%204%ExitMultiple按照進(jìn)入和退出倍數(shù)相同，不同倍數(shù)的敏感性分析EntryWuhiDle6.50xEntryWuhiDle6.50x6.75xLODx7.25jc7.50x6.50x25.6%2&.1%29.5%30.9%32.2%6.75x23.0%24.5%25.9%27.2%2S.5%LOOx19.9%214%22.7%24.1%25.3%7.25x17..3%1B.7%20.0%21.3%22.6%7.50x15.0%16.4%17.7%13.9%20」唯ExitMultiMaIRR-Assuming1Exitin2013E

第四部分：TransactionSummary概要表制作總覽表：數(shù)據(jù)均計(jì)算過Soure；e!與e>fFund;%ofTotalSduixASMulltipgofEBITDAPr?忖口興機(jī)噥?8Cuinulativ，RevoMngCrediFacilty-%-K-XL*325bpsTermLuanA-%-K?xIMATermLaanB450038.B%3.1x3.1mL+350bpsTermLoainG-%-X3.1xHA2ndLien-%-X3.1xMASenioirMotes-%-X3.1xNASeniorSubordinatedNotes300.025.9^2.0x5.1xW.OOQttEquityContribution335.033一僚之於7.7xRollosEquily-%-X77xCashonHand25.0 Q2X LfliTotalSources$1,160.0100-0%7.9x7.9xU5一BofFundg%ofTotalAmountU-PurchaseValueCoEquity$825071.1%RepayExistingDebt300.025.9%Tender7CallPremiums--%FinancingFees-20.01.7%OtherFeesandExpenses-15.01.3%TotalUses$1,160.0100.0%PurcHas-Pric-R-tuiriAnady;MsOfferPriceperShareFulyDilutedSharesEquityPurchasePrice$16.5。50.0ExitYearEntryMultipleExitMultiple20137.5x7.5k4a25。Plus:Existi