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1TEXTASurvivinganeconomiccrisis經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中求生存TheeconomicslumpsomanypeoplesufferedthroughoriginatedintheUnitedStates,witharegulatoryfailureofmortgagesratedlessriskythantheyturnedouttobe.Aslargenumbersofhomeownersprovedunabletorepaytheirloans,thecompaniesthathadtheoversightandthosethatownedtheloans(aswellastheirsubsidiariesandtheirshareholders)lostsizableamountsofmoney.TheeffectsofthesedrasticlossessoonspiraledintotheUSjobmarketaslayoffsandterminations.Thereboundwasslowincoming.Manypeopleexperiencedlongmonthsofstrugglesjustlikethecharacterinthisstory.〔以及其子公司及股份持有者如下面故事中的仆人公那樣。Facingtenantevictionafterseveralmonthsofunpaidrent,SueJohnsonpackedupwhatevershecouldfitintohertwo-doorautomobileanddroveoutoftown.蘇·約翰遜有好幾個月都未付房租了,面臨著被逐出的境地,她把能塞進(jìn)她的那輛雙門轎車的東西都打包整理好,離城而去。Shewoundupatamotel,puttingdownthe$260shehadmanagedtoscrapetogetherfromfriendsandfromsellingherlivingroomset.ItwasallthemoneySuehadleftafterherunemploymentbenefitshadexpired.Shefacedlifeasamigrant,apreviouslyunimaginablesituationforawomanwho,notthatlongbefore,hadheldacorporatejobinalargemetropolitancityandwasenrolledinagraduatebusinessschool.260象的,而她不久以前都還在大都市里一家公司供職,并就讀于商學(xué)院爭論生班。Sueknewthatinalllikelihood,shewouldenduplivinginhercar.Shewaspartofahard-luckgroupofjoblesspeoplewhocalledthemselves“99ers“,becausetheyhadexhaustedthemaximum99weeksofunemploymentinsurancebenefitsthattheycouldclaim.蘇明白自己最終很可能以車為家。她如今已成為倒霉的失業(yè)群體中的一份子,他們自稱“99周人”99周的失業(yè)保險救濟(jì)金。Long-termunemploymentwasatrecordlevels,accordingtotheBureauofLaborStatistics.Modestpaymentsofunemploymentbenefitswerealifelinethatenabledpeoplewhowereout-of-worktomaintainatleastanappearanceofnormalcy,keepingaroofovertheirheads,puttinggasintheircars,payingelectricandphonebills.電費話費。Withoutthechecks,peoplelikeSue,whooncewasadirectorofclientservicesatatechnologycompany,begantotumbleovertheeconomiccliff.Thelastaspectsoftheirformerworking-classormiddle-classlivesweregone,andallofthemfacedunsurefutures.卜。WhenSuereceivedherlastunemploymentcheck,shefeltawaveofprofoundgrief.Withnoincometodeposit,Sue”scheckingaccountdeterioratedintonegativebalances.Hercarwasonthevergeofbeingrepossessed.And,theconstantharassmentofthefinancingcompanyforhercarloanaddedtoherdailystress.Eachday,likeapingpongball,Suewentbackandforthbetweenresolveanddespair.余額轉(zhuǎn)為負(fù)值。汽車行將被收回!而且信貸公司不斷騷擾,催還車貸,讓她成天壓力倍增。每天,蘇就像乒乓球一樣在信念和無望之間起落不定。Itwasasickeningplungeconsideringthatonlyashortyearandahalfbefore,Suewasearning$56,000ayearatheroldjob,enjoyedvacationinginplaceslikeMexicoandtheCaribbean,andhadstartedbusinessschoolatanexcellentuniversity.56,000美元的年薪,可在像墨西哥、加勒比那樣的地方度假,還就讀于名校商學(xué)院。Initially,Suehadtriedtofinishheruniversitycertificationremotely,butfinallydroppedoutbecauseofthestressfromhersinkingfinances.Sheappliedforeverypossiblejobintheemploymentspectrum,fromminimum-wageretailjobstodirectorpositions.最初,蘇還試圖通過遠(yuǎn)程教育完成學(xué)業(yè),但是由于自己經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況每況愈下,最終只好輟學(xué)。她通過各種就業(yè)渠道求職,不管是起薪干起的零售活兒還是部門經(jīng)理。Sueshouldhavebeenevictedfromhertwo-bedroomapartmentfornon-paymentseveralmonthsbeforeshewas,but,thankfully,theprocesswasdelayedbypaperworkandbureaucracy.Eventually,thebureaucracycaughtupwithherandamunicipalcouncilgaveher10daystoleaveherapartmentforgood.Shehadnochoicebuttocomply.限定她十天內(nèi)徹底走人。除了遵從,她別無選擇。Thatlastdayofheroldlife,Sueweptasshedroveaway.Shewonderedifshewouldeveragainbeabletoreclaimthatlifeofcomfortandrespect.Sueevenconsideredturningthesteeringwheelofhercarintoatreeandendingherlifestoryrightthere.人敬重的生活。蘇甚至想過打轉(zhuǎn)方向盤一頭撞向大樹,就此了結(jié)一生。Friendscametoheraid.Onefriendwiredher$200whileshewasdrivingawayfromheroldapartment,enablinghertofindrefugeinamotelalongtheway.ButSueworriedtherewouldn”tbeanymorecharityforthemoneyandgasshedesperatelyneeded.200能夠在沿途的一家汽車旅館覓得棲身之所油了。Helpedbygascardsdonatedbyachurch,Suedecidedtoreturntoherhometown.Shefiguredthehealth-caresafetynettherewasbetter,aswellasthejobmarket.Shecontactedalocalshelterbutlearnedtherewasawaitinglist.Welfarewasnotanoption,becauseshedidn”thaveyoungchildren.And,Sueknewthatnoneofherthreeadultsonswereinapositiontohelpher.由于她沒有未成年的孩子。蘇知道她的三個已成年的兒子也幫不了她。“IknewtheonlyhelpIwasgoingtogetwasfrommemyself,“Suesaid.“Ithoughttomyself:Ihavetotakecareofmyself.Ireally,reallyneedtogetwork.Ineedajob.Idon”twanttobeseenasaparasite.““我知道,只有自己才能幫自己,”蘇說?!拔腋嬷约海何业灭B(yǎng)活自己。我確實得干活,我要找份工作,我可不想被人看成寄生蟲?!盨ue”smotelroomwasdepressing.Liningtheshelvesunderneaththetelevisionwereherfoodsupplies:riceandnoodlesthatshemixedwithwaterinthemotel”sicebucketandheatedupinamicrowave;peanutbutterandjelly;aloafofwhitebread—thesubsistenceofadesperateperson.Sue”sdayswerespentsurfingInternetjobindexesandapplyingforjobswherethesilent“No.““No.““No.“gavewaytoafeelingofhelplessness.面包——這些食物也就供一個走投無路的人牽強(qiáng)度日而已指南,四處求職;但一次次無聲的拒絕讓她陷于無助。Suehadallnewstrugglesandobstaclestodealwithtoo,likewhattodoforanaddressforjobapplications.Sheworriedaboutwhatwouldhappenwhenhercellphonewascutofffornon-payment,andcallstohernumberwoulddisappearintoaninvisibleworldshecouldnotreach.停機(jī)了怎么辦?別人撥打她的號碼,就如石沉大海,她無法接聽。Finally,anoldfriendsentSuearayofhope,asmallmiracle:$300cash—justenoughforanotherbrutalweekofstruggle.最終,一位老朋友送來一縷期望,一個小小的驚喜:300美元的現(xiàn)金——牽強(qiáng)夠她再苦撐一周。TEXTBEconomicbubbles:Causesandconditions經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫:成因與條件Economicbubblesoccurwhen,foranynumberofreasons,excessiveinvestmentincommodities(suchasoil),securities(suchasstocksandbonds),realestate,orcollectiblesdrivesuppriceswellbeyondtheitem”sintrinsicvalue.Theinevitableresultofthisboominpriceisacrashorbust.Thepricefallssharplyonceitbecomesclearthatithasgrownfarbeyondthepurchasingpowerofpotentialcustomers.不管由于何種緣由,一旦人們對于商品〔如石油、證券〔如股票、債券、房地產(chǎn)或保藏品暴漲不行避開的結(jié)果就是經(jīng)濟(jì)的崩潰或破滅,價格就會急劇下跌。Speculatorsriskmoneyinsuchinvestmentsbecausetheyhopethatthepriceofanassettheypurchasedwillquicklyincrease.Sincemostspeculatorsarenervousaboutwheretheyinvesttheirmoney,bubblesarebynomeansthenorm.Afterall,everyinvestmententailstheriskthatitisoverpriced.Theyalsoknowthatrisingpriceswillencourageeithergreaterproductionofacommodityorgreaterwillingnessofcurrentownerstosell.Eitheroftheseconditionscanserveasa“negativefeedback“mechanismthatadjustspricesdownward.Asananalogy,thinkofnegativeeconomicfeedbacklikeyoureyes.Asthelightgetsbrighter,yourpupilsgetsmallerandletinlesslight.Butwhatif,instead,youreyesworkedasa“positivefeedback“mechanism?Insunlight,yourpupilswouldopenwideanddamageyoureyes.投機(jī)者們由于期望購置的資產(chǎn)價格能夠急劇上漲才進(jìn)展這樣的風(fēng)險投資賣出。不管哪種狀況都會有助于形成促使價格下行的“負(fù)面反響”機(jī)制。打個比方,把負(fù)面經(jīng)是“正面反響”Economicbubblesoccurwhenpricestrendingsharplyupwardspurpositive,ratherthannegative,feedback.Forwhateverreason(fearofshortages,greed,anexcessivelyoptimisticattitudetowardthefuture,orflawsintheanalysisofanasset”sunderlyingvalue),buyersbelievethatthevalueoftheassetwillcontinuetorise.Ifthepricerises,overlyenthusiasticspeculatorsbuymore,orthosewhomissedoutonthelowerpriceflocktobuybeforethepricerisesanyhigher.Theforemostexplanationisthe“greaterfooltheory“:Buyersjustifytheirpurchasesbyassuringthemselvestheywillfind“agreaterfool“whowillpayevenmore.Buyerenthusiasminfectsotherbuyers,amplifyingtheeffectevenfurther.Undertherightconditions,pricescanreachdizzyingheightsbeforefalling.Onefamousexampleisthetulip-buyingbubblewhichhappenedinAmsterdaminthe1630swhenasingletulipbulbcouldcostayear”ssalary.——不管何種緣由,購置者信任其價值會持續(xù)上行。假設(shè)價格上漲,狂熱的投機(jī)者就會買入更多,或者那些錯過低價買入的人就會在價格進(jìn)一步攀升之前蜂擁入市。對此現(xiàn)象的解釋莫過于“博傻理論”:買入方深信自己能找到下一個甘愿出更高價格的冤大頭,從而認(rèn)為自己的買賣是合理1730年月發(fā)生在阿姆斯特丹的郁金香搶購泡沫,當(dāng)時,一株郁金香球莖的價格相當(dāng)于一年的工資。Mostbubblesareeasilyassimilatedoravertedbyanelasticmarket.Providedthebubbleissmallenough,thelosersearnwisdominretrospect,andthewinnersearnalotofmoney.Buttheeffectsofabubblemightbecomecumulativeifmanyownersofanoverpricedassetfeelrichandspendfoolishly,especiallyinaperiodofderegulation.Imaginethis:Youbuyahousefor$200,000,forwhichyouborrowed$160,000beforehand.Youhave$40,000inequityinthehouse.Overthenextfiveyears,themarketappraisalrisesto$500,000.Nowyouhave$340,000inequity($500,000–$160,000),soyouborrowanother$240,000fromabankusingthisequitytosecuretheloan.Youstillhave$100,000inequityinyourhome,andyouhave$240,000tospend.Yousuddenlyfeellessneedtobeeconomicalwithyourpurchasesandallocatemoremoneyforthingslikeavacationhome,anewcar,etc.大多數(shù)的泡沫簡潔被彈性市場加以消化或轉(zhuǎn)移。只要這種泡沫不是很大,輸家花錢買聰明,200,000160,00040,000美元。五年過后,市場估價上升到500,000美元?,F(xiàn)在你獲得的房產(chǎn)凈值就是340,000美元〔$500,00$160,000,于是你以此作擔(dān)保,再貸款240,000美100,000240,000美元可供花銷。趕忙,你會覺得沒有必要節(jié)約開支,還能抽出更多錢來購置度假屋及車等等。Butequityisnotrevenue.Themarketholdslongenoughforyoutospendthemoney.Thenitcrashesandthevalueofyourhomefallsto$325,000.Nowyouhavenegativeequityandowethebankalmost$400,000.Soyoudefaultonyourloanandgiveyourhouse,car,andvacationhometothebank.Ifthissituationiswidespread,itcanculminateinthefailureofthosebanksandaseverecrackdownonthelendingneededtogrowtheeconomy.但房產(chǎn)凈值并不是收益。市場長期保持穩(wěn)定,讓你有足夠的時間花錢。后來,市場崩潰,你325,000美元。你現(xiàn)在持有的房產(chǎn)凈值為負(fù),倒欠銀行將近400,000美元。為此,你就停頓還款,將房子、車子和度假屋等交給銀行。此種情形一旦集中,終會讓銀行難以為繼,并最終沉重打擊進(jìn)展經(jīng)濟(jì)所需的貸款業(yè)務(wù)。Therearealsostockmarketbubbles.Inanormalmarket,investorsbuystockinacompanybecausetheyanticipatethatfutureprofitswillbecomedividendsandtheybelievethevalueofthecompany”sassetswillincrease.Sometimes,though,a“herdmentality“setsinandtoomanybrokersrushtobuy,drivingpriceslikemercuryupathermometertolevelsthatproveunrealistic.Eventuallyitbecomesclearthatfurtherincreasesarenotforthcomingandpricedeteriorationdevelops,followedbyaswiftdrop.Whenthishappenstotoomanycompaniesinaggregate,itiscalledastockmarketcrash.“羊群效應(yīng)”,眾多經(jīng)紀(jì)人蜂擁熱購,股價就像溫度計里的水銀被一路推至虛高。最終,形勢變得明白:股價不再上漲,演化為股價下挫,暴跌也隨之而來。當(dāng)這種狀況集中爆發(fā)于眾多的公司時,就被稱為股市崩盤。Arecentstockmarketbubblewasthe“dot-com“bubble.ThebuzzabouttheeconomicpossibilitiesoftheInternetencouragedinvestorstofundthecreationofmanydot-comcompanies—toomanyitturnedout.Forseveralyears,dozensofentrepreneurssoughttoduplicateforthem
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