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7章項目成本ProjectCost項目成本管理包含為使項目在批準的預(yù)算內(nèi)完成而對成本進行規(guī)劃、估算、預(yù)算、融資、籌資、管理和控制的各個過程，從而確保項目在批準的預(yù)算內(nèi)完工。ProjectCostManagementincludestheprocessesinvolvedinplanning,estimating,budgeting,financing,funding,managing,andcontrollingcostssothattheprojectcanbecompletedwithintheapprovedbudget.圖7-1概括了項目成本管理的各個過程，包括Figure7-1providesanoverviewofthefollowingProjectCostManagement規(guī)劃成本管PlancostManagement—Theprocessthatestablishesthepolicies,procedures,andationforplanning,managing,expending,andcontrollingprojectcosts.估算成本——對完成項目活動所需進行近似估算的過程 costs—Theprocessofdeveloanapproximationofthemonetaryresourcesneededtocompleteprojectactivities. Budget—Theprocessofaggregatingtheestimatedcostsofindividualactivitiesorworkpackagestoestablishanauthorizedcostbaseline. costs—Theprocessofmonitoringthestatusoftheprojecttoupdatetheprojectcostsandmanagingchangestothecostbaseline.附錄A1。TheseprocessesinteractwitheachotherandwithprocessesinotherKnowledgeAreasasdescribedindetailinSection3andAnnexA1.在某些項目，特別是范圍較小的項目中，成本估算和成本預(yù)算之間的聯(lián)系非常緊密，至于可視為一個過程，由一個人在較短時間內(nèi)完成。但本章仍然把這兩個過程分開來介紹，因為它們所用的工具和技術(shù)各不相同。對成本的在項目早期最大，因此盡早定義范圍就至關(guān)重要（見5.3節(jié)。Onsomeprojects,especiallythoseofsmallerscope,costestimatingandcostbudgetingaretightlylinkedandcanbeviewedasasingleprocessthatcanbeperformedbyasingle overarelativelyshortperiodoftime.Thesearepresentedhereasdistinctprocessesbecausethetoolsandtechniquesforeacharedifferent.Theabilitytoinfluencecostisgreatestattheearlystagesoftheproject,makingearlyscopedefinitioncritical 項目成本管理應(yīng)考慮干系人對掌握成本情況的要求。不同的干系人會在不同的時間、不同的方法測算項目成本。例如，對于某采購品，可在做出采購決策、下達訂單、實際交貨、實際成本發(fā)生或進行會計記賬時，測算其成本。ProjectCostManagementshouldconsiderthestakeholderrequirementsformanagingcosts.Differentstakeholderswillmeasureprojectcostsindifferentwaysandatdifferenttimes.Forexample,thecostofanacquireditemmaybemeasuredwhentheacquisitiondecisionismadeorcommitted,theorderisplaced,theitemisdelivered,ortheactualcostisincurredorrecordedforprojectaccountingpurposes.項目成本管理重點關(guān)注完成項目活動所需資源的成本，但同時也應(yīng)考慮項目決策對項產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)或成果的使用成本、成本和支持成本的影響。例如，限制設(shè)計的次數(shù)可降低項目成本，但可能增加由此帶來的產(chǎn)品運營成本。ProjectCostManagementisprimarilyconcernedwiththecostoftheresourcesneededtocompleteprojectactivities.ProjectCostManagementshouldalsoconsidertheeffectofprojectdecisionsonthesubsequentrecurringcostofusing,maintaining,andsupportingtheproduct,service,orresultoftheproject.Forexample,limitingthenumberofdesignreviewscanreducethecostoftheprojectbutcouldincreasetheresultingproduct’soperating在很多組織中，預(yù)測和分析項目產(chǎn)品的財務(wù)效益是在項目之行的。但對于有些項目，如固定資產(chǎn)投資項目，可在項目成本管理中進行這項預(yù)測和分析工作。在這種情況下，項目成本管理還需使用其他過程和許多通用財務(wù)管理技術(shù)，如投資回報率分析、現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)分析和投資回收期分析等。Inmanyorganizations,predictingand yzingtheprospectivefinancialperformanceoftheproject’sproductisperformedoutsideoftheproject.Inothers,suchasacapitalfacilitiesproject,ProjectCostManagementcanincludethiswork.Whensuchpredictionsand ysesareincluded,ProjectCostManagementmayaddressadditionalprocessesandnumerousgeneralfinancialmanagementtechniquessuchasreturnoninvestment,discountedcashflow,andinvestmentpayback 應(yīng)該在項目規(guī)劃階段的早期就對成本管理工作進行規(guī)劃，建立各成本管理過程的基本框架，以確保各過程的有效性及各過程之間的協(xié)調(diào)性。Thecostmanagementplanningeffortoccursearlyinprojectplanningandsetstheframeworkforeachofthecostmanagementprocessessothatperformanceoftheprocesseswillbeefficientandcoordinated.PlanCost規(guī)劃成本管理是為規(guī)劃、管理、花費和控制項目成本而制定政策、程序和文檔的過程PlanCostManagementistheprocessthatestablishesthepolicies,procedures,andationforplanning,managing,expending,andcontrollingprojectcosts.Thekeybenefitofthisprocessisthatitprovidesguidanceanddirectiononhowtheprojectcostswillbemanagedthroughouttheproject.Theinputs,toolsandtechniques,andoutputsofthisprocessaredepictedinFigure7-2.Figure7-3depictsthedataflowdiagramoftheprocess.成本管理過程及其工具與技術(shù)，應(yīng)記錄在成本管理計劃中。成本管理計劃是項目管理計劃的組成部分。Thecostmanagementprocessesandtheirassociatedtoolsandtechniquesareedinthecostmanagementplan.Thecostmanagementplanisacomponentoftheprojectmanagementplan.規(guī)劃成本管理：輸入PlancostManagement:項目管理計劃ProjectManagement見節(jié)。項目管理計劃中用以制定成本管理計劃的信息包括（但不限于：DescribedinSectionTheprojectmanagementplancontainsinformationusedtodevelopthecostmanagementplan,whichcontains,butisnotlimitedto: ThescopebaselineincludestheprojectscopestatementandWBSdetailforcostestimationandmanagement.進度基準。進度基準定義了項目成本將在何時發(fā)生其他信息。項目管理計劃中與成本相關(guān)的進度、風險和溝通決策等信息Otherinformation. Othercost-relatedscheduling,risk,andcommunicationsdecisionsfromtheprojectmanagementplan.項目章程 DescribedinSection.Theprojectcharterprovidesthesummarybudgetfromwhichthedetailedprojectcostsaredeveloped.Theprojectcharteralsodefinestheprojectapprovalrequirementsthatwillinfluencethemanagementoftheprojectcosts.見2.1.5節(jié)。會影響規(guī)劃成本管理過程的事業(yè)環(huán)境因素包括（但不限于DescribedinSection2.1.5.TheenterpriseenvironmentalfactorsthatinfluencethePlanCostManagementprocessinclude,butarenotlimitedto:能影響成本管理的組織文化和組織結(jié)市場條件，決定著在當?shù)丶叭蚴袌錾峡色@取哪些產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)和成果貨幣匯率，用于換算發(fā)生在多個國家的項目成本Currencyexchangeratesforprojectcostssourcedfrommorethanone發(fā)布的商業(yè)信息。經(jīng)?？梢詮纳虡I(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫中獲取資源成本費率及相關(guān)信息。這些數(shù)據(jù)庫動態(tài)具有相應(yīng)技能的人力資源的成本數(shù)據(jù)，也提供材料與設(shè)備的標準成本數(shù)據(jù)，還可以從賣方公布的價格中獲取相關(guān)信息Publishedcommercialinformationsuchasresourcecostrateinformationisoftenavailablefromcommercialdatabasesthattrackskillsandhumanresourcecosts,andprovidestandardcostsformaterialandequipment.Publishedsellerpricelistsareanothersourceofinformation;and項目管理信息系統(tǒng)，可為管理成本提供多種方案組織過程資產(chǎn)organizationalProcess見2.1.4節(jié)。會影響規(guī)劃成本管理的組織過程資產(chǎn)包括（但不限于DescribedinSection2.1.4.TheorganizationalprocessassetsthatinfluencethePlanCostManagementprocessinclude,butarenotlimitedto:財務(wù)控制程序（如定期報告、費用與支付、會計編碼及標準合同條款等）；Financialcontrolsprocedures(e.gtimereporting,requiredexpenditureanddisbursementreviews,accountingcodes,andstandardcontractprovisions);歷史信息和經(jīng)驗教訓知識庫財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)庫現(xiàn)有的、正式的和非正式的、與成本估算和預(yù)算有關(guān)的政策、程序和指南規(guī)劃成本管理工具與技PlancostManagement:toolsand專家判斷Expert基于歷史信息，專家判斷可以對項目環(huán)境及以往類似項目的信息提供有價值的見解。專家判斷還可以對是否需要聯(lián)合使用多種方法，以及如何協(xié)調(diào)方法之間的差異提出建議。Expetjudgment,guidedbyhitoialinformaion,proidesvaluableinightaboutheenironentandinformationfrompriorsimilarprojects.Expertjudgmentcanalsosuggestwhethertocombinemethodsandhowtoreconciledifferencesbetweenthem.針對正在開展的活動，基于某應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域、知識領(lǐng)域、學科、行業(yè)等的專業(yè)知識而做出的判斷，應(yīng)該用于制定成本管理計劃。Judgmentbaseduponexpertiseinanapplicationarea,KnowledgeArea,discipline,industry,etc.,asappropriatefortheactivitybeingperformedshouldbeusedindevelothecostmanagementplan.分析技術(shù)ytical在制定成本管理計劃時，可能需要選擇項目籌資的方法，如自籌、股權(quán)投資借貸投資等。成本管理計劃中可能也需詳細說明籌集項目資源的方法，如、采購、租用或租賃。如同會影響項目的其他財務(wù)決策，這些決策可能對項目進度和風險產(chǎn)生影響。Deelothecostmanagementplanmayinvolvechooingstrategicopionstofundtheprojectsuchaself-funding,fundingwithequity,orfundingwithdebt.Thecostmanagementplanmayalsodetailwaystofinanceprojectresourcessuchasmaking,purchasing,renting,orleasing.Thesedecisions,likeotherfinancialdecisionsaffectingtheproject,mayaffectprojectscheduleand/orrisks.組織政策和程序可能影響采用哪種財務(wù)技術(shù)進行決策?？捎玫募夹g(shù)包括（但不限于：回收期、投資回報率、內(nèi)部率、現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)和凈現(xiàn)值。Organizationalpoliciesandproceduresmayinfluencewhichfinancialtechniquesareemployedinthesedecisions.Techniquesmayinclude(butarenotlimitedto):paybackperiod,returnoninvestment,internalrateofreturn,discountedcashflow,andnetpresentvalue.會議項目團隊可能舉行規(guī)劃會議來制定成本管理計劃。參會人員可能包括項目經(jīng)理、項目發(fā)起人、選定的項目團隊成員、選定的干系人、項目成本，以及其他必要人員。Projectteamsmayholdplanningmeetingstodevelopthecostmanagementplan.Attendeesatthesemeetingsmayincludetheprojectmanager,theprojectsponsor,selectedprojectteammembers,selectedstakeholders,anyonewithresponsibilityforprojectcosts,andothersas規(guī)劃成本管理：輸出PlancostManagement:成本管理計劃costManagement成本管理計劃是項目管理計劃的組成部分，描述將如何規(guī)劃、安排和控制項目成本。成本管理過程及其工具與技術(shù)應(yīng)記錄在成本管理計劃中。Thecostmanagementplanisacomponentoftheprojectmanagementplananddescribeshowthecostswillbeplanned,structured,andcontrolled.Thecostmanagementprocessesandtheirassociatedtoolsandtechniquesareedinthecostmanagementplan.例如，在成本管理計劃中規(guī)定Forexample,thecostmanagementplancanestablishthe計量單位。需要規(guī)定每種資源的計量單位，例如用于測量時間的人時數(shù)、人天數(shù)或周數(shù)，用于計量數(shù)量的米、升、噸、千米或立方碼，或者用貨幣表示的總價。Unitsofmeasure. Eachunitusedinmeasurements(suchasstaffhours,staffdays,weeksfortimemeasures;ormeters,liters,tons,kilometers,orcubicyardsfortymeasures;orlumpsumincurrencyform)isdefinedforeachoftheresources.精確度。根據(jù)活動范圍和項目規(guī)模，設(shè)定成本估算向上或向下取整的程度（100.49取整為100，995.59取整為1000Levelofprecision. Thedegreetowhichactivitycostestimateswillberoundedupordown(e.g.,US$100.49toUS$100,orUS$995.59toUS$1,000),basedonthescopeoftheactivitiesandmagnitudeoftheproject.準確度。為活動成本估算規(guī)定一個可接受的區(qū)間（如±10%，其中可能包括一定數(shù)量的應(yīng)急儲備。Levelofaccuracy.Theacceptablerange(e.g.,±10%)usedindeterminingrealisticactivitycostestimatesisspecified,andmayincludeanamountforcontingencies;組織程序。工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)（見5.4節(jié)）為成本管理計劃提供了框架，以便據(jù)此規(guī)范地開展成本估算、預(yù)算和控制。在項目成本核算中使用的WBS組件，稱為控制賬戶（CA。每個控制賬戶都有唯一的編碼或賬號，直接與執(zhí)行組織的會計制度相聯(lián)系。Organizationalprocedureslinks. Theworkbreakdownstructure(WBS)(Section5.4)providestheframeworkforthecostmanagementplan,allowingforconsistencywiththeestimates,budgets,andcontrolofcosts.TheWBScomponentusedfortheprojectcostaccountingiscalledthecontrolaccount.Eachcontrolaccountisassignedauniquecodeoraccountnumber(s)thatlinksdirectlytotheperformingorganization’saccountingsystem.控制臨界值?？赡苄枰?guī)定偏差臨界值，用于監(jiān)督成本績效。它是在需要采取某種措施前，允許出現(xiàn)的最大偏差。通常用偏離基準計劃的百分數(shù)來表示。 thresholds.Variancethresholdsformonitoringcostperformancemaybespecifiedtoindicateanagreed-uponamountofvariationtobeallowedbeforesomeactionneedstobetaken.Thresholdsare績效測量規(guī)則。需要規(guī)定用于績效測量的掙值管理（EVM）規(guī)則。例如，成本管理計劃應(yīng)該：Rulesofperformancemeasurement. Earnedvaluemanagement(EVM)rulesofperformancemeasurementareset.Forexample,thecostmanagementplanmay:定義WBS中用于績效測量的控制賬戶DefinethepointsintheWBSatwhichmeasurementofcontrolaccountswillbe確定擬用的掙值測量技術(shù)（如里程碑法、固定公式法、完成百分比法等）；Establishtheearnedvaluemeasurementtechniques(e.g.,weightedtones,fixed-formula,percentcomplete,etc.)tobeemployed;and規(guī)定方法，以及用于計算項目完工估算（EAC）的掙值管理公式，該公式計算出的結(jié)果可用于驗證通過自下而上方法得出的完工估算。Specifytrackingmethodologiesandtheearnedvaluemanagementcomputationequationsforcalculatingprojectedestimateatcompletion(EAC)forecaststoprovideavaliditycheckonthebottom-upEAC.關(guān)于掙值管理的信息，參見《掙值管理實踐標準（PracticeStandards ValueManagement（第2版。Formorespecificinformationregardingearnedvaluemanagement,refertothePracticeStandardforEarnedValueManagement–SecondEdition.報告格式。需要規(guī)定各種成的格式和編制頻率過程描述。對其他每個成本管理過程進行描述 Descriptionsofeachoftheothercostmanagementprocessesare其他細節(jié)。關(guān)于成本管理活動的其他細節(jié)包括（但不限于對籌資方案的說明處理匯率波動的程序記錄項目成本的程序Estimate估算成本是對完成項目活動所需進行近似估算的過程。本過程的主要作用是，確EstimateCostsistheprocessofdeveloanapproximationofthemonetaryresourcesneededtocompleteprojectactivities.Thekeybenefitofthisprocessisthatitdeterminestheamountofcostrequiredtocompleteprojectwork.Theinputs,toolsandtechniques,andoutputsofthisprocessaredepictedinFigure7-4.Figure7-5depictsthedataflowdiagramoftheprocess.成本估算是在某特定時點，根據(jù)已知信息所做出的成本預(yù)測。在估算成本時，需要識和分析可用于啟動與完成項目的備選成本方案；需衡備選成本方案并考慮風險，如比較Costestimatesareapredictionthatisbasedontheinformationknownatagivenpointintime.Costestimatesincludetheidentificationandconsiderationofcostingalternativestoinitiateandcompletetheproject.Costtrade-offsandrisksshouldbeconsidered,suchasmakeversusbuy,buyversuslease,andthesharingofresourcesinordertoachieveoptimalcostsfortheproject.通常用某種貨幣單位（如、歐元、日元等）進行成本估算，但有時也可采用其他計量單位，如人時數(shù)或人天數(shù)，以消除通貨膨脹的影響，便于成本比較。Costestimatesaregenerallyexpressedinunitsofsomecurrency(i.e.,dollars,euros,yen,etc.),althoughinsomeinstancesotherunitsofmeasure,suchasstaffhoursorstaffdays,areusedtofacilitatecomparisonsbyeliminatingtheeffectsofcurrencyfluctuations.在項目過程中，應(yīng)該隨著更詳細信息的呈現(xiàn)和假設(shè)條件的驗證，對成本估算進行優(yōu)化。在項目生命周期中，項目估算的準確性將隨著項目的進展而逐步提高。例如，在啟動階段可得出項目的粗略量級估算（Rough Order of Magnitude，ROM，其區(qū)間為?25%到 Costestimatesshouldbereviewedandrefinedduringthecourseoftheprojecttoreflectadditionaldetailasit esavailableandassumptionsaretested.Theaccuracyofaprojectestimatewillincreaseastheprojectprogressesthroughtheprojectlifecycle.Forexample,aprojectintheinitiationphasemayhavearoughorderofmagnitude(ROM)estimateintherangeof?25%to+75%.Laterintheproject,asmoreinformationisknown,definitiveestimatescouldnarrowtherangeofaccuracyto-5%to+10%.Insomeorganizations,thereareguidelinesforwhensuchrefinementscanbemadeandthedegreeofconfidenceoraccuracythatisexpected.本過程從其他知識領(lǐng)域的相關(guān)過程的輸出中獲取輸入信息。一旦獲取，所有信息都可作為全部成本管理過程的輸入。SourcesofinputinformationarederivedfromtheoutputsofprocessesinotherKnowledgeAreas.Oncereceived,allofthisinformationwillremainavailableasinputstoallofthecostmanagementprocesses.進行成本估算，應(yīng)該考慮將向項目的全部資源，包括（但不限于）人工、材料、備、服務(wù)、設(shè)施，以及一些特殊的成本種類，如通貨膨脹補貼、融資成本或應(yīng)急成本。成本估算是對完成活動所需資源的可能成本的量化評估。成本估算可在活動層級呈現(xiàn)，也可以匯總形式呈現(xiàn)。Costsareestimatedforallresourcesthatwillbechargedtotheproject.Thisincludes,butisnotlimitedto,labor,materials,equipment,services,andfacilities,aswellasspecialcategoriessuchasaninflationallowance,costoffinancing,orcontingencycosts.Acostestimateisatativeassessmentofthelikelycostsforresourcesrequiredtocompletetheactivity.Costestimatesmaybepresentedattheactivitylevelorinsummaryform.估算成本：輸入 costs:成本管理計劃CostManagementDescribedinSection.Thecostmanagementplandefineshowprojectcostswillbemanagedandcontrolled.Itincludesthemethodusedandthelevelofaccuracyrequiredtoestimateactivitycost.人力資源管理計劃 resourceManagement見節(jié)。人力資源管理計劃提供了項目人員配備情況、人工費率和相關(guān)/認可方DescribedinSection.Thehumanresourcemanagementplanprovidesprojectstaffingnelrates,andrelatedrewards/recognition,whicharenecessarycomponentsfordevelotheprojectcost范圍基準Scope范圍基準包含以下內(nèi)Thescopebaselineiscomprisedofthe范圍說明書。范圍說明書（節(jié)）提供了產(chǎn)品描述、驗收標準、主要可交付Projectscopestatement. Theprojectscopestatement(Section)providestheproductdescription,acceptancecriteria,keydeliverables,projectboundaries,assumptions,andconstraintsabouttheproject.Onebasicassumptionthatneedstobemadewhenestimatingprojectcostsiswhethertheestimateswillbelimitedtodirectprojectcostsonlyorwhethertheestimateswillalsoincludeindirectcosts.Indirectcostsarethosecoststhatcannotbedirectlytracedtoaspecificprojectandthereforewillbeaccumulatedandallocatedequitablyovermultipleprojectsbysomeapprovedandedaccountingprocedure.Oneofthemostcommonconstraintsformanyprojectsisalimitedprojectbudget.Examplesofotherconstraintsarerequireddeliverydates,availableskilledresources,andorganizationalpolicies.工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)。工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)（5.4節(jié)）指明了項目的全部組件之間及全部可交付Workbreakdownstructure. TheWBS(Section5.4)providestherelationshipsamongallthecomponentsoftheprojectandtheprojectdeliverables.WBS詞典。WBS詞典（節(jié)）提供了可交付成果的詳細信息，并描述了為產(chǎn)出可交付成果，WBS各組件所需進行的工作。 dictionary.TheWBSdictionary(Section)providesdetailedinformationaboutthedeliverablesandadescriptionoftheworkforeachcomponentintheWBSrequiredtoproduceeachdeliverable.范圍基準中可能還包括與合同和法律有關(guān)的信息，如健康、安全、安保、績效、環(huán)境、保險、知識、執(zhí)照和證等。所有這些信息都應(yīng)該在進行成本估算時加以考慮。Additionalinformationthatmaybefoundinthescopebaselinewithcontractualandlegalimplications,suchashealth,safety,security,performance,environmental,insurance,inlectualpropertyrights,licenses,andpermits.Allofthisinformationshouldbeconsideredwhendevelothecostestimates.項目進度計劃Project見 節(jié)。項目工作所需的資源種類、數(shù)量和使用時間，都會對項目成本產(chǎn)生很大響。進度活動所需的資源及其使用時間，是本過程的重要輸入。在估算活動資源過程（見64節(jié)）中，已經(jīng)估算出開展進度活動所需的人員數(shù)量、人時數(shù)及材料和設(shè)備數(shù)量?；顒淤Y源估算與成本估算密切相關(guān)。如果項目預(yù)算中包括融資成本（如利息，或者，資源消耗取決于活動持續(xù)時間的長短，那么活動持續(xù)時間估算（見6.53.1節(jié)）就會對成本估算產(chǎn)生影響。如果成本估算中包含時間敏感型成本，如通過工會集體簽訂定期勞資協(xié)議的員工或價格隨季節(jié)波動的材料，那么活動持續(xù)時間估算也會影響成本估算。DescribedinSection.Thetypeandtyofresourcesandtheamountoftimewhichthoseresourcesareappliedtocompletetheworkoftheprojectaremajorfactorsindeterminingtheprojectcost.Scheduleactivityresourcesandtheirrespectivedurationsareusedaskeyinputstothisprocess.EstimateActivityResources(Section6.4)involvesdeterminingtheavailabilityofstaff,thenumberofstaffhoursrequired,andtiesofmaterialandequipmentneededtoperformscheduleactivities.Itiscloselycoordinatedwithcostestimating.Activitydurationestimates(Section)willaffectcostestimatesonanyprojectwheretheprojectbudgetincludesanallowanceforthecostoffinancing(includinginterestcharges)andwhereresourcesareappliedperunitoftimeforthedurationoftheactivity.Activitydurationestimatescanalsoaffectcostestimatesthathavetime-sensitivecostsincludedinthem,suchasunionlaborwithregularlyexpiringcollectivebargainingagreementsormaterialswithseasonalcostvariations.風險登記冊 見節(jié)。通過風險登記冊，考慮應(yīng)對風險所需的成本。風險既可以是也可以是機會，通常會對活動及整個項目的成本產(chǎn)生影響。一般而言，在項目遇到風險事件后，項目的近期成本將會增加，有時還會造成項目進度延誤。同樣，項目團隊應(yīng)該對可能給業(yè)務(wù)帶來好處（如直接降低活動成本或加快項目進度）的潛在機會保持敏感。DecibedinSecion12.3.1.Theiskregistershouldbereiewedtooniderikresponsecoss.iskwhichcanbeeitherthreatsoropportunities,typicallyhaveanimpactonbothactivityandoverallprojectcosts.Asageneralrule,whentheprojectexperiencesanegativeriskevent,thenear-termcostoftheprojectwillusuallyincrease,andtherewillsometimesbeadelayintheprojectschedule.Inasimilarway,theprojectteamshouldbesensitivetopotentialopportunitiesthatcanbenefitthebusinesseitherbydirectlyreducingactivitycostsorbyacceleratingtheschedule.見2.1.5節(jié)。會影響估算成本過程的事業(yè)環(huán)境因素包括（但不限于DescribedinSection2.1.5.TheenterpriseenvironmentalfactorsthatinfluencetheEstimateCostsprocessinclude,butarenotlimitedto:市場條件?？梢詮氖袌錾汐@得什么產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)和成果，可以從誰那里、以什么條件獲得。地區(qū)和/或全球性的供求情況會顯著影響資源成本。Marketconditions.Theseconditionsdescribewhatproducts,services,andresultsareavailableinthemarket,fromwhom,andunderwhattermsandconditions.Regionaland/orglobalsupplyanddemandconditionsgreatlyinfluenceresourcecosts.發(fā)布的商業(yè)信息。經(jīng)?？梢詮纳虡I(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫中獲取資源成本費率及相關(guān)信息。這些數(shù)據(jù)庫動態(tài)具有相應(yīng)技能的人力資源的成本數(shù)據(jù)，也提供材料與設(shè)備的標準成本數(shù)據(jù)，還可以從賣方公布的價格中獲取相關(guān)信息Publishedcommercialinformation.Resourcecostrateinformationisoftenavailablefromcommercialdatabasesthattrackskillsandhumanresourcecosts,andprovidestandardcostsformaterialandequipment.Publishedsellerpricelistsareanothersourceofinformation.組織過程資 organizationalProcess見2.1.4節(jié)。會影響估算成本過程的組織過程資產(chǎn)包括（但不限于DescribedinSection2.1.4.TheorganizationalprocessassetsthatinfluencetheEstimateCostsprocessinclude,butarenotlimitedto:CostestimatingCostestimatingLessons估算成本：工具與技術(shù) costs:tools 專家判斷Expert基于歷史信息，專家判斷可以對項目環(huán)境及以往類似項目的信息提供有價值的見解。專家判斷還可以對是否聯(lián)合使用多種估算方法，以及如何協(xié)調(diào)方法之間的差異做出決定。類比估算ogous成本類比估算是指以過去類似項目的參數(shù)值（如范圍、成本、預(yù)算和持續(xù)時間等）或模指標（如尺寸、重量和復(fù)雜性等）為基礎(chǔ)，來估算當前項目的同類參數(shù)或指標。在估算成本時，這項技術(shù)以過去類似項目的實際成本為依據(jù)，來估算當前項目的成本。這是一種粗略的估算方法，有時需要根據(jù)項目復(fù)雜性方面的已知差異進行調(diào)整。ogouscostestimatingusesthevaluessuchasscope,cost,budget,anddurationormeasuresofscalesuchassize,weight,andcomplexityfromaprevious,similarprojectasthebasisforestimatingthesameparameterormeasurementforacurrentproject.Whenestimatingcosts,thistechniquereliesontheactualcostofprevious,similarprojectsasthebasisforestimatingthecostofthecurrentproject.Itisagrossvalueestimatingapproach,sometimesadjustedforknowndifferencesinprojectcomplexity.在項目詳細信息不足時，例如在項目的早期階段，就經(jīng)常使用這種技術(shù)來估算成本數(shù)值。該方法綜合利用歷史信息和專家判斷。ogouscostestimatingisfrequentlyusedtoestimateavaluewhenthereisalimitedamountofdetailedinformationabouttheproject,forexample,intheearlyphasesofaproject.ogouscostestimatinguseshistoricalinformationandexpertjudgment.相對于其他估算技術(shù)，類比估算通常成本較低、耗時較少，但準確性也較低?？梢葬樥麄€項目或項目中的某個部分，進行類比估算。類比估算可以與其他估算方法聯(lián)合使用。如果以往項目是本質(zhì)上而不只是表面上類似，并且從事估算的項目團隊成員具備必要的專業(yè)知識，那么類比估算就最為可靠。ogouscostestimatingisgenerallylesscostlyandlesstimeconsumingthanothertechniques,butitisalsogenerallylessaccurate.ogouscostestimatescanbeappliedtoatotalprojectortosegmentsofaproject,inconjunctionwithotherestimatingmethods.ogousestimatingismostreliablewhenthepreviousprojectsaresimilarinfactandnotjustinappearance,andtheprojectteammemberspreparingtheestimateshavetheneeded參數(shù)估算Parametric參數(shù)估算是指利用歷史數(shù)據(jù)之間的統(tǒng)計關(guān)系和其他變量（如建筑施工中的平方英尺，進行項目工作的成本估算。參數(shù)估算的準確性取決于參數(shù)模型的成熟度和基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)的可靠性。參數(shù)估算可以針對整個項目或項目中的某個部分，并可與其他估算方法聯(lián)合使用。Parametricestimatingusesastatisticalrelationshipbetweenrelevanthistoricaldataandothervariables(e.g.,squarefootageinconstruction)tocalculateacostestimateforprojectwork.Thistechniquecanproducehigherlevelsofaccuracydependinguponthesophisticationandunderlyingdatabuiltintothemodel.Parametriccostestimatescanbeappliedtoatotalprojectortosegmentsofaproject,inconjunctionwithotherestimatingmethods.自下而上估算Bottom-up自下而上估算是對工作組成部分進行估算的法。首先對單個工作包或活動的成進行最具體、細致的估算；然后把這些細節(jié)性成本向上匯總或“滾動”到更次，用于后續(xù)報告和。自下而上估算的準確性及其本身所需的成本，通常取決于單個活動或工作包的規(guī)模和復(fù)雜程度。Bottom-upestimatingisamethodofestimatingacomponentofwork.Thecostofindividualworkpackagesactivitiesisestimatedtothegreatestlevelofspecifieddetail.Thedetailedcostisthensummarizedor“rolledup”tohigherlevelsforsubsequentreportingandtrackingpurposes.Thecostandaccuracyofbottom-upcostestimatingaretypicallyinfluencedbythesizeandcomplexityoftheindividualactivityorwork三點估算three-Point通過考慮估算中的不確定性與風險，使用三種估算值來界定活動成本的近似區(qū)間，可以提高活動成本估算的準確性：Theaccuracyofsingle-pointactivitycostestimatesmaybeimprovedbyconsideringestimationuncertaintyandriskandusingthreeestimatestodefineanapproximaterangeforanactivity’scost:（cMMostlikely(cM).Thecostoftheactivity,basedonrealisticeffortassessmentfortherequiredworkandanypredictedexpenses.最樂觀成本（cO?；诨顒拥淖詈们闆r，所得到的活動成本Optimistic(cO).Theactivitycostbased ysisofthebest-casescenarioforthe最悲觀成本（cP?；诨顒拥那闆r，所得到的活動成本 (cP).Theactivitycostbased ysisoftheworst-casescenarioforthe基于活動成本在三種估算值區(qū)間內(nèi)的假定分布情況，使用公式來計算預(yù)期成本（cE?；谌欠植己头植嫉膬蓚€常用公式如下：Dependingontheassumeddistributionofvalueswithintherangeofthethreeestimatestheexpectedcost,canbecalculatedusingaformula.Twocommonlyusedformulasaretriangularandbetadistributions.TheformulascE(cOcMcP cE=(cO+cM+cP)/cE(cO4cMcPBetadistribution(fromatraditional ysis).cE=(cO+4cM+cP)/基于三點的假定分布計算出期望成本，并說明期望成本的不確定區(qū)間Costestimatesbasedonthreepointswithanassumeddistributionprovideanexpectedcostandclarifytherangeofuncertaintyaroundtheexpectedcost.儲備分析reserve為應(yīng)對成本的不確定性，成本估算中可以包括應(yīng)急儲備（有時。應(yīng)儲備是包含在成本基準內(nèi)的一部分預(yù)算，用來應(yīng)對已經(jīng)接受的已識別風險，以及已經(jīng)制定應(yīng)急或減輕措施的已識別風險。應(yīng)急儲備通常是預(yù)算的一部分，用來應(yīng)對那些會影響項目的“已知—未知”風險。例如，可以預(yù)知有些項目可交付成果需要返工，卻不知道返工的工作量是多少?？梢灶A(yù)留應(yīng)急儲備來應(yīng)對這些未知數(shù)量的返工工作?？梢詾槟硞€具體活動建立應(yīng)急儲備，也可以為整個項目建立應(yīng)急儲備，還可以同時建立。應(yīng)急儲備可取成本估算值的某一百分比、costuncertainty.Contingencyreservesarethebudgetwithinthecostbaselinethatisallocatedforidentifiedrisks,whichareacceptedandforwhichcontingentormitigatingresponsesaredeveloped.Contingencyreservesareoftenviewedasthepartofthebudgetintendedtoaddressthe“known-unknowns”thatcanaffectaproject.Forexample,reworkforsomeprojectdeliverablescouldbeanticipated,whiletheamountofthisreworkisunknown.Contingencyreservesmaybeestimatedtoaccountforthisunknownamountofrework.Contingencyreservescanprovideforaspecificactivity,forthewholeproject,orboth.Thecontingencyreservemaybeapercentageoftheestimatedcost,afixednumber,ormaybedevelopedbyusingtative ysismethods.隨著項目信息越來越明確，可以動用、減少或取消應(yīng)急儲備。應(yīng)該在成本文件中清楚地列出應(yīng)急儲備。應(yīng)急儲備是成本基準的一部分，也是項目整體需求的一部分。Asmorepreciseinformationabouttheproject esavailable,thecontingencyreservemaybeused,reduced,oreliminated.Contingencyshouldbeclearlyidentifiedincostation.Contingencyreservesarepartofthecostbaselineandtheoverallfundingrequirementsfortheproject.也可以估算項目所需的管理儲備。管理儲備是為了管理控制的目的而特別留出的項目算，用來應(yīng)對項目范圍中不可預(yù)見的工作。管理儲備用來應(yīng)對會影響項目的“未知—未知”風險。管理儲備不包括在成本基準中，但屬于項目總預(yù)算和需求的一部分。當動用管理儲備資助不可預(yù)見的工作時，就要把動用的管理儲備增加到成本基準中，從而導(dǎo)致成本基準變更。EstimatesmayalsobeproducedfortheamountofmanagementreservetobefundedfortheManagementreservesareanamountoftheprojectbudgetwithheldformanagementcontrolpurposesandareforunforeseenworkthatiswithinscopeoftheproject.Managementreservesareintendedtoaddressthe“unknownunknowns”thatcanaffectaproject.Themanagementreserveisnotincludedinthecostbaselinebutispartoftheoverallprojectbudgetandfundingrequirements.Whenanamountofmanagementreservesisusedtofundunforeseenwork,theamountofmanagementreserveusedisaddedtothecostbaseline,thusrequiringanapprovedchangetothecostbaseline.質(zhì)量成本（COQ）costofQuality見Assumptionsaboutcostsofquality(Section)maybeusedtopreparetheactivitycost項目管理軟件ProjectManagement項目管理應(yīng)用軟件、電子表單、模擬和統(tǒng)計工具等，可用來輔助成本估算。這些工具能簡化某些成本估算技術(shù)的使用，使人們能快速考慮多種成本估算方案。usedtoassistwithcostestimating.Suchtoolscansimplifytheuseofsomecost-estimatingtechniquesandtherebyfacilitaterapidconsiderationofcostestimatealternatives.賣方投標分析VendorBid在成本估算過程中，可能需要根據(jù)合格賣方的投標情況，分析項目成本。在用競爭性標選擇賣方的項目中，項目團隊需要開展額外的成本估算工作，以便各項可交付成果的價格，并計算出組成項目最終總成本的各分項成本。Costestimatingmethodsmayinclude ysisofwhattheprojectshouldcost,basedontheresponsivebidsfromqualifiedvendors.Whenprojectsareawardedtoavendorundercompetitiveprocesses,additionalcostestimatingworkmayberequiredoftheprojectteamtoexaminethepriceofindividualdeliverablesandtoderiveacostthatsupportsthefinaltotalprojectcost.群體決策技術(shù) decision-Making基于團隊的方法（如頭腦風暴、德爾菲技術(shù)或名義小組技術(shù)）可以調(diào)動團隊成員的參與，以提高估算的準確度，并提高對估算結(jié)果的責任感。選擇一組與技術(shù)工作密切相關(guān)的人員參與估算過程，可以獲取額外的信息，得到更準確的估算。另外，讓成員親自參與估算，能夠提高他們對實現(xiàn)估算的責任感。Team-basedapproaches,suchasbrainstorming,theDelphiornominalgrouptechniques,areusefulforengagingteammemberstoimproveestimateaccuracyandcommitmenttotheemergingestimates.Byinvolvingastructuredgroupofpeoplewhoareclosetothetechnicalexecutionofworkintheestimationprocess,additionalinformationisgainedandmoreaccurateestimatesareobtained.Additionally,whenpeopleareinvolvedintheestimationprocess,theircommitmenttowardsmeetingtheresultingestimatesincreases.估算成本：輸出 costs:活動成本Activitycost活動成本估算是對完成項目工作可能需要的成本的量化估算。成本估算可以是匯總的詳細分列的。成本估算應(yīng)該覆蓋活動所使用的全部資源，包括（但不限于）直接人工、材料、設(shè)備、服務(wù)、設(shè)施、，以及一些特殊的成本種類，如融資成本（包括利息、通貨膨脹補貼、匯率或成本應(yīng)急儲備。如果間接成本也包含在項目估算中，則可在活動層次或更高層次上計列間接成本。work.Costestimatescanbepresentedinsummaryformorindetail.Costsareestimatedforallresourcesthatareappliedtotheactivitycostestimate.Thisincludes,butisnotlimitedto,directlabor,materials,equipment,services,facilities,informationtechnology,andspecialcategoriessuchascostoffinancing(includinginterestcharges),aninflationallowance,exchangerates,oracostcontingencyreserve.Indirectcosts,iftheyareincludedintheprojectestimate,canbeincludedattheactivitylevelorathigherlevels.估算Basisof成本估算所需的支持信息的數(shù)量和種類，因應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域而異。不論其詳細程度如何，支持性文件都應(yīng)該清晰、完整地說明成本估算是如何得出的。Theamountandtypeofadditionaldetailssupportingthecostestimatevarybyapplicationarea.Regardlessofthelevelofdetail,thesupportingationshouldprovideaclearandcompleteunderstandingofhowthecostestimatewasderived.活動成本估算的支持信息可包括Supportingdetailforactivitycostestimatesmay關(guān)于估算依據(jù)的文件（如估算是如何編制的ationofthebasisoftheestimate(i.e.,howitwas關(guān)于全部假設(shè)條件的文件關(guān)于各種已知制約因素的文件ationofanyknown對估算區(qū)間的說明（如“10000歐元±10%”就說明了預(yù)期成本的所在區(qū)間；Indicationoftherangeofpossibleestimates(e.g., €10,000(±10%)toindicate