全球資產(chǎn)配置+-+美聯(lián)儲面臨的關(guān)鍵問題

要要2023年2月1日02美聯(lián)儲面臨的關(guān)鍵問題14建議資產(chǎn)配置委員會GarryEvans首席全球資產(chǎn)配置策略師XiaoliTang經(jīng)理副總裁JuanManuelCorreaOssaFelix-AntoineVezina-PoirierPeterBerezin總裁Listentoashortsummaryofthisreport%9UNEMPLOYMENTGAP**876543210%9876543210USP197019801990200020102020*DIFFERENCEBETWEENCOREPCEINFLATIONANDINFLATIONTARGETOF2%.**DIFFERENCEBETWEENUNEMPLOYMENTRATEANDLATESTNAIRUESTIMATES;SOURCE:BLS,CBO.NOTE:SHADINGAREASDENOTETHEPERIODSWHENTHEFEDISSEDITSINFLATIONTARGETBYMORETHANITSUNEMPLOYMENTTARGET.023年7月開始大幅降息是錯ThisMonthionLastMonthionGlobalAssetAllocationCashFixedIncomeNeutralOverweightOverweightNeutralGlobalFixedIncomeDurationtmentGradeHigh-YieldOverweightUnderweightUnderweightNeutralNeutralNeutralCurrenciesNeutralOverweightOverweightNeutralCopyright?2023BCAResearchInc.AllRightsReserved.Refertolastpageforanimportantdisclaimer.JiaruiHanBCAResearch-Internal全球資產(chǎn)配置全球資產(chǎn)配置月度投資組合更新2023年2月1日02關(guān)鍵問題在整個(gè)周期內(nèi)將個(gè)人聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)對中性失業(yè)%86420%8642USNDSRATEUSNDSRATE%86420%197019801990200020102020*DIFFERENCEBETWEENCOREPCEINFLATIONANDINFLATIONTARGETOF2%.**DIFFERENCEBETWEENUNEMPLOYMENTRATEANDLATESTNAIRUESTIMATES;SOURCE:BLS,CBO.NOTE:SHADINGAREASDENOTETHEPERIODSWHENTHEFEDISSEDITSINFLATIONTARGETBYMORETHANITSUNEMPLOYMENTTARGET.RecommendedAllocationGlobalGlobalAssetAllocationEquitiesFixedIncomeCashPortfolioVolatilityGlobalEquities*EuroAreaJapanCanadaAustraliaKChinaEMExChinaGlobalFixedIncome**GovernmentInvestmentGradeHigh-YieldEMDebtDurationInflation-linkedGlobalSectorsFinancialsInfoTechHealthcareCommunicationsServ.IndustrialsConsumerDisc.ConsumerStaplesEnergyMaterialsRealEstateUtilitiesAlternativesHedgeFundsRealEstatePrivateEquityFarmland/TimberlandStructuredProductsCommoditiesGoldCurrenciesUSDPAUDCADCHFCNYEMCurrenciesPreviousCurrent+++++++–––––––ECopyright?2023BCAResearchInc.AllRightsReserved.Refertolastpageforanimportantdisclaimer.JiaruiHanBCAResearch-Internal%%00%%00MarketbelievesFedwillcutby100BPsfromJuly2023toFebruary2024ERELATIVETONEUTRALRATEUSK全球資產(chǎn)配置月度投資組合更新2023年2月1日03關(guān)鍵問題%%USNDSRATEISEXPECTATIONS20232024年2月期間將降息100個(gè)基點(diǎn)(圖2)。2020202120202021202220232024DERIVEDFROMOVERNIGHTINDEXSWAPSCURVE.免地在未來12個(gè)月內(nèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長構(gòu)成下行在美國，ISM制造業(yè)和非制造業(yè)指數(shù)中的新訂單分項(xiàng)指數(shù)上月大幅下挫(圖5)。自2022(圖6)。過去兩個(gè)季度GDP增長強(qiáng)勁，但對國內(nèi)私人購買者的實(shí)際最終銷售額(一個(gè)更(圖7)。1總體GDP以凈進(jìn)口計(jì)算，這意味著進(jìn)口的增長會從GDP中扣1*PROXIEDBY5-YEAR/5-YEARFORWARDRATE.Copyright?2023BCAResearchInc.AllRightsReserved.RefertolastJiaruiHanBCAResearch-Internalpageforanimportantdisclaimer.%%442200Ann%ChgAnn%ChgGGC00606%%442200Ann%ChgAnn%ChgGGC0060605500404030302023全球資產(chǎn)配置月度投資組合更新2023年2月1日04關(guān)鍵問題POLICYRATE:USCANADAAUSTRALIAEUROAREAJAPANUKSDERIVEDFROMOISCURVEUSCANADAAUSTRALIAEUROAREAJAPANUKJANAPRJULOCTJANAPRJULOCT20222023OVERNIGHTINDEXSWAPS.USEONOMICOR22016201820202022*SOURCE:INSTITUTEFOR2016201820202022*SOURCE:INSTITUTEFORSUPPLYMANAGEMENT.SOURCE:THECONFERENCEBOARD.NOTE:SHADEDAREASDENOTENBER-DESIGNATEDRECESSIONS.Copyright?2023BCAResearchInc.AllRightsReserved.Refertolastpageforanimportantdisclaimer.JiaruiHanBCAResearch-28%20%%28%20%%8%%AVERAGEANNUALIZED1-MONTHREALTOTALS&P500RETURN%%%%USPRIVATEDOMESTICPURCHASERSBOANU442AVERAGEANNUALIZED1-MONTHREALTOTALS&P500RETURN%%%%USPRIVATEDOMESTICPURCHASERSBOANU44220000%%NERA20162018202020222024NOTE:BOTHSERIESARESHOWNASANNUALIZED1-QUARTER8866.5%20.7%6.7%2023REAL*TOTALS&P500RETURN MEANRETURNMEDIANRETURN 14.6%2.0% 6.6%3.3%0.6%LESSTHAN4%-5%5%-6%6%-8%MORE4%THAN8%UNEMPLOYMENTRATE%8444%全球資產(chǎn)配置月度投資組合更新2023年2月1日05關(guān)鍵問題US:LAD/SPPLYGAPUMPLOYMENTTE31960197019801990200020102020*DIFFERENCEBETWEENLABORDEMANDANDSUPPLYASAPERCENTAGEOFTHELABORSUPPLY.SOURCE:BUREAUOFLABORSTATISTICS,CONFERENCEBOARDANDBCACALCULATION.NOTE:SHADEDAREASDENOTENBER-DESIGNATEDRECESSIONS.168420世紀(jì)50年代以來的最低水平，勞動力需求和供給之間的缺口超過2%(圖8)。股市通常在失業(yè)率偏高時(shí)而非偏低時(shí)表現(xiàn)最佳 速攀升——Sahm規(guī)則指出，一旦失業(yè)率的384RCopyright?2023BCAResearchInc.AllRightsReserved.Refertolastpageforanimportantdisclaimer.JiaruiHanBCAResearch-0全球資產(chǎn)配置月度投資組合更新0全球資產(chǎn)配置月度投資組合更新2023年2月1日06關(guān)鍵問題0987654320%%E98