公司理財（精要版）（第9版）課件 08

Chapter8StockValuationMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright?2010byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.1KeyConceptsandSkillsUnderstandhowstockpricesdependonfuturedividendsanddividendgrowthBeabletocomputestockpricesusingthedividendgrowthmodelUnderstandhowcorporatedirectorsareelectedUnderstandhowstockmarketsworkUnderstandhowstockpricesarequoted8-22ChapterOutlineCommonStockValuationSomeFeaturesofCommonandPreferredStocksTheStockMarkets8-33CashFlowsforStockholdersIfyoubuyashareofstock,youcanreceivecashintwowaysThecompanypaysdividendsYousellyourshares,eithertoanotherinvestorinthemarketorbacktothecompanyAswithbonds,thepriceofthestockisthepresentvalueoftheseexpectedcashflows8-44One-PeriodExampleSupposeyouarethinkingofpurchasingthestockofMooreOil,Inc.Youexpectittopaya$2dividendinoneyear,andyoubelievethatyoucansellthestockfor$14atthattime.Ifyourequireareturnof20%oninvestmentsofthisrisk,whatisthemaximumyouwouldbewillingtopay?ComputethePVoftheexpectedcashflowsPrice=(14+2)/(1.2)=$13.33OrFV=16;I/Y=20;N=1;CPTPV=-13.338-55Two-PeriodExampleNow,whatifyoudecidetoholdthestockfortwoyears?Inadditiontothedividendinoneyear,youexpectadividendof$2.10intwoyearsandastockpriceof$14.70attheendofyear2.Nowhowmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay?PV=2/(1.2)+(2.10+14.70)/(1.2)2=13.338-66Three-PeriodExampleFinally,whatifyoudecidetoholdthestockforthreeyears?Inadditiontothedividendsattheendofyears1and2,youexpecttoreceiveadividendof$2.205attheendofyear3andthestockpriceisexpectedtobe$15.435.Nowhowmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay?PV=2/1.2+2.10/(1.2)2+(2.205+15.435)/(1.2)3=13.338-77DevelopingTheModelYoucouldcontinuetopushbacktheyearinwhichyouwillsellthestockYouwouldfindthatthepriceofthestockisreallyjustthepresentvalueofallexpectedfuturedividendsSo,howcanweestimateallfuturedividendpayments?8-88EstimatingDividends:

SpecialCasesConstantdividendThefirmwillpayaconstantdividendforeverThisislikepreferredstockThepriceiscomputedusingtheperpetuityformulaConstantdividendgrowthThefirmwillincreasethedividendbyaconstantpercenteveryperiodThepriceiscomputedusingthegrowingperpetuitymodelSupernormalgrowthDividendgrowthisnotconsistentinitially,butsettlesdowntoconstantgrowtheventuallyThepriceiscomputedusingamultistagemodel8-99ZeroGrowthIfdividendsareexpectedatregularintervalsforever,thenthisisaperpetuityandthepresentvalueofexpectedfuturedividendscanbefoundusingtheperpetuityformulaP0=D/RSupposestockisexpectedtopaya$0.50dividendeveryquarterandtherequiredreturnis10%withquarterlycompounding.Whatistheprice?P0=.50/(.1/4)=$208-1010DividendGrowthModelDividendsareexpectedtogrowataconstantpercentperperiod.P0=D1/(1+R)+D2/(1+R)2+D3/(1+R)3+…P0=D0(1+g)/(1+R)+D0(1+g)2/(1+R)2+D0(1+g)3/(1+R)3+…Withalittlealgebraandsomeserieswork,thisreducesto:8-1111DGM–Example1SupposeBigD,Inc.,justpaidadividendof$0.50pershare.Itisexpectedtoincreaseitsdividendby2%peryear.Ifthemarketrequiresareturnof15%onassetsofthisrisk,howmuchshouldthestockbesellingfor?P0=.50(1+.02)/(.15-.02)=$3.928-1212DGM–Example2SupposeTBPirates,Inc.,isexpectedtopaya$2dividendinoneyear.Ifthedividendisexpectedtogrowat5%peryearandtherequiredreturnis20%,whatistheprice?P0=2/(.2-.05)=$13.33Whyisn’tthe$2inthenumeratormultipliedby(1.05)inthisexample?8-1313StockPriceSensitivitytoDividendGrowth,gD1=$2;R=20%8-1414StockPriceSensitivitytoRequiredReturn,RD1=$2;g=5%8-1515Example8.3GordonGrowth

Company-IGordonGrowthCompanyisexpectedtopayadividendof$4nextperiod,anddividendsareexpectedtogrowat6%peryear.Therequiredreturnis16%.Whatisthecurrentprice?P0=4/(.16-.06)=$40Rememberthatwealreadyhavethedividendexpectednextyear,sowedon’tmultiplythedividendby1+g8-1616Example8.3–GordonGrowth

Company-IIWhatisthepriceexpectedtobeinyear4?P4=D4(1+g)/(R–g)=D5/(R–g)P4=4(1+.06)4/(.16-.06)=50.50Whatistheimpliedreturngiventhechangeinpriceduringthefouryearperiod?50.50=40(1+return)4;return=6%PV=-40;FV=50.50;N=4;CPTI/Y=6%Thepriceisassumedtogrowatthesamerateasthedividends8-1717NonconstantGrowth

ProblemStatementSupposeafirmisexpectedtoincreasedividendsby20%inoneyearandby15%intwoyears.Afterthat,dividendswillincreaseatarateof5%peryearindefinitely.Ifthelastdividendwas$1andtherequiredreturnis20%,whatisthepriceofthestock?RememberthatwehavetofindthePVofallexpectedfuturedividends.8-1818NonconstantGrowth

ExampleSolutionComputethedividendsuntilgrowthlevelsoffD1=1(1.2)=$1.20D2=1.20(1.15)=$1.38D3=1.38(1.05)=$1.449FindtheexpectedfuturepriceP2=D3/(R–g)=1.449/(.2-.05)=9.66FindthepresentvalueoftheexpectedfuturecashflowsP0=1.20/(1.2)+(1.38+9.66)/(1.2)2=8.678-1919QuickQuiz–PartIWhatisthevalueofastockthatisexpectedtopayaconstantdividendof$2peryeariftherequiredreturnis15%?Whatifthecompanystartsincreasingdividendsby3%peryear,beginningwiththenextdividend?Therequiredreturnstaysat15%.8-2020UsingtheDGMtoFindRStartwiththeDGM:8-2121FindingtheRequiredReturn-ExampleSupposeafirm’sstockissellingfor$10.50.Itjustpaida$1dividend,anddividendsareexpectedtogrowat5%peryear.Whatistherequiredreturn?R=[1(1.05)/10.50]+.05=15%Whatisthedividendyield?1(1.05)/10.50=10%Whatisthecapitalgainsyield?g=5%8-2222Table8.1-StockValuationSummary8-2323FeaturesofCommonStockVotingRightsProxyvotingClassesofstockOtherRightsShareproportionallyindeclareddividendsShareproportionallyinremainingassetsduringliquidationPreemptiveright–firstshotatnewstockissuetomaintainproportionalownershipifdesired8-2424DividendCharacteristicsDividendsarenotaliabilityofthefirmuntiladividendhasbeendeclaredbytheBoardConsequently,afirmcannotgobankruptfornotdeclaringdividendsDividendsandTaxesDividendpaymentsarenotconsideredabusinessexpense;therefore,theyarenottaxdeductibleThetaxationofdividendsreceivedbyindividualsdependsontheholdingperiodDividendsreceivedbycorporationshaveaminimum70%exclusionfromtaxableincome8-2525FeaturesofPreferredStockDividendsStateddividendthatmustbepaidbeforedividendscanbepaidtocommonstockholdersDividendsarenotaliabilityofthefirm,andpreferreddividendscanbedeferredindefinitelyMostpreferreddividendsarecumulative–anymissedpreferreddividendshavetobepaidbeforecommondividendscanbepaidPreferredstockgenerallydoesnotcarryvotingrights8-2626StockMarketDealersvs.BrokersNewYorkStockExchange(NYSE)LargeststockmarketintheworldLicenseholders(1,366)CommissionbrokersSpecialistsFloorbrokersFloortradersOperationsFlooractivity8-2727NASDAQNotaphysicalexchange–computer-basedquotationsystemMultiplemarketmakersElectronicCommunicationsNetworksThreelevelsofinformationLevel1–medianquotes,registeredrepresentativesLevel2–viewquotes,brokers&dealersLevel3–viewandupdatequotes,dealersonlyLargeportionoftechnologystocks8-2828WorktheWebExampleElectronicCommunicationsNetworksprovidetradinginNASDAQsecuritiesClickonthewebsurferandvisitInstinet8-2929SampleQuote

Whatinformationisprovidedinthestockquote?ClickonthewebsurfertogotoBloombergforcurrentstockquotes.ReadingStockQuotes8-3030QuickQuiz–PartIIYouobserveastockpriceof$18.75.Youexpectadividendgrowthrateof5%,a