《電商零售媒體預測報告》

E-COMMERCE&RETAIL

MEDIAFORECAST

AReportFromGroupM,WPP’sMediaInvestmentGroup

SEPTEMBER2022

2

SEPTEMBER2022?THISYEARNEXTYEARIE-COMMERCE

INTRODUCTION

THESTATEOFRETAIL

RETAILSALES

GLOBALE-COMMERCESALES

MARKETGROWTH

E-COMMERCERANKINGS

DEFININGRETAILMEDIA

GEOGRAPHICTRENDS

CHINA

U.S.

U.K.

GERMANY

JAPAN

CANADA

AUSTRALIA

AUTHOR&CONTRIBUTORS

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SEPTEMBER2022?THISYEARNEXTYEARIE-COMMERCE

INTRODUCTIONTHESTATEOFRETAILMARKETGROWTHGEOGRAPHICTRENDS

INTRODUCTION

Thesmartmoneyfor2022’sWordoftheYearmayverywellbeon“hybrid.”Itencompassessomuchofourcurrentmulti-fronttransformationwhereweareneitherbacktooldformsofcommunication,energy,shoppingandworking,yetneitherarewefullygreen,virtualorautomated.Wearelivinginaworldofhybridworking,hybridcarsandhybridshoppingbehaviors.Retailerswhospunuporinvestedine-commercecapabilitiesduringthepandemic(2020’sWordoftheYear),arecontinuingtotargetevergreaterratiosofe-commercesales.Andyetthetrendlineisn'tsimply"upandtotheright"assomephysicalshoppinghasreturnedinmarketswithhighproductionandadoptionfiguresfortheCOVID-19vaccine(2021’sWordoftheYear).

Thisyear,theunderlyingdigitizationtrendshavebeencomplicatedbyongoingsupplychaindisruptions(andtheresultingcallforde-globalization),soaringinflationanddeceleratingretailsales.Chinahasreducedtheireconomicgrowthestimatesfortheyearamidstrictandlong-lastingCOVID-19containmentstrategiesandarangeofothereconomic

andfinancialrisks.TheU.K.,whichsawamassiveleapin

e-commercesalesandpenetrationaswellasdigitaladvertisingrevenuethroughoutthepandemic,isnowfacingdouble-digitinflationandthespecterofrisinggasandheatingcosts,withthelowestincomehouseholdsdisproportionatelyaffected.YetaswestatedinJune’seditionofThisYearNextYear,itisnotaforegoneconclusionthatweareheadedforawidespreadanddeeprecession.Tounderstandwhereconsumerspending,retailersandadvertisersarelikelytogofromhere,wecanstudythelargestmarketsandcompaniesprovidingdata.

OURANALYSISHASLEDTOTHESEKEYFINDINGS:

1.Weestimateglobale-commercewillmakeup19%ofglobalretailsalesin2022,growingto25%by2027.

2.Twentyofthetopglobale-commercecompaniesaccountedfor67%ofglobale-commercesalesin2021.

3.Globalretailmediaislikelytoreach$101billionin2022(15%higherthanayearago)andwillhit$160billioninannualrevenueinfiveyears’time.

4.Thehigh-watermarkforadvertisingrevenuetodayequatestoapproximately5%ofGMV,whichundertherightcircumstancescouldbeareasonabletargetforotherswhopresentlyfallsomewherebetween0%and3%today.

5.Overthenextonetothreeyears,retailmediawilllikelyseegreatercompetition,morefrequentdecouplingofdatafrominventoryandgreaterparticipationbynon-endemicbrands.

3

4

4

Inthisreportweareableto

pointtonewdatacapturing

themagnitudeandrateof

retailsalesgrowthacrossthe

largestglobalmarketsaswell

astheriseofe-commerce

andretailmediasolutionsat

globalretailerstomeetthe

demandsofbothconsumers

andadvertisers.

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SEPTEMBER2022?THISYEARNEXTYEARIE-COMMERCE

INTRODUCTIONTHESTATEOFRETAILMARKETGROWTHGEOGRAPHICTRENDS

THESTATEOFRETAIL

RETAILSALES

Retailsalesareoftenpointedtoasasignalforthehealthofagiveneconomy,butinmostyears,retailsalesaccountforlessthanhalfofwhatisspentbyconsumersonservices.DuringtheCOVID-19pandemic,however,theratioof“goods”and"services"shifted.Mostconsumersweren’tspendingontransportation,travel,leisureandentertainmentservicesastheynormallywouldhave.Instead,peoplewereequippinghomeoffices,upgradingelectronicsandembarkingonDIYhomeimprovementprojects,shiftingmoreconsumerexpenditureoutofservicesandintogoods.IntheU.S.,consumerspendingongoodsgrewmorethan20%over2019levelsforeachmonthfromMarchthroughDecemberof2021,asthecountryexperiencedlockdownsofvariousdurationsandbreadthandamassiveshifttoworkingfromhome.InAustralia,goodsexpenditurehasoutpacedservicesexpenditureonanindexedbasissinceMarchof2020.

Concurrently,globaladvertisingrevenuerecordedgrowthof24%in2021,allthemoreremarkableasthe2020figurerepresentedonlyasmalldeclineof2%.Theoutsizegrowthofretailsales,theshiftwithinthattoe-commercesalesandthecondensedtimeframeofthosechangeslikelycontributedtogreateradvertisingintensityandadvertisingrevenueasaresult.Advertisingintensitycanbemeasuredastheratioofadvertisingexpensetocompanyrevenue.Itisausefullensthroughwhichtoviewtheeventsofthelasttwoyearsandalsotheplayersdrivingadrevenuegrowthglobally.Ourresearchindicateshigheradvertisingintensityforgoods-andproduct-basedcompaniesversusservicescompanies,helpingillustratewhy2021wassuchabanneryearforadvertisinggrowth.

“U.S.consumer

spendingongoods

grewmorethan

20%over2019levels

foreachmonthfrom

Marchthrough

Decemberof2021.”

6

$28.3TN

GLOBALRETAILSALES

Today,e-commerce,afterasurgeofinvestmentandadoptionduringthepandemic,isfindingitsplaceinaworldwherein-personactivitiesareresumingevenwhilepandemic-relatedlockdownsinChinaandsupplychainbottlenecksthereandinwar-tornUkrainehavecontributedtoadragongrowthinthefirsthalfof2022.Wenowpredictthate-commercewillrepresent19%ofglobalretail

GLOBALADREVENUE2022

$101BN

RETAILMEDIA

$843BN

GLOBALADREVENUE

$5.4TN

E-COMMERCESALES

SEPTEMBER2022?THISYEARNEXTYEARIE-COMMERCE

INTRODUCTIONTHESTATEOFRETAILMARKETGROWTHGEOGRAPHICTRENDS

THESTATEOFRETAIL

GLOBALE-COMMERCE

SALES

E-commercesalesareasubsetofglobalretailsales,andwhile

retailsalesfiguresareregularlyreportedbygovernment

agencies,notallmarketsprovidefiguresfore-commercesales

asexpeditiously.Ourmodelestimatesglobale-commercesales

of$5.4trilliondollarsthisyear.ChinaandtheU.S.alonewill

makeup52%ofthefigure,andnearly61%ofthetotal,

$3.3trillion,canbeattributedtojustsevenmarkets:theU.S.,

China,Japan,Germany,theU.K.,CanadaandAustralia.By

2027weestimatee-commercesaleswillreach$9.1trillion.This

figureincludessalesofautosandautoparts,aswellasgasoline,

butexcludesfoodservicesorcateringsalestoproducelike-for-

likecomparisonsacrossalltrackedmarkets.

GLOBAL

RETAIL2022

“-lobwisalet%

salesin2022,upfrom18%in

2021and2020.

Supportedby$101billioninretailmedia.

1OECD7

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022E

2023E

2024E

2025E

2026E

2027E

MARKET

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

China

Global

U.K.

U.S.

Germany

Japan

Australia

Canada

SEPTEMBER2022?THISYEARNEXTYEARIE-COMMERCE

INTRODUCTIONTHESTATEOFRETAILMARKETGROWTHGEOGRAPHICTRENDS

GlobalE-CommerceSales

as%TotalRetailSales

30.0%

5.0%

0.0%

GlobalE-CommercePenetration-2022ForecastGlobalE-CommercePenetration-2020Forecast

Source:GroupM,GovernmentData

Tolookattheyearlye-commercepenetrationnumbersbymarketistoseethetimelineofthepandemicplayedoutinpeaksandtroughs.China,where

e-commercesalesjumpedtomorethan26%ofallretailsalesin2020asCOVID-19promptedshutdownsacrossWuhan,actuallysawe-commercepenetrationfallin2021asthecountryeasedrestrictions.Theratioofe-commercesalesisexpectedtoriseagainin2022,to27%,duetovariousshutdownsimposedbytheChinesegovernmentinShanghai,ChengduandseveralportcitiesaspartofitsCOVID-19zerotolerancepolicy.However,thisisagainstabackdropofsloweroverallgrowthofretailsalesasmultiplefactorsstuntconsumerspendingande-commerceisexpectedtoleveloutintheensuingyears.TheU.K.bycomparison,whichsawthelargeste-commerceadoptionspikeofourtrackedmarketsin2020—47%growth—spentmuchof2021invariouslevelsoflockdownbuthasresumedrelativenormalcyin2022andisexpectedtoreportadeclinein

e-commercepenetrationto18%in2022(versus20%in2021).TheU.S.hasunsurprisinglyseenmoremoderateandconsistentgrowthaslockdownstherewereprimarilyatthelocalorstatelevel,andneverreachedtheseverityorsizeofChina’slockdowns.

E-commerceintheU.S.isforecasttorepresent17%ofallretailsalesthisyear,asignificantincreaseoverthe11%figurein2019.

Amongthemajorglobalmarketswehavehighlightedinthisreport,onlythreeareforecasttosee10%orlowere-commercepenetrationin2022:Australia,JapanandCanada.Japan,whileboastingthethird-largestglobaleconomyandalonghistoryoftechnologicalinnovation,alsolaysclaimtotheoldestpopulation,with29%ofitspopulationage65orolderasof2021,apotentialdragonadoption.1AustraliaandCanada,whilerelativelyyounger,havepopulationsspreadacrosslargeandnotverydenseterritories.AndCanada,despitebeinghometoShopify,isforecasttolagbehindallothertrackedmarketsine-commercepenetrationthrough2027,whenitcouldstillseesub-10%ofallretailsales.

Itisimportanttonotethatthelineisbecoming

increasinglyblurredbetweenphysicalsalesand

e-commercesales,especiallyfollowingtheCOVID-eraexplosionofretailofferingssuchasbuyonlinepickupinstore(BOPIS),click-and-collectorin-storecontactlessmobilephonepayments.Thisblurrinessmayrendere-commercepenetrationlessmeaningfulinthefutureasitbecomeshardertodistinguishwhichchanneltocreditforsales.Whatismorecertainisthatomnichannelstrategiesmustbederigueurforretailersandadvertisersgoingforward.

E-CommercePenetration

byMarket(2022)

0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%

E-COMMERCE%OFRETAILSALES

Source:GroupM,GovernmentData

Note:Includesautoandpartssalesandgasoline,excludesfoodservices

8

Photo:Alibaba

Unsurprisingly,Chineseretailersmakeupthreeofthetopfiveretailersbyglobale-commercegrossmerchandisevalue(GMV)withAmazonandeBayroundingouttheothertwospots(thoughShopifywouldreplaceeBayat#5ifincluded).Alibabaistheundisputedleaderandcountsmorethandoublethee-commerceGMVofthenumbertwo,Amazon.Alibabahasdominatedthemobilecommerceandpayments

ecosystemwithAlipay(alongwithTencentcompetitorWeChat),andcertainlybenefitedfromheavyadoptionofmobileshoppingduringtheCOVID-19outbreaksinChinain2020andspringof2022.

Alibaba,alongwithPinduoduo,eBayandMercadoLibreactprimarilyasmarketplaces,meaningthattheyfacilitatematchingconsumerswithsellersandearnrevenueasapercentageofthesaleprice,orviaadditionalofferedservicessuchaslogistics,warehousingandadvertising.Othersonthelistprimarilysell

goodsintheirowninventory,suchasTarget,BestBuy,WayfairandWalmart.Amazonmixesbothmodels.Salesfromthird-partysellers

haverapidlygrownasapercentageofAmazon’sGMV,andourestimatesputthatratioat65%in2021.

SEPTEMBER2022?THISYEARNEXTYEARIE-COMMERCE

INTRODUCTIONTHESTATEOFRETAILMARKETGROWTHGEOGRAPHICTRENDS

MARKETGROWTH

“Alibabaistheundisputed

leaderwithmorethandoublethee-commerceGMVofAmazon.”

E-COMMERCECOMPANYRANKINGS

Aswithourflagshipadvertisingforecast,ThisYearNextYear,wherewebuildouranalysisonthehealthofmediasellers,forthisforecastwehaveexaminedthelargeste-commerceretailersgloballytounderstandthehealthandgrowthofthesector.Tokeeptheanalysisfocused,andinanattempttocomparelike-for-likedata,wehaveincludedretailerssellingownedinventoryaswellasmarketplaces.Wehaveexcludedcompaniesprimarilyfocusedonlastmilerestaurantdeliveryasfoodservicesarealsoomittedfromour

e-commercesalesdata.Inaddition,wehaveexcludedadvertisingservicescompanieslikeCriteo—tolimitthedouble-countingofretailmedia—aswellassoftwareproviderslikeShopifyandsalesthroughGoogleShoppingorsocialcommerceplayerslikeMetaandTikTok.

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INTRODUCTIONTHESTATEOFRETAILMARKETGROWTHGEOGRAPHICTRENDS

Thereisnodoubtthatthepandemicliftedthefortunesofanye-commerceretaileralreadyestablished,orreadytoinvestinbecomingestablishedduringthefirstyearofthepandemic.ForourE-CommerceTop20,themedianGMVgrowthratein2020wasanimpressive60%year-over-year.Andthereremainedplentyofheadroomforamediangrowthrateof21%in2021.Weestimatethatthisnumberwilldeceleratemeaningfullyin2022aslifeinmanycountriesreturnstoincorporatemoreofflineactivities,assupplychainshortagescontinuetolimittheavailabilityofcertaingoodsandashighinflationmaintainsitsgriponmanylargeeconomies.Wealsoexpectdemandforsomeproductcategories,includingelectronics,fitnessequipment,householdgoodsandfurniture,tosoftenafterstimuluspayments(insomecountries)andnewhome-basedworkandlifeledtopandemicbuyingsprees.

Thebenefitsofe-commercegrowthoverthelastsixyearshavebecomemoreconcentratedamongourTop20,whichrepresentedjust49%ofglobale-commercesalesin2016butaccountedfor67%ofthosesalesin2021.ExcludingtheChineseretailersfromthisanalysis,wecanseethatconcentrationisstillincreasing,buthasn’treachednearlythesamelevelwithourtop16ex-Chinacompaniesrepresenting32%ofe-commercesalesin2021,upfrom24%in2016.

TopE-CommerceCompanies(USD$Billions)

“In2020,themedian

e-commerceGMV

growthrateforthesecompanieswas60%year-over-year.”

E-CommerceGMV

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Alibaba

541.4

664.9

802.3

942.0

1,123.2

1,249.0

Amazon

179.3

230.0

278.6

337.6

491.9

602.0

JD

94.8

199.0

243.9

299.5

400.4

505.3

Pinduoduo

4.1

20.6

68.6

144.6

255.6

383.0

eBay

81.4

84.1

88.2

88.3

87.6

85.0

Walmart

13.7

19.6

25.1

39.7

64.9

73.2

Shopee

1.3

4.1

10.3

17.6

35.4

62.6

Rakuten

19.7

22.3

24.9

25.6

29.6

32.8

MercadoLibre

8.0

12.0

12.5

14.0

20.9

28.4

Vipshop

11.3

15.8

19.2

21.0

22.7

26.0

Instacart

0.3

0.6

1.5

4.3

13.2

22.4

TheHomeDepot

5.3

6.4

8.1

9.8

18.4

20.0

Target

3.1

3.9

5.3

6.8

16.5

19.8

BestBuy

6.3

6.5

7.1

8.3

20.4

17.8

Coupang

1.5

2.2

3.8

5.8

11.0

16.5

Zalando

4.3

5.3

6.6

8.2

10.7

14.4

Costco

4.7

5.2

5.7

6.8

10.6

13.9

Wayfair

3.4

4.6

6.8

9.1

14.1

13.7

Etsy

2.8

3.3

3.9

5.0

10.3

13.5

Kroger

1.7

3.2

5.0

6.5

13.9

13.5

GlobalE-CommerceSales

2,028.0

2,442.7

2,918.7

3,385.8

4,156.1

4,802.7

TotalTop20As%ofGlobalE-Commerce

48.7%

53.8%

55.8%

59.1%

64.3%

66.9%

Source:GroupM,CompanyFilings

4

15

16

13

8

17

20

14

3

18

6

5

19

1

11

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SEPTEMBER2022?THISYEARNEXTYEARIE-COMMERCE

INTRODUCTIONTHESTATEOFRETAILMARKETGROWTHGEOGRAPHICTRENDS

TOPE-COMMERCECOMPANIESIN2021

2

10

7

9

EASTASIA

(USD$INBILLIONS)

NORTHAMERICA

2AMAZON

E-CommerceGMV……602.0

5EBAY

E-CommerceGMV….…..85.0

6WALMART

E-CommerceGMV….…..73.2

11INSTACART

E-CommerceGMV……..22.4

12THEHOMEDEPOT

E-CommerceGMV……..20.0

13TARGET

E-CommerceGMV.……..19.8

14BESTBUY

E-CommerceGMV……...17.8

17COSTCO

E-CommerceGMV……..13.9

18WAYFAIR

E-CommerceGMV……..13.7

19ETSY

E-CommerceGMV……..13.5

20KROGER

E-CommerceGMV……..13.5

LATINAMERICA

9MERCADOLIBRE

E-CommerceGMV….….28.4

EUROPE

16ZALANDO

E-CommerceGMV……..14.4

1ALIBABA

E-CommerceGMV.…1,249.0

3JD

E-CommerceGMV…....505.3

4PINDUODUO

E-CommerceGMV…...383.0

8RAKUTEN

E-CommerceGMV……...32.8

10VIPSHOP

E-CommerceGMV….….26.0

15COUPANG

E-CommerceGMV……...16.5

SOUTHEASTASIA

7SHOPEE

E-CommerceGMV……...62.6

Source:GroupM,CompanyFilings-2021Data10

SEPTEMBER2022?THISYEARNEXTYEARIECOMMERCE

INTRODUCTIONTHESTATEOFRETAILMARKETGROWTHGEOGRAPHICTRENDS

MARKETGROWTH

DEFININGRETAILMEDIA

OURDEFINITION

Forthepurposesofthisreport,wedefineretailmediarevenueas:

anyadvertisingrevenueaccruingtoaretail-basedcompany,includingmarketplaces.Wehaveexcludedpure-playmarketingsolutions,softwareprovidersandadtechcompaniessuchasShopify,PacvueandCriteo(thisalsohelpsavoiddoublecountingwherethesecompaniesusegrossrevenuefigures).Wehavealsoexcludedrevenuefromnon-retail-basedcompaniescomprisingsearchandsocialcommercerevenueincludingGoogleShopping,YahooShoppingandInstagramShopping.

COMMERCEINMEDIA

11

PerformanceMedia

drivesaconnected&measurableactionoroutcome

CommerceMedia

drivestheactivityof

consumerpurchase

ShopperRetail

drivestheactivityof

consumerpurchase

E-Retail

drivessalesonpartner

properties()

E-Commerce

drivessalesononline

DTC

drivessaleson

SocialCommerce

drivessalesthroughsocialplatforms

PERFORMANCE

MEDIA

COMMERCE

MEDIA

AWARENESSMEDIA

E-RETAIL

Drivetostore

(foottraffic)

SOCIAL

COMMERCE

AFFILIATES

SHOPPER

RETAIL

BRANDMEDIA

E-COMMERCE

DTC

SEPTEMBER2022?THISYEARNEXTYEARIE-COMMERCE

INTRODUCTIONTHESTATEOFRETAILMARKETGROWTHGEOGRAPHICTRENDS

“l(fā)ebulairledia$101billionin2022.”

Retailmedia,consideredatestandlearnenvironmentnotsolongago,hasmorerecentlybecomeagrowinglineitemonmanymarketerbudgets.Thereremainsignificantdisparitiesincapabilitydepth,dataqualityandpartnershipsacrossglobalmarketsandwithinretailchannels,butthepromiseofretailerfirst-partydata,albeitresidinginyetanotherwalledgarden,istantalizing—enablingpurchase-basedtargetingandclosedloopmeasurement.

GroupMestimatesthatglobaladvertisingrevenueforretail-basedcompanieswas$88billionin2021andwillreach$101billionthisyear.Thisamountsto18%ofglobaldigitaladvertisingand11%oftotaladvertising.Asapercentageofglobale-commerceGMV,thisamountsto1.8%.Weexpectretailmediaadvertisingtoincreaseroughly60%by2027.Thisexceedsthegrowthrateexpectedforalldigitaladvertising,meaningthatretailmediawilltakeanincreasingshareofdigitaladrevenueoverthenextfiveyears.

“Thisamountsto18%ofglobaldigitaladvertising

&11%oftotaladvertising.”

Onlysomeofthecompaniesinourcompositediscloseadvertisingrevenue,andofthosethatdo,mostonlyrecentlybegandisclosingafigure.WeestimateAmazonasbeingatthefarendofthespectrumwhenitcomestoadvertisingrevenueasapercentageofe-commerceGMV.WhileAmazondoesn’tdisclosehowmuchoftheirtotaladvertisingrevenuecomesfromcommerce-relatedactivity(ascomparedtoadvertisingrevenuefromsportsprogramming,forexample),wewouldcharacterizethevastmajorityofthatrevenuetobedirectlyattributabletoe-commerceorinformedbythecompany’sfirst-partyretaildata,andequaltoroughly5%ofe-commerceGMV.

This5%high-watermarkforadvertisingrevenuecouldbeareasonabletargetforothers(whopresentlyfallsomewherebetween0%and3%today),althoughitwillbedependentonaretailer’sabilitytobuildouttheirmediaproductofferingsgloballyinordertocreatecompetitionamongsignificantnumbersofmanufacturersfortheprivilegeofreachingprospects,andfurtherdevelopingaplatformtosellimpressionstonon-endemicmarketers.Scalingupinventorybypartneringwithpublisherswhocanusetheretailer’sdatatocreateheightenedvalueinmediaimpressionsisanotherfactor.Weestimatethatretailmediawillcontinuetogrow,despiterecentsoftnessinoveralle-commerce,drivenbynon-endemicbrandsaswellastypicalretailbrands.

12

13

USD$INBILLIONS

PERCENTAGE%GROWTHYOY

SEPTEMBER2022?THISYEARNEXTYEARIE-COMMERCE

INTRODUCTIONTHESTATEOFRETAILMARKETGROWTHGEOGRAPHICTRENDS

PROLIFERATIONOFRETAILMEDIANETWORKS“Retailerswithhighlyadopted

astrongerposition.”

EXPANSIONOFUSECASES

Inearlyretailmediaprograms,themajorityofadvertisinginventorylivedonaretailer’sowned-and-operatedplatforms,however“off-site”opportunitieshaveopenedupadditionalinventoryandbudgets.Goingforward,someretailersareexperimentingwiththeseparationoftheirdataandadinventoryentirely,amovethatoffersbrandsadditionalflexibilityaspartners,butalsoriskscommoditization.Retailersthatarebetterabletotracesales,forexamplethosewithhighlyadoptedloyaltyprograms,arelikelyinastrongerposition.

Separatingoutretaildatafrominventorycouldalsoleadtonon-endemicbrandsadvertisingingreaternumbers,providedthatthepremiumbeingpaidtoactivateonretaildataissupportedbyanequalorgreaterincreaseinperformance.

loyaltyprogramsarelikelyin

ofretailmedianetworksandspecialistadtechfirms.

Retailerssoughthighermarginadvertisingbusinesses,

andase-commercepenetrationshotupthrough2020

and2021,therewerefrequentannouncementsofnew

retailmedianetworks,includingfromnon-retailers—

Doordash,UberandMeituanareallbuildingouttheir

mediaofferings.Wehaven’tincludedthemhere,asour

definitionfore-commercesalesexcludesserviceslike

restaurantdeliveryandride-sharing,whichstillmake

upthemajorityofadvertisingrevenuefortheseservices,

butincreaseddeliveriesoffoodandothergoodswill

likelymakethemsizableadditionsinfutureiterations

oftheforecast.

Whileweexpecttheproliferationofthesenetworks

tocontinueintheyearstocome,thereisalsoan

expectationofinevitablerationalizationacrossnetworks

andtechnologies.Scalability,differentiationandstaying

power,particularlyinthecontextofthebroadereconomic

situation,willbethebattlegroundformanyofthenewer

networksandtheirsupportingtechnologies.

160.0

140.0

120.0

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0

RetailMediaForecast

20212022E2023E

Source:GroupM,CompanyFilings

2024EYEAR

2025E2026E2027E

RetailMediaRevenueGrowth

24.0%

20.0%

16.0%

12.0%

8.0%

4.0%

0.0%

FUTUREOFRETAILMEDIA

Fuelingthenearly60%growthofretailmediaoverthenextfiveyearsareanumberoffactors—theexpansionofusecasesandgrowthofnon-endemicbrandsmentionedabove,aswellaspotentialshiftsfromoutsideoftraditionalsalesandmarketingbudgets,incorporatingincrementalspendfromothermediachannels.

FREQUENCYOFBUYINGONLINE

LiveStreaming

33%

onceevery

fewdays

1%

onceevery

fewmonths

9%

oncea

month

3%

>1xday

2%

lessoften

14

Source:GroupM’sConsumerEyesurvey,amonge-commerceshoppers

17%

onceevery

twoweeks

SEPTEMBER2022?THISYEARNEXTYEARIE-COMMERCE

INTRODUCTIONTHESTATEOFRETAILMARKETGROWTHGEOGRAPHICTRENDS

GEOGRAPHICTRENDS

CHINA

In2022,weestimateChina’se-commercemarketwillgrowby5.6%,slowerthanlastyear’sgrowthof10%.Fortheyear,weestimatethattotalretailwillamounttoCN￥40trillion,withe-commerceaccountingfor27%ofthisfigure.Overthenextfiveyears,growthwilltrackinlinewithretailsalesgrowth,meaningthate-commercepenetrationwillremainrelativelyflatthrough2027versusthe19%growthfrom2016through2021.By2027retailsaleswillamounttoCN￥52trillionwith27%ofretailoccurringviae-commercechannels.

%OFONLINEPURCHASESMADEVIATHEVARIOUSTYPESOFONLINESTORES

49%

12%

11%

9%

9%

5%

5%

OnlineShoppingPlatformsRetailer'sOwnPlatforms

SuperApps

Brand'sOwnPlatforms

SocialNetworkingPlatformsC2CMarketplace

TOP3ONLINESHOPPINGPLATFORMADS

35%35%34%

LiveStreamsMessagesPush-notifications

toplatformsfromapp

TOP3PRODUCTCATEGORIESBOUGHTONLINE

INPAST12MONTHS

53%

Beauty&

PersonalCare

62%56%

GroceriesHousehold

37%

onceaweek

2016

2017

2018

20