凈零轉(zhuǎn)型：從巴黎到格拉斯哥直至未來 Net Zero Transition from Paris to Glasgow and Beyond

ChinaDevelopmentForumEngagementInitiative

NetZeroTransition:fromParistoGlasgowandBeyond

BloombergNEF

TheNovember2021GlasgowClimatePactreaffirmedthe2015ParisAgreementwithastrongeremphasisonlimitingtheglobalaveragetemperatureriseto1.5°Cbytheendofthiscenturyrelativetopre-industriallevels.Toachievethis,globalemissionswillhavetoreachnetzerobymidcentury.Thisreportexamineswhethertheemissionsreductiontargetssetbycountriesarealignedwithachievingthisgoal.Italsoexaminesthreescenariosforhowtheworldcouldeliminateenergyemissions.

Theglobalaveragesurfacetemperaturehasalreadyrisenbyanaverageof

1.1°C.Basedoncurrenttrends,weareontracktorunoutoftheemissionsbudgettostaywithin2°Cofwarmingin2044.Assoonas2028,wewillhaveexhaustedtheemissionsbudgettostaywithin1.5°C.Ifallcountries’2030emissionreductiontargets,includingconditionaltargetsandlong-termdecarbonizationtargetssuchasChina’sgoalofcarbonneutralitybefore2060,areachieved,theworldwilllikelybeinlinewithariseof1.8°Cbytheendofthiscentury.

Toachieveglobalnetzero,everysectoroftheenergyeconomyneedsto

eliminateemissionscompletelybymid-century.Therecanbenofreeriders.Eventhehardest-to-abatesectorswillneedtoadoptcarbon-freesolutions,onlyturningtocarbonremovalswhereabsolutelynecessary.InourlatestNewEnergyOutlook,wehaveconstructedthreescenarioscompliantwithnet-zerocarbonbudgetsforeachsectoroftheenergyeconomythatachievestheParisClimateAgreementandsatisfiestheprincipleofanorderlytransition,withtherateandtimingofabatementvaryingdependingonthecurrentemissionstrajectoryandavailableabatementoptionsinthenearterm.

GreenScenariodescribesapathwaywheregreateruseofcleanelectricityin

theend-useeconomyiscomplementedbysocalled“greenhydrogen”producedfromwater,usingelectrolyzerspoweredbywindandPV.GrayScenariohasemissionsfromfossilfuelsabatedusingpost-combustioncarboncaptureandstoragetechnology,inadditiontogrowthinelectricityuseandrenewablepower.RedScenariodeployssmaller,moremodular,nucleartocomplementwind,solarandbatterytechnologyinthepowersector,and

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manufactureso-calledredhydrogenwithdedicatednuclearpowerplants.

Thedecadeto2030willplayacriticalroleinthepathwaytonet-zeroglobal

emissionsby2050.Around78%oftheabatementthisdecadeislikelytobeachievedbythepowersector.Theavailabilityofeconomicsolutions,suchaswind,solarandbatteries,meansthepowersectorcancutemissionsmorequicklythanotherindustries.

Figure1:2021investmentinenergytransitionversusrequiredannualinvestmentin2022-25and2026-30undernet-zeroscenarios

Source:BloombergNEF

1.FromParistoGlasgow

The

ParisAgreement

resultingfromthe2015UnitedNationsClimateChangeConference,COP21,committedtheworldto“Holdingtheincreaseintheglobalaveragetemperaturetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevelsandpursuingeffortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels”.Toexploretheimplicationsofthe1.5°CstretchgoaloftheParisAgreement,theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)in2018publisheda

special

reportonGlobalWarmingof1.5°C.TheIPCCreportconcludedthatmeetingthe1.5°CstretchgoaloftheParisAgreementwillrequirethatglobalgreenhousegasemissionsfallto‘netzero’bymid-century.Afterpublicationofthisreport,manygovernmentsaroundtheworldstartedannouncingnetzerogoals.

Figure2:Globalgreenhousegasemissionscoveredbynet-zeroandcarbonneutralitytargets

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Source:WRICAIT,BloombergNEF.Note:Includeslanduse,land-usechangeandforestry,2018

BytheendofOctober2021,ontheeveofCOP26inGlasgow,almost80%ofglobalemissionswerecoveredbythesedecarbonizationgoals(includinggoalsinforceorunderdiscussion).DuringCOP26newannouncementsbycountriessuchasIndiaandVietnampushedthecoveragetoalmost90%,althoughthetargetdateofthesedecarbonizationgoalswidelyvary.

The

GlasgowClimatePact

’sfirstthreemitigationelementsfurtherreinforcedtheParisAgreement1.5°Cstretchgoalbystating:

“15.Reaffirmsthelong-termglobalgoaltoholdtheincreaseintheglobalaveragetemperaturetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevelsandtopursueeffortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels,recognizingthatthiswouldsignificantlyreducetherisksandimpactsofclimatechange;

16.Recognizesthattheimpactsofclimatechangewillbemuchloweratthetemperatureincreaseof1.5°Ccomparedwith2°C,andresolvestopursueeffortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°C;

17.Alsorecognizesthatlimitingglobalwarmingto1.5°Crequiresrapid,deepandsustainedreductionsinglobalgreenhousegasemissions,includingreducingglobalcarbondioxideemissionsby45percentby2030relativetothe2010levelandtonetzeroaroundmid-century,aswellasdeepreductionsinothergreenhousegases;”

Whilemomentumforachievingnetzerohasincreased,countries’2030emissionreductiontargets–theso-calledNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDC)undertheParisAgreement–arestillnotontargettoreduceglobalemissionsby45%by2030relativeto2010.However,theNDCsaregraduallybecomingmore

ambitious.BeforetheParisAgreement,theworldwasontrackto4-5OCofglobalwarmingbytheendofthecentury.Subsequently,the2016IntendedNationally

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DeterminedContributions(thepredecessortoNDCs)wouldhavemeantthat2030emissionswere23.5-29.5%above2010levels,meaningatemperatureincreaseofsome3OCbycentury-end.However,thelatestsetofcommitmentsmadebythestartofCOP26bringtheworldclosertoimplysome2.7OCofwarming.Thiswouldstillmeanglobalemissionsin2030are22%higherthan2010levels,or16%higherifdevelopingcountries’conditionsonfinancialandothersupportaremet.

Figure3:Changeinglobalgreenhousegasemissionsfrom2010levelsimpliedbyclimateplans

Source:UNNDCSynthesisReports,BloombergNEF.

Someannouncementshavebeenmoreoptimistic,withtheInternationalEnergyAgencyestimatingthatthemostrecentpledgeswouldbeinlinewithariseof1.8OC.However,thisanalysistakesaccountofcountries’long-termplans,assumingtheybegintotakesufficientactionnowtoachievethosegoals(whichisn’tthecaseformanynations),aswellastheGlobalMethanePledge.

2.Thecarbonbudgetforenergy

Inthissectionweconsiderthecarbonbudgetfortheenergysector.Energyemissionsrose0.9%year-on-yearinthefiveyearsto2020.Basedoncurrenttrends,weareontracktorunoutofemissionsbudgettostaywithin2°Cofwarmingin2044.Andassoonas2028,wewillhaveexhaustedtheemissionsbudgettostaywithin1.5°C.Thisunderlinestheneedforimmediate,concretepolicyactiontoacceleratedecarbonizationtoday:achievingmid-centuryclimategoalswillnotbesufficient,unlessintermediatemilestonesarealsohit.

Toachieveglobalnet-zero,everysectoroftheenergyeconomyneedstoeliminate

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emissionscompletelybymid-century.Therecanbenofreeriders.Eventhehardest-to-abatesectorswillneedtoadoptcarbon-freesolutions,onlyturningtocarbonremovalswhereabsolutelynecessary.

Wehaveconstructednet-zerocarbonbudgetsforeachsectoroftheenergyeconomythatachievestheParisClimateAgreementandsatisfiestheprincipleofanorderlytransition,withtherateandtimingofabatementvaryingdependingoncurrentemissionstrajectoryandavailableabatementoptionsinthenearterm.Theresultantbudgetrequiresemissionstofall30%below2019levelsby2030,andtodrop75%by2040toreachzeroin2050.Thepowersectorgoesfastest,followinga1.6°Cequivalentbudgetthatseesemissionsdown57%from2019levelsin2030,andthen89%in2040.

Roadtransportemissionsdrop11%by2030beforethisacceleratesduringthe2030storeach80%below2019levelsin2040.Residentialandcommercialbuildingsfollowamorelineartrajectory,down16%below2019levelsby2030

and58%by2040.Harder-to-abatesectorssuchasaviation,steelandcementgoslowest,cappingemissionsgrowththisdecadebeforealineardeclinetozeromid-century.

Figure4:Energyemissionsandnetzerocarbonbudget,bysector

Source:BloombergNEF

3.Gettingontrackto2030

Theyearsbetweennowand2030arecriticalintheracetonetzero.Fortheworldtogetontrack,therewillneedtobeanimmediate,unprecedentedaccelerationin

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deploymentofexistingtechnologies,suchasrenewableenergyandelectricvehicles.Inparallel,newtechnologiesneedtobecommerciallydemonstratedandscaledup,inordertobereadyformassivedeploymentbeforethedecadeisout.

MorethanthreequartersoftheabatementeffortinthisperiodfallstothepowersectorandthefasterdeploymentofwindandsolarPV.Another16%isachievedviagreateruseofelectricityintransport,buildingheatandtoprovidelower-temperatureheatinindustry.Greaterrecyclinginsteel,aluminumandplasticsaccountsfor4%,andgrowthofbioenergyforsustainableaviationfuelandshippinganother1%.

Gettingontrackforthepowersector,meansaddingupto505GWofnewwind,455GWofnewsolarand245GWhnewbatterystorageonaverageeveryyearto2030underourGreenScenario.Thisisover5.2-timestheamountofwindcapacityaddedin2020,3.2-timestheamountofsolarand26-timestheamountofbatterystorage.By2030,thataddsuptoatotalof5.8TWofinstalledwind,5.3TWofinstalledPV,and2.5TWhofbatteries.Thesetotalsareupeightfold,ninefoldand176-foldfrom2020levels,respectively.Atthesametime,morethan100GWofcoal-firedcapacityneedstoretireonaverageeachyearsothatby2030coal-firedpoweris67-72%below2019levels.Capitalflowsneedtoacceleratemarkedlytoo.Newinvestmentinwindandsolarcapacityhasbeenflatataround$300billionperyearforseveralyears.Thisfigureneedstorisetobetween$763billionto$1.8trillionperyearbetween2021and2030dependingonscenario,togetontrackfornetzero.

Gettingontrackfortransportmeansaddinganaverageof35millionelectricvehicleseachyearsothatby2030thereare355millionEVsandemissionsfromtheroadsegmentare11%below2019levels.Atthesametime,sustainableaviationfuelsneedtoincreaseto10%oftotaljetfueluseby2030,andgreateremphasisneedstobeplacedonoperationalefficiencyinshippingaswellasincreasingbiofuelsuseto4%offuelconsumption.

Gettingontrackforbuildingsmeansaddinganaverageof18millionnewheatpumpseachyearto2030,or186millionbytheendofthedecade,whilealsocontinuingtoimprovebuildingefficiency.

Figure5:Totalenergyemissionsandabatementto2030,bysource,allscenarios

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Source:BloombergNEF

Gettingontrackforindustrymeansincreasingtheamountofaluminumthatisrecycledby67%from2020levels.Forsteeltherequiredimprovementinrecyclingis44%moreby2030comparedwith2020levels.Andforplastics,recyclingneedstorise149%from2020levelsby2030.Thisscrapisthenfeedstockforlower-energyandlower-emissionssecondaryproduction,whichaccountsfor43%oftotalsteel,37%ofaluminumand22%ofplasticsproductionin2030.

Gettingontrackalsomeansincreasingelectricityto50%ofenergyuseinlower-temperatureprocessesthisdecade.

Hydrogen,CCSandnewnucleartechnologiesdonotplayameaningfulabatementroleinthe2020s,butgettingthemtoscaleisacriticaltaskforthisdecade.InourGreenScenario,1.9TWofelectrolyzersneedtogetdeployedby2030tokickstartthehydrogensector.InourGrayScenario,936Mtofcarboncaptureandstorageisinplaceby2030.InourRedScenario,thefirstsmallmodularnuclearreactorsareonlineby2027,and390GWaredeployedby2030.Withouthittingthesemilestones,itwillbedifficulttoachievetheratesofdeploymentneededintherespectivescenariosinthe2030sand2040s.

4.Gettingtonet-zeroin2050

Thecentralfeatureofeachscenarioistheswitchtoelectricityintheend-useeconomy.Thisreducesdirectemissionsintransport,buildingsandindustry,anddespiteincreasingelectricitydemandandemissionsupstreaminthepowersector,electricitygenerationisgenerallycleanerthandownstreamfossil-fueluse,

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resultinginanetreduction.Atthesametime,ongoingdeploymentofzero-carbonpowerimprovesthisequationovertime.

Allscenariosincludeincreasedrecyclingforsteel,aluminumandchemicals,aswellasfasterconsumeruptakeofrooftopPVsystemsandsmallbatteries.WeincludecarbonremovalalongsideCCStooffsetresidualemissionsinthisprocess,andasmallamountofremovalinthenextdecadeforsectorswherewedon’tseeviableabatementoptions,suchasincementproduction.

InourGreenScenario,cleanelectricityaccountsfor61%oftotalabatementto2050.Greaterelectricityuseintheformofelectricvehicles,heatpumps,andlower-temperatureindustrialprocessesaddsanother23%.Hydrogenintheend-useeconomyaccountsforafurther10%oftotalabatement.Thisincludeshigh-temperatureheatinindustrialprocessessuchassteelmaking,chemicalsandcement;aviation,shipping,someroadandrail,andhydrogenusedinboilersforspaceandwaterheating.Combininghydrogeninpowergenerationandtheend-useeconomy,itmakesupalmostaquarter,or19%,oftotalemissionsreduction.

AbatementintheGrayScenarioisagaindominatedbycleanpower,whichaccountsfor61%oftotalemissionsreductionsto2050.Thistimecarboncaptureandstorage(CCS)allowscoalandgastocontinuetoplayasignificantrole.CombiningCCSinpowergenerationandtheend-useeconomy,itmakesup18%oftotalemissionsreductiontonet-zerointhisscenario.Bioenergyintheend-useeconomyplaysalargerroleinthisscenario,particularlyinaviationandshipping,accountingfor3%oftotalabatement.Increasedrecyclingandsecondarymanufacturinginindustryaccountsforafurther3%,andasmallamountofbluehydrogeninindustryandtransport,at3%.

AbatementintheRedScenariolookssimilartoabatementintheGreenScenario,apartfromachangeinthepowersector,whereanuclearrenaissancereducesthevolumeofrenewables,anditshighercapacityfactorandlimitedflexibilitynegatestheneedforhydrogen-firedgenerationtomeetseasonaldemand,butincreasestheuseofbatteries.Cleanelectricityaccountsfor61%oftotalabatementto2050.Ofthis,windpowermakesup41%,solar20%,nuclear26%andotherzero-emissionspower,includinghydro,some13%.

4.1Finalenergyconsumption

Finalenergyconsumptiondeclinesineachofourscenariosasacombinationofdemand-sideenergyefficiency,morerecycling,ashiftawayfromoilproducts,andgreateruseofelectricitymeanslessenergyisneededevenasdemandformobility,heatingandmanufacturinggrowswithpopulationandwealth.

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Ineachofourscenarios,ashifttoelectricityintheend-useeconomyplaysacentralroleinthetransition,increasingtoaround49%offinalenergyconsumptionby2050.Thisshiftismostprominentinroadtransport,whereelectricvehiclescometodominate,andinbuildings,whereconventionaloil-andgas-firedheatingsystemsarereplacedwithelectricones.Thereisalsoaswitchto

electricityinlow-temperatureindustrialprocesses.This‘electrification’increasesoverallelectricitydemandbyaround47%abovethebackgroundtrajectoryineachofourscenarios.

Theconsumptionofcoal,gasandoilproductsinfinalenergydeclinesdramaticallyineachofourscenarios.Totalingaround68%offinalenergytoday,fossilfuelsdropto30%inourGrayScenarioby2050,andjust13%inourGreenandRedScenarios,wheretheyareusedonlyaschemicalfeedstock.

InourGrayScenario,coalandgasmaintainashareof10%and9%offinalenergyin2050.Thisisbecausecarboncaptureandstoragetechnologyallowscoalandgastocontinuetobeusedforheatproductioninindustry.Incontrast,oilproductsdropto10%offinalenergyinthisscenariofrom42%today,asoilinroadtransportandshippingbenefitlittlefromCCS.

Hydrogenemergesaspartofthefinalenergymixineachofourscenarios.ItplaysaminorroleinourGrayScenario,withjust190Mtofdemandin2050,andamajorroleinourGreenScenario,wheredemandreaches1,318Mtandaround22%oftotalfinalenergyconsumption,upfromlessthan0.002%today.ThesinglebiggestuseofhydrogeninourGreenScenarioisthepowersector,with553Mt,or42%ofdemand,in2050.Hydrogenconsumptionintheend-use

economyis766MtinboththeGreenScenarioandRedScenario.Oftheend-usesectors,hydrogenisusedmostinindustry,at341Mtin2050,some40%ofwhichgoestosteelproduction.Afurther161Mtisusedinthetransportsector,largelyinaviation,whichaccountsfor95Mt,or59%.Thereisanother30Mtofhydrogenformediumandheavycommercialvehicles.Theuseofhydrogeninbuildingsissmaller,standingat102Mtin2050–two-thirdsofwhichgoestoresidentialbuildings.Aselectrolyzertechnologyimproves,weassumethattheelectricityrequiredtoproduceonetonofhydrogenfallsfrom53MWhtodayto45MWhin2050.ThatmeanshydrogenmanufacturinginourGreenandRedScenariosrequiresbetween34,396TWhand59,264TWhofelectricitygeneration.Toputthesefiguresincontext,makinghydrogeninourGreenScenarioneedsaround1.9timesmoreelectricitythanisproducedworldwidetoday.TomakethehydrogenforourRedScenariorequires1.5timesasmuch.

Overallelectricityuse,includingpowerusedtomakehydrogen,increases3.7timesfrom2019levelsinourRedScenarioto96,417TWhin2050.Thisfigureis

evenhigherinourGreenScenario,whereelectricitydemandincreases4.6timesfrom2019levelsto121,549TWhin2050.Takentogether,about71%oftotalfinalenergyinourGreenScenariocomesdirectlyorindirectlyfromelectricitybymid-century.

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Figure6:Finalenergyconsumption

Source:BloombergNEF

4.2Primaryenergysupply

Eachofournet-zeroscenariosdescribesmajortransformationsintheprimaryenergysupply.InourGreenScenario,wind,PV,hydroandotherrenewablesmakeup28%ofprimaryenergyin2030,some62%in2040and85%in2050.Thisisupfromjust12%today,orjust1.3%ifwecountjustwindandsolar.Atthesametime,fossilfuelsdropataround7%peryearfrom2019tomakeup10%ofsupplyin2050.

IntheRedScenario,nuclearfuelgrowstodominateprimaryenergysupply,makingup66%in2050.Thisoutsizedrolereflectsthelowconversionefficiencyofnuclearfueltonuclearpowerandnuclearpowertohydrogen.IntheGrayScenario,wherewidespreaduseofpost-combustioncarboncaptureandstoragemeanscoalandgasinparticularcancontinuetobeused,fossilfuelsdecline2%ayearbutstillmakeup52%ofprimaryenergyin2050.

Fossilfuelscurrentlyaccountforaround83%oftotalprimaryenergy.Thisfigureincludesalltheenergylossesasfossilfuelsaretransformedintoelectricity,orrefined,andthenusedtosupplytheend-useeconomy.Today,around53%ofprimaryenergyislostintransformationbeforeitcandoanythinguseful.Ineachscenario,peakdemandforfossilfuelsisbroughtforward,withoilandcoalneveragainreachingpre-pandemichighs.

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Thespeedandtimingofdeclineacrossoil,gasandcoaldiffersamongthethreefuels,andbyscenario.Oilisaloneinseeingsignificant,long-termdeclineinallthreescenarios,whereascoalandgashavealifelineinCCSintheGrayScenario.Policymakersmustmanagethesedeclinescarefully,consideringmultiplestrategicgoalsandneeds,forexample,totransitioncapitalflowsawayfromthesesectorsandminimizestrandedassets;toachieveajusttransitionforworkersandcommunities,andtopreserveeconomicsectorsofnationalimportancewherepossible.

Figure7:Primaryenergysupply

Source:BloombergNEF

CoaldeclinesquicklyandearlyinourGreenandRedScenarios,down5%yearonyeartoaslittleas3,807Mtin2030–that’sasmuchas45%below2019levels.Itthencontinuestofallallthewayto110Mtin2050asdecarbonizationrampsupinheavyindustry.TheuseofCCSinourGrayScenariosignificantlyslowscoal’sdeclinefromaround2027,asthetechnologysupportsongoingdemandgrowthinpowergenerationandhigh-temperatureindustrieslikesteelandcement.

Oilishithardinallthreescenarios.Demandrecoverspost-pandemicbutitdoesn’tagainreachpre-crisislevels.By2030,demandisat85-87millionbarrelsperday(mbd),dependingonthescenario,fromaround97mbdin2019.By2050,theswitchtoelectricvehicles,sustainableaviationfuelandhydrogenreducesoildemandinourGreenandRedScenariostojust15mbdoffeedstock.EveninourGrayScenario,oildeclinesasitismostlyusedinthetransportsectorwhere