牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院-從顛覆到重塑：歐洲供應(yīng)鏈的未來（英）-

Fromdisruptionto

reinvention

ThefutureofsupplychainsinEurope

May23,2022

MeettheAuthors

Jean-MarcOllagnier

CEO–Europe

Jean-MarcOllagnieristhechiefexecutiveofficerofAccentureinEurope,withmanagementoversightofallindustriesandservicesinEurope.HeisalsoamemberofAccenture’sGlobalManagementCommittee.

PriortobeingnamedtohiscurrentpositioninMarch2020,Jean-MarcwasgroupchiefexecutiveofAccenture’sResourcesgroupsince2011servingtheenergy,utilities,chemicals,forestryproducts,metalsandminingindustries.

Between2006and2011,Jean-MarcservedasmanagingdirectorforAccenture’sResourcesgroupinEurope,Africa,theMiddleEastandLatinAmerica.PriortothisrolehewascountrymanagingdirectorofAccentureinFranceandtheBeneluxcountries.

KrisTimmermans

SeniorManagingDirector,

Lead–SupplyChain&Operations

KrisTimmermansleadsAccenture'sSupplyChain&Operationsfunctionandisamemberofthecompany'sGlobalManagementCommittee,wherehealsorepresentstheChiefFinancialOfficer/EnterpriseValueandCustomerandChannelsfunctions.

Krishassetaclearmissionforsupplychain:helpclientsreimaginetheirsupplynetworkstobemorerelevant,resilient,andsociallyandenvironmentallyresponsible.Heguidesamultidisciplinaryteamusingthetransformativepowerofdataandtechnologytodrivecustomer-centricbusinessmodels.

With27yearsofexperienceinthesector,Krisisapioneerintheevolutiontowarddigitallypowered“intelligent”supplychains.SincejoiningAccenturein1994,hehasledsupplychainandenterprise-widetransformationsforclientsacrossmultiplesectors,includingconsumergoods,automotive,chemicals,pharmaceuticals,industrialequipmentandlifesciences.

MichaelBrueckner

SeniorManagingDirector–

Growth&StrategyLead,Europe

MichaelleadsGrowth&StrategyforEurope,overseeingallaspectsofAccenture’sstrategyincludingshapingandimplementingstrategyandinvestments,includingseveralsignificantacquisitions.HealsoservesonAccenture’sGlobalLeadershipCommitteeandEurope’sManagementCommittee.

MichaelhasbeenwithAccentureformorethan22yearsandheldmanysignificantrolesincludingHeadofHealth&LifeSciences,Strategy&ManagementConsultinglead,RegionalP&LforProductsIndustries,andGlobalGrowth&StrategyLeadforAccentureDigital.

2

Contents

Disruption:

sourcesof

disruption

Risk:

valueatstakeandprojectedrecovery

Reinvention:

howtoreinventsupplychainsfor

aneweraofperpetualuncertainty

3

Duetothepandemic,companieswere

alreadystrugglingwithsupplychain

disruption

-€112.7billion

-0.9%ofGDP

EconomiclossesduetosupplychaindisruptionsintheEurozonein2021.1

PleaserefertoMethodologysection.

4

ThewarinUkraine

hascompounded

thesechallenges

Severalfactorsareexacerbatingtheshocktosupply:

?energypricesandinflation

?rawmaterialshortagesandlogisticsbreakdowns

?talentshortages

Dependingonthelengthandseverity

ofthewar,thecostofsupplychain

disruptionintheEurozoneacross2022-

2023couldamountto:

€242billion(2%ofGDP)inanongoingwarscenario,or

€920billion(7.7%ofGDP)inaprotractedwarscenario.2

Pleaserefertomethodologysection.

5

Disruption:

supplychainshocksandthe

accumulationofdisruption

6

Supplychainshocks

Logisticsbreakdowns

?Transportationbottlenecksworsenedinputshortagesandsentcostsskyrocketing.

?ContinuedlockdownsinChineseportsandwarinUkrainefurtherstraintheissue.

?90%ofUkraine’swheatexportshavehaltedduetoportclosures.Ukraineaccountsfornearly10%ofglobalwheatexports.Wheatpriceshitrecordhighs,rising30%in2022Q1onthepreviousquarter.3

Lackofmaterialsupplies

?Resurgingdemandandinitialprecautionaryhoardingledtoinflationandoverwhelmedsupplychains.

?Theconcentrationofsuppliersforcriticalmineralsandfoodiscompoundingchallenges.

?Forexample,Russiaisoneofthelargestsuppliersofpalladium,platinumanddiamonds,4whileUkraineisacriticalsupplierforneongas,agriculturalproducts,andmetalores.5

Energysecurity

?Energymarketswerealreadyundersuppliedbeforethewargiventheeconomicrecovery.

?ThewarinUkrainehascausedfurtheroilandgaspricespikes:thepriceofbrentcrudeoilcouldpeakat$115USDperbarrelin2022.6

?Suppliersareshuttingdownsomeoperationsbecauseenergycostsaretoohigh,whichcreatesanotherwaveofinputsupplyshocks.

Atighttalentmarket

?Laborandskillshortagesplaguedmostindustries.

?Thewarhascreatedfurthertensionintargeted

skillsareasliketransportation.

?14.5%oftheglobalseafarerworkforcearefromRussiaandUkraine.7

7

Logistics

breakdowns

Ports,vesselsandcontainersarecriticaltotrade.Around90%oftradedgoodsaretransportedbyoceanshipping.8

Thepandemicdisruptedlogisticsnetworks,andthewariscompoundingeverything.Theresult?

?morepricingandavailabilityissuesinoceanfreight

?greaterportcongestion

?longerairtrafficroutesandtransittimes

?delaysinroadandrailtransportation

Risingratesandsevereportcongestion

WithRussia-boundcontainersstrandedinEuropeandlockdownsintheChineseportofShanghai,globalportcongestionwasstillclosetopeaklevelsinApril2022,causingdelaysandlowarrivalreliability.9

Containershortagesandsevereportcongestionhavedrivenshippingratesrisingtonearly10times

theirlevelcomparedtoJune2020.10

Linershaveorderedover500newcontainervessels,buttheywon’tcomeonlineuntil2023or2024.11

8

Lackofmaterial

supplies

Com.paniesareincreasingly

concernedaboutthelackof

intermediateinputsandcritical

components.

Supplyoftheseis

concentrated:overhalf(52%)oftheshareofEUimportvalueofthemostforeign-dependentproductsoriginatesfromChina.12

?Naturally,supplyshortageshavebillowingeffectsacrossindustrieslikeautomotive.

?InGermany,carproductioninthefirstfourmonthsof2022wasdown32%comparedto2019asaresultofalackofprimaryproductinputs.13

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

Materialshortagesarearisingconcern

Z-scores

2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

IndustryConstruction

Source:OxfordEconomics/HaverAnalytics

Notes:Az-scoreisanumericalmeasurementthatdescribesavalue'srelationshiptothemeanofagroupofvalues.

Wecomputez-scorestoindicatetheextenttowhichreportedshortageshaverisenbyhistoricalstandards.

9

10

-7.2m

workersinGermanyprojectedby2035.14

425,000

heavygoodsvehicledrivershortfallinEurope.16

Atighttalent

Thechangingworldofwork

1in4

UKworkersareplanningajobchange.15

62%

ofsupplychainleaderssaytheiremployeesarenotadvancingenoughinthenewskillstheircompaniesneed.17

market

.

Themostcomplexandenduringsupply

chaindisruptoristhetalentchallenge.

?Theskillstheworldneedsarechanging,alongwithdemographicsandemployeeexpectations.Thecombinedeffectofthesemonumentalshiftsisheretostay.

?Tocontendwithtightlabormarkets,employerswillneedtocontinuetoconsiderraisingwagesandimprovingworkingconditionsastheyattempttoattractandretainworkers.

11

109

60

42

Energysecurity

Potentialactionstoreducedependencyonpetroleum-basedenergy

Oilandgasdemandavoided(Millionbarrelsofoilequivalent(Mmboe)/yr)

20millionpassengerelectricvehicles1

200,000trucksonrenewabledieselorgreenH22

15%ofEuropeanaviationon

SustainableAviationFuels/synfuels3

+5%inindustrialefficiencyinEurope+US

+5%inbuildingefficiencyinEurope+US

5%ofEuropegas-firedpowergentorenewables4

30%ofEuroperefinerydemandfromgreyto

greenhydrogen5

90

64

42

164

Oil

Gas

Notes:

1Assumedacarusing720literofgasolineayearwith6l/100kmand12,000km/yr.

2Assuminga40-tontruckusing33.1L/100kmfor150.000km/year.

3BasedonEuropean2021aviationfueldemand

4Assumedgas-firedbaseloadpowerplantsreplacedbyflexiblewind/solar/batterystoragemixabletoprovidestablesupplysimilartobaseloadpowergeneration.

5Assuming0.03boenaturalgasneededtoproduce1kgSMR-basedH2todaySource:AccentureResearchAnalysisbasedonEurostatandIEA

Energysecurityisdifficulttoprotect,as

bothworldandEuropeaneconomies

are.stillheavilyreliantonoilandgas.

Together,oilandgasmakeupnearly

50%ofthetotalenergysupplyin

2022.18

Howcanwereducedependency?

Increaseindustrialandbuilding

efficiencyandswitchtogreenelectricity

andlow-carbontransportfuels.Afew

comparisons:

?Acombinationof20millionElectricVehicles(EVs)and200,000heavy-dutytrucksusingrenewabledieselcanreplacetheequivalentofmorethan150millionbarrelsofoildemand.19

?Switching15%ofEuropeanaviationtosustainableaviationfuels(SAF)canreduceoildemandsimilartotheimpactofca.10millionEVsinroadtransport.20

Risk:

valueatstakeand

projectedrecovery

12

13

?AwideRussianoilandgasembargo

?eisrsrdssuueoononssinnaifniilnnandrramlbasusuroly

Thewarimpact

Primarymarketforcessuchaseconomicgrowth,inflationandconsumersentiment,alreadyimpactedby

theeffectsofthepandemic,willbefurtherinfluencedbytheevolutionofthewar.Asaresult,wehave

consideredanumberofpossiblescenariosthatmayunfold,withvaryinglevelsofeconomicimpact.

Unfortunately,thecontrolledimpactscenariohaselapsed.Theongoingimpactisthecurrentbaseline.

Threepotentialscenarios

1.Controlledimpact

?Sanctionsdonotescalateandmayevenscalebackaspartofanegotiatedtruce,alleviatingsupplydisruptions.

?Commoditypricesreturntoprewarlevels.

?Consumerandbusinessconfidenceincreases;companiesandpeoplereturntoprewarinvestmentplansandspending.

22O.oigimimpactact

?Supplydisruptionofkey

?Supplydisruptionnofnkeycommodities

contin.uesthrough2022.Someeto

embargoes.

countriescontinuemtobfaceoilandgas

?Commoditysupplyshockscause

?Cohmm-odritysuipplyinshocskssc.ause?short-termrprciceincreaseso.me

?Consumerscutbackonsome

nonessentialsandbusinessesfocus

nonessentialsandbusinessesfocusonimprovingoperatingefficiency.

onimprovingoperatingefficiency.

3.Protractedimpact

3.Protractedimpact

?Commoditypricesremainhighand

?Commoditypricesremainhighand

volatileinto2023.

volatileinto2023.

?Sustainedpriceincreasesreduce

consumerspendingpower,

?Sustainedpriceincreasesreduce

contributingtoanotabledeclinein

consumerspendingpower,

consumerandbusinessconfidence

contributingtoanotabledeclinein

andaslowdowningrowth.

consumerandbusinessconfidence

andaslowdowningrowth.

Marketforce:

economicgrowth

Thecurrentviewamongeconomicforecastersisthatthewarwillleadtoamaterialdecelerationingrowth.21

Underthe‘ongoing’scenario,OxfordEconomicsforecaststhattheEurozonewillavoidrecession,butEurozonegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)willbe1.1percentagepointlowerin2022,relativetoprewarforecastsmadeinJanuaryof3.9%.22

TheEurozone’straderelationshipsmakeitvulnerabletoaslowdown

ForecastedGDPgrowthintheEurozonebyscenario(Percentageyoychange)

%GDPyoyrealgrowth

4

3,5

3

2,5

2

1,5

1

0,5

0

pointchange

2022

2023

Controlled

impactscenario

Ongoing

impactscenario

Protracted

impactscenario

Prewar

forecast

Source:BasedonthemappingofOxfordEconomicsWorldEconomicProspectsestimatestothreescenariosofcontrolledimpact(upsideasofApril25th2022),ongoing(baselinedataasofApril25th2022)andprotracted(downside,April25th2022)

14

Marketforce:

inflation

Inflationarypressuremayleadtopotentialupwardpressureonwageinflationinsomecountriesandindustries.

Undertheongoingscenario,OxfordEconomicsforecaststhatinflationwillriseby5.9percentagepointsin2022andby1.2percentagepointsin

2023.23

InflationisforecastedtoriseintheEurozone

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16

MaterialsInputs

14%IndustryAverage*

Automotive

78%

Aerospace&Defence:

EnergyInputs

8%IndustryAverage*

Utilities**:

51%

Mobility/Freight:

E75%yinputs=percents11%ofenergyinputs(75t%al

iConsumerGoiods&iServices:fortChemicalls:iesindustry.EnSoftware&Platfoirms:lude

72%andlignite,crudepe10%umandnaturalga67%keandrefined

petroleumproductsandelectricity,gas,steamandair

harerdoiaflmitasls=i

intermediateinputs).Theseincludecoalandlignite,crudepetroleumandnaturalgas,cokeandrefinedpetroleumproductsaswellaselectricity,gas,steamandairconditioning.

totalintermediateinputs).Materialsinputsincludeallrawmaterialsandprocessedgoods.

Inflationimpacts

CoststructureofselectedindustriesinEurope(%shareofinputs)

LaborInputs

59%IndustryAverage*

PublicServices:

77%

Health:

*Weightedaverageof19industries(Aerospace&Defense,Automotive/Mobility,Banking,CapitalMarkets,Chemicals,Communications&Media,ConsumerGoods&Services,Energy,Health,HighTech,Industrial,Insurance,LifeSciences,NaturalResources,PublicSector,Retail,Software&Platforms,Travel,Utilities).**Utilitiesincludeelectricity,gasandsteam(andexcludewaterandwastemanagement)

Source:AccentureResearchanalysisofOECDInputOutputtables.

differbyindustry

Industriesbearingthemostexposure

toinflationarethoseinwhichmaterial

inputs,energyandlaborrepresenta

largepartoftheoverallcoststructure.

Takethechemicalsindustry,where

materialcoststiemainlytothecostof

petroleum.Similarly,thehigh-techand

industrialsectors(excluding

logistics/freight)relyonenergy-

intensivematerialinputs.24

Thecriticalquestion:Isitpossibleto

passincreasedcostsontocustomers?

Thesupply

chainisthe

nervecenterof

theEuropean

economy

Upto30%oftotalEuropeanvalueaddedreliesonfunctioningcrossbordersupplychains,eitherasasourceofinputorasadestinationforproduction.25

Weseeparticularexposuretosupplychainshocksinmanufacturingsectors,andevenmoreinindustrieslikehightech(e.g.,80%offinalvalueaddedcomesfrominputssourcedacrossborders,while75%ofdemandforfinalproductscomesfromnon-domesticmarkets),automotiveandaerospace.26

ExportedValue

(shareofnon-domesticdemandforEuropeanproduction)

Otherservices

SoftwareandPlatformsCommunicationsand

Media

0%20%40%60%80%100%

ImportedValue

Industryexposuretosupplychaindisruptionvaries

ValueaddedbyEuropeanindustryrelatedtosupplyanddemandnetworks

(Shareofvalueaddedfinaldemand)

90%

LifeSciences

Chemicals

Automotive/MobilityNaturalResources

70%

HighTech

Aerospace&Defense

Energy

Industrial

Banking

Retail

50%

Travel

OtherManufacturing

Insurance

Capital…

ConsumerGoods

andServices

30%

Utilities

PublicServices

10%

Health

-10%

(shareofvalueaddedofEuropeanfinaldemandthatcomesfrominputsfromtherestoftheworld)

RealGDPgrowth

High–above1,2%**Moderate–between0,6%and1,2%Low–below0,6%

Note:

SizeofthebubbleindicatesweightonGDPin2022,colorindicatesexpectedGDPCAGRforthe‘19-24periodunderOxfordEconomicsbaselinescenario**1,2%isCAGRexpectedfortotaleconomy.Highindicatestheindustryisgrowingfasterthantheoveralleconomy

Source:AccentureResearchAnalysisofOECDTiVAandOxfordEconomicsIndustryDatabank.

17

18

LostGDP

OngoingScenarioProtractedScenario

Thevalueatstake

Aprotractedscenariocouldcostupto€920billioninlost

GDPforEurozoneeconomiesasaresultofsupplyshocks.27

inrealfigures

In2022-2023

LostGDP%

in2023

-€242billion

-€920billion

-2.0%

-7.7%

Source:OxfordEconomicsGlobalEconomicModelresultsforscenariosdesignedbyAccentureResearch

Disruption

Recoverytimebyscenario:

supplychaindisruptionscouldtakeupto24monthstoeaseinaprotractedscenario,versus

approximately12monthsintheongoingimpactscenario.28

Recoverytime

Logisticsdisruption

0-3mm3-6mm6-9mm9-12mm12-15m15-18m18-21m21-24m

Prewarbaseline

“ControlledImpact”

“OngoingImpact”

“ProtractedImpact”

0-3mm3-6mm6-9mm9-12mm12-15m15-18m18-21m21-24m

Materialsshortages

Prewarbaseline

“ControlledImpact”

“OngoingImpact”

“ProtractedImpact”

0-3mm3-6mm6-9mm9-12mm12-15m15-18m18-21m21-24m

Energyprices

Prewarbaseline

“ControlledImpact”

“OngoingImpact”

“ProtractedImpact”

Labourandskillshortages

?Laborandskillsshortageswillremainalong-term,structuralissueforEuropeaneconomiesacrossallscenarios.

?Thatsaid,theselaborshortageswillberatherlessacuteoverthenext18monthsinthe“protractedimpact”scenario,giventheweakeroutlookforeconomicactivity.

Source:OxfordEconomicsGlobalEconomicModelresultsforscenariosdesignedbyAccentureResearch

19

Reinvention:

howtoreinventsupplychainsfora

neweraofperpetualuncertainty

20

21

AParadigmShift

TheReinventionofSupplyChains

Europeisatthedawnofanewera:anewenergysystem,neweconomiccyclesandanewgeopoliticalorder.Thedecadeaheadheraldsafundamentalrethinkingofsupplychainsforcompetitiveness.

From:

OptimizingforCost

?Energy,material,transportationasacommodity–availabilityismoreimportantthansource.

?Globalnetworksthatprioritizeefficiency.

?Sustainabilityisanafterthought.Productsandprocessesdesignedwithalinearmindset-responsibilityendswhentheproductispurchased.

To:

OptimizingforValueandResilience

?Reimaginednetworksthatfocusonsecurityofsupplyandservices,tier-1andbeyond,prioritizingsourcingdiversification.

?Supplychainsprioritizeincreasingrelevancytocustomers,withaholisticdefinitionofvalue,markets/customersproximity.

?Sustainabilityasa’musthave'embeddedbydesign–supplychainsbecomecircular.

PoweredbyDigitalTechnologies

RealTimedata,CloudandIntelligentOperations

Redesigningforthenewera

Tocontendwithanuncertainfutureandbuildlong-termvalue,Europeanbusinessesneedtoredesigntheirsupplychainsaroundthreekeyideas:resilience,relevanceandsustainability.

01

Resilience

02

Relevance

03

Sustainability

22

23

Resilience

ofEuropeanC-levelexecutivesareplanningfundamentalchangestotheiroperationsasaresultofthecrises.29

Modernsupplychainsmustminimize

day-to-dayriskbutalsoabsorb,adapt

to,andrecoverfromcatastrophe

wheneverandwhereveritstrikes.

Organizationscanproactivelymanage

riskandboostresiliencebybuilding

intelligentandresilientsupplychains

thatarerisk-aware,secure,transparent,

adaptive,fast-movingandoptimized.

86%

Resilienceisenhancedbyacombinationofvisibility,agileprocessesandrobustnetworkswhichalsoofferadditionalbenefitsinthemid-andlong-term,suchasachievingsustainabilitygoalsandcomplyingwithsupplychainregulations.

Howtogetthere:

?Addressoperationalrisk

Respondtosuddensupplychainchangeswithimproveddynamicvisibility,riskidentificationandmitigationsolutions.

?Addresstacticalrisk

Adapttoevolvingsupplyanddemandwithscenarioplanningandrisk/opportunityanalysisaspartofsalesandoperationsplanning.

?Addressstrategicrisk

Manageuncertaintybyboostingflexibilityandcapacitythroughnetworkmodelingandsimulation,stresstests,strategicbuffersizingandmulti-sourcingoptions.

Benefits

?Earlydetectionoflogisticschallenges,demandspikesandmaterialshortages.

?Dynamicvisibilityofthesupplychaintorespondtodisruptionsastheyhappenaswellashelpachievesustainabilitytargetsandregulatorycompliance.

?Potentialtooffsetinvestmentcosts,asthesametechnologiesyouusetobuildyourintelligentsupplychaincanprovidemid-andlong-termbenefitstosustainabilityandcompliance.

26

Relevance

ofexecutivessaythattechnologyisgivingthemtheopportunitytoreimaginethefundamentalsoftheirbusiness.30

Customerneedsareacceleratingand

changing–especiallyintermsofvalue,

choice,andconvenience.

Relevancerequiresthatcompaniesare

therefortheircustomers’“momentsthat

matter”byprioritizingthecustomer

experience.

71%

Therelevantsupplychainisintelligentandagile,abletoanticipateandadapttoshiftingbusinessconditionsandremainapplicabletocustomerexpectations,stakeholderdemandsandecosystempotentialwithdata,analyticsandautomationatitscore.

Howtogetthere:

Learnfromthefuture

?Capturenewdatasetsthatcomedirectlyfromcustomerinteraction,includingreal-timedata,frominsideandoutsideyourorganizationandacrossthevaluechain.

?Processdatausingautomationandartificialintelligence(AI)toidentifynewdatapatternsrapidlyandinformdecisionmaking.

Reinventtheorganization

?Movetoaflatter,fasterorganizationalstructurewherethecorporatecenterandC-suitefocusonmakingcross-cuttingdecisionstogether.

?Jointlydefineorganizationalpurpose,setstrategyandallocatecapitalforkeyinitiatives.

?Workbackwardsfromthecustomer–embedcapabilitiesintobusinessprocessesthatdirectlybenefitthecustomerexperience.

Embedintelligenceintheenterprise

?Transitiontointelligentprocesses,productsandplatforms.

?Applyacloud-firstapproachasthekeytenetofyoursupplychaintransformation.

?Usetoolslikezero-basedcostmanagementtoovercometheongoingeffectsofinflation.

Benefits

?Mitigatessupplychainchallengesformaterials,logisticsandlabor.

?Allowsyoutomanageservicelevelsandcostswhileprovidinganinfrastructureandgovernancemodeltounleashinnovationandgrowth.

25

Sustainability

ofEuropeanexecutivesstatethatbecomingatrulyresponsible/sustainablebusinessisatoppriorityoverthenextthreeyears.31

Everybusinessmustnowbea

sustainablebusiness.Companiesmust

pursueimprovedenvironmental,social,

andgovernanceperformanceby

transformingtheiroperationstobe

circular,netzeroandtrusted.

63%

Thesustainablesupplychainfactorsincurrentandfutureneedsofallstakeholdergroupsincludingbusinessleaders,employees,customers,investors,ecosystempartnersandsocietyatlarge.

Howtogetthere:

Reachnetzeroandbeyond

?Findwaystogetyourvaluechaintozeroenvironmentalandsocialimpact.Fromthere,lookforwaystobecomenetpositive.Adeepunderstandingoftheimpactofyourinternaloperationsandthoseofpartnersandsuppliersisvital.

Engageincircularbusinessmodels

?Shiftfromlinearprocessestoclosed-loop,circularprocessesthatminimizewaste.Recycling,reuse,andrepurposingmustreplacea“useonce”mindset.

Findcreativewaystonurturetalent

?Redesigningforsustainabilitycallsforarethinkofworkforceskills.Movingtowardmoreempowered,multidisciplinaryteamsmeanspeoplemayneedtotakeonmorecomplexroles.

Buildtrustthroughtransparency

?Usemultipartysystemslikeblockchaintoaddtransparencytoyour

valuechainandimprovetrustamongstakeholders.

Benefits

?Helpsensureahabitableworldandtheavailabilityofresourcesforfuturegenerations.

?Reducesglobalsocioeconomicinequitiesandunlocksthepowerofallemployees.

Thedecadetodeliver:

Findingwaystogrowamiduncertainty

isthenewperennialleadershipchallenge

Successmayultimatelydependonhowwellleadersadapttothedemandsofthisnew,testingenvironment.Morethanever,theirresolvewillbecritical.

Forleadersandtheirorganizations,thereisno

returntotherelativecomfortandsafetyofthe

not-so-distantpast.ThewarinUkraine,ontopofthe

effectsofthepandemic,hasmadeclearthatmany

ofthecomfortablecertaintiesonwhichbusiness

leadershavelongreliedarenolongerthere.

26

Methodology

Costofsupplychaindisruptions:

Weestimatedtheimpactofsupplydisruptionsfor2021intwostages,focusingonenergyandnon-energybottlenecksseparately:

Step1:

theimpactofnon-energybottlenecks(logisticaldisruptions,andshortagesoflaborandmaterials)wasestimated:

?Weranacounterfactualsc