CBRE+2023美國生命科學行業(yè)展望

AdaptiveSpaces

2023U.S.LifeSciencesOutlook

REPORT

RisingUncertainty

AmidBurgeoning

ScientificDiscovery

CBRERESEARCH

APRIL2023

AdaptiveSpaces

2023U.S.LifeSciencesOutlook|RisingUncertaintyAmidBurgeoningScientificDiscovery

2CBRERESEARCH?2023CBRE,INC.

ExecutiveSummary

Afterrecordyearsin2020and2021,growthoftheU.S.lifesciencesindustryhasreturnedtoamorenormalpaceinacautiouslyoptimistic2023.

Afterrecordyears

in2020and2021,

growthoftheU.S.

lifesciencesindustry

hasreturnedtoa

morenormalpace

in2023,although

demandforlab/R&D

spaceremainswell

abovepre-pandemic

levels.

Lifesciences

employmentreacheda

recordhighatthestart

of2023,althoughthe

rateofgrowthslowed.

TheSanFranciscoBay

Area,Boston/CambridgeandSeattlewerethefastest-growingmarketslastyear.

Recentturmoilinthebankingsystemmaycausefurtherreductionsinventurecapitalfundingtotheindustrythisyear.Nevertheless,Q12023VCfundingisonpacetoexceedpre-pandemiclevelsbyroughly20%.RobustindustryR&DexpendituresandpublicfundingfromtheNationalInstitutesofHealtharestillsupportinggrowth.

CBREforecaststhat

totallifesciences

lab/R&Dspacemay

increasebymorethan

20%overthenext

twoyears,asa

record-highamount

ofnewconstructionis

currentlyunderway.

Thislikelywillpush

thevacancyrateup

moderately.

Lab/R&Dvacancies

arerisingbutremain

wellbelowtheirlong-

termaverage.Rents

arestillrisinginmost

ofthenation’s

markets,albeitat

aslowerpacethan

inthepastseveral

years.

Lifesciences

investmentsales

volumeisdown

topre-pandemic

levels,butpricing

remainshighwith

capratesatrecord

lowsamidrobust

investorsentiment.

Industrygrowththisyeardependsonwhetheraneconomicrecessionoccurs,aswellasthestabilityoffinancialmarkets,buthistoryshowsthelifesciencesindustryismoreimmunetothesechallengesthanothersectors.

AdaptiveSpaces

2023U.S.LifeSciencesOutlook|RisingUncertaintyAmidBurgeoningScientificDiscovery

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Contents

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

Employment

Funding

IndustryInnovation

Laboratory/R&DTrends

Biomanufacturing/GMPTrends

InvestmentTrends

EmergingMarkets

GovernmentIncentives

Outlook

MarketProfiles

04

11

18

21

28

31

34

40

42

45

01

Employment

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Lifesciencesemploymentisatarecordhigh,butitsgrowthis slowing.Previouscyclessuggestanyfurtherslowdowninemploymentwon’tbeassevereasthatofthebroadereconomy.

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Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

LifeSciences

EmploymentReaches

RecordLevelsbut

GrowthSlows

U.S.lifesciencesemploymenthitarecord2.1millionjobsatthestartof2023.Althoughthepaceofjobgrowthslowedto4.1%inJanuary2023from6.3%inJanuary2022,itwasstillhigherthananyannualgrowthratebefore2019.Shouldarecessiontakehold,weexpectevenslowerjobgrowthin2023.

Lifesciences’shareofthetotalU.S.laborforcereachedanear-record1.4%lastyear.Research&developmentemployment—mostnotablyinthebiotechnologysector—grewby8.7%andledtheoverallindustry’sannualjobgrowth.

SinceJune2022,industryemploymentgrowthhasdeceleratedduetohigherinterestratesandapullbackinpublicandprivatefundingfortheindustry.Thelifesciencesindustryaddedanaverageof11,144jobspermonthbetweenJune2020andJune2022,upfrom6,259inthecomparabletwo-yearperiodpriortotheCOVIDpandemic(2018-2019).InthepastsixmonthsendingJanuary2023,however,themonthlyaveragefellto3,378.

FIGURE1:U.S.LifeSciencesEmploymentTrends

Thousands

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

LifeSciencesEmployment(RScale)MonthlyChangeinEmployment(LScale)

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,CBREResearch,February2023.

June2020-June2022:Average+11,144jobspermonth

1.3

LastSixMonths:

Average+3,378jobspermonth

Millions

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Lifesciencescompanieshaveannouncedmanymorelayoffsinthefirsttwomonthsof2023thanin2022(Figure2).Nevertheless,theunemploymentrateforessentialscientificoccupationsinlifesciencesresearch&developmentremainwellbelowthetotalU.S.unemploymentrate(Figure3),suggestingunderlyingstrengthinhiringdespitethelayoffannouncements.

FIGURE2:NumberofU.S.LifeSciencesCompaniesAnnouncingLayoffs

40

35

0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

20222023

Source:CBREResearch,February2023.

30

25

20

15

10

5

FIGURE3:2022U.S.UnemploymentRatesbyOccupation

TotalU.S.

Biologicalscientists

Biomedicalengineers

Medicalscientists

%0123

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,CBREResearch,February2023.

4

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Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Feb-21

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-11

Mar-01

Jun-01

Sep-01

Dec-01

Mar-02

Jun-02

DespitethepossibilityofamoderateU.S.recessionthisyear,thelifesciencesindustryhashistoricallybeen

resilienttoeconomicdownturns.Ineachofthepastthreerecessions,joblossesinthelifesciencesindustry

weremuchmorelimitedandofashorterdurationthanoverallU.S.joblosses.Weexpectthissametrendifa

recessiontakesholdthisyear.

FIGURE4:LifeSciencesEmploymentLevelsinPastThreeRecessions

(1.00=employmentlevelinfirstmonthofrecession)

2007-2009

1.04

1.02

1.00

0.98

0.96

0.94

0.92

BiotechnologyR&DTotalLifeSciencesTotalNonfarm

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,CBREResearch,February2023.

1.03

1.02

1.01

1.00

0.99

0.98

0.97

1.10

1.05

1.00

0.95

0.90

0.85

2020

2001

0.80

PreviouslifesciencesjoblossesweremuchmorelimitedandofashorterdurationthanoverallU.S.joblosses.

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FIGURE5:Top25LargestLifeSciencesEmploymentClusters

SanFranciscoBayAreaBoston/CambridgeNewJersey

SanDiegoWashington,D.C./Baltimore

NewYorkCity Chicago Philadelphia LosAngelesMinneapolis-St.Paul OrangeCounty Raleigh-DurhamDetroit

HoustonSeattle

Denver-BoulderDallas-Ft.WorthPhoenix

SaltLakeCity,UTMSASanJuan-Carolina-Caguas,PRMSAIndianapolis

Miami-Ft.Lauderdale

PittsburghAtlantaTampa

2019

Q22022

040,00080,000120,000160,000

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,CBREResearch,February2023.

ThelatestlifescienceslocalemploymentdatathroughJune2022showswhichU.S.marketshadthemoststrengthandmomentumenteringaslowergrowthphasesincethen.Intermsoftotalnumberofpersonsemployedinthelifesciencesindustry,theSanFranciscoBayAreawastheleadingmetroforlifesciencesemployment,followedbyBoston/Cambridge,NewJersey,SanDiego,Washington,

D.C./BaltimoreandNewYorkCity.

TheSanFrancisco

BayAreawastheleadingmetroforlifesciencesemployment.

OrangeCounty

48%

Cleveland

48%

AdaptiveSpaces

2023U.S.LifeSciencesOutlook|RisingUncertaintyAmidBurgeoningScientificDiscovery

LifeSciencesEmploymentGrowth

Pharmaceutical/MedicineManufacturing

FIGURE6:TopU.S.MarketsforLifeSciencesEmploymentGrowth,2019toQ22022

Top3MajorMarketswithinLeadingLifeSciencesSpecialties(%oftotallifesciencesemployment)

Indianapolis

65%

MajorMarketswithAboveAverageGrowth(TotalLSciandR&D)

EmergingMarkets(Top5withAboveAverageGrowth,(TotalLSciandR&D)

Chicago

35%

NewJersey

30%

Seattle

Research&Development

Total:25.2%|R&D:39.3%

MedicalDevices

Portland

Boston/Cambridge43%

Minneapolis-St.Paul68%

R&D:39.9%

Washington,D.C./Baltimore

49%

SanFranciscoBayArea

40%

Boston/Cambridge

Total:25.9%|R&D:28.6%

Sacramento

Total:27.3%

NewHaven

Washington,D.C./Baltimore

Total:16.2%

Total:21.4%|R&D:94.2%

SanFranciscoBayArea

Total:27.0%|R&D:30.9%

Raleigh-Durham

Total:23.2%|R&D:29.7%

Phoenix

Total:23.6%

Atlanta

R&D:44.1%

SanDiego

Total:17.0%|R&D:23.5%

Nashville

R&D:81.0%

Tampa

Total:23.9%

Houston

R&D:29.2%

Austin

Total:30.0%

Dallas-Ft.Worth

R&D:44.5%

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,CBREResearch,February2023.

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02

Funding

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IndustryFunding

TrendsareMixed

Althoughtherehasbeenanotablepullbackinlifesciencesventurecapitalinvestmentandinitialpublicstockofferingssofarin2023,highlevelsofcompanyR&DexpendituresandpublicfundingfromtheNationalInstitutesofHealthwillpersist.Lifesciencescompaniesalsohaveroughly$200billionincashandequivalentsontheircombinedbalancesheetsallocatedforbusinessdevelopmentandmergers&acquisitions.

LifesciencescompanyR&Dexpenditureshavegrownbyanestimated40%overthepastfiveyears.Thenearly$154billionincompanyR&Dexpenditureslastyearfarexceededthe$21.7billioninlifesciencesventurecapitalinvestment.

Figure7:LifeSciencesResearch&DevelopmentExpenditures

Billions

$180$160

$140

$120

$100

$80

$60

$40

$20

201420152016201720182019202020212022

Source:S&PCapitalIQ,CBREResearch,February2023.

$0

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Q42018

Q12019

Q22019

Q32019

Q42019

Q12020

Q22020

Q32020

Q42020

Q12021

Q22021

Q32021

Q42021

Q12022

Q22022

Q32022

Q42022

FIGURE8:U.S.LifeSciencesVentureCapitalFunding

$Billions

12Q42022funding20%higherthanQ32022

and43%higherthan2019average

10

8

6

4

2

0

RestofU.S.

Source:CBInsights,CBREResearch,2022.

Boston/Cambridge

SanFranciscoBayArea

SanDiego

Venturecapitalplaysapivotalroleinthecreationandexpansionoflifesciencescompanies.Despitea34%year-over-yeardeclineinannualVCfundinglastyearto$21.7billion,Q42022recordedthefirstmaterialquarterlyincreaseinventurecapitalfundingsinceearly2021at20%.

Whileevidenceofabundantavailablecapitalamonginvestorsprovidesanelementofoptimismformorefavorablefundingin2023,recentturmoilinthebankingsystemmayrestrictgreateramountsoffundingforemerginglifesciencescompanyexpansions.

ThebulkoflifesciencesventurecapitalisallocatedtocompaniesinthetopthreepremierlifesciencesmarketsofBoston/Cambridge,theSanFranciscoBayAreaandSanDiego.Somecommercialrealestateinvestorshaveindicatedthattheywilllimittheirfocustothesethreemarketsinthenear-termduetocurrenteconomicvolatility.Nevertheless,fundingforthesethreemarketsfellby33.5%year-over-yearin2022,comparedwitha31%declinefortherestofthetop10marketstrackedbyCBRE

Research.

14CBRERESEARCH?2023CBRE,INC.

FIGURE9:Year-over-YearChangesinLifeSciencesVentureCapitalInvestment&EmploymentGrowth

%

160

120

80

40

0

-40

Q4Venturecapitalflowssuggestweaker

employmentgrowth

%

8

6

4

2

0

-2

Q41996

Q41998

Q42000

Q42002

Q42004

Q42006

Q42008

Q42010

Q42012

Q42014

Q42016

Q42018

Q42020

Q42022

LifeSciencesEmpGrowth(laggedtwoquarters)(RScale)

Note:Changesinannualventurecapitalfundingshown.

Source:CBInsights,U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,CBREResearch,January2023.

LifeSciencesVCFundingGrowth(LScale)

Figure9showshowthegrowthordeclineoflifesciencesventurecapitalinvestmentscloselymirrorstheriseorfallofindustryemployment.Basedontheyear-over-yearchangeinannualventurecapitalinvestment,aslowdowninlifescienceshiringshouldoccurthisyear.However,Q42022sawthefirstmaterialquarter-over-quarterincreaseinventurecapitalfundingsinceearly2021,suggestingastabilizationinhiringtrendsratherthanadecline.

Thegrowthordeclineoflifesciencesventurecapitalinvestmentscloselymirrorstheriseorfallofindustryemployment.

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FIGURE10:InitialPublicOfferingsofLifeSciencesCompaniesbyYear

$Billions

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2013201420152016201720182019202020212022

BiotechnologyDrugDevelopmentDrugDiscoveryPharmaceuticals/DrugsDiseaseDiagnosis

Source:CBInsights,CBREResearch,February2023.

Therealsohasbeenadropininitialpublicofferings(IPOs)ofemergingcompanies.ThecombinedvalueoflifesciencescompanyIPOslastyearfellby79%from2021butwasonly27%belowthepre-pandemicannualaveragebetween2015and2019,suggestingthat2020-2021wasanaberration.

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2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

TheNationalInstitutesofHealth(NIH)ispartlyoffsettingtherecentdropinprivatefundingwithabudgetof$47.5billionforfiscalyear2023,upfrom$45.2

billionin2022.AnnualNIHfundinghasincreasedby62%overthepast10years.Thetoplifescienceslab/R&DmarketsintheU.S.continuetoreceivethemost

NIHfunding,ledbytheGreaterNewYorkmetropolitanarea.SeattleandRaleigh-Durhamhavebeenthefastest-growingmarketsforNIHfundingsince2019.

JohnsHopkinsUniversityintheWashington,D.C./BaltimoremarketremainedthelargestsinglerecipientofNIHfundingin2022with$839.9million.

FIGURE11:NationalInstitutesofHealthFunding

$Billions

0

Source:NationalInstitutesofHealth,CBREResearch,February2023.

30

25

20

15

10

5

62.0%increase2013-2023

7.9%increase2003-2013

45

40

35

50

FIGURE12:Top10U.S.MetrosforNationalInstitutesofHealthFunding(FiscalYear2022)

Source:NationalInstitutesofHealth,CBREResearch,February2023.

FY2022Funding$

2019-2022Change%

NewYork/NewJersey

3,257,868,219

23.3

Boston/Cambridge

3,036,176,516

8.2

Washington,D.C./Baltimore

2,901,105,616

23.8

SanFranciscoBayArea

2,208,791,251

17.6

Raleigh-Durham

1,791,303,837

28.7

GreaterLosAngeles

1,612,693,874

21.3

Seattle

1,392,535,242

29.6

Philadelphia

1,340,374,498

11.0

SanDiego

1,224,153,082

21.0

Chicago

1,084,371,746

19.7

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Aflurryofmergers&acquisitions,aswellasotherbusinessdevelopmentdeals,isexpectedthisyearasvaluationsforsmallercompaniesfallandapatentcliff

loomsoverthenextseveralyears.Theamountofcashandequivalentsonlife-sciencescompanybalancesheetshasswelledsince2017(Figure13),providing

thefundsformoretransactionactivityin2023.

FIGURE13:CashReserves&EquivalentsHeldbyU.S.LifeSciencesCompanies

20142015201620172018201920202021H12022

Source:S&PCapitalIQ,CBREResearch,February2023.

$Billions

300

200

250

150

100

50

0

FIGURE14:LifeSciencesMergers&AcquisitionDealsbySubsector

NumberofDeals

Pharmaceuticals/DrugsDrugDevelopment

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Source:CBInsights,CBREResearch,February2023.

DiseaseDiagnosis

DrugDiscovery

Biotechnology

200

250

150

100

50

0

03

IndustryInnovation

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Figure15:NumberofNewPhase2&Phase3U.S.ClinicalTrials

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Phase2Phase3

Note:Includesallinterventionalstudies(clinicaltrials)exceptthosethatarewithdrawn,suspendedorterminated.Includestrialsbydatefirstpostedtodatabasewithastartdateonorafter1/1/2012.

Source:ClinicalT,CBREResearch.

Innovation&New

ProductsDriving

IndustryExpansion

Clinicalstudiesareavitalpartofthelifesciencescompanylifecycle.Phase2and3trialsinparticularareatippingpointforcompaniesastheydeterminetheeffectivenessofthedrug/productbeingdeveloped.Resultsfromthesestudieshelpdetermineifacompanywillexpandorcontract,especiallywithstartups.

AsseeninFigure15,newPhase2and3clinicaltrialsincreasedby618%from2012to2021.Whiletheadditionofnewtrialsslowedin2022,theindustryiscurrentlyundertakinganall-timehighnumberofclinicaltrialswithover31,000activestudiesintheU.S.andnearly11,500inPhases2and3asoftheendofFebruary2023.

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TheFood&DrugAdministration(FDA)approved37noveldrugsin2022,downfrom50in2021andtheprevious10-yearaverageof43.AsoftheendofFebruary2023,sevennewdrugshavebeenapproved,onparwithlastyear’sapprovalrateatthistime.Despiteincreasinglyonerousregulationsfordrugapprovals,themajorityofthenewdrugsapprovedlastyearusedoneofthefourexpeditedprocessesforFDAapproval.Whileapprovalsaredown,ne