第五章國際收支與國際聯(lián)系國際財務管理,JosephFGre

MultinationalFinancialManagement

AlanShapiro

7thEdition

J.Wiley&Sons

PowerPointsbyJosephF.Greco,Ph.D.CaliforniaStateUniversity,Fullerton1第一頁，共三十八頁。CHAPTER5

THEBALANCEOFPAYMENTSANDINTERNATIONALLINKAGES2第二頁，共三十八頁。CHAPTEROVERVIEWI. BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT CATEGORIESII. THEINTERNATIONAL FLOWOFGOODS, SERVICES,ANDCAPITALIII. COPINGWITHCURRENT ACCOUNTDEFICITS3第三頁，共三十八頁。

PARTI.

BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT

CATEGORIESA. THEBALANCEOFPAYMENTS (B-O-P) 1. PURPOSE: Measuresallfinancialand economictransactionsover aspecifiedperiodoftime.4第四頁，共三十八頁。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT

CATEGORIES 2. Double-entrybookkeeping a. Currencyinflows=credits earnforeignexchange b. Currencyoutflows=debits expendforeignexchange5第五頁，共三十八頁。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT

CATEGORIES 3. ThreeMajorAccounts: a. Current b. Capital c. OfficialReserves 4. CurrentAccount recordsnetflowofgoods, services,andunilateral transfers.6第六頁，共三十八頁。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT

CATEGORIES 5. CapitalAccount a. Function:recordspublic andprivateinvestmentand lending. b.Inflows=credits c.Outflows=debits

7第七頁，共三十八頁。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT

CATEGORIES 5. CapitalAccount(con’t) d.Transactionsclassifiedas 1.)portfolio 2.)direct 3.)shortterm8第八頁，共三十八頁。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT

CATEGORIES 6. OfficialReservesAccount a.Function: 1.)measureschangesin internationalreserves ownedbycentralbanks. 2.)reflectssurplus/deficitof a.)currentaccount b.)capitalaccount9第九頁，共三十八頁。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT

CATEGORIES 6. OfficialReservesAccount(con’t) b.Reservesconsistof 1.)gold 2.)convertiblesecurities

10第十頁，共三十八頁。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT

CATEGORIES 7.NetEffects: a. Sumofalltransactions mustbezero:

1.)currentaccount 2.)capitalaccount 3.)officialreserves

11第十一頁，共三十八頁。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT

CATEGORIES 8. TheBalance-of-payment measures a.SomeDefinitions: 1.)BasicBalance

a.) consistsofcurrent accountandlong- termcapitalflows.

12第十二頁，共三十八頁。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT

CATEGORIES 1.)BasicBalance(con’t)

b.)emphasizeslong- termtrends.

13第十三頁，共三十八頁。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT

CATEGORIES1.)BasicBalance(con’t)

c.)excludesshort-termcapital flowsthatheavilydependon temporaryfactors.14第十四頁，共三十八頁。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT

CATEGORIES 2.)NetLiquidityBalance: measuresthechangein privatedomesticborrowing orlendingrequiretokeep paymentsequalwithout adjustingofficialreserves.15第十五頁，共三十八頁。BALANCE-OF-PAYMENT

CATEGORIES3.) OfficialReserveTransactions Balance - measuresadjustments neededbyofficial reserves.16第十六頁，共三十八頁。

PARTII.THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITALII. LINKSFROMINTERNATIONAL TODOMESTICFLOWS A. GlobalLinkages setofbasicmacroeconomic identitieswhichlink: domesticspendingand productiontocurrentand capitalaccounts17第十七頁，共三十八頁。THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITALB. DomesticSavingsandInvestment andtheCapitalAccount 1. NationalIncomeAccounting a. NationalIncome(NI)is eitherspent(C)or saved(S)

NI=C+S (5.1)

18第十八頁，共三十八頁。THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL b. Nationalspending(NS)is dividedintopersonal spending(C) and investment(I)

NS=C+I (5.2)

19第十九頁，共三十八頁。THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITALc. Subtracting(4.2)-(4.1) NI-NS=S-I (5.3)

IfNI>NS,S>Iwhichimplies thatsurpluscapitalspent overseas.20第二十頁，共三十八頁。THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL d. Inafreely-floatingsystem, excesssaving=thecapital accountbalance e. Implications:

1. Anationwhichproduces morethanitspendswill savemorethanitinvests domesticallywithanet capitaloutflowproducinga capitalaccountdeficit.21第二十一頁，共三十八頁。THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL2. Anationwhichspendsmore thanitproduceshasanet capitalinflowproducinga capitalaccountsurplus.3. Ahealthyeconomywilltendto

runacurrentaccountdeficit.22第二十二頁，共三十八頁。THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITALC. THELINKBETWEENTHE CURRENTANDCAPITAL ACCOUNTS 1. Beginningidentity NI-NS=X-M (5.4) whereX=exports M=imports X-M=currentaccount balance(CA)23第二十三頁，共三十八頁。THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL 2. Combining(5.3)+(5.4) S-I=X-M (5.5) 3. IfS-I=NetForeign Investment(NFI) NFI=X-M (5.6)24第二十四頁，共三十八頁。THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL 4. Implications: a. IfCAisinsurplus,the nationmustbeanet exporterofcapital. b. IfCAisadeficit,thenation isamajorcapitalimporter. c. WhenNS>NI,theexcess mustbeacquiredthrough foreigntrade.25第二十五頁，共三十八頁。THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL d. SolutionsforImprovingCA deficits: 1.) Raisenationalincome (output) relativetodomestic investment(I). 2.) Increase(S)relativeto domesticinvestment(I).

26第二十六頁，共三十八頁。THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL D. GOVERNMENTBUDGETSAND CURRENTACCOUNTDEFICITS 1.CURRENTACCOUNTBALANCE CA=SavingSurplus-Gov’t budgetdeficit

27第二十七頁，共三十八頁。THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL

2.CADeficitmeans thenationisnotsaving enoughtofinance(I)andthe deficit. 3.CASurplusmeans thenationissavingmore thanneededtofinanceits(I) anddeficit.28第二十八頁，共三十八頁。

PARTIII.COPINGWITHTHECURRENTACCOUNTDEFICIT

I. POSSIBLESOLUTIONS UNLIKELYTO WORK:

A. CurrencyDepreciation

B. Protectionism29第二十九頁，共三十八頁。COPINGWITHTHE CURRENTACCOUNTDEFICITII.CURRENCYDEPRECIATION A. U.S.Experience: Doesnotimprovethetrade deficit. 30第三十頁，共三十八頁。COPINGWITHTHECURRENTACCOUNTDEFICIT B. Depreciationsareineffective because 1. Ittakestimetoaffecttrade.

2. J-CurveEffect statesthatadeclinein currencyvaluewillinitially worsenthedeficitbefore improvement.31第三十一頁，共三十八頁。THEJ-CURVETIMENetchangeintradebalance0CurrencydepreciationTradebalanceinitiallydeterioratesTrade

balanceimproves32第三十二頁，共三十八頁。COPINGWITHTHECURRENTACCOUNTDEFICITIII. PROTECTIONISM A. TradeBarriersused: 1. Tariffs 2. Quotas B. Results: Mostlikelywillreduceboth XandM.33第三十三頁，共三十八頁。COPINGWITHTHECURRENTACCOUNTDEFICIT C. FOREIGNOWNERSHIP oneprotectionistsolutionwould placelimitsonoreliminate foreignownershipleadingto capitalinflows.

34第三十四頁，共三十八頁。COPINGWITHTHECURRENTACCOUNTDEFICITD. STIMULATENATION