北大光華組織與管理課程和關(guān)于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概念的進(jìn)一步討論

Chapter6DECISIONMAKING:THEESSENCEOFTHEMANAGER’SJOB?JianjunZhang6-1LearningObjectivesYoushouldlearnto:Outlinethestepsinthedecision-makingprocessExplainwhydecisionmakingissopervasiveinorganizationsDescribetherationaldecisionmakerContrasttheperfectlyrationalandboundedlyrationalapproachestodecisionmakingExplaintherolethatintuitionplaysinthedecision-makingprocess?JianjunZhang6-2LearningObjectives(cont.)Youshouldlearnto:IdentifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethemDifferentiatethedecisionconditionsofcertainty,risk,anduncertaintyDescribethedifferentdecision-makingstyles?JianjunZhang6-3Importanceofdecision-makingDecisionschoicesfromtwoormorealternativesallorganizationalmembersmakedecisionsEverybodyhastomakelotofdecisionsinhis/herlifetimeDecisionsintheManagementFunctions?JianjunZhangTheDecision-MakingProcessProblemIdentificationIdentificationofDecisionCriteriaAllocationofWeightstoCriteriaDevelopmentofAlternativesImplementationofanAlternativeEvaluationofDecisionEffectivenessAnalysisofAlternativesSelectionofanAlternative?JianjunZhangDecision-MakingProcessacomprehensive,8-stepprocessStep1-IdentifyingaProblemproblem-discrepancybetweenanexistingandadesiredstateofaffairsmustbesuchthatitexertspressuretoactmanagerisunlikelytocharacterizeasituationasaproblemunlesss/hehasresourcesnecessarytoactDecisionMaking?Jianjun

ZhangDecision-MakingProcess(cont.)Step2-IdentifyingDecisionCriteriadecisioncriteria-what’srelevantinmakingadecisionStep3-AllocatingWeightstotheCriteriamustweightthecriteriatogivethemappropriatepriorityinthedecisionStep4-DevelopingAlternativeslisttheviablealternativesthatcouldresolvetheproblemwithoutevaluatingthemStep5-AnalyzingAlternativeseachalternativeisevaluatedagainstthecriteriaDecisionMaking(cont.)?JianjunZhang

AssessedValuesofNotebookComputerAlternativesAgainstDecisionCriteria

?JianjunZhangEvaluationofLaptopComputerAlternativesAgainstCriteriaandWeights?JianjunZhangDecisionMaking(cont.)Decision-MakingProcess(cont.)Step6-SelectinganAlternativechoosingthebestalternativefromamongthoseconsideredStep7-ImplementingtheAlternativeimplementation-conveyingthedecisiontothoseaffectedbyitandgettingtheircommitmenttoitparticipationindecision-makingprocessinclinespeopletosupportthedecisiondecisionmayfailifitisnotimplementedproperlyStep8-EvaluatingDecisionEffectivenessdeterminewhethertheproblemisresolved?JianjunZhangDecisionasaProcess:IncrementalDecisionProcessModelEmpiricalresearch:25decisionprocessesDecisionsequenceStimulus:opportunity,problem,crisisSolutions:given(ready-made),customizedIdentification:recognition,diagnosisDevelopment:search,screen,designSelection:judgmentevaluation-choice,analysisevaluation,bargainingevaluation-choiceAuthorization

ContinuedDynamicfactors:--interrupts:suddeneventscausechangeinpaceordirection--schedulingdelays--feedbackdelays--timingdelaysandspeedups--comprehensivecycles--failurerecyclescontinuedModelsofstrategicdecisionprocess--simpleimpassedecisionprocesses--politicaldesigndecisionprocess--basicsearchdecisionprocesses--modifiedsearchdecisionprocesses--basicdesigndecisionprocesses--blockeddesigndecisionprocesses--dynamicdesigndecisionprocessesTheManagerAsDecisionMakerRationalDecisionMakingdecisionsareconsistent,value-maximizingchoiceswithinspecifiedconstraintsmanagersassumedtomakerationaldecisionsAssumptionsofRationality-decisionmakerwould:beobjectiveandlogicalcarefullydefineaproblemhaveaclearandspecificgoalselectthealternativethatmaximizesthelikelihoodofachievingthegoalmakedecisioninthefirm’sbesteconomicinterestsmanagerialdecisionmakingseldommeetsallthetests?JianjunZhangAssumptionsOfRationalityRationalDecisionMakingProblemisclearandunambiguousSingle,well-definedgoalistobeachievedAllalternativesandconsequencesareknownPreferencesareclearPreferencesareconstantandstableNotimeorcostconstraintsexistFinalchoicewillmaximizepayoff?JianjunZhang有限理性環(huán)境復(fù)雜，模糊、不一致信息；不完備、不對稱信息人們解釋不同(經(jīng)歷經(jīng)驗(yàn)、身份角色、利益，等）私有利益（組織作為政治聯(lián)合體）時(shí)間壓力注意力分配TheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)TypesofProblemsandDecisionsWell-StructuredProblems-straightforward,familiar,andeasilydefinedProgrammedDecisions-usedtoaddressstructuredproblemsminimizetheneedformanagerstousediscretionfacilitateorganizationalefficiencyprocedure-seriesofinterrelatedsequentialstepsusedtorespondtoastructuredproblemrule-explicitstatementofwhattodoornottodopolicy-guidelinesorparametersfordecisionmaking?JianjunZhangTheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)TypesofProblemsandDecisions(cont.)Poorly-StructuredProblems-new,unusualproblemsforwhichinformationisambiguousorincompleteNonprogrammedDecisions-usedtoaddresspoorly-structuredproblemsproduceacustom-maderesponsemorefrequentamonghigher-levelmanagersfewdecisionsintherealworldareeitherfullyprogrammedornonprogrammed?JianjunZhangProgrammedversusnonprogrammeddecisionVariableTypeofDecision

ProgrammedNonprogrammedTypeoftaskSimple,routineComplex,creativeRelianceonorganizationalpoliciesConsiderableguidancefrompastdecisionsNoguidancefrompastdecisionsTypicaldecisionmakerLower-levelworkersUpper-levelsupervisorsTypesOfProblems,TypesOfDecisions,AndLevelInTheOrganizationProgrammedDecisionsNonprogrammedDecisionsLevelinOrganizationTopLowerWell-structuredIll-structuredTypeofProblem?JianjunZhangTheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)Decision-MakingConditionsCertainty-outcomeofeveryalternativeisknownidealisticratherthanrealisticRisk-abletoestimatetheprobabilityofoutcomesstemmingfromeachalternativeexpectedvalue-theconditionalreturnfromeachpossibleoutcomemultiplyexpectedrevenuefromeachoutcomebytheprobabilityofeachoutcome?JianjunZhangExpectedValueforRevenuesfromtheAdditionofOneSkiLiftJianjunZhangTheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)Decision-MakingConditions(cont.)Uncertainty-notcertainaboutoutcomesandunabletoestimateprobabilitiespsychologicalorientationofdecisionmakermaximaxchoice-optimisticmaximizingthemaximumpossiblepayoff（大中取大）maximinchoice-pessimisticmaximizingtheminimumpossiblepayoff（小中取大）minimax-minimizethemaximum“regret”（大中取小）?JianjunZhangPayoffMatrix?JianjunZhangRegretMatrix?JianjunZhangTheManagerAsDecisionMaker(cont.)BoundedRationalitybehaverationallywithintheparametersofasimplifieddecision-makingprocessthatislimitedbyanindividual’sabilitytoprocessinformationsatisfice-acceptsolutionsthatare“goodenough”escalationofcommitment-increasedcommitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrongrefusaltoadmitthattheinitialdecisionmayhavebeenflawed?JianjunZhangEscalationofCommitmentDecisiontoBeginaprojectactionNegativeresultsThreattoegoDecisiontopersistNegativeresultsThreattoegoSunkcostPressurefromOutsidepartiesDecisiontopersistSource:Staw,1976and2023TheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)Decision-MakingStylestwodimensionsdefinetheapproachtodecisionmakingwayofthinking-differsfromrationaltointuitivetoleranceforambiguity-differsfromaneedforconsistencyandordertotheabilitytoprocessmanythoughtssimultaneouslydefinefourdecision-makingstylesDirective-fast,efficient,andlogicalAnalytic-carefulandabletoadaptorcopewithnewsituationsConceptual-abletofindcreativesolutionsBehavioral-seekacceptanceofdecisions?JianjunZhangDecision-MakingStylesAnalyticDirectiveBehavioralRationalIntuitiveWayofThinkingConceptualHighLowToleranceforAmbiguity?JianjunZhang常見的認(rèn)知陷阱錨定陷阱現(xiàn)狀陷阱沉默成本陷阱可靠證據(jù)陷阱表述陷阱估計(jì)與預(yù)測陷阱：過于自信和過于謹(jǐn)慎的陷阱，易回顧性事件陷阱錨定（定準(zhǔn)，支架）陷阱

人口多少？現(xiàn)狀陷阱

四輪馬車第一輛汽車

現(xiàn)狀陷阱舒服的現(xiàn)狀賴床與溫水青蛙——積重難返我們心靈深處保護(hù)自己的想法張居正：“一條鞭法”

——拿鞭子鞭打自己商鞅變法與五馬分尸沉沒成本陷阱主要現(xiàn)象：問題債權(quán)發(fā)生時(shí)，大多數(shù)以追加貸款的形式解決問題不太采取撤收資金的方法受到沉淀成本的影響，銀行家的判斷經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)失敗解決方法：在任何問題出現(xiàn)前，選出新的銀行家來承擔(dān)工作必須選出對這個(gè)決策沒有利害關(guān)系的銀行家沉淀成本傾向?qū)︺y行業(yè)的影響~可靠證據(jù)陷阱從兩方面影響

從哪里

怎么

收集信息

解釋信息你看到了什么？表述陷阱情境：你公司的三艘貨運(yùn)船昨天沉船，每艘船上有價(jià)值20萬的貨物，如若不能在72小時(shí)內(nèi)打撈，貨物將全部報(bào)廢。一家專業(yè)從事海上貨物打撈的公司給你兩種不同描述的選擇方案：從得與失表述問題這套方案將會(huì)挽救你三艘貨船中的一艘，即挽救你20萬的貨物.方案二

這套方案有三分之一的概率挽救你的三艘總計(jì)60萬的貨物；當(dāng)然有三分之二的概率什么都挽救不了.方案一如果你是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避型，會(huì)選擇方案一。實(shí)驗(yàn)中71%的人選擇一五、框架陷阱這套方案將會(huì)損失你三艘貨船中的兩艘，即損失你40萬的貨物這套方案有三分之二的概率損失你的三艘總計(jì)60萬的貨物；當(dāng)然有三分之一的概率一點(diǎn)損失都沒有.方案三.方案四如果你是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)追求型，會(huì)選擇方案四。實(shí)驗(yàn)中80%的人選擇四從不同的參考點(diǎn)構(gòu)思問題

情境：你在銀行有2023元的存款，有人問你以下的問題：表述陷阱如果有這樣一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)，你有50%的概率損失300元，50%的概率賺得500元，你愿意嗎？.方案二你是愿意自己銀行戶頭里一直留有2000元錢呢，還是愿意嘗試這樣的機(jī)會(huì)，各有50的%的概率使你的銀行存款變成1700元或2500元。.方案一實(shí)驗(yàn)中大部分人選擇方案二卡內(nèi)基模型下的決策過程不確定性信息有限管理者之間持有不同的目標(biāo)、看法、價(jià)值觀及經(jīng)驗(yàn)建立聯(lián)盟聯(lián)合討論，分享各種看法，確定問題的優(yōu)先順序，獲得對該問題以及解決方案的社會(huì)性支持搜尋簡單搜尋，采用已有的程序解決問題，必要時(shí)創(chuàng)造解決問題的方案滿意化決策行為沖突比較群體和個(gè)人決策:三個(gè)臭皮匠頂?shù)牧酥T葛亮嗎？復(fù)雜問題簡單問題1.成員異質(zhì)性高2.成員互補(bǔ)性高3.充分溝通4.好的意見能夠被采納群體比個(gè)體好群體中的成員都有正確的答案嗎？群體成員會(huì)接受正確答案嗎？群體同最好的個(gè)人表現(xiàn)一樣好是群體不如最好的個(gè)人否GroupVersusIndividualDecisionMakingCriteriaofEffectiveness

Groups

IndividualsAccuracy xSpeed xCreativity xDegreeofacceptance xEfficiency x群體決策的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)優(yōu)點(diǎn)：－－集思廣益－－互補(bǔ)－－開放－－有效性－－穩(wěn)妥性和效率缺點(diǎn)－－反應(yīng)慢－－團(tuán)體偏移：妥協(xié)結(jié)果可能是保守或冒險(xiǎn)－－遵從壓力－－矛盾和對抗民主與獨(dú)裁各自的優(yōu)勢開明專制的要求：咨詢式獨(dú)裁東亞國家的經(jīng)驗(yàn)TherationalversusboundedrationalitymodelAssumptionsRationalModelBoundedRationalityModelRationalityofDecisionmakersPerfectrationalityBoundedrationalityInformationBasesofDecisionCompleteaccessNumbersandanalysisBoundedaccessIntuition,experienceSelectionofalternativesOptimalchoiceSatisfyingchoiceTypeofmodelNormativeDescriptive群體決策的兩種方式Advocacy--辯護(hù)式本位主義不同利益方的角力、壓制新的想法、Inquiry--調(diào)查咨詢式產(chǎn)生多種選擇、鼓勵(lì)意見交換、得出多次檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)論本質(zhì)區(qū)別

competingideasV.S.duelingdivisions

見解本身力量的競爭還是不同見解持有人力量的競爭？兩個(gè)決策例子—豬灣入侵CIA從自己部門利益出發(fā)力主入侵決策過程排除國會(huì)拉美專家參與弱化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、有選擇的匯報(bào)信息沒有檢驗(yàn)可能的變數(shù)兩個(gè)決策例子—古巴導(dǎo)彈危機(jī)自由討論兩種方案：封鎖或者空中打擊互相檢驗(yàn)對方方案KENNEDY最終拍板兩個(gè)決策例子—為何效果不同？相同的決策參與者，相同的政治環(huán)境，相同的重要性，為何結(jié)果不同？因?yàn)槿缦挛鍌€(gè)改變：角色定位：由不同部門代表者變?yōu)楹脩岩傻耐ú牛╯kepticalgeneralists)組織者的改變：不僅組織、拍板，更要發(fā)現(xiàn)問題（intellectualwatchdog)平等化：忘記現(xiàn)有規(guī)則、等級差別分組：因見解不同分組而不是因利益不同弱化領(lǐng)導(dǎo)影響：Kennedy缺席初期討論決策過程從辯護(hù)式變?yōu)檎{(diào)查式。如何才能做到呢？有效制定決策的三個(gè)要素—3CConstructiveconflict--建設(shè)性沖突Consideration

--考慮/體諒Closure--終止一.建設(shè)性沖突兩種類型的沖突

?

Cognitive:觀念上的、針對工作有不同看法而產(chǎn)生的沖突，健康的、有益的，對Inquiry至關(guān)重要

?

Affective:感情上的，包括個(gè)人摩擦、敵對，會(huì)削減人們的合作熱情，讓決策過程變得沒有效率，是Advocacy的一種特征

一．建設(shè)性沖突?把辯論當(dāng)作常態(tài)而不是例外

?形成兩方之間的對話，從而激勵(lì)辯論

一.建設(shè)性沖突：兩種方法

Point-Counterpoint

IntellectualWatchdog

把團(tuán)隊(duì)分成兩組;由A組提出一個(gè)計(jì)劃,包括建議,關(guān)鍵假設(shè),支持?jǐn)?shù)據(jù);由A組以書面和口頭的形式提交給B組;把團(tuán)隊(duì)分成兩組;由A組提出一個(gè)計(jì)劃,包括建議,關(guān)鍵假設(shè),支持?jǐn)?shù)據(jù);由A組以書面和口頭的形式提交給B組由B組產(chǎn)生一個(gè)或多個(gè)備選的行動(dòng)計(jì)劃;兩個(gè)組坐到一起來討論這些計(jì)劃,并尋求一致的一系列假設(shè);在這些假設(shè)的基礎(chǔ)上,兩個(gè)組繼續(xù)討論各種可行性,并試圖提出一致性的建議.由B組形成一個(gè)詳細(xì)的批評建議,并用書面和口頭的形式提交給A組;由A組針對這些反饋來修改其原來的計(jì)劃;兩個(gè)組周而復(fù)始的進(jìn)行這種修改-批評-修改的環(huán)節(jié),直至他們會(huì)聚于共同的焦點(diǎn);兩個(gè)組共同工作,提出一系列建議.二.考慮/體諒程序上的公平—領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者做最終決策，但必須要讓過程中的參與者認(rèn)為他們的觀點(diǎn)已被考慮到并且影響了最終的決定。如果參與者相信過程公平，他們會(huì)非常樂意執(zhí)行這個(gè)決定，即使他們的觀點(diǎn)并沒有被真正的采納。很多經(jīng)理人通過“聲音”來體現(xiàn)他們的公平：任何人都有機(jī)會(huì)表達(dá)自己的觀點(diǎn)。實(shí)際上，這種方式并不如Consideration來得重要。二.考慮/體諒在整個(gè)決策過程中，領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者都要注重“consideration”的重要性。他們決不能讓別人認(rèn)為已經(jīng)作出了決定，同時(shí)在過程初期也不能隨意透露自己對決策的個(gè)人喜好。在討論過程中，決策者必須作出一副積極傾聽和關(guān)注的姿態(tài)。在決策作出之后，決策者還必須設(shè)法描述該決策的合理性。而且，還要設(shè)法讓每一位參與者知道他們的意見如何影響了最終的決策，或者為什么決策有異于他們的建議。三.終止知道何時(shí)結(jié)束討論非常重要。過早制定決策和過遲制定決策都非常有害。

三.終止

過早決策正如“groupthink”,這種方式隨著strongadvocates的出現(xiàn)而變得流行。特別是在新團(tuán)隊(duì)中，成員仍在學(xué)習(xí)組織的規(guī)章，從而不想站出來成為一個(gè)反對者。

?善于發(fā)現(xiàn)潛在不滿：可以暫時(shí)中斷討論并逐個(gè)鼓勵(lì)反對者提出他們的觀點(diǎn)，然后重新開始。

?鼓勵(lì)少數(shù)人的觀點(diǎn)：雖然很少被采納，但這些觀點(diǎn)深化和廣化了討論，拓寬了組織的思路。

三.終止過遲決策

?兩種表現(xiàn):

敵對兩方都不肯屈服，一遍遍的重申他們的觀點(diǎn)。由于缺乏制動(dòng)機(jī)制，導(dǎo)致這種討論無休無止;

人們靜觀其變以尋求公平的參與。團(tuán)隊(duì)成員堅(jiān)持聽取每個(gè)觀點(diǎn)解決每個(gè)問題，再得出結(jié)論。從而又落入無休止的圈中。?需要決策者及時(shí)找出關(guān)鍵問題。TheManagerAsDecisionMaker(cont.)RoleofIntuitionintuitivedecisionmaking-subconsciousprocessofmakingdecisionsonthebasisofexperienceandaccumulatedjudgmentdoesnotrelyonasystematicorthoroughanalysisoftheproblemgenerallycomplementsarationalanalysis?JianjunZhangWhatIsIntuition?DecisionsbasedonexperienceDecisionsbasedonfeelingsandemotionsDecisionsbasedonethicalvaluesorcultureDecisionsbasedonsubconsciousdataDecisionsbasedonskills,knowledge,ortrainingIntuitionAffect-initiateddecisionsExperienced-baseddecisionsValuesorethics-baseddecisionsSubconsciousmentalprocessingCognitive-baseddecisions?JianjunZhang6-65GarbageCanModel:

野渡無人舟自橫?GarbagecanDisorder,chaos,randomChoiceslookingforproblems,issueslookingfordecisionsituations,solutionslookingforissues,decisionmakerslookingforworkOrganizedanarchyContinuedStreamsofevents--Problems--Solutions--Participants--Choiceopportunities? consequences:--solutionsproposedwhenproblemsdonotexist--choicesmadewithoutsolvingproblems--problemsmaypersistwithoutbeingsolved--afewproblemsaresolved.野渡無人舟自橫野渡無人舟自橫野渡無人舟自橫野渡無人舟自橫ApplicationUniversitiesPublicorganizationsExamples:Casablanca,楊乃武與小白菜一案ContrastwithrationalmodelOverviewOfManagerialDecisionMakingDecision-MakingProcessTypesofProblemsandDecisionsWell-structured -programmedPoorlystructured -nonprogrammedDecision-Maki