經(jīng)濟(jì)通貨膨脹管理與財(cái)務(wù)知識(shí)分析

第18章失業(yè)與通貨膨脹Chapter18UnemploymentandInflation1Contents失業(yè)通貨膨脹失業(yè)與通脹根本問題起因、影響與對(duì)策定義衡量分類2第一節(jié)失業(yè)Unemployment3一、失業(yè)的相關(guān)概念

〔TherelatedconceptiononUnemployment〕充分就業(yè)摩擦失業(yè)自愿失業(yè)非自愿失業(yè)4其它觀點(diǎn)

〔OtherViewpoints)結(jié)構(gòu)性失業(yè)周期性失業(yè)自然失業(yè)率5失業(yè)率的統(tǒng)計(jì)美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局〔BLS〕抽樣調(diào)查6奧肯定律(Okun’sLaws)說明產(chǎn)出變化與失業(yè)率變化間關(guān)系的一條經(jīng)驗(yàn)定律。中國(guó)“奧肯定律悖論〞7TheUSMiseryIndexMiseryIndex=Unemploymentrate+Inflationrate8第二節(jié)通貨膨脹TheInflation9一、通貨膨脹的定義(Definition)物價(jià)派貨幣派10凱恩斯主義與貨幣主義米爾頓·弗里德曼

〔1912-2006〕,

創(chuàng)立了貨幣主義理論，提出了永久性收入假說凱恩斯〔1883-1946〕11物價(jià)派OR貨幣派？12通貨緊縮

〔Deflation)通貨緊縮：物價(jià)水平的持續(xù)下降，伴隨著貨幣供給量的減少和經(jīng)濟(jì)的衰退。13二、通貨膨脹的衡量〔Measurement〕消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)CPI〔Theconsumerpriceindex)生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)PPI〔Theproducerpriceindex〕GDP折算指數(shù)(GDPdeflator)14HowtheCPIisCalculated？FixtheBasket；FindthePrices:ComputetheBasket’sCost:ChooseaBaseYearandComputetheIndex:Computetheinflationrate:TheBureauofLaborStatisticsreportstheCPIeachmonth.15HousingFood/BeveragesTransportationMedicalCareApparelRecreationOtherEducationandcommunicationWhat’sintheCPI’sBasket?40%16%17%6%5%6%5%5%16TwoMeasuresofInflation1965PercentperYear1510501970197519801985199019952000CPIGDPdeflator17三、分類A、通貨膨脹程度1〕爬行的通貨膨脹(Creepinginflation)2〕溫和的通貨膨脹(Mildinflation)3〕奔騰的通貨膨脹(Gallopinginflation)4〕超級(jí)通貨膨脹(Hyperinflation)18ACase:1985年的玻利維亞當(dāng)通脹率為116000%時(shí)，價(jià)格每小時(shí)都在變化3瓶阿司匹林的錢，在3年前可以買一輛豪華豐田轎車自動(dòng)售貨機(jī)以35000比索售出一塊巧克力，五分鐘后，另一塊上升為50000比索1000比索的印刷費(fèi)超出其所購(gòu)置商品價(jià)格工人工資年上漲1500%，工人還在罷工出行寧愿坐出租車，而不坐公共汽車19B、起因1)需求拉動(dòng)通貨膨脹〔Demand-pullinflation〕2)本錢推動(dòng)通貨膨脹〔Cost-pushinflation〕3)結(jié)構(gòu)性通貨膨脹〔Structuralinflation〕

20四、通貨膨脹的起因、影響及對(duì)策TheSourceandEffectofInflationandTheAnti-Inflationpolicy21通貨膨脹的起因

〔TheSourceofInflation〕A、需求拉動(dòng)的通貨膨脹〔Demand-pullInflation〕AD變大，曲線向右上方移動(dòng)yPASAD3AD4AD1AD222需求拉動(dòng)的通貨膨脹OPricelevelNationaloutputASAD1P1Q123OPricelevelNationaloutputASAD1P1Q1AD2需求拉動(dòng)的通貨膨脹24OPricelevelNationaloutputASAD1P1Q1AD2P2Q2需求拉動(dòng)的通貨膨脹25B、本錢推動(dòng)的通貨膨脹

〔Cost-PushInflation〕工資推動(dòng)型通貨膨脹利潤(rùn)推動(dòng)型通貨膨脹工資——價(jià)格螺旋

yPAS1AS2AD26本錢推動(dòng)通貨膨脹OPricelevelNationaloutputAS1ADP1Q127OPricelevelNationaloutputAS1ADP1Q1AS2本錢推動(dòng)通貨膨脹28OPricelevelNationaloutputAS1ADP1Q1AS2P2Q2本錢推動(dòng)通貨膨脹29Theinteractionofdemand-pullandcost-pushinflationOPricelevelNationaloutputAS1AD1P130OPricelevelNationaloutputAS1AD1P1AS2AD2P2Theinteractionofdemand-pullandcost-pushinflation31OPricelevelNationaloutputAS1AD1P1AD2P2AS3AD3P3AS2Theinteractionofdemand-pullandcost-pushinflation32Initialdemand-pullinflationONationaloutputPricelevelASshortrunADP0a33ONationaloutputPricelevelASADP0AD1P1abInitialdemand-pullinflation34ONationaloutputPricelevelASADP0AD1P1abAD2P2cInitialdemand-pullinflation35ONationaloutputPricelevelASADP0AD1P1abAD2cSubsequentsupplyresponseAS1P2P3dInitialdemand-pullinflation36ONationaloutputPricelevelASADP0AD1P1abAD2cSubsequentdemandresponseAS1dP2P3AD3P4eInitialdemand-pullinflation37ONationaloutputPricelevelASADP0AD1P1abAD2cAS1dP2P3AD3P4eSubsequentsupplyresponseAS2P5fInitialdemand-pullinflation38ONationaloutputPricelevelASADP0AD1P1abAD2cAS1dP2P3AD3P4eAD4SubsequentdemandresponseAS2fP5gP6Initialdemand-pullinflation39C、結(jié)構(gòu)性通貨膨脹〔StructuralInflation〕yPAD1AD2AS1AS2不同部門間工資增長(zhǎng)率相互看齊40通貨膨脹的影響(Impact)有利于利潤(rùn)收入者，不利于工資收入者〔工資粘性〕有利于債務(wù)人，不利于債權(quán)人〔利率契約性〕有利于政府，不利于公眾〔累進(jìn)稅與固定稅率情況下，“通貨膨脹稅〞〕41反通貨膨脹的政策

〔TheAnti-InflationPolicy〕A、DeflationPolicy緊縮政策〔解決需求拉動(dòng)的通貨膨脹〕B、IncomePolicy收入政策〔解決本錢推進(jìn)的通貨膨脹〕C、StructuralPolicy結(jié)構(gòu)政策〔解決結(jié)構(gòu)性通貨膨脹〕42第三節(jié)失業(yè)與通貨膨脹UnemploymentandInflation痛苦指數(shù)miseryindex菲利浦斯曲線

(ThePhillipsCurves)43A、早期的菲利浦斯曲線

〔EarlyPhillipsCurves〕〔A·W·Phillips1914-1975〕失業(yè)率通貨膨脹率Uf44B、作用(Function)提供了一份“政策選擇的菜單〞失業(yè)率通貨膨脹率社會(huì)臨界點(diǎn)45ThePhillipsCurveinthe1960s...UnemploymentRate(percent)InflationRate(percentperyear)0123456789102468101968