ToExchangeRateFluctuations國際金融管理-山東

MeasuringExposureTo

ExchangeRateFluctuations10

ChapterSouth-Western/ThomsonLearning?2003Seec10.xlsforspreadsheetstoaccompanythischapter.ChapterObjectivesTodiscusstherelevanceofan MNC’sexposuretoexchangeraterisk;Toexplainhowtransactionexposurecanbemeasured;Toexplainhoweconomicexposurecanbemeasured;andToexplainhowtranslationexposurecanbemeasured.IsExchangeRateRiskRelevant?PurchasingPowerParityArgumentExchangeratemovementswillbematchedbypricemovements.PPPdoesnotnecessarilyhold.IsExchangeRateRiskRelevant?TheInvestorHedgeArgumentMNCshareholderscanhedgeagainstexchangeratefluctuationsontheirown.Theinvestorsmaynothavecompleteinformationoncorporateexposure.Theymaynothavethecapabilitiestocorrectlyinsulatetheirindividualexposuretoo.CurrencyDiversificationArgumentAnMNCthatiswelldiversifiedshouldnotbeaffectedbyexchangeratemovementsbecauseofoffsettingeffects.Thisisanaivepresumption.IsExchangeRateRiskRelevant?StakeholderDiversificationArgumentWelldiversifiedstakeholderswillbesomewhatinsulatedagainstlossesexperiencedbyanMNCduetoexchangeraterisk.MNCsmaybeaffectedinthesamewaybecauseofexchangeraterisk.IsExchangeRateRiskRelevant?ResponsefromMNCsManyMNCshaveattemptedtostabilizetheirearningswithhedgingstrategies,whichconfirmstheviewthatexchangerateriskisrelevant.IsExchangeRateRiskRelevant?OnlineApplication11/30/01ImpliedVols1

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YearEUR10.99.910.911.211.711.911.911.8JPY9.18.99.59.910.410.610.710.7CHF11.210.311.211.511.912.112.012.0GBP9.08.18.89.19.49.59.69.7CAD6.25.96.06.16.16.16.26.1AUD10.410.311.011.411.812.012.012.0GBPEUR8.16.97.47.78.48.78.68.5EURJPY9.39.09.710.310.811.311.411.4TypesofExposureAlthoughexchangeratescannotbeforecastedwithperfectaccuracy,firmscanatleastmeasuretheirexposuretoexchangeratefluctuations.Exposuretoexchangeratefluctuationscomesinthreeforms:TransactionexposureEconomicexposureTranslationexposureTransactionExposureThedegreetowhichthevalueoffuturecashtransactionscanbeaffectedbyexchangeratefluctuationsisreferredtoastransactionexposure（交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）.Tomeasuretransactionexposure:projectthenetamountofinflowsoroutflowsineachforeigncurrency,anddeterminetheoverallriskofexposuretothosecurrencies.MNCscanusuallyanticipateforeigncashflowsforanupcomingshort-termperiodwithreasonableaccuracy.AftertheconsolidatednetcurrencyflowsfortheentireMNChasbeendetermined,eachnetflowisconvertedintoeitherapointestimateorarangeofachosencurrency,soastostandardizetheexposureassessmentforeachcurrency.TransactionExposureAnMNC’soverallexposurecanbeassessedbyconsideringeachcurrencyposition（頭寸）togetherwiththecurrency’svariability（可變性）andthecorrelationsamongthecurrencies.Thestandarddeviationstatisticonhistoricaldataservesasonemeasureofcurrencyvariability.Notethatcurrencyvariabilitylevelsmaychangeovertime.TransactionExposureCurrency1981-19931994-1998Britishpound 0.0309 0.0148Canadiandollar 0.0100 0.0110Indianrupee 0.0219 0.0168Japaneseyen 0.0279 0.0298NewZealanddollar 0.0289 0.0190Swedishkrona 0.0287 0.0195Swissfranc 0.0330 0.0246Singaporedollar 0.0111 0.0174TransactionExposureStandardDeviationsofExchangeRateMovementsBasedonMonthlyDataThecorrelationsamongcurrencymovementscanbemeasuredbytheircorrelationcoefficients,whichindicatethedegreetowhichtwocurrenciesmoveinrelationtoeachother.

coefficientperfectpositivecorrelation 1.00nocorrelation 0.00perfectnegativecorrelation -1.00TransactionExposure￡Can$￥

NZ$Sk

SwFBritishpound(￡) 1.00Canadiandollar(Can$) .18 1.00Japaneseyen(￥) .45 .06 1.00NewZealanddollar(NZ$) .39 .20 .33 1.00Swedishkrona(Sk) .62 .16 .46 .33 1.00Swissfranc(SwF) .63 .12 .61 .37 .70 1.00TransactionExposureCorrelationsAmongExchangeRateMovementsThepointinconsideringcorrelationsistodetectpositionsthatcouldsomewhatoffseteachother.Forexample,ifcurrenciesXandYarehighlycorrelated,theexposuresofanetXinflowandanetYoutflowwilloffseteachothertoacertaindegree.Notethatthecorrrelationsamongcurrenciesmaychangeovertime.TransactionExposureMovementsofSelectedCurrencies

AgainsttheDollar$/100￥$/10Indianrupees$/Chineseyuan$/5Swedishkrona$/Canadian$$/Singapore$$perunitArelatedmethod,thevalue-at-risk(VAR)method,incorporatescurrencyvolatilityandcorrelationstodeterminethepotentialmaximumone-dayloss.Historicaldataisusedtodeterminethepotentialone-daydeclineinaparticularcurrency.Thisdeclineisthenappliedtothenetcashflowsinthatcurrency.TransactionExposureEconomicExposureEconomicexposurereferstothedegreetowhichafirm’spresentvalueoffuturecashflowscanbeinfluencedbyexchangeratefluctuations.Cashflowsthatdonotrequireconversionofcurrenciesdonotreflecttransactionexposure.Yet,thesecashflowsmayalsobeinfluencedsignificantlybyexchangeratemovements.EconomicExposureTransactionsthatInfluencetheFirm’sCashInflowsLocalCurrencyAppreciatesLocalCurrencyDepreciatesLocalsales(relativetoforeigncompetitioninlocalmarkets)Firm’sexportsdenominatedinlocalcurrencyFirm’sexportsdenominatedinforeigncurrencyInterestreceivedfromforeigninvestmentsDecreaseDecreaseDecreaseDecrease

IncreaseIncreaseIncreaseIncreaseImpactonTransactionsTransactionsreflectingtransactionexposure.EconomicExposureTransactionsthatInfluencetheFirm’sCashOutflowsLocalCurrencyAppreciatesLocalCurrencyDepreciatesImpactonTransactionsTransactionsreflectingtransactionexposure.Firm’simportedsuppliesdenominatedinlocalcurrencyFirm’simportedsuppliesdenominatedinforeigncurrencyInterestowedonforeignfundsborrowedNoChangeDecreaseDecrease

NoChangeIncreaseIncreaseEvenpurelydomesticfirmsmaybeaffectedbyeconomicexposureifthereisforeigncompetitionwithinthelocalmarkets.MNCsarelikelytobemuchmoreexposedtoexchangeratefluctuations.TheimpactvariesacrossMNCsaccordingtotheirindividualoperatingcharacteristicsandnetcurrencypositions.EconomicExposureOnemeasureofeconomicexposureinvolvesclassifyingthefirm’scashflowsintoincomestatementitems,andthenreviewinghowtheearningsforecastintheincomestatementchangesinresponsetoalternativeexchangeratescenarios.Ingeneral,firmswithmoreforeigncoststhanrevenueswillbeunfavorablyaffectedbystrongerforeigncurrencies.EconomicExposureAnothermethodofassessingafirm’seconomicexposureinvolvesapplyingregressionanalysistohistoricalcashflowandexchangeratedata.EconomicExposure

PCFt=a0+a1et+t PCFt = %changeininflation-adjustedcashflowsmeasuredinthefirm’shomecurrencyoverperiodt et = %changeinthecurrencyexchangerateoverperiodt

t = randomerrorterm（隨機(jī)誤差） a0 = intercept（截距） a1 = slopecoefficient（斜率相關(guān)系數(shù)）EconomicExposureTheregressionmodelmayberevisedtohandlemultiplecurrenciesbyincludingthemasadditionalindependentvariables,orbyusingacurrencyindex(composite).Bychangingthedependentvariable,theimpactofexchangeratesonthefirm’svalue(asmeasuredbyitsstockprice),earnings,exports,sales,etc.mayalsobeassessed.EconomicExposureTranslationExposureTheexposureoftheMNC’sconsolidatedfinancialstatementstoexchangeratefluctuationsisknownastranslationexposure.Inparticular,subsidiaryearningstranslatedintothereportingcurrencyontheconsolidatedincomestatementaresubjecttochangingexchangerates.TranslationExposureDoesTranslationExposureMatter?CashFlowPerspective-TranslatingfinancialstatementsforconsolidatedreportingpurposesdoesnotbyitselfaffectanMNC’scashflows.However,aweakforeigncurrencytodaymayresultinaforecastofaweakexchangerateatthetimesubsidiaryearningsareactuallyremitted.TranslationExposureStockPricePerspective-SinceanMNC’stranslationexposureaffectsitsconsolidatedearningsandmanyinvestorstendtouseearningswhenvaluingfirms,theMNC’svaluationmaybeaffected.DoesTranslationExposureMatter?Ingeneral,translationexposureisrelevantbecausesomeMNCsubsidiariesmaywanttoremittheirearningstotheirparentsnow,theprevailingexchangeratesmaybeusedtoforecasttheexpectedcashflowsthatwillresultfromfutureremittances,andconsolidatedearningsareusedbymanyinvestorstovalueMNCs.TranslationExposureAnMNC’sdegreeoftranslationexposureisdependenton:theproportionofitsbusinessconductedbyitsforeignsubsidiaries,thelocationsofitsforeignsubsidiaries,andtheaccountingmethodthatituses.TranslationExposureAccordingtoWorldResearchAdvisoryestimates,thetranslatedearningsofU.S.-basedMNCsinaggregatewerereducedby$20billioninthethirdquarterof1998alonesimplybecauseofthedepreciationofAsiancurrenciesagainstthedollar.In2000,theweaknessoftheeuroalsocausedseveralU.S.-basedMNCstoreportlowerearningsthanexpected.TranslationExposureOnlineApplicationImpactofExchangeRateExposure

onanMNC’sValue

E(CFj,t) = expectedcashflowsincurrencyjtobereceivedbytheU.S.parentattheendofperiodt E(ERj,t) = expectedexchangerateatwhichcurrencyjcanbeconvertedtodollarsattheendofperiodt k = weightedaveragecostofcapitaloftheparentTransactionExposureEconomicExposureIsExchangeRateRiskRelevant?PurchasingPowerParityArgumentTheInvestorHedgeArgumentCurrencyDiversificationArgumentStakeholderDiversificationArgumentResponsefromMNCsTypesofExposureTransaction,Economic,andTranslationExposuresChapterReviewChapterReviewTransactionExposureTransactionExposureto“Net”CashFlowsTransactionExposureBasedonCurrencyVariabilityTransactionExposureBasedonCurrencyCorrelationsTransactionExposureBasedonValue-at-RiskChapterReviewEconomicExposureEconomicExposuretoLocalCurrencyAppreciation&DepreciationEconomicExposureofDomesticFirms&MNCsMeasuringEconomicExposureSensitivityofEarnings&CashFlowstoExchangeRatesChapterReviewTranslationExposureDoesTranslationExposureMatter?CashFlowPerspectiveStockPricePerspectiveDeterminantsofTranslationExposureExamplesofTranslationExposureImpactofExchangeRateExposureonanMNC’sValue謝謝觀看/歡迎下載BYFAITHIMEANAVISIONOFGOODONECHERISHESANDTHEENTHUSIASMTHATPUSHESONETOSEEKITSFULFILLMENTREGARDLESSOFOBSTACLES.BYFAITHIBYFAITH一本萬利工程1、背景驅(qū)動(dòng)2、盈利策略3、選菜試菜4、價(jià)值創(chuàng)造5、完美呈現(xiàn)6、成功面試7、持續(xù)改造（一）、一本萬利工程的背景驅(qū)動(dòng)

1、什么是一本萬利

2、餐飲時(shí)代的變遷菜單經(jīng)驗(yàn)的指導(dǎo)方針運(yùn)營市場定位的體現(xiàn)經(jīng)營水平的體現(xiàn)體現(xiàn)餐廳的特色與水準(zhǔn)溝通的工具餐廳對(duì)顧客的承諾菜單承諾的六大表現(xiàn)1、名字的承諾2、質(zhì)量的承諾3、價(jià)格的承諾4、規(guī)格標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的承諾5、外文翻譯的準(zhǔn)確6、保證供應(yīng)的承諾

1、顧客滿意度餐廳價(jià)值、價(jià)格、合理感、愉快感、安心感、美味感、便利感、滿足感、有價(jià)值感、喜悅感、特別感2-2、初期投資餐廳面積、保證金、設(shè)備投資、店鋪裝潢、器具用品投資、制服選定、菜單制作2-1、開業(yè)準(zhǔn)備廚具、供應(yīng)商選定、設(shè)計(jì)、用品選定、餐廳配置、員工訓(xùn)練、餐廳氣氛、促銷方式3、經(jīng)營數(shù)據(jù)營業(yè)額、客流量、成本率、人均消費(fèi)、顧客回頭率、出品速度、人事費(fèi)用菜單內(nèi)容決定決定相關(guān)相關(guān)決定決定決定決定以菜單為導(dǎo)向的硬件投資

1、餐廳的裝修風(fēng)格2、硬件設(shè)施服務(wù)操作3、餐廳動(dòng)線4、餐具與家俬5、廚房布局6、廚房設(shè)備菜單設(shè)計(jì)正果1、能誘導(dǎo)顧客購買你想讓他買的餐點(diǎn)2、能迅速傳達(dá)餐廳要表達(dá)的東西3、雙贏：顧客喜歡、餐廳好賣餐廳時(shí)代的變遷食物時(shí)代硬體時(shí)代軟體時(shí)代心體時(shí)代食物食品饑食飽食品質(zhì)挑食品味品食品德懼食體驗(yàn)人們正在追尋更多的感受，更多的意義更多的體驗(yàn)，更多的幸福（二）盈利策略1、組建工程團(tuán)隊(duì)2、確定核心價(jià)值3、確定盈利目標(biāo)4、確定客單價(jià)5、設(shè)計(jì)盈利策略6、確定核心產(chǎn)品誰來設(shè)計(jì)菜單？產(chǎn)品=做得出來的物品商品=賣得出去的物品商家=產(chǎn)品具備商品附加值物（什么產(chǎn)品）+事（滿足顧客何種需求）從物到事從食物到餐飲從吃什么到為什么吃產(chǎn)品本身決定一本，產(chǎn)品附加值決定萬利從生理到心理從物質(zhì)到精神從概念到五覺體驗(yàn)創(chuàng)造產(chǎn)品的五覺附加值體驗(yàn)何來

一家企業(yè)以服務(wù)為舞臺(tái)以商品為道具，讓消費(fèi)者完全投入的時(shí)候，體驗(yàn)就出現(xiàn)了PART01物=你的企業(yè)賣什么產(chǎn)品+事=能滿足顧客何種需求？確定核心價(jià)值理念核心價(jià)值理念1、賣什么樣的菜2、賣什么樣的氛圍？3、如何接待顧客？賣給誰？賣什么事？賣什么價(jià)？企業(yè)目標(biāo)的設(shè)定1、理論導(dǎo)向的目標(biāo)設(shè)定2、預(yù)算3、制定利潤目標(biāo)費(fèi)用營業(yè)額虧損區(qū)利潤區(qū)臨界點(diǎn)變動(dòng)費(fèi)用總費(fèi)用營業(yè)額曲線費(fèi)用線X型損益圖利潤導(dǎo)向的目標(biāo)設(shè)定確定目標(biāo)設(shè)定營業(yè)收入=固定成本+目標(biāo)利潤1-變動(dòng)成本率-營業(yè)稅率例：A餐廳每月固定成本40萬，變動(dòng)成本50%，營業(yè)稅率5.5%，目標(biāo)利率每月8萬，問A餐廳的月營業(yè)收入：月營收入=（40+8）÷（1-50%-5.5%）=48÷0.445=108萬測算損益平衡點(diǎn)保本線=固定成本1-變動(dòng)成本率-營業(yè)稅率例：A餐廳保本線=40÷（1-50%-5.5%）

=40÷0.445

=90萬定價(jià)的三重意義2、向競爭對(duì)手發(fā)出的信息和信號(hào)1、是利潤最大化和最重要的決定因素3、價(jià)格本事是價(jià)值的體現(xiàn)定價(jià)由此開始1、評(píng)估產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)的質(zhì)量2、尋求顧客價(jià)值與平衡點(diǎn)3、以價(jià)值定義市場確定客單價(jià)盈利占比策略

占比策略內(nèi)部策略銷售占比占比策略內(nèi)部策略10%40%10%20%20%（三）、選菜試菜1、ABC產(chǎn)品分析2、產(chǎn)品的確定（食材、口味、烹調(diào)、餐飲）3、成本的確定ABC分析策略毛利率營業(yè)額CBACABBACCCAA營業(yè)額C毛利A優(yōu)化、提升增加銷售雙A雙贏ABC顧客商品漲價(jià)保留虧本商品刪營業(yè)額A毛利C顧客超額、成本過高有意義的保留無意義的刪除雙C雙輸菜單內(nèi)容選擇的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)因素成本設(shè)備廚師技術(shù)操作空間菜系風(fēng)格吻合度品質(zhì)可控度原料供應(yīng)顧客喜好菜單協(xié)議度（銷售目標(biāo)、顏色、口味、造型、營養(yǎng)等）產(chǎn)品類別確定的四個(gè)方面1、按食材確定比例2、按口味確定比例3、按烹飪確定比例4、按餐飲確定比例

（無酒精飲品、含酒精飲品比例）框架依據(jù)操作依據(jù)目標(biāo)依據(jù)成本依據(jù)試口味成本操作第一次試菜的內(nèi)容精確的成本核算—五個(gè)關(guān)鍵詞1、凈料率（一料一控、一料多檔）2、調(diào)味料成本（單件產(chǎn)品、批量產(chǎn)品）3、燃料成本4、統(tǒng)一計(jì)量單位5、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)食譜成本卡試口味餐具造型色彩第二次試菜的內(nèi)容四料構(gòu)成表1、符合思想審定2、符合目標(biāo)審定3、符合定位審定4、符合框架審定四平構(gòu)成表(四)、創(chuàng)造價(jià)值1、定價(jià)策略的確定2、提升雙A核心產(chǎn)品的附加值3、增加更多的顧客選擇性顧客會(huì)記住的價(jià)格最低價(jià)人均消費(fèi)熱門暢銷品商品較多的價(jià)格帶最高價(jià)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格和觀念價(jià)值永遠(yuǎn)是不一樣的，體驗(yàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代出售的不是產(chǎn)品價(jià)格，而是觀念定價(jià)與確定價(jià)格的區(qū)別確定價(jià)格產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)主導(dǎo)思路確定一個(gè)易于銷售的價(jià)格由企業(yè)根據(jù)成本以及和其他企業(yè)的比較確定定價(jià)基于顧客的價(jià)值私立評(píng)估價(jià)值、確定等級(jí)在顧客和企業(yè)的來往過程中確定企業(yè)定價(jià)三大策略1、薄利多銷策略2、相對(duì)穩(wěn)定價(jià)格策略3、高價(jià)位價(jià)格策略提升產(chǎn)品附加值的“十大絕招”三好七增名字好賣相故事服務(wù)選擇文案時(shí)間體驗(yàn)健康推廣感覺“附加值”提升產(chǎn)品附加值的