德國(guó)外交關(guān)系理事會(huì)-作為國(guó)家安全投資的減排 Emissions Mitigation as a National Security Investment 2023

GermanCouncilonForeignRelations

ZEITEN

WENDE

No.22July2023

POLICYBRIEF

TimBosch

ProjectManager,Centerfor

ClimateandForeignPolicy

LoyleCampbell

ResearchFellow,Centerfor

ClimateandForeignPolicy

Dr.KiraVinke

HeadoftheCenterfor

ClimateandForeignPolicy

EmissionsMitigationasaNationalSecurityInvestment

Germany’sfirstNationalSecurityStrategyidentifiessustainabilityasapillarofpeaceandstability.However,innavigatingtherecentenergycrisisresultingfromRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,thegovern-menthasprioritizedshort-termcrisismanagementoverlong-termclimategoals.IftheZeitenwendeistobealargerpolicyshift,Chan-cellorOlafScholzneedstodrivethecabinettore-prioritizerapiddecarbonizationtomeetclimateobligations.Fosteringindepen-dencefromfossil-fuelautocraciesandavertingthedisintegrationofthemultilateraleffortstoprotecttheglobalcommonslaythebasisforfreedomandsecurity.

InlinewiththeNationalSecurityStrategy’sstressonapre-ventiveapproach,rapidemissionsreductionsarecrucialformaintainingthecountry’seconomicresilienceandcredibilityasaleaderonclimateaction.

Increasingecosystemcollapseandlife-threateningextremeeventswillmovemultilateralandplurilateralclimateactionandtheracetoleadingreentechnologiescenterstageingeopolitics.

Thegreentransitionnecessitatestheengagementofnotjustthestatebutofallstakeholders,includingbusinessandindivid-uals.TheresponsestotheCOVID-19pandemicandtheenergycrisisprovidevaluablelessonsfortherequiredshift.

–EuropeanoffshorewindandcirculareconomyprojectswouldhaveclimatemitigationeffectsandprovideopportunitiestobolsterGermany’sgeopoliticalpositionandeconomicoutlook.

2No.22|July2023

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POLICYBRIEF

TheGeopoliticsoftheZeitenwendein

theEnergyCrisis

Russia’sroleasthedominantoilandnaturalgassup-plierforGermanyplacedenergypolicyattheheartoftheZeitenwende.Whilemanyactorshadalreadyraisedconcernsabouttheseimportdependencies,thefull-scaleinvasionofUkraineinFebruary2022forcedanacuterealizationofthedepthofGermany’svulnerability.1Thesituationwasaggravatedbythede-structionoftheNordStreampipelines.InhisFebru-ary2022Zeitenwendespeech,ChancellorOlafScholzstatedthataresponsibleandfarsightedenergypolicywouldimproveenergysecurity.2Thisistoberealizedbyscalingupthedeploymentofrenewablestoincreaseautonomyofsupplyandbydiversifyingenergyimports.

Germanysubsequentlyleasedfloatingliquefiednatu-ralgas(LNG)importcapacityoffitscoast,withthesebecomingoperationalwithinmonths.Itfacilitatedthisthroughaquicklegislativeprocessandamobi-lizationoffunding.3AccordingtoScholz,this“newGermanspeed”shouldbeablueprintforeconomictransformationasawhole.4Atthesametime,energycompaniessoughtLNGimportsontheglobalmarkettosupplytoGermany.Thequantitiessecuredthusfararesignificant,althoughindividualcontractsaccountonlyforasmallshareofthecurrentlevelofLNGde-mand.5Thesesteps,alongwithchangesinconsumer

behavior,helpedavoidthemoreseverepredictedim-pactsoftheenergycrisisoverthepastyear.

Thegovernmentdescribesnaturalgasasashort-to-medium-termbridgingtechnologywhileGermanyscalesuprenewablesanddecarbonizesindustrialactivity.However,theconcernisthatitwillbeusedforlongerthanneededandthatLNGinfrastructureandcontractsmaylocknaturalgasintotheener-gymix.Forinstance,thecountry’simportcapacitymayexceeddemandfrom2030.6CompanycontractsforLNGimportsstretchoveraperiodof15years.7In2022theEUimported60percentmoreLNGthanin2021,andtwo-thirdsofthisnewsupplycamefromtheUnitedStates.8Whilethetransatlanticallianceiscrucial,newasymmetricalenergyrelationscouldleaveEuropevulnerableifAmericanpolicychanges.

Thesedevelopmentsarepartofaninternationaltrendofexpansionofgasinvestmentsthatunder-minesdeclaredambitionstofulfillthegoalsoftheParisClimateAgreement.ItisestimatedthatifalltheLNGinfrastructureplannedgloballywasrealized,thecapacityin2030wouldamountto235percentcom-paredto2022levels.Internationally,thiswouldimplyasurplusof1.9gigatonsofcarbondioxideequivalentcomparedtocapacitiescompatiblewithnet-zeroscenariosbymid-century.9

1Russiasupplied55percentofGermany’snaturalgasneedsin2021.SeeBundesministeriumfürWirtschaftundKlimaschutz(FederalMinistryofEconomyandClimateProtection),“FAQ-ListeLNG-TerminalinDeutschland,”March6,2022:

https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/F/faq-liste-lng-terminal-in-deutschland.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=8

(accessedJune12,2023).

2TheFederalGovernment,“PolicystatementbyOlafScholz,ChancelloroftheFederalRepublicofGermanyandMemberoftheGermanBundestag,

27February2022inBerlin,”February22,2022:

https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/policy-statement-by-olaf-scholz-chancellor-of-the-

federal-republic-of-germany-and-member-of-the-german-bundestag-27-february-2022-in-berlin-2008378

(accessedJune12,2023).

3EdwardDonelly,“WashinterdemglobalenLNG-Boomsteckt,”Klimareporter,May2,2023:

https://www.klimareporter.de/finanzen-wirtschaft/was-hinter-dem-globalen-lng-boom-steckt

(accessedJune27,2023).

4TheFederalGovernment,“FederalChancellorScholzaddressestheWorldEconomicForum:Itisnowcrystal-clearthatthefuturebelongssolelytorenewables,”January18,2023:

https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/search/scholz-wef-2023-2158700

(accessedJune12,2023).

5Inthefallof2022,theGermangovernmentengageddiplomaticallytofacilitateadealforLNGdeliveriesfromQatar.TheagreementwasenabledbyGermanMinisterofEconomyRobertHabeckandconcludedbetweenasubsidiaryoftheUScompanyConocoPhillipsandstate-ownedQatarEnergy.Startingfrom2026,the15-yearsupplycontractsecuresamaximumquantityof2milliontonsLNGannually(equivalentto2.7billioncubicmeters(bcm))tobedeliveredbyshiptothenewGermanLNGterminalinBrunsbüttel.Toputthequantitiesof2.7bcmincontext,Germany’stotaldemandin

2021was90.5bcm.Attheendof2022,theGermanenergyutilityRWEalsosecureda15-yearcontractwiththeUScompanySempraInfrastructure,foravolumeof2.25milliontonsofLNGannually.SeeKathrinWitschandKlausStratmann,“DeutschlandsGas-DealmitKatardecktnurBruchteildesLNG-Bedarfsab,”Handelsblatt,November29,2022:

/politik/international/fluessiggas-deutschlands-gas-deal-

mit-katar-deckt-nur-bruchteil-des-lng-bedarfs-ab/28837006.html#:~:text=F%C3%BCr%20Deutschland%20ist%20der%2015,5%20Milliarden%20

Kubikmeter%20Erdgas%20verbraucht

(accessedJune27,2023);ConocoPhillips,?ConocoPhillipsandQatarEnergyAgreetoProvideReliableLNGSuppytoGermany“,November29,2022:

/news-media/story/conocophillips-and-qatarenergy-agree-to-provide-

reliable-lng-supply-to-germany

(accessedJuly7,2023);“RWEschlie?tLNG-VertragmitUS-Unternehmen,”Tagesschau,December28,2022:

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/lng-fluessigerdgas-rwe-usa-101.html

(accessedJune27,2023).

6LoyleCampbellandLeonieOechtering,“TheGermanGreens’IdentityCrisis,”IPQuarterly,May2,2023:

/en/german-greens-

identity-crisis

(accessedJune12,2023).ConcernsaboutapotentialoversupplyofLNGarenourishedbylong-termprojectplanning,suchasadditionalterminalsontheislandofRügen.See“BundestagstimmtfürBauvonLNG-TerminalsaufRügen“,ZeitOnline,July7,2023:

https://www.zeit.de/

wirtschaft/2023-07/fluessigerdgas-lng-terminal-ruegen-mukran-bundestag-zustimmung

(accessedJuly10,2023).

7RWEschlie?tLNG-VertragmitUS-Unternehmen,”Tagesschau,December28,2022:

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/lng-fluessigerdgas-rwe-

usa-101.htmlhttps://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/lng-fluessigerdgas-rwe-usa-101.html

(accessedJune27,2023).InternationalEnergyAgency,“HowtoavoidgasshortagesintheEuropeanUnionin2023,“December2022:

/assets/96ce64c5-1061-4e0c-998d-

fd679990653b/HowtoAvoidGasShortagesintheEuropeanUnionin2023

.pdf(accessedJuly7,2023).

8InternationalEnergyAgency,“HowtoavoidgasshortagesintheEuropeanUnionin2023,“December2022:

/

assets/96ce64c5-1061-4e0c-998d-fd679990653b/HowtoAvoidGasShortagesintheEuropeanUnionin2023.pdf

(accessedJuly7,2023).

9ClimateActionTracker,“Massivegasexpansionrisksovertakingpositiveclimatepolicies,”November10,2022:

/publications/massive-gas-expansion-risks-overtaking-positive-climate-policies

(lastaccessedJune12,2023).

No.22|July20233

POLICYBRIEFEmissionsMitigationasaNationalSecurityInvestment

Germanyalsoincreasedtheuseofemissions-in-tensivecoalpowertomakeupfornear-termsupplyshortages.In2022,theshareofcoalintheelec-tricitymixincreasedby8.4percent,uptoaboutone-thirdofit,comparedtothepreviousyear.10Be-sidesputtingemissionsreductiontargetsatrisk,Germany’sdifferentmeasuresalsocreateaforeignpolicydilemmaforit.Thecountry’scontinueduseofcoalandotherfossilfuelssignificantlyweakensitslegitimacywhencallingonothercountriestophaseoutfossilfuels.

Beyondthephasingoutoffossilfuels,otherareasofthedomesticenergytransitionarealsolagging.Forexample,thebuildupofrenewableenergiesandtheelectrificationofkeysectors,particularlythebuild-ingsandindustrysector,arenotproceedingfastenoughtomeetGermany’snationalnet-zerogoalssetfor2045.11

Whilenewwarmingrecordsareset,withundeniablehumansecurityimplications,allfactorspointtotheconclusionthatpolicychangesaretooslowandin-crementaltoavoidcatastrophicclimateimpacts.12

Germany’snationallyincoherentgovernanceofthecommonsalsocreatesaforeignpolicydilemma:Thecontinueduseofcoalandotherfossilfuelssignifi-cantlyweakensitslegitimacywhencallingonothercountriestophaseoutfossilfuels.

Thus,theZeitenwendecurrentlyfocusesonmanag-ingimmediategeopoliticalrisksanddoesnotfullyaddresslonger-termclimateconsiderationsandthediplomaticsetbacksthataffectrelationswithgov-ernmentsindevelopingcountriesonwhichGermanydependsforresourceimportsforthegreentransi-tion.AsGermany,Europe’slargestemitterofgreen-housegases(GHG),hasprioritizeditsenergysupplyandmaintainingthestatusquooveritscommit-mentstolowertheburdenitputsonimpoverishedcommunitiesattheforefrontoftheclimatecrisis.Whilethis“Germany-first”policymaybedeemedac-ceptableinanacutecrisis,thecontractualandin-

frastructuralpathdependencieshastilycreatedareharminginternationalclimatecooperation.Inpartic-ular,countriesmarkedbysevereenergypovertymaybecomemorereluctanttoadjusttheirdevelopmentpathwaytomeetclimatetargets.

TheneedtodiversifyandavoiddependenciesisGermany’sguidingprincipleforaction.Thiscanalsobeobservedinotherpolicyfields,suchasthesupplyofcriticalrawmaterialsortheproductionandim-portofhigh-techproducts.Renewableenergyandindustrialtransformationtowardclimateneutrali-tyareinstrumentalforthecountry’senergysecurityandindependence,forstrengtheningitsgeopoliti-calresilience,andforreducingemissions.However,anapproachthatreconcilesshort-termgeopoliti-calconsiderationswithlong-termclimategoalshasbeenhardtorealizeinthefaceoftheenergycrisis.

AddressingthePlanetaryCrisis

AlargerpolicyshiftinthewakeofthereleaseofGermany’sNationalSecurityStrategyinJune2023shouldtakegeopoliticalandclimaterisksalikein-toaccounttobedecisive.Scientificevidenceshowsincreasingclimaticthreatstohumanwellbeing,prosperity,andsecurity.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)hasassessedwithhighconfidencethatalreadytoday“(s)ometrop-ical,coastal,polarandmountainecosystemshavereachedhardadaptationlimits.”13Globalrisksarebecomingmoreacuteastippingpointsnear,po-tentiallyleadingtorapidandincreasinglyirrevers-iblechanges.14CertainnaturalsystemssuchastheGreenlandicesheetmaybereachingtheirtippingpointalreadybelow2°Cglobalwarming,condemn-ingfuturegenerationstoexperienceseveralme-tersofsea-levelrise.15Climatechangeandotheranthropogenicpressuresthusputatrisktherel-ativeearthsystemstabilitythathasbeentheba-sisforhumandevelopmentandprosperityoverthepast12,000years.Arecentassessmentquantifiestheearthsystemboundarieswithregardtoclimateandairpollution,fertilizers,biodiversity,andfresh-water,andconcludesthatmultipleboundarieshave

10DESTATISStatistischesBundesamt,“Stromerzeugung2022:EinDrittelausKohle,einViertelausWindkraft,”P(pán)ressemitteilungNr.090,March9,2023:

https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2023/03/PD23_090_43312.html

(accessedJune29,2023).

11TheTransformationTracker,atooloftheCopernicusProjectAriadne,providesastructuredassessmentofthestateofGermany’senergytransitioninvariouscategories.SeeTransformationTracker,Ariadne-Projekt:

https://tracker.ariadneprojekt.de

(accessedJune29,2023).

12ClimateR,ClimateChangeInstitute,UniversityofMaine,“Daily2-meterAirTemperature,”lastupdatedJuly8,2023:

/clim/t2_daily

(accessedJuly10,2023).

13IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,“ClimateChange2023.SynthesisReport.SummaryforPolicymakers,”March2023,para.A.3.5:

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf

(accessedJune12,2023).

14TimothyM.Lentonetal.,“Climatetippingpoints–tooriskytobetagainst,”Nature575,November28,2019,pp.592–595:

/articles/d41586-019-03595-0

(accessedJuly6,2022).

15DavidI.ArmstrongMcKayetal.,“Exceeding1.5°Cglobalwarmingmaytriggermultipleclimatetippingpoints,”Science377,Issue6611,September9,2022:

/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950

(accessedJune12,2023).

4No.22|July2023

EmissionsMitigationasaNationalSecurityInvestment

POLICYBRIEF

beencrossed.16Thismeansthathumanity’slife-sup-portsystemsareindanger.Vulnerablepopulations(especiallyintheGlobalSouth)arealreadyacute-lyaffectedbyclimateimpactsandbiodiversityde-crease,endangeringhumansecurity,andleadingtolossesanddamages.17ImpactsinEuropearealsoin-creasinglyputtingatriskthepopulation’ssecurityandhealth.Forinstance,arecentstudyestimatesthatmorethan61,000heat-relateddeathsoccurredinEuropeduringthesummerof2022.18

Existinggovernance

structuresprovide

aframework

forswiftemissions

mitigation

Theserecentriskassessmentsreaffirmtheim-portanceofthetargetsofthe2015ParisAgree-ment,whichobligesstatestolimitglobalwarmingtowellbelow2°C,andideallytobelow1.5°C.Exist-inggovernancestructuresprovideaframeworkforswiftemissionsmitigationbyGermany.First,theEUGreenDeallegislationsetsclearstepsthatmem-berstatesshouldtaketoreduceemissions.Second,Germanyislegallyobligedtoswiftlyphaseoutfos-silfuels.TheFederalClimateProtectionLawof2019originallymandatedannualemissionsreductionsandmonitoringuntil2030.Itbecamemorestrin-gentaftertheFederalConstitutionalCourtruledin2021thatitwaspartiallyunconstitutional.Thecourtfoundthatthelaw’smedium-termtargetswerein-

sufficientandshiftedtheburdenofclimatemitiga-tiontothefuture,thusinfringingonthefreedomoffuturegenerations.19Therevisedlawfrom2021tar-getsemissionsreductionsof65percentby2030and88percentby2040comparedto1990levels,andnet-zeroemissionsby2045.

Germany’strackrecordonemissionsmitigationun-derminesthecredibilityofthesetargets.Itonlyachieveditstargetfor2020duetotheeconomicfalloutoftheCOVID-19pandemic,20andthesub-sequent2021targetwasmissedagain.TheFederalEnvironmentAgencyprojectsthatGermanyissettomissitslong-termmitigationtargets.21

Deliveringonemissionreductionsisnotjustalegalobligation;italsoservesGermany’sforeignpolicyin-terests.First,continuedandaccelerateddomesticemissionsmitigationisaprerequisiteforthecoun-trytobeabletopromoteclimateprotectionin-ternationally.Germany’sdecisiontoprolongandexpanditsfossilfuelusebecauseoftheenergycri-sismayhaveweakeneditslong-termcredibilityandchallengeditsoften-claimedroleasaleaderontheenergytransition.

Second,climatechangeshouldbeseenasacross-cuttingriskfactorthatincreasinglyaffectssecuritypolicy,geopolitics,andeconomicsecurity.Accord-ingtotheIPCC,“Roughlyhalfoftheworld’spopula-tioncurrentlyexperienceseverewaterscarcityforatleastpartoftheyearduetoacombinationofcli-maticandnon-climaticdrivers.”22Foodinsecurityisalsoexacerbatedbyclimateimpactsinmanyre-gions,includingEurope,andisidentifiedasafieldofactioninGermany’sNationalSecurityStrategy.Cli-mate-relatedchangesinweatherpatternsampli-fytheriskofheatanddroughtconditionsthatmayleadtocropfailuresinmajorbreadbasketregions.23Sucheventswillincreasinglyoccursimultaneously

16JohanRockstr?metal.,“SafeandjustEarthsystemboundaries,”Nature,May31,2023:

/articles/s41586-023-06083-8

(accessedJune29,2023).

17Foracloserexaminationofthesesecuritydimensionsofclimatechangeundertheterms“planetarysecurity”and“climateimpacts,”see

TimBoschandKiraVinke,“IntegratingClimateinGermany’sNationalSecurityStrategy,”DGAPPolicyBriefNo.27/2022,September2022,pp.2-4:

/system/files/article_pdfs/DGAP-Policy-Brief-2022-27-EN_3.pdf

(accessedJune27,2023).

18JoanBallesteretal.,“Heat-relatedmortalityinEuropeduringthesummerof2022,”NatureMedicine,July10,2023:

/articles/s41591-023-02419-z

(accessedJuly11,2023).

19DanaSchirwon,“TheGermanFederalConstitutionalCourt’sRevolutionaryClimateRuling,”DGAPOnlineCommentary,April20,2022:

/en/research/publications/german-federal-constitutional-courts-revolutionary-climate-ruling

(accessedJune12,2023).

20BundesministeriumfürUmwelt,Naturschutz,nukleareSicherheitundVerbraucherschutz,“Treibhausgasemissionensinken2020um8,7Prozent,”March16,2021:

https://www.bmuv.de/pressemitteilung/treibhausgasemissionen-sinken-2020-um-87-prozent

(accessedJune12,2023).

21Umweltbundesamt,“Projektionsberichte(integrierteEnergie-undTHG-Projektionen,”December22,2022:

https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/klima-energie/klimaschutz-energiepolitik-in-deutschland/szenarien-fuer-die-

klimaschutz-energiepolitik/integrierte-energie-treibhausgasprojektionen#Berichterstattung

(accessedJune12,2023).

22IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,“ClimateChange2023.SynthesisReport.SummaryforPolicymakers,”March2023,para.A.2.4:

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf

(accessedJune12,2023).

23SeealsoKaiKornhuberetal.,“AmplifiedRossbywavesenhanceriskofconcurrentheatwavesinmajorbreadbasketregions,”NatureClimateChange10,December9,2019,pp.48-53:

/articles/s41558-019-0637-z

(accessedJune12,2023).

No.22|July20235

POLICYBRIEFEmissionsMitigationasaNationalSecurityInvestment

Figure1–Humanity’sMostPressingCommonSecurityRisk–

SurpassingofEarthSystemBoundaries

Fertilizers

AEROSOL

POLLUTANTS*

CLIMATE

PHOSPHORUS

NATURALECOSYSTEMS

NITROGEN

WORKINGLANDSCAPES**

GROUNDWATER

SURFACE

WATER

Freshwater

SAFE&JUSTSPACE

DANGERZONE

LESSERGREATER

SAFE&JUSTBOUNDARY

SAFEBOUNDARY

JUSTBOUNDARY

Biodiversity

ThisgraphshowspartsoftheEarthSystemthatarevitalfortheresilienceandstabilityofourplanetaswellasthelifeofhumansthatdependonit(Rockstr?metal.2022,102).Buildingonpriorwork(seeSteffenetal.2015),scientistsidentifiedboundariestothesesystems,thetransgressionofwhichwouldputtheplanet’sresilienceatriskandexposehumanstosignificantharm.Theframeworkdistinguishesbetween“safe”and“just”boundaries.“Safe”boundariespertaintothepreservationofthefunctioningoftheEarthSys-temandtheextenttowhichitsupportsthesurvivalofhumansandotherlivingorganisms.“Just”boundariesconsiderthecircum-stancesrequiredtoavertsignificantharmtopeople.Thejusticeassessmentincludesconsiderationsof1)interspeciesjusticeandEarthSystemstability,2)intergenerationaljustice,and3)intragenerationaljustice(Rockstr?metal.2022,103).Whileinmostcasesthesafeandjustboundariesarealigned,justiceconsiderationsputadditionalconstraintsontheclimateandaerosolpollutantsdi-mensions.Overall,sevenoutoftheeightEarthSystemboundarieshavebeentransgressed(Ibid.).

*Thejustboundaryhasbeenbreachedinmanyplaceslocally,butisstilltobeassessedatthegloballevel|**Urban,forest,andagriculturalareas|Sources:Globa