日常消費行業(yè)零研月報：3月多數(shù)品類商超渠道銷售額同比承壓-20210502-中金正文版

證券研究報告2021年

5月

2日日常消費零研月報：3月多數(shù)品類商超渠道銷售額同比承壓行業(yè)動態(tài)行業(yè)近況由于去年同期疫情阻塞部分渠道，居民日常消費轉(zhuǎn)向商超渠道，商超渠道銷售額基數(shù)較高，今年

3月多數(shù)品類商超渠道銷售額同比承壓。伴隨疫情有效控制，渠道多元化（如餐飲渠道復(fù)蘇、社區(qū)團購崛起等），我們提示商超渠道增速并不能完全反映行業(yè)整體增速情況。3月符合消費升級趨勢的品類例如高端白酒、高端啤酒、鮮奶、高端白奶、高端醬油等品類的商超銷售額表現(xiàn)好于其他品類。評論酒類：3月白酒收入同比增速較高（+42.9%），主因均價同比提升，高端表現(xiàn)好于行業(yè)整體。3月啤酒收入同比跌

26.9%，烏蘇/喜力同比+18%/+4%，表現(xiàn)亮眼，啤酒消費分級態(tài)勢明顯，華潤旗下雪花/普通勇闖銷售額同比-52%/-37%。3月

Rio預(yù)調(diào)酒收入同比跌

17%，新三度微醺同增

0.9%。我們認(rèn)為

3月白酒動銷積極，主因節(jié)后聚飲場景恢復(fù)，部分宴席從

2-3Q提前至

1Q，次高端存補償性需求；白滬深300中金日常消費17215413611810082酒均價提升幅度較大，反映出消費升級提速，千元價格帶將成為今年行業(yè)亮點。乳制品：

3月乳制品收入同比轉(zhuǎn)跌，主要因為

2月春節(jié)銷售旺季，3月銷售受到影響，1Q21奶粉/液態(tài)奶/酸奶銷售額分別同比-5.9%/+6.6%/-13%。1Q21伊利/蒙牛/光明液態(tài)奶銷售額分別同比+7.7%/+13.1%/+20.3%，并且伊利/蒙牛均價

ASP分別同比+12.2%/+8.3%，由此可見雙龍頭在液態(tài)奶（以純奶為主）促銷明顯趨緩。1Q21金典/特侖蘇銷售額同比+20.3%/+24.3%，安慕希/純甄/莫斯利安銷售額分別同比-5.8%/+2.8%/-16.6%。我們認(rèn)為

2021年仍為奶價上漲的一年，純奶類產(chǎn)品的競爭促銷將減弱，并且產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)性升級將延續(xù)。2019-112020-022020-052020-072020-10目標(biāo)P/E(x)股票名稱評級價格2021E2022E貴州茅臺-A跑贏行業(yè)2739.0045.787.844.267.544.728.929.452.340.871.443.329.744.98.740.066.8調(diào)味品：3月醬油行業(yè)收入同比跌幅擴大至

29%，其中千禾收入同比-4.2%，持續(xù)

山西汾酒-A優(yōu)于行業(yè)。3月醋行業(yè)收入同比跌幅擴大至

28%。3月復(fù)合調(diào)味品行業(yè)收入同比

五糧液-A轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)（-42%）。我們認(rèn)為，調(diào)味品增長承壓主要由于去年同期消費者囤貨高基數(shù)

重慶啤酒-A跑贏行業(yè)

411.00跑贏行業(yè)

337.00跑贏行業(yè)

170.00111.7038.050.9影響，此外餐飲渠道逐漸恢復(fù)及線上與社區(qū)團購等渠道分流。-A青島啤酒39.1跑贏行業(yè)跑贏行業(yè)跑贏行業(yè)跑贏行業(yè)跑贏行業(yè)跑贏行業(yè)跑贏行業(yè)跑贏行業(yè)跑贏行業(yè)伊利-A46.3665.00100.0050.80279.4039.6084.0033.5026.0食品：3月多數(shù)子品類同比增速承壓。3月肉制品銷售額同比-29%。3月速凍米面行業(yè)銷售額同比跌幅擴大至

51%。3月速凍火鍋料行業(yè)收入同比-25.5%，其中安井食品同比+17%，表現(xiàn)明顯優(yōu)于行業(yè)。3月方便食品行業(yè)銷售額同比跌幅擴大至

24%，方便面/自熱品類/非自熱品類銷售額同比-24%/-30%/+312%。3月面包行業(yè)收入同比跌

14%，達利美焙辰同比+7.6%，表現(xiàn)亮眼。3月堅果炒貨銷售額同比-32%，洽洽每日堅果同比+70%，表現(xiàn)遠好于行業(yè)。我們認(rèn)為，3月份多數(shù)食品品類增速承壓主因高基數(shù)；新興高增賽道如沖泡食品仍實現(xiàn)強勁增長。洽洽食品-A絕味食品-A涪陵榨菜-A安井食品-A巴比食品-A青島啤酒股份-H百威亞太-H26.041.431.454.136.526.036.4飲料：3月軟飲料各品類銷售額同比均有所下滑，包裝水/茶飲料/碳酸飲料/果汁

萬洲國際-H飲料銷售額分別-2.6%/-3.6%/-13.7%/-18.1%，1Q21包裝水/茶飲料/碳酸飲料/果汁

周黑鴨-H飲料銷售額分別-13.0%/+5.5%/+0.0%/-4.2%，較前

3季度均有改善，顯示出疫情

康師傅控股-H后期飲料行業(yè)逐漸復(fù)蘇。3月康師傅的包裝水、果汁產(chǎn)品銷售額同比表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于行

農(nóng)夫山泉-H跑贏行業(yè)

9.50跑贏行業(yè)

11.00跑贏行業(yè)

18.20跑贏行業(yè)

47.00110.008.535.218.161.158.223.516.552.9業(yè)整體，農(nóng)夫山泉與統(tǒng)一的茶飲料、果汁產(chǎn)品銷售額同比表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于行業(yè)整體。-H頤海國際45.0跑贏行業(yè)中金一級行業(yè)日常消費估值與建議我們結(jié)合商超及其他渠道銷售，推薦組合為

A

股酒類：貴州茅臺、山西汾酒、五糧液、重慶啤酒、青島啤酒；A

股非酒：伊利股份、洽洽食品、絕味食品、涪陵榨菜、安井食品、巴比食品；H

股：青島啤酒股份、百威亞太、萬洲國際、周黑鴨、康師傅控股、農(nóng)夫山泉、頤海國際。資料來源：萬得資訊、彭博資訊、中金公司研究部風(fēng)險部分品類商超渠道代表性有限（本套監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計方法和渠道代表性參見報告附錄

1~2）。請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律聲明中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日目錄評論完整版

...........................................................................................................................................................................4乳制品...................................................................................................................................................................................6速凍米面食品........................................................................................................................................................................9速凍火鍋料食品..................................................................................................................................................................10肉制品.................................................................................................................................................................................11醬油.....................................................................................................................................................................................12復(fù)合調(diào)味品

.........................................................................................................................................................................13白酒.....................................................................................................................................................................................14啤酒.....................................................................................................................................................................................16方便食品

.............................................................................................................................................................................17包裝水.................................................................................................................................................................................18茶飲料.................................................................................................................................................................................19果汁飲料

.............................................................................................................................................................................20碳酸飲料

.............................................................................................................................................................................21堅果炒貨

.............................................................................................................................................................................22面包.....................................................................................................................................................................................23附錄

1：數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計方法說明................................................................................................................................................24數(shù)據(jù)范圍

................................................................................................................................................................................24監(jiān)測樣本和抽樣原理

............................................................................................................................................................24全國數(shù)據(jù)推算方法

................................................................................................................................................................24圖表圖表

1:酒類可比公司估值表......................................................................................................................................................5圖表

2:非酒可比公司估值表......................................................................................................................................................6圖表

3:3月行業(yè)銷售額同比下滑，酸奶降幅大于行業(yè)，液態(tài)奶和奶粉跌幅小于行業(yè).........................................................7圖表

4:3月各品牌表現(xiàn)略有分化，輝山收入同比增長，低溫鮮奶和奶酪增速亮眼.............................................................7圖表

5:2021年

1-3月奶粉品牌中伊利、飛鶴、雅士利、圣元、菲仕蘭、君樂寶、澳優(yōu)市占率同比上升（銷售額）....8圖表

6:3月行業(yè)銷售額受高基數(shù)影響增速承壓，速凍湯圓和面食表現(xiàn)好于行業(yè)整體.........................................................9圖表

7:3月各品牌因高基數(shù)表現(xiàn)承壓，三全、龍鳳表現(xiàn)好于行業(yè)整體.................................................................................9圖表

8:2021年

1-3月思念、三全市占率同比提升（銷售額）...............................................................................................9圖表

9:3月行業(yè)銷售額同比下滑，魚制品收入降幅小于行業(yè)

..............................................................................................10圖表

10:3月三全、安井銷售額在高收入基數(shù)下繼續(xù)保持高增長

........................................................................................10圖表

11:2021年

1-3月安井、海霸王、三全市占率同比提升（銷售額）

...........................................................................10圖表

12:3月行業(yè)高基數(shù)下銷售額同比雙位數(shù)下滑，各品牌增長壓力均較大.....................................................................11圖表

13:2021年

1-3月雙匯、雨潤市占率同比下降（銷售額）...........................................................................................11圖表

14:3月行業(yè)銷售額高基數(shù)下增長壓力較大，千禾收入轉(zhuǎn)跌

........................................................................................12圖表

15:2021年

1-3月千禾市占率同比提升（銷售額）.......................................................................................................12圖表

16:3月行業(yè)銷售額高基數(shù)下增長壓力較大，海底撈表現(xiàn)好于行業(yè)整體.....................................................................13圖表

17:2021年

1-3月海底撈市占率同比提升（銷售額）...................................................................................................13圖表

18:3月行業(yè)銷售額增速較高，主要高端產(chǎn)品收入增速均亮眼

....................................................................................14圖表

19:3月各品牌銷售額表現(xiàn)分化，水井坊、今世緣、五糧液、劍南春、洋河、郎酒、口子窖、汾酒、瀘州老窖、茅臺表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于行業(yè)整體..................................................................................................................................................................14圖表

20:2021年

1-3月五糧液、洋河、劍南春、郎酒、口子窖、水井坊市占率同比提升（銷售額）............................15圖表

21:3月行業(yè)銷售額同比轉(zhuǎn)跌，各品牌增速分化明顯，惠泉、烏蘇、喜力表現(xiàn)亮眼.................................................16請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律聲明2中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日圖表

22:2021年

1-3月青島、百威、燕京、嘉士伯、喜力、珠江市占率同比提升（銷售額）

.......................................16圖表

23:3月行業(yè)銷售額高基數(shù)下同比下滑，非自熱品類（米飯、面食等）銷售額延續(xù)高增長......................................17圖表

24:3月自嗨鍋銷售額跌幅低于行業(yè)................................................................................................................................17圖表

25:2021年

1-3月海底撈、自嗨鍋市占率同比提升（銷售額）

...................................................................................17圖表

26:3月行業(yè)銷售額同比跌幅收窄，康師傅、景田、怡寶表現(xiàn)好于行業(yè)平均.............................................................18圖表

27:2021年

1-3月景田、康師傅、怡寶市占率同比提升（銷售額）

...........................................................................18圖表

28:3月行業(yè)銷售額同比微跌，農(nóng)夫山泉和統(tǒng)一驅(qū)動行業(yè)復(fù)蘇

....................................................................................19圖表

29:2021年

1-3月王老吉、加多寶市占率同比提升，康師傅、統(tǒng)一、農(nóng)夫山泉、香飄飄、達利市占率同比下滑（銷售額）..........................................................................................................................................................................................19圖表

30：3月行業(yè)銷售額同比轉(zhuǎn)跌..........................................................................................................................................20圖表

31:3月農(nóng)夫山泉、百事果繽紛、統(tǒng)一、可口可樂、康師傅表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于行業(yè).................................................................20圖表

32:2021年

1-3月農(nóng)夫山泉、可口可樂、康師傅、統(tǒng)一、百事果繽紛市占率同比提升，匯源、味全市占率同比下降（銷售額）..............................................................................................................................................................................20圖表

33:3月行業(yè)銷售額同比轉(zhuǎn)跌，百事可樂和可口可樂跌幅均大于平均.........................................................................21圖表

34:2021年

1-3月可口可樂和百事可樂市占率均同比下降（銷售額）

.......................................................................21圖表

35:3月行業(yè)銷售額同比跌幅收窄，洽洽每日堅果表現(xiàn)亮眼

.........................................................................................22圖表

36:2021年

1-3月洽洽每日堅果、三只松鼠、沃隆和百草味市占率同比提升，洽洽瓜子市占率同比下滑（銷售額）......................................................................................................................................................................................................22圖表

37:3月行業(yè)銷售額高基數(shù)下同比下滑，達利美焙辰表現(xiàn)亮眼，桃李表現(xiàn)好于行業(yè).................................................23圖表

38:2021年

1-3月桃李、達利美焙辰市占率同比提升，達利達利園、曼可頓、賓堡市占率同比下降（銷售額）

23圖表

39:抽樣方法舉例（以北京為例）..................................................................................................................................24請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律聲明3rQsRqOvMqRpPqPpMrOrNmN6M8Q7NnPoOoMnMiNpPrMfQrRtOaQpNtQvPqNtRvPoNtO中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日評論完整版由于去年同期疫情阻塞部分渠道，居民日常消費轉(zhuǎn)向商超渠道，商超渠道銷售額基數(shù)較高，今年

3

月多數(shù)品類商超渠道銷售額同比承壓。伴隨疫情有效控制，渠道多元化（如餐飲渠道復(fù)蘇、社區(qū)團購崛起等），我們提示商超渠道增速并不能完全反映行業(yè)整體增速情況。3

月符合消費升級趨勢的品類例如高端白酒、高端啤酒、鮮奶、高端白奶、高端醬油等品類的商超銷售額表現(xiàn)好于其他品類。酒類：3

月白酒收入同比增速較高（+42.9%），主因均價同比提升，高端表現(xiàn)好于行業(yè)整體，青花汾酒、國窖

1573、洋河夢之藍、五糧液增速表現(xiàn)亮眼；各品牌銷售額表現(xiàn)分化，其中水井坊、今世緣、五糧液、劍南春、洋河、郎酒、口子窖、汾酒、瀘州老窖、茅臺表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于行業(yè)整體。3

月啤酒收入同比跌

26.9%，各品牌表現(xiàn)分化明顯，烏蘇/喜力同比+18%/+4%，表現(xiàn)亮眼；同時啤酒消費分級態(tài)勢明顯，華潤旗下雪花/普通勇闖銷售額同比-52%/-37%，跌幅大于大多數(shù)品牌。預(yù)調(diào)酒方面，3

月

Rio

預(yù)調(diào)酒收入同比跌

17%，新三度微醺同增

0.9%。我們認(rèn)為，3

月白酒動銷積極，主因節(jié)后聚飲消費場景恢復(fù)，加上部分宴席從二三季度提前至一季度，次高端存在補償性需求；白酒均價提升幅度較大，反映出消費升級提速，千元價格帶將成為今年行業(yè)亮點。乳制品：3

月乳制品收入同比轉(zhuǎn)跌，主要因為

2

月春節(jié)銷售旺季，3

月銷售受到影響，其中

3

月奶粉/液態(tài)奶/酸奶銷售額分別同比-9.6%/-6.1%/-22.2%。1Q21

奶粉/液態(tài)奶/酸奶銷售額分別同比-5.9%/+6.6%/-13%，可見液態(tài)奶行業(yè)仍保持高個位數(shù)的增長。1Q21

伊利/蒙牛

/

光

明

液

態(tài)

奶

銷

售

額

分

別

同

比

+7.7%/+13.1%/+20.3%

，

并

且

均

價

ASP

分

別

同

比+12.2%/+8.3%/-2.5%，由此可見伊利蒙牛均價均有抬升，主要由于部分純牛奶產(chǎn)品漲價及促銷減弱所致。1Q21

金典/特侖蘇銷售額同比+20.3%/+24.3%，安慕希/純甄/莫斯利安銷售額分別同比-5.8%/+2.8%/-16.6%。我們認(rèn)為

2021

年仍為奶價上漲的一年，純奶類產(chǎn)品的競爭促銷將減弱，并且產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)性升級將延續(xù)。調(diào)味品：3

月醬油行業(yè)收入同比跌幅擴大至

29%，其中千禾收入同比-4.2%，持續(xù)優(yōu)于行業(yè)，海天/廚邦收入同比-31%/-35%。3

月醋行業(yè)收入同比跌幅擴大至

28%，恒順收入同比-31%。3

月復(fù)合調(diào)味品行業(yè)收入同比轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)（-42%），海底撈銷售額同比-42%，表現(xiàn)與行業(yè)持平，天味銷售額同比-49%，跌幅大于行業(yè)。我們認(rèn)為，調(diào)味品增長承壓主要由于去年同期消費者囤貨高基數(shù)影響，此外餐飲渠道逐漸恢復(fù)及線上與社區(qū)團購等渠道分流，使得調(diào)味品各子品類商超渠道增速呈現(xiàn)逐季放緩趨勢。食品：3

月多數(shù)子品類同比增速承壓。3

月肉制品銷售額同比轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)（-29%），雙匯銷售額同比-35%，跌幅大于行業(yè)，我們認(rèn)為主因去年同期學(xué)校等渠道受疫情影響，肉制品渠道轉(zhuǎn)向連鎖商超，致去年同期銷售額基數(shù)較高。3

月速凍米面行業(yè)銷售額同比跌幅擴大至51%，速凍湯圓表現(xiàn)（-48%）好于行業(yè)整體。3

月速凍火鍋料行業(yè)收入同比-25.5%，其中安井食品同比+17%，表現(xiàn)明顯優(yōu)于行業(yè)整體。3

月方便食品行業(yè)銷售額同比跌幅擴大至24%，康師傅、統(tǒng)一同比-24.2%/-23.7%，海底撈表現(xiàn)（-29.4%）弱于行業(yè)；方便面/自熱品類/非自熱品類銷售額同比-24%/-30%/+312%，我們認(rèn)為，伴隨頤海等頭部企業(yè)積極布局沖泡食品賽道，非自熱品類增長強勁。3

月面包行業(yè)收入同比跌

14%，達利美焙辰同比+7.6%，表現(xiàn)亮眼，桃李表現(xiàn)（-11.8%）好于行業(yè)。3

月堅果炒貨銷售額同比-32%，洽洽每日堅果同比+70%，表現(xiàn)遠好于行業(yè)。我們認(rèn)為，3

月份多數(shù)食品品類增速承壓，主要由于面臨高基數(shù)壓力；新興高成長賽道如沖泡食品仍實現(xiàn)強勁增長。飲料：3

月軟飲料各品類銷售額同比均有所下滑，包裝水/茶飲料/碳酸飲料/果汁飲料銷售額分別-2.6%/-3.6%/-13.7%/-18.1%，受益今年外出消費場景復(fù)蘇，包裝水銷售額跌幅收窄，而其他品類由于春節(jié)消費、去年基數(shù)等原因月度間分化及波動較明顯，1Q21

包裝水/茶飲料/碳酸飲料/果汁飲料銷售額分別-13.0%/+5.5%/+0.0%/-4.2%，較前

3

季度均有改善，顯示出疫情后期飲料行業(yè)逐漸復(fù)蘇。3

月康師傅的包裝水、果汁產(chǎn)品銷售額同比表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于行業(yè)整體，農(nóng)夫山泉與統(tǒng)一的茶飲料、果汁產(chǎn)品銷售額同比表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于行業(yè)整體。請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律聲明4中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日圖表

1:酒類可比公司估值表凈利潤（財報貨幣

百萬）2022E2020A/E2021E2022E收盤價

市值（百04-30萬元）市盈率凈資產(chǎn)收益率（%）2022E2020A/E2021E股票代碼公司名稱財報貨幣交易貨幣2020A/E2021E白酒600519.SH貴州茅臺*000858.SZ五糧液*000568.SZ瀘州老窖*600809.SH山西汾酒*600702.SH舍得酒業(yè)600779.SH水井坊*000860.SZ順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)*002304.SZ洋河股份*603589.SH口子窖*603369.SH今世緣*600559.SH老白干酒*000799.SZ酒鬼酒*中值CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY2006.782,520,913285.001,106,25854.055.562.3118.948.968.842.838.826.143.150.4135.652.245.744.249.787.855.455.827.433.822.734.036.391.544.940.038.040.466.840.246.720.428.920.427.125.165.339.031.424.928.335.124.634.311.019.719.620.111.718.122.431.226.929.936.717.539.815.320.720.622.114.722.722.430.126.931.037.219.842.217.622.120.623.618.826.425.046,69719,9316,0063,00758155,21925,0487,5304,07277262,98129,0779,2665,3521,0631,0701,80210,0551,8322,473802255.58410.25127.05102.3049.65374,361357,54442,75849,96736,829290,09537,34467,02820,13564,57065,7997278968601,3448,5901,6421,972554192.5062.247,4771,4291,55540053.4322.44198.724767059891,4921,8072,153啤酒01876.HK百威亞太*600600.SH青島啤酒*00168.HK青島啤酒股份*00291.HK華潤啤酒*600132.SH重慶啤酒*000729.SZ燕京啤酒*002461.SZ珠江啤酒*603076.SH樂惠國際中值USDCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYHKDCNYHKDHKDCNYCNYCNYCNY24.5591.0170.5062.75157.387.39271,025103,040103,024169,69876,16720,82924,2145,78381.656.436.881.871.5105.842.550.264.044.944.729.748.267.562.233.9N.M.44.936.439.126.039.150.956.028.4N.M.39.15.011.111.110.271.11.58.412.912.916.1243.82.59.613.613.617.9285.32.75142,2012,2012,0941,0651979282,7772,7773,6261,1293351,1463,1753,1754,4721,49637210.9467.006.57.88.856971485213.110.7n.a.n.a.106n.a.n.a.89,59612.913.68171,1291,496其他酒類600059.SH古越龍山*601579.SH會稽山*000869.SZ張裕

A*002568.SZ百潤股份*中值CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY11.9911.2536.95124.5210,9295,59568.719.453.8123.661.255.436.128.295.945.732.137.521.876.134.83.38.94.14.56.74.314128947152438017515589767542530214919,76166,72415,3454.68.610.530.28.61,16185124.36.727.36.5577注：標(biāo)*公司為中金覆蓋，采用中金預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)；其余使用市場一致預(yù)期資料來源：萬得資訊、彭博資訊、公司公告、中金公司研究部請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律聲明5中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日圖表

2:非酒可比公司估值表凈利潤股票代碼財報貨

交易貨

收盤價

市值（百市盈率凈資產(chǎn)收益率（%）公司名稱（財報貨幣

百萬）2020A/E2021E2022E2020A/E2021E2022E2020A/E2021E2022E幣幣04-30萬元）乳制品600887.SH伊利股份*600597.SH光明乳業(yè)*中值CNYCNYCNYCNY40.95249,08335.234.935.028.931.330.126.027.927.025.010.117.626.810.418.626.710.818.77,0786088,6266769,57375917.3021,184135,1343,8434,6515,166肉制品000895.SZ雙匯發(fā)展*00288.HK萬洲國際*中值CNYUSDCNYHKD36.64126,94520.315.618.019.28.717.98.531.18.928.714.121.431.013.422.26,2568286,6281,4734,0517,1071,5184,3136.7983,463105,20413.913.220.03,542日常調(diào)味品603288.SH海天味業(yè)*600872.SH中炬高新*603027.SH千禾味業(yè)600305.SH恒順醋業(yè)*中值CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY169.50549,25585.841.8124.257.371.572.737.764.451.357.860.830.849.845.747.734.920.89.734.120.314.914.117.633.722.317.014.719.66,4038902063156027,5599873283526699,0391,20743646.6832.9017.9837,18721,92418,03329,55613.517.2394822復(fù)合調(diào)味料01579.HK頤海國際*603317.SH天味食品*603755.SH日辰股份中值CNYCNYCNYHKDCNYCNY75.7044.0062.4566,06327,7406,15875.376.276.276.258.264.452.358.245.053.139.345.030.013.1n.a.29.311.117.017.027.012.519.919.9885364811,1714311,51252311815727,74021.5364431523其他調(diào)味品600298.SH安琪酵母*002507.SZ涪陵榨菜*300908.SZ仲景食品中值CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY58.7239.9571.2348,39031,5357,13135.340.642.940.631.440.843.040.827.231.434.631.425.124.713.324.723.914.210.214.223.212.811.412.81,3727771,5407721,7791,00420612816631,5357777721,004速凍食品002216.SZ三全食品*603345.SH安井食品*605338.SH巴比食品*中值CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY19.9015,90520.798.851.151.121.271.443.343.319.454.136.536.529.418.814.918.822.420.811.820.820.123.112.120.17686041756047518352077518201,102246252.0061,59536.168,96815,905820休閑食品603719.SH良品鋪子*002557.SZ洽洽食品*300783.SZ三只松鼠*603866.SH桃李面包*中值CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY51.4153.9554.2549.2520,61527,35321,75433,49824,55360.034.072.237.949.044.629.455.135.440.040.526.045.131.035.819.620.515.120.620.120.421.017.619.019.719.421.518.820.519.93448053018835744629293959456965091,0534831,079781鹵制品603517.SH絕味食品*01458.HK周黑鴨*中值CNYCNYCNYHKD86.319.5252,53118,91235,72274.9122.898.852.335.243.741.423.532.414.73.619.012.615.821.217.119.27011514261,0045391,2708079.27711,039保健品300146.SZ湯臣倍健*中值CNYCNY32.7051,69933.930.424.623.623.526.31,5241,7002,10151,69933.930.424.623.623.526.31,5241,7002,101嬰配奶粉06186.HK中國飛鶴01717.HK澳優(yōu)01112.HKH&H國際控股*中值CNYCNYCNYHKDHKDHKD22.15164,96022.115.813.415.822.312.711.712.718.210.811.211.248.321.919.321.936.221.819.621.834.022.917.522.97,4371,0041,1371,1377,4831,2751,3241,3249,1151,5611,3821,56111.5028.0016,45515,04416,455軟飲料09633.HK農(nóng)夫山泉*00506.HK中國食品*中值CNYCNYHKDHKD41.15385,78373.815.244.561.114.637.952.913.533.241.610.526.136.610.423.532.910.721.85,2774996,5105307,5155753.237,532196,6582,8883,5204,045H

股食品飲料綜合00322.HK康師傅控股*00220.HK統(tǒng)一企業(yè)中國*03799.HK達利食品*00151.HK中國旺旺*中值CNYCNYCNYCNYHKDHKDHKDHKD13.989.464.625.6365,55334,06252,73956,62954,68416.321.213.814.315.318.119.913.513.415.816.517.512.313.014.720.011.822.824.921.417.812.621.021.719.419.614.219.619.319.44,0621,6263,8494,3453,9553,7321,7624,0224,4693,8774,1002,0024,4244,6174,262注：標(biāo)*公司為中金覆蓋，采用中金預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)；其余使用市場一致預(yù)期資料來源：萬得資訊、彭博資訊、公司公告、中金公司研究部請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律聲明6中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日乳制品單位：銷售額

萬元，銷售量

噸，單價

元/公斤圖表

3:3月行業(yè)銷售額同比下滑，酸奶降幅大于行業(yè)，液態(tài)奶和奶粉跌幅小于行業(yè)歷史同比增速1歷史同比增速22021年3月全國商超乳制品銷售額當(dāng)月同比環(huán)比年初累計同比2021年2月2021年1月1Q214Q203Q202Q201Q204Q193Q192Q191Q191,461,904.1772,883.7-12.3%-17.8%-27.2%-24.2%5,033,555.72,593,169.5-2.0%-5.7%32.8%24.3%-20.1%-19.1%-2.0%-5.7%-1.2%-2.3%-1.8%-1.2%3.1%6.5%1.7%4.8%4.1%4.4%6.9%6.7%6.9%6.5%7.8%6.1%銷售量其中：奶粉銷售額銷售量單位均價196,404.212,583.8156.1-9.6%-5.3%-4.6%-7.5%-24.0%21.7%666,498.246,375.0143.7-5.9%4.6%-10.1%6.1%50.1%-29.3%-11.4%-13.9%2.9%-5.9%4.6%-10.1%-3.6%2.5%-6.0%-6.6%0.6%-7.2%-5.5%3.9%-9.0%-4.7%-8.0%3.5%-3.5%-2.2%-1.3%4.3%3.0%1.3%4.0%2.7%1.3%2.9%4.2%-1.2%液體奶銷售額銷售量單位均價699,515.8484,500.614.4-6.1%-14.1%9.4%-30.3%-24.0%-8.2%2,442,112.81,629,495.115.06.6%-0.3%6.9%49.5%31.1%14.1%-15.5%-13.0%-2.9%6.6%-0.3%6.9%7.1%3.7%3.3%7.4%5.4%1.8%15.4%15.8%-0.4%5.6%8.6%-2.8%9.8%8.7%1.1%12.1%11.0%0.9%9.9%9.4%0.5%9.2%6.7%2.4%酸奶銷售額銷售量單位均價506,698.5271,819.118.6-22.2%-24.4%2.9%-29.0%-24.6%-5.8%1,728,498.6904,240.219.1-13.0%-14.9%2.2%19.8%12.6%6.4%-31.3%-28.9%-3.3%-13.0%-12.2%-11.6%-14.9%-12.2%-10.3%-8.0%-5.8%-2.3%-2.4%-0.4%-2.0%-0.8%-1.7%1.0%1.6%1.4%0.2%3.9%3.0%0.9%7.1%5.3%1.7%2.2%0.0%-1.4%資料來源：全國連鎖店超市信息網(wǎng)，中金公司研究部圖表

4:3月各品牌表現(xiàn)略有分化，輝山收入同比增長，低溫鮮奶和奶酪增速亮眼歷史同比增速1歷史同比增速22021年3月當(dāng)月同比環(huán)比年初累計同比2021年2月2021年1月1Q214Q203Q202Q201Q204Q193Q192Q191Q19各公司全國商超銷售額綜合型企業(yè)：伊利405,902.2329,012.298,528.766,645.121,393.18,406.3-13.1%-11.9%-9.2%-13.0%-7.5%5.8%-36.4%-36.8%-24.3%-5.2%-8.3%-5.6%1,482,423.31,199,006.7335,546.4213,018.065,863.6-1.6%4.1%3.1%-8.4%-1.6%34.5%49.5%59.9%27.5%-6.4%7.9%-28.5%-22.9%-6.9%-5.9%-4.6%29.4%-1.6%4.1%3.1%-8.4%-1.4%1.2%0.3%0.2%-2.7%1.9%3.0%-0.4%1.3%12.5%6.3%4.7%-4.3%-2.5%5.9%4.0%8.8%7.5%3.6%11.1%8.6%6.3%6.0%3.9%11.9%8.3%27.7%1.2%3.4%8.7%7.4%27.3%5.3%3.1%7.9%4.7%8.7%40.4%8.7%5.5%蒙牛光明三元新希望輝山-1.6%-11.6%-10.5%34.5%27,135.892.2%47.2%23.5%0.4%-19.3%-21.4%-1.4%液態(tài)奶伊利207,608.8208,305.053,261.1-5.2%-4.3%0.2%-33.9%-37.4%-19.1%737,954.3758,238.3182,703.27.7%13.1%20.3%60.2%80.3%27.6%-19.9%-19.0%34.9%7.7%13.1%20.3%10.1%10.0%12.0%7.3%11.1%26.7%13.0%30.0%25.7%0.8%11.4%27.2%8.2%16.5%38.3%9.6%18.8%26.8%8.4%10.3%24.3%10.1%4.7%18.0%蒙牛光明植物蛋白達利—豆本豆伊利—植選維他豆奶1,784.9714.53,368.6-11.3%-40.9%-19.2%-28.4%-18.3%-13.0%5,940.22,420.010,766.7-15.3%-38.5%-14.4%25.8%-18.3%-3.7%-45.1%-49.9%-19.5%-15.3%3.5%-11.4%-25.3%-40.3%-28.3%-40.2%-32.6%-29.7%23.9%293.7%-38.5%-44.7%-52.0%-55.0%-56.4%-23.1%-14.3%-14.4%-11.1%-12.1%-6.9%-10.9%-15.6%-13.8%7.3%11.0%0.3%7.1%11.8%6.1%兒童奶旺旺-旺仔牛奶18,649.338,345.9-3.9%-59.3%-8.4%87,377.14.8%91.5%-42.8%-35.6%4.8%-6.7%-10.8%0.0%-3.5%4.8%7.1%13.2%-1.4%乳酸菌養(yǎng)樂多-32.3%112,132.9-27.0%-11.6%-27.0%-15.5%-16.5%-6.9%-7.8%奶粉企業(yè)伊利35,312.58,389.42,669.733,059.812,925.634,028.74,691.79,015.75,692.36,236.61,967.2-15.6%51.2%-52.7%-1.8%-29.2%-18.8%-20.9%-2.8%-30.5%-32.7%4.9%34.3%27.4%-20.1%34.9%39.8%4.4%136,332.632,720.69,169.3-5.8%56.1%-47.7%-5.2%-25.6%-13.5%-19.7%-17.5%19.2%-9.4%35.1%184.5%-44.8%-19.1%-39.0%3.2%-28.0%-40.9%31.2%-23.9%-16.1%-23.1%7.5%-45.6%3.0%-10.8%-21.2%-12.8%-7.8%2.8%-5.8%-10.6%-10.3%-7.0%-12.5%26.3%12.0%-9.5%35.2%-6.8%24.9%-0.4%9.8%7.3%-0.2%蒙牛—雅士利貝因美飛鶴56.1%22.3%25.6%-47.7%-34.2%-30.6%-28.8%-18.3%-13.0%-5.2%-3.8%-6.7%-0.5%2.6%5.3%-25.6%-15.2%-18.0%-19.6%-6.5%-14.2%-8.1%-11.9%-13.1%-10.3%-12.7%-7.4%-10.2%-21.3%17.4%0.9%97,022.340,457.6123,831.814,049.326,762.417,186.520,856.15,678.39.7%0.5%-0.5%14.1%-2.5%-4.9%美贊臣雀巢-13.5%-1.3%雅培-19.7%-11.0%-7.4%-15.6%-13.2%-23.9%-21.4%-13.1%-19.9%合生元君樂寶達能-17.5%19.2%-9.4%-4.6%-6.5%-19.7%-25.0%-7.0%83.7%39.6%-2.9%-7.0%80.4%30.9%26.6%6.0%77.7%70.3%-6.1%9.7%93.2%60.8%9.4%4.6%82.3%65.5%14.3%30.0%-4.1%19.8%16.6%3.7%49.6%5.4%2.7%64.7%13.6%3.1%2.5%18.8%0.0%-12.1%澳優(yōu)-4.6%-7.6%低溫鮮奶伊利金典鮮牛奶蒙牛每日鮮語光明優(yōu)倍685.23,341.516,005.47,464.61038.4%123.0%-16.1%581.3%-31.3%3.1%-7.3%11.4%2,615.39,365.657,220.321,599.31333.5%116.5%6.8%2051.1%156.4%-10.0%1128.9%78.0%56.4%1334%1387%-------116.5%6.8%29.5%-4.5%47.8%138.1%255.7%769.6%1162.4%3511.4%5.0%-26.0%-21.5%36.1%32.2%36.3%25.5%光明新鮮牧場1176.3%1816.3%2911.0%1176%6241%7186%19494%----奶酪百吉福妙可藍多蒙牛19,605.020,574.92,590.55,126.5-21.7%50.0%-22.5%198.6%-29.1%-24.8%-22.6%-21.4%67,572.667,289.38,422.1-6.2%70.4%-10.7%257.9%23.1%138.2%10.9%-17.1%35.6%-18.9%192.1%-6.2%70.4%-10.7%258%-0.7%59.8%21.3%200%2.0%72.5%45.3%145%17.3%19.9%11.0%7.3%7.5%18.3%96.7%104.4%176.1%241.1%407.8%740.1%72.6%244%60.9%34.6%21.3%21.5%6.5%369%伊利16,159.2420.1%480%1542%15904%3948%資料來源：全國連鎖店超市信息網(wǎng)，中金公司研究部請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律聲明7中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日圖表

5:2021年

1-3月奶粉品牌中伊利、飛鶴、雅士利、圣元、菲仕蘭、君樂寶、澳優(yōu)市占率同比上升（銷售額）25%20%15%10%5%0%年初累計數(shù)據(jù)上年同期累計資料來源：全國連鎖店超市信息網(wǎng)，中金公司研究部請仔細閱讀在本報告尾部的重要法律聲明8中金公司研究部：2021

年

5

月

2

日速凍米面食品單位：銷售額

萬元，銷售量

噸，單價

元/公斤圖表

6:3月行業(yè)銷售額受高基數(shù)影響增速承壓，速凍湯圓和面食表現(xiàn)好于行業(yè)整體歷史同比增速1歷史同比增速22021年3月全國商超速凍米面食品當(dāng)月同比環(huán)比年初累計同比

2021年2月2021年1月1Q214Q203Q202Q201Q204Q193Q192Q191Q19銷售額銷售量155,626.665,225.9-50.6%-48.3%-71.6%-72.3%980,080.1417,493.6-29.8%-28.1%-11.6%-8.6%-40.2%-40.7%-29.8%-28.1%-5.6%-9.8%11.8%3.9%22.2%15.1%40.5%24.2%15.6%7.2%9.2%3.5%3.5%-2.0%0.2%-3.3%其中：速凍湯圓銷售額銷售量27,056.313,950.319.4-48.1%-45.4%-5.0%-90.0%-88.9%-9.9%358,750.7169,960.221.1-12.3%-12.2%-0.1%15.8%15.8%0.0%-50.4%-49.0%-2.7%-12.3%-12.2%-0.1%-5.6%-8.5%3.2%8.1%0.5%7.6%17.4%4.7%12.1%9.0%-0.7%9.8%6.1%-0.5%6.7%5.0%4.7%0.3%-0.9%0.0%-0.9%0.5%-0.6%1.1%單位均價水餃銷售額銷售量單位均價52,094.122,407.723.2-55.9%-54.1%-3.9%-58.9%-58.0%-2.0%274,630.8117,652.223.3-40.7%-39.3%-2.3%-28.8%-27.4%-1.9%-42.6%-41.5%-1.9%-40.7%-39.3%-12.9%-2.3%-8.4%9.9%2.2%7.6%38.5%27.3%8.8%69.3%50.7%12.4%20.3%11.1%8.2%8.9%0.4%8.4%-0.8%-9.4%-12.3%9.5%-4.6%5.2%8.8%面食銷售額銷售量單位均價31,311.013,545.123.1-49.7%-45.4%-7.9%-41.1%-38.9%-3.6%131,158.355,659.123.6-37.0%-34.1%-4.4%-37.1%-34.0%-4.6%-24.0%-23.4%-0.7%-37.0%-34.1%-4.4%3.3%-1.6%5.0%21.1%13.4%6.8%34.3%18.5%13.3%60.1%41.1%13.5%13.0%7.4%5.2%8.1%5.5%2.5%5.4%5.7%-0.2%6.0%5.7%0.3%粽子銷售額銷售量單位均價984.0486.720.2-58.2%-46.8%-21.4%-28.3%-10.3%-20.1%3,593.31,567.422.9-50.2%-43.1%-12.3%-41.3