ARMA模型在傳染病預測中的應用

貴州民族學院畢業(yè)論文貴州民族學院畢業(yè)論文#SAS系統(tǒng)SAS系統(tǒng)LagCorreiation18:33Monday,June3,200217TheARIMAProcedureInverse咅utocorrelations1-0.5976620.169943-0.16683■：+：：+：*40.14866：+：：+：：+：.5-0.08328■**60.03247：+!?70.04366:+：?8-0.03584?*-198765432101234567891PartialAutocorrelations120.85535-0.31904iji3-0.142074-0.2061450.03884:+：?6-0.0420970.07357:+：?80.08097：+!：+!■LagCorreiaticin-1765432101234567891(3)ARMA(2,0)模型:-datael;inputx@@;cards;2?口21?671■呂口1?5呂2?193?126?15呂■耳8.8710.0211?口6耳耳?7呂3?663?664?口33?9理5?145?3口3?653?63.773.933?口52■呂32■理61?6呂1■孕31?601?150.84匚1?6理-procarima;identifyvar=x;estimatep=2q=Orun;芒水總tm：lbluesday,June4?ZUUZTheARIMAProcedureNameofVariable=xMeanofWorkingSeries3.918824StandardDeviation2.520779NumberofObservations34StdError06.3543281.00000StdError06.3543281.0000015.4351870.05535■iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii1111111111T1111ip>!■"T1"T1"T1"T1"T1"T1"T1"T""T1"T"24.1049300.64601■illillillillillillillillillillillillill1111111111T1111ip>!■"T1"T1"T1"T1"T1"T132.6797110.42171■iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii■T,,T,,T,,T,,T,,T,,T,,T,.41.1686900.183925-0.013155-.002076-0.867474-.136527-1.276305-.200860-1.199983-.18805CovarianceCorrelation-198765432101234567891markstwowtandarderrors00.1714990.2691630.3114430.3278080.3308300.3300300.3324830.336033S莊：系統(tǒng)18:15Tuesday,June4?20022TheAF：IMAProcedureIm已rse^i」tocu「「已丨sti匚|「匡；LagCorrelation-1987654821U12345678911-0.5976620.16994■：+：*：!!?8-0.1668340.14866■：+：*：!!?5-0.08828■60.03247■:+:?70.04366■;+;?8-0.03584?：+:F'artialAutucorreIationsLagCorrelation-198765432101234567891120.85535-0.318043-0.142074-0.2061450.03884:+:?6-0.0420970.07357:+:?80.08097:+::+:■-datael;input.xljlj;tiinp=_n_;cards;2?口21?671■呂匸11?5呂2?193?124?266?158?4呂?呂71CI.CI23?663?664?32理?口!33?9理5?1理5?303?653?63E3?933?052■閃2■理61?681?931?6口1?150?84□?11