證券研究報(bào)告 全A指數(shù)PE（TTM）5年20.7%分位 20230827 -中信建投

證券研究報(bào)告策略周報(bào)全A指數(shù)PE(TTM)5年20.7%分位odcqcsccomcnwencsccomcn年08月27日本報(bào)告由中信建投證券股份有限公司在中華人民共和國(僅為本報(bào)告目的，不包括香港、澳門、臺灣)提供。在遵守適用的法律法規(guī)情況下，本報(bào)告亦可能由中信建投(國際)證券有限公司在香港提供。請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款和聲明。本周市場表現(xiàn)/景氣/估值要點(diǎn)概覽2核心觀點(diǎn)：市場表現(xiàn)層面，本周低市盈率、小盤、消費(fèi)風(fēng)格表現(xiàn)居前。盈利層面，8月23年Wind盈利一致預(yù)期上調(diào)幅度靠前的申萬一級行業(yè)為美容護(hù)理、商貿(mào)零售、食品飲料，近一周汽車零部件盈利預(yù)測上調(diào)明顯。景氣層面，“認(rèn)房不認(rèn)貸”推進(jìn)，后續(xù)觀察一線城市執(zhí)行情況；乘用車銷售有韌性，看好“金九銀十”表現(xiàn)；豬價維穩(wěn)調(diào)整，短期需求或有所提升。估值及交易熱度層面，機(jī)器人、證券交易熱度市場表現(xiàn)：本周(8.19-8.25)低市盈率、小盤、消費(fèi)風(fēng)格表現(xiàn)居前；交通運(yùn)輸、高市盈率、大盤表現(xiàn)靠后。主要指數(shù)成分中，上證50、滬深300表現(xiàn)居前；寧組合、中證1000表現(xiàn)靠后。行業(yè)漲跌幅上，環(huán)保/農(nóng)林牧漁/食品飲料漲幅居前，建筑裝飾/電力設(shè)備/機(jī)械設(shè)備跌幅居前。熱門概念普遍下跌。盈利預(yù)測變動：8月23年Wind盈利一致預(yù)期上調(diào)幅度靠前的申萬一級行業(yè)為美容護(hù)理(+4.36%)、商貿(mào)零售(+0.20%)、食品飲料(+0.02%)；下調(diào)幅度靠前的行業(yè)為農(nóng)林牧漁、建筑材料。數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈細(xì)分方面，以Wind一致預(yù)期看，23年盈利預(yù)期排序：SAAS(146%)>網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全(143%)>數(shù)據(jù)安全(120%)>顯示面板(107%)>在線教育(79%)>數(shù)字政府(73%)>游戲(除世紀(jì)華通)(72%)>IDC(66%)。行業(yè)景氣核心指標(biāo)變動：1)周期：價格上行：焦煤/焦炭、玻璃、水泥、動力煤等；價格震蕩：鋁等；價格下行：螺紋鋼、布油、銅等；2)大金融：地產(chǎn)方面，“認(rèn)房不認(rèn)貸”推進(jìn)，后續(xù)觀察一線城市執(zhí)行情況。據(jù)克爾瑞地產(chǎn)監(jiān)測，截至8月20日當(dāng)周，14城二手房成交面積環(huán)比下降2%，同比下降7%。30城新房成交面積同比-26.7%，降幅較上周收窄0.8pct，銷售仍承壓。銀行方面，MLF下調(diào)后5年LPR未降，銀行凈息差維護(hù)；3)高端制造：汽車方面，乘用車銷售有韌性，看好行業(yè)“金九銀十”表現(xiàn)。據(jù)乘聯(lián)會初步統(tǒng)計(jì)，8月1-20日，乘用車市場零售94.7萬輛，同比增長5%，環(huán)比增長1%。新能源車市場零售35.1萬輛，同比增長29%，環(huán)比增長1%。光伏方面，產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上游再續(xù)漲勢，靜待需求改善。4)消費(fèi)：必選方面，豬價維穩(wěn)調(diào)整，短期需求或有所提升。可選方面，白酒整體以庫存消化為主，關(guān)注Q3中秋、國慶旺季動銷表現(xiàn)。估值水平及交易熱度：全A(非金融兩油)、滬深300股權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價均位于7年90%分位上方；上證指數(shù)/上證50估值分別處于5年28.5%/33.6%分位數(shù)附近；創(chuàng)業(yè)板指/寧組合分別處于市盈率5年4.3%/0.0%分位數(shù)附近。交易熱度方面，申萬一級板塊中，環(huán)保板塊熱度高企。申萬二級板塊中，機(jī)器人、證券交易熱度高位。股指及風(fēng)格市場表現(xiàn)：低市盈率/小盤占優(yōu)-2.0-4.0本周(8.19-8.25)低市盈率、小盤、消費(fèi)風(fēng)格表現(xiàn)居前；-2.0-4.000表現(xiàn)靠后。900924797-6上證-4.8時間大/小盤低/中/高市盈率中信風(fēng)格低中高金融地產(chǎn)原材料設(shè)備制造交通運(yùn)輸消費(fèi)科技07MW408MW108MW208MW308MW41.121.60-0.11-2.48-0.11-2.48-0.44-3.73-3.49-2.37-3.750.440.91-3.58-3.61-4.170.440.91-3.58-3.61-4.170.05-3.250.05-3.25-1.62-1.71-3.30-2.56-2.882.800.00-2.45-2.05-2.572.800.00-2.45-2.05-2.572.773.680.240.49-3.90-2.87-3.958.153.00-4.57-2.46-3.88-1.533.00-4.57-2.46-3.88-1.53-2.48-2.29-1.36-0.90-0.94-0.35-4.45-3.39-1.19-1.44行業(yè)漲跌幅表現(xiàn)：環(huán)保/農(nóng)林牧漁/食品飲料表現(xiàn)居前環(huán)農(nóng)食傳煤銀石家有環(huán)農(nóng)食傳煤銀石家有社非醫(yī)公基建鋼通汽紡房電國計(jì)美商輕交機(jī)電建保林品媒炭行油用色會銀藥用礎(chǔ)筑鐵信車織地子防算容貿(mào)工通械力筑牧飲石電金服金生事化材服產(chǎn)軍機(jī)護(hù)零制運(yùn)設(shè)設(shè)裝漁料化器屬務(wù)融物業(yè)工料飾工理售造輸備備飾2.00.80.0-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.40.0-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.5-4.0-2.2-2.4-2.5-2.6-2.7-2.7-2.8-2.8-2.9-3.3-3.4-3.4-3.7-1.1-6.0-4.7-4.8-5.0-6.0-4.7-4.8-5.0-5.4-5.60005.0 0本周表現(xiàn)居前申萬二級行業(yè)漲跌幅表現(xiàn)(%).54.51.90.70.70.60.60.50.40.30.3漁業(yè)出版白酒家電零部件國行型銀養(yǎng)殖業(yè)3煉化及貿(mào)易4農(nóng)商行5白色家電6股份制銀行6工業(yè)金屬前板塊分析析23.2%100.0%8月24日,日本啟動福島第一核電站核污染水排海。同日，海關(guān)總署發(fā)布公告，決定自2023年8月24日(含)起全面暫停進(jìn)口原產(chǎn)地為日本的水產(chǎn)品(含食用水生動物),帶動淡水養(yǎng)殖景氣底部反彈，水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖板塊活躍。5.5%30.4%據(jù)中國黃金協(xié)會統(tǒng)計(jì)，上半年黃金飾品消費(fèi)量達(dá)368.26萬噸，同比增長14.82%。市場關(guān)注鮑威爾在杰克遜霍爾全球央行年會上的講話，貴金屬提前走強(qiáng)。8月25日，鮑威爾發(fā)表講話，警告通脹“依舊過高”，并表示“如果適宜，美聯(lián)儲準(zhǔn)備繼續(xù)加息”，表明未來還會進(jìn)一步加息的價有所回落。4.7%94.4%8月21日財(cái)政部發(fā)布《關(guān)于印發(fā)<企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)資源相關(guān)會計(jì)處理暫行規(guī)定>的通知》，并明確文件于2024年1月1日起施行。明確數(shù)據(jù)資源可入表，適用于現(xiàn)行會計(jì)準(zhǔn)則，數(shù)據(jù)資源根據(jù)類型按照無形資產(chǎn)(以自用為目的)或存貨(以出售為目的)的會計(jì)準(zhǔn)則進(jìn)行處理，或可降低當(dāng)期表觀損益情況，直接利好擁有數(shù)據(jù)資源公司。2.1%94.9%8月24日，國家發(fā)改委、生態(tài)環(huán)境部、住建部印發(fā)了《環(huán)境基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)水平提升行動(2023—2025年)》，部署推動補(bǔ)齊環(huán)境基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施短板弱項(xiàng)，全面提升環(huán)境基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)水平，同日，日本啟動福島第一核電站核污染水排海，核污染防治概念持續(xù)發(fā)酵。wwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7wwwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1wwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w100201920202021202220230002021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-0312000002022-062022-092022-122023-032023-0600據(jù)跟蹤生產(chǎn)復(fù)蘇情況wwww0w3w6w9w2w5wwwww0w3w6w9w2w5w8w1w4w7w0w3w6w9w211233455677899上下中上下中上下中上下中上下中上下中圖：汽車全鋼胎(重型卡車)開工率上行(%)201920202021202220230wwwwww0w3w6w9w2w5w8w1w4w7w0w3w6w9w220192020202120222023700020192020202120222023Wind7wwww0wwwww0w3w6w9w2w5w8w1w4w7w0w3w6w9w220192020202120222023020192020202120222023wwwwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1201920202021202220230wwwwwwww1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1w3w5w7w9w1周期階段起始時間終止時間持續(xù)時間主動補(bǔ)庫存被動補(bǔ)庫存主動去庫存被動去庫存9主動補(bǔ)庫存被動補(bǔ)庫存主動去庫存被動去庫存36主動補(bǔ)庫存被動補(bǔ)庫存主動去庫存9主動補(bǔ)庫存被動補(bǔ)庫存被動去庫存327主動補(bǔ)庫存被動補(bǔ)庫存主動去庫存被動補(bǔ)庫存主動去庫存被動去庫存67422比550060%50%40%30%20%%0%PE(TTM)10年分位PE(TTM)10年分位A融、石油石化)上證指數(shù)中證500萬得全A滬深300科創(chuàng)50創(chuàng)業(yè)板指寧組合科創(chuàng)50-11.0%-9.0%-7.0%-5.0%-3.0%-1.0%1.0%近近四周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)050A茅指數(shù)510152025303540 PE(整體法，TTM)指數(shù)近四周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)PE(整體法,TTM)3年分位5年分位10年分位PE(中位數(shù),TTM)3年分位5年分位10年分位PB(LF)3年分位5年分位10年分位萬得全A-0.9%1616.77.1%20.7%24.9%331.5111.68%22.95%11.52%1.561.3%7.8%6.8%萬得全A(除金融、石油石化)-1.2%226.55.2%23.4%26.3%332.0811.68%23.73%11.91%22.170.0%15.6%15.2%上證指數(shù)-0.6%12.620.8%28.5%27.3%228.1122.72%44.35%24.80%1.299.7%14.4%10.9%滬深300-1.1%11.47.8%15.2%21.6% 20.136.49%19.84%16.40%1.323.9%7.4%10.5%上證50-0.6%9.718.2%33.6%36.7%7.7353.24%68.87%68.55%1.2414.3%42.0%47.1%中證500-1.9%22.22.041.6%35.5%18.4%223.7835.71%43.19%21.67%1.7016.2%16.7%8.4%中證1000-4.6%33.833.840.9%34.8%24.7%229.335.84%17.89%10.37%0.0%11.7%6.6%創(chuàng)業(yè)板指-1.4%229.10.0%4.3%2.2%333.467.14%14.00%7.03%%12.5%8.4%科創(chuàng)50-10.4%38.02.6%2.2%2.2%44.120.64%0.53%0.53%3.803.800.0%0.0%0.0%茅指數(shù)-0.4%221.30.0%18.4%54.5%330.432.59%2.33%19.33%3.953.953.2%13.6%48.4%寧組合-0.3%227.90.0%0.0%0.0%331.770.00%0.00%0.00%5.360.0%13.2%43.0%Wind10081204081204081204081204081204081204081204081204081204081204滬深300隱含風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(%)7年10%-90%區(qū)間7年均值87654321003543210-1-2080106110409020712051003080106110409萬得全A隱含風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(%)7年10%-90%區(qū)間02071205隱含風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價=1/指數(shù)市盈率-中債10年期國債0308010611040903080106110409020712051003080106110409020712050308010611040902071205100308010611040902071205圖：萬得全A(除金融兩油)股權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價圖：滬深300(除金融)股權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價4滬深300(除金融)隱含風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(%)7年10%-90%區(qū)間3 3萬得全A4滬深300(除金融)隱含風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(%)7年10%-90%區(qū)間3221100-1-1隱含風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價=1/指數(shù)市盈率-中債10年期國債股指PE-G/PB-ROE數(shù)PE-G(注：藍(lán)色空心圓代表上一月盈利預(yù)期所在位置)圖：主要指數(shù)PB-ROE38萬預(yù)測創(chuàng)A除金0PE萬預(yù)測創(chuàng)A除金0滬深300滬深300上5101520253035975BROEROE(TTM)-23Q1數(shù)數(shù)創(chuàng)業(yè)板指上證50證指數(shù)創(chuàng)創(chuàng)0中00PB(LF)0123456板塊年初至今漲跌幅-19.2-19.2-14.9-25.0-6.7盈利增速預(yù)測7月調(diào)整幅度8月調(diào)整幅度44.36%上周調(diào)整幅度本周調(diào)整幅度美容護(hù)理38.9%-34.8%62.3%0.70.76%3.30%綜合83.0%-4.3%-36.1%-0.04%-0.04%3.39%0.00.00%3.46%商貿(mào)零售-164.5%72.7%64.7%-2.09%-2.09%0.20.20%0.50.53%-0.-0.16%食品飲料9.8%23.7%-0.23%-0.23%0.00.02%-0.07%-0.07%-0.09%-0.09%家用電器4.823.3.626.7-10.60.1%9.9%0.40.42%-0.02%-0.02%0.00.07%0.00.00%傳媒82.2%-68.9%216.2%0.30.39%-0.03%-0.03%-0.23%-0.23%--0.36%建筑裝飾-3.3%-0.-0.13%-0.-0.10%0.00.00%-0.08%-0.08%通信9.5%-0.24%-0.24%-0.22%-0.22%-0.-0.13%-0.02%-0.02%交通運(yùn)輸2041.1%-44.1%0%00.10%-0.26%-0.26%-0.05%-0.05%-0.-0.19%銀行-2.8-5.6-13.-13.3-10.5-0.62.3-0.3-13.40.259.47.6%5.3%-0.07%-0.07%-0.27%-0.27%0.00.00%-0.-0.18%國防軍工8.5%-7.4%74.1%-0.52%-0.52%--0.30%--0.31%-0.03%-0.03%社會服務(wù)8.3%-43.4%2207.8%0.30.39%-0.48%-0.48%-0.24%-0.24%--0.38%房地產(chǎn)-77.4%-213.4%89.3%0.00.04%-0.49%-0.49%0.00.04%-0.-0.17%汽車-0.4%45.5%0.00.09%-0.54%-0.54%-0.-0.14%--0.33%環(huán)保-13.3%-11.1%32.6%-0.29%-0.29%-0.55%-0.55%-0.-0.11%--0.36%公用事業(yè)-58.7%84.6%91.9%-0.65%-0.65%-0.-0.17%-0.54%-0.54%醫(yī)藥生物55.6%-6.2%28.6%-0.48%-0.48%--0.78%-0.22%-0.22%-0.64%-0.64%機(jī)械設(shè)備9.5%-6.1%31.5%-0.57%-0.57%-1.06%-1.06%-0.-0.17%-0.58%-0.58%石油石化0%30.9%6.0%0.00.09%--1.35%-0.57%-0.57%-0.42%-0.42%非銀金融5.4%-26.9%36.2%--0.32%-1.40%-1.40%-0.21%-0.21%--1.12%輕工制造-5.3-1.-1.2-7.10.6%-32.2%64.1%-0.51%-0.51%-1.69%-1.69%-0.-0.10%--1.12%紡織服飾59.8%-42.8%26.6%-0.-0.12%-1.81%-1.81%--0.39%.23%有色金屬4%68.4%7.3% -2.42%-2.27%-2.27%-0.-0.17%-1.89%-1.89%計(jì)算機(jī)6.0%-44.2%94.9%-0.64%-0.64%--2.38%-0.66%-0.66%-1.62%-1.62%電子-2.8-3.1-16.2-16.2-12.2-10.7-9.7-11.996.2%-28.4%26.2%-1.-1.10%-2.63%-2.63%-0.66%-0.66%--1.33%鋼鐵89.9%-72.9%56.7%-0.25%-0.25%-2.97%-2.97%-1.01%-1.01%-1.99%-1.99%電力設(shè)備42.0%82.8%33.0%-0.42%-0.42%-3.51%-3.51%-0.44%-0.44%.25%基礎(chǔ)化工.7%-5.6%3.3% -2.89%-3.59%-3.59%-0.65%-0.65%-2.-2.13%煤炭72.9%51.7%-5.3%--4.34%-1.41%-1.41%-1.97%-1.97%建筑材料-46.1%-0.99%-0.99%--0.30%-9.03%農(nóng)林牧漁-140.8%4%52.4%-6.94%-18.46%-13.30%-2.95%-2.95%動力煤更新時間2023/8/252023/8/232023/8/25動力煤更新時間2023/8/252023/8/232023/8/252023/8/312023/7/312023/7/312023/8/212023/8/42023/6/302023/6/30更新時間2023/8/252023/8/252023/7/312023/7/312023/8/252023/8/25指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢價格動力煤期貨價環(huán)渤海動力煤紐卡斯?fàn)柆F(xiàn)貨價動力煤長協(xié)價周月801.4715.0154.7704.0元/噸元/噸美元/噸元/噸0.0%-0.1%6.1%0.4%-6%-2%17%-2%量原煤產(chǎn)量當(dāng)月同比進(jìn)口量當(dāng)月同比月月0.166.9%%-4.3-431--庫存CCTD主流港口庫存周6548.9萬噸-1.8%23%求樣本區(qū)域電廠日耗當(dāng)月發(fā)電量消費(fèi)量：動力煤：電力周月月221.3萬噸8461.7億千瓦時22157.0萬噸-6.2%14.4%11.6%5%20%指標(biāo)焦煤頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢價格國內(nèi)期貨價港口現(xiàn)貨價日日1509.01582.0元/噸元/噸7.4%0.0%-23%-17%量原煤產(chǎn)量當(dāng)月同比進(jìn)口量當(dāng)月同比%%3.1--庫存六港口合計(jì)焦化廠可用天數(shù)周周160.39.8萬噸天-6.2%-0.5-26%-1.7指標(biāo)頻率銅數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比趨勢更新時間2023/8/252023/8/252023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/6/302023/8/252023/8/25價格陰極銅期貨國內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨日日6.66.9萬元/噸萬元/噸-3.6%06%4%8%產(chǎn)量精煉銅銅材進(jìn)口銅礦+廢銅月月月.4.6212.4噸噸噸-5.7%-11.1%-7.4%5%3.9%3.3%庫存上期所LME+COMEX4.1噸噸3.5%04%-3%-24%鋁指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位環(huán)比同比趨勢價格鋁期貨國內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨日日萬元/噸萬元/噸0.6%-2%%產(chǎn)量電解鋁鋁材進(jìn)口鋁土礦開工率月月月月348.1528.4291.193.3噸噸噸%0.8%-12.4%.7%2.2%22.2%0.3庫存上期所LME周日9.852.6噸噸88%-45%94%8642050-102016-092017-112019-012020-032021-052022-07MLFLPR社融/信貸分別新增5282/3459億，大幅低于市場預(yù)期，實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)融資需求相。圖：地產(chǎn)板塊核心景氣跟蹤指標(biāo)圖：社融/M2/GDP同比情況指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢更新時間2022/12/312022/12/312023/8/202023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/8/202023/8/202023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/8/202023/8/202023/6/302023/6/302023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/7/31土地新建土地購置面積同比新增土地成交價款同比土地溢價率月月周-51.6-51.32.1%%%6.8-0.5-09---31價格70城新房價格指數(shù)同比70城二手房價格指數(shù)同比百城住宅價格：一線：同比百城住宅價格：二線：同比百城住宅價格：三線：同比二手房價格指數(shù)月月月月月周-0.6-3.1-0.2-0.40.0183.3%%%%%-0.20-0.30-0.010.06-0.1400%------44%量30城成交面積同比商品房銷售面積：累計(jì)同比開發(fā)投資：累計(jì)同比施工面積：累計(jì)同比新開工面積：累計(jì)同比竣工面積：累計(jì)同比周月月月月月-26.7-6.5-8.5-6.8-24.520.5%%%%%%0.8-1.2-0.6-0.2-0.21.5------庫存10城可售面積10城存銷比周周8384.187.6萬平米%0.2%10.3-3.8%21.0資金住房貸款加權(quán)平均利率個人住房貸款余額同比開發(fā)資金累計(jì)同比國內(nèi)貸款累計(jì)同比個人按揭貸款累計(jì)同比自籌資金累計(jì)同比季季月月月月4.1-0.7-11.2-11.5-1.0-230%%%%%%0.0-1.0-1.4-0.4-3.70.4-0.5-6.914.216.924.2-116指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位環(huán)比同比趨勢更新時間2023/8/232023/8/232023/8/232023/8/232023/8/232023/8/232023/8/232023/8/252023/5/312023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/6/302023/6/302023/6/302023/6/30價格多晶硅(致密料)單晶硅片182mm單晶硅片210mm單晶PERC電池片182mm單晶PERC電池片210mm單晶PERC組件-182mm光伏玻璃3.2mmEVA出廠價-揚(yáng)子巴斯夫75.014000元/千克元/片元/片元/W元/W元/W元/M2元2.7%6.3%3.6%0.0%0.0%-0.8%0.0%0.0%-75.2%-55.5%-56.1%-41.9%-43.0%-37.1%-5.5%-28.2%產(chǎn)銷國內(nèi)裝機(jī)量同比太陽能電池產(chǎn)量同比逆變器出口金額同比光伏電池出口金額同比月月月月88.965.1-13.0-282%%%%-210.32.5-46.9-237---開工率硅料：一線廠商單晶硅片：一線廠商單晶電池片：一線廠商組件：一線廠商月月月月101.081.084.053.0%%%%2.0-7.0-6.0-9.0----光伏：產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上游再續(xù)漲勢，靜待需求改善。產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上，據(jù)PVInfolink，本周多晶硅(致密料)價格持續(xù)上行，環(huán)比漲圖：汽車板塊核心景氣跟蹤指標(biāo)圖：光伏板塊核心景氣跟蹤指標(biāo)指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢更新時間2023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/8/242023/8/202023/8/202023/7/312023/7/312023/7/312023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/8/25警指數(shù)月月月.82-1%率5%零售同比批售同比量00%%00-37%--.期貨價貨價貨價日日日日03%1.3%6%06%指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢更新時間2023/8/272023/8/252023/8/182023/8/182023/8/252023/8/252023/7/262023/7/262023/7/262023/6/302023/6/30價格外三元生豬價格生豬期貨價仔豬價格豬肉價格17.2631.922.3元/公斤萬元/噸元/公斤元/公斤0%0%2%-23%-26%-35%-24%養(yǎng)殖利潤養(yǎng)殖利潤-生豬養(yǎng)殖利潤-仔豬生豬飼料價豬料比價豬料比價平衡點(diǎn)周周周周周21.9-4.6元/頭元/頭元/公斤-15.74.70%0.1-446.8-704.5-2.4產(chǎn)量生豬存欄同比能繁母豬存欄同比月月10.5%%-0.9-1.1--幅上漲。豬肉消費(fèi)受臨近照氣跟蹤指標(biāo)圖：飲品板塊核心景氣跟蹤指標(biāo)酒類更新時間2023/8/202023/8/202023/8/202023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/8/252023/7/312023/7/312023/6/302023/7/312023/7/31指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位環(huán)比同比趨勢白酒批價指數(shù)同比名酒批價指數(shù)同比地方酒批價指數(shù)同比飛天茅臺散瓶五糧液-普五瀘州老窖-國窖舍得-品味洋河夢之藍(lán)M6+古井貢-古20-10年產(chǎn)量京東線上銷額0.5%0.3%2850.096089534060047521528.718.6元元元元元元元億元-0.2%-0.2%-0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-24%-55%-1.5%-2.7%-4.8%-6.5%-13.6%0.0%-4%5%36大中城市均價產(chǎn)量淘寶+京東線上銷額月月月4.1402.44.8升億元-1.2%-4%5%-3%大類行業(yè)近一周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)PE(TTM,整體)3年分位5年分位10年分位PETTM中位數(shù))3年分位5年分位10年分位 (LF)3年分位5年分位10年分位五日成交額占比近一周變換手率(MA5)五近一周五年分位數(shù)化年分位變化消費(fèi)美容護(hù)理紡織服飾食品飲料家用電器醫(yī)藥生物輕工制造商貿(mào)零售社會服務(wù)農(nóng)林牧漁2.31%42.112.5%41.5%56.8%38.539.7%45.9%25.0%4.12.4%37.4%52.3%78.6%56.2%0.270.54%23.738.1%46.7%31.8%23.844.9%38.0%18.9%.710.1%15.7%7.8%29.8%28.7%-0.02%29.65.8%17.3%38.6%34.21.9%15.7%9.8%5.78.2%17.6%54.0%16.7%14.4%0.0013.56.8%14.0%14.4%22.00.6%8.2%4.1%2.32.6%3.8%5.9%4.0%7.4%0.01-0.39%24.827.0%18.3%9.1%27.90.0%3.9%2.0%2.70.1%0.9%0.5%16.5%-2.2%24.1%-0.41-0.85%28.966.9%79.9%47.6%26.525.0%18.0%9.0%.95.8%37.5%19.3%75.5%35.8%-0.01-2.34%34.071.9%83.1%66.5%31.864.1%75.7%57.0%.843.2%62.6%33.2%59.5%-0.4%39.1%-0.2577.920.0%48.6%71.3%39.28.3%38.4%26.4%3.211.8%16.7%10.2%74.8%46.5%0.05-9.91%28.040.5%40.0%26.2%39.726.9%31.1%24.8%2.72.7%10.4%6.4%19.5%41.6%0.78制造汽車國防軍工機(jī)械設(shè)備電力設(shè)備1.75%28.623.9%51.9%74.7%33.734.0%55.3%43.5%2.114.7%48.8%37.7%66.8%-0.3%43.4%-0.061.34%51.35.1%3.1%1.6%52.90.6%18.4%9.7%3.04.5%39.8%36.5%36.2%11.1%0.05-0.77%28.338.8%51.4%31.6%34.930.1%25.5%12.7%2.23.7%35.1%28.1%69.0%23.0%0.0619.40.1%0.0%0.0%31.40.0%7.8%4.1%2.80.0%37.0%33.3%50.5%16.7%-0.07周期石油石化有色金屬煤炭鋼鐵基礎(chǔ)化工建筑材料-0.48%14.155.8%47.2%23.5%33.360.3%63.1%36.1%.310.8%14.9%7.4%10.2%20.9%0.0012.50.1%0.1%0.0%26.25.8%3.9%2.0%2.10.1%30.9%15.9%5.1%10.3%0.15-2.21%5.80.2%0.1%0.1%6.926.9%16.5%8.2%.111.6%35.9%23.4%26.0%24.0%0.15-2.91%23.594.8%96.9%58.9%18.483.3%89.8%53.1%0.910.8%27.5%24.1%23.2%26.0%0.04-3.88%16.436.2%30.5%15.2%25.927.6%18.8%9.4%.90.0%28.6%14.3%7.9%26.4%0.17-9.86%18.392.5%95.5%56.6%24.482.1%80.8%40.2%.43.6%2.2%1.1%6.2%14.2%0.03科技通信傳媒電子計(jì)算機(jī)-0.04%29.925.2%15.2%8.0%49.751.3%49.0%27.7%2.250.0%33.3%18.6%77.2%46.0%0.33-0.56%42.384.2%80.6%53.9%45.979.5%82.0%54.5%2.553.8%63.0%33.4%70.4%0.5939.459.0%60.2%35.6%43.460.9%60.0%31.8%2.40.0%7.0%3.5%5.3%3.4%0.1360.764.2%67.4%65.9%58.266.7%65.1%42.3%3.426.3%29.7%17.2%72.1%0.67金融地產(chǎn)房地產(chǎn)銀行建筑裝飾非銀金融5.34%14.894.0%96.4%64.8%20.373.7%83.9%54.7%0.914.7%8.8%4.4%55.3%-0.6%-0.384.77.1%4.2%5.0%5.05.1%3.1%9.7%0.55.9%3.5%1.8%36.5%53.4%0.00-0.67%9.129.1%22.0%11.3%25.457.7%72.2%50.6%0.84.5%2.7%1.3%70.4%0.3415.164.1%48.0%34.8%23.880.1%51.8%40.2%.230.0%18.0%9.0%-2.6%-0.43公用環(huán)保公用事業(yè)交通運(yùn)輸3.92%21.856.4%46.6%23.4%24.872.4%74.1%36.9%.514.5%9.0%4.5%1.450.09%23.442.5%64.6%59.0%22.233.3%35.3%17.6%.633.0%54.9%27.6%20.8%19.0%0.05-0.41%12.830.7%18.5%9.2%18.839.7%27.5%19.3%.40.5%13.3%14.4%57.0%31.3%0.04資料來源：Wind，中信建投(注：成交額占比指相對全A占比)PB(LF)五年分位0計(jì)算機(jī)0汽車023年業(yè)績增速(%)Wind一致預(yù)期氣泡大小表示23Q1ROE(TTM)電子0PB(LF)五年分位0計(jì)算機(jī)0汽車023年業(yè)績增速(%)Wind一致預(yù)期氣泡大小表示23Q1ROE(TTM)電子0傳媒公用事業(yè)非銀金融有色金屬1用電器煤炭紡織服飾美容護(hù)理鋼鐵國防軍工石油石化建筑裝飾醫(yī)藥生物建筑材料機(jī)械設(shè)備電力設(shè)備交通運(yùn)輸輕工制造環(huán)保食品飲料基礎(chǔ)化工通信銀行景氣方向板塊近一周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)近四周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)邊際上調(diào)房地產(chǎn)環(huán)保美容護(hù)理國防軍工紡織服飾公用事業(yè)5.34%3.92%2.31%0.54%0.09%348.76%0.49%0.99%9.49%0.36%邊際下調(diào)食品飲料通信家用電器銀行醫(yī)藥生物交通運(yùn)輸石油石化傳媒建筑裝飾機(jī)械設(shè)備輕工制造電力設(shè)備非銀金融有色金屬煤炭商貿(mào)零售鋼鐵社會服務(wù)計(jì)算機(jī)基礎(chǔ)化工建筑材料農(nóng)林牧漁-0.02%-0.04%-0.39%-0.41%-0.48%-0.56%-0.67%-0.77%-0.85%-2.21%-2.34%-2.91%-3.88%-9.86%-9.91%0.060.06%-0.38%-0.26%-0.04%7.647.64%0.020.02%-0.75%-5.26%-3.89%-4.28%-3.95%-21.38%-3.88%-5.67%-23.75%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%QROE(TTM)來分位基礎(chǔ)化工石油石化%食品飲料家用電器銀行電子房地產(chǎn)-10%炭%公用事業(yè)QROE(TTM)來分位基礎(chǔ)化工石油石化%食品飲料家用電器銀行電子房地產(chǎn)-10%炭%公用事業(yè)輕工制造PB分位0%10%20%30%40%50%60%M板板塊23Q1ROE(TTM)2010年以來分位23Q1相比22AROE(TTM)變動方向23Q1相比22AROE(TTM)變動通信電力設(shè)備有色金屬煤炭基礎(chǔ)化工國防軍工石油石化機(jī)械設(shè)備食品飲料鋼鐵家用電器美容護(hù)理農(nóng)林牧漁傳媒紡織服飾環(huán)保交通運(yùn)輸輕工制造公用事業(yè)商貿(mào)零售建筑材料汽車非銀金融社會服務(wù)醫(yī)藥生物計(jì)算機(jī)建筑裝飾銀行房地產(chǎn)98.0%98.0%94.0%94.0%70.0%68.0%62.0%62.0%46.0%42.0%36.0%30.0%28.0%24.0%22.0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%8.0%4.0%4.0%2.0%2.0%0.0%上行上行上行上行上行上行上行上行-0.2-1.2-2.8-2.0-3.0-0.3-1.0-0.5-0.5-1.6-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.2--1.4--0.90.1-0.2-1.6-0.5-0.2值及交易指標(biāo)：汽車零部件發(fā)盈利預(yù)測上調(diào)明顯估值水平大類行業(yè)近一周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)PE(TTM,整體)3年分位5年分位10年分位PE(TTM.中位數(shù))3年分位5年分位10年分位PB(LF)3年分位5年分位10年分位五日成交額占比近一周換手率(MA5)五近一周五年分位數(shù)變化年分位變化消費(fèi)化妝品41.50.5%0.5%34.1%61.2%38.514.7%28.0%25.7%3.80.7%34.6%26.4%82.7%0.0%62.5%0.42家電零部件28.63.7%3.7%33.5%25.3%26.32.6%2.8%1.7%3.41.9%33.1%41.7%42.8%0.0%12.6%-0.17航空機(jī)場0.96%1360.578.7%87.2%93.6%44.748.1%68.1%80.0%3.378.9%87.3%92.9%69.1%0.0%29.5%0.03家居用品0.44%23.914.4%13.4%6.7%22.421.8%13.3%6.9%2.311.0%43.0%22.1%20.2%-0.1%14.9%0.00啤酒0.08%37.52.1%1.6%15.5%32.40.6%1.6%3.4%4.34.6%41.9%70.1%83.1%-0.1%64.0%-0.110.02%30.411.3%11.3%33.9%59.5%32.28.3%39.0%44.2%7.813.0%28.4%63.7%19.4%0.1%15.7%0.11白色家電0.02%11.115.6%11.1%9.6%14.11.3%0.8%0.4%2.37.3%4.4%2.2%5.0%0.0%0.9%0.02小家電-0.01%22.83.4%8.5%4.2%21.92.6%20.9%13.1%3.50.1%23.9%36.4%52.0%0.0%53.4%0.18醫(yī)療器械19.133.5%20.1%10.0%25.30.6%0.4%0.2%2.60.1%0.1%0.0%24.7%-0.3%12.2%-0.29食品加工-0.42%22.90.1%0.1%0.1%30.517.3%14.9%7.9%2.90.1%0.1%0.0%8.9%0.0%16.2%-0.06化學(xué)制劑-0.58%30.89.9%10.7%5.8%25.60.0%0.4%0.2%2.77.5%4.5%2.3%22.7%-0.4%23.9%-0.47CXO-0.81%22.17.8%4.7%2.3%29.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.76.8%4.1%2.0%55.4%-0.1%51.6%-0.28酒店餐飲-2.99%211.243.9%66.3%83.2%83.355.1%72.0%80.5%2.79.2%42.3%21.8%78.1%0.0%58.1%-0.46醫(yī)療服務(wù)84.888.6%25.5%46.6%73.216.7%31.5%36.3%6.20.3%33.5%50.1%31.0%0.0%5.4%-0.13養(yǎng)殖業(yè)20.741.4%31.7%24.1%35.332.7%54.3%31.6%3.011.8%7.1%6.8%11.6%0.1%11.0%0.16制造汽車零部件28.949.9%69.9%66.3%35.641.0%60.8%44.9%2.112.3%45.0%29.4%89.3%-0.1%49.2%-0.07航空裝備2.57%48.90.4%10.2%5.1%49.70.0%26.7%14.0%3.30.1%37.0%31.3%6.0%-0.1%1.5%-0.03工程機(jī)械25.472.4%83.0%59.6%29.182.7%87.0%54.8%.814.1%20.0%51.8%10.6%0.0%14.4%0.03乘用車-0.33%24.36.6%6.6%43.8%72.0%16.00.0%11.4%7.9%2.25.8%43.4%62.0%47.2%-0.2%41.3%-0.13電網(wǎng)設(shè)備-0.58%16.50.0%0.0%0.0%33.634.6%29.1%18.3%2.22.5%39.0%22.4%13.4%-0.3%10.9%-0.29電池-0.87%24.70.4%1.3%0.7%29.67.1%4.3%2.7%3.50.0%26.0%20.1%44.3%0.0%27.2%-0.20軍工電子-0.95%41.17.7%8.4%4.2%40.05.1%3.5%2.2%3.50.5%27.9%20.1%30.8%0.0%6.3%0.11光伏設(shè)備14.30.1%0.1%0.0%26.20.0%5.5%3.5%3.30.1%35.0%40.7%54.1%0.2%13.6%0.20風(fēng)電設(shè)備25.547.7%60.6%39.1%30.753.8%66.9%46.2%.60.0%16.7%11.1%58.1%0.0%24.4%0.33機(jī)器人-3.36%77.888.5%93.1%74.1%41.244.9%52.8%33.3%3.943.7%61.1%31.3%97.4%0.0%94.0%-0.11TMT游戲-0.38%37.985.0%87.5%53.2%32.478.2%68.5%44.7%3.075.3%73.6%40.2%86.6%0.0%68.9%0.40消費(fèi)電子-0.55%27.724.9%22.5%11.2%34.537.2%30.6%16.0%2.87.3%4.4%2.2%18.8%0.1%6.6%0.11半導(dǎo)體-2.81%48.235.1%28.4%14.1%58.945.5%36.5%20.0%3.60.0%17.1%22.0%10.8%-0.1%1.2%0.07金融地產(chǎn)公用房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)6.25%14.494.0%96.4%64.8%20.076.3%85.5%58.1%0.816.7%10.1%5.0%58.6%-0.6%88.8%-0.38電力0.07%24.442.6%65.5%78.3%24.650.6%66.7%53.0%.535.0%58.0%42.3%50.3%0.1%33.1%0.05城商行4.94.9%3.0%9.1%5.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.53.6%2.1%1.1%38.3%-0.1%41.8%-0.03證券-0.25%21.062.0%40.7%38.7%29.084.0%54.5%55.5%.338.8%32.1%18.1%90.7%-2.4%86.7%-0.68基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)-0.42%8.041.5%36.0%17.9%13.735.9%36.5%19.1%0.734.0%21.8%10.9%83.5%0.3%78.8%0.52物流13.70.8%0.5%0.4%19.02.6%1.6%0.8%.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%0.0%29.8%0.13周期能源金屬6.00.0%0.0%0.0%6.10.0%0.0%0.0%2.10.0%0.0%0.0%12.9%0.0%1.0%0.08普鋼-0.89%25.995.9%97.5%65.6%13.351.9%70.5%53.6%0.827.6%25.3%21.5%30.4%0.0%31.7%0.03貴金屬43.579.4%72.2%54.3%30.718.6%14.9%11.5%2.951.2%65.8%50.6%30.4%0.0%31.7%0.03農(nóng)化制品9.72.9%1.7%0.9%15.422.4%13.8%8.6%.90.3%32.0%16.7%35.3%0.0%9.3%0.00煤炭開采5.30.3%0.2%0.1%6.025.6%15.7%9.9%.117.4%45.5%28.2%37.1%0.2%29.9%0.13工業(yè)金屬-2.24%15.334.4%20.7%10.3%23.030.1%18.8%9.9%.937.0%62.1%42.8%37.6%0.2%16.7%0.11裝修建材-2.34%29.154.7%60.6%40.1%31.477.6%75.7%39.8%2.45.8%17.1%13.9%26.3%0.0%42.3%0.050.300.190.480.480.49.310.300.340.430.31數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈細(xì)分22年實(shí)際增速23年預(yù)測增速(Wind一致預(yù)期)(2023E)(2023E)上游網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全顯示面板操作系統(tǒng)半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備計(jì)算機(jī)設(shè)備半導(dǎo)體材料消0.300.190.480.480.49.310.300.340.430.31數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈細(xì)分22年實(shí)際增速23年預(yù)測增速(Wind一致預(yù)期)(2023E)(2023E)上游網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全顯示面板操作系統(tǒng)半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備計(jì)算機(jī)設(shè)備半導(dǎo)體材料消費(fèi)電子服務(wù)器半導(dǎo)體分立器件光纖光纜汽車電子基站光模塊半導(dǎo)體封測-77%-82% -3% 25%-12% 37%-15%4%-13%324%9% 4% 33% -2%-45%143%66%54%48%45%43%34%33%33%31%30%26%22%14%%43.320.332.049.929.924.220.725.622.222.924.140.328.70.930.620.540.580.770.670.770.92數(shù)據(jù)安全云計(jì)算工業(yè)軟件運(yùn)營商-48%-40%-20% -4%9%146%65%43%10%43.441.03游在線教育數(shù)字政府游戲(除世紀(jì)華通)數(shù)字媒體金融科技智能汽車智能物流智能電網(wǎng)-60% 0%-23%-11%127% 43%79%73%72%47%43%21%20%16%33.738.422.629.030.80.530.610.720.910.590.93.0.0操作系統(tǒng).0.040.0數(shù)字政府3在線教育金融科技金融科技半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備服務(wù)器數(shù)字媒體基站計(jì)算機(jī)設(shè)備基站計(jì)算機(jī)設(shè)備游戲(除世紀(jì)華通)智能汽車半導(dǎo)體分立器件運(yùn)營商運(yùn)營商汽車電子消費(fèi)電子半導(dǎo)體材料10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%.0.0光伏加工設(shè)備創(chuàng)新藥光伏加工設(shè)備電池組件風(fēng)電設(shè)備40%50%60%70%80%90%23年預(yù)測增速(Wind一致預(yù)期)(2023E)(2023E)儲能逆變器風(fēng)電設(shè)備消費(fèi)電子光伏加工設(shè)備電池組件半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備半導(dǎo)體材料軍工動力電池智能汽車新能源整車創(chuàng)新藥新材料智能電網(wǎng)硅料硅片20.631.530.020.233.920.521.120.321.421.726.8.160.200.350.280.520.0.460.770.550.620.60 0.74 0.87 1.24 1.20 0.89 65%58%54%54%52%48%44%44%37%34%34%29%25%22%19%18%11%-15%手率：普遍下跌，數(shù)據(jù)要素相對抗跌類別指數(shù)名稱本周漲跌幅近1月漲跌幅PS(TTM)三年分位PE(TTM)三年分位換手率(MA5)五年分位近一周變化汽車無人駕駛熱管理--3.0%-4.8%-8.1%-10.2%1.20.0%36.62.9%10.1%0.051.614.4%39.624.6%3.7%0.05新能源發(fā)電TOPcon電池特高壓光伏屋頂HJT電池儲能光伏逆變器-3.3%-3.8%-4.9%-5.4%-6.0%-10.7%-8.8%-9.7%-8.4%-12.2%-3.3%-3.8%-4.9%-5.4%-6.0%-6.0%-1-6.0%1.60.1%21.20.0%1.6%0.011.53.6%17.00.1%0.1%-0.071.50.1%13.70.1%2.7%0.081.50.0%12.00.0%2.3%0.162.00.0%25.60.0%0.5%-0.033.12.9%24.20.0%4.5%0.26半導(dǎo)體EDA半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備IGBT第三代半導(dǎo)體先進(jìn)封裝半導(dǎo)體材料-3.2%-4.1%-4.5%-4.9%-5.2%-5.7%-7.7%-12.5%-11.5%-11.5%-17.6%--3.2%-4.1%-4.5%-4.9%-5.2%-5.7%1.521.1%34.256.1%56.1%26.6%0.086.55.6%41.60.3%11.2%%25.80.0%5.6%0.013.70.0%71.1 41.0%3.3%0.101.617.4%57.973.8%73.8%13.4%%32.00.0%2.0%0.07新消費(fèi)預(yù)制菜CRO醫(yī)美培育鉆石-0.5%-2.4%0.90.4%52.7558.6%81.1%0.80-2.9%-2.9%-6.2%-13.1%-3.1%-4.1-4.1%--6.0%5.56.0%23.57.1%48.2%-0.353.53.7%43.74.0%13.7%0.043.719.5%42.121.7%3.1%-0.09科技數(shù)字貨幣AIGC東數(shù)西算元宇宙數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)信創(chuàng)云計(jì)算機(jī)器視覺華為鴻蒙工業(yè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)6G-0.8%0.3%2.97.7%151.4661.6%66.5%0.30-1.4%-2.3%-3.4%-3.6%-4.5%-4.6%-7.0%-7.1%-10.8%-8.0%-9.4%-8.4%-1.4%-2.3%-3.4%-3.6%-4.5%-4.6%-4.6%-4.8%-4.9%-10.8%-9.0%-4.6%-4.8%-4.9%-5.3%-1-5.3%1.86.2%0.00.0%68.9%0.862.779.8%91.881.2%80.8%0.882.218.8%47.982.0%14.9%0.051.925.2 38.3%32.3%0.152.210.6%35.547.0%0.192.1 35.1%65.0554.0%73.7%0.522.946.246.2%34.69.0%0.151.425.7%235.035.5%35.5%48.9%0.581.1 34.4%21.8 36.5%72.4%0.262.335.22.5%-0.08其他中字頭央企大飛機(jī)機(jī)器人-5.1%--5.1%-8.0%-9.2%-3.6%--4.7%--5.9%0.786.7%10.9665.8%67.9%0.082.80.4%46.40.5%0.9%-0.011.513.6%28.035.0%35.0%47.8%0.10全球主要股指表現(xiàn)：納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)、英國富時100漲幅居前指數(shù)本周漲跌幅近1月漲跌幅近3月漲跌幅PE(TTM)3年分位5年分位10年分位標(biāo)普500道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)上證指數(shù)創(chuàng)業(yè)板指英國富時100德國DAX日經(jīng)225