2023年上半年北京產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)市場回顧與展望（英文版）

Semi-annual

|

BusinessPark|

Beijing

|

14July

2023No

significant

demand

recovery

inBeijing's

BP

marketInsights

&recommendationsIn

H12023,there

was

no

significant

recovery

in

Beijing's

BPmarket.

The

main

new

demand

wasconcentrated

in

relatively

cheaper

submarkets,

while

demand

in

the

coreareas

continued

tobesubdued.

Rents

continued

to

drop

in

H1,falling

by

2.6%.

In

H12023,anew

project

located

inShangdi

entered

the

market.

The

vacancy

ratehas

risen

continuously

since

H12022to

17.9%,affected

by

new

supply

as

well

astepid

demand.Landlords:

Asa

concentration

ofnew

projects

will

enter

the

market

in

H2,which

will

likely

intensifycompetition,

we

recommend

landlords

adjust

rents

promptly

and

improve

their

service

offerings

inresponsetocapture

themarket’shighest

qualitytenants

that

can

toleratehighercost

performance.Tenants:

We

recommend

tenants

focus

onthe

quality

ofnew

supply

coming

online

and

theincentives

that

can

be

offered

by

the

government

and

landlords,

taking

advantage

ofthis

rentaladjustment

period

to

maketimely

officespace

upgrades

and

adjustments.2023–25H1

2023Full

Year2023

AnnualAverageThe

impact

ofthe

IT

companies

adjustingtheir

footprints

was

mitigated

in

H1,butoverall

demand

did

not

showa

significantrebound.-231

sq

m168,000

sq

m

260,000

sq

mDemandSupplyThe

Beijing

Satellite

Factory

Technology

Parkentered

the

market

in

Q2,

and

aconcentration

ofnew

projects

are

scheduledtoenter

the

market

in

H2.17,000

sq

m1,248,000

sq

m

695,000

sq

mAnnualAverageHOH

/H1

2023YOY/End2023Growth

2023-25/End2025-2.6%-2.8%-1.8%Rents

continued

their

declining

trend.

Weexpect

rents

will

remain

under

pressure

inH2due

tothe

influence

ofnew

supply.RentRMB

122.0RMB

121.8RMB

118.5(psm

per

month)

(psm

per

month)

(psm

per

month)1.4pp17.9%3.8pp20.4%1.4pp20.7%Due

totepid

new

demand,

the

vacancy

ratecontinued

torise

to

17.9%.VacancySource:Colliers1Major

demand

drivers,

H120232023-25

New

supply

by

SubmarketFengtai,

3%Internet

TechnologyOthers,30%BeiqingRoad,34%ManufacturingHealthcareShangdi,33%Submarket

Overview,

H1

2023Total

Stock(‘000sqm)Rent

(RMB

per

sqm

per

month)

Vacancy

Rate

(%)2023H1:

14,033

2023H1:

122.02023H1:

17.9%Wangjing-jiuxianqiao2023

Q12023

Q21,5891,584164.9162.316.3%17.9%Beiqing

Road2023

Q12023

Q23,3303,285120.7120.410.8%10.7%Sihui2023

Q12023

Q2931931116.1114.214.7%18.0%Shangdi2023

Q12023

Q22,6612,254165.4164.916.9%19.1%FengtaiBeijing

Economic-TechnologicalDevelopment

Area

(BDA)2023

Q12023

Q23,0213,021102.899.824.4%24.8%2023

Q12023

Q21,5991,59968.367.618.2%19.5%Note:

Theprojects

in

Shangdi

database

was

adjusted

in

Q2

and

thetotal

market

stockwas

reduced.2H1

2023ReviewNew

demand

concentrated

in

relatively

cheapersubmarketsNew

supply,

net

absorption

and

Vacancyrate,

2018-2025SupplyNetAbsorption?In

H1,

demand

in

the

corearea

was

light,

with

noobvious

signs

ofarebound,

and

the

main

newdemand

was

concentrated

in

the

relatively

cheapersubmarkets.

Submarkets

in

the

northern

ofthe

citycontinued

tobe

affected

bythe

spaceadjustmentsofIT

companies,

but

the

magnitude

has

narrowedcompared

to

2022.Vacancy

RateSupply/Net

absorptionVacancy

Rate(‘000

sqm)30%25%20%15%10%5%1,3001,100900700500300100-100-300??In

Q2,

a

new

project

entered

the

Shangdi

market.Thevacancy

ratein

the

Shangdi

market

did

not

risesignificantly

in

H1,

due

to

healthy

pre-leasing

ofnew

projects

and

aslowdown

in

the

magnitude

ofspace

adjustments

by

ITcompanies.0%Source:

ColliersOverall

rents

continued

their

downward

trend,with

rents

remaining

relatively

stable

in

Q1

anddecreasing

sharply

in

Q2

asdemand

did

not

showany

significant

signs

ofrecovery.

In

Q2,

rentsdecreased

2.2%QOQ

to

RMB122.0

(USD16.9)persquare

meter

per

month,

down

5.7%YOY.Market

OutlookRents

&Vacancy

Rates,

2018-2025Concentration

ofnew

supply

brings

vacancypressure

tothemarket

in

H2RentVacancy

RateRentVacancy

Rate25%?About

1.23million

square

meters

(13.24millionsquare

feet)

ofnew

projects

are

scheduled

to

enterthe

market

in

H2,mainly

concentrated

in

northernBeijingin

theShangdi

and

Beiqing

Road

submarkets.(RMB

per

sqm

per

month)1501301109020%15%10%5%?In

H2,space

adjustments

ofIT

companies

in

thenorthern

market

should

come

to

an

end,

but

at

thesametime,

the

market

is

going

to

facepressurefromnew

supply.

We

expect

the

supply

pressure

tocause

vacancy

rates

to

continue

climbing

towardsyear-end,

pressuring

rents.70500%?In

H2,the

trend

oftenants

reducing

costs

willcontinue

to

dominate

the

market.

We

recommendthat

landlords

adjust

their

leasing

strategies

inadvance,

improving

the

quality

oftheir

projects

andservices

to

capture

quality

tenants

with

higher

costperformance.Source:

Colliers3For

further

information,

please

contact:Judy

LiManaging

Director

|

Beijing+8610

85411003Judy.Li@MingLuDirector|Research

|

Beijing+8610

85181633Ming.Lu@Cassie

GaoManager|

Research

|Beijing+86108541

1184Cassie.Gao@Danni

ZhaoSeniorAnalyst|

Research

|

Beijing+86108541

1187Danni.Zhao@About

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