鐵礦石9月月報(bào)：供需格局緊平衡盤(pán)面估值存支撐-20230831-銀河期貨

大大宗商品研究所告年08月31日鐵礦石9月月報(bào)究員：丁祖超咨詢(xún)證號(hào)：Z0018259021-65789252兇dingzuchao_qh@chinasto供需格局緊平衡，盤(pán)面估值存支撐與交易策略：鐵礦價(jià)格形成趨勢(shì)性下跌，反而現(xiàn)貨供需偏緊對(duì)價(jià)格會(huì)形成較強(qiáng)的支撐。調(diào)，但趨勢(shì)性下跌很難看到，整體仍以偏多思路對(duì)待。大大宗商品研究所告鐵礦市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)回顧8月份鐵礦價(jià)格大幅上漲，自底部720左右上漲至850左右，最大漲幅達(dá)到18%，市26023020017014011080502023202220212020201920181/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/120212020201920181/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/120232022202120202019201850040030020010001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/10001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1低品價(jià)差圖6：進(jìn)口鐵礦港口分品種占比200000200-100螺紋盤(pán)面利潤(rùn)卡粉-PB粉PB粉-超特粉0400020002020-082021-022021-082022-022022-082023-022023-08鐵精粉占比粉礦占比%%2017-012018-012019-012020-012021-012022-012023-01慢。圖8：最優(yōu)交割品-01合約基差D0D04/18圖9：最優(yōu)交割品-05合約基差圖10：跨期1/5價(jià)差0礦供需分析假設(shè)全年發(fā)運(yùn)目標(biāo)完成區(qū)間中值3.28億噸，下半年發(fā)運(yùn)量在16640萬(wàn)噸，同比回落量同比增長(zhǎng)6%(830萬(wàn)噸)，VALE全年產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)預(yù)計(jì)完成區(qū)間下沿3.1億噸，下半年產(chǎn)量在BHP7271.7萬(wàn)噸，環(huán)比上漲9.9%，F(xiàn)MGFMG環(huán)比增加5%，同比增加3%。二季度導(dǎo)目標(biāo)為1.92-1.97億噸，其中鐵橋項(xiàng)目預(yù)計(jì)將貢獻(xiàn)約700萬(wàn)噸。2023年上半年發(fā)運(yùn)量達(dá)30噸(鋼聯(lián)口徑增量超900萬(wàn)噸)，但上半年發(fā)往中國(guó)比例明顯提升。上半年四大礦全球產(chǎn)量遠(yuǎn)高于過(guò)去幾年均值400萬(wàn)噸水平。上半年VALE產(chǎn)量同比增加830萬(wàn)噸，但全球發(fā)運(yùn)量半年庫(kù)存增量(VALE產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)仍維持在3.1-3.2億噸)。2018年周期大概在5年。2018年四大礦鐵量山成本增加因素，長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看全球鐵礦供應(yīng)難有較大增量。期2855萬(wàn)噸增加2.3%/2380萬(wàn)噸，澳巴鐵礦全球發(fā)運(yùn)量周度均值2452萬(wàn)噸，同比增長(zhǎng)2.9%，其中澳洲周度發(fā)運(yùn)均值1785萬(wàn)噸(19港口)，同比增長(zhǎng)1.9%，巴西鐵礦周度發(fā)運(yùn)P圖12：澳巴鐵礦全球發(fā)運(yùn)量1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1202320222021202020192018290027002500230021001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1圖14：巴西鐵礦全球發(fā)運(yùn)量1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/120202019201801/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1VALE圖16：力拓全球發(fā)運(yùn)量2023202220212020201920182023202220212020201920188007006005004003002001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/100500050004504001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1820232022202120202019201820232022202120202019201800004504001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/14103803503202902602301/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1比去年同期473萬(wàn)噸回落0.6%/100萬(wàn)噸，6月份以來(lái)非主流礦發(fā)運(yùn)持續(xù)修復(fù)，同比持續(xù)處于偏高位置，但全年非主周度加較多?？傮w微景下非主流礦難有較大增量。/18圖20：非四大礦全球發(fā)運(yùn)量1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/12023202220212020201920181/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1圖22：巴西非主流礦全球發(fā)運(yùn)量0181/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/120232022202120202019201822020001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1年上半年印度進(jìn)口鐵礦月度均值超350萬(wàn)噸，19年至今其他時(shí)間進(jìn)口印度鐵礦月度均值不到150萬(wàn)噸(剔除2022年上調(diào)關(guān)稅影響)。按照以往過(guò)去幾年進(jìn)口年下半年至2021年上半年處于國(guó)內(nèi)需求較好而主流四大礦受突發(fā)事件和礦18。計(jì)很難超過(guò)1500萬(wàn)噸。同時(shí)雖然1-7月份國(guó)內(nèi)進(jìn)口鐵礦同比增加4300萬(wàn)噸，但當(dāng)前海外計(jì)較快回升分流國(guó)內(nèi)鐵礦高供應(yīng)，因此2023全年國(guó)內(nèi)鐵礦總供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)增量在2500萬(wàn)噸，四季度國(guó)內(nèi)進(jìn)口鐵礦預(yù)計(jì)同比下降超過(guò)1800萬(wàn)噸。202320222021202020192018115001100010500100009500900085008000750070001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/120232022202120202019201875007000650060005500500045001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1圖26：印度鐵礦進(jìn)口數(shù)量2800250022007002023202220212020 0192018/112/12023202220212020201920180000000000000001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/12/1 3/14/1 5/16/1 7/18/1 9/110/1國(guó)內(nèi)精粉產(chǎn)量難以較快釋放，基石計(jì)劃加快產(chǎn)能投放，但原有產(chǎn)能利用率下降。2023年1-7月份國(guó)內(nèi)鐵精粉產(chǎn)量15487萬(wàn)噸，同比增長(zhǎng)0.4%/60萬(wàn)噸(大樣本和小樣本數(shù)據(jù)不增量有限的背景下，國(guó)內(nèi)鐵礦供應(yīng)緊平衡預(yù)計(jì)貫穿全年。圖28：363座礦山鐵精粉產(chǎn)量20232022202120202019201825002400230022002100200000001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/15656545250484644424038202320222021202020191/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/163座礦山鐵精粉庫(kù)存圖30：266座礦山鐵精粉產(chǎn)量45040035030025020000202320222021202020191/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/14644424086420202320222021202020191/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/12021年高峰可能跟上半年鋼廠高利潤(rùn)大幅增產(chǎn)有了制造業(yè)折舊、地產(chǎn)拆遷等廢鋼回收因素有關(guān)外，可能還有2021年國(guó)內(nèi)廢鋼日耗除了與經(jīng)濟(jì)較快恢復(fù)下廢鋼供應(yīng)好轉(zhuǎn)外，鋼廠低利潤(rùn)或粗鋼限產(chǎn)都會(huì)對(duì)廢鋼的消耗量產(chǎn)生較大影響。本55鋼廠廢鋼日耗圖32：255鋼廠廢鋼庫(kù)存00040020212020201920181/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/12020201920189008007006005004003001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1圖33：89鋼廠短流程廢鋼日耗圖34：255鋼廠廢鋼到貨量2023202220212020201920182520501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1202320222021202020192018000004002001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1續(xù)低位運(yùn)行工”。中央下限規(guī)模(17年后商品房期房銷(xiāo)售開(kāi)始明顯超過(guò)凈地產(chǎn)投資，大量已銷(xiāo)售期房實(shí)質(zhì)上停緩圖36：商品房銷(xiāo)售面積202220212020201920183000025000200000050002/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/12023202220212020201920182400021000000900060002/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1圖38：國(guó)內(nèi)鐵礦供需平衡分析202320222021202020192018145001350012500115001050095001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1應(yīng)量國(guó)內(nèi)鐵礦總需求量02019/012019/102020/072021/042022/012022/102023/07，全年用鋼需求回落超1600萬(wàn)噸，而下半年小幅回落200萬(wàn)噸(由于預(yù)售后緩?fù)?0萬(wàn)噸。從國(guó)內(nèi)需求高頻數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看，三季度以來(lái)鐵元素表需周度均值在2004萬(wàn)噸，同比增長(zhǎng)徑建材周度表需均值在開(kāi)工持續(xù)回落，但二季度在地產(chǎn)新開(kāi)工大幅回落背景下建材表需回落400萬(wàn)噸，一季度建是市場(chǎng)需警惕地產(chǎn)端預(yù)期好暖下建材市場(chǎng)的供需錯(cuò)配對(duì)價(jià)格的影響。023年下半年國(guó)內(nèi)鐵元素終端需求測(cè)算國(guó)內(nèi)需求用鋼占比/20222022用鋼增量2023E用鋼增量2023Q12023Q2E2023H1E2023H2地產(chǎn)2%-20%-7800-1600-500-900-140000基建20%%4009000機(jī)械22%9004%7000040000汽車(chē)%-1003060-10家電%3%2040造船%%306040其他00%000合計(jì)%-6230800804600圖40：鐵元素表觀需求20232022202120202019201826025024023022021020001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/12023202220212020201920182600230020001700140011008005001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/12019201800001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/102019201800001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1快分流國(guó)內(nèi)鐵礦高供應(yīng)。000000000000023022021020 12023202220212020201920181/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 3/14/1 16/1 18/1 110/1庫(kù)存預(yù)計(jì)累庫(kù)不及預(yù)期礦發(fā)運(yùn)量-上半年日均發(fā)運(yùn)量)*上半年天數(shù))預(yù)期難以對(duì)下半年價(jià)格形成趨勢(shì)性下跌，反而現(xiàn)貨供需的偏緊在價(jià)格低位時(shí)會(huì)形成較強(qiáng)的支圖46：進(jìn)口鐵礦貿(mào)易礦總庫(kù)存20232022202120202019201817000160001500014000130001200011000100001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1814/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1圖48：進(jìn)口鐵礦鋼廠總庫(kù)存202320222021202020192018340032003000280026002400220020001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/120232022202120202019201860005500500045004000350030001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1