2013.12月級英語預(yù)測6

PartⅢReadingComprehension(40minutes)SectionB

Directions:Inthissection,youaregoingtoreadapassagewithtenstatementsattachedtoit.Eachstatementcontainsinformationgiveninoneoftheparagraphs.Identifytheparagraphfromwhichtheinformationisderived.Youmaychooseaparagraphmorethanonce.Eachparagraphismarkedwithaletter.AnswerthequestionsbymarkingthecorrespondingletteronAnswerSheet2.

IntotheUnknown

Theworldhasneverseenpopulationageingbefore.Canitcope?

[A]Untiltheearly1990snobodymuchthoughtaboutwholepopulationsgettingolder.TheUNhadtheforesighttoconvenea“worldassemblyonageing”backin1982,butthatcameandwent.By1994theWorldBankhadnoticedthatsomethingbigwashappening.Inareportentitled“AvertingtheOldAgeCrisis”,itarguedthatpensionarrangementsinmostcountrieswereunsustainable.

[B]Forthenexttenyearsasuccessionofbooks,mainlybyAmericans,soundedthealarm.TheyhadtitleslikeYoungOld,GrayDawnandTheComingGenerationalStorm,andtheirmessagewasblunt:health-caresystemswereheadingfortherocks,pensionersweretakingyoungpeopletothecleaners,andsoontherewouldbeintergenerationalwarfare.

[C]Sincethenthedebatehasbecomelessemotional,notleastbecausealotmoreisknownaboutthesubject.Books,conferencesandresearchpapershavemultiplied.InternationalorganisationssuchastheOECDandtheEUissueregularreports.Populationageingisoneveryagenda,fromG8economicconferencestoNATOsummits.TheWorldEconomicForumplanstoconsiderthefutureofpensionsandhealthcareatitsprestigiousDavosconferenceearlynextyear.Themedia,includingthisnewspaper,aregivingthesubjectextensivecoverage.

[D]Whetherallthatattentionhastranslatedintosufficientactionisanotherquestion.Governmentsinrichcountriesnowacceptthattheirpensionandhealth-carepromiseswillsoonbecomeunaffordable,andmanyofthemhaveembarkedonreforms,butsofaronlytimidly.Thatisnotsurprising:politicianswithaneyeonthenextelectionwillhardlyrushtointroduceunpopularmeasuresthatmaynotbearfruitforyears,perhapsdecades.

[E]Theoutlineofthechangesneededisclear.Toavoidfisca(財政的）meltdown,publicpensionsandhealth-careprovisionwillhavetobereinedbackseverelyandtaxesmayhavetogoup.Byfarthemosteffectivemethodtorestrainpensionspendingistogivepeopletheopportunitytoworklonger,becauseitincreasestaxrevenuesandreducesspendingonpensionsatthesametime.Itmayevenkeepthemalivelonger.JohnRother,theAARP’sheadofpolicyandstrategy,pointstostudiesshowingthatotherthingsbeingequal,peoplewhoremainatworkhavelowerdeathratesthantheirretiredpeers.

[F]Youngerpeopletodaymostlyacceptthattheywillhavetoworkforlongerandthattheirpensionswillbelessgenerous.Employersstillneedtobepersuadedthatolderworkersareworthholdingonto.Thatmaybebecausetheyhavehadplentyofyoungeronestochoosefrom,partlythankstothepost-warbaby-boomandpartlybecauseoverthepastfewdecadesmanymorewomenhaveenteredthelabourforce,increasingemployers’choice.Butthereservoirofwomenableandwillingtotakeuppaidworkisrunninglow,andthebaby-boomersaregoinggrey.

[G]Inmanycountriesimmigrantshavebeenfillingsuchgapsinthelabourforceashavealreadyemerged(andrememberthattherealshortageisstillaroundtenyearsoff).Immigrationinthedevelopedworldisthehighestithaseverbeen,anditismakingausefuldifference.Instill-fertileAmericaitcurrentlyaccountsforabout40%oftotalpopulationgrowth,andinfast-ageingwesternEuropeforabout90%.

[H]Onthefaceofit,itseemstheperfectsolution.Manydevelopingcountrieshavelotsofyoungpeopleinneedofjobs;manyrichcountriesneedhelpinghandsthatwillboosttaxrevenuesandkeepupeconomicgrowth.Butoverthenextfewdecadeslabourforcesinrichcountriesaresettoshrinksomuchthatinflowsofimmigrantswouldhavetoincreaseenormouslytocompensate:toatleasttwicetheircurrentsizeinwesternEurope’smostyouthfulcountries,andthreetimesintheolderones.Japanwouldneedalargemultipleofthefewimmigrantsithasatpresent.Publicopinionpollsshowthatpeopleinmostrichcountriesalreadythinkthatimmigrationistoohigh.Furtherbigincreaseswouldbepoliticallyunfeasible.

[I]Totackletheproblemofageingpopulationsatitsroot,“old”countrieswouldhavetorejuvenate(使年輕)themselvesbyhavingmoreoftheirownchildren.Anumberofthemhavetried,somemoresuccessfullythan

others.Butitisnotasimplematterofofferingfinancialincentivesorprovidingmorechildcare.Modernurbanlifeinrichcountriesisnotwelladaptedtolargefamilies.Womenfindithardtocombinefamilyandcareer.Theyoftencompromisebyhavingjustonechild.

[J]Andiffertilityinageingcountriesdoesnotpickup?Itwillnotbetheendoftheworld,atleastnotforquiteawhileyet,buttheworldwillslowlybecomeadifferentplace.Oldersocietiesmaybelessinnovativeandmorestronglydisinclinedtotakerisksthanyoungerones.By2025atthelatest,abouthalfthevotersinAmericaandmostofthoseinwesternEuropeancountrieswillbeover50—andolderpeopleturnouttovoteinmuchgreaternumberthanyoungerones.Academicstudieshavefoundnoevidencesofarthatoldervotershaveusedtheirpowerattheballotboxtopushforpoliciesthatspecificallybenefitthem,thoughifinfuturetherearemanymoreofthemtheymightstartdoingso.

[K]Noristhereanysignoftheintergenerationalwarfarepredictedinthe1990s.Afterall,olderpeoplethemselvesmostlyhavefamilies.Inarecentstudyofparentsandgrown-upchildrenin11Europeancountries,KarstenHankofMannheimUniversityfoundthat85%ofthemlivedwithin25kmofeachotherandthemajorityofthemwereintouchatleastonceaweek.

[L]Evenso,theshiftinthecentreofgravitytoolderagegroupsisboundtohaveaprofoundeffectonsocieties,notjusteconomicallyandpoliticallybutinallsortsofotherwaystoo.RichardJacksonandNeilHoweofAmerica’sCSIS,inathoughtfulbookcalledTheGrayingoftheGreatPowers,arguethat,amongotherthings,theageingofthedevelopedcountrieswillhaveanumberofserioussecurityimplications.

[M]Forexample,theshortageofyoungadultsislikelytomakecountriesmorereluctanttocommitthefewtheyhavetomilitaryservice.Inthedecadesto2050,Americawillfinditselfplayinganever-increasingroleinthedevelopedworld’sdefenceeffort.BecauseAmerica’spopulationwillstillbegrowingwhenthatofmostotherdevelopedcountriesisshrinking,Americawillbetheonlydevelopedcountrythatstillmattersgeopoliticallyi地緣政治上）.

Askmein2020

[N]Thereislittlethatcanbedonetostoppopulationageing,sotheworldwillhavetolivewithit.Butsomeoftheconsequencescanbealleviated.Manyexpertsnowbelievethatgiventherightpolicies,theeffects,thoughgrave,neednotbecatastrophic.Mostcountrieshaverecognisedtheneedtodosomethingandarebeginningtoact.

[O]Buteventhenthereisnoguaranteethattheireffortswillwork.Whatishappeningnowishistoricallyunprecedented.RonaldLee,directoroftheCentreontheEconomicsandDemographyofAgeingattheUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,putsitbrieflyandclearly:“Wedon’treallyknowwhatpopulationageingwillbelike,becausenobodyhasdoneityet.”

46.Employersshouldrealiseitisimportanttokeepolderworkersintheworkforce.

47.ArecentstudyfoundthatmostoldpeopleinsomeEuropeancountrieshadregularweeklycontactwiththeiradultchildren.

48.Fewgovernmentsinrichcountrieshavelaunchedboldreformstotackletheproblemofpopulationageing.

49.Inareportpublishedsome20yearsago,thesustainabilityofoldagepensionsystemsinmostcountrieswascalledintodoubt.

50.Countriesthathaveashortageofyoungadultswillbelesswillingtosendthemtowar.

51.One-childfamiliesaremorecommoninageingsocietiesduetothestressofurbanlifeandthedifficultiesofbalancingfamilyandcareer.

52.Aseriesofbooks,mostlyauthoredbyAmericans,warnedofconflictsbetweentheolderandyoungergenerations.

53.Comparedwithyoungerones,oldersocietiestendtobelessinnovativeandtakefewerrisks.

54.Thebestsolutiontothepensioncrisisistopostponetheretirementage.

55.Immigrationasameanstoboosttheshrinkinglabourforcemaymeetwithresistanceinsomerichcountries.PartⅣTranslation(30minutes)Directions:Forthispart,youareallowed30minutestotranslateapassagefromChineseintoEnglish.YoushouldwriteyouransweronAnswerSheet2.

中國新年是中國最重要的傳統(tǒng)節(jié)日，在中國也被稱為春節(jié)。新年的慶祝活動從除夕開始一直延續(xù)到元宵節(jié)(theLanternFestival)，即從農(nóng)歷(lunarcalendar)最后一個月的最后一天至新年第一個月的第十五天。各地歡度春節(jié)的習(xí)俗和傳統(tǒng)有很大差異，但通常每個家庭都會在除夕夜團聚，一起吃年夜飯。為驅(qū)厄運、迎好運，家家戶戶都會進行大掃除。人們還會在門上粘貼紅色的對聯(lián)(couplets)，對聯(lián)的主題為健康、發(fā)財和好運。其他的活動還有放鞭炮、發(fā)紅包和探親訪友等。PartⅡListeningComprehensionSectionC

26.arelikelyto有可能

27.astonishing使人吃驚的，驚人的

28.conventional傳統(tǒng)的，習(xí)慣的

29.accordingto根據(jù)，按照

30.crucial至關(guān)重要的

31.examination調(diào)查；考試

32.varied有差異，不同

33.interpersonal人與人之間的，人際的

34.inthecaseof至于，就來說

35.counterparts對應(yīng)的人或物SectionB

46.[F]。題干意為，雇主們應(yīng)該意識到留住老齡員工很重要。注意抓住題干中的關(guān)鍵詞employers和olderworkers。文章段落中，談及雇主和老齡員工關(guān)系的內(nèi)容在[F]段出現(xiàn)，該段第二句提到，我們?nèi)孕枵f服雇主們繼續(xù)雇用老齡員工是值得的。由此可知，題干是對原文的同義轉(zhuǎn)述，故答案為[F]。

47.[K]。題干意為，最近的一項研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，在一些歐洲國家，大多數(shù)的老年人每周都會聯(lián)系他們的成年子女。注意抓住題干中的關(guān)鍵詞arecentstudy,Europeancountries和adultchildren。文章段落中，有關(guān)歐洲國家老人及其成年子女的研究的內(nèi)容在[K]段出現(xiàn)，該段第三句提到，在最近的一項關(guān)于11個歐洲國家的父母及其

成年子女的研究中，……他們中的大多數(shù)至少每周都會聯(lián)系一次。由此可知，題干是對原文的同義轉(zhuǎn)述，故答案為[K]。題干中的adultchildren對應(yīng)原文中的grown-upchildren，題干中的hadregularweeklycontact對應(yīng)原文中的wereintouchatleastonceaweek，同時還用someEuropeancountries替代了原文中的11Europeancountries。

48.[D]。題干意為，很少有發(fā)達國家的政府開展大膽的改革去解決人口老齡化的問題。注意抓住題干中的關(guān)鍵詞governmentsinrichcountries和reforms。文章段落中，談及發(fā)達國家政府和改革的內(nèi)容在[D]段出現(xiàn)，該段第二句提到，發(fā)達國家的政府已經(jīng)承認(rèn)自己很快就會無法負擔(dān)其退休金，無法兌現(xiàn)醫(yī)療保障承諾，許多國家也已開始著手改革，但迄今為止都是畏首畏尾的改革。由此可知，題干是對原文的同義轉(zhuǎn)述，故答

案為[D]。

49.[A]。題干意為，大概20年前發(fā)表的一份報告中指出，大多數(shù)國家的養(yǎng)老金系統(tǒng)的可持續(xù)性受到質(zhì)疑。注意抓住題干中的關(guān)鍵詞20yearsago,areport和oldagepension。文章段落中，談及質(zhì)疑養(yǎng)老金報告的內(nèi)容在文章第一段出現(xiàn)，該段最后兩句中提到，到1994年，……它在一份題為“避免老齡化危機”的報告中指出，大多數(shù)國家的養(yǎng)老金計劃無法維持下去。由此可知，題干是對原文的同義轉(zhuǎn)述，故答案為[A]。此處需要注意的是題干提到了20yearsago，數(shù)字是瀏覽信息時需要注意的重要信息，此處為時間概念，快速瀏覽涉及時間的段落，可較快地做出解答。

50.[M]。題干意為，缺少年輕人的國家比較不愿意將年輕人送往戰(zhàn)場。注意抓住題干中的關(guān)鍵詞ashortageofyoungadults和war。文章段落中，談及缺少年輕人的內(nèi)容在[M]段出現(xiàn)，該段首句提到，缺少年輕人可能會使國家不愿意將僅有的年輕人送去服兵役。由此可知，題干是對原文的同義轉(zhuǎn)述，故答案為[M]。題干中的lesswilling和原文中reluctant相對應(yīng)。

51.[I]。題干意為，由于城市生活的壓力和平衡家庭與工作的困難，獨生子女家庭在老齡化社會中變得更為普遍。注意抓住題干中的關(guān)鍵詞one-childfamilies,urbanlife和familyandcareer。文章段落中，談及獨生子女家庭、城市生活以及家庭和工作的內(nèi)容在[I]段出現(xiàn)，該段最后三句提到，發(fā)達國家的現(xiàn)代都市生活并不適合大家庭。女性發(fā)現(xiàn)她們很難平衡家庭和工作的關(guān)系。她們往往采用折中的方法，即只生一個孩子。由此可知，題干是對原文內(nèi)容的概括，屬于同義轉(zhuǎn)述的范疇，故答案為[I]。

52.[B]。題干意為，主要由美國人撰寫的一系列圖書對老一輩和年輕一代將發(fā)生沖突提出了警告。注意抓住題干中的關(guān)鍵詞aseriesofbooks,mostlyauthoredbyAmericans和warned。文章段落中，談及美國人的著作的內(nèi)容在[B]段出現(xiàn)，該段第一句提到，主要由美國人撰寫的一系列圖書給全世界敲響了警鐘。文章之后接著說明了這些著作所闡述的問題：在退休金問題上新老兩代人的沖突。由此可見，題干對原文做了同義改寫，故答案為[B]。題干中的warned和原文中的soundedthealarm對應(yīng)。

53.[J]。題干意為，與年輕的社會相比，老齡化社會傾向于缺乏創(chuàng)新精神，較少去冒險。注意抓住題干中的關(guān)鍵詞compared,innovative和risks。文章段落中，對兩代人在創(chuàng)新精神和冒險方面做對比的內(nèi)容在[J]段出現(xiàn)，該段第三句提到，與年輕的社會相比，老齡化社會可能會缺乏創(chuàng)新精神，也不愿意冒險。由此可知，答案為[J]。題干中的takefewerrisks對應(yīng)原文中的disinclinedtotakerisks。

54.[E]。題干意為，解決養(yǎng)老金危機的最好方法是推遲退休年齡。注意抓住題干中的關(guān)鍵詞solution,pensioncrisis和retirementage。文章段落中，談及解決養(yǎng)老金危機方法的內(nèi)容在[E]段出現(xiàn)，該段第三句提到，到目前為止，抑制養(yǎng)老金支出最有效的方法是延長人們的工作年限……，由此可知，題干是對原文的同義改寫，即“延長工作年限”改寫為“推遲退休年齡”，故答案為[E]。題干中的thebestsolution對應(yīng)原文中的themosteffectivemethod。

55.[H]。題干意為，在一些發(fā)達國家，把移民當(dāng)做改善勞動力短缺狀況的一種手段可能會遭遇抵制。注意抓住題干中的關(guān)鍵詞immigration,shrinkinglabourforce和resistance。文章段落中，談及移民和勞動力短缺的有[G]段和[H]段，但談到抵制移民問題的僅有[H]段，該段最后兩句提出，民意調(diào)查顯示，多數(shù)富裕國家的人認(rèn)為移民的數(shù)量已經(jīng)夠多了，進一步的增長在政治上是行不通的。由此可知，題干是對原文的進一步推斷，故答案為[H]。此處需要注意，因原文段落