挖掘歐洲氫能潛力

GlobalAtlasofH2Potential

Sustainablelocationsintheworldforthegreenhydrogeneconomyoftomorrow:

technical,economicandsocialanalysesofthedevelopmentofaglobalsustainablehydrogenatlas

HYPATDiscussionPaper05/2023

MobilizingEurope’sFullHydrogenPotential:Entry-PointsforActionbytheEUandits

MemberStates

Authors:

RainerQuitzow(RIFSPotsdam),AndreaTriki(dena),JakobWachsmuth(FraunhoferISI),JoshuaFragosoGarcia(FraunhoferISI),NiklasKramer(RIFSPotsdam),BenjaminLux

(FraunhoferISI),AlmudenaNunez(RIFSPotsdam)

fraunhof

HYPATDiscussionPaper05/2023

MobilizingEurope’sFullHydrogenPotential:Entry-PointsforActionbytheEUanditsMemberStates

Funding

TheHYPAT–H2POTENTIALATLAS–projectisfundedbytheGermanFederalMinistryofEducationandResearchBMBFaspartofthe"HydrogenRepublicofGermany"ideascompetitioninthebasicresearchmoduleongreenhydrogen.Theprojectrunsforaperiodofthreeyears,March2021-February2024.

ProjectLead

Prof.Dr.MartinWietschel

FraunhoferInstituteforSystemsandInnovationResearchISI

BreslauerStr.48,76139Karlsruhe,Germany

martin.wietschel@isi.fraunhofer.de

ProjectWebsite

https://hypat.de/hypat-en/

RecommendedCitation

Quitzow,R.;Triki,A.;Wachsmuth,J.;FragosoGarcia,J.;Kramer,N.;Lux,B:;Nunez,A.(2023):MobilizingEurope’sFullHydrogenPotential:Entry-PointsforActionbytheEUanditsMemberStates.HYPAT

DiscussionPaperNo5/2023.Karlsruhe:FraunhoferISI(Ed.)

Published

Date

Version

Amendment

September2023

01

Disclaimer

ThisdiscussionpaperwaspreparedbythenamedauthorsoftheHyPatconsortium.TheanalysisdoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheHyPatconsortiumorthefundingagency.ItscontentswerecreatedintheprojectindependentlyoftheGermanFederalMinistryofEducationandResearch.

Thepublicationincludingallitspartsisprotectedbycopyright.

Theinformationwascompiledtothebestofourknowledgeinaccordancewiththeprinciplesofgood

scientificpractice.Theauthorsassumethattheinformationinthisreportiscorrect,completeandup-to-date,butdonotacceptanyliabilityforanyerrors,explicitorimplicit.

Acknowledgements

TheauthorteamwouldliketothankthemembersoftheHYPATconsortiumwhohelpedimprovethe

qualityoftheworkingpaperbyprovidingtheirvaluablecommentstoapreviousdraftofthepaper.ThisincludesFriederikeAltgelt(dena),VasiliosAnatolitis(FraunhoferISI),NataliaPieton(FraunhoferIEG),EvaSchmid(dena),ZarahThiel(Ruhr-Universit?tBochum),MartinWietschel(FraunhoferISI).

HYPATWorkingPaper05/2023

MobilizingEurope’sFullHydrogenPotential:Entry-PointsforActionbytheEUanditsMemberStates

TableofContents

ExecutiveSummary 4

Introduction 8

1MeetingEuropeanhydrogendemandwithdomesticsupply:

potentialsandmismatches 8

1.1EstimatingEuropeanhydrogensupplyanddemand:anaggregateperspective 9

1.2DivergingrenewablepotentialacrossEurope:highsurplusvs.deficitcountries 11

1.3Themismatchbetweenrenewablehydrogenambitionsandpotential:aproblem

forEurope’shydrogenramp-up? 13

2EUhydrogenpolicyandgovernance:thestate-of-playandkey

challenges 18

2.1TheEUhydrogenstrategyandgovernance:engagingstakeholderstorealize

Europeanhydrogenambition 18

2.1.1Keytargets 18

2.1.2Engagingindustry 18

2.1.3EngagingMemberStates 19

2.1.4Engagingsub-nationaljurisdictions:theEU’shydrogenvalleys 20

2.1.5Keychallenges 21

2.2TheEU’sevolvingregulatoryframeworkforhydrogen:thestruggletoprovide

certainty 22

2.2.1TheEUETSandCBAM:what’sinitforhydrogen? 22

2.2.2Definingrenewablehydrogen 22

2.2.3Creatingdemandforrenewablehydrogen:quotasforRFNBOsandotherrenewable-based

syntheticfuels 24

2.2.4Asupportiveregulatoryenvironmentforhydrogentransportandstorage 24

2.2.5Keychallenges 24

2.3Fundingschemesinsupportofhydrogen-relatedinvestmentsintheEuropean

Union 25

2.3.1DedicatedEU-levelsupportforhydrogen-relatedinvestments 25

2.3.2Enablingfundingofhydrogen-relatedinvestmentsbytheMemberStates 26

2.3.3Keychallenges 28

3PolicyRecommendations 30

3.1RecommendationsforEU-levelaction 31

3.2RecommendationsforactionbyMemberStates 33

ListofReferences 34

Listofacronyms 36

ListofFigures&Tables 37

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ExecutiveSummary

ThispolicypapertakesstockofongoinghydrogenpolicydevelopmentsinEurope,placingparticularattentiononhowtheEuropeanUnion(EU)canmosteffectivelymobilizeitsdomestichydrogenpotential.WhilethepaperacknowledgesthathydrogenimportsfromcountriesoutsidetheEUarelikelytoplayasignificantrole,itdepartsfromthepremisethatthelarge-scalemobilizationofcost-competitivedomesticresourcesisanessentialelementforensuringtheEU’senergysecurityandindustrialleadershipinthesector.

ItbeginswithanoverviewoffuturerenewableenergydemandinEuropewithinthecontextofdecarbonization,ontheonehand,andpotentialsforrenewablehydrogenproductionandtheirdistributionacrosstheEU,ontheother.Itthencontraststhiswithhydrogen-relatedtargetsandannouncedinvestmentsintheMemberStates.Againstthisbackground,thepaperprovidesareviewofkeyEU-levelpolicies,focusingonthepromotionofhydrogenproductionanduse.Questionsrelatedtoinfrastructureforstorageandtransportofhydrogenarebeyondthescopeofthepaperandarenotconsidered.Buildingonthepolicyreview,thefinalsectionproposesfiverecommendationsforfurtherdevelopmentofEUhydrogenpolicyandfundingschemes.

Section1:MeetingEuropeanhydrogendemandwithdomesticsupply:potentialsandmismatches

Theshortreviewofrenewableenergypotentialrevealsthatmeetingfuturehydrogendemandposessignificantchallengesaswellaskeytrade-offsbetweenintensifyingandacceleratingrenewableenergydeployment,ontheonehand,andincreasingdependenceonfuturehydrogenimports,ontheother.Againstthisbackground,prioritizingtheuseofhydrogeninhard-to-electrifysectorshasclearbenefits.

Thatsaid,thereissignificantrenewableenergypotentialwithinEuropethatcouldbemobilizedtomeetalargeshareofdomestichydrogendemand.However,thispotentialisnotonlyspreadunevenlyacrosscountries.Thereisalsoasignificantmismatchbetweenthosecountrieswithsignificantrenewableenergypotentialandthoseinvestingmostactivelyinthedevelopmentofthehydrogensector.Rather,akeyfactorindrivingpolicyambitionandrelatedprojectpipelinesisthefiscalcapacitytosupporthydrogeninvestments.Inthisvein,currenttrendsindicatethattheEUisfailingtoleverageitsfullpotentialformeetingitsambitiousrenewablehydrogentargets.Moreover,investmentsinbothhydrogenproductionanduseareleavingbehindsomeofthemostpromisingregionsintermsoflong-termpotentialtogeneratesurplusrenewableenergy.

Section2:EUhydrogenpolicyandgovernance:thestate-of-playandkeychallenges

AsubsequentreviewofEUhydrogenpolicyandgovernancerevealsthattheEU’sapproachtopromotingitshydrogensectorsuffersfromanexcessivedegreeofcomplexity.Thesimplicityofthenewtax-basedincentiveschemesundertheUSInflationReductionActrepresentsastarkcontrasttothecomplexregulatoryandadministrativelandscapeintheEU.ThisreducestheoverallattractivenessoftheEUasadestinationforinvestmentinhydrogen-relatedtechnologiesandinfrastructure.Inaddition,currentEUpolicyrisksreinforcingthebiastowardsinvestmentsinthoseMemberStatesthatcan

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offernationalfundingschemes,suchassubsidiesgrantedundertheGuidelinesonStateaidforclimate,environmentalprotectionandenergy.

EU-levelfundingschemescouldprovideacounterweighttothistrend.However,todate,thevolumeoftheEU’shydrogen-specificfundingschemesisrelativelysmallcomparedtothefundsallocatedinimportantMemberStateslikeGermanyandFrance.Moreover,todate,theInnovationFund,thelargestEU-levelschemeforallocatinghydrogen-relatedinvestment,hasfavouredhigh-capacitystates,i.e.Sweden,theNetherlands,GermanyandFinland.TheRecoveryandResilienceFacilitycurrentlyoffersthemostsubstantiveEU-levelschemeintermsoffundingvolume.However,givenitsnatureasavehicleprimarilyforchannellingdebttoMemberStates,itdoesnotsubstantivelyenhancethefiscalspaceforpursuinghydrogen-relatedinvestments.

Cohesionpolicyfundsdoofferawell-establishedvehiclethatcouldchannelsupportspecificallytoregionswithhighrenewableenergypotentialbutrelativelylowfiscalcapacity.However,fornow,regionalhydrogenvalleyinitiativesarealsoconcentratedinhigh-capacityMemberStates,indicatingthattheoverallenablingenvironmentinEasternandSoutheasternEuropeisnotyetinplacetostimulatemoreambitioushydrogen-relatedactivities.

Section3:PolicyRecommendations:EnablinghydrogeninvestmentsinMemberStatesandregionswithhighrenewableenergypotential,whilereducingregulatory

complexity

Basedonthereviewofdevelopmentsinsections1and2,thefollowingsectionproposesfivepolicyrecommendations.

Recommendation1:Scale-updedicatedEU-levelfundingforrenewablehydrogenproductionanduse

Anobviousentry-pointforcounterbalancingthecurrentbiasinfavourofrenewablehydrogeninvestmentsincountrieswithhighfiscalcapacityratherthanhighrenewableenergypotentialwouldbetheintroductionofconsolidated,large-scaleEU-levelfundingschemes,bothinsupportofhydrogenproductionanduse.Specifically,thiscouldcomeintheformoftheplannedrenewablehydrogenauctions(onthesupply-side)andCarbonContractsforDifference(CCfDs)(onthedemand-side).Thiscouldalsoincludededicatedauctionsforstructurallydisadvantagedregions.

Tobeeffective,thefundingvolumeofEU-levelschemeswouldhavetoapproachthelevelofstate-aidbeingprovidedatthenationallevel.Onewayofdoingsocouldbeviaadedicatedfund,asoriginallyenvisagedwiththeEUSovereigntyfund.Moreover,toavoidabiasinfavorofricherMemberStates,suchEU-levelschemesshouldposestrongrestrictionsoncumulationwithstateaidforthesamehydrogenprojects.Thisisparticularlycrucialwhenitcomestoauction-basedschemes.Conversely,exemptingthecumulationwithcohesionpolicyfundscouldofferanadditionalincentiveforinvestmentsinless-developedregions.

Recommendation2:Introducecross-borderrenewablehydrogenauctions

AnotheroptionforchannellinginvestmenttoMemberStatesandregionswithhighrenewableenergypotentialbutarelativelyconstrainedfiscalcapacitycouldbetheuseofcross-borderrenewablehydrogenauctions.IntheupcomingrevisionoftheEU’sGovernanceRegulation,

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whichalreadyincludestheRenewableEnergyFinancingMechanismforcross-borderrenewableelectricityfinancing,acorrespondingschemecouldbeestablishedforrenewablehydrogen.Amongotherthings,MemberStatescouldoperatecross-borderauctionswithotherEUMemberStatesinordertofulfiltheirnationalRFNBOquotas.

Recommendation3:Introducenationalrenewableelectricitytargetstoidentifypriorityareasforhydrogeninvestment

Notonlyisitcrucialthatinvestmentsarechannelledtocountrieswithhighpotentialforrenewableenergy.Butitisequallyimportantthatinvestmentsinrenewablehydrogenaccelerateintandemwithinvestmentsinrenewableenergymorebroadly.Toensurethis,theEUcouldintroduceasystemofnationalrenewableelectricitytargets,includingyearlyinterimtargets,thatarecompatiblewiththeEU’spathwaytoclimate-neutralityby2050.

Inafirststep,suchaharmonizedtargetsystemcouldremainvoluntaryandcouldbeutilizedasthebasisforgrantingexemptionsfromadditionalityrequirementsforthosecountriesthatmeetorexceedtheirinterimrenewableenergytargets.Ifsufficientlyambitious,suchtargetswouldofferamoreeffectivesafeguardthanadditionalityrequirementsaloneagainsttheriskofrenewablehydrogeninvestmentsunderminingthedecarbonizationofthepowersector.Suchanapproachwouldallowcountriesthathaveensuredthatthedecarbonizationoftheelectricitysectorremainsontracktoreduceregulatorycomplexityandboosttheirattractivenessforinvestmentsinrenewablehydrogenaswellastherelateddownstreamindustries.Atalaterstage,suchtargetscouldbemademandatoryinthecontextofafurtherrevisionoftheRenewableEnergyDirective(RED).

Recommendation4:DevelopbilateralorregionalhydrogenpartnershipsbetweenpotentialsurplusanddeficitcountriesintheEU

EU-levelcoordinationandexchangeonnationalhydrogenpolicyislimited.TheEUHydrogenEnergyNetwork,theonlyplatformtargetinginter-governmentalexchange,facilitatesonlybasicinformationexchange.Establishingbilateralorregionalhydrogenpartnershipscouldhelpdeepeninner-Europeancooperation,inparticularbetweenpotentialsurplusanddeficitcountries.Firstly,suchpartnershipscouldfacilitateknowledgeexchangeandmutuallearning.ThiscouldhelpalignnationalhydrogenstrategiesandgoalswithenhancedEUhydrogentargetsandfacilitateearlyalignmentofpositionsonEU-levelhydrogendossiersaswellastheirharmonizedtranspositionintonationallaw.ThelattermighthelpacceleratethecompletionoftheEuropeanregulatoryframeworkforthehydrogensector,whichisneededtoprovidebasicregulatorycertaintyforinvestors.Secondly,suchpartnershipscouldbeusedasthebasisforagreeingonasplitbetweenimportingandexportingcountrieswhenaccountingfortheuseRFNBOstowardsthefulfilmentofrenewabletargets.SuchagreementswouldallowMemberStateswithhighrenewableenergypotentialtocontributetotheEU-wideramp-upofhydrogen,whilealsosupportingthefulfilmentoftheirnationalquota.Thiscouldbefurtherenhancedbyintroducingcross-borderauctions,asmentionedinrecommendation2.

Recommendation5:Focussupportforhydrogenuseonhard-to-electrifysectors,inparticularincountrieswithafuturedeficitinrenewableenergygeneration.

Thecomparisonofrenewableenergypotentialswiththepotentialelectricitydemandforsupplyingenergy-intensiveindustries,aviationandthemaritimesectorhasshownthatsome

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MemberStateswillnotbeabletomeetthedemandofthesehard-to-electrifysectorsdomesticallyatreasonablehydrogenproductioncosts.Hence,theirdeficitwillincreasesubstantiallyifhydrogenisallocatedtosectorswithcheapermitigationoptions,suchasresidentialheatingandroadtransport.Inotherwords,inthesecountriesinparticularthereisaclearbenefitinfocusinghydrogenuseonhard-to-electrifysectors,asthiswilllimittheirfutureneedforhydrogenimportsandstrengthentheresilienceoftheirenergysector.

Therefore,countrieswithafuturerenewableenergydeficitshouldrestrictnationalsupportschemestothehard-to-electrifysectors.Toensurethathydrogenisallocatedtothesesectors,demand-sideschemesfocusingonenergy-intensiveindustriesandthemaritimeandaviationsectorsshouldbeprioritizedoversupply-sidesupportschemes.Alternatively,supply-sideschemescanbedesignedforuseinthehard-to-electrifysectorsbyrequiringofftakeagreementsfromthehard-to-electrifysectorsforatleastasubstantialshareoftheproduction.TheGermanH2Globalscheme,forinstance,wherethegovernmentconductsauctionsforthesupplywithrenewablehydrogenoritsderivativesaswellasitssubsequentofftake,offersasuitableframeworkforthis.Inthiscase,theauctionsforhydrogenusecouldberestrictedtoselectedend-uses.

FromanEU-levelperspective,itisalsosensibletoreduceoveralldemandforhydrogen.Thisinturnwillleadtoloweroveralldemandforrenewableenergy,therebyalleviatingtheneedtonavigatetrade-offsbetweenlarge-scaledomesticdeploymentanddependencyonimportsfromnon-EUcountries.Hence,EU-fundingshouldalsoclearlyprioritizehydrogenuseinhard-to-electrifysectorstoensurethatdomesticresourceswillbeabletomeetasignificantshareofinternaldemand.

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Introduction

Withitshydrogenstrategy,theEuropeanUnion(EU)hasidentifiedrenewablehydrogenasakeyforthedecarbonizationofso-calledhard-to-electrifysectorsaswellasamediumforstoringandtransportingenergywithinacarbon-neutralenergysystem.ItalsoaimstopositiontheEuropeanhydrogenindustryasaleaderinrelatedtechnologiesandsupplychains.SincetheinvasionofUkraine,hydrogenhasalsobeenidentifiedasanavenueforreducingEurope’sdependenceonRussiannaturalgas.Inthisvein,theEUtargetsthedeploymentof100GWofelectrolyzercapacityandthedomesticproductionandimportofupto20milliontonnesofhydrogenby2030(EC,2022c,2023f).

Toachievetheseambitioustargets,theEUhasbeguntolauncharangeofmeasurestosupportinvestmentinrenewablehydrogenproduction,toacceleratetheuptakeofrenewablehydrogenanditsderivativesinhard-to-electrifysectors,topromoteinvestmentsinhydrogentransportandstorageinfrastructureaswellasresearchandinnovation.TheseeffortshavereceivedfurtherurgencyfollowingthepassageoftheUSInflationReductionActinAugust2022,alarge-scalesupportschemethatintroducesattractivetaxcreditsforinvestmentsinlow-carbonandrenewablehydrogen.UnderpressuretomatchUSambition,theEUhasfurtheracceleratedpolicydevelopmenttoensureamorerapidroll-outofhydrogen-relatedtechnologies(EC,2023f).

Thispolicypapertakesstockofthesepolicydevelopments.Indoingso,itfocusesitsprimaryattentiononwhetherandhowtheEUcaneffectivelymobilizeitsdomestichydrogenpotential.Whilethepaperacknowledgesthathydrogenimportsfromnon-EUcountriesarelikelytoplayasignificantrole,itdepartsfromthepremisethatthelarge-scalemobilizationofcost-competitivedomesticresourcesisanessentialelementforensuringtheEU’senergysecurityaswellasindustrialleadershipinthesector.

Inthisvein,thispaperidentifieskeychallengesandgapsintheEU’senablingenvironmentfortherealizationofitsdomestichydrogenpotential.ItbeginswithanoverviewofitspotentialsforrenewablehydrogenproductionasthewelltheirdistributionacrossEUMemberStates.Itthencomparesthemtohydrogen-relatedtargetsandannouncedinvestmentsintheMemberStates,highlightingimportantdiscrepanciesbetweenhydrogenpotentials,ontheonehand,andambitions,ontheother.Againstthisbackground,thepaperprovidesareviewofkeyEU-levelpolicies,focusingonpoliciesforthepromotionofhydrogenproductionanduse.Questionsrelatedtoinfrastructureforstorageandtransportofhydrogenarebeyondthescopeofthepaperandarenotconsidered.Finally,buildingonthepolicyreview,thefinalsectionproposesanumberofrecommendationsforthefurtherdevelopmentofEUpolicyandfundingmechanismsforthemobilizationofdomestichydrogenresourcesandforsupportingthehydrogenramp-upintheEUmorebroadly.

1MeetingEuropeanhydrogendemandwithdomesticsupply:potentialsandmismatches

ThissectionprovidesashortreviewofpossiblefutureEuropeanhydrogendemandaswellasthepotentialtomeetthisdemandwithdomesticrenewablehydrogensupply.Inafirststep,itprovidesanaggregateperspectiveofdemandandsupplyincountriesintheEuropean

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EconomicAreaandtheUK.Inasecondstep,itreviewsthedistributionofpotentialdemandandsupplyacrossEuropeancountries.Itcontraststhiswithcurrenthydrogensupplytargetsandplannedrenewablehydrogenprojectsintherespectivecountries.

1.1EstimatingEuropeanhydrogensupplyanddemand:anaggregateperspective

ToprovideanestimateofEurope’sabilitytomeetitsfuturehydrogendemandwithdomesticsupplydependsonthefollowingvariables:

.theavailabilityofrenewableenergyresourcesforelectricitygeneration

.estimatedfuturedemandforrenewableelectricity,includingforthedecarbonizationofthepowersectorandforthedecarbonizationofend-usesectorsviadirectelectrification,

.estimateddemandforrenewableelectricitytogeneraterenewablehydrogentomeettherequirementsfordecarbonizationofdomesticend-usesectors

Toprovidesuchanestimate,weprovidecalculationsofrenewableenergypotentialandelectricitydemand,distinguishingbetweendemandfordirectelectricityuseandfortheproductionofrenewablehydrogen.Renewablepotentialswerecalculatedusingtherenewable

potentialcalculator2.0fromthemodelEnertile1

.EstimatesofelectricitydemandarebasedondatafromtheTranshydeproject.TheTranshydeprojectprovidesdemandestimatesforarangeofscenariosforachievingcarbonneutralityintheEU,Norway,SwitzerlandandtheUK,includingrenewablehydrogendemandinindustry,transportandbuildings.

2

Inthefollowing,weconsiderresultsfromtwoscenarios.ThefirstisreferredtoastheS2ChemSteelscenario.Thisonlyconsidershydrogendemandforsectorswithnoalternativeoronlyveryexpensivealternativemitigationoptions.Intheindustrialsector,thisincludeshydrogendemandinthesteelandchemicalindustry(hydrogenasfeedstock)aswellas

1

Themodelcalculatesthepotentialforfivedifferentgenerationtechnologies,includingrooftop

solarphotovoltaics,utility-scalesolarphotovoltaics,onshorewind,offshorewindandconcentratedsolarpower.Thecalculationsarebasedona6.5by6.5kmgrid.Land-usecriteriaareallocatedto

thesetilesaccordingtotheGlobCover2009dataset.Ausagefactorisallocatedtoeachland

category,tocalculatetheavailablelandtoinstallthedifferentrenewableenergysources.Natural

protectedareascategoriesIandIIaccordingtotheInternationalunionforConservationofNature

andNaturalResourcesareexcludedfromthecalculation.Furtherdetailsinthecalculationare

foundinSensfu?,Frank(2021):LangfristszenarienfürdieTransformationdesEnergiesystemsin

Deutschland.TreibhausgasneutraleSzenarien.Kurzvorstellung.EditedbyFraunhoferISI,BMWi.

Availableonlineat

https://www.langfristszenarien.de/enertile-explorer-

wAssets/docs/LFS3_TN_Szenarien_2021_06_25_v6__.pdf,

accessedon5/13/2022.

2

FormoreinformationontheTranshydeprojectandrelatedscenarios,pleasesee

https://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/en/competence-center/energietechnologien-

energiesysteme/projekte/TransHyDe-Sys.html

andFleiter,Tobias;Al-Dabbas,Khaled;Rehfeldt,Matthias;Alibas,Sirin;Neuner,Felix;Wei?enburger,Bastianetal.(inpreparation):SzenarienzurzukünftigenRollevonWasserstoffimCO2-neutralenEnergiesystem.Teil1:Nachfrageund

Gesamtsystem.

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selectedhigh-temperatureindustrialprocesses.Inthetransportsector,thehydrogendemandislimitedtoitsuseforsyntheticfuelsinaviationandlong-distancemaritimetransport.Nohydrogendemandisconsideredinthebuildingssector.Thesecondscenario–theS5AllSectscenario-considersanumberofadditionalhydrogenapplications.Intheindustrialsector,thisincludeshydrogenuseformid-temperatureprocessheat.Inthetransportsector,hydrogenuseisextendedtolong-distancetrucktransportandaminorshareisconsideredforuseinpassengercars.Inthebuildingssector,hydrogenisusedtocovertheneedsofdecentralizedheatsupplyinbuildingsinareaswithlesspreferableconditionsforelectrification.

For2050,theresultsofthesescenariosshowthatinbothscenarioselectricitydemandwouldbemorethandoublethecurrentelectricitygenerationinthecountriesconsidered(i.e.EU,

Norway,SwitzerlandandtheUK),whichisslightlyover3000TWh3

.TheS2ChemSteelscenariocalculateselectricitydemandofabout6,600TWh,whiletheelectricityneedsintheS5AllSectscenarioarecloseto8,000TWh.In2021,theEU,UK,NorwayandSwitzerlandproduced1396

TWh4

ofrenewablepoweraswellas769TWh5

ofnuclearpower.Hence,withoutenergyimportsandassumingstableamountsofnuclearpowergeneration,renewableenergygenerationintheconsideredcountrieswouldhavetoincreasebyapproximately4500to5800TWh,orafactorofapproximately3to4,dependingonthescaleofhydrogenuse.Thisinturnimpliesanaverageincreaseinrenewableenergygenerationof160to200TWhperyearupto2050.Between2017to2021,renewableenergygenerationonlyexpandedbyapproximately50TWhperyearinthecountriesconcerned.

Thesefiguresclearlyindicatethesignificanttrade-offstheEUanditsimmediateneighboursfaceinth