2021年核能的國際現(xiàn)狀與前景-26正式版

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INTERNATIONALSTATUSANDPROSPECTSFORNUCLEARPOWER2021

ReportbytheDirectorGeneral

Thedocumenthasbeenre-postedonGovAtomandonIAEA.orgwiththeadditionofthiscoverpage.

AtomsforPeaceandDevelopment

BoardofGovernors

GeneralConference

GOV/INF/2021/32-GC(65)/INF/6

Date:16July2021

GeneralDistribution

Original:English

Forofficialuseonly

Item18oftheConference'sprovisionalagenda

(GC(65)/1andAdd.1)

InternationalStatusandProspectsforNuclearPower2021

ReportbytheDirectorGeneral

Summary

GeneralConferenceResolutionGC(50)/RES/13requestedtheSecretariattoprovide,onabiennialbasis,acomprehensivereportontheinternationalstatusandprospectsfornuclearpower,beginningin2008.GeneralConferenceresolutionGC(60)/RES/12,issuedinSeptember2016,requestedtheSecretariattocontinuetopublishtheInternationalStatusandProspectsforNuclearPowerreportonafour-yearbasis,startingin2017.ThisreportrespondstoresolutionGC(60)/RES/12.

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InternationalStatusandProspectsforNuclearPower2021

ReportbytheDirectorGeneral

CleanenergyforClimateandDevelopment:SocioeconomicContext

A.1.TheEvolvingContext

TherehavebeensignificantnationalandinternationaldevelopmentsunderscoringtheroleofnuclearpowerinmitigatingclimatechangeandachievingsustainabledevelopmentsinceInternationalStatusandProspectsforNuclearPower2017(documentGOV/INF/2017/12-GC(61)/INF/8)wasissued.Thissectionhighlightssomeofthemostimportantdevelopmentsaffectingthestatusandprospectsfornuclearpower.

A.1.2.InternationalDevelopments

Thereisgrowingglobalrecognitionthataccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainableandmodernenergyforall(UnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentGoal(SDG)7)iscriticaltoachievingvirtuallyalloftheother16SDGs.TheSDGs,adoptedbyworldleadersinSeptember2015,calluponallcountriestomobilizeeffortsupto2030toendallformsofpoverty,fightinequalitiesandtackleclimatechange.Theseeffortsgohandinhandwithstrategiesthatbuildeconomicgrowthandaddresssocialneeds,includingeducation,health,socialprotectionandjobopportunities,whiletacklingclimatechangeandenvironmentalprotection.Accordingtothe

UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs

(UNDESA),whichactsasthesecretariatfortheSDGs,SDG7iscrucialtoachievingalmostalloftheotherSDGs,“frompovertyeradicationviaadvancementsinhealth,education,watersupplyandindustrializationtomitigatingclimatechange”.ThatsamepointhasbeenrepeatedlyaffirmedbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)oftheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD),whichinMarch2018

stated

that“energyisattheheartofmanyoftheseSustainableDevelopmentGoals–fromexpandingaccesstoelectricity,toimprovingcleancookingfuels,fromreducingwastefulenergysubsidiestocurbingdeadlyairpollutionthatprematurelykillsmillionsaroundtheworld”.

Estimationsofhowmuchcarbondioxide(CO2)hasbeeneffectivelyavoidedbytheuseofnuclearpowerinthelast50yearsvarybetween70gigatonnes(Gt)and78Gt,anddependonwhattechnologieswouldhavebeendeployedifnuclearpowerplants(NPPs)hadnotbeenbuilt.Calculatingavoidedemissionsfromthecurrentinstalledfleetiscomplex,sincethealternativetonuclearpowercouldrangefromgastoacombinationofgasandrenewables.Between1970and2010,theclearalternativestonuclearpowerwereoil,coalandlater,gas.Countriesthatdeployednuclearonalargescale,suchas

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FranceandSweden,managedtodecarbonizetheirelectricitymixintwotothreedecades.In2019,nuclearpowerproduced10.4%oftheworld’selectricity,with2657terawatt-hours(TWh)oflowcarbonelectricityproduced.Hadthislevelofgenerationbeenproducedbygas,about1.5GtCO2wouldhavebeenemitted.Lifecycleanalysesofelectricitygenerationtechnologiesshowthatnuclearpowerisamongtheleastcarbonintensiveofalltechnologies,onaparwithhydroandwindpower.Nuclearpowerremainsakeyoptionfordecarbonizingtheelectricitysectorinthedecadestocome,togetherwithvariablerenewablessuchaswindandsolarphotovoltaics(PV).

Internationalacknowledgementofthesignificantroleplayedbynuclearpowerinclimatechangemitigationandsustainabledevelopmenthasbeensteadilyadvancing.ManynationalandinternationalorganizationshaveanalysedtheneedstodecarbonizetheenergysystemconsistentwithachievingthegoalsoftheParisAgreement;andmanyoftheirscenarioscallforasubstantialincreaseinglobalnuclearpowercapacity,includingallfourillustrativescenariosdescribedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)inits2018SpecialReportonGlobalWarmingof1.5°C.Indeed,toachievethe1.5°Cobjective,thefourIPCCillustrativescenarioscallforanincreaseinnuclearpowercapacityofbetween60%and500%by2050.Atthesametime,nuclearpowerisincreasinglyseenasanimportantoptionforthedevelopingworldtomeetrisingenergydemandandimprovelivingstandardswithoutincreasinggreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.AccordingtotheIEA’sSustainableDevelopmentScenariofromitsWorldEnergyOutlook2019,nuclearpowerneedstoexpandsignificantlybeyonditshistoricalmarketsembarkingcountries,includingdevelopingones,andalsobeyondthepowersectoriftheworldistohaveareasonablechanceofmeetingclimatechangegoalsaswellastheotherenergyrelatedSDGs.

InOctober2019,theAgencyorganizeditsfirstInternationalConferenceonClimateChangeandtheRoleofNuclearPower.Theevent,whichdrewmorethan500participantsfrom79MemberStatesand17internationalorganizations,forthefirsttimebroughttogethertheheadsofthemajorinternationalorganizationsdealingwithenergyandclimatechange(UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,IPCC,IEAandUNDESA)fordiscussionsontheroleofnuclearpowerinaddressingglobalwarming.Nuclearpowerhasamajorroletoplayindecarbonizingtheenergysectortoachieveglobalclimategoalsbutwillneedenablingpoliciestoachieveitsfullpotential,saidConferencePresidentMikhailChudakov,IAEADeputyDirectorGeneralandHeadoftheDepartmentofNuclearEnergy,inhisconcludingsummary.

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InitsMay2019reportNuclearPowerinaCleanEnergySystem,theIEAwarnedthatafailuretomaketimelydecisionsonnuclearpowerwouldraisethecostsofthecleanenergytransitionwhilealsomakingitmuchmoredifficulttoachievethenet-zerogoals.TheIEAreiteratedthatsamepointinitslandmarkreportNetZeroby2050:ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector,issuedinMay2021,whichdescribesapotentialpathwayfortheworldtoeliminategreenhousegasemissionsbymid-century.Thatreportseesnucleargeneratingcapacitynearlydoublingby2050,withannualgridconnectionsratereachingsome30gigawattsinsomeyears,evenasnuclearpower’soverallshareofglobalelectricityproductiondeclinesslightlyto8%in2050.Therestoftheelectricitymixin2050is,accordingtothisNetZeroscenario,dominatedbyrenewables,inparticularsolarandwind.ButtheIEAalsopointedoutinarecentreportTheroleofcriticalmineralsincleanenergytransitions,thatwind,solarandbatterytechnologiesareverydependentoncriticalminerals,theavailabilityofwhichcouldslowdownthedeploymentofthesetechnologies.Nuclearpower,ontheotherhand,isalongwithhydropower,oneofthelowcarbontechnologieswiththelowestmineralintensity.

TheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology(MIT)EnergyInitiative,inareportpublishedinSeptember2018,calledforamajorincreaseinglobalnucleargeneratingcapacitytomeetnet-zerogoals.Toachievethisincrease,thereportoutlinedpoliciesthatwouldestablishamorelevelplayingfieldfornuclearpowertocompetewithotherlowcarbonenergytechnologies,aswellasstepsneededtolowerthecostofnuclearnewbuildprojects.LiketheIEAreport,theMITstudyconcludedthatwithoutasignificantcontributionfromdispatchablenuclearpower,thecleanenergytransitionwouldbemuchmoreexpensiveandmoredifficulttoachieve.

AccordingtotheDecember2020reportProjectedCostsofGeneratingElectricity,jointlyproducedbytheIEAandtheOECDNuclearEnergyAgency,extendingtheoperationallifetimeofexistingNPPsisthemostcost-effectiveinvestmentsinlowcarbonelectricitygeneration.Thereportnotedthatwhilehydropowercanprovidesimilarcontributionsatcomparablecosts,itremainshighlydependentonthenaturalresourcesofindividualcountries.

AccordingtoaMarch2021reportbytheUnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEurope,nuclearenergyisan“indispensabletool”forachievingtheSDGs,withavitalroletoplayinprovidingaffordableenergy,mitigatingclimatechange,eliminatingpoverty,achievingzerohunger,generatingeconomicgrowth,andprovidingbothindustrialinnovationandcleanwater.Reliablenuclearenergycanbeacriticalpartofdecarbonizedenergysystemsforcountriesseekingtomeetclimatechangeandsustainabledevelopmentgoals,accordingtothereport,entitledApplicationoftheUnitedNationsFrameworkClassificationforResourcesandtheUnitedNationsResourceManagementSystem:UseofNuclearFuelResourcesforSustainableDevelopment–EntryPathways.

TheJointResearchCentre(JRC),thescienceandknowledgeserviceoftheEuropeanCommission,saidinaMarch2021technicalassessmentthat“thereisnoscience-basedevidencethatnuclearenergydoesmoreharmtohumanhealthortotheenvironmentthanother(lowcarbon)electricityproductiontechnologiesalreadyincludedintheEUTaxonomyasactivitiessupportingclimatechangemitigation”.Theassessmentwascarriedoutwiththerespecttothe‘donosignificantharm’criteriaoftheEuropeanUnion’s‘TaxonomyRegulation’,whichestablishestheframeworkforfacilitatingsustainableinvestmentsandwilleventuallyprovidethefoundationforscalinguplowcarbonenergyinvestmentsacrosstheEuropeanUnion.TheJRC

report

cited2016datashowingthatnuclearpowerperformsverywellinevaluationsofitshealthimpactscomparedwithotherenergysources,usingthedisability-adjustedlifeyearmeasureofoveralldiseaseburdenexpressedasthecumulativenumberofyearslostduetoillhealth,disabilityorearlydeath.

Investmentsincleanenergysourcessuchassolar,windandnuclearhaveanimpactongrossdomesticproduct(GDP)thatistwotoseventimesstrongerthanspendingonfossilsourcessuchasgas,coalandoil,accordingtoaworkingpaperpublishedbytheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)inMarch

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2021,entitledBuildingBackBetter:HowBigAreGreenSpendingMultipliers?.Nuclearpowerproducedthebiggesteconomicmultipliereffectofanycleanenergysource,thepapersaid,addingthatnuclearpowerproducesabout25%moreemploymentperunitofelectricitythanwindpowerandthatworkersinthenuclearsectorearnone-thirdmorethanthoseintherenewableenergyindustry.

B. NuclearPowerToday

Attheendof2020,theworld’stotalnuclearpowercapacitywas392.6GW(e)

1

,generatedby442operationalnuclearpowerreactorsin32countries.Countriesdemonstratedadaptabilitytothecoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)pandemicbytakingeffectivemeasures,reflectingstrongorganizationalculture.Attheoutsetofthepandemicinearly2020,theAgencyestablishedtheCOVID-

NuclearPowerPlantOperatingExperienceNetworktoshareinformationonmeasurestakentomitigatethepandemicanditsimpactontheoperationofNPPs.Noneofthe32countrieswithoperatingNPPsreportedthatthepandemichadinducedanoperationaleventimpactingsafeandreliableNPPoperation.

Nuclearpowersupplied2553.2terawatt-hoursofGHGemission-freeelectricityin2020,accountingforabout10%oftotalglobalelectricitygenerationandnearlyathirdoftheworld’slowcarbonelectricityproduction.

Some5.5GW(e)ofnewnuclearcapacitywasconnectedtothegrid,fromfivenewpressurizedwaterreactors(PWRs):1110megawatts(electrical)(MW(e))atBelarusian?1inBelarus,1000MW(e)atTianwan-5and1000MW(e)atFuqing?5inChina,1066MW(e)atLeningrad2-2intheRussianFederationand1345MW(e)atBarakah-1intheUnitedArabEmirates.Thestart-upofBelarusian-1in

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GW(e),orgigawatt(electrical),equalsonethousandmillionwattsofelectricalpower.AlldataonnuclearpowerreactorsasreportedtotheIAEAPowerReactorInformationSystem(PRIS)asof1June2021.

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BelarusandofBarakah-1intheUnitedArabEmiratesmarkedthefirstinstancesofnuclearelectricitygenerationinthesetwocountries.

Theworld’sfirstadvancedsmallmodularreactor(SMR)andonlyfloatingNPP,AkademikLomonosov,startedcommercialoperationin2020.ItislocatedjustofftheArcticcoastintheRussianFederationandfeaturestwo35(MW(e))KLT-40SSMRunits.

Globally,some89.5%ofoperationalnuclearpowercapacitycomprisedlightwatermoderatedandcooledreactortypes;6%wereheavywatermoderatedandcooledreactortypes;2%werelightwatercooled,graphitemoderatedreactor(LWGR)types,while2%weregascooledreactortypes.Threereactorswereliquidmetalcooledfastreactors.Theremaining0.5%werethreeliquidmetalcooledfastreactorswithatotalcapacityof1.4GW(e).

During2020,5.2GW(e)ofnuclearcapacitywasretired,withsixnuclearpowerreactorspermanentlyshutdown:Fessenheim-1(an880MW(e)PWR)andFessenheim-2(an880MW(e)PWR)inFrance,Leningrad-2(a925MW(e)LWGR)intheRussianFederation,andDuaneArnold-1(a601MW(e)boilingwaterreactor(BWR))andIndianPoint-2(a998MW(e)PWR)intheUnitedStatesofAmerica.Ringhals-1(an881MW(e)BWR)inSwedenwasshutdownonthelastdayof2020,aftermorethan46yearsofservice.

Overall,nuclearpowercapacityinthepastdecadehasshownagradualgrowthtrend,includingsome23.7GW(e)ofnewcapacityaddedbynewreactorsorupgradestoexistingreactors.Nuclearpowergenerationhasdemonstratedcontinuousgrowth,expandingbymorethan6%since2011.

Outofthe52reactorscurrentlyunderconstruction,9areinembarkingcountries.Atotalof28countrieshaveexpressedinterestinnuclearpowerandareconsidering,planningoractivelyworkingtoincludeitintotheirenergymix.Another24MemberStatesparticipateintheAgency’snuclearinfrastructurerelatedactivitiesorareinvolvedinenergyplanningprojectsthroughthetechnicalcooperationprogramme.TentotwelveembarkingMemberStatesplantooperateNPPsby2030-2035,representingapotentialincreaseofnearly30%inthenumberofoperatingcountries.SeveralembarkingcountrieshavealsoexpressedinterestinSMRstechnology,inparticularEstonia,Ghana,Jordan,Kenya,Poland,SaudiArabiaandSudan,aswellasexpandingcountriessuchasSouthAfrica.BasedonitsMilestonesApproach,theIAEAofferstheIntegratedNuclearInfrastructureReview(INIR)servicetobothembarkingcountriesandthosethatareexpandingtheirnuclearpowerprogramme,tohelpensurethattheinfrastructurerequiredforthesafe,secureandsustainableuseofnuclearpowerisdevelopedandimplementedinaresponsibleandorderlymanner.

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TheIntegratedNuclearInfrastructureReview(INIR)continuestobeasought-afterserviceoftheAgency,supportingMemberStatesinreviewingthestatusoftheirnationalnuclearinfrastructureandidentifyinggapsinasystematicandintegratedway.Todate,32INIRmissionshavebeenconductedto

MemberStates.

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C.TheProspectsforNuclearPower

Scenariomodellingconsistentwiththeobjectivesofthe2015ParisAgreementgenerallyindicatesthatnuclearpoweriskeytothesuccessofthedecarbonizationoftheelectricitysector,byprovidingreliablelowcarbonpowertothegridaroundtheclock.Withtheglobalincreaseinelectricitydemandtosatisfytheneedsoftheworld’spopulationandensuretheiraccesstoelectricityby2050,andtheincreasedlevelofelectrificationoftheeconomy,amajorincreaseinlowcarbongenerationwillbenecessary.Whilethebulkofthisgenerationistobeprovidedbyvariablerenewables,suchaswindandsolarPV,nuclearwillmaintainitsglobalshareofbetween8and10%,andprovidethenecessaryflexibilityanddispatchabilitythatlowcarbonelectricitysystemsrequire.TheAgency’shighcaseprojectionsupto2050seenuclearinstalledcapacityincreasingto715GW(e),relyingonextensivelong-termoperationoftheexistingfleetaswellas500GW(e)fromnewbuildstobeconstructedoverthreedecades.Inthelowcaseestimate,globalnuclearelectricitygeneratingcapacitywilldecreaseby7%to363GW(e)by2050,representinga6%shareofglobalelectricitygenerationversusaround10%in2019.However,eventhelowcaseestimateanticipatesasignificantconstructionofnewNPPs,assumingthataboutonethirdofexistingnuclearpowerreactorswillberetiredby2030,whilenewreactorswilladdalmost80GW(e)ofcapacity.Between2030and2050itisexpectedthatcapacityadditionsofnewreactorswillalmostmatchretirements.

TorecoverfromtheimpactoftheCOVID-19pandemic,governmentsaroundtheworldareconsideringeconomicrecoverypackages.Thesemeasuresareauniqueopportunitytoalignpublicinvestmentswiththeneedsofthecleanenergytransition.Hence,attentionisbeingpaidtotheeffectsofinvestmentsingreentechnologies.InMarch2021,theIMFpublishedaworkingpapershowingthatinvestmentsingreentechnologieshaveagreaterimpactonnationalGDPthaninvestmentsinfossil-relatedassets.Moreover,investmentsinnuclearprogrammeshaveagreaterimpact(higherGDPmultiplier)thananyothergreentechnologyinvestments.MacroeconomicanalysisbytheAgencyhasalsoshownthatnuclearpowerprojectsleadtothecreationofahighnumberofwell-paidjobsandhaveotherpositiveimpactsontheeconomy.

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InfluentialFactorsfortheFutureDeploymentofNuclearPower

D.1.FundingandFinancing

ThecapitalcostsassociatedwithdevelopinganewNPParesubstantialandmayrepresentaboutthree-quartersofthelevelizedcostofnuclearelectricity.Theseinterest-relatedliabilitiesaredischargedthroughoutaplant’slifetime,offsetbytheincomegeneratedfromproducedelectricity.However,highlycapitalintensiveprojectsaresensitivetointerestratechangesandconstructiondurations,aswellastothenatureoftheseuncertainties.Avarietyofpotentialfinancingmodelshavebeendevelopedtoaddresssomeoftheseuncertainties,particularlythosemarketriskstowhichprojectdevelopers—andprovidersoffinance–maybeexposedduringtheoperatingphaseofaplant’slifecycle.Mitigationofsuchrisksmaybeachievedthrougharrangements–potentiallybackedbythegovernmentofthecountryhostingtheplant–tobuysomeorallofthepowerproducedbyaplantataguaranteedprice.SucharrangementshavebeencentraltodevelopingprojectssuchasOlkiluotoandHanhikiviNPPsinFinland,AkkuyuNPPinTurkey,andHinkleyPointCintheUnitedKingdom.

MitigationofrisksatearlierstagesoftheNPPlifecycle–thoserelatedtoconstructiondelaysandassociatedcostoverruns–maybeaccomplishedinanumberofways,forexamplebythehostgovernmentprovidingdirectsovereignguaranteestolenders,orbynuclearsteamsupplysystemvendorsagreeingtotakeanequitystakeintheproject.ThelatterhappenedintheBarakahNPPprojectintheUnitedArabEmirates,wheretheKoreaElectricPowerCorporationtookan18%equitystakeintheNawahEnergyandBarakahOneCompany;intheHanhikiviNPPprojectinFinland,wheretheRussianFederation’sStateAtomicEnergyCorporation“Rosatom”acquireda34%share;andintheHinkley

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PointCprojectintheUnitedKingdomwhereFrenchélectricitédeFranceS.A.andChinaGeneralNuclearPowerGrouphavetwo-thirdandone-thirdequity,respectively.ForrecentnewbuildprojectsinembarkingandexpandingcountriessuchasBangladesh,Belarus,Egypt,Hungary,IranandPakistanthevendorcountryandthehostgovernmentchosetoenterintointer-governmentalagreementswithgovernmentalloans.

SMRsmayhaveadvantagesoverlargereactors,suchasshorterconstructiontimes,lowerupfrontcapitalcosts,applicabilitytosmallergridsandmodularexpansionpossibilitiestograduallymeetthedemand.SuchadvantagescouldleadtorevisitingthecurrentfinancialmodelsusedforlargeNPPs.ThesuccessfuldemonstrationofSMRsinthenextdecadeorsocouldencouragemoreexpandingandembarkingcountriestoconsiderthem.PrivateinvestorsareshowinggrowinginterestinSMRtechnologydevelopment,demonstrationanddeployment.

Anotherimportantliabilityconcernsthecostsarisingattheendoftheoperatinglifetimeofafacility,suchasthoserelatedtofacilitydecommissioningandthelong-termmanagementofhighlevelradioactivewaste.Asinthecaseof‘up-front’costs,provisionsmustalsobemadefromoperatingincometoaddressthese‘backend’costs.Thelattermayrepresentupto10%ofthelevelizedcostofnuclearelectricity.Legislationgoverningtheuseofnuclearenergygenerallylaysoutrequirementsforsettingasidefundstocoverback-endcostsduringtherevenueearningphaseofaplant’soperatinglife.Manydifferentapproachesaretaken,fromthoserequiringownerstomakeappropriateprovisionsinthecompany’sbooks,toarequirementthattherelevantfundsbetransferredtoanindependentorganizationthatisresponsiblefortheirmanagementandtheireventualdisbursementtocoverthebackendliabilities

D.2.ElectricityMarketsandPolicies

Keydevelopmentsintheglobalpowermarketssince2017includethecontinuousdeploymentoflargeamountsofrenewableenergywithdecreasingcosts(forwindandsolarPV),theshiftingofelectricitydemandfromOECDtonon-OECDcountriesowingtoincreasedelectrificationofvarioussectors,thesignificantincreaseincarbonpricingasaresultofpolicies,andchangesinemissionstradingschemes.Togetherwiththedevelopmentof‘taxonomies’or,moregenerally,environmentalsocialandgovernance(ESG)criteriaforsustainableinvestments,andincreasedcommitmentfrommanyMemberStatestomeetnetzeroemissionsbythemiddleofthecentury,coalassetshavebecomealiability,andfinancialinstitutionsaremovingawayfrominvestmentsincoal.Nuclearpowergenerationhascontinuedtogrow,reachingin2019itssecondhighestlevelever.In2020,COVID-19-relatedlockdownsshookpowermarkets;overseveralmonthsdemandfellsignificantlyandfossilfuelgenerationfellevenfurtherinfavouroflow-marginalcosttechnologiessuchasrenewablesandnuclear.Emissionshavesincereboundedwiththeeconomicrecovery.Inadditiontofocusingonreducingcarbonemissions,policymakershavetoaddresstheneedforsecurityofsupply,airqualityandresilience.

TheParisAgreementshouldhaveapositiveinfluenceonnuclearpowerdevelopmentifnuclearpower’spotentialasalowcarbonenergysourcebecomesmorewidelyrecognized.TheIPCCSpecialReportonGlobalWarmingof1.5oC,releasedin2018,andtheIEA’srecentlylaunchedNetZeroBy2050:ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySectorshowthatmosttrajectoriestonetzeroincludenuclearpower,withadoublingofnuclearelectricitygenerationinthenextthreedecades.Asyet,therecentlyupdatednationallydeterminedcontributionsundertheParisAgreementdonotseemtoindicateashiftinthecallfornuclearpowertocontributetonationalclimatemitigationstrategies.However,insomecountries,theclimatechangeissueisanincentivetosupportcontinuedoperationofNPPsorpartoftherationaleforhavinganewbuildprogramme.Oneclearpotentialofnuclearpowerliesinitsabilitytohelpdecarbonize‘hard-to-abate’sectors–whichcannotbeelectrifiedeasily.Lowcarbonheatorhydrogenproducedbycurrentfleetandadvancedreactorscouldbecomekeytothesuccessofcountries’netzeroobjectives,providedthatthetechnologybecomescommerciallyviablewithinthenextdecadeorso.Inthemeantime,increasingtheroleofnuclearinproducinglowcarbonelectricityandtosome

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extendheatthroughthelong-termoperationoftheexistingfleetandnewnuclearplantsremainscriticallyimportant.

TheAgency’sprojectionsto2050suggestthatachievingtheParisAgreementobjectiveswillrequireatleastadoublingofcurrentnuclearpowercapacitylevelsby2050,inlinewithIEAprojections.Energypoliciesandelectricitymarketincentivesthatpromotealltypesoflowcarbonsolutions,includingnuclearpower,willplayafundamentalroleinincentivisinginvestmentinnuclearpowerandwillreducerisksandthecostoffinancing.Thisisnecessarytoensurethetimelydeploymentofnuclearpowerforclimatechangemitigation.Inparallel,itisnecessarytorecognizetheadvantagesofsecurityofsupply,reliabilityandpredictabilitythatnuclearpoweroffers,aswellasitscontributiontotheclimateresilienceofenergyinfrastructures.ThisisallthemoreurgentinanelectricityenvironmentthatreliesonincreasingamountsofvariablerenewabletechnologiessuchaswindandsolarPV.Recentpolicyexamplesservetoemphasizetheroleofelectricitymarketsinnuclearpowerdevelopment:intheUnitedKingdom,theContractforDifferenceortheRegulatedAssetBasemechanismsconsideredfornewnuclearprojectstosecurereturnsoninvestment;orthedifferenttypesofsupportenactedinseveralstatesintheUnitedStatesofAmerica(NewYork,Illinois,Connecticut,NewJerseyandOhio)tovaluelowcarbonnuclearelectricitygenerationandsupportexistingNPPs.

D.3.Resilience

InFebruary2021,theNorthAmericanwinterstormwithblackoutscausedbyacombinationoff