世界能源展望-英

International

Energy

Outlook

2023with

projections

to2050October

11,

2023/ieo#IEO2023What

doesEIA

do?The

U.S.Energy

Information

Administration

(EIA)

is

thestatistical

andanalytical

agency

within

theU.S.Department

ofEnergy.EIAis

thenation's

premier

source

ofenergy

information.By

law,

our

data,analyses,

forecasts,

andprojections

are

independent

ofapproval

by

any

other

officer

or

employee

oftheU.S.

government.Our

International

Energy

Outlook

2023

(IEO2023)

explores

long-term

energytrends

across

theglobe.IEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

20232What’s

new

in

the

International

Energy

Outlook

2023??

Narrative

improvements

carriedfrom

theAnnual

Energy

Outlook

2023

(AEO2023),including

technical

notes

and

an

emphasison

the

range

ofresults?

New

cases

examining

capital

costs

ofzero-carbon

technologies?

Modeling

improvements:–

Newanalysisregions–

Newoilandnatural

gasmodel–

Highertemporal

resolutioninthe

electricitymodel–

Assumptions

abouttheimpacts

of

Russia’sfull-scaleinvasion

ofUkraineIEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

20233TheIEO2023includes

cases

that

vary

technical

and

economicassumptions?

All

cases

reflect

current

laws

and

regulations

as

of

March

2023,

and

the

U.S.

resultscome

directly

from

the

AEO2023,

which

assumes

U.S.

laws

and

regulations

as

ofNovember

2022

remain

uncha

ng

ed.CaseAssumptionsReferenceGlobal

average

annual

GDP

(purchasing

power

parity)

percentagechange

(2022–2050):

2.6%Brent:

$102

per

barrel

(2022$)

in

2050Zero-carbon

technologies’

2022–2050

cost

reductions:

up

to20%Economic

GrowthOil

PriceLow:

1.8%

average

annual

GDP

percentage

change

(2022–2050)High:

3.4%

average

annual

GDP

percentage

change

(2022–2050)Low:

$48

per

barrel

(2022$)

in

2050High:

$187

per

barrel

(2022$)

in

2050Zero-Carbon

TechnologyCost

(electric

power

sector)Low:

40%

reduction

in

capital

costs

below

Reference

case

by

2050High:

No

reduction

in

costsNote:

Zero-carbon

technologies

include

solar,

wind,

battery

storage,

and

nuclear.IEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

20234IEO2023

Highlights?

Increasing

population

andincome

offset

theeffects

ofdeclining

energy

andcarbon

intensity

onemissions.?

The

shift

torenewables

tomeet

growing

electricity

demand

is

driven

byregional

resources,

technology

costs,

andpolicy.?

Energy

security

concerns

hasten

atransition

from

fossil

fuels

in

somecountries,

although

they

dri

ve

increased

fossil

fuel

consumption

inothers.IEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

20235Th

ing

s

to

keepin

mind?

Although

we

model

a

number

ofcases,

we

donot

comprehensively

addressall

issues

that

could

dri

ve

significant

change,

like

in

a

forecast.?

Newpolicies,

geopolitical

events,

and

technology

breakthroughs

will

happenthatshift

thetrajectory

ofthe

global

energy

system.Therefore:?

IEO2023

is

not

aforecast.?

IEO2023

represents

a

set

of

policy-neutral

baselines

that

focus

onthecurrenttrajectory

oftheglobal

energy

system.IEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

20236Across

most

cases,

energy-related

CO

emissions

continue

to

rise2through

2050

under

current

lawsIEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

20237The

upward

pressures

of

population

and

GDP

growth

outweigh

thedownward

pressures

of

energy

and

carbon

intensity

on

emissionsIEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

20238India

leads

the

world

in

economic

growth,

and

growth

rates

varyfor

other

regionsIEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

20239Increasing

demand

and

current

policies

drive

steady

growth

infossil

fuel

energy—and

faster

growth

in

non-fossil

fuel

sourcesIEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

202310Renewable

energy

grows

the

fastest

as

ashare

of

primary

energyconsumption

across

all

cases

due

to

current

policy

and

costdriversIEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

202311IEO2023

Highlights?

Increasing

population

andincome

offset

theeffects

ofdeclining

energy

andcarbon

intensity

onemissions.?

The

shift

torenewables

tomeet

growing

electricity

demand

is

driven

byregional

resources,

technology

costs,

andpolicy.?

Energy

security

concerns

hasten

atransition

from

fossil

fuels

in

somecountries,

although

they

dri

ve

increased

fossil

fuel

consumption

inothers.IEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

202312IEO2023

Highlights?

Increasing

population

and

income

offset

the

effects

of

declining

energyand

carbon

intensity

on

emissions.?

The

shift

torenewables

tomeet

growing

electricity

demand

is

driven

byregional

resources,

technology

costs,

andpolicy.?

Energy

security

concerns

hasten

atransition

from

fossil

fuels

in

somecountries,

although

they

dri

ve

increased

fossil

fuel

consumption

inothers.IEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

202313Across

all

IEO2023

cases,

energy

consumption

increases,

andglobal

demand

grows

fastest

in

the

industrial

and

residentialsectorsIEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

202314Under

current

laws,

liquid

fuels

consumption

increases

through2050

across

all

cases,

driven

by

growth

in

the

industrial

sectorIEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

202315Industrial

energy

use

varies

across

regions

and

is

primarilydetermined

by

industrial

gross

output

and

energy

efficiency;India

’s

industrial

sector

has

the

steepest

growthIEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

202316Increasing

passenger

demand

drives

global

transportation

consumption;Rising

income

enables

travelers

to

shift

from

inexpensive,

moreefficient

modes

to

more

convenient,

less

efficient

modesIEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

202317Electric

vehicle

sales

grow

due

to

policy

incentives,

battery

costs,efficie

n

cy

standards,

and

electricity

pricesIEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

202318As

India

’s

economy

expands,

building

electrification

supports

arapidly

expanding

service

sector

and

electricity

use

almost

triplesin

homesIEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

202319IEO2023

Highlights?

Increasing

population

andincome

offset

theeffects

ofdeclining

energy

andcarbon

intensity

onemissions.?

The

shift

to

renewables

to

meet

growing

electricity

demand

isdrivenby

regional

resources,technology

costs,

and

policy.?

Energy

security

concerns

hasten

atransition

from

fossil

fuels

in

somecountries,

although

they

dri

ve

increased

fossil

fuel

consumption

inothers.IEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

202320By

2050,

global

coal-fired

and

liquid

fuel-fired

electricitygenerating

capacity

decrease

in

most

modeled

casesIEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

202321Total

electricity

generation

worldwide

increases

30%

to

76%relative

to

2022

across

cases,

and

renewables

and

nuclear

supply54%

to

67%

of

the

total

demand

across

cases

in

2050IEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

202322IEO2023

Highlights?

Increasing

population

andincome

offset

theeffects

ofdeclining

energy

andcarbon

intensity

onemissions.?

The

shift

torenewables

tomeet

growing

electricity

demand

is

driven

byregional

resources,

technology

costs,

andpolicy.?

Energysecurity

concerns

hastena

transition

fromfossil

fuels

in

somecountries,

although

they

drive

increased

fossil

fuel

consumption

inothers.IEO2023

Release,

CSISOctober

11,

202323Energy

security

considerations

that

favor

locally

availableresources

contribute

to

zero-carbon

technology

growth,

whichvaries

by

regionIEO