氣候變化中流離失所的兒童（英）

CHILDREN

DISPLACEDIN

A

CHANGING

CLIMATEpreparingfor

afuturealreadyunderwayAcknowledgementsCHILDRENDISPLACEDIN

A

CHANGINGCLIMATEThisUnitedNationsChildren’s

Fund

(UNICEF)publicationwasdevelopedjointlyby

UNICEF’s

ProgrammeDivision;DivisionofDataand

Analytics,PlanningandMonitoring;andDivision

ofGlobalCommunicationand

Advocacy,

inpartnershipwithInternalDisplacementMonitoringCentre(IDMC)andwithsupportfromthePatrickJ.

McGovernFoundation.ofData,

Analytics,PlanningandMonitoring(DAPM);Jo?oPedroAzevedo,Chief

StatisticianandDeputyDirector

ofDAPM;

MarkHereward,ChiefDataO?cerand

AssociateDirector

ofDAPM;Naysan

Sahba,Director

ofDivision

oftheGlobalCommunicationand

Advocacy;PalomaEscudero,

Senior

Advisor

on

Advocacy,ClimateChangeandGautamNarasimhan,GlobalLead

onClimate,Energy,

EnvironmentandDisasterRiskReduction.Overallleadershipandguidance:

Verena

Knaus,Danzhen

YouConceptualization,projectmanagementandnarrativedevelopment:LauraHealyDataanalysisandresearch:Jan

Beise,ClémenceLeduc,

SylvainPonserreProductionsupport:IlariaLanzoniReporting:

AnnabelleBodmer-Roy,

Tess

IngramFact-checking:YasmineHageMany

colleaguesacrossUNICEFprovided

criticalinputs,including:DavidAnthony,

Marta

Arias,

AnnabelleBodmer-Roy,

Jan

Burdziej,CristinaColon,LarissaDemel,NdeyeMarieDiop,MartinEklund,NicoleEthier,

Tsedeye

Girma,

TessIngram,Josiah

Kaplan,NupurKukrety,

Patrick

Laurent,HaniMansourian,Farai

Maxwell

Marumbwa,

Jason

Miks,Bo

ViktorNylund,OmarRobles,

Jeremy

Sprigge,Jen

Stephens,RamyaSubrahmanian,Lucy

Szaboova,

Ingrid

Sanchez

Tapia,

AnneMarie

Turmine,

Amy

Wickham,

Vanessa

Anne

Wyeth,

KevinWyjad

andcolleaguesinregional

o?ces,country

o?cesandnationalcommittees.Copy-editing:NaomiLindt,Ross

StewartDesignanddatavisualizations:Blossom.itSpecialthankstoIDMCfor

itspartnershipandcollaboration,especially

AlexandraBilak,ChristelleCazabat,María

TeresaMirandaEspinosaand

SylvainPonserre.Thanksalsotothefollowingpartnersfor

theirsupport:

Yoma,Goodwall,RobertBosch

Stiftung,theUnitedNationsNetworkonMigration,theO?ce

ofthe

Special

Advisor

on

SolutionsforInternalDisplacement,theGlobalCentrefor

ClimateMobilityandotherswhosharedtheirinsightsandsolutions.Thank

you

tothePatrickJ.

McGovernFoundationfor

itscontributionsandsupport,

especially

SarahGrady,

NikitaJapra,ClaudiaJuech,Ben

Mann,

AlissaOrlowsky,Frank

Ortiz,

Ananthan(A.B.)

SrinivasanandChelseyWalden-Schreiner.SpecialthanksgototheMigration

Youth

andChildrenPlatformoftheMajorGroupfor

Childrenand

Youth,

YOUNGO,

Resilient40

Africaandthemany

youngpeoplewhoparticipatedintheGoodwallClimateMobilityChallengeand

AfricaClimateMobilityInitiative

Youth

Forum.Thisreportbene?tedfromvaluablecontributionsfrommanycolleagues.Particularthanksgoto

SanjayWijesekera,Director

oftheProgrammeDivision;GenevieveBoutin,DeputyDirector

oftheProgrammeDivision;

Vidhya

Ganesh,Director

oftheDivision2ContentsCHILDRENDISPLACEDIN

A

CHANGINGCLIMATE0

1.

The

faces

ofchilddisplacement602.

Mappingdisaster-relateddisplacements

ofchildren11153949575903.

The

hazards04.

Analysingfuturerisk05.

Taking

actionAnnex:Key

termsandconceptsEndnotes3CHILDRENThe

linkbetween

climatechangeanddisplacementiscomplex.

Yet

itisclearerthan

ever

thatthe

climateisshiftingpatterns

ofdisplacement.

AlthoughDISPLACEDIN

A

CHANGINGCLIMATE1weather

events,

suchas?oodsandstorms,arenatural

phenomenaanda

singleevent

cannotbedirectlyattributedtoclimatechange,thereiswidespreadconsensusthathuman-inducedclimatechangeisa?ecting

the

frequency,intensity,

geographicrange,duration,andtiming

of

extreme

weather

events.Therefore,

noweather

is

entirely‘natural’

anymore,

butrather

occursinthecontext

ofa

changingclimate.Large-scaledisasters,whichinthe

past,

occurredonly

occasionally,

arenow

morefrequent.Infact,

with

every

additional

onedegreeCelsius

ofwarming,the

globalrisks

ofdisplacementfrom?oodingareprojectedtoriseby

approximately

50percent.2Millions

ofchildrenarealreadybeingdrivenfromtheirhomesby

weather-related

events,

exacerbatedby

climatechange.Decisionstomove

canbeforcedandabruptintheface

ofdisaster,

ortheresult

ofpre-emptiveevacuation–wherelivesmay

besaved,

butmanychildrenstillfacethechallengesthatcomewithbeinguprootedfromtheirhomes.Inthecontext

ofslow-onsetclimateprocesses,displacementcanbedrivenby

aninterplay

ofsocio-economic,political,andclimate-relatedfactors.Decisionstomoveoftenoccurinacontext

ofconstrainedlife

choicesand

erodinglivelihoods,wherechildrenand

youngpeoplearetrappedbetweenaspirationsandhopes,adutyofcaretotheirfamiliesandcommunities,andpressurestoleave

home.Displacement–whethershort-lived

orprotracted–canmultiplyclimate-relatedrisksfor

childrenandtheirfamilies.Intheaftermath

ofadisaster,childrenmay

becomeseparatedfromtheirparents

orcaregivers,amplifyingtherisks

of

exploitation,childtra?cking,andabuse.Displacementcandisruptaccessto

educationandhealthcare,

exposingchildrentomalnutrition,disease,andinadequateimmunization.Furthermore

overcrowded

andunder-resourcedevacuationsitesmay

belocatedinclimate-vulnerableareas.4Ye

ttodate,childrendisplacedby

weather-related

events

have

beenstatisticallyinvisible.Existingdisplacementdataarerarelydisaggregatedby

age,andincontextswhere

extremeweather

events

collidewithrapidurbanization,fragilityandcon?ict,children

onthemove

are

even

morelikelytoslipthroughthecracksunnoticed.

Thelack

ofdatahampers

e?ortstoidentifychildrenmostatrisktohelpthemrecover,

thrive,andbuildresilienceagainstfutureclimate-relatedchallenges.CHILDRENDISPLACEDIN

A

CHANGINGCLIMATETo

shinealight

onthegrowingnumber

ofchildrendisplacedby

weather-related

events,whicharegrowinginintensityandfrequency,

andidentifythosemostatrisk,theUnitedNationsChildren’s

Fund

(UNICEF)andtheInternalDisplacementMonitoringCentre(IDMC),inpartnershipwiththePatrickJ.

McGovernFoundation,analysedpastchilddisplacementslinkedtoweather-related

disastersfrom2016–2021

and–based

onIDMC’s

riskmodel–

estimatedtherisk

ofchilddisplacementinfuture.The

report

analyses

themost

common

weather-related

hazardsthat

leadtothelargest

number

of

displacements:

?oods,

storms,

droughts

and

wild?res.Together,

thesehazards

account

for

over

99

per

cent

ofall

weather-relateddisplacements

recordedby

IDMC

since

2016,

whilehazardssuch

as

extreme

heat,erosion

and

landslides,

make

uptherest.

Due

tolack

of

available

data,

the

analysis3does

not

assessthe

fullrange

of

weather-related

events

that

cancontributetodisplacement–

particularly

in

relationto

slower-onset

climate

processes.Therefore,these

?ndingsrepresent

conservative

estimates,and

theactual

numbers

ofclimate-related

displacements

of

childrenare

likely

tobe

much

higher.These

new

insightscanhelpgovernments,

UnitedNationsagencies,civilsociety,

anda?ected

communities,toidentifychildrenatrisk

ofweather-relateddisplacement,mapthe

areasmosta?ected

andmostimportantly,

target

e?ortsandresourcestothe

mostvulnerable,withthe

aim

ofprotecting

children’sfutures

fromthe

impacts

ofdisplacementasthe

climatecontinuestochange.501.CHILDRENDISPLACEDIN

A

CHANGINGCLIMATETh

e

faces

ofchilddisplacement01.

The

faces

of

childdisplacement02.

Mappingdisaster-relateddisplacementsofchildrenDistressingimages

ofchildrenforcedto?eetheirhomesbecause

of

acute

weather-related

disasters,suchas?oods,stormsandwild?res,arebecomingincreasinglycommonplace.In

August2022,disastrous?oodscoverednearly

onethird

ofPakistan,causingbillions

ofdollarsindamagetocrops,housesand

otherbuildings,andseverelya?ectingthelives

of33millionpeople,many

ofwhomweredisplacedfromtheirhomes.4

Theconsequenceshave

been

especiallyhorri?cfor

children,many

ofwhomhave

beenleftwithoutsafe

drinkingwaterandarelivinginunsanitaryconditions.Meanwhile,

onanothercontinent,morethan280,000peoplewerea?ectedby

?oodsinSudan.Familieswereleftstrandedasalmost17,000

housesweredestroyedandanother44,000damaged.503.

Thehazards04.

Analysingfuturerisk05.

Taking

actionBACKTOCONTENTS6?

UNICEF/UN0716324/YusufAbdul’sstoryCHILDRENDISPLACEDIN

A

CHANGINGCLIMATEKhalid

Abdul

Azimisan

eighth-gradepupilatWadAl-Sha?eElementary

Schoolin

Sudan.Together

withhisfamily,Abdul

Azimspentseveralweekslivinginthe

openafterhisvillagewas

?ooded,followingheavyrains.“Iamgladweareback

inschool,

butthereisa

delayincompletingthecurriculum.

Bythistime,wewouldhavecompletedseveralunits,butwehavebarelycovered

oneortwo,”

saysAbdul

Azim.701.

The

faces

of

childdisplacement“We

movedourbelongingstothehighwaywherewelivedforweeks.

We

couldonlyaccessthevillageusingaboatformoreofourbelongings.Manyhousesweredamagedincludingours,”

says

Abdul

Azim.Like

Abdul

Azim,childrenlivinginmany

otherparts

oftheworldarefeelingtheimpacts

ofthechangingclimate.Those

inLatin

Americaand

the

Caribbean

areamongthemostvulnerableintheworldtobeingdrivenfromtheirhomesby

acuteweather-relateddisasters.From

2014

to2018,

3.4millionpeoplewereinternallydisplacedacrosstheCaribbeanduetoaseries

ofcatastrophictropicalcyclones.Whenstorms–suchashurricanesHarvey,

Irma,MariaandDorian–makelandfall,theycancausecatastrophicdamagetohomes,infrastructureand

economiesandleave

someareasvirtuallyuninhabitable.802.

Mappingdisaster-relateddisplacementsofchildren03.

ThehazardsNot

onlywas

hishomedestroyed,but

AbdulAzim’s

schoolwas

damaged,too.

About140,000school-agechildrenacross

Sudanwereunabletoaccesstheirschools

owingtothe?oods.

Thee?ects

ofthe?oodingremainedvisibleinschoolsacrossthecountryanddelayedthestartoftheschool

year.

Thegatesto

Abdul

Azim’sschool

openedinlateOctober,

afew

weeksafterthe

originallyscheduledstartdate.604.

Analysingfuturerisk05.

Taking

actionBACKTOCONTENTS7?

UNICEF

Sudan/2022Juana’sstoryCHILDRENDISPLACEDIN

A

CHANGINGCLIMATEIntheaftermath

ofhurricanesEtaandIota,nine-year-old

JuanaJenniferTzoywas

displacedfromherhomeinGuatemala

whenhertownwascompletelysubmergedinwater.

Juanamustnow

travelby

boattovisitcommunitiesaroundCampur,

wheresheusedtolivewithherfamily.Approximately310,000peoplewereforcedtoliveinsheltersacrossGuatemalafollowingthehurricanes,whichdevastated387,960

homesacrossthecountry.9ofbiodiversity,

oceanacidi?cation,salinizationandsealevelrisearealreadydrivingpeoplefromtheirhomesandwilllikely

haveanincreasinglygreaterimpactinthefuture.1101.

The

faces

of

childdisplacementFor

communitiesa?ectedby

thedroughtintheHorn

of

Africa,losingtheirlivestockandgrazingareasmeansthatmovingmay

nolonger

evenbean

option.12

Somalia

iswitnessingatwo-yearhistoricdryspell–asituationnotseeninmorethan40

years–andan

expected?fthfailedrainyseasonisprojectedtodisplacemanymorefamilies,withfaminelooming

onthehorizon.This

devastating

drought

reached

unprecedentedlevelsin2022,with1millionpeopleregisteredasdisplacedwithinthecountry.13

Thosewhocanstillmakeittofeedingstationsarethe‘luckyones’,

whilethosetrappedby

immobilitymay

bethemostvulnerable.02.

Mappingdisaster-relateddisplacementsofchildren03.

Thehazards04.

AnalysingfutureriskInfact,

weather-relatedhazards–

especially?oodsandstorms–

accountformost05.

Taking

actiondisplacementsrecorded,globally.10

Howeverdisplacementresultingfromacuteandlarge-scale

disasters

maybe

only

the

tip

of

the

iceberg.The

slow-onset

e?ects

of

climate

change,suchasdeserti?cation,glacialretreat,increasingtemperatures,landandforestdegradation,lossBACKTOCONTENTS8?

UNICEF/UN0377672/Billy/AFP-ServicesKhadijoandSabirin’s

storyCHILDRENDISPLACEDIN

A

CHANGINGCLIMATEKhadijoMohamedisamotherandfarmerfromDinsoor

Town

intheBay

region

of

Somalia.

Shesits

outsidehermakeshifttent

onthe

outskirtsofMogadishurecountingthejourneyshehasbeenforcedtotakeasherhomeregionteetersonthe

edge

offamine.“We

hopedforrainthenextyear,

butitalsobecamedrought.Itbecamethreeconsecutivedroughts.When

itbecamethreeconsecutivedroughts,weboardeda

carandleft.

Weenteredthetown,”

sherecounts.01.

The

faces

of

childdisplacement02.

Mappingdisaster-relateddisplacementsofchildrenThe

journeytoMogadishuwas

brutal.They

hadnofoodfor

seven

days

andallherchildrenfellsick.Her

youngest,two-year-old

Sabirin,becameseverelymalnourished.“We

werefarmersandusedtoliveacomfortable

lifeinourhousebecauseweplantedmaize,

beansandothercrops,andweusedtohavecowsthatwegotmilkfrombeforethedroughthit,”

Khadijo

explains.03.

Thehazards04.

AnalysingfutureriskSabirinwasone

of44,000childrenadmittedfor

treatmentfor

severeacutemalnutritionin

August2022.

The

explodingnumber

ofmalnutritioncasesmeansthat,currently,achildisadmittedtoahealthfacilityfor

severeacutemalnutrition

everyminute.1405.

Taking

actionLike

thousands

of

otherfamilies

across

Somalia,Khadijohaswatched

cropsfail,

livestock

perishandthecommunity’s

water

supplies

evaporate.She?edtoMogadishuinsearch

offood

andwater

for

herfour

youngest

children.BACKTOCONTENTS9?

UNICEF/UN0716323/YusufCHILDRENKhadijoandSabirin’s

storyDISPLACEDIN

A

CHANGINGCLIMATEIfunplannedandpoorlymanaged,large-scaledisplacement

events

like

the

onethatuprootedKhadijoandherfamily

riskaddingstresstoalreadyfragileplacesandheighteningtensionsaroundlandandwater

resources.Furthermore,

suddenandlargepopulationshiftstowards

lesshigh-riskareas,includingcitiesandurbanareas,canundermineplanning

e?orts

andsocialcohesion.lives.

This

shows

thatdisplacementisnotnecessarilya

negativeoutcome

ofdisasters,buttothecontrary,

canhave

protective

value.That

said,forevacuees

whosehousesareseverely

damaged

ordestroyed,

prolongeddisplacementcanincreasetheirvulnerability.Inrecent

years,

wild?resin

Australia,

GreeceandtheUnited

Stateshave

resultedinunprecedentednumbers

of

evacuations.

In2020,CycloneAmphantriggeredcloseto5million

evacuations

acrossBangladesh,

Bhutan,IndiaandMyanmar.15However,a

potentiallyworse

outcome

occurswhenchildrenandfamilies

arestrandedinplaceasa

result

ofpoverty,

age,disability,

orlegalbarriers,leaving

themhighly

exposed

andvulnerabletoincreasinglyhazardousclimaticconditions.01.

The

faces

of

childdisplacement02.

Mappingdisaster-relateddisplacementsofchildrenAs

Abdul

Azim,Juana,andKhadijoand

Sabirin’sstoriesillustrate,displacementcanhavesigni?cantsocialand

economicconsequencesfor

children,theirhostcommunitiesandthosewhobecometrappedinharm’s

way.

Theseimpactsvarybased

onresilienceandcapacitytocopeattheindividual,communityandnationallevels–aswellasthetypeandlengthofdisplacement.Without

accurateinformation,governmentsandcommunitiescannotFor

displacedchildrensuchas

Sabirin,unexpected,high-riskdisplacementwithoutearlywarningsystemscanresultinloss

oflife,interruptedaccesstocriticalcareandservices,and

elevatedprotectionrisks.03.

Thehazards04.

Analysingfuturerisk05.

Taking

actionHowever,

manyofthedisplacementsrecordedby

IDMCaretheresult

ofgovernment-ledevacuations.

Insuchsituations,

evacuationsarean

emergencymechanismtomoveadequatelyplanandpreparefororrespondtodisasters,

or

ensurethat

evacuationplansarechild-sensitiveandwelldevised.BACKTOCONTENTSpeople

out

ofharm’s

way

andcanhelpsave1002.CHILDRENDISPLACEDIN

A

CHANGINGCLIMATEMappingdisaster-relateddisplacementsofchildren01.Thefaces

ofchilddisplacement02.

Mappingdisaster-relateddisplacementsof

childrenHow

many

childrenhave

beendisplaced?Almost135

millioninternaldisplacementslinkedtomorethan8,000

weather-relateddisplacement

eventswererecordedbyIDMCbetween2016

and2021.

For

themostpart,thesedatawerechildblind,with

onlyaverysmallproportion

ofdata

ondisplacementsdisaggregatedby

ageandsex.03.

Thehazards04.

Analysingfuturerisk05.

Taking

actionTo

bridgethisgap,thisresearch

overlayed

theseinternaldisplacementdatapointswiththelatestdemographicgriddedpopulationdata,providinginsights

onwherethemostchildrenhave

beendisplaced–andaglimpseintothe

experience

ofchildren

onthemove

inclimatedisaster-a?ectedareas.BACKTOCONTENTS11?

UNICEF/UN0407051/Franco43.1million

internal

weather-related

displacementsof

children

over

the

lastsix

yearsCHILDRENBased

onthe

analysis,

therewere

43.1

millioninternal

displacements

of

children

linked

toweather-related

disasters

over

the

last

six

years–

the

equivalent

to

approximately

20,000

childdisplacements

per

day.implementpre-emptive

evacuationsintimes

ofdisaster,which,whenmanagedproperly,canbe

e?ectiveinsavinglives17

andmitigatingthedamagecausedby

displacement.*DISPLACEDIN

A

CHANGINGCLIMATEAs

the

datadonotdistinguishbetween

pre-emptive

evacuation

anddisplacementinAlmost

all

–

95

per

cent

–

of

recorded

childdisplacements

were

driven

by

?oods

andstorms.

These

comprised19.7

millionchilddisplacementsdueto?oodsand21.2

millionduetostormsbetween

2016

and2021.responsetodisaster,

itisunclearhow

many

ofthese

children

were

in

fact

evacuees.

Pre-emptiveevacuations

aremorelikely

tobeimplemented(andrecorded)for

?oodsandmajorstormssuchascyclones,

typhoonsandhurricanes–

andincountrieswith

e?ective

earlywarning,disasterriskreduction(DRR)anddatasystems

inplace.20,000child

displacementsper

dayWherewere

childrenmosta?ected?95%However,

whenwe

lookatthegreatestnumberofdisplacementsrelativetothesize

ofthechildpopulation,averydi?erentpicture

emerges.The

research?ndingstelltwo

very

di?erentstories.Three

countriesdominatetheresultsbased

onabsolutenumbers:the

Philippines,India

andChina,

witha

combinedtotal

ofalmost23millionchilddisplacementsduetoweather-related

events

between

2016

and

2021.

There

were9.7millionchilddisplacementsinthePhilippinesalone,6.7millioninIndiaand6.4millioninChina.Inadditiontotheirlocationsandgeographicpro?lesbeingproneto?oodsandstorms,thesecountries’

sizes

andpopulationsalsohelp

explainthe

largenumbers

ofdisplacements.of

recorded

childdisplacements

due

toweather-related

eventswere

driven

by

?oodsand

storms01.Thefaces

ofchilddisplacementSouth

Sudan

andSomaliaexperiencedthegreatestnumber

ofchilddisplacementsfrom?oodsrelativetothesize

oftheirchildpopulation,

equivalenttoabout12

percentinSouth

Sudanand11

percentin

Somalia.Bothcountriesimplementandrecordfar

fewer

pre-emptive

evacuations,suggestingthatchildrenlivinginthesecountriesmay

be

even

morevulnerabletodisplacementrisk.

SmallIslandDeveloping

StatesandcountriesintheHorn

ofAfricahave

hadthegreatestproportion

oftheirchildpopulationdisplaced.Dominica,SaintMartin

(French

part),Sint

Maarten

(Dutchpart),the

Northern

Mariana

Islands,Cuba

and02.

Mappingdisaster-relateddisplacementsof

children03.

Thehazards04.

Analysingfuturerisk05.

Taking

actionWhilethePhilippines,IndiaandChinaareathighrisk

ofweather-relateddisasters–andmay

becomeincreasinglysoastheimpacts

ofclimatechangeintensify16

–allthreecountriesBACKTOCONTENTS*

Itisimportanttonotethatlivessaved

bymovingoutofharm’s

wayarealsoregularlylostasa

resultofchaoticmassevacuationsanddirelivingconditionsinevacuationcentresortemporaryshelters.Overcrowding,lackofprivacyandpoorhygienearejustsomeofthecommonlyencounteredchallengeschildreninevacuationcentresface.12CHILDRENVanuatu

recordedthemostchilddisplacementsfromstormsrelativetothesize

oftheirchildpopulations.InDominica,thenumber

ofdisplacements

ofchildren

over

thelastsixyearswasequivalentto76percent

ofthechildpopulation,whileinCuba,itwas

31percent.Suchlargeproportions

ofthechildpopulationexperiencingdisplacementhassigni?cantimplicationsfor

how

healthcare,

educationandprotectionservicesfor

childrenmustberun.Droughtconditionscanintensifydisputes

overscarceresources,reduce

economic

opportunitiesandstrainpublicinstitutionsandinfrastructure–andincountriesa?ected

by

fragilityandcon?ict,andwithpoordatacollectionandmonitoringcapacities,displacementscanbe

evenmoredi?culttomeasure.18DISPLACEDIN

A

CHANGINGCLIMATEFinally,

theanalysis

ofdisplacementscausedbywild?reillustratedthatweather-relateddisastersexacerbatedby

thechangingclimatea?ectlow-

andhigh-incomecountriesalike.Wild?restriggered810,000newchilddisplacements,withmorethanathird

occurringin2020alone.

TheUnited

States,Canada

andIsrael,whichallhave

robust

earlywarningandDRRsystems,aswellasstrongdatasystemsinplace,recordedthemostchilddisplacements,many

ofwhichwerepre-emptive

evacuations.Droughtstriggeredmorethan1.

3

millioninternaldisplacements

ofchildrenacross15countriesbetween

2016

and2021.

Morethanhalf–

730,000–

were

recordedin

Somalia,withanother340,000

inEthiopia

and190,000inAfghanistan.

Unlike

inthe?oodsandstormsanalysis,

thedata

ondroughtsshow

mostlyactual

displacementsasa

consequence

ofthedisaster.

Pre-emptiveevacuations

indroughtcontexts

are

extremely

rare,soitislikely

themajority

ofthesedisplacements

occurredwithout

earlywarnings

and

e?orts

tominimizetheimpacts

ofdisplacement.01.Thefaces

ofchilddisplacementLooking

atpastdisplacementtrends,severaldi?erent

countrytypologiescomeintofocus:Somecountriesareathighrisk

ofweather-relateddisasters–

whichmay

grow

infrequencyandintensityasthe

climatechanges–

butaretakingmeasurestominimize

displacementrisk.Others,where

disaster

risk

is

high,

but

pre-emptiveevacuations

are

few

and

far

between,

arewhere

children

and

their

communities

may

bemost

vulnerable.

Itisinthesecountries,whereriskmitigation,adaptationandpreparedness

–including

embracingpre-emptive

evacuations

andotherclimatemobility

optionstosave

lives

andminimize

any

disruption

tochildren’s

accesstoessentialservices–willbemostcritical.02.

Mappingdisaster-relateddisplacementsof

children03.

ThehazardsThisanalysiscomeswitha

caveat–slow-onset

displacement

due

to

events

likedroughts

is

likely

radically

underreported.Thereiscurrentlynoglobal

estimation

oftheleveloffuturedisplacementassociatedwithslow-onsetdisastersandthedataforhistoricaldisplacementsrelatedtodroughtsareincomplete.Further,

displacementlinkedtoslow-onsetdisastersis

oftendrivenby

a

combinationofaspirationsandsocio-economicfactors.04.

Analysingfuturerisk05.

Taking

actionBACKTOCONTENTS13ESTIMATED

NUMBEROFDISPLACEMENTSBY

HAZARD

TYPEBETWEEN2

016

AND2021CHILDRENDISPLACEDIN

A

CHANGINGCLIMATESTORMS69.7

MILLION58.4

MILLION2.621.2

MILLION19.7

MILLION1.3FLOODSHAZARDTYPE01.Thefaces

ofchilddisplacementDROUGHTSMILLIONMILLION02.

Mappingdisaster-relateddisplacementsof

children03.

Thehazards04.

AnalysingfutureriskWILDFIRES3.4

MILLION0.8

MILLION05.

Taking

action134.1

MILLION43.1

MILLIONTOTALTOTAL

DISPLACEMENTSCHILD

DISPLACEMENTSBACKTOCONTENTSNote:Total

displacementnumbers(allages)asreportedbyIDMCinitsGlobal

Internal

Displacement

Database.

Childdisplacementnumbersestimatedbasedonlocationofdisasters(IDMCdatabase)andthecorrespondingproportionofchildreninthepopulationforthatlocation(WorldPop).The

totalsmaynotexactlymatchthesumofthevaluesshownowingtorou